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1.
New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
FAN Ke Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(9):1417-1423
In this paper, the impacts of the atmospheric circulation during boreal winter-spring on the western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon frequency (WNPTF) are studied. Several new factors in winter-spring in- fluencing the typhoon frequency were identified, including the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the North Pacific oscillation. Based on these results, the multi-linear regression was applied to establishing a new forecast model for the typhoon frequency by using the datasets of 1965―1999. The forecast model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.79) between the model simulated and the actual typhoon frequencies in the period of 1965―1999. The forecast model also exhibits reasonable hindcasts for the typhoon frequencies for the years 2000―2006. Therefore, this work demonstrates that the new pre- dictors are significant for the prediction of the interannual variability of the WNPTF, which could be potentially used in the operational seasonal forecast of the typhoon frequency in the WNP to get a more physically based operational prediction model and higher forecast skill. 相似文献
2.
XianMei Lang 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2008,51(5):709-720
It is of great social and scientific importance and also very difficult to make reliable prediction for dust weather frequency (DWF) in North China. In this paper, the correlation between spring DWF in Beijing and Tianjin observation stations, taken as examples in North China, and seasonally averaged surface air temperature, precipitation, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, South Oscillation, near surface meridional wind and Eurasian westerly index is respectively calculated so as to construct a prediction model for spring DWF in North China by using these climatic factors. Two prediction models, i.e. model-I and model-II, are then set up respectively based on observed climate data and the 32-year (1970 -2001) extra-seasonal hindcast experiment data as reproduced by the nine-level Atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP9L-AGCM). It is indicated that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted DWF reaches 0.933 in the model-I, suggesting a high prediction skill one season ahead. The corresponding value is high up to 0.948 for the subsequent model-II, which involves synchronous spring climate data reproduced by the IAP9L-AGCM relative to the model-I. The model-II can not only make more precise prediction but also can bring forward the lead time of real-time prediction from the model-I’s one season to half year. At last, the real-time predictability of the two models is evaluated. It follows that both the models display high prediction skill for both the interannual variation and linear trend of spring DWF in North China, and each is also featured by different advantages. As for the model-II, the prediction skill is much higher than that of original approach by use of the IAP9L-AGCM alone. Therefore, the prediction idea put forward here should be popularized in other regions in China where dust weather occurs frequently. 相似文献
3.
North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency? 总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13
Fan Ke 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(8):1251-1257
The relationship between the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the typhoon frequency has been studied in this paper. It follows that the index for the sea ice cover in the North Pacific (ISA) both in December-January-February (DJF) and in March-April-May (MAM) is negatively correlated with annual typhoon number over the western North Pacific (TNWNP) during 1965―2004, with correlation coeffi-cients of -0.42 and -0.49 respectively (above 99% significant level). Large sea ice cover in the North Pacific tends to decrease TNWNP. Positive ISA (MAM) is associated with the tropical circulation and SST anomalies in the North Pacific, which may lead to unfavorable dynamic and thermal conditions for typhoon genesis over WNP from June to October (JJASO). The variability of the atmospheric circula-tion over the North Pacific, associated with the ISA anomaly in MAM is connected to the tropical at-mospheric circulation variability in MAM via the teleconnection wave train. Besides, as the tropical circulation has strong seasonal persistency from the MAM to JJASO, thus, the ISA in MAM-related variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation as well as the SST can affect the typhoon activity over the western North Pacific. 相似文献
4.
利用近50年华北地区26个站逐月降水观测资料和全球大气海洋分析资料,分析了华北降水的年代际变化特征及其和全球海气系统年代际变化的关系.对华北降水距平指数变化分析表明,近50年来华北降水具有减少的总体趋势,叠加在该趋势之上的是年代际变化,其中1965年和1980年发生了两次跃变,使得20世纪80年代干旱尤为严重.在对华北地区降水年代际变化特征分析的基础上,揭示了与华北降水年代际异常相伴随的大气环流和上层海洋热力异常型.结果表明,华北降水年代际异常与太平洋上层海洋热力状况异常有显著关系,主要表现为太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）与华北降水异常的相关.在年代际时间尺度上,华北干旱与上层海洋热力及大气环流异常的配置关系如下：当华北地区干旱时,则热带中东太平洋海温偏高,北太平洋中部海温偏低,即太平洋上主要表现为PDO暖位相,全球大部分地区（包括华北地区）气温偏高,青藏高原地区气温偏低,日本北部及东西伯利亚气压异常偏低,华北及其以南大片地区气压偏高,华北地区由异常西北风控制,不利于水汽向华北地区输送. 相似文献
5.
短期气候预测中如何将气候模式和统计方法的预测结果科学、客观的集成起来,一直是非常重要的问题.本文针对动力模式和统计方法预测结果相结合的问题,引入资料同化中信息融合的思想,采用最优内插同化方法,实现了动力模式和统计季节降水预测结果的融合.检验表明,对1982-2015年我国夏季降水百分率的回报,融合预测结果与观测的平均空间相关系数可达0.44,分别较统计预测和CFSv2模式统计降尺度订正的技巧提高了0.1左右,而均方根误差较两者可以降低5%~20%.可见,该方法可以进一步提升对我国夏季降水的预测技巧,具有显著的业务应用价值. 相似文献
6.
Because atmosphere itself is a nonlinear system and there exist some problems using the linearized equations to study the initial error growth, in this paper we try to use the error nonlinear growth theory to discuss its evolution, based on which we first put forward a new concept: nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent. It is quite different from the classic Lyapunov exponent because it may characterize the finite time error local average growth and its value depends on the initial condition, initial error, variables, evolution time, temporal and spatial scales. Based on its definition and the at-mospheric features, we provide a reasonable algorithm to the exponent for the experimental data, obtain the atmospheric initial error growth in finite time and gain the maximal prediction time. Lastly, taking 500 hPa height field as example, we discuss the application of the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent in the study of atmospheric predictability and get some reliable results: atmospheric predictability has a distinct spatial structure. Overall, predictability shows a zonal distribution. Prediction time achieves the maximum over tropics, the second near the regions of Antarctic, it is also longer next to the Arctic and in subtropics and the mid-latitude the predictability is lowest. Particularly speaking, the average prediction time near the equation is 12 days and the maximum is located in the tropical Indian, Indonesia and the neighborhood, tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, on these regions the prediction time is about two weeks. Antarctic has a higher predictability than the neighboring latitudes and the prediction time is about 9 days. This feature is more obvious on Southern Hemispheric summer. In Arctic, the predictability is also higher than the one over mid-high latitudes but it is not pronounced as in Antarctic. Mid-high latitude of both Hemispheres (30°S―60°S, 30°―60°N) have the lowest predictability and the mean prediction time is just 3―4 d. In addition, predictability varies with the seasons. Most regions in the Northern Hemisphere, the predictability in winter is higher than that in summer, especially in the mid-high latitude: North Atlantic, North Pacific and Greenland Island. However in the Southern Hemisphere, near the Antarctic regions (60°S―90°S), the corresponding summer has higher predictability than its winter, while in other areas especially in the latitudes of 30°S―60°S, the prediction does not change obviously with the seasons and the average time is 3―5 d. Both the theoretical and data computation results show that nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and the nonlinear local error growth really may measure the predictability of the atmospheric variables in different temporal and spatial scales. 相似文献
7.
Three tree-ring rainfall reconstructions from China and Korea are used in this paper to investigate the East Asian summer
monsoon-related precipitation variation over the past 160 years. Statistically, there is no linear correlation on a year-by-year
basis between Chinese and Korean monsoon rainfall, but region-wide synchronous variation on a decadal-scale was observed.
More rainfall intervals were 1860–1890, 1910–1925, and 1940–1960, and dry or even drought periods were 1890–1910, 1925–1940,
and 1960–present. Reconstructions also display that the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation suddenly changed from more
into less around mid-1920. These tree-ring precipitation records were also confirmed by Chinese historical dryness/wetness
index and Korean historical rain gauge data. 相似文献
8.
本文利用法国国家科研中心(CNRS)动力气象实验室(LMD)发展的可变网格的格点大气环流模式LMDZ4,对1998年东亚夏季降水进行了模拟,考查了变网格模式对东亚夏季降水的模拟性能.结果表明,模式在一定程度上能模拟出东亚夏季降水的极大值中心、夏季风雨带以及降水由东南向西北递减的空间分布特征.模式基本再现了1998年夏季两次雨带的进退特征,包括降水强度、雨带范围等,从而合理再现了1998年夏季江淮地区的"二度梅"现象.与观测相比,模拟的不足在于:在陡峭地形区附近存在虚假降水;江淮和华北地区以及四川盆地存在水汽输送的气旋式辐合偏差,同时高层环流辐散偏强,使得下层暖湿空气辐合上升、降水偏多;在东南地区存在反气旋式的水汽输送偏差,30°N以南地区降水偏少.对于1998年的"二度梅"现象,模拟偏差主要表现为长江中下游地区两次(特别是第二次)较强降水持续时间偏短,强降水范围偏小,而黄淮和华南地区却降水偏多.分析表明,模式对两次梅雨期降水的模拟偏差直接受环流形势模拟偏差的影响.LMDZ4区域模式版本的特点一是区域加密,二是加密区内预报场每10天向再分析资料恢复一次.敏感试验结果表明,LMDZ4加密区向强迫场的10天尺度恢复总体上有利于提高模式对华北降水的模拟能力,而对长江流域和华南降水的模拟具有不利影响.较之均匀网格模拟试验,加密试验由于在东亚的分辨率大大提高,对东亚夏季降水模拟效果更好. 相似文献
9.
利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟实验室研发的全球海洋－大气－陆面过程气候系统耦合模式（IAP/LASG GOALS 40）,对比分析了考虑和不考虑气候的外强迫因子（太阳活动、温室气体及硫酸盐气溶胶）变化对2003年夏季中国区域的短期气候预测的影响.结果发现,由于外强迫因子变化的影响,模式模拟的中国区域2003年夏季降水距平的分布比不考虑这种变化时更接近实况,它有效地改善了无外强迫变化时模式模拟预测的中国区域降水不真实偏大的缺点,使一些地区的模拟降水量值减小,范围扩大,位置北抬.更重要的是,由于考虑了外强迫的变化,GOALS耦合模式很好地模拟出了2003年夏季淮河流域较大的降水正距平区,同时相应的500 hPa环流场的模拟也有较大的改进. 相似文献
10.
Orissa State, a meteorological subdivision of India, lies on the east coast of India close to north Bay of Bengal and to the
south of the normal position of the monsoon trough. The monsoon disturbances such as depressions and cyclonic storms mostly
develop to the north of 15° N over the Bay of Bengal and move along the monsoon trough. As Orissa lies in the southwest sector
of such disturbances, it experiences very heavy rainfall due to the interaction of these systems with mesoscale convection
sometimes leading to flood. The orography due to the Eastern Ghat and other hill peaks in Orissa and environs play a significant
role in this interaction. The objective of this study is to develop an objective statistical model to predict the occurrence
and quantity of precipitation during the next 24 hours over specific locations of Orissa, due to monsoon disturbances over
north Bay and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal based on observations to up 0300 UTC of the day. A probability of precipitation
(PoP) model has been developed by applying forward stepwise regression with available surface and upper air meteorological
parameters observed in and around Orissa in association with monsoon disturbances during the summer monsoon season (June-September).
The PoP forecast has been converted into the deterministic occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation forecast using the critical
value of PoP. The parameters selected through stepwise regression have been considered to develop quantitative precipitation
forecast (QPF) model using multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) for categorical prediction of precipitation in different ranges
such as 0.1–10, 11–25, 26–50, 51–100 and >100 mm if the occurrence of precipitation is predicted by PoP model. All the above
models have been developed based on data of summer monsoon seasons of 1980–1994, and data during 1995–1998 have been used
for testing the skill of the models. Considering six representative stations for six homogeneous regions in Orissa, the PoP
model performs very well with percentages of correct forecast for occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation being about 96%
and 88%, respectively for developmental and independent data. The skill of the QPF model, though relatively less, is reasonable
for lower ranges of precipitation. The skill of the model is limited for higher ranges of precipitation.
accepted September 2006 相似文献
11.
In the region southeast of Okinawa, during May to July 2001, a cyclonic and an anticyclonic eddy were observed from combined measurements of hydrocasts, an upward-looking moored acoustic Doppler current profiler (MADCP), pressure-recording inverted echo sounders (PIESs), satellite altimetry, and a coastal tide gauge. The hydrographic data showed that the lowest/highest temperature (T) and salinity (S) anomalies from a 13-year mean for the same season were respectively -3.0/ 2.5℃ and -0.20/ 0.15 psu at 380/500 dbar for the cyclonic/anticyclonic eddies. From the PIES data, using a gravest empirical mode method, we estimated time-varying surface dynamic height (D) anomaly referred to 2000 dbar changing from -20 to 30 cm, and time-varying T and S anomalies at 500 dbar ranging through about ±2 ℃ and ±0.2 psu, respectively. The passage of the eddies caused variations of both satellite-measured sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and tide-gauge-measured sea level anomaly to change from about –20 to 30 cm, consistent with the D anomaly from the PIESs. Bottom pressure sensors measured no variation related to these eddy activities, which indicated that the two eddies were dominated by baro-clinicity. Time series of SSHA map confirmed that the two eddies, originating from the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent region near 20°―30°N and 150°―160°E, traveled about 3000 km for about 18 months with mean westward propagation speed of about 6 cm/s, before arriving at the region southeast of Okinawa Island. 相似文献
12.
Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the typhoon as well as hurricane fre-quencies are documented. The correlation between NPO index in June-July-August-September and the annual typhoon number in the western North Pacific is 0.37 for the period of 1949―1998. The NPO is correlated with the annual hurricane number in the tropical Atlantic at -0.28 for the same period. The variability of NPO is found to be concurrent with the changes of the magnitude of vertical zonal wind shear, sea-level pressure patterns, as well as the sea surface temperature, which are physically asso- ciated with the typhoons and hurricanes genesis. The NPO associated atmospheric circulation vari- ability is analyzed to explain how NPO is linked with variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation in the western Pacific and the tropical Atlantic, via the atmospheric teleconnection. 相似文献
13.
QI-QI L 《地震学报(英文版)》2000,13(2):203-209
This paper used the thermal infrared data of the satellite NOAA-AAVHRR of the north part of North China (113°～119° E, 38°～42° N), and processed the remote sensing data through radiation adjustment, geometric adjustment and so on by the software ＂The Monitoring and Fast Process System of Earthquake Precursor Thermal Infrared Anomaly＂, inversed the earth surface temperature. Some disturbances effect had been excluded, and thermal infrared temperature anomaly had been extracted by the picture difference method. The Zhangbei MS=6.2 earthquake is used as the example in the paper, so that in the paper thermal infrared characteristics on time-space before earthquake and the relationship between the anomaly and the earthquake prediction have been summarized.Within more than ten days before the Zhangbei earthquake, the thermal infrared anomaly had emerged widely along Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic belt, and the anomalous region seemed like a belt and it is also consistent with the tectonic background there; the anomaly expanded from the outside toward the earthquake focus, but the focus lay at the edge of the thermal infrared region. So it is possible to explore a new anomaly observation method for earthquake prediction by observing and studying the satellite thermal infrared anomaly before big earthquakes happen. 相似文献
14.
The mixing of seawater/hydrothermal fluid within the large seafloor hydrothermal sulfide deposits plays a key role in the
formation processes of the sulfide deposits. Some issues attract considerable attentions in the study of seafloor hydrothermal
system in recent years, such as the relationships among different types of vent fluids, the characteristics of chemical compositions
and mineral assemblages of the hydrothermal deposits and their governing factors. Combined with the measured data of hydrothermal
fluid in the TAG field, the thermodynamic model of mixing processes of the heated seawater at different temperatures and the
hydrothermal fluid is calculated to understand the precipitation mechanism of anhydrite and the genetic relationships between
the black and white smoker fluids within the TAG mound. The results indicate that the heating of seawater and the mixing of
hydrothermal fluid/seawater are largely responsible for anhydrite precipitation and the temperature of the heated seawater
is not higher than 150°C and the temperature of the end-member hydrothermal fluid is not lower than 400°C. Based on the simulated
results, the evolving patterns of fluids within the TAG deposit are discussed. The mixed fluid of the end-member hydrothermal
fluid and the seawater heated by wall rock undergoes conductive cooling during upflowing within the deposit and forms “White
Smoker” eventually. In addition, the end-member hydrothermal fluid without mixed with seawater, but undergoing conductive
cooling, vents out of the deposit and forms “Black Smoker”.
Supported by China Ocean Mineral Resources Research and Development Association Program (Grant No. DY115-02-1-01) and National
Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. G2000078503) 相似文献
15.
Wang XiaoYuan Zeng ZhiGang Liu ChangHua Yin XueBo Yu ShaoXiong Yuan ChunWei Zhang GuoLiang Wang XiaoMei 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(9):1433-1440
During the DY105-12, 14cruise (R/V DAYANG YIHAO, November 2003) on East Pacific Rise (EPR) 12- 13°N, the submarine hydrothermal activity was investigated and the CTD hydrocast was carried out at EPR12°39′N-12°54′N. From the temperature anomalies and the concentrations of magnesium, chlorine, bromine in seawater samples, we discover that magnesium depletes 9.3%-22.4%, chlorine and bro- mine enrich 10.3%-28.7% and 10.7%-29.0% respectively relative to normal seawater at the stations which have chemistry anomalies, moreover temperature and chemistry anomalies are at the same layer. The depletion of magnesium in the plume may be caused by a fluid lacking of magnesium which rises after the hydrothermal fluid reaches the equilibrium with ambient seawater, the enrichment of chlorine and bromine might be the result of inputting later brine which is generated by phase separation due to hydrothermal activity. In addition, the Br/Cl ratio in the abnormal layers at the survey area is identical to that in seawater, which implies that halite dissolution (or precipitation) occurs neither when the fluid is vented nor when hydrothermal fluid entraining ambient seawater rises to form plume. From the ab- normal instance at E55 station, it is very possible that there might exist a new hydrothermal vent site. 相似文献
16.
Extreme climate events,migration for cultivation and policies:A case study in the early Qing Dynasty of China 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
FANG XiuQi YE Yu & ZENG ZaoZao School of Geography Beijing Normal University Beijing China Institute of Geographical Sciences Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(3):411-421
Based on the historical records of the annual increase in the workforce (men older than 16 years of age), the annual new taxed cropland in the Shengjing area (Northeast China), the extreme climate events in North China, and related management policies in Northeast China during 1661―1680, a case study has been conducted to investigate the relationship between the extreme climate events in North China and the migration to Northeast China for cultivation. This study has found that the migration to Northeast China for cultivation from 1661 to 1680 was a response to the drought events that occurred in North China. The upsurge of migration, which occurred in 1665―1680, was a response to the drought period during 1664―1680 in North China while the fewer disasters period in Northeast China. There were three migratory peaks during the upsurge of migration, which corresponded to the three drought events. The peaks of migration, however, often lagged behind the drought events about 1―2 years. The encourag-ing-migration policy, which was adopted to encourage cultivation in Northeast China, did not produce much migration into the region in the early Qing Dynasty. It did, however, provide a policy background, which ensured more than 10000 migrants per year to Northeast China when North China suffered from drought/flood disasters. As a response to the highest peak of migration induced by the severe droughts in North China during 1664―1667, a prohibiting-migration policy restricted further migration to Northeast China was carried out in 1668. Although the prohibiting-migration policy could not entirely stop the migrants fleeing from famine in North China to Northeast China, the migrants and cultivation were significantly reduced under the policy. The frequent changes of the policy on the years when taxation started after the land was cultivated were also related to climate events. The extreme climate events in North China, migration to Northeast China for cultivation, and the related management poli-cies showed an impact-response chain, which reflected the interaction among extreme climate events, human behavior, and policies. 相似文献
17.
Zhaohui Lin Jason K. Levy Xingkui Xu Sixiong Zhao Jens Hartmann 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(6):428-437
This paper describes the use of numerical weather and climate models for predicting severe rainfall anomalies over the Yangtze
River Basin (YRB) from several days to several months in advance. Such predictions are extremely valuable, allowing time for
proactive flood protection measures to be taken. Specifically, the dynamical climate prediction system (IAP DCP-II), developed
by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP), is applied to YRB rainfall prediction and flood
planning. IAP DCP-II employs ensemble prediction with dynamically conditioned perturbations to reduce the uncertainty associated
with seasonal climate prediction. IAP DCP-II was shown to successfully predict seasonal YRB summer flooding events based on
a 15-year (1980–1994) hindcast experiment and the real-time prediction of two summer flooding events (1999 and 2001). Finally,
challenges and opportunities for applying seasonal dynamical forecasting to flood management problems in the YRB are discussed. 相似文献
18.
QiuMing Yang 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2009,52(10):1485-1501
Based on the observational data in summer, the variations of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of the daily rainfall over the
lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (LYRV) were studied by using the non-integer spectrum analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
data for the period of 1979–2005 were analyzed by principal oscillation pattern analysis (POP) to investigate the spatial
and temporal characteristics of principal ISO patterns of the global circulation. The relationships of these ISO patterns
to the rainfall ISO and the heavy precipitation process over LYRV were also discussed. It is found that the rainfall over
LYRV in May–August is mainly of periodic oscillations of 10–20, 20–30 and 60–70 days, and the interannual variation of the
intensity of its 20–30-day oscillation has a strongly positive correlation with the number of the heavy precipitation process.
Two modes (POP1, POP2) are revealed by POP for the 20–30-day oscillation of the global 850 hPa geopotential height. One is
a circumglobal teleconnection wave train in the middle latitude of the Southern Hemisphere (SCGT) with an eastward propagation,
and the other is the southward propagation pattern in the tropical western Pacific (TWP). The POP modes explain 7.72% and
7.66% of the variance, respectively. These two principal ISO patterns are closely linked to the low frequency rainfall and
heavy precipitation process over LYRV, in which the probability for the heavy precipitation process over LYRV is 54.9% and
60.4% for the positive phase of the imaginary part of POP1 and real part of POP2, respectively. Furthermore, the models of
the global atmospheric circulation for the 20–30-day oscillation in association with or without the heavy precipitation process
over LYRV during the Northern Hemisphere summer are set up by means of the composite analysis method. Most of the heavy precipitation
processes over LYRV appear in Phase 4 of SCGT or Phase 6 of TWP. When the positive phases of 20–30-day oscillations for the
rainfall over LYRV are associated with (without) the heavy precipitation process, a strong westerly stream appears (disappears)
from the Arabian Sea via India and Bay of Bengal (BOB) to southern China and LYRV for the global 850 hPa filtered wind field
during Phase 4 of SCGT. This situation is favorable (unfavorable) for the forming of the heavy precipitation process over
LYRV. Similarly, a strong (weak) western wind belt forms from India through BOB to southern China and LYRV and the subtropical
northwestern Pacific and central and eastern equatorial Pacific during Phase 6 of TWP for the cases with (without) the heavy
precipitation process. The evolutions of these ISO patterns related to the 20–30-day oscillation are excited by either the
interaction of extratropical circulation in both hemispheres or the heat source forcing in Asia monsoon domain and internal
interaction of circulation in East Asia. These two global circulation models might therefore provide valuable information
for the extended-range forecastof the heavy precipitation process over LYRV during the 10–30 days. 相似文献
19.
A broadband seismic array of 7 stations was set up in the western Dabie Mountains (31°20′-31°50′N, 114°30′-115°E). Teleseismic events from May 2001 to November 2001 were collected and analyzed by radial receiver function to determine the S-wave velocity structure of the crust and uppermost mantle. The crustal thickness is 32-38 km beneath the array. The crust-mantle boundary appears as a gently north-dipping velocity discontinuity, but turns to be a velocity gradient beneath a station near the Qiliping shea... 相似文献
20.
利用1979-2009年NCEP第二套大气再分析资料和ERSST海温资料,分析南海夏季风爆发时间的年际和年代际变化特征,考察南海夏季风爆发早晚与南大洋海温之间的联系.主要结果为:(1)南海夏季风爆发时间年际和年代际变化明显,1979-1993年与1994-2009年前后两个阶段爆发时间存在阶段性突变;(2)南海夏季风爆发时间与前期冬季(12-1月)印度洋-南大洋(0-80°E,75°S-50°S)海温、春季(2-3月)太平洋-南大洋(170°E -80°W,75°S-50°S)海温都存在正相关关系,当前期冬、春季南大洋海温偏低(高)时,南海夏季风爆发偏早(晚).南大洋海温信号,无论是年际还是年代际变化,都对南海夏季风爆发具有一定的预测指示作用;(3)南大洋海温异常通过海气相互作用和大气遥相关影响南海夏季风爆发的迟早.当南大洋海温异常偏低(偏高)时,冬季南极涛动偏强(偏弱),同时通过遥相关作用使热带印度洋-西太平洋地区位势高度偏低(偏高)、纬向风加强(减弱),热带大气这种环流异常一直维持到春季4、5月份,位势高度和纬向风异常范围逐步向北扩展并伴随索马里越赤道气流的加强(减弱),从而为南海夏季风爆发偏早(偏晚)提供有利的环流条件.初步分析认为,热带大气环流对南大洋海气相互作用的遥响应与半球际大气质量重新分布引起的南北涛动有关. 相似文献