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1.
In this study the observed non-linearity in the spatial pattern and time evolution of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is analyzed. It is shown that ENSO skewness is not only a characteristic of the amplitude of events (El Niños being stronger than La Niñas) but also of the spatial pattern and time evolution. It is demonstrated that these non-linearities can be related to the non-linear response of the zonal winds to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. It is shown in observations as well as in coupled model simulations that significant differences in the spatial pattern between positive (El Niño) versus negative (La Niña) and strong versus weak events exist, which is mostly describing the difference between central and east Pacific events. Central Pacific events tend to be weak El Niño or strong La Niña events. In turn east Pacific events tend to be strong El Niño or weak La Niña events. A rotation of the two leading empirical orthogonal function modes illustrates that for both El Niño and La Niña extreme events are more likely than expected from a normal distribution. The Bjerknes feedbacks and time evolution of strong ENSO events in observations as well as in coupled model simulations also show strong asymmetries, with strong El Niños being forced more strongly by zonal wind than by thermocline depth anomalies and are followed by La Niña events. In turn strong La Niña events are preceded by El Niño events and are more strongly forced by thermocline depth anomalies than by wind anomalies. Further, the zonal wind response to sea surface temperature anomalies during strong El Niño events is stronger and shifted to the east relative to strong La Niña events, supporting the eastward shifted El Niño pattern and the asymmetric time evolution. Based on the simplified hybrid coupled RECHOZ model of ENSO it can be shown that the non-linear zonal wind response to SST anomalies causes the asymmetric forcings of ENSO events. This also implies that strong El Niños are mostly wind driven and less predictable and strong La Niñas are mostly thermocline depth driven and better predictable, which is demonstrated by a set of 100 perfect model forecast ensembles. 相似文献
2.
A high-resolution (T213) coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) has been used to examine the relationship between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). The model simulates ENSO-like events similar to those observed, though the amplitude of the simulated Niño34 sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is twice as large as observed. In El Niño (La Niña) years, the annual number of model TCs in the southeast quadrant of the WNP increases (decreases), while it decreases (increases) in the northwest quadrant. In spite of the significant difference in the mean genesis location of model TCs between El Niño and La Niña years, however, there is no significant simultaneous correlation between the annual number of model TCs over the entire WNP and model Niño34 SST anomalies. The annual number of model TCs, however, tends to decrease in the years following El Niño, relating to the development of anticyclonic circulation around the Philippine Sea in response to the SST anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, it seems that the number of model TCs tends to increase in the years before El Niño. It is also shown that the number of TCs moving into the East Asia is fewer in October of El Niño years than La Niña years, related to the anomalous southward shift of mid-latitude westerlies, though no impact of ENSO on TC tracks is found in other months. It is found that model TCs have longer lifetimes due to the southeastward shift of mean TC genesis location in El Niño years than in La Niña years. As the result of longer fetch of TCs over warm SST, model TCs appear to be more intense in El Niño years. These relationships between ENSO and TC activity in the WNP are in good agreement with observational evidence, suggesting that a finer-resolution CGCM may become a powerful tool for understanding interannual variability of TC activity. 相似文献
3.
Two types of analyses are used to investigate the synoptic wind-driven flushing of Tampa Bay in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle from 1950 to 2007. Hourly sea level elevations from the St. Petersburg tide gauge, and wind speed and direction from three different sites around Tampa Bay are used for the study. The zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind components are rotated clockwise by 40° to obtain axial and co-axial components according to the layout of the bay. First, we use the subtidal observed water level as a proxy for mean tidal height to estimate the rate of volumetric bay outflow. Second, we use wavelet analysis to bandpass sea level and wind data in the time–frequency domain to isolate the synoptic sea level and surface wind variance. For both analyses the long-term monthly climatology is removed and we focus on the volumetric and wavelet variance anomalies. The overall correlation between the Oceanic Niño Index and volumetric analysis is small due to the seasonal dependence of the ENSO response. The mean monthly climatology between the synoptic wavelet variance of elevation and axial winds are in close agreement. During the winter, El Niño (La Niña) increases (decreases) the synoptic variability, but decreases (increases) it during the summer. The difference in winter El Niño/La Niña wavelet variances is about 20 % of the climatological value, meaning that ENSO can swing the synoptic flushing of the bay by 0.22 bay volumes per month. These changes in circulation associated with synoptic variability have the potential to impact mixing and transport within the bay. 相似文献
4.
The mechanisms controlling the El Niño have been studied by analyzing mixed layer heat budget of daily outputs from a free coupled simulation with the Climate Forecast System (CFS). The CFS is operational at National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and is used by Climate Prediction Center for seasonal-to-interannual prediction, particularly for the prediction of the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific. Our analysis shows that the development and decay of El Niño can be attributed to ocean advection in which all three components contribute. Temperature advection associated with anomalous zonal current and mean vertical upwelling contributes to the El Niño during its entire evolutionary cycle in accordance with many observational, theoretical, and modeling studies. The impact of anomalous vertical current is found to be comparable to that of mean upwelling. Temperature advection associated with mean (anomalous) meridional current in the CFS also contributes to the El Niño cycle due to strong meridional gradient of anomalous (mean) temperature. The surface heat flux, non-linearity of temperature advection, and eddies associated with tropical instabilities waves (TIW) have the tendency to damp the El Niño. Possible degradation in the analysis and closure of the heat budget based on the monthly mean (instead of daily) data is also quantified. 相似文献
5.
Liu Xueyuan Köhl Armin Stammer Detlef Masuda Shuhei Ishikawa Yoichi Mochizuki Takashi 《Climate Dynamics》2017,49(3):1061-1075
We investigated the influence of dynamical in-consistency of initial conditions on the predictive skill of decadal climate predictions. The investigation builds on the fully coupled global model “Coupled GCM for Earth Simulator” (CFES). In two separate experiments, the ocean component of the coupled model is full-field initialized with two different initial fields from either the same coupled model CFES or the GECCO2 Ocean Synthesis while the atmosphere is initialized from CFES in both cases. Differences between both experiments show that higher SST forecast skill is obtained when initializing with coupled data assimilation initial conditions (CIH) instead of those from GECCO2 (GIH), with the most significant difference in skill obtained over the tropical Pacific at lead year one. High predictive skill of SST over the tropical Pacific seen in CIH reflects the good reproduction of El Niño events at lead year one. In contrast, GIH produces additional erroneous El Niño events. The tropical Pacific skill differences between both runs can be rationalized in terms of the zonal momentum balance between the wind stress and pressure gradient force, which characterizes the upper equatorial Pacific. In GIH, the differences between the oceanic and atmospheric state at initial time leads to imbalance between the zonal wind stress and pressure gradient force over the equatorial Pacific, which leads to the additional pseudo El Niño events and explains reduced predictive skill. The balance can be reestablished if anomaly initialization strategy is applied with GECCO2 initial conditions and improved predictive skill in the tropical Pacific is observed at lead year one. However, initializing the coupled model with self-consistent initial conditions leads to the highest skill of climate prediction in the tropical Pacific by preserving the momentum balance between zonal wind stress and pressure gradient force along the equatorial Pacific.
相似文献6.
Northern Hemisphere circulations differ considerably between individual El Niño-Southern Oscillation events due to internal atmospheric variability and variation in the zonal location of sea surface temperature forcing over the tropical Pacific Ocean. This study examines the similarities between recent Northern Hemisphere droughts associated with La Niña events and anomalously warm tropical west Pacific sea surface temperatures during 1988–1989, 1998–2000, 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 in terms of the hemispheric-scale circulations and the regional forcing of precipitation over North America and Asia during the cold season of November through April. The continental precipitation reductions associated with recent central Pacific La Niña events were most severe over North America, eastern Africa, the Middle East and southwest Asia. High pressure dominated the entire Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and weakened and displaced storm tracks northward over North America into central Canada. Regionally over North America and Asia, the position of anomalous circulations within the zonal band of mid-latitude high pressure varied between each La Niña event. Over the northwestern and southeastern United States and southern Asia, the interactions of anomalous circulations resulted in consistent regional temperature advection, which was subsequently balanced by similar precipitation-modifying vertical motions. Over the central and northeastern United States, the spatial variation of anomalous circulations resulted in modest inter-seasonal temperature advection variations, which were balanced by varying vertical motion and precipitation patterns. Over the Middle East and eastern Africa, the divergence of moisture and the advection of dry air due to anomalous circulations enhanced each of the droughts. 相似文献
7.
The ability of an atmospheric general circulation model to reproduce fundamental features of the wintertime extratropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation is evaluated with emphasis on the daily variability of the SH mean flow and the mean flow-transient perturbations interaction. Two 10-year simulations using a new version of the LMDZ GCM with a stretched grid scheme centered at 45 °S and forced by climatological SST are performed: a high (144Ꮡ) and low (64Ꭹ) horizontal resolution runs. The performance of both simulations was determined by comparing several simulated fields (zonal wind, temperature, kinetic energy, transient eddy momentum and heat fluxes, Eliassen-Palm fluxes, Eady growth rate and baroclinic conversion term) against the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast reanalyses (ERA). High and low-resolution simulations are similar in many respects; in particular, both experiments reproduce the main patterns of the southern extratropical large-scale circulation satisfactorily. Increasing resolution does not improve universally some spurious aspects of the low resolution simulation (e.g. the cold bias in the high polar troposphere, the debilitated subtropical jet, the low baroclinic conversion rate). Those aspects present little sensitivity to the model resolution. The interaction between transient eddies and zonal mean flow are examined. The low-resolution experiment is able to qualitatively represent the acceleration/deceleration of the mean flow by transient perturbations, south/north of 30 °S with an accuracy similar to that of the high-resolution experiment. Although both experiments represent the baroclinic structure of the mean flow satisfactorily, the model underestimates some transient properties due to the underestimation of the baroclinic conversion term in middle latitudes. Such misrepresentation does not improve with increasing resolution and is related to the relatively weak meridional temperature gradient and the inadequate geographical distribution of the eddy heat fluxes. In particular, the eddy kinetic energy is always underestimated. Eddy kinetic energy does not improve convincingly with increasing resolution, suggesting that the adequate representation of the storm tracks is highly influenced by the physical parametrizations. 相似文献
8.
The interannual variability of the Madden– Julian Oscillation (MJO) is investigated in an ensemble of 15 experiments performed with the ECHAM4 T30 general circulation model (GCM). The model experiments have been performed with AMIP conditions from January 1979 to December 1993. The MJO signal has been identified applying a principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis to the 200-mb tropical velocity potential. The results obtained from the model ensemble are compared with 15?y of ECMWF re-analysis and OLR observations. The results suggest that the warm and cold phases of El Niño have some influence on the spatial propagation of the oscillation. Both in the re-analysis and in the model ensemble, the results indicate that during La Niña conditions the MJO is mostly confined west of the date line, with the largest activity located over the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. In warm El Niño conditions, the convective anomalies associated with the oscillation appear to penetrate farther into the central Pacific. These changes in the MJO convective forcing seem to affect the zonal mean of the rotational component of the flow anomaly, which tends to weaken during warm El Niño periods. Some weak reproducibility of the interannual variability of the MJO activity is found. The results obtained from four-member and eight-member subsamples of the ensemble indicate that the reproducibility of the interannual behaviour of the MJO can be detected by choosing an ensemble of a larger size. Corresponding to the emergence of reproducibility with the increasing size of the sample, the correlation between the MJO activity and the Niño-3 SST anomaly appears to in-tensify. 相似文献
9.
10.
Linear trends in sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean and implications for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
A principal component decomposition of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean demonstrates that nearly all of the linear trends during 1950–2010 are found in two leading patterns. The first SST pattern is strongly related to the canonical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern. The second pattern shares characteristics with the first pattern and its existence solely depends on the presence of linear trends across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The decomposition also uncovers a third pattern, often referred to as ENSO Modoki, but the linear trend is small and dataset dependent over the full 61-year record and is insignificant within each season. ENSO Modoki is also reflected in the equatorial zonal SST gradient between the Niño-4 region, located in the west-central Pacific, and the Niño-3 region in the eastern Pacific. It is only in this zonal SST gradient that a marginally significant trend arises early in the Northern Hemisphere spring (March–May) during El Niño and La Niña and also in the late summer (July–September) during El Niño. Yet these SST trends in the zonal gradient do not unequivocally represent an ENSO Modoki-like dipole because they are exclusively associated with significant positive SST trends in either the eastern or western Pacific, with no corresponding significant negative trends. Insignificant trends in the zonal SST gradient are evident during the boreal wintertime months when ENSO events typically mature. Given the presence of positive SST trends across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, using fixed SST anomaly thresholds to define ENSO events likely needs to be reconsidered. 相似文献
11.
Five sets of model sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate the influence of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis location and atmospheric circulation on interannual variability of TC intensity in the western North Pacific (WNP). In each experiment, bogus TCs are placed at different initial locations, and simulations are conducted with identical initial and boundary conditions. In the first three experiments, the specified atmospheric and SST conditions represent the mean conditions of El Nio, La Nia, and neutral years. The other two experiments are conducted with the specified atmospheric conditions of El Nio and La Nia years but with SSTs exchanged. The model results suggest that TCs generated in the southeastern WNP incurred more favorable environmental conditions for development than TCs generated elsewhere. The different TC intensities between El Nio and La Nia years are caused by difference in TC genesis location and low-level vorticity (VOR). VOR plays a significant role in the intensities of TCs with the same genesis locations between El Nio and La Nia years. 相似文献
12.
Mean Flow–Storm Track Relationship and Rossby Wave Breaking in Two Types of El-Nino简 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The features of large-scale circulation, storm tracks and the dynamical relationship between them were examined by investigating Rossby wave breaking （RWB） processes associated with Eastern Pacific （EP） and Central Pacific （CP） E1-Nifio. During EP E1-Nino, the geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa （Z500） exhibits a Pacific-North America （PNA） pattern. During CP EI-Nifio, the Z500 anomaly shows a north positive-south negative pattern over the North Pacific. The anomalous distributions of baroclinicity and storm track are consistent with those of upper-level zonal wind for both EP and CP EI-Nino, suggesting impacts of mean flow on storm track variability. Anticyclonic wave breaking （AWB） oczurs less frequently in EP EI-Nino years, while cyclonic wave breaking （CWB） occurs more frequently in CP EI-Nino years over the North Pacific sector. Outside the North Pacific, more CWB events occur over North America during EP Ei-NiNo. When AWB events occur less frequently over the North Pacific during EP EI-Nino, Z500 decreases locally and the zonal wind is strengthened （weakened） to the south （north）. This is because AWB events reflect a monopoie high anomaly at the centroid of breaking events. When CWB events occur more frequently over the North Pacific under CP EI-Nino conditions, and over North America under EP EI-Nino condition, Z500 increases （decreases） to the northeast （southwest）, since CWB events are related to a northeast-southwest dipole Z500 anomaly. The anomalous RWB events act to invigorate and reinforce the circulation anomalies over the North Pacific-North America region linked with the two types of EI-Nino. 相似文献
13.
Yeon-Soo Jang Daehyun Kim Young-Ho Kim Dong-Hoon Kim Masahiro Watanabe Fei-Fei Jin Jong-Seong Kug 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2013,49(2):193-199
Many recent studies have reported the presence of two types of El Niño events in observation: Cold Tongue (CT) El Niño and Warm Pool (WP) El Niño. We investigate the sensitivity of a model simulating two types of El Niño by changing a convective triggering parameter (Tokioka parameter). When deep convections are highly suppressed with a large Tokioka parameter, the model is capable of simulating distinct two-types of El Niño. However, the model has a problem in simulating two-types of El Niño distinctively when the Tokioka parameter is small, because the location of the maximum precipitation anomaly related to the CT El Niño is significantly shifted westward, leading to an atmospheric response pattern similar to that of the WP El Niño. Our results suggest that the mean precipitation over the eastern equatorial Pacific and the resultant zonal distribution in atmospheric feedback associated with ENSO can be one of the crucial factors for simulating two-types of El Niño. 相似文献
14.
The three-dimensional structure and evolution characteristics of tropical depression (TD) and mixed Rossby-gravity wave (MRG) type disturbances in the tropical western North Pacific during El Niño and La Niña summers are investigated based on observational and reanalysis data. A clear MRG-to-TD transition was observed during El Niño summers while such a transition is unclear during La Niña summers. The vertical structure of the TD-MRG waves appears equivalent barotropic during El Niño but becomes tilted eastward with height during La Niña. The diagnosis of barotropic energy conversion shows that both the rotational and divergent components of the background flow change associated with E1 Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are responsible for energy conversion from the mean flow to the TD-MRG perturbations. A further examination of the pure MRG mode shows that its intensity does not vary between El Niño and La Niña while its phase speed does. A faster (slower) westward propagation speed during La Niña (El Niña) is attributed to enhanced (reduced) mean easterlies in the western equatorial Pacific. The heating associated with the MRG wave appears more anti-symmetric during La Niña than during El Niño. In contrast to the MRG waves, the amplitude of the TD waves depends greatly on the ENSO phase. The enhanced (suppressed) TD disturbances during El Niño (La Niña) is attributed to greater (less) barotropic energy conversion associated with the background flow change. The vertical structure of the TD waves appears quasi-barotropic in the geopotential height field but baroclinic in the divergence field. 相似文献
15.
冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年代际变化特征及其可能影响机制 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
利用1958-2002年的ERA-40再分析资料,用谐波变换和EOF方法分析了冬季北太平洋风暴轴在年代际时间尺度上的变化特征,并通过回归分析的方法初步探讨了风暴轴年代际变化的可能影响机制.结果表明,在年代际时间尺度上,北太平洋风暴轴有两种主要模态,第1模态是风暴轴在其气候平均位置增强或减弱的主体一致变化型,其年代际变化受到上游涡旋强迫的影响,北大西洋强(弱)的涡旋活动,使得冬季北太平洋西风急流减弱(增强)、变宽(窄)、北抬(南压),同期北太平洋风暴轴活动偏强(弱),黑潮延续体区海表温度有偏暖(冷)的响应;第2模态是风暴轴中东部在气候平均位置南北两侧振荡的经向异常型,与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)循环的暖(冷)位相相联系,下垫面海温非绝热加热的作用,激发加强(减弱)大气中类太平洋/北美遥相关型(PNA)的响应,引起大气斜压性异常偏南(北),使得风暴轴整体南压(北抬),且中东部向东南(北)方向移动.因此,冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年代际变化不仅是局地波-流相互作用的结果,还应考虑上游涡旋活动和海温热力强迫的作用. 相似文献
16.
Using the output of 12 models from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3, we investigate the feedback process responsible for changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation activity during the mid-Holocene based on a linear stability index (Bjerknes stability index; BJ index) analysis. The multi-model ensemble mean (MME) variance of the Niño-3.4 index (sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over 5°S–5°N, 170°–120°W) simulated for 6000 years ago (6 kya) was 13% lower than that for the pre-industrial era (0 kya), while changes in the MME BJ index were negligible. This is due to a balance between enhanced damping by anomalous thermal advection by mean currents (MA) and enhanced positive thermocline feedback (TH). Seven of the models show that MME variance of the Niño-3.4 and BJ indexes for the 6 kya run is 21 and 70% lower, respectively, than the 0 kya run. However, two models show the opposite change. Interestingly, MA in both model groups increases, especially due to the mean meridional current associated with enhanced trade winds, indicating a robust mechanism. The opposite tendency between the two groups is mainly due to large TH in the second group 6 kya, as a result of enhanced air-sea coupling and strongly reduced ocean stratification due to subsurface warming, which led to increased sensitivity of the zonal thermocline contrast to surface zonal wind stress. 相似文献
17.
Hiroaki Ueda Yuusuke Amagai Masamitsu Hayasaki 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2017,53(2):287-293
La Niña conditions during boreal winter sometimes brings excessive snowfall in Japan, especially on the East Sea/Sea of Japan coastal and mountain areas through intensified northwesterly cold winds caused by La-Niña related atmospheric teleconnection. Meanwhile, snowfall events also increase in the Pacific coast area of Japan during the El Niño state due to extratropical cyclones passing along the south coast of Japan (hereafter referred to as South-coast cyclone). In the present study, we investigated year-to-year snowfall/rainfall variations based on meteorological station data and cyclone tracks identified by using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis. The result clearly indicates increase of the South-coast cyclone during El Niño-developing winters, which is consistent with excessive snow-fall in the northern part of the Pacific coast. Strong subtropical jet hampers cyclogenesis due to less vertical interaction through the trapping of upper-level eddies. During El Niño-developing winters, the subtropical jet is weakened over East Asia, indicating dynamic linkage to increased cyclone frequency. In addition to this, both the deepening of the upper-tropospheric trough over East Asia and anomalous low-tropospheric northwest anticyclones extending from the Philippines toward Japan are also consistent with the enhancement of cyclogenesis over the East China Sea as well as warm winter in Japan. 相似文献
18.
利用1951—2017年NOAA月平均海面温度、NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料以及中国160站月降水观测资料,通过分类合成分析方法研究了东部型（eastern Pacific,EP）和中部型（central Pacific,CP）厄尔尼诺（El Niño）事件当年及次年对山东夏季降水年际变化的影响。结果表明,两类El Niño发生年,山东夏季降水均较常年显著偏少,但EP El Niño对山东夏季降水的影响强度和范围略弱于CP El Niño：EP El Niño发生年夏季,仅鲁西北部分地区以及胶州湾附近降水较常年显著偏少,而CP El Niño当年夏季山东全区降水较常年显著偏少。EP El Niño和CP El Niño次年对山东夏季降水异常的影响呈反位相,且影响大值区空间位置也完全相反：EP El Niño次年夏季山东东部尤其是半岛地区降水较常年异常偏少（青岛地区最为突出）,而CP El Niño次年夏季山东中部和北部尤其是西北部地区降水较常年异常偏多。EP El Niño当年和次年夏季、CP El Niño当年夏季500 hPa高度场异常分布形势不利于西北太平洋副热带高压的北上,850 hPa风场为偏北风和偏东风异常,山东水汽输送条件差,水汽无明显辐合,造成大部分地区降水偏少。CP El Niño次年夏季西北太平洋副热带高压偏强,位置偏西偏北,850 hPa显著西南风场异常,山东中西部水汽辐合明显,这些是降水偏多的重要原因。 相似文献
19.
The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Tobias Bayr Dietmar Dommenget Thomas Martin Scott B. Power 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2747-2763
This study investigates the global warming response of the Walker Circulation and the other zonal circulation cells (represented by the zonal stream function), in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models. The changes in the mean state are presented as well as the changes in the modes of variability. The mean zonal circulation weakens in the multi model ensembles nearly everywhere along the equator under both the RCP4.5 and SRES A1B scenarios. Over the Pacific the Walker Circulation also shows a significant eastward shift. These changes in the mean circulation are very similar to the leading mode of interannual variability in the tropical zonal circulation cells, which is dominated by El Niño Southern Oscillation variability. During an El Niño event the circulation weakens and the rising branch over the Maritime Continent shifts to the east in comparison to neutral conditions (vice versa for a La Niña event). Two-thirds of the global warming forced trend of the Walker Circulation can be explained by a long-term trend in this interannual variability pattern, i.e. a shift towards more El Niño-like conditions in the multi-model mean under global warming. Further, interannual variability in the zonal circulation exhibits an asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. El Niño anomalies are located more to the east compared with La Niña anomalies. Consistent with this asymmetry we find a shift to the east of the dominant mode of variability of zonal stream function under global warming. All these results vary among the individual models, but the multi model ensembles of CMIP3 and CMIP5 show in nearly all aspects very similar results, which underline the robustness of these results. The observed data (ERA Interim reanalysis) from 1979 to 2012 shows a westward shift and strengthening of the Walker Circulation. This is opposite to what the results in the CMIP models reveal. However, 75 % of the trend of the Walker Circulation can again be explained by a shift of the dominant mode of variability, but here towards more La Niña-like conditions. Thus in both climate change projections and observations the long-term trends of the Walker Circulation seem to follow to a large part the pre-existing dominant mode of internal variability. 相似文献
20.
Margaret M. Hurwitz Natalia Calvo Chaim I. Garfinkel Amy H. Butler Sarah Ineson Chiara Cagnazzo Elisa Manzini Cristina Peña-Ortiz 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(12):3367-3376
The seasonal mean extra-tropical atmospheric response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is assessed in the historical and pre-industrial control CMIP5 simulations. This analysis considers two types of El Niño events, characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in either the central equatorial Pacific (CP) or eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), as well as EP and CP La Niña events, characterized by negative SST anomalies in the same two regions. Seasonal mean geopotential height anomalies in key regions typify the magnitude and structure of the disruption of the Walker circulation cell in the tropical Pacific, upper tropospheric ENSO teleconnections and the polar stratospheric response. In the CMIP5 ensembles, the magnitude of the Walker cell disruption is correlated with the strength of the mid-latitude responses in the upper troposphere i.e., the North Pacific and South Pacific lows strengthen during El Niño events. The simulated responses to El Niño and La Niña have opposite sign. The seasonal mean extra-tropical, upper tropospheric responses to EP and CP events are indistinguishable. The ENSO responses in the MERRA reanalysis lie within the model scatter of the historical simulations. Similar responses are simulated in the pre-industrial and historical CMIP5 simulations. Overall, there is a weak correlation between the strength of the tropical response to ENSO and the strength of the polar stratospheric response. ENSO-related polar stratospheric variability is best simulated in the “high-top” subset of models with a well-resolved stratosphere. 相似文献