共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
K. F. Tiampo J. B. Rundle W. Klein Y. Ben-Zion S. McGinnis 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(9-10):1991-2003
— Earthquake fault systems are now thought to be an example of a complex nonlinear system (Bak, et al., 1987; Rundle and Klein, 1995). The spatial and temporal complexity of this system translates into a similar complexity in the surface expression of the underlying physics, including deformation and seismicity. Here we show that a new pattern dynamic methodology can be used to define a unique, finite set of deformation patterns for the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN). Similar in nature to the empirical orthogonal functions historically employed in the analysis of atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena (Preisendorfer, 1988), the method derives the eigenvalues and eigenstates from the diagonalization of the correlation matrix using a Karhunen-Loeve expansion (KLE) (Fukunaga, 1970; Rundle et al., 2000; Tiampo et al., 2002). This KLE technique may be used to determine the important modes in both time and space for the southern California GPS data, modes that potentially include such time-dependent signals as plate velocities, viscoelasticity, and seasonal effects. Here we attempt to characterize several of the seasonal vertical signals on various spatial scales. These, in turn, can be used to better model geophysical signals of interest such as coseismic deformation, viscoelastic effects, and creep, as well as provide data assimilation and model verification for large-scale numerical simulations of southern California. 相似文献
2.
The Pattern Informatics (PI) technique (tiampo et al., 2002) is founded on the premise that changes in the seismicity rate are a proxy for changes in the underlying stress. These stress changes are correlated over large spatial regions, and can be quantified using a phase dynamical analysis of the changes in historic seismicity rates. This new approach to the study of seismicity quantifies its local and regional space-time patterns and identifies regions of local quiescence or activation. Here we study those local changes in an attempt to objectively quantify short-term stress shadow regions. We determine that, while persistent stress shadows are detectable with this method, they do not occur uniformly throughout the spatio-temporal region. 相似文献
3.
In this work we review the development of both established and innovative analytical techniques using numerical simulations of the southern California fault system and demonstrate the viability of these methods with examples using actual data. The ultimate goal of these methods is to better understand how the surface of the Earth is changing on both long-and short-term time scales, and to use the resulting information to learn about the internal processes in the underlying crust and to predict future changes in the deformation and stress field. Three examples of the analysis and visualization techniques are discussed in this paper and include the Karhunen-Loeve (KL) decomposition technique, local Ginsberg criteria (LGC) analysis, and phase dynamical probability change (PDPC). Examples of the potential results from these methods are provided through their application to data from the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN), historic seismicity data, and simulated InSAR data, respectively. These analyses, coupled with advances in modeling and simulation, will provide the capability to track changes in deformation and stress through time, and to relate these to the development of space-time correlations and patterns. 相似文献
4.
We used the Digital Faults geoinformation system that we developed to propose an algorithm for quantitative estimation of
seismic activity on faults. The resulting technique was used to study the spatiotemporal patterns in the present-day activity
of faults in Central Asia. Fault activity was found to vary at frequencies of a few years and cannot be explained by changes
in the regional stress fields. We studied the tendency of seismic events to be localized to areas of dynamic influence due
to faults. The active faults were grouped by the criteria of seismicity organization in the influence areas of these faults.
It was shown that fault activity and its comparatively high frequency on real time scales are caused by strain waves, which
may be generated by interplate and interblock movements in the brittle lithosphere. Judging by the speed of strain waves,
the active faults are classified into groups that differ in their geological and geophysical parameters. They can be used
to estimate the directions of strain wave fronts and to identify areas of dominant fault activation over intervals of real
(geologically speaking) time. We give a map showing active faults in Central Asia, plots of a quantitative index of their
seismic activity, and the directivity vectors of strain waves that excite fault activity. The methods we developed for classifying
active faults by the quantitative index of seismic activity and for determining the vectors of strain waves that excite fault
activity are all tools that significantly expand our possibilities when developing tectonophysical models of the seismic process
in earthquake-generating zones of the lithosphere and open new methods for attacking problems in intermediate-term earthquake
prediction. 相似文献
5.
We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m ≥ 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m ≥ 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m ≥ 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m ≥ 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m ≥ 7 earthquake. 相似文献
6.
Mohammad Talebi Abbas Sivandi-Pour Ghasem-Ali Ahmadi Ehsan Noroozinejad Farsangi Shamseddin Esmaeili Mohammad-Javad Banimahdi-Dehkordi Hamidreza Safizadeh Mahdieh Akbarpoor Ehsan Ebrahimi Rabe Sharifi Rad Manoochehr Fallah 《地震科学（英文版）》2022,35(2):122-137
Fault lineaments are the main input data in earthquake engineering and seismology studies. This study presents a digitally-based active fault map of the Kerman region in central-east Iran which experienced several devastating earthquakes on poorly exposed and/or not identified active faults. Using Landsat 8 data, we have carried out the image-based procedures of fault mapping, which include applying the contrast stretching technique, the principal component analysis, the color composite technique, the spectral rationing, and creating the false-color composite images. Besides, we have cross-checked the resulting map with the geological maps provided by the Geological Survey of Iran to decrease the associated uncertainties. The resulting map includes 123 fault segments, still, a part of which has been expressed in the previously compiled active-fault maps of Iran. Indeed, the new one is mapping the poorly exposed active faults, so-called secondary faults, which are able to produce strong events. These faults are primarily associated with poorly defined areas that accommodate low levels of seismicity; however, sporadic strong events are likely to occur. It has also been investigated that these kinds of faults are seismogenic and are able to produce destructive events. In total, the outcome of this study can also be jointed with seismic studies for investigating parts of the earthquake activity in central-east Iran, in particular for the fault-based approaches in impending earthquake-resistant buildings. 相似文献
7.
—We report the analysis of over 16 years of fault creep and seismicity data from part of the creeping section of the San Andreas fault to examine and assess the temporal association between creep events and subsequent earthquakes. The goal is to make a long-term evaluation of creep events as a potential earthquake precursor. We constructed a catalog of creep events from available digital creepmeter data and compared it to a declustered seismicity catalog for the area between San Juan Bautista and San Benito, California, for 1980 to 1996. For magnitude thresholds of 3.8 and above and time windows of 5 to 10 days, we find relatively high success rates (40% to 55% 'hits') but also very high false alarm rates (generally above 90%). These success rates are statistically significant (0.0007 < P < 0.04). We also tested the actual creep event catalog against two different types of synthetic seismicity catalogs, and found that creep events are followed closely in time by earthquakes from the real catalog far more frequently than the average for the synthetic catalogs, generally by more than two standard deviations. We find no identifiable spatial pattern between the creep events and earthquakes that are hit or missed. We conclude that there is a significant temporal correlation between creep events and subsequent small to moderate earthquakes, however that additional information (such as from other potential precursory phenomena) is required to reduce the false alarm rate to an acceptable level. 相似文献
8.
P. B. Rundle J. B. Rundle K. F. Tiampo A. Donnellan D. L. Turcotte 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(9):1819-1846
Virtual California is a topologically realistic simulation of the interacting earthquake faults in California. Inputs to the
model arise from field data, and typically include realistic fault system topologies, realistic long-term slip rates, and
realistic frictional parameters. Outputs from the simulations include synthetic earthquake sequences and space-time patterns
together with associated surface deformation and strain patterns that are similar to those seen in nature. Here we describe
details of the data assimilation procedure we use to construct the fault model and to assign frictional properties. In addition,
by analyzing the statistical physics of the simulations, we can show that that the frictional failure physics, which includes
a simple representation of a dynamic stress intensity factor, leads to self-organization of the statistical dynamics, and
produces empirical statistical distributions (probability density functions: PDFs) that characterize the activity. One type
of distribution that can be constructed from empirical measurements of simulation data are PDFs for recurrence intervals on
selected faults. Inputs to simulation dynamics are based on the use of time-averaged event-frequency data, and outputs include PDFs representing measurements of dynamical variability arising from fault interactions and space-time correlations. As a first step for productively using model-based methods for
earthquake forecasting, we propose that simulations be used to generate the PDFs for recurrence intervals instead of the usual
practice of basing the PDFs on standard forms (Gaussian, Log-Normal, Pareto, Brownian Passage Time, and so forth). Subsequent
development of simulation-based methods should include model enhancement, data assimilation and data mining methods, and analysis
techniques based on statistical physics. 相似文献
9.
J. R. Holliday J. B. Rundle K. F. Tiampo W. Klein A. Donnellan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(11-12):2433-2454
Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and deducing information about future space-time fluctuations from the phase angle of the state vector. While the success rate of this Pattern Informatics (PI) method has been encouraging, the method is still in its infancy. Procedural analysis, statistical testing, parameter sensitivity investigation and optimization all still need to be performed. In this paper, we attempt to optimize the PI approach by developing quantitative values for ``predictive goodness'' and analyzing possible variations in the proposed procedure. In addition, we attempt to quantify the systematic dependence on the quality of the input catalog of historic data and develop methods for combining catalogs from regions of different seismic rates. 相似文献
10.
This study is concerned with quantitative estimation of the relationship between earthquakes and tectonic crustal fragmentation
based on a correlation analysis of fault density with seismicity parameters (the number and energy of earthquakes per unit
area) for the Sredne-Yamskoi seismic junction and adjacent area. The highest level of seismic activity and the highest probability
of earthquake occurrence with energy classes K ≥ 12 within areas that have a continental crust with a well-pronounced granite layer occur in those areas with the mean fault
density. Within areas with a thinner granite layer in the crust, the most likely seismic events are K ≥ 12 earthquakes that occur in areas with lower fault density. We estimated the relationship between the degree of crustal
fragmentation and the topography of stratification interfaces in the crust as identified by new interpretative gravimetry.
Zones with the lowest degree of fragmentation tend to be areas where the top of the crystalline basement lies deeper. 相似文献
11.
Huai-zhong Yu Jia Cheng Xiao-tao Zhang Lang-ping Zhang Jie Liu Yong-xian Zhang 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(1-2):173-183
Prior to an earthquake, natural seismicity is correlated across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Many studies have indicated that an earthquake is hard to accurately predict by a single time-dependent precursory method. In this study, we attempt to combine four earthquake prediction methods, i.e. the Pattern Informatics (PI), Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR), State Vector (SV), and Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) to estimate future earthquake potential. The PI technique is founded on the premise that the change in the seismicity rate is a proxy for the change in the underlying stress. We first use the PI method to quantify localized changes surrounding the epicenters of large earthquakes to objectively quantify the anomalous areas (hot spots) of the upcoming events. Next, we delineate the seismic hazard regions by integrating with regional active fault zones and small earthquake activities. Then, we further evaluate the earthquake potential in the seismic hazard regions using the LURR, SV and AMR methods. Retrospective tests of this new approach on the large earthquakes (M > 6.5) which have occurred in western China over the last 3 years show that the LURR and SV time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak months to years prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. And, the asymptote time, t c, “predicted” by the AMR method correspond to the time of the actual events. The results may suggest that the multi-methods combined approach can be a useful tool to provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the time and location of future large events. 相似文献
12.
本文采用天然地震近震走时反演地壳三维速度结构的方法获得了郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段及附近地壳(30°N—37°N,113°E—122°E)三维速度结构.对地壳内分层速度结构的分析发现,郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段存在速度的分段特征.郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段浅层35.3°N以北,34.5°N—35.3°N间,33°N—34.5°N间呈现的速度分段和地表出露地层有关,与地质上安丘段、莒县—郯城段,新沂—泗洪段三个破裂单元相对应,且和各段的地震活动相呼应,表明郯庐带新沂到泗洪段可能是断裂的闭锁段.郯庐断裂带鲁苏皖段地壳速度结构自浅至深分为三段,大体位置是:南段(32.5°N—33°N以南),中段(32.5°N—33°N至35°N—35.3°N),北段(35°N—35.3°N以北).上地壳分段与苏鲁超高压变质岩带的插入有关,中、下地壳速度分段则可能和火山岩滞留有关.地壳各层速度结构不同段的速度差异反映了构造块体的速度差异,表明各构造块体在地壳下部仍有差异,郯庐带西侧速度总体高于东侧,反映了不同构造块体的形成和组成差别,也说明了该断裂带可能延伸到莫霍面.而不同深度的分段性可能反映了不同地质演化过程. 相似文献
13.
Machine learning-based automatic construction of earthquake catalog for reservoir areas in multiple river basins of Guizhou province,China 
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下载免费PDF全文 Large reservoirs have the risk of reservoir induced seismicity. Accurately detecting and locating microseismic events are crucial when studying reservoir earthquakes. Automatic earthquake monitoring in reservoir areas is one of the effective measures for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, we first applied the automatic location workflow (named LOC-FLOW) to process 14-day continuous waveform data from several reservoir areas in different river basins of Guizhou province. Compared with the manual seismic catalog, the recall rate of seismic event detection using the workflow was 83.9%. Of the detected earthquakes, 88.9% had an onset time difference below 1 s, 81.8% has a deviation in epicenter location within 5 km, and 77.8% had a focal depth difference of less than 5 km, indicating that the workflow has good generalization capacity in reservoir areas. We further applied the workflow to retrospectively process continuous waveform data recorded from 2020 to the first half of 2021 in reservoir areas in multiple river basins of western Guizhou province and identified five times the number of seismic events obtained through manual processing. Compared with manual processing of seismic catalog, the completeness magnitude had decreased from 1.3 to 0.8, and a b-value of 1.25 was calculated for seismicity in western Guizhou province, consistent with the b-values obtained for the reservoir area in previous studies. Our results show that seismicity levels were relatively low around large reservoirs that were impounded over 15 years ago, and there is no significant correlation between the seismicity in these areas and reservoir impoundment. Seismicity patterns were notably different around two large reservoirs that were only impounded about 12 years ago, which may be explained by differences in reservoir storage capacity, the geologic and tectonic settings, hydrogeological characteristics, and active fault the reservoir areas. Prominent seismicity persisted around two large reservoirs that have been impounded for less than 10 years. These events were clustered and had relatively shallow focal depths. The impoundment of the Jiayan Reservoir had not officially begun during this study period, but earthquake location results suggested a high seismicity level in this reservoir area. Therefore, any seismicity in this reservoir area after the official impoundment deserves special attention. 相似文献
14.
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15.
A systematic review across U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) identified potentially induced seismic locations was conducted to discover seismic distance patterns and trends over time away from injection disposal wells. Previous research indicates a 10 km (6 miles) average where the majority of induced seismicity is expected to occur within individual locations, with some areas reporting a larger radius of 35 km (22 miles) to over 70 km (43 miles). This research analyzed earthquake occurrences within nine USGS locations where specified wells were identified as contributors to induced seismicity to determine distance patterns from disposal wells or outward seismic migration over time using established principles of hydrogeology. Results indicate a radius of 31.6 km (20 miles) where 90% of felt earthquakes occur among locations, with the closest proximal felt seismic events, on average, occurring 3 km (1.9 miles) away from injection disposal wells. The results of this research found distance trends across multiple locations of potentially induced seismicity. 相似文献
16.
Aswan Lake started impounding in 1964 and reached the highest water level so far in 1978 with a capacity of 133.8 km3, thus forming the second largest man-made lake in the world. An earthquake of magnitude 5.3 (Ms) took place on 14 November 1981 along the most active part of the E-W Kalabsha fault beneath the Kalabsha bay (the largest bay of the lake). This earthquake was followed by a tremendous number of smaller events that continue till now. A radio-telemetry network of 13 seismic short period stations and a piezometer network of six wells were established around the northern part of the lake.Epicenters were found to cluster around active faults near the lake. The space-time distribution and the relation of the seismicity with the lake water level fluctuations were studied. Six years after flooding the eastern segment of the Kalabsha fault, strong seismicity began following the main shock of 14 November 1981. It occurred four days after the reservoir had reached its seasonal max level. The effect of the North African drought (1982 to present) is clearly seen in the reservoir water level. As it decreased and left the most active fault segments uncovered, the activity (Gebel Marawa area) decreased sharply. Also, the shallow activity was found to be more sensitive to rapid discharging than to the filling. This study indicates that geology, topography, lineations in seismicity, offsets in the faults, changes in fault trends and focal mechanisms are closely related. No relation was found between earthquake activity and both-ground water table fluctuations and water temperatures measured in wells located around the Kalabsha area. 相似文献
17.
18.
川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据. 相似文献
19.
Eleftheria Papadimitriou Dragomir Gospodinov Vassilis Karakostas Anastasios Astiopoulos 《Journal of Seismology》2013,17(2):735-752
A multiplet of moderate-magnitude earthquakes (5.1?≤?M?≤?5.6) took place in Zakynthos Island and offshore area (central Ionian Islands, Greece) in April 2006. The activity in the first month occupied an area of almost 35 km long, striking roughly NNW–SSE, whereas aftershocks continued for several months, decaying with time but persisting at the same place. The properties of the activated structure were investigated with accurate relocated data and the available fault plane solutions of some of the stronger events. Both the distribution of seismicity and fault plane solutions show that thrusting with strike-slip motions are both present in high-angle fault segments. The segmentation of the activated structure could be attributed to the faulting complexity inherited from the regional compressive tectonics. Investigation of the spatial and temporal behavior of seismicity revealed possible triggering of adjacent fault segments that may fail individually, thus preventing coalescence in a large main rupture. In an attempt to forecast occurrence probabilities of six of the strong events (M w?≥?5.0), estimations were performed following the restricted epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, applied to data samples before each one of these strong events. Stochastic modeling was also used to identify “quiescence” periods before the examined aftershocks. In two out of the six cases, real aftershock rate did decrease before the next strong shock compared to the modeled one. The latter results reveal that rate decrease is not a clear precursor of strong shocks in the swarm and no quantitative information, suitable to supply probability gain, could be extracted from the data. 相似文献
20.
G. A. Sobolev N. A. Zakrzhevskaya D. G. Sobolev V. A. Petrov 《Journal of Volcanology and Seismology》2017,11(2):103-112
This study is concerned with the influence exerted by worldwide M ≥ 7.5 earthquakes on the seismicity of California, and well as with the effects of M ≥ 5 southern California earthquakes on northern Californian seismicity. The analysis concerns the 1990–2013 period. We noted a seismicity increase in southern and northern California during the first 24 hours after worldwide earthquakes and a decrease during the next 48 hours. A seismicity increase in northern California during the first 24 hours following an earthquake in southern California and a decrease during the next 48 hours were also noted. A seismicity increase was observed in the Long Valley caldera during the first 24 hours following an M ≥ 5 earthquake in southern California and a decrease during the next 48 hours. We also discuss some causes of this trigger effect, in view of the fact that the external excitations had low intensity. No seismicity changes have been detected in southern and northern California during powerful typhoons in the northeastern Pacific and during magnetic storms. 相似文献