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加卸载响应比的自然概率分布 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9
从Ｇｕｔｅｎｂｅｒｇ－Ｒｉｃｈｔｅｒ的分布关系出发，以应用最多的以√Ｅ为响应量的Ｙ３为例，对模拟生成的满足Ｇ－Ｒ关系和均匀随机分布的事件探讨了加卸载响应比的自然概率分布，同时，还与首都圈地区的一组实际资料得到的自然概率进行了对比分析，结果表明，在样本量有保证的情况下，反映系统临近失稳程度的加卸载响应比Ｙ３的自然概率分布基本稳定，随机出现加卸载响应比高值的自然概率很低，因此，实际观测到的高响应经值确 相似文献
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加卸载响应比是一种刻画震源区介质损伤程度的物理学参数,它通过随时间的变化来反映地震孕育的过程来进行地震预测。通过对1990—1999年新疆地区部分中强地震前加卸载响应比时空演化特征进行分析,并基于该理论得到孕震积分的概念应用于震例中。结果表明:中强震震前在震中附近可能存在多个高加卸载响应比值区,它们大致围成椭圆状或环状,地震通常发生在异常高值波动或减弱的过程中;异常峰值至发震时间比理论时间要短,这可能表明新疆地区构造活动剧烈,孕震周期较短。 相似文献
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In this paper,the Gutenberg-Richter model is used to generate seismic events.The events that satisfy the random distribution are also generated.With those events,the natural probability distribution of Load and Unload Response Ratio(LURR),which measures quantitatively the degree of instability of a nonlinear system,is discussed.The study is based on stress energy release,which is chosen as the response of nonlinear system F3.The comparative results from the observation catalogue and generating data are also studied.It is revealed that the natural probability of LURR is mostly stable when the sample number is sufficient.The lower the natural probability of LURR,the more the precursory is information it may contain.The influence of Y3 resulting from the sample number and the magnitude range of events is also discussed. 相似文献
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加卸载响应比理论已在地震预测中得到广泛应用，但也面临挑战。本对加卸载响应比理论及方法进行了分析，并提出该理论几个可能的研究方面：(1)根据固体潮应力变化值给定每个小地震Benio盯应变在加卸载响应比计算中的权重；(2)考虑地震之前应力空间分布，确定加卸载响应比可能升高的区域形状，进而确定加卸载响应比计算中小震资料的选取范围；(3)将实测的小震震源机制与假定小震震源机制都相同时的加卸载响应比计算结果进行比较，研究测定的小震震源机制对加卸载响应比方法的改善情况；(4)研究加卸载响应比方法对不同震源机制类型地震的适用情况。 相似文献
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Revisiting the Tidal Activation of Seismicity with a Damage Mechanics and Friction Point of View 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
— The Load Unload Response Ratio theory (LURR) puts forward the idea that the ratio of seismicity during times of increased tidal loading to times of decreased tidal loading takes on anomalously large values as the preparatory region of the earthquake approaches a critical state. We repeated the calculations of LURR for several earthquakes in California, for which results had been published, using estimates of the parameters which could be determined from the published work. We were unable to confirm any LURR ratio predictive significance. We test an alternative method of evaluating the influence of tidal stresses on earthquakes based on damage mechanics. As in rock mechanics experiments, it may be that anomalous activation of seismicity prior to large earthquakes occurs only during those time intervals when the applied stress exceeds values previously attained. We applied this approach to analyze the same data set used to test the LURR hypothesis, and it also failed to reveal any significant precursory indications. It may be that time-dependent failure processes such as self-driven nucleation occur on a time scale longer than the diurnal tide, thus destroying the expected synchronization. 相似文献
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Yucang Wang Can Yin Peter Mora Xiang-chu Yin Keyin Peng 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(11-12):2281-2293
— The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AMR. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly. 相似文献
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地震临界区域尺度的界定对于地震前兆研究有着重要意义。通过加卸载响应比(LURR)及震前矩张量加速释放(AMR)两种模型对地震临界区域尺度进行了分析。采用不同半径区域内地震事件的Benioff应变分别计算LURR和AMR时间序列,震前引起时间序列异常变化最明显的半径尺度所定义的区域就是最佳地震临界区域。华北地区M>5震例研究结果显示两种模型所得到的最佳地震临界区域具有明显的一致性,最佳临界区域半径与主震震级之间统计的线性关系斜率约为0.34～0.36。研究结果表明通过不同预测模型可以较为定量的评价地震临界区域尺度,从而为地震预测研究提供依据。 相似文献
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2012年天津地区三次地震前水位对固体潮振幅响应计算分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
2012年在天津及其周边地区发生了唐山4.8级, 宝坻4.0级和宝坻3.5级三次地震。 本文收集整理了天津地区固体潮反映较好的宝坻井、 王3井、 高村井以及张道口井2012年的水位观测数据和气压数据。 采用卷积回归和多项式拟合方法, 对水位观测数据进行气压效应及趋势项的去除, 并对水位数据进行数字滤波处理, 增强水位固体潮信号。 在对数据进行以上有效预处理后, 采用类似于Nakai拟合模型, 以每两天数据为一组, 分别对不同窗口长度滤波处理后的水位数据进行体应变固体潮响应振幅因子比的计算。 计算结果表明, 三次地震前比值均出现明显高值变化。 经比较当窗长选取96 h和120 h进行滤波时计算效果最为明显, 其异常成组出现, 并且变化幅度较大。 由以上这四口井水位对固体潮响应振幅因子比在三次地震发生前后的变化分析, 地震前由于应力的积累, 比值会出现高值变化, 小震活动对应力的积累具有缓解释放作用, 并且结合地震活动以及震源机制解可以对应力的积累-释放过程有一定的了解与印证。 相似文献
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Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction 总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20
X. C. Yin P. Mora K. Peng Y. C. Wang D. Weatherley 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2002,159(10):2511-2523
-- The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. 相似文献
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样本条件对加卸载响应比计算结果的影响分析 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6
基于随机 Posson 模型和Gutenberg-Richter 关系, 构造在10年尺度内样本量从300到5000的若干组模拟地震数据,计算分析各种样本条件下的加卸载响应比Y 时间进程变化。结果表明,计算样本的震级上限Mt 相对于logN-M 关系中拟合线性外推最大震级MT 的变化对Y的异常分布有一定影响,其影响随地震样本量从小到大而明显减小。当滑动计算时间窗内地震样本为几十个量级, Mt 取为MT -1.5(或至2. 0)时,随机出现Y 大于2.0的高值异常分布频度明显降低。而当地震样本量达到上百个以上量级, Mt 取为MT-0. 0(或0. 5)时, Y大于2.0的高异常值随机出现频度即极低。在实际地震资料的Y计算中若注意Mt 的选取后,其结果的稳定性和异常的可信度将得到显著提高。 相似文献
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加卸载响应比是一种中短期地震预测方法.按照该方法,通常在大地震发生之前加卸载响应比时间序列会出现明显的异常高值.早先的研究发现,震前临界区域的选择对加卸载响应比的计算有很大影响.我们发展了一种使用震前应力积累区域取代传统圆形区域计算加卸载响应比的算法,提高了加卸载响应比的地震预测能力,其震前库仑应力场分布采用地震断层位错模型将同震滑移量反向滑移的方法计算.美国南加州近20年来发生的4次M6.5地震以及2008年中国汶川MS8.0地震的研究事实表明,使用库仑应力算法得到的加卸载响应比时间序列,前兆变化相对于圆形区域算法更为明显,且对目标地震的位置、震级预测更为明确.库仑应力算法的这一独特性质,使我们可以针对不同地区的活动构造特征对未来地震发生的地点和大小提供信息和约束. 相似文献
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Comparison Between LURR and State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakes in Southern California Since 1980 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Yongxian Zhang Yongjia Wu Xiangchu Yin Keyin Peng Langping Zhang Aiqin Yu Xiaotao Zhang 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(3-4):737-748
There are seven strong earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5 that occurred in southern California during the period from 1980 to 2005. In this paper, these earthquakes were studied by the LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) method and the State Vector method to detect if there are anomalies before them. The results show that LURR anomalies appeared before 6 earthquakes out of 7 and State Vector anomalies appeared before all 7 earthquakes. For the LURR method, the interval between maximum LURR value and the forthcoming earthquake is 1 to 19 months, and the dominant mean interval is about 10.7 months. For the State Vector method, the interval between the maximum modulus of increment State Vector and the forthcoming earthquake is from 3 to 27 months, but the dominant mean interval between the occurrence time of the maximum State Vector anomaly and the forthcoming earthquake is about 4.7 months. The results also show that the minimum valid space window scale for the LURR and the State Vector is a circle with a radius of 100 km and a square of 3°×3°, respectively. These results imply that the State Vector method is more effective for short-term earthquake prediction than the LURR method, however the LURR method is more effective for location prediction than the State Vector method. 相似文献
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Yu Huaizhong Yin Xiangchu Liang Naigang Xia Mengfen Li Min Xu Zhaoyong Peng Keyin Victor Kukshenko Wu Zhishen Qi Li Surguei Elizarov 《中国地震研究》2003,17(3):227-235
Implementing acoustic emission experiments with large rock samples, LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) theory was studied. The loading conditions in the experiments were designed to simulate the complicated loading process of underground rocks. The damages emerging inside the rock samples were recorded by the acoustic emission technique during the loading process. The experimental results were consistent with prediction by LURR theory. Integrating the changing processes of LURR value Y and the location process of acoustic emission events showed agreement between the variation of LURR value Y and the damage evolution inside the rocks. Furthermore, the high value of Y emerged before the complete breakdown of materials. Therefore, the damage evolution of rock specimen can be quantitatively analyzed with LURR theory, thus the failure of the rock materials and the earthquake occurrence may be predicted. The experimental results gave a further verification of LURR theory. 相似文献
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Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
— The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes. 相似文献
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Huai-zhong Yu Jia Cheng Xiao-tao Zhang Lang-ping Zhang Jie Liu Yong-xian Zhang 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(1-2):173-183
Prior to an earthquake, natural seismicity is correlated across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Many studies have indicated that an earthquake is hard to accurately predict by a single time-dependent precursory method. In this study, we attempt to combine four earthquake prediction methods, i.e. the Pattern Informatics (PI), Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR), State Vector (SV), and Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) to estimate future earthquake potential. The PI technique is founded on the premise that the change in the seismicity rate is a proxy for the change in the underlying stress. We first use the PI method to quantify localized changes surrounding the epicenters of large earthquakes to objectively quantify the anomalous areas (hot spots) of the upcoming events. Next, we delineate the seismic hazard regions by integrating with regional active fault zones and small earthquake activities. Then, we further evaluate the earthquake potential in the seismic hazard regions using the LURR, SV and AMR methods. Retrospective tests of this new approach on the large earthquakes (M > 6.5) which have occurred in western China over the last 3 years show that the LURR and SV time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak months to years prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. And, the asymptote time, t c, “predicted” by the AMR method correspond to the time of the actual events. The results may suggest that the multi-methods combined approach can be a useful tool to provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the time and location of future large events. 相似文献
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本文以中国大陆地震目录为基础资料,以泊松模型为零假设模型,并将Neyman-Scott空间丛集过程的各子模型设为检验模型,采用K-function点过程分析法和最大似然估计法计算各模型参数,并以AIC准侧判定模型的拟合优度,来检验中国大陆地震空间分布模型.检验结果表明:泊松模型的拟合优度最差,说明地震在空间的分布不是完全随机的;广义Thomas模型的拟合优度最好,说明地震的空间分布是丛集的,可用由两个高斯核组成的广义Thomas模型较好地描述.研究结果还表明,同一研究区内,采用不同时段具有不同最小完整起始震级的地震目录计算得到的地震空间分布的丛集尺度几乎不变,这意味着地震空间丛集尺度不受小地震的控制,且可能与研究区的断层规模有关. 相似文献