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1.
ABSTRACT. This article examines recent transformations of the coffee landscape of northern Latin America through the optic of “place as process.” As coffee became the most important regional export crop, its “place” evolved. Coffee lands in northern Latin America now embrace 3.1 million hectares, often contiguous across international borders. Like many agricultural systems, coffee has succumbed to intensification, a process termed “technification” in the Latin American setting. The result is a landscape mosaic in which a traditional agro-forest coffee system coexists with coffee lands transformed by modernization. The institutional forces behind this process, as well as some of its social and ecological consequences, are discussed.  相似文献   

2.
This study examines the land-use/cover change (LUCC) dynamics and drivers for two prominent land-use/cover systems in Guatemala: natural forests (FOR) and coffee agroforests (CAF). To-date, very little research has examined the LUCC dynamics of CAF, in large part due to the high degree of spectral similarity that exists between agroforests and other forest-cover types. Given the ecosystem and livelihood services provided by shade-grown coffee production, it is increasingly necessary to map and identify the dynamics and drivers of CAF changes over space and time. This research uses remote sensing analysis, land transition matrices, and multinomial regression models to examine LUCC dynamics over two ten-year intervals (1990–2000; 2000–2010) in Guatemala. Spatially explicit biophysical (e.g. slope, elevation) and accessibility (e.g. distance to roads) factors are used to model and compare drivers of change for CAF and FOR. Results demonstrate LUCC dynamics and drivers for the two land-use/cover systems to be complex over space and time. For example, FOR losses are evident for both time intervals, largely associated with conversion to CAF and croplands (CPL) in low slope, low altitude areas, and in areas close to existing croplands, respectively. CAF losses are also evident in the 1990s, but are outpaced by expansion in the 2000s. Losses are associated with conversion to CPL, particularly near roads and existing croplands, while expansion and/or persistence of CAF occurs near cities. These results suggest that conservation programs aimed at tree cover preservation and expansion should consider natural forests and managed agroforests separately. Further, such programs should be tailored to specific locations and institutional settings given the influence of topography and accessibility factors in determining localized patterns of landscape transformations over space and time.  相似文献   

3.
Ethiopian coffee price is highly fluctuated and has significant effect on the economy of the country. Conducting a research on forecasting coffee price has theoretical and practical importance.This study aims at forecasting the coffee price in Ethiopia. We used daily closed price data of Ethiopian coffee recorded in the period 25 June 2008 to 5 January 2017 obtained from Ethiopia commodity exchange (ECX) market to analyse coffee prices fluctuation. Here, the nature of coffee price is non-stationary and we apply the Kalman filtering algorithm on a single linear state space model to estimate and forecast an optimal value of coffee price. The performance of the algorithm for estimating and forecasting the coffee price is evaluated by using root mean square error (RMSE). Based on the linear state space model and the Kalman filtering algorithm, the root mean square error (RMSE) is 0.000016375, which is small enough, and it indicates that the algorithm performs well.  相似文献   

4.
这篇文章旨在构建一个期权定价模型以减少与埃塞俄比亚咖啡价格波动相关的风险。我们使用从埃塞俄比亚商品交易所(ECX)获得的2011年5月31日至2018年3月30日期间记录的埃塞俄比亚每日(WSDA3)咖啡价格来分析其咖啡价格的波动。本文使用跳跃扩散模型对咖啡价格进行建模和期权定价,应用最大似然法估计模型参数,使用均方根误差(RMSE)来对模型进行验证。结果表明Merton和双指数跳跃扩散模型的RMSE值分别为0.1093和0.0783,模型模拟结果与实际数据非常吻合,说明采用蒙特卡罗技术得到的WSDA3价格来对期权定价时,双指数跳跃扩散模型比Merton模型更为有效。  相似文献   

5.
The conservation of biodiversity in Latin American metropolitan areas is threatened by the intense land-use and -cover change. Assessing the overall biodiversity changes in entire regions faces with the traditional lack of consistent biodiversity data. This work aims at contributing to this assessment through a set of major pressures to biodiversity defined from land-use and -cover changes, and evaluating their extent, distribution and correlations with geographical variables. The study was performed in the framework of the Metropolitan Urban Plan of Concepción (MUPC, Chile). Land-use and -cover maps were obtained through image classification for the years 2000 and 2010, before and after the MUPC approval, and combined in a land-use and -cover change (LUCC) map. A set of pressures to biodiversity (natural and artificial forestation, deforestation, agricultural abandonment and expansion, and urbanization) was obtained from reclassifying the LUCC map. The correlations of these pressures with a set of geographical variables were assessed using canonical ordination methods. Finally, a preliminary forecast analysis of the effects of the MUPC was performed by combining the land-use and -cover map of 2010 with the urban-extension areas of the plan.Results showed that, in only 10 years, 57% of the Concepción Metropolitan Area (CMA) was affected by land-use and -cover changes, and 48% was affected by the pressures to biodiversity. Artificial forestation and deforestation were the dominant pressures, followed by agricultural abandonment and urbanization. The geographical distribution of pressures during the 2000–2010 period also contributed to affect the conservation of biodiversity and the sustainable management of the CMA. Indeed, natural forestation occurred close to urbanization, thus threatening the ecological integrity of native forests, while artificial forestation, deforestation and agricultural abandonment took place in steeply areas thus increasing landslide risk. Despite urbanization was not the most relevant pressure in the short studied period, urban development planned in the MUPC would determine an overall increase of 60% in the built-up area of the CMA, mostly affecting brushwood and forest plantations but also native forest and wetlands. Implications of these results for the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and the sustainable management of Latin American metropolis are finally discussed.  相似文献   

6.
Rapid urbanization leads to losses in arable land; quantitatively analyzing the impact of urbanization on arable land is significant for arable land management. However, changes in arable land due to urbanization with scale and neighborhood effects remains poorly understood at the town scale. In this study, high-resolution historical land use data, landscape metric analysis and spatial regression were integrated to quantify the impacts of urbanization on arable land use change (abandonment and conversion) at spatial scales of 300 m–3300 m using a block size increment of 200 m and at the catchment scale in the town of Jinjing in subtropical central China. Arable land abandonment was the predominant type of arable land change and presented strong spatial autocorrelations at each spatial scale. Arable land was converted to tea fields because agricultural structure transformations were occurring around the urban cores, and the amount of arable land converted to residential land accounted for only a small proportion of the total arable land loss and had no spatial autocorrelation. The significance and robustness of the arable land changes impacted by urbanization had obvious scale effects and strong neighborhood effects in nearby regions. Compared with block scales, the catchment scale is an optimal scale for assessing the influence of urbanization and applying planning policy. Our results highlight the significance of incorporating spatial interactions in urbanization research, which can generate less biased estimations and consequently lead to proper policy implication and recommendations. In addition, multi-scale comparisons are helpful for better understanding the relationships between arable land changes and urbanization and provide further insights into the harmonious development of rural settlements and urban cores to preserve arable land.  相似文献   

7.
This article examines the role of coffee in the agriculture of southwest Ethiopian highlands, a context characterized by recent huge private coffee estate developments, coffee certification projects and smallholdings. The analysis shows that smallholder farmers prioritize staple crops, and allocate land and labor to coffee only once food production objectives have been reached. It also underscores the diversity of the local peasantry, often treated as a homogeneous group in development projects designed to boost farmers' income through coffee production. Based on this analysis, the article evaluates the effects of recent coffee-oriented development policies: state forest concessions for coffee investment, and two coffee certification projects (UTZ-Certified and Fair-Trade/Organic). Because they omit the differentiated farmers' strategies, these certification initiatives fail to improve local populations' livelihoods and accelerate incipient socioeconomic inequalities. Moreover, when applied to big private plantations, they participate in farmers' dispossession from critical forest resources essential to households' food self-sufficiency.  相似文献   

8.
This study explores the potential of historical maps to detect, measure and monitor changes of trees outside forests. The main goal is to assess local-level changes of scattered trees and orchards and their land-use determinants in two areas in Southern Germany between 1901/1905 and 2009. Firstly, overall landscape changes are recorded. Secondly, the spatial-temporal trajectories of scattered trees and their land-use determinants are identified. Thirdly, changes in quantity and fragmentation patterns of traditional orchards are analyzed in their relationship to overall land-cover change. The results confirm major losses in scattered trees, mainly due to urbanization, agricultural intensification, and land abandonment. They further reveal that, while orchards have persisted in total area, they have undergone critical changes toward a simplified landscape structure and loss of the traditional land-use mosaic, which is a characterizing feature of high nature value landscapes. Multi-temporal assessment showed that most trends have been continuous and did not change directions over time, but rather accelerated during periods of rapid change (most dramatically in the 1950-1990 period). The case of orchards and scattered trees illustrates a major problem of cultural landscapes in Europe: Semi-natural landscape features of high nature value are threatened by both intensification and abandonment of land uses. This makes their conservation a potentially costly enterprise, as both opportunity costs for lost alternative land uses and for conservation management costs arise.  相似文献   

9.
By studying landscape form and patterns, we can study processes at multiple scales and determine how collectively those processes inform us about function(s). Integrating landscape ecology from a biogeographical perspective with geographic information science (GIScience) practices offers new ways to study how landscapes change over time and space, including how they can be measured, analyzed, and modeled for management needs. This article presents methodologies and selected results of analyzing spatial patterns from field data across multiple scales by examining standing dead tree (snag) processes across wildfire‐disturbed landscapes in Arizona. Our primary motivation was to illustrate a particular type of work benefiting from the coalescing of landscape ecology and GIScience, functioning at the methodological and practical overlap of these two contributing fields. Our management goals were to (1) describe spatial patterns and characteristics of snags in pairs of burned and unburned ponderosa pine forests of Arizona in four recent (within the past ten years) wildfires, (2) document bird response to wildfires by combining landscape ecology and GIScience methods, and (3) link these patterns to snag monitoring plots and cavity‐nesting bird use to predict the probability of snag use by birds and cavity nesters based on snag characteristics (snag use model). The methods and results demonstrate how integration of landscape ecology with both GIS and GIScience improves the ways to study landscapes and land management issues, in this case offering guidelines for retention of snags that provide habitat for wildlife.  相似文献   

10.
研究了在不同形式人类经济活动下的森林景观变化与西双版纳地区鸟类多样性的关系．同时对发展生产时的用地布局和维护森林景观的动态发展与提高人们生活质量和持续发展的关系进行了讨论．  相似文献   

11.
In spite of widely documented studies of deforestation rates and land use/cover changes in tropical dry forests in Mexico, relatively little is known about fragmentation patterns in such forests. This study defines the spatial distribution of landforms and land use/cover types the lower Papagayo River basin and examines their influence on fragmentation patterns and biological diversity in a tropical dry forest in that southern Pacific region. The land use/cover map was constructed from aerial photographs, Landsat TM imagery (2000) and fieldwork. Landform units were defined based on altitude, slope, lithology and morphology. Landscape fragmentation parameters were obtained using FRAGSTATS (version 3.3) considering the numbers of patches, mean, minimum and maximum patch size, edge density, total edge and connectivity. Results show tropical dry forest to be remnant vegetation (~11 per cent), characterized by isolation and low connectivity. Land use/cover types have different effects on fragmentation patterns. Agriculture and cattle raising produce similar numbers of patches, but with a different mean size; and human settlements have a scattered distribution pattern. The abandonment of rural agricultural livelihoods has favoured the expansion of secondary tropical dry forest characterized by continuity and high connectivity, which suggests a high regeneration potential from land abandonment. It can be concluded that tropical dry forest fragmentation and recovery at regional scales depend on such landscape attributes as lithology, slope, geomorphology and management.  相似文献   

12.
Public policy interventions concerning rural landscapes have grown significantly in recent decades in many developed countries and internationally, in response to a range of imperatives. These include concern for declining biodiversity, heritage and social wellbeing in the face of urbanisation, and structural change in rural economies involving both agricultural intensification and extensification. The public policy response has been a fragmented array of measures, both horizontally (across policy sectors) and vertically (across political-administrative-organisational levels). Against this background, rural landscape policy approaches are analysed in respect to their instrumentality and spatial logic, informed by Hägerstrand's concepts of territorial and spatial competence. A framework for local policy making and policy integration inspired by landscape strategy making approaches is presented and illustrated through four Danish experiments in rural landscapes of various scale and with different policy issues. Results suggest that landscape strategy making represents a promising way to improve policy integration in rural contexts but research is needed to find suitable ways to engage large scale intensive farming with the community based process.  相似文献   

13.
Analyzing temporal changes in forest amount and configuration is paramount to better design future forest management interventions. Such analyses are especially required for tropical biomes, which are usually subject to dynamic and heterogeneous land uses. Recent studies have suggested that many tropical biomes are passing through the process of “forest transition”, i.e. an overall change from forest loss to forest gain. However, this hypothesis remains scarcely tested, due to the difficulty of obtaining detailed, quantitative historical records of forest cover. In this study, we investigate 38 years of land use change in Brazil's Atlantic Forest, a biodiversity hotspot, from 1976 to 2014, using multitemporal datasets from aerial photographs and satellite images. We classified the historical series to produce land use maps and calculated a set of landscape metrics, including total forest cover, patch size, patch shape and patch connectivity. Our results indicated non-linear changes through time in forest loss and gain and also in landscape structure, which can be classified into two distinct periods. The first period (1976–1996) was marked by expressive forest loss and fragmentation, whereas the second (1996–2014) was characterized by a much less intense forest dynamics, with little deforestation being balanced by forest regeneration. We attribute the forest dynamics observed to temporal changes in socioeconomic factors, such as increasing human settlements and changes in environmental protection policies. Our results show that current forests are a heterogeneous mosaic of forests with different ages, and support the hypothesis that forest transition is occurring in Atlantic Forest landscapes.  相似文献   

14.
三峡库区腹地山区农业景观格局动态变化与转型   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  
黄孟勤  李阳兵  冉彩虹  李明珍 《地理学报》2021,76(11):2749-2764
山区农业景观格局动态分析有利于厘清农业景观发展的动态轨迹与方向,对农地用途的合理规划和管理有重要意义。本文提出了山区农业景观格局转型理论框架,并在三峡库区草堂溪流域进行了实证研究,从整体—微观的角度解析2000—2018年期间,以坡耕地、撂荒地和果园为代表的农业景观格局转型特征。研究发现：① 果园沿河谷的扩张和撂荒地在较高海拔处的扩张明显压缩了坡耕地的空间,这导致区域景观多样性的整体增强,而在局部地形上的差异明显,斑块破碎但聚集度增强;② 研究区农户耕种范围内的农业景观格局转型主要表现为耕—果转换型、综合型、部分撂荒型和撂荒型4种模式,各模式揭示了山区农业景观格局的不同发展阶段;③ 在以社会经济因素为主的驱动下,三峡库区山区的农业景观格局转型具有双向性,表现为以传统均衡分布的纯粮种植景观向河谷生态经济双赢的经果林景观和较高海拔的撂荒地转变。研究结果揭示了近年来中国山区农业景观格局演变的独特性,对库区山区农村土地利用和农业生态系统的深入认识以及库区乡村发展和生态环境的改善均有启示意义。  相似文献   

15.
Geodiversity in the Yellow River source zone   总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1  
It is a key premise of ＇ecosystem approaches＇ to natural resources management that we must have an appropriate understanding of biodiversity values, and controls upon them, if we wish to manage them effectively. These biodiversity values, and associated ecosystem functionality, vary with space and time and are tied directly to landscape-scale relationships and evolutionary traits. In riverine systems, nested hierarchical principles provide a useful platform to assess relationships between landscape components across a range of scales. These understandings are most instructively synthesized through catchment-scale analyses. This paper outlines a rationale for systematic catchment-wide appraisals of river geodiversity. An initial application of these principles is presented for the Yellow River source zone in Qinghai Province, western China. Geo-ecological relationships are outlined for five broad sections of the trunk stream, highlighting implications for the management of these individual landscape compartments and for the system as a whole.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) predicts highest species diversity in environments experiencing intermediate intensity disturbance, after an intermediate timespan. Because many landscapes comprise mosaics with complex disturbance histories, the theory implies that each patch in those mosaics should have a distinct level of diversity reflecting the magnitude of disturbance and the time since it occurred. We model changing patterns of species richness across a landscape experiencing varied scenarios of simulated disturbance in order to predict first the variation of richness through time in individual patches, based on their disturbance histories, and then the changing patterns of richness across the landscape through time, representing the cumulative impact of changing richness within the individual patches. Model outputs show that individual landscape patches have highly variable species richness through time, with the trajectory reflecting the timing, intensity and sequence of disturbances. When the results are mapped across the landscape, the resulting temporal and spatial complexity reveals a distribution of biodiversity that is strikingly contingent on the details of disturbance history. These results illustrate the danger of generalization (in either data interpretation or management decisions), as IDH actually imposes a highly variable pattern of diversity.  相似文献   

17.
森林景观模型研究新进展及其应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
森林景观模型(forest landscape models)是基于森林动态机制和干扰作用在景观尺度上模拟和预测森林时空变化特征的计算机模型。该类模型越来越多地用于森林规划、经营管理、生态资源保护与恢复及全球气候变化研究。本文通过对大量文献资料的整理,对森林景观模型的概念、尺度、类型、方法、应用和最新研究进展进行了综述。随着计算机、地理信息系统、遥感等技术的迅猛发展,森林景观模型将会越来越多地与地理信息系统、规划经营管理决策等紧密结合,未来将向服务性决策模型方向发展。  相似文献   

18.
This paper presents a site suitability model for growing coffee in the island of Jamaica and how it can be used to assist the development of the Jamaican coffee industry as it seeks to regain the presence it once had in the specialty coffee market. Home to the Jamaica Blue Mountain coffee – one of the world's most exotic and expensive coffees, the industry has struggled in face of increased competition in the specialty coffee market and increasing costs of production. This decline in competitive advantage has forced stakeholders to seek innovative means to remain viable. This suitability model integrated the perspectives of local coffee stakeholders using the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weights for the biophysical and infrastructure criteria used in the suitability analysis. The results indicated that the most suitable locations for growing coffee in the island were in the mountainous core of central and eastern Jamaica, especially in and around the Jamaica Blue Mountain coffee region and the hills of south-central Jamaica. The results also highlighted areas with limited coffee production potential across the island. This model lays the groundwork for potential applications of the model such as its use in policy making decisions and scenario planning as the industry contemplates the possible impacts of climate change on coffee growing regions across the island. This suitability model promises to be a stepping stone in the creation of novel applications of geospatial technology in agriculture within small islands.  相似文献   

19.

In Norway, on-site biological surveys precede the designation of nature reserves. Although many nature conservation areas have been affected by past human use (e.g. cattle grazing, timber harvesting), a typical biological survey may fail to portray the extent of human influence on biodiversity and vegetation dynamics. In 1984, Hystad forest (western Norway) was made a nature reserve after botanists interpreted the ecosystem 'close to untouched'. It was thought best to leave the forest alone, so no management plan was developed. It was later realized that the vegetation was changing, but the reason was not obvious. I gathered and analyzed further biological data plus information on land-use history from varied sources (e.g. cadastral maps, archive material and oral histories). The area has undergone a series of transformations since the 17th century. The present forest is no more than 100 years old, and extensive parts are much younger. The initial survey underestimated the extent of cultural impact and failed to predict vegetation change subsequent to reserve establishment, whereas a historical-geographical approach reveals that the vegetation is in a state of transition, driven primarily by a change from active farming to farm abandonment. Planning for conservation must recognize past as well as present human use of the landscape to anticipate consequent land cover responses.  相似文献   

20.
城市景观生态研究的现状与发展趋势   总被引：24，自引：5，他引：19  
曾辉  夏洁  张磊 《地理科学》2003,23(4):484-492
从城市景观格局、景观动态变化及其驱动机制、土地利用与土地覆盖变化、生态恢复与生态合理性建设和城市景观生物多样性等5个方面总结了城市景观生态研究的发展现状。从分析结果看,城市景观动态变化的驱动机制、结构与功能的生态合理性评估、格局的优化设计模式和城市发展过程中的决策支持与管理等研究领域还存在着明显的不足,难以满足城市景观生态理论和应用发展的需求,应当成为今后研究工作的重点。此外,城市景观生态研究是一个多学科的综合性研究范畴,景观生态学研究人员必须与相关学科的专家密切协作,才能够推动上述理论和应用问题的解决。  相似文献   

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