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1.
Scott Baum 《The Australian geographer》2006,37(2):233-258
Australia's large regional cities and towns display a wide variation in their adjustment to the socio-economic transitions that have occurred over the past decade. In terms of socio-economic advantage and disadvantage, these changes, often associated with globalisation, wider economic and technological restructuring, the changing demographics of the population and shifts in public policy, are not evenly dispersed across non-metropolitan regions. Such outcomes have been discussed across a variety of academic disciplines using a variety of data and methods, and the research undertaken has provided a useful grounding for contemporary studies both theoretically and methodologically. Analysis of new data provides an opportunity to extend and update our understanding. This paper presents an analysis of secondary data aimed at analysing non-metropolitan cities, towns and regions based on differential levels of socio-economic performance. Using an alternative clustering method, this paper groups non-metropolitan cities, towns and regions according to the degree to which they share similar socio-economic and demographic outcomes. These clusters form the basis of a typology representing the range of socio-economic and demographic outcomes at the non-metropolitan level. 相似文献
2.
Hugo G 《The Australian geographer》1994,25(1):1-17
"The aim of this paper is to utilise recently released census results to examine patterns of population change in non-metropolitan Australia during the 1986-91 period, focusing particularly upon the net migration component of that change. The paper presents an overview of recent trends in population change in non-metropolitan areas and then moves to an analysis of net migration patterns in non-metropolitan local government areas during the late 1980s using a Life Table Survival Ratio technique to estimate net migration. It appears that the trends observed in the early 1980s have continued into the late 1980s and early 1990s, and that overall the 'turnaround' is slowing down and becoming more diversified, more complex, and much less predictable in the 1990s." 相似文献
3.
ABSTRACTAs a tribute to the massive contribution of our friend and colleague Graeme Hugo to the population and settlement geography of Australian rural areas, this paper presents a longitudinal study from his home State. It forms part of a wider study of the long-term demographic relationships between Australia’s rapidly growing regional cities and their surrounding functional regions. Of particular interest is the question of what effect the accelerating concentration of population and economic activity into a given regional city will have for the longer term demographic sustainability of its functional region as a whole. Taking the case of Port Lincoln, regional capital of most of South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula, it examines the nature of change in the functional region over the period 1947–2011, and investigates the forces feeding, and partly counteracting, the population concentration process, informed by concepts of evolutionary economic geography. In particular it traces the demographic impact (particularly differential migration and ageing trends) of exogenous shocks to the region’s essentially primary productive economic base during the period of major change from 1981 to 2011. 相似文献
4.
John Taylor 《The Australian geographer》2003,34(3):355-370
Population estimates are rarely constructed for ecological regions. The recent establishment of a Desert Knowledge Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) generates a need for such estimates. This paper obliges by presenting Indigenous and total population projections for the Australian desert to 2016. The desert is found to be a region of relatively low population growth in national terms, contrary to the experience of many other parts of non-metropolitan Australia where population decline is prevalent. Also noted is the markedly different growth observed for the Indigenous and non-Indigenous components of the desert population, with the former projected to increase much more rapidly over time. It is likely that virtually all of the increase in the desert population over the next 15 years will arise from natural increase among Indigenous peoples. As a consequence, the Indigenous share of the regional population is projected to rise from 20 per cent in 2001 to 24 per cent by 2016, with attendant consequences for social and economic policy. 相似文献
5.
The period 1996-2001 has witnessed a refocusing of population growth on Sydney and Melbourne as both cities have developed significant concentrations of so-called 'new economy' jobs and taken on, to greater or lesser extents, the characteristics of global cities. The consequence of these trends, for Sydney most particularly, is population growth. This paper establishes this demographic reality by describing recent demographic trends in Sydney and possible future scenarios for Sydney's population, given differing levels of fertility, internal migration and international migration. A related future trend is also traced--that the number of households in Sydney will grow more rapidly than the population due to changes in household structure. This raises the issue of how and where these households will be accommodated, given the relative land shortage in the Sydney Statistical Division and given that there is no doubt that planners in New South Wales will be attempting to maintain and enhance Sydney's status as a global city. In sum, the paper argues that Sydney planners should be preparing for growth of around one million people in the next 20 years and a further one million in the following 30 years. To maintain that potential future residents of Sydney can be redirected to other parts of New South Wales is a vain hope. 相似文献
6.
GRAEME HUGO 《New Zealand geographer》1999,55(2):25-35
New Zealand origin academics have played a key role in the academic study of Australia's population in the post-war period. The paper argues that New Zealanders have contributed not only to the furthering of knowledge of the processes of change in the Australian population but have been important in the teaching of population geography in Australian universities, made inputs into policy relating to population and been influential in the development of the Australian Population Association. Major contributions have been made by New Zealanders not only in the traditionally strong areas of population geography such as internal and international migration but also in the areas of fertility, mortality and ageing. 相似文献
7.
上海市常住人口增长趋势研究院基于劳动年龄人口的情景模拟 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
国内外大城市的快速发展很大程度上依赖于劳动力的充分供给,制定合适的人口发展战略及政策至关重要。本文基于队列要素法,以劳动年龄人口规模作为重要变量对上海市人口规模进行情景模拟,依据结果对上海市未来常住人口发展趋势进行判断。结果显示,外来劳动年龄人口对上海市未来发展有重要支撑作用,上海应该给予外来迁入人口更多的关注和肯定,而不是盲目地限制;同时,判定上海市2040年常住人口规模将增长到3000万～3870万之间。本方法可以广泛应用于与上海具有相似人口年龄结构和人口规模变化趋势的大型城市和特大型城市,对中小型城市的人口规模模拟和政策制定也具有一定的参考意义。 相似文献
8.
In an increasingly urbanised and ageing world the spatial distribution of an older population is a matter of growing scholarly and policy interest. Much of the research on this topic has tended to draw on one of two key measures: structural ageing, or the ratio of older cohorts to the rest of the population, or numeric ageing, which simply counts the number of older people without reference to the rest of the population. This paper argues that, on their own, these measures have limitations, and that considerable value lies in assessing the interplay between numeric and structural ageing measures. The population ageing matrix, a theoretical framework that classifies the demographic dynamics of population ageing across metropolitan areas, is presented and examined through the case study of Perth, Western Australia. The value of the matrix to reveal patterns and trends missed by analyses of single measures is investigated and areas that are experiencing changes in the composition and size of the ageing demographic are identified. The paper also reflects on the implications of these findings for policy and planning. 相似文献
9.
基于结构方程模型的中国县域人口老龄化影响机制 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用2000年和2010年分县人口普查数据,分析中国县域人口老龄化的空间格局及变化,采用结构方程模型拟合人口老龄化影响因子之间的路径关系,探讨中国县域人口老龄化的影响机制。结果表明:内蒙古包头至云南腾冲是中国县域人口老龄化较为清晰的空间分界线,其东南部老龄化高值县区连片集中,低值县区夹杂其间;西北全域老龄化率普遍较低,仅在北缘横亘一条中值县区连绵带。结构方程模型的拟合结果很好地解释了中国县域人口老龄化空间差异的影响机制。迁移率、预期寿命和生育率是人口老龄化进程的内生因素,其中,预期寿命对县域人口老龄化有正向效应,迁移率和生育率则对县域人口老龄化有负向效应。社会经济、家庭状况和自然环境等因素是人口老龄化进程的外生因素,对中国县域人口老龄化有显著的直接和间接效应。收入增加、社会发展、居住条件改善以及环境舒适性提高等推高县域人口老龄化水平,城镇化水平提高则降低县域人口老龄化水平。 相似文献
10.
In New Zealand, population change is interlinked with regional development. Places growing in population attract regional investment, while regional investment—or lack thereof—can change migration patterns. However, to determine the appropriate response to population change for a community, it is important to understand that population change involves much more than “just” migration. Specifically, it involves interactions between the three components of population change: natural change (births minus deaths), net migration (international and internal) and population ageing (changing cohort size). For example, migration can be negative, but growth can be positive due to underlying natural increase or growth in cohort size. Responses need to differ, depending on these drivers. The goal of this article is to provide new insights into these interactions using data for 275 cities, towns and rural centres (hereafter “urban places”) in New Zealand for the period 1976 to 2013. The results show that natural change has been consistently positive for most urban places up to the present, although projections indicate that in the future this component will become negative across much of the country. At the same time, net migration shows considerable spatial variation, not only in terms of volume, but also direction (negative or positive), which differs markedly by age. A net gain of people of retirement age can offset a net loss of young adults to deliver overall growth, and vice‐versa, but the two have very different implications for longer term growth. An analysis of the drivers of net migration using GIS and machine learning techniques provides an indication of the importance of economic conditions (land‐use and access to markets), lifestyle, access to essential services (hospitals and education) and their interaction with age in regional change. The results show that population age is the best predictor of migration. Younger people are moving to cities for tertiary education and work and older people near or in retirement are moving to smaller lifestyle towns but also want to be close to amenities such as hospitals and international airports. The research also shows that natural lifestyle characteristics (landscape and climate), in combination with age are just as important as economic conditions for understanding migration. Regional development, such as infrastructure that helps business (ports and services) is important for the working age population but not necessarily the retirement age group. When regional development, age/life‐cycle stage and lifestyle come together, such as in Queenstown and Tauranga, net migration gain is high. 相似文献
11.
ABSTRACTIn the past, population growth in Australia's Northern Territory, as in other peripheral parts of high-income countries, has been driven by internal labour migration and migration from outside of Australia. These have been contributing to the high population turnover experienced in peripheral areas. Since 2010, the Northern Territory has experienced low (and even negative) population growth, and public policy is currently focused on migration as a lever to reverse this trend. However, the extent to which the characteristics of migrants influence the potential for longer-term population growth is poorly understood. This paper uses a new method to analyse the contributions of various types of migrants to both population turnover and retention. Two major sets of findings emerge: First, the significance of separating newer in-migrants from longer-term residents when analysing migration patterns; and secondly, the contribution of age, gender, Indigenous status, international origin, wages and industry of employment to the Northern Territory's population turnover. The research suggests that current forms of migration favour people who are likely to stay for only short periods, and have high wage demands. The main policy inference is that long-term population growth will likely not eventuate unless new forms of migration can be stimulated. 相似文献
12.
This paper analyzes the demographic processes that contribute to population growth and redistribution in a multiregional system using a new method. The method incorporates a historical perspective that can be used to trace dynamic population processes as they evolve over time. It uses an open multiregional projection model framework in identifying the contributions to regional growth made by each of the principal demographic components of change: fertility, mortality, immigration, emigration, in-migration, and out migration. At the same time, the method recognizes the importance of disaggregating the native-born and foreign-born populations. Available public data and indirect estimation techniques are used to develop the data inputs for the projection model, with which the regional population changes for each 5-year period between 1950 and 1990 were reconstructed. Regional growth rates for the foreign-born and native-born populations are partitioned into the separate demographic components of change, and the projection model identifies the separate contributions to regional growth made by each population. This allows a direct comparison of the impact of immigration with those of corresponding native-born contributions effected through internal migration and natural increases. Finally, the application of the method allows the identification of the contribution that 'recent' (post-1965) immigrant cohorts have made to the composition of the youngest age groups in each region, and also to simulate the impacts of zero immigration scenarios on regional growth. 相似文献
13.
Billet J Rougier H 《Revue de géographie alpine / publieé par l'Institute de géographie alpine (Université de Grenoble)》1984,72(1):9-20
Recent demographic trends in the Alpine areas of Switzerland are examined. Areas of population loss and gain are identified, and the importance of tourism for areas experiencing population growth is established. Efforts to support the demographic and economic viability of mountain areas are described. 相似文献
14.
In recent years, the rapid growth of population in Haikou and Sanya has caused extensive concern about the carrying capacity of Hainan Province. To formulate scientific population and environmental policies, it is necessary to research the relationship between population, carrying capacity and economic growth. In this paper, three indicators, grain production, nutrient composition of agricultural products and water resources, are used to measure carrying capacity quantitatively; the employment elasticity coefficient method is used to set the employment elasticity coefficient and the growth rate of regional GDP to estimate the total population needed to support economic growth; PADIS-INT population forecasting software that has parameters to track total fertility rate and net migration rate is used to predict demographic changes. The results show that, as of 2050, the total population of Hainan Province will not have exceeded the upper limit of the carrying capacity of land and water resources. In general, there is no overpopulation problem in the province, but there may be structural problems related to population, such as a large proportion of elderly people, labor shortages, and a high social dependency ratio. It is suggested that the local government should adopt positive population policies, improve the management of natural resources and the environment, and guide the balanced development of population in the province. 相似文献
15.
Has the notion of ‘sea change’ and its considerable implications for non-metropolitan coastal Australia been exaggerated? In this article alternative perspectives of ‘sea change’ in Australia are reviewed, and the policy implications of each assessed. One perspective regards migration to coastal areas beyond the capital cities as incidental to continued metropolitan primacy and unlikely to affect or change Australia's overall urban or economic structure. The other considers the movement as a significant and enduring process with major environmental and socio-economic repercussions. With reference to research conducted for the National Sea Change Taskforce, the article finds partial support for both positions, leading to a more revealing understanding of ‘sea change’ in Australia. A set of policy responses, sensitive to the particular qualities of Australian coastal environments and communities, are proposed for consideration by all three tiers of government. 相似文献
16.
The notion of sponge cities has attracted considerable attention in the media, in the policy arena, and in academia. It rests on the notion that some regional centres ‘soak up’ population and business from a ‘pool’ of surrounding areas, thereby appearing as ‘oases’ of growth in areas of population decline. Specifically, the notion of sponge cities rests on two premises and a deduction: some large towns and provincial cities are growing; surroundings areas are losing population; therefore, the growth results from the relocation of people from outlying farms and smaller towns to the nearby growing centres. Despite its popularity, the notion has largely gone untested. Investigation of migration trends in Dubbo and Tamworth (New South Wales, Australia), frequently cited as sponge cities, over the period 1986–2001 shows that the reality is much more complex than the simple metaphor suggests. The contribution made by the ‘pool’ to the growth of the regional ‘sponges’ is relatively minor. This calls into question the value of the notion of a sponge city—and the use of metaphors in social science more generally. 相似文献
17.
Evaluating yearly net migration for the Federal Republic of Germany establishes the importance of demographic restructuring and government policies as explanations for the counterurbanization phenomenon. Counterurbanization, the spatial demographic deconcentration of regional population, is measured as an inverse relationship between the net migration rate and population sizes of functional urban regions. A counterurbanization pattern filtered-down from older to younger age-groups of the population, and appears related to an increasing preference for small-sized regions with natural amenities. For foreigners, a counterurbanization direction of movement can be explained by changes in immigration laws. While counterurbanization may be slowing down during the 1980s in certain developed countries, such as the United States, in the Federal Republic the phenomenon intensifies throughout the 1970–84 time period. Based on broad national demographic changes in combination with agespecific patterns of movement, this strong counterurbanization trend should continue well into the future. 相似文献
18.
Throughout the last decade, the Australian economy has experienced its second longest period of uninterrupted prosperity in recorded history. The paper argues that this prosperity is sourced from an extraordinary surge in finance-based economic activity along Australia's eastern seaboard, especially in the Sydney region. Population growth in the Sydney basin has further fuelled the region's economic growth. The spatialised nature of this prosperity has produced a major shift in distributional outcomes across Australian regions and among households. Sydney-based households, especially those in inner 'global Sydney' neighbourhoods, have had access to high rates of job creation and sustained increases in income and house values. On the other hand, non-metropolitan households away from Sydney--those in regional and rural Australia--have experienced largely negative consequences as historical inter-sectoral and spatial redistribution mechanisms have been dismantled. The paper shows how divergent experiences of the new prosperity have produced an unstable political landscape in regional and rural Australia. It concludes by urging further research into the spatialised nature of economic changes in Australia, especially research that is conscious of distributional flows and outcomes. 相似文献
19.
中国人口老龄化区域差异及驱动机制研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
基于中国第五、六次人口普查数据,分析中国省域人口老龄化的程度、速度、社会经济影响、空间差异及其驱动机制。结果表明：① 2000~2010年中国人口老龄化处于初级老龄化阶段且不断加深,区域差异缩小,东部地区低速增长,中西部地区老龄化与养老负担快速增加。老年人口密度属较低密度区,从东向西呈梯度降低。② 中国省域人口老龄化程度及空间布局是人口自然增长、人口机械增长、经济水平等因素相互调节与空间分异的综合结果。③ 各机制系数空间异质性的综合作用促使老龄化大致由南北向分异转变为东西向分异的空间格局。省际人口迁移从根本上制约如今的中国人口老龄化空间格局。 相似文献
20.
《The Journal of geography》2012,111(3):394-403
Abstract Urbanization in China is proceeding rapidly in step with population growth and a structural shift in employment from farming to industrial, commercial, and service jobs. Two additional causal factors drive the recent rapid urbanization. First, policies related to migration and household registration have been relaxed to allow more farmers to move to cities as transient workers. Second, economic reforms have resulted in new rules and regulations that promote foreign investment and trade activities in coastal areas. The results are seen in the emergence of four extended metropolitan regions in coastal areas (Shanghai-Nanjing, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, Canton-Hong Kong, and Dalian-Shenyang). These metro regions have markedly different demographic, employment, migration, and foreign investment patterns from other parts of China. Such patterns presage the likely future form of China's urbanization as the country enters a period of accelerated urbanization. 相似文献