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1.
In the time of the flooding, rural people in Bangladesh suffer from the lingering effects of labor market disruption and income deficiency. This study shows a model based analysis on the research question, ??what coping strategies are followed by the flooded households in Bangladesh and how???. Data are collected through a three stage stratified random sampling technique on 595 flooded and rural households??. Survey is carried out aftermath of the flood in the year 2005, from four different districts in Bangladesh. A major proportion of households are found to borrow money or resources from informal sources, such as nearby shops or the pharmacy, friends or relatives, or local money lenders, to buy food items and other essentials. A censored tobit model analysis shows that households initiate coping with borrowing money after the realization of floods, and gradually lead to cope with savings and selling assets as the duration of flood increases. 相似文献
2.
Informal settlements are an important source of affordable housing and economic activity in developing cities. Research shows that informal settlements are at high risk from natural hazards and the effects of global climate change. Conditions within such settlements are diverse, however, and it is important that we understand the variation in risk across households. In this paper, we study the uneven terrain of risk to localized hazards in informal settlements in Kolkata, India. Our research question is, which factors predict household exposure to monsoon rain hazards? We surveyed 414 households living in low-lying informal settlements on the city’s periphery. Using a variety of predictors, we estimate binary logistic models for two outcome variables tied to monsoon rain: home flooding and home leaking. We find that household exposure varies significantly across our study population and follows predictable patterns based on socio-economic and infrastructure variables. The home flooding model results show that households with higher incomes are less likely to flood, but in situ births increase exposure. Households living in structures made of more permanent materials are less likely to flood, as are households living near infrastructure. The home leaking model shows that households with relative financial stability are less likely to leak, as are those that have been living in the settlement for longer periods of time and whose houses are made of better quality materials. These findings indicate that extensive risk in informal settlements is unevenly experienced and that policies intended to reduce disaster and climate risk should focus on the lowest-income households, the provision of infrastructure, and security of tenure. 相似文献
3.
Quantitative methods for estimating flood fatalities: towards the introduction of loss-of-life estimation in the assessment of flood risk 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Risk, including flood risk, can be defined as ??the combination of the probability of an event and its consequences??. Assessing and managing the risk from flooding should explicitly include the estimation of impacts to people. Extensive research is currently ongoing looking at both quantitative and qualitative approaches for assessing flood impacts on people. Although there is some literature available on such approaches, examples of methodological and routinely applications of these methodologies as part of flood risk assessments are rare. This paper focuses on quantitative approaches for estimating impacts of flooding to people, notably on methods for assessing fatality numbers associated with flooding. Three methods for assessing losses of life are discussed in detail. The methods discussed here constitute the forefront of research in Canada, UK and The Netherlands. These methods provide an assessment of the physical consequences of flooding on people and can be used to introduce the impacts to people as quantitative metric for the assessment of flood risk. In this paper, the three methodologies are discussed and applied in a UK case study reproducing the 1953 East Coast flood event. This study aims to provide a comprehensive comparison on both the reliability and the applicability of the methods. We analyse possible added values on using of these methods in systematic analyses, aiming to provide guidelines for applying these methods for flood fatality risk assessment. 相似文献
4.
G. Wikan 《GeoJournal》1982,6(6):561-569
There is a complex relationship between absenteeism on the one hand and crop cultivation and standard of living on the other. This article investigates how the absence of able-bodied men from rural areas influences the pattern of subsistence crop cultivation. It shows that lack of male manpower might have effects on production of crops for households in two villages in Botswana. Further, this in most households has effects on the standard of living.However, the exact effect of absence of male manpower differs from region to region and from household to household. This article shows that factors such as population pressure, physical conditions for crop cultivation, the organization of work, characteristics of the absent worker system and the absent worker household must be taken into consideration when determining whether the absent worker system has consequences on crop cultivation and standard of living. 相似文献
5.
Coping with floods in the city of Dresden,Germany 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
During August 2002 and again in March 2005 as well as in April 2006 the city of Dresden was hit by floods. The flood in 2002
was an extreme event, only comparable to flooding in 1862 and 1890 in Dresden. The flood discharge in 2006 was the second
highest discharge since 1940 at the Dresden gauge although its return period was only about 15 years. This special situation
enables a comparison of the preparedness of authorities and households in the flood endangered city of Dresden in 2002 after
a long period of relatively low flood discharges and in 2005/2006 just a few years after a severe flood event. Before August
2002, the flood risk awareness and flood preparedness of authorities and households in Dresden was low. The inundation channels
and the Elbe riverbed had not been maintained well. Just 13% of the households had undertaken building precautionary measures.
The severe flood situation as well as the low flood preparedness led to tremendous damage, e.g., losses to residential buildings
amounted to 304 million €. After 2002, the municipal authorities in Dresden developed a new flood management concept and many
households were motivated to undertake precautionary measures. Building precautionary measures had been actually undertaken
by 67% of the households before the floods in 2005 and 2006. Flood damage was significantly lower, due to the less severe
flood situations and the much better preparedness. It is an important challenge for the future to keep preparedness at a high
level also without recurrent flood experiences. 相似文献
6.
Climate change and increased risk for the insurance sector: a global perspective and an assessment for the Netherlands 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. As a consequence, economic losses
caused by natural catastrophes could increase significantly. This will have considerable consequences for the insurance sector.
On the one hand, increased risk from weather extremes requires assessing expected changes in damage and including adequate
climate change projections in risk management. On the other hand, climate change can also bring new business opportunities
for insurers. This paper gives an overview of the consequences of climate change for the insurance sector and discusses several
strategies to cope with and adapt to increased risks. The particular focus is on the Dutch insurance sector, as the Netherlands
is extremely vulnerable to climate change, especially with regard to extreme precipitation and flooding. Current risk sharing
arrangements for weather risks are examined while potential new business opportunities, adaptation strategies, and public–private
partnerships are identified. 相似文献
7.
Burush is a small village in the N Sahelian Zone of the Sudan, whose population are basically sedentary agriculturists. The recurring drought conditions of the last two decades have significantly influenced the local resource base, so that the subsistence of the majority of the households was highly challenged. Nevertheless, the people are still surviving and resisting. The explanation of this resistence can be sought in the endogenous coping mechanisms adopted by the people. One of these mechanisms is migration, especially the seasonal labour migration of the heads and grown-up members of households, which used, even in good years, to be highly integrated in the strategies of survival of the majority of households. However under the recurring crop failures and the growing competition in the seasonal labour opportunities, this seasonal migration is changing gradually into stays of longer duration in the traditional destinations of seasonal labour. On the other hand, the male members of households are actively involved in migration of long duration, especially into the urban centres. Yet, the constributions of these migrant members to the subsistence of their households are limited, because of the rising costs of living in uurban centres as compared with the incomes. The rehabilitation of Burush lies obviously in the development of long-term strategies which aim at strengthening the endogenous resilience mechanisms. 相似文献
8.
Herslund Lise Byskov Jalayer Fatemeh Jean-Baptiste Nathalie J&#;rgensen Gertrud Kabisch Sigrun Kombe Wilbard Lindley Sarah Nyed Patrik Karlsson Pauleit Stephan Printz Andreas Vedeld Trond 《Natural Hazards》2015,82(2):149-172
In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.
相似文献9.
Lise Byskov Herslund Fatemeh Jalayer Nathalie Jean-Baptiste Gertrud Jørgensen Sigrun Kabisch Wilbard Kombe Sarah Lindley Patrik Karlsson Nyed Stephan Pauleit Andreas Printz Trond Vedeld 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(2):149-172
In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation. 相似文献
10.
During Typhoon Morakot which hit Taiwan from 6 to 9 August, 2009, Kaohsiung City was highly affected by devastating debris-flows and flooding. Recorded casualties were 699 deaths and 1,766 damaged homes, mostly in the mountainous areas of Kaohsiung City. Due to a largely malfunctioning or absent early-warning system, residents in those mountainous villages were required to rely on individual- and/or community-based capacities to evacuate and respond to debris-flow-related disasters. Hence, this study investigates the response behaviour of selected debris-flow-affected communities in Kaohsiung City, based on a preparedness awareness action and affect model. Key results from the survey highlight that only 13.8 % of the households received formal (institutional) early warning, whereas 86.2 % households had to rely on their intrinsic senses and indigenous knowledge to recognise the onset of debris-flows in their villages during Typhoon Morakot. Among those households who did not receive formal early warning, 10 % of the households received previous disaster education, 17 % had previous disaster experience, and 73 % did have neither disaster education nor disaster experience. Furthermore, households with disaster education were among those who were best prepared and knew best how to evacuate and respond to debris-flow-related disasters followed by households with disaster experiences. Finally, findings from the survey and selected key informants’ interviews identified that the response behaviour of communities ought to be enhanced through the following measures: conduction of hydro-meteorological-related disaster education, improved participatory risk communication and enhanced recognition of communities as vital actors during a disaster to provide local knowledge and support to relief operations. 相似文献
11.
This article evaluates some of the factors which limit the human benefits of hazard warnings, with specific reference to flood
warnings, and we conclude by suggesting ways of enhancing these benefits. We focus mainly upon the economic benefits generated
by flood damage savings by households that warnings facilitate; health effects of flooding and flood warnings; and the effects
of warnings on loss of life and physical injury. Our results, based partly upon surveys of flooded households, reveal that
economic benefits are currently more limited than we previously thought, but that for several reasons these benefits are likely
to be under-estimated. We argue that the intangible benefits to public health, safety and security must also be taken into
account in decisions about investment in flood warnings. In England and Wales, the public’s response to flood warnings is
currently low and is a key benefit-limiting factor which could begin to undermine a recent major shift in national flood risk
management policy towards a more people-centred, portfolio approach in which changing human behaviour is viewed as important.
Using a trans-disciplinary approach, we discuss the evidence and literature surrounding this poor response, and suggest a
number of ways in which the issue may be addressed in future. 相似文献
12.
Many regions of the world are experiencing an increase in frequency and intensity of floods. There has been increasing understanding among emergency preparedness and natural disaster planners that rapid urbanization is enhancing the risk from river flooding in urban areas. Many regions of Canada have been exposed to particularly severe floods over the course of the last few years, much of this due to land-use change. This study aims at understanding the risk of flooding for the City of Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, which is located in the Fraser River Delta. The paper presents a fast, efficient and reliable method that can be used to produce vegetation maps from advanced very high resolution radiometer images and SPOT vegetation maps. A 10-day maximum normalized difference vegetation index maps were produced to assess the dynamics of the urbanization process in Vancouver. Remotely sensed data show a significant decrease in vegetation cover in the Metro Vancouver City between 1984 and 2012. The proposed method can be used as an effective tool for raising early land-use change awareness and assist with flood risk management. Flood risk management has a substantial impact on human health and well-being in urban areas, and this flood risk information will be used to assess the impact of flooding and explore the complex relationship between land-use change, urbanization, flooding and impact on urban dwellers. 相似文献
13.
Flood management decision-makers face significant challenges as the climate changes. The perceptions of those affected by floods are critical to the successful implementation of adaptation responses; risk perceptions are affected by how information is communicated and, in turn, perceptions influence expectations on flood risk managers to respond. The links between flood experience, risk perception, and responses by individual households were examined in the Hutt Valley, New Zealand, through a household survey, a workshop and interviews with local government practitioners. Two propositions were tested: (1) that flood experience can influence flood risk perceptions; and (2) that flood experience can stimulate increased risk reduction and adaptation actions where changing climate risk is likely. Perceptions of responsibility for flood management were also examined. The study found that previous flood experience contributes to heightened perception of risk, increased preparedness of households, greater willingness to make household-level changes, greater communication with councils, and more advocacy for spatial planning to complement existing structural protection. Flood-affected households had a stronger preference for central government and communities having flood risk responsibilities, in addition to local government. Those who lacked experience were more likely to be normalised to their prior benign experiences and thus optimistic about flood consequences. These results suggest that harnessing positive aspects of experience and communication of changing risk through engagement strategies could help shift the focus from citizens’ expectation that governments will always provide protection, to a citizen–local government–central government dialogue about the changing character of flood risk and its implications, and build a ‘risk conscious’ society in which ‘sharing and bearing’ is considered desirable. 相似文献
14.
Paul William Kojo Yankson Alex Barimah Owusu George Owusu John Boakye-Danquah Jacob Doku Tetteh 《Natural Hazards》2017,89(2):661-689
Coastal towns along the coast of Africa are among the most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as flooding and sea level rise. Yet, because coastal conditions in many parts of the region are poorly understood, knowledge on which population groups are at the most risk is less known, particularly in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) of Ghana, where the capital city Accra is located. Without adequate information about the risk levels and why, the implementation of locally appropriate adaptation plans may be less effective. This study enriches our understanding of the levels of flood risks along the coast of GAMA and contributes knowledge to improve understanding of place-specific adaptation plans. The study uses data from a 300-household survey, stakeholder meetings, and interviews with local community leaders to construct an integrated vulnerability index. The index includes seven components made up of: dwelling type; house and house environment; household socioeconomic characteristics; experience and perception of flood risk; household and community flood adaptation strategies; house location, and physical characteristics. Our findings show that exposure to floods, particularly from local flash floods is relatively high in all communities. However, significant differences in sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the communities were observed due to differences in location, socioeconomic characteristics, and perception of risks to flooding and sea level rise. The complexity of factors involved in the determination of local-level vulnerability requires that the implementation of adaptation strategies needs to involve cross-sectorial partnerships, involving local communities, in building a comprehensive multi-risk adaptation strategy. 相似文献
15.
Poverty, vulnerability and the impact of flooding
in the Limpopo Province, South Africa 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The article evaluates household vulnerability after the 2000 flood in two poor communities of the Limpopo Province, South
Africa. The study analyses the forms of vulnerability which disasters such as floods present. Using data gathered from a survey
of households, the study presents the impacts, coping and adapting strategies of households after the 2000 flood. The article
argues that beyond the concern over socio-economic circumstances as the major determinant of household vulnerability, the
management of the disaster can serve to perpetuate vulnerability. 相似文献
16.
Current flood protection policies in the Netherlands are based on design water levels. This concept does not allow for a proper evaluation of costs and benefits of flood protection. Hence, research is being carried out on the introduction of a flood risk approach, which looks into both the probability of flooding and the consequences of flooding. This research is being carried out within the framework of a major project called the Floris project (FLOod RISk in the Netherlands). To assess the probability of flooding the Floris project distinguishes different failure modes for dikes and structures within the dike ring. Based on a probabilistic analysis of both loads and resistance the probability of failure is determined for each failure mode. Subsequently the probabilities of failure for different failure modes and dike sections are integrated into an estimate of the probability of flooding of the dike ring as a whole. In addition the Floris project looks into the different consequences of flooding, specifically the economic damages and the number of casualties to be expected in case of flooding of a particular dike ring. The paper describes the approach in the Floris project to assess the flood risk of dike rings in the Netherlands. One of the characteristics of the Floris project is the explicit attention to different types of uncertainties in assessing the probability of flooding. The paper discusses the different starting-points adopted and presents an outline on how the Floris project will deal with uncertainties in the analysis of weak spots in a dike ring as well as in the cost benefit analysis of flood alleviation measures. 相似文献
17.
Forecasting flood risk in the Indus River system using hydrological parameters and its damage assessment 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Hydrological parameters are among the widely used parameters in assessing flood risk. On the other hand, anticipated flood damages, in case of flooding, are estimated with the help of expected losses in areas nearer to the watercourse. The major source of almost every-year flooding in Pakistan is the Indus River system that comprises the major rivers of Pakistan. We first use observed data to construct simulated data models based on various probability distributions namely normal, lognormal, Weibull, largest extreme value, gamma-3, and log-Pearson type-3 distributions and thereby compute probable maximum flood. Secondly, we perform log-Pearson type-3 analysis with and without historic adjustment on the observed data series of 17 years to forecast floods with return periods T of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years. We also categorize the river structures based on the risk of flooding. Lastly, we estimate risk of flood damages in terms of expected losses based on observed data. The present study reveals that the log-Pearson type-3 distribution is relatively better for estimating probable maximum flood. We use exceedence probability to assess the risk of flooding in the various structures of the said rivers. The analysis shows that flood damages in Pakistan may be reduced by increasing the design capacity of the structures and also by giving awareness to people about the flood-generating factors. 相似文献
18.
The majority of the diamond mines in Botswana were discovered as a direct consequence of soil sampling for indicator minerals such as garnet and picroilmenite. Over the past 60 years the application of soil sampling for indicator minerals as a primary exploration tool has declined while aeromagnetic surveys have increased in popularity. The rate of kimberlite discovery in Botswana has declined significantly. The obvious magnetic kimberlites have been discovered. The future of new kimberlite discoveries is once again dependent on soil sampling for kimberlite indicator minerals. It is essential to have an in depth understanding of the transport mechanism of kimberlite indicator minerals from the kimberlite to the modern day surface of the Kalahari Formation, which is solely via termite bioturbation. Field observations indicate that the concentration of indicator minerals at surface is directly dependent on the physical characteristics and capabilities as well as behavioural patterns of the particular termite species dominant in the exploration area. The discovery of future diamond mines in Botswana will be closely associated with an in depth understanding of the relationship between size and concentration of kimberlite indicator minerals in surface soils and the seasonal behaviour, depth penetration capabilities, earthmoving efficiencies and mandible size of the dominant termite species within the exploration area. Large areas in Botswana, where kimberlite indicator minerals recovered from soil samples have been described as distal from source or background, will require re-evaluation. Without detailed termite studies the rate of discovery will continue to decline.
相似文献19.
Testing the use of a ‘questionnaire survey instrument’ to investigate public perceptions of tsunami hazard and risk in Sydney,Australia 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
The Indian Ocean tsunami (IOT) of December 2004 has demonstrated that the coasts of Australia are vulnerable to tsunami flooding.
As a consequence of the IOT, the Australian Federal Treasurer announced in 2005 that the Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience
Australia will jointly develop and implement the Australian Tsunami Warning System. Effective response to tsunami warnings
is highly dependent on public awareness and perception of tsunami hazard and risk. At present, no efforts have been made to
investigate and publish public awareness of tsunami hazard and risk and as such, emergency managers have little idea of the
likely challenges to effecting appropriate tsunami risk management. We develop a short questionnaire survey instrument and
trial that instrument in order to investigate its suitability for generating information about the perceptions of tsunami
hazard and risk in the Sydney region. We found that the design, layout and format of the questionnaire were suitable for our
purpose and should be useful for generating information appropriate to emergency management agencies tasked with the responsibility
of developing tsunami education campaigns and risk mitigation strategies in Australia. However, certain limitations, such
as individual question design and format, should be considered before a much larger survey of various stakeholders is conducted. 相似文献
20.
Han Song Tang Steven I-Jy Chien Marouane Temimi Cheryl Ann Blain Qu Ke Liuhui Zhao Simon Kraatz 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):141-163
Catastrophic flooding associated with sea-level rise and change of hurricane patterns has put the northeastern coastal regions of the United States at a greater risk. In this paper, we predict coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay and analyze the resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic method is applied to estimate inland flooding due to precipitation. The entire flooded areas with a range of storm intensity (i.e., no storm, 10-, and 50-year storm) and sea-level rise (i.e., current, 10-, and 50-year sea level) are thus determined. The populations in the study region in 10 and 50 years are predicted using an economic-demographic model. With the aid of ArcGIS, detailed analysis of affected population and transportation systems including highway networks, railroads, and bridges is presented for all of the flood scenarios. It is concluded that sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods, and such a flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County but more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey. 相似文献