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1.
城市交通与土地利用间的协调发展是科学调控城市发展的重要环节。在基于地租理论的微观区位决策与土地利用与交通系统宏观动态交互理论基础上,回顾了城市交通与土地利用一体化模型的发展过程及不同依据下的分类特征,对空间相互作用和重力模型理论模型、空间经济学理论模型、随机效用和离散选择模型和基于行为的微观模型4类一体化模型的优劣进行了系统梳理分析。分析表明,具有合理理论基础、科学数据处理方法、较高模型精度和政策评估适用性的一体化模型仍存在巨大发展空间。近年来西方学者研究趋向微观化、综合化和简约化,而国内一体化模型发展相对滞后,要求模型理论与综合实证开发的进一步突破。特别是在新数据、新交通技术、国土空间规划体系背景下,城市交通与土地利用一体化模型将从“空间”模型向“时空间”模型转变;从“宏观”集计模型向“微观”行为模型转变;从“交通-土地”模型向“综合系统”模型转变;从“样本数据”模型向“大数据”模型转变;从“交通规划”应用向“国土空间规划”应用转变。旨在对城市交通与土地利用一体化模型的一般结构、原理类型、当前面临的问题和挑战进行深入剖析,以推进一体化模型在中国的研究与开发。 相似文献
2.
This article explores the dimensions of rapid urbanization in the Phoenix Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) over the past thirty years with respect to land use change. We devote primary attention to developing an understanding of what land transformations took place, the extent to which they occurred, and where they occurred. Our findings indicate that 32 percent of the Phoenix SMSA changed between 1970 and 2000. More than half of the overall change was from agriculture to some form of urban land use, and although a large percentage of the region remains open desert the parcels of desert are increasingly fragmented. This has significant implications for urban ecology and biodiversity. The growth indicates that rather than a pattern that reflects the agglomeration effects of a polycentric metropolis, the central business district of the City of Phoenix dominates the region. This has implications with respect to employment patterns, traffic congestion, and urban air quality and climate. 相似文献
3.
Global and regional environmental changes such as land use and climate change have significantly integrated and interactive effects on forest. These integrated effects will undoubtedly alter the distribution, function and succession processes of forest ecosystems. In order to adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and integrated effects. In this study, we proposed a framework by using coupling models to gain a better understanding of the complex ecological processes. We combined an agent-based model for land use and land cover change (ABM/LUCC), an ecosystem process model (PnET-II), and a forest dynamic landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate the change of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) which was driven by land use and climate change factors for the period of 2010–2050 in Taihe County of southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. We conducted a series of land use and climate change scenarios to compare the differences in forest AGB. The results show that: (1) land use, including town expansion, deforestation and forest conversion and climate change are likely to influence forest AGB in the near future in Taihe County. (2) Though climate change will make a good contribution to an increase in forest AGB, land use change can result in a rapid decrease in the forest AGB and play a vital role in the integrated simulation. The forest AGB under the integrated scenario decreased by 53.7% (RCP2.6 + land use), 57.2% (RCP4.5 + land use), and 56.9% (RCP8.5 + land use) by 2050, which is in comparison to the results under separate RCPs without land use disturbance. (3) The framework can offer a coupled method to better understand the complex and interactive ecological processes, which may provide some supports for adapting to land use and climate change, improving and optimizing plantation structure and function, and developing measures for sustainable forest management. 相似文献
4.
长江三角洲地区城镇时空动态格局及其环境效应 总被引：18，自引：10，他引：18
利用多期遥感影像对长江三角洲地区城镇近15年来的时空变化特征进行了分析,揭示了地区城镇化的空间格局与其生态环境的相互关系。结果表明:80年代中后期至2000年之间以农业景观为主的农田、林地显著减少,城镇迅速扩张,呈集中化趋势。前后五年的土地利用动态变化的构成比例不同,后期城市扩展的速度明显减慢。土地利用的动态变化引起了环境的一系列变化,其扩展方式直接影响到局地气候及区域空气质量。 相似文献
5.
以土地利用变化和气候变化为特征的全球和区域环境变化及其影响已经成为国际社会和公众关注的焦点,同时也是土地科学、全球变化科学和全球生态学关注的关键问题。由于土地、气候和森林生态系统之间存在着复杂而密切的关系,土地利用变化和气候变化将不可避免地对森林结构和功能产生重要影响。如何采用合理的适应措施降低这些变化可能带来的损失,是目前全球变化研究亟待解决的问题之一。因此,研究土地利用和气候变化对森林的单独及综合影响具有重要的科学意义。本文综合利用基于主体的土地利用模型（ABM/LUCC）、生态系统过程模型（PnET-II）以及森林景观动态模型（LANDIS-II）构建了综合模拟研究框架,选择森林类型多样且具有长期观测数据积累的江西省泰和县为研究区,模拟并对比了土地利用和气候变化组合情景下未来森林地上总生物量的变化差异。结果表明：① 土地利用变化对泰和县森林地上总生物量的影响比气候变化所带来的影响更加显著。研究区森林地上总生物量在有土地利用变化干扰的情景下与RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5单独的气候情景下相比分别减少33.13%、32.92%和32.42%;② 尽管未来气候变化可能有利于森林地上总生物量的积累,但土地利用变化将使森林地上总生物量显著减少,并将抵消气候变化带来的正效应;③ 本文提出的综合模拟研究框架可以很好地模拟土地利用和气候变化对森林生态系统的影响,可为提升和优化人工林结构和功能、开展可持续森林管理提供科学建议。 相似文献
6.
The Ecological-living-productive land(ELPL) classification system was proposed in an effort to steer China's land pattern to an ecological-centered path, with the development model shifting from a single function into more integrated multifunction land use. The focus is coordinating the man-land contradictions and developing an intensive, efficient and sustainable land use policy in an increasingly tense relationship between humans and nature. Driven by socioeconomic change and rapid population growth, many cities are undergoing urban sprawl, which involves the consumption of cropland and ecological land and threatens the ecological balance. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the critical effects of ELPL changes on eco-environmental quality according to land use classification based on leading function of ecology, living and production from 1990 to 2015 with a case study of Xining City. Also, four future land use scenarios were simulated for2030 using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model that couples human and natural effects. Our results show a decrease in productive land(PL) and an increase in ecological land(EL) and living land(LL) in Xining City. Forestry ecological land(FEL) covered the top largest proportion; agriculture productive land(APL) showed the greatest reduction and urban and rural living land(U-RLL) presented a dramatic increase. The eco-environmental quality improved in 1990-2010, mainly affected by the conversion of APL to FEL and GEL. However, the encroachment of U-RLL into APL, other ecological land(OEL) and FEL was the main contributor to the decline in eco-environmental quality in 2010-2015 as well as the primary reason for the increase area of lower-quality. The Harmonious Development(HD)-Scenario, characterized by a rational allocation of LL and PL and a better eco-environment, would have implications for planning and monitoring future management of ELPL, and may represent a valuable reference for local policy-makers. 相似文献
7.
北京城市蔓延的测度与分析 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
针对现阶段我国城市用地快速扩张和无序蔓延的现实问题, 以北京市在1996~2004 年期间的城市扩展作为研究案例, 提出可以从城市扩展形态、扩展效率和外部影响等三个方面来判识城市蔓延现象, 并提出基于地理空间指标体系的城市蔓延测度方法, 主要由涉及人口、经济、土地利用、农业、环境和城市生活等方面的13 项指标所组成。实证分析结果表明, 该方法可以有效地测度和量化研究区城市蔓延的特征: ① 建设用地斑块具有明显的破碎化和不规则化趋势, 缺乏良好的规划控制, 不连续开发、条带式开发和跳跃式开发特征明显, 扩展形态不尽合理; ② 新增建设用地的建设密度和容积率较低, 并且新增用地的人口密度和经济产出水平均低于原有用地绩效, 扩展效率不高; ③ 城市蔓延占用大量的耕地和开敞空间、加重了交通负担, 对农业、环境和城市生活存在显著的负面影响。 相似文献
8.
近年来全球气候变化已经影响到人类生活的所有地区,气候系统变化的规模和现状是数千年来前所未有的。与此同时,中国城镇化进程显著加快,尤其以城市建设用地扩张主导的土地城镇化最为突出,导致城市热环境脆弱性加剧。已有研究探索了特定类型土地利用变化对于城市热环境的影响,但忽视了全球气候变化背景下自然气候和人类活动共同作用城市热环境变化的双重过程。因此,本研究提出一种基于土地利用类型的城市热环境变化贡献度算法,旨在厘清自然气候（表征为土地利用平均温度变化）和人类活动（表征为土地利用类型转变）对于区域热环境变化的单独贡献。本研究使用中分辨率成像光谱仪（Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer,MODIS）地表温度及发射率数据,定量计算2005—2020年四季和昼夜京津冀城市群各城市土地利用类型平均温度和面积变化对于城市热环境变化的分别贡献。该算法计算各城市四季和昼夜地表温度变化与MODIS LST产品误差在1 K以内。2005—2020年各城市地表平均温度大多数呈增长态势,其中冬季白天增温幅度最高。耕地、城市建设用地和农村居民点对城市热环境变化的贡献度较其他土地利用类型突出。京津冀城市群中各城市人类活动对城市热环境变化的单位贡献强度远高于自然气候（4.03~648.07倍）,而人类活动的贡献总量（-0.25~0.92 K）低于自然气候（-2.40~6.50 K）。研究结果对于京津冀城市群空间协同发展和适应及减缓气候变化等具有重要的科学意义和实践价值。 相似文献
9.
In Switzerland, the decreasing significance of agriculture has led to prominent processes of land abandonment in mountainous areas where the maintenance of open land relies on human intervention. At the same time, urbanisation in Switzerland is increasing at a rapid rate at the expense of other land use types, particularly open land agriculture. In spite of these observed trends, the extent and location of anticipated land-use changes for the coming 20 years remain unknown, as does the impact on landscape services. This research defines 5 scenarios of future land-use for Switzerland along axes of Globalisation to Regionalisation and Market-driven developments to high policy intervention. Using the Dyna-CLUE land use modelling framework we incorporate socio-economic and bio-geographical variables to model scenarios of land change for 2035. By identifying locations for key land use transitions which occur across several scenarios, we find that unless large scale policy interventions are made, large areas of the Swiss Plateau and Alpine valley bottoms face strong urbanisation and much of the mountainous pasture agriculture continues to face risk of abandonment. 相似文献
10.
In-migration to popular ‘sea change’ and ‘tree change’ regions has produced conflicts between rural land users. In the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales, new residential developments have been built on much of what was previously prime agricultural land, while farmers (in particular, those negatively affected by the deregulation of the dairy industry) have sought to secure retirement incomes by subdividing land for sale. Although developers, local councils and individual farmers sometimes see eye to eye on the mutual benefits of in-migration and population growth, land use has none the less become the subject of a hotly contested local political battle. Conflicts occur at the interface of growing urban developments and surrounding farmland, with new residents finding the sights, sounds and smells of rural production intrusive. More generally, there is considerable concern that the best farmland in the region may be lost to urbanisation and rural residential subdivision. This paper discusses the results of a survey that collected opinions from local residents about the pressures on the region's land uses by in-migration, the future role of farmland as both an economic and cultural landscape, and views on proposed measures to protect prime farmland in the region. Results highlighted a strong and consistent ‘pro-farmland’ and ‘pro-protection’ attitude throughout the region, and across social groups. Yet, variations emerged when respondents were asked about why they attribute value to agricultural landscapes. For some, ‘economic’ values dominated, while for others, value was attributed in ways that reflected an emerging ethos of ‘localism’ and village lifestyle. Although values differed, a clear message from this study is that the population of Australia's pre-eminent ‘sea change’ region strongly support measures to curb urban development and the more destructive consequences of a dynamic property market. 相似文献
11.
华北平原农业适应气候变化技术集成创新体系 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
适应气候变化技术的集成创新是应对气候变化的必要途径.以我国重要的商品粮生产基地--华北平原为例,分析了气候变化对华北平原农业的影响,提出华北平原农业适应气候变化的技术集成创新体系,包括：单一目标的农业适应技术集成体系,多目标综合的农业适应技术集成体系,多部门综合的农业适应技术集成体系和因地制宜的分区农业适应技术集成体系等;讨论了适应的不确定性、适应需求的差异性以及适应技术集成创新能力.最后指出,我国应对气候变化亟需开展不同领域适应气候变化技术的集成创新研究,构建不同部门适应气候变化技术的集成创新体系,使各种单项和分散的技术成果得到集成,从而建立完善的适应气候变化技术的集成创新机制. 相似文献
12.
东北三省城市土地利用效益评价及耦合协调关系研究 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
在阐述城市土地利用效益系统耦合协调性内涵及其交互作用机理的基础上,构建综合评价指标体系,运用均方差决策法、耦合协调度模型,对东北三省2003~2015年城市土地利用综合效益及其主成分间耦合协调关系进行测度,并分析其时空演化过程。研究认为：① 城市土地利用综合效益表现出随时间“先升后降”的特征,区内三省间差异明显,中心和门户城市长期处于较高水平。② 城市土地利用经济效益亦存在“先升后降”的时序变化特征,空间上表现为“南高北低”,低值区范围缩减明显;社会效益差异不显著,在南北方向上表现出“凸”字型分布特征;区域生态环境效益整体较高,高值区由集中趋向分散。③ 城市土地利用经济、社会、生态环境效益间耦合协调关系在各时间节点均表现为失调,且以中度失调为主,但中心城市和门户城市的三效益耦合协调关系相对较好,向协调方向发展,哈长与辽中南城市群地区协调性优于其他区域,吉林省与辽宁省东部的部分城市协调关系趋向恶化。④ 城市土地利用效益间关系失调主要受复合因素的作用,经济效益滞后是制约土地利用效益耦合协调关系提升的主因,生态环境效益滞后不是限制土地利用效益耦合协调性提升的主要因素。 相似文献
13.
探讨三江源地区产水和土壤保持对整个青藏高原地区、黄河流域、长江流域及澜沧江流域的生态稳定和人类社会的可持续发展具有重要意义。以4期(2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年)土地利用现状数据、降水及气温日值数据集、1∶1000000中国土壤数据库为研究的数据源,结合居民点、道路、河流等矢量数据及人口、经济栅格数据集和CCSM4通用气候模式预测成果数据,以三江源地区为案例区,基于FLUS模型和降尺度校正方法设计4种土地利用发展情景和2种气候变化情景,应用InVEST模型对研究区域2030年不同情景下的产水和土壤侵蚀进行定量模拟。结果表明:(1)不同土地利用发展情景下,草地仍然是三江源地区的优势土地利用类型,面积占比始终大于67%。(2)RCP4.5气候情景下,年产水量和土壤侵蚀量增加幅度分别超过7%和3.9%;RCP8.5气候情景下,年产水量和土壤侵蚀量的减少幅度分别超过3.3%和1.3%。(3)气候变化在产水量和土壤侵蚀量变化中起主导作用。气候变化对产水量变化的贡献率高达89.97%–98.00%,对土壤侵蚀模数变化的贡献率在60.49%–95.64%之间;而土地利用类型变化对区域产水量变化的贡献率仅在2.00%–10.03%之间,对土壤侵蚀模数变化的贡献率在4.36%–39.91%之间。因此,三江源地区土地开发策略应综合考虑区域发展、退耕还林还草的投入及产生的生态效益等多方面问题。 相似文献
14.
城乡土地市场一体化对土地利用/覆被变化的影响研究综述 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
为了破除城、乡土地市场分割现状,最终实现“山水林田湖”共同发展的目标,需要推进城乡土地市场一体化发展。分别从城市土地市场、农村集体性建设用地非正式市场和农村农用地流转市场3个方面对土地利用/覆被变化的影响机理研究进行梳理。结果认为：第一,城乡土地市场割裂的状况仍然存在,并且对土地利用/覆被变化产生较大影响;第二,城市国有建设用地市场的发育程度不同,直接影响土地供求关系和土地利用结构,甚至对土地利用配置效率产生影响;第三,农村集体性建设用地市场已现雏形,但由于产权的模糊性而缺乏法律上的监管和保障,加快了土地利用类型的过度非农化转化。另外,农用地流转市场的出现也改变了土地利用的功能和类型;最后,城乡土地市场分割现象会对土地利用系统的可持续性和生态环境产生一定影响。在以上研究结果基础上认为未来研究需要进一步加强对城乡土地市场一体化的分析,且揭示城乡土地市场一体化对区域土地利用/覆被变化影响机理（格局、过程、效应）。 相似文献
15.
ABSTRACT Peri-urban areas are the interface between urban and rural regions, with these regions traditionally acting as foodbowls for adjacent urban areas. This peri-urban agriculture provides a diverse suite of benefits to urban areas. Increasingly, however, peri-urban areas are being converted to residential uses, driven in part by higher land values secured for land converted for residential development. In Sydney, planning and development has tended to treat peri-urban areas as ‘suburbs in waiting’. Using a Foucauldian governmentality approach, this paper investigates the prevailing rationalities in metropolitan-level strategic planning documents—in particular A Plan for Growing Sydney and the Draft South West District Plan—and how these rationalities relate to peri-urban agriculture. Our analysis shows that the three overarching rationalities—the global city, the compact city and the sustainability agenda—frame the urbanisation of peri-urban agricultural lands as necessary and inevitable, and only integrate agriculture as part of the future of the city of Sydney when it can be rationalised within the ‘global city’ narrative. As a result, peri-urban areas are not considered to have unique planning needs, but are imagined as latent spaces that will enable Sydney to meet its housing and job targets through their future development. 相似文献
16.
通过对东昌府区PRED系统特征与系统惯性增长的分析揭示制约PRED系统协调发展与可持续农业发展的主要矛盾,在此基础上确立农业可持续发展的总方向,并有针对性地提出可持续发展的对策,主要包括：优化农业结构,促进农业可持续发展;促进农业市场化、企业化和专业化基地发展,推进农业产业化进程;加大盐碱地、中低产田挖潜改造,提高土地生产力;建立农业可持续发展的调控机制。 相似文献
17.
赣南生态屏障区林地时空变化分情景模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于2000年和2010年土地利用遥感数据,从自然、区位、交通、人口和经济4个角度选取驱动因子,利用Logistic-CA-Markov土地利用综合模型预测赣南森林有林地、灌木林、疏林地和其它林地4种林地类型在当前模式、规划模式和保护模式3种情景下的空间演变格局。结果表明：① 到2020年,在当前模式和规划模式,林地总面积将减少,在保护模式则出现增加,3种情景都体现出有林地和其它林地增加、疏林地和灌木林缩减的趋势,只是增减幅度不同,但不论何种情形林地的组成结构都将发生较大程度的变化;② 3种情景都是以疏林地→有林地、有林地→其它林地和灌木林→有林地这3种类型的转化为主,向有林地的转化分布都比较分散,而向其它林地的转化却集中在安远、信丰、于都、赣县四县交界处;③ 相较于当前模式,在规划模式下集中在安远县及其周边的有林地向其它林地的转化出现大量缩减,在保护模式下这种缩减更加明显。 相似文献
18.
Land cover change affects surface radiation budget and energy balance by chang- ing surface albedo and further impacts the regional and global climate. In this article, high spatial and temporal resolution satellite products were used to analyze the driving mechanism for surface albedo change caused by land cover change during 1990-2010. In addition, the annual-scale radiative forcing caused by surface albedo changes in China＇s 50 ecological regions were calculated to reveal the biophysical mechanisms of land cover change affecting climate change at regional scale. Our results showed that the national land cover changes were mainly caused by land reclamation, grassland desertification and urbanization in past 20 years, which were almost induced by anthropogenic activities. Grassland and forest area decreased by 0.60% and 0.11%, respectively. The area of urban and farmland increased by 0.60% and 0.19%, respectively. The mean radiative forcing caused by land cover changes during 1990-2010 was 0.062 W/m2 in China, indicating a warming climate effect. However, spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing was huge among different ecological regions. Farmland conversing to urban construction land, the main type of land cover change for the urban and suburban agricultural ecological region in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, caused an albedo reduction by 0.00456 and a maximum positive radiative forcing of 0.863 WIm2, which was presented as warming climate effects. Grassland and forest conversing to farmland, the main type of land cover change for the temperate humid agricultural and wetland ecological region in Sanjiang Plain, caused an albedo increase by 0.00152 and a maximum negative radiative forcing of 0.184 W/m2, implying cooling climate effects. 相似文献
19.
1990-2010年中国土地覆被变化引起反照率改变的辐射强迫 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
土地覆被变化通过改变地表反照率而影响地表辐射收支与能量平衡,从而对区域和全球气候产生影响。本文利用高时空分辨率遥感数据分析1990-2010 年中国土地覆被变化改变地表反照率的时空驱动机制,并计算全国50 个生态区地表反照率变化导致的年际尺度辐射强迫,揭示土地覆被变化在生态区尺度上影响气候变化的生物地球物理机制。结果表明:1990-2010 年全国土地覆被变化以耕地开垦、草地沙化、城市化等人类土地利用活动导致的土地覆被变化最为明显,全国草地与林地面积分别减少了0.60%和0.11%;建设用地和耕地面积分别增加了0.60%和0.19%。全国土地覆被变化通过改变地表反照率引起的平均辐射强迫为0.062 W/m2,表现为增温的气候效应,但在生态区尺度辐射强迫空间差异很大。京津唐城镇与农城郊农业生态区主要土地覆被变化为耕地转为建设用地,引起地表反照率降低了0.00456,产生0.863 W/m2的辐射强迫,表现为增温的气候效应;而三江平原温带湿润农业与湿地生态区主要的土地覆被变化为林草地转为耕地,引起地表反照率升高了0.00152,产生-0.184 W/m2的辐射强迫,表现为降温的气候效应。 相似文献
20.
Predicting plausible impacts of sets of climate and land use change scenarios on water resources 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Susanna T.Y. Tong Yu SunThushara Ranatunga Jie HeY. Jeffrey Yang 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):477-489
Our world is changing at an unprecedented rate in terms of climate and land use, but these changes can affect our water resources. Hence, we need a methodology that can predict both their individual and agglomerative ramifications. Using the Little Miami River (LMR) watershed as a case study, this paper describes a spatial analytical approach integrating mathematical modeling and geographical information sciences to quantitatively examine the relative importance of the separate and combined hydrologic and water quality impacts of climate and land use changes.The Hydrologic Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) model was chosen in this study to simulate stream flow and nutrient transport process. Five hypothetical climate change scenarios were used to cover the possible ranges of variability in the year 2050. An enhanced population-coupled Markov-Cellular Automata (CA-Markov) land use model was developed to predict the 2050 land use pattern. When these scenarios were incorporated into the HSPF model, the future conditions in the LMR basin were postulated. The findings demonstrated that: 1) the LMR watershed would experience an increase in flow and nutrients under the 2050 land use projection, 2) stream flow and water quality impacts would be amplified when both climate and land use changes were simultaneously considered, 3) land use change (and in the case of the LMR watershed, urbanization) could help to alleviate water shortage during the dry years, 4) total phosphorus and nitrogen would increase under all future climate and land use scenarios; the highest increase was found under the combined wettest and future land use scenarios, and 5) the described approach is effective in simulating the hydrologic and water quality effects of climate and land use changes in a basin scale. These results are relevant to planners; they can be useful in formulating realistic watershed management policies and mitigation measures. 相似文献