首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 638 毫秒
1.
Accounting harvested wood products and their trade as an integral part of thecarbon cycle of a managed forest is achallenging task. Nevertheless, an appropriate way is especially needed nowthat harvested wood products may be includedin Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol. The adoption of a method for accountingfor these flows in the IPCC guidelines mayhave implications for the trade of wood products and thus on global forestmanagement.Four methods of accounting for wood products in an international perspective areanalyzed in the present study. The aimis to obtain insight in the technical and policy implications of the proposedmethods. These methods include the presentdefault IPCC method and three alternatives: flow consumption, flow production,and stock change. All fourmethodologies are applied to the 1990 data of Gabon, Sweden, and TheNetherlands.The impact of accounting for wood products using alternative methods has –in some cases – a large impact on the carbonbalance of the Land Use Change and Forestry (LUCF) sector. In the case of TheNetherlands, it was found that theLUCF carbon balance could be `converted' from a sink into a source dependingon the method chosen. However,the LUCF sector is very small compared to the total national carbon balancein The Netherlands. In Sweden, a countrywhere the forest sector plays an important role, the alternative wood productmethods influence the total nationalcarbon balance by 34%. In Gabon, a country with conversion forestry,the impact of alternative wood productmethods hardly influences the LUCF carbon balance because the emissions fromdeforestation are very large.The accounting method may have a large impact on the way countries regardtheir trade in wood products. It may bepossible for countries to buy a sink through the wood products trade, byimporting products faster than they decomposedomestically. In the case of Gabon with its conversion forestry (the changefrom forest into other types of land use, like agriculture,it was foundthat under the flow consumption method,this country can partly export the carbon sources resulting fromnonsustainable forest management. Nor is this lattermethod consistent with the energy chapter of the IPCC guidelines. The stockchange method seems to be a suitablemethod, combining precise accounting and simplicity. This method is also anincentive for the use of wood in long-lifeproducts and bioenergy, and for sustainable forest management.  相似文献   

2.
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: EXAMPLES FROM RUSSIAN BOREAL FORESTS   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
The Russian Federation contains approximately 20% of the world's timber resources and more than half of all boreal forests. These forests play a prominent role in environmental protection and economic development at global, national, and local levels, as well as, provide commodities for indigenous people and habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. The response and feedbacks of Russian boreal forests to projected global climate change are expected to be profound. Large shifts in the distribution (up to 19% area reduction) and productivity of boreal forests are implied by scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Uncertainty regarding the potential distribution and productivity of future boreal forests complicates the development of adaptation strategies for forest establishment, management, harvesting and wood processing. Although a low potential exists for rapid natural adaptation of long-lived, complex boreal forests, recent analyses suggest Russian forest management and utilization strategies should be field tested to assess their potential to assist boreal forests in adaptation to a changing global environment. Current understanding of the vulnerability of Russian forest resources to projected climate change is discussed and examples of possible adaptation measures for Russian forests are presented, including: (1) artificial forestation techniques that can be applied with the advent of failed natural regeneration and to facilitate forest migration northward; (2) silvicultural measures that can influence the species mix to maintain productivity under future climates; (3) identifying forests at risk and developing special management adaptation measures for them; (4) alternative processing and uses of wood and non-wood products from future forests; and (5) potential future infrastructure and transport systems that can be employed as boreal forests shift northward into melting permafrost zones. Current infrastructure and technology can be employed to help Russian boreal forests adapt to projected global environmental change, however many current forest management practices may have to be modified. Application of this technical knowledge can help policymakers identify priorities for climate change adaptation.  相似文献   

3.
Leakage (spillover) refers to the unintended negative (positive) consequences of forest carbon (C) management in one area on C storage elsewhere. For example, the local C storage benefit of less intensive harvesting in one area may be offset, partly or completely, by intensified harvesting elsewhere in order to meet global timber demand. We present the results of a theoretical study aimed at identifying the key factors determining leakage and spillover, as a prerequisite for more realistic numerical studies. We use a simple model of C storage in managed forest ecosystems and their wood products to derive approximate analytical expressions for the leakage induced by decreasing the harvesting frequency of existing forest, and the spillover induced by establishing new plantations, assuming a fixed total wood production from local and remote (non-local) forests combined. We find that leakage and spillover depend crucially on the growth rates, wood product lifetimes and woody litter decomposition rates of local and remote forests. In particular, our results reveal critical thresholds for leakage and spillover, beyond which effects of forest management on remote C storage exceed local effects. Order of magnitude estimates of leakage indicate its potential importance at global scales.  相似文献   

4.
Deforestation has contributed significantly to net greenhouse gas emissions, but slowing deforestation, regrowing forests and other ecosystem processes have made forests a net sink. Deforestation will still influence future carbon fluxes, but the role of forest growth through aging, management, and other silvicultural inputs on future carbon fluxes are critically important but not always recognized by bookkeeping and integrated assessment models. When projecting the future, it is vital to capture how management processes affect carbon storage in ecosystems and wood products. This study uses multiple global forest sector models to project forest carbon impacts across 81 shared socioeconomic (SSP) and climate mitigation pathway scenarios. We illustrate the importance of modeling management decisions in existing forests in response to changing demands for land resources, wood products and carbon. Although the models vary in key attributes, there is general agreement across a majority of scenarios that the global forest sector could remain a carbon sink in the future, sequestering 1.2–5.8 GtCO2e/yr over the next century. Carbon fluxes in the baseline scenarios that exclude climate mitigation policy ranged from −0.8 to 4.9 GtCO2e/yr, highlighting the strong influence of SSPs on forest sector model estimates. Improved forest management can jointly increase carbon stocks and harvests without expanding forest area, suggesting that carbon fluxes from managed forests systems deserve more careful consideration by the climate policy community.  相似文献   

5.
Affluence drives the global displacement of land use   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Increasing affluence is often postulated as a main driver for the human footprint on biologically productive areas, identified among the main causes of biodiversity loss, but causal relationships are obscured by international trade. Here, we trace the use of land and ocean area through international supply chains to final consumption, modeling agricultural, food, and forestry products on a high level of resolution while also including the land requirements of manufactured goods and services. In 2004, high-income countries required more biologically productive land per capita than low-income countries, but this connection could only be identified when land used to produce internationally traded products was taken into account, because higher-income countries tend to displace a larger fraction of land use. The equivalent land and ocean area footprint of nations increased by a third for each doubling of income, with all variables analyzed on a per capita basis. This increase came largely from imports, which increased proportionally to income. Export depended mostly on the capacity of countries to produce useful biomass, the biocapacity. Our analysis clearly shows that countries with a high biocapacity per capita tend to spare more land for nature. Biocapacity per capita can be increased through more intensive production or by reducing population density. The net displacement of land use from high-income to low-income countries amounted to 6% of the global land demand, even though high-income countries had more land available per capita than low-income countries. In particular, Europe and Japan placed high pressure on ecosystems in lower-income countries.  相似文献   

6.
The rise of public and private zero-deforestation commitments is opening a new collaborative space in global forest governance. Governments seeking to reduce national greenhouse gas emissions by protecting and restoring forests are partnering with companies motivated to eliminate deforestation from supply chains. The proliferation of zero-deforestation initiatives is creating opportunities for policy synergies and scaling up impacts, but has led to a more complex regulatory landscape. Drawing on policy analysis and expert interviews, we explore public-private policy interactions in Colombia as a case study for tropical forested nations with interest in aligning climate, forest, and development goals. We consider how zero-deforestation priorities are set on the national agenda and scaled up through public-private partnerships. We identify zero-deforestation initiatives in three overlapping governance domains—domestic public policy, REDD+, sustainable supply chain initiatives—and highlight ten multi-stakeholder pledges that have catalyzed supporting initiatives at multiple scales. Emerging from decades of armed conflict, Colombia is pursuing a peace building model based on low-emissions rural development. The peace deal provided a focusing event for zero-deforestation that converged with political momentum and institutional capacity to open a policy window. A government pledge to eliminate deforestation in the Colombian Amazon by 2020 set the national agenda and stimulated international REDD+ cooperation. Lessons from Colombia show that governments provide important directionality among the proliferation of zero-deforestation initiatives. Public pledges and the orchestration of actors through public-private partnerships allow governments to scale up efforts by aligning transnational activities with national priorities. The case of Colombia serves as a potential zero-deforestation model for other nations, but challenges around equitable land tenure, illegality, and enforcement must be overcome for multi-stakeholder initiatives to produce long-term change.  相似文献   

7.
Recent work on global patterns of deforestation has shown that countries with high per capita GDP or low remaining forest cover are more likely to be experiencing afforestation than deforestation. Here, I show that the relationship is more complex than previously described, because the effect of one variable is dependent upon the value of the other. As a result, high-income nations exhibit the opposite response to disappearing forest cover than low-income nations. In an analysis of 103 countries, I found that high-income countries with low forest cover have the highest rates of afforestation, typically through the establishment of new plantations. In contrast, low-income countries with little forest are more likely to consume that remaining portion at a faster proportional rate than do low-income countries with more forest. Nations with large amounts of forest have approximately equal deforestation rates, regardless of national wealth. These results highlight for the first time that there is a strong interaction between forest cover and economic development that determines rates of forest change among nations.  相似文献   

8.
Effective policies for dealing with anticipated climatic changes must reflect the two-way interactions between climate, forests and society. Considerable analysis has focused on one aspect of forests - timber production - at a local and regional scale, but no fully integrated global studies have been conducted. The appropriate ecological and economic models appear to be available to do so. Nontimber aspects of forests dominate the social values provided by many forests, especially remote or unmanaged lands where the impacts of climatic change are apt to be most significant. Policy questions related to these issues and lands are much less well understood. Policy options related to afforestation are well studied, but other ways the forest sector can help ameliorate climatic change merit more extensive analysis. Promising possibilities include carbon taxes to influence the management of extant forests, and materials policies to lengthen the life of wood products or to encourage the substitution of CO2-fixing wood products for ones manufactured from less benign materials.  相似文献   

9.
Tele-connecting local consumption to global land use   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Globalization increases the interconnectedness of people and places around the world. In a connected world, goods and services consumed in one country are often produced in other countries and exchanged via international trade. Thus, local consumption is increasingly met by global supply chains oftentimes involving large geographical distances and leading to global environmental change. In this study, we connect local consumption to global land use through tracking global commodity and value chains via international trade flows. Using a global multiregional input–output model with sectoral detail allows for the accounting of land use attributed to “unusual” sectors – from a land use perspective – including services, machinery and equipment, and construction. Our results show how developed countries consume a large amount of goods and services from both domestic and international markets, and thus impose pressure not only on their domestic land resources, but also displace land in other countries, thus displacing other uses. For example, 33% of total U.S. land use for consumption purposes is displaced from other countries. This ratio becomes much larger for the EU (more than 50%) and Japan (92%). Our analysis shows that 47% of Brazilian and 88% of Argentinean cropland is used for consumption purposes outside of their territories, mainly in EU countries and China. In addition, consumers in rich countries tend to displace land by consuming non-agricultural products, such as services, clothing and household appliances, which account for more than 50% of their total land displacement. By contrast, for developing economies, such as African countries, the share of land use for non-agricultural products is much lower, with an average of 7%. The emerging economies and population giants, China and India, are likely to further increase their appetite for land from other countries, such as Africa, Russia and Latin America, to satisfy their own land needs driven by their fast economic growth and the needs and lifestyles of their growing populations.  相似文献   

10.
Sea level rise (SLR) is among the climate-change-related problems of greatest concern, threatening the lives and property of coastal residents and generating far-reaching economic and ecological impacts. We project that SLR will lead to an increase in the rate of new housing construction to replace destroyed structures, impact global wood products supply and demand conditions, and cause changes in global forest sector carbon mitigation potential. Findings indicate that 71 million new units will be built by 2050 to accommodate the SLR-affected global population. More than two-thirds of these new units are projected to be in Asia. The estimated extra wood products needed to build these new residential units is 1,659 million m3, assuming that all these structures would be built mainly with wood, representing a 4 % increase in total wood consumption, compared to projected reference level global wood products consumption. Increased timber removals to meet this higher construction wood demand (alternative scenario) is shown to deplete global forest carbon by 2 % by 2050 compared to the reference scenario. However, all such projected declines in forest biomass carbon could be more than offset by increased carbon sequestration in harvested wood products, avoided emissions due to substitution of wood for non-wood materials in construction, and biomass regrowth on forestland by 2050, with an estimated net emissions reduction benefit of 0.47 tCO2e/tCO2e of extra wood used in SLR-related new houses over 30 years. The global net emissions reduction benefit increased to 2.13 tCO2e/tCO2e of extra wood when price-induced changes in forest land area were included.  相似文献   

11.
Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Forest Sector   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.  相似文献   

12.
Carbon sequestration in agroforestry systems   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):367-377
Abstract

Management of trees in agroecosystems such as agroforestry, ethnoforests, and trees outside forests can mitigate green house gas (GHG) emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. Agroforestry systems are a better climate change mitigation option than oceanic, and other terrestrial options because of the secondary environmental benefits such as helping to attain food security and secure land tenure in developing countries, increasing farm income, restoring and maintaining above-ground and below-ground biodiversity, corridors between protected forests, as CH4 sinks, maintaining watershed hydrology, and soil conservation. Agroforestry also mitigates the demand for wood and reduces pressure on natural forests. Promoting woodcarving industry facilitates long-term locking-up of carbon in carved wood and new sequestration through intensified tree growing. By making use of local knowledge, equity, livelihood security, trade and industry, can be supported. There is need to support development of suitable policies, assisted by robust country-wide scientific studies aimed at better understanding the potential of agroforestry and ethnoforestry for climate change mitigation and human well-being.  相似文献   

13.
The paper quantifies the role of Indian forests as source or sink of carbon. The model used in the study takes into account the growing stock, additional tree organs, dead biomass, litter layer and soil organic matter, harvesting and harvesting losses, effects of pests, fire etc., allocation of timber to wood products, life span of products including recycling and allocation to landfills. The net carbon balance calculated as the net source or sink of the forest sector was assessed for the year 1993–94. The study isimportant in view of the obligation placed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on the signatory nations to provide a periodic update of carbon budget in the atmosphere. For the available data and the underlying assumptions, the results of the carbon budget model indicated that the Indian forest sector acted as a source of 12.8 TgC (including accumulation of carbon in the dead biomass) for the year 1994. The results obtained reinforced the notion that an integrated approach is required in order to evaluate the forest sector's influence on the global atmospheric carbon levels. The model used in this study has the advantage that all the factors determining the carbon budget can be integrated and altered to determine their influence. The study also throws light on the issues that stand in the way of preparing through carbon budget for developing countries like India.  相似文献   

14.
Fires and their associated carbon and air pollutant emissions have a broad range of environmental and societal impacts, including negative effects on human health, damage to terrestrial ecosystems, and indirect effects that promote climate change. Previous studies investigated future carbon emissions from the perspective of response to climate change and population growth, but the compound effects of other factors like economic development and land use change are not yet well known. We explored fire carbon emissions throughout the 21st century by changing five factors (meteorology, biomass, land use, population density, and gross domestic product [GDP] per capita). Compared to the historical period (2006–2015), global future fire carbon emissions decreased, mainly caused by an increase in GDP per capita, which leads to improvement in fire management and capitalized agriculture. We found that the meteorological factor has a strong individual effect under higher warming cases. Fires in boreal forests were particularly expected to increase because of an increase in fuel dryness. Our research should help climate change researchers consider fire-carbon interactions. Incorporating future spatial changes under diverse scenarios will be helpful to develop national mitigation and adaptation plans.  相似文献   

15.
Forests have an important role to play in climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration and wood supply. However, the lower albedo of mature forests compared to bare land implies that focusing only on GHG accounting may lead to biased estimates of forestry's total climatic impacts. An economic model with a high degree of detail of the Norwegian forestry and forest industries is used to simulate GHG fluxes and albedo impacts for the next decades. Albedo is incorporated in a carbon tax/subsidy scheme in the Norwegian forest sector using a partial, spatial equilibrium model. While a price of EU€100/tCO2e that targets GHG fluxes only results in reduced harvests, the same price including albedo leads to harvest levels that are five times higher in the first five years, with 39% of the national productive forest land base being cleared. The results suggest that policies that only consider GHG fluxes and ignore changes in albedo will not lead to an optimal use of the forest sector for climate change mitigation.

Policy relevance

Bare land reflects a larger share of incoming solar energy than dense forest and thus has higher albedo. Earlier research has suggested that changes in albedo caused by management of boreal forest may be as important as carbon fluxes for the forest's overall global warming impacts. The presented analysis is the first attempt to link albedo to national-scale forest climate policies. A policy with subsidies to forest owners that generate carbon sequestration and taxes levied on carbon emissions leads to a reduced forest harvest. However, including albedo in the policy alongside carbon fluxes yields very different results, causing initial harvest levels to increase substantially. The inclusion of albedo impacts will make harvests more beneficial for climate change mitigation as compared to a carbon-only policy. Hence, it is likely that carbon policies that ignore albedo will not lead to optimal forest management for climate change mitigation.  相似文献   

16.
Forest transitions: towards a global understanding of land use change   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
Places experience forest transitions when declines in forest cover cease and recoveries in forest cover begin. Forest transitions have occurred in two, sometimes overlapping circumstances. In some places economic development has created enough non-farm jobs to pull farmers off of the land, thereby inducing the spontaneous regeneration of forests in old fields. In other places a scarcity of forest products has prompted governments and landowners to plant trees in some fields. The transitions do little to conserve biodiversity, but they do sequester carbon and conserve soil, so governments should place a high priority on promoting them.  相似文献   

17.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(1):41-54
One strategy for mitigating the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is to expand the size of the terrestrial carbon sink, particularly forests, essentially using trees as biological scrubbers. Within relevant ranges of carbon abatement targets, augmenting carbon sequestration by protecting and expanding biomass sinks can potentially make large contributions at costs that are comparable or lower than for emission source controls. The Kyoto protocol to the framework convention on climate change includes many provisions for forest and land use carbon sequestration projects and activities in its signatories’ overall greenhouse gas mitigation plans. In particular, the protocol provides a joint implementation provision and a clean development mechanism that would allow nations to claim credit for carbon sequestration projects undertaken in cooperation with other countries. However, there are many obstacles for implementing an effective program of land use change and forestry carbon credits, especially measurement challenges. This paper explains the difficulty that even impartial analysts have in assessing the carbon offset benefits of projects. When these measurement challenges are combined with self-interest, asymmetries of information, and large numbers, it prevents to a project-based forest and land use carbon credit program may be insurmountable.  相似文献   

18.
Armed conflicts trigger region-specific mechanisms that affect land use change. Deforestation is presented as one of the most common negative environmental impacts resulting from armed conflicts, with relevant consequences in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and loss of ecosystem services. However, the impact of armed conflict on forests is complex and may simultaneously lead to positive and negative environmental outcomes, i.e. forest regrowth and deforestation, in different regions even within a country. We investigate the impact that armed conflict exerted over forest dynamics at different spatial scales in Colombia and for the global tropics during the period 1992–2015. Through the analysis of its internally displaced population (departures) our results suggest that, albeit finding forest regrowth in some municipalities, the Colombian conflict predominantly exerted a negative impact on its forests. A further examination of georeferenced fighting locations in Colombia and across the globe shows that conflict areas were 8 and 4 times more likely to undergo deforestation, respectively, in the following years in relation to average deforestation rates. This study represents a municipality level, long-term spatial analysis of the diverging effects the Colombian conflict exerted over its forest dynamics over two distinct periods of increasing and decreasing conflict intensity. Moreover, it presents the first quantified estimate of conflict's negative impact on forest ecosystems across the globe. The relationship between armed conflict and land use change is of global relevance given the recent increase of armed conflicts across the world and the importance of a possible exacerbation of armed conflicts and migration as climate change impacts increase.  相似文献   

19.
In order to alleviate the threat of global climate change, coordinated international action is needed. This cooperation should include multilateral agreements and new economic initiatives to help implement measures that will slow the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere due to tropical deforestation and fossil-fuel use. An international market in environmental services can help to safeguard the Earth's climate and foster economic development through a North-South transfer of financial resources.We suggest international carbon-emission offsets (ICEOs) as a means by which international markets, under a policy umbrella such as a multilateral climate-protection treaty, could trade carbon-saving services. Such a market would provide a currency for rewarding actions that reduce global carbon emissions, allowing carbon emitters to seek the least expensive ways to reduce emissions. This currency would transfer cash and/or debt relief from industrialized nations to developing nations, allowing the developing nations to profit from the use of clean energy technologies and the protection, rather than depletion, of tropical forests.  相似文献   

20.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):41-54
Abstract

One strategy for mitigating the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is to expand the size of the terrestrial carbon sink, particularly forests, essentially using trees as biological scrubbers. Within relevant ranges of carbon abatement targets, augmenting carbon sequestration by protecting and expanding biomass sinks can potentially make large contributions at costs that are comparable or lower than for emission source controls. The Kyoto protocol to the framework convention on climate change includes many provisions for forest and land use carbon sequestration projects and activities in its signatories' overall greenhouse gas mitigation plans. In particular, the protocol provides a joint implementation provision and a clean development mechanism that would allow nations to claim credit for carbon sequestration projects undertaken in cooperation with other countries. However, there are many obstacles for implementing an effective program of land use change and forestry carbon credits, especially measurement challenges. This paper explains the difficulty that even impartial analysts have in assessing the carbon offset benefits of projects. When these measurement challenges are combined with self-interest, asymmetries of information, and large numbers, it prevents to a project-based forest and land use carbon credit program may be insurmountable.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号