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1.
The Japanese spacecraft Hayabusa is planed to reach the Asteroid Itokawa in September 2005, and to bring back some samples of its surface to Earth in 2007. We have studied the future possible evolution of this asteroid by integrating numerically over 100 Myr a set of 39 initially indistinguishable orbits (clones), obtained either by small variations of the nominal initial conditions, or by using different computers (introducing different round-off errors). The results indicate that an Earth impact of this 500-m-size asteroid is likely within a million years, which is only a factor of four larger than the average impact frequency of asteroids of this size. The mission Hayabusa may thus sample a good candidate for being among the next 500-m-size Earth impactors.  相似文献   

2.
I. W?odarczyk 《Icarus》2009,203(1):119-123
A method for computing impact probabilities between asteroids and the planet Mars is presented that uses impact clones and validation analysis based on a normal distribution of computed errors. This method uses OrbFit software, and we present a calculation of the impact probabilities between Asteroid 2007 WD5 and Mars, which passed within about 20,000 km of the martian surface on January 30, 2008. This method can be generalized for computing impact probabilities between asteroids and other planets including Earth. Presented method applies in principal the same technique already in use for years at the JPL NASA and by the group of researchers at the University of Pisa [Milani, A., Chesley, S.R., Sansaturio, M.E., Tommei, G., Valsecchi, G.B., 2005a. Icarus 173, 362].  相似文献   

3.
The orbital evolutions of the asteroid 3040 Kozai and model asteroids with similar orbits have been investigated. Their osculating orbits for an epoch 1991 December 10 were numerically integrated forward within the interval of 20,000 years, using a dynamical model of the solar system consisting of all inner planets, Jupiter, and Saturn.The orbit of the asteroid Kozai is stable. Its motion is affected only by long-period perturbations of planets. With change of the argument of perihelion of the asteroid Kozai, the evolution of the model asteroid orbits changes essentially, too. The model orbits with the argument of perihelion changed by the order of 10% show that asteroids with such orbital parameters may approach the Earth orbit, while asteroids with larger changes may even cross it, at least after 10,000 years. Long-term orbital evolution of asteroids with these orbital parameters is very sensitive on their angular elements.  相似文献   

4.
An essential role in the asteroidal dynamics is played by the mean motion resonances. Two-body planet–asteroid resonances are widely known, due to the Kirkwood gaps. Besides, so-called three-body mean motion resonances exist, in which an asteroid and two planets participate. Identification of asteroids in three-body (namely, Jupiter–Saturn–asteroid) resonances was initially accomplished by Nesvorný and Morbidelli (Nesvorný D., Morbidelli, A. [1998]. Astron. J. 116, 3029–3037), who, by means of visual analysis of the time behaviour of resonant arguments, found 255 asteroids to reside in such resonances. We develop specialized algorithms and software for massive automatic identification of asteroids in the three-body, as well as two-body, resonances of arbitrary order, by means of automatic analysis of the time behaviour of resonant arguments. In the computation of orbits, all essential perturbations are taken into account. We integrate the asteroidal orbits on the time interval of 100,000 yr and identify main-belt asteroids in the three-body Jupiter–Saturn–asteroid resonances up to the 6th order inclusive, and in the two-body Jupiter–asteroid resonances up to the 9th order inclusive, in the set of ～250,000 objects from the “Asteroids – Dynamic Site” (AstDyS) database. The percentages of resonant objects, including extrapolations for higher-order resonances, are determined. In particular, the observed fraction of pure-resonant asteroids (those exhibiting resonant libration on the whole interval of integration) in the three-body resonances up to the 6th order inclusive is ≈0.9% of the whole set; and, using a higher-order extrapolation, the actual total fraction of pure-resonant asteroids in the three-body resonances of all orders is estimated as ≈1.1% of the whole set.  相似文献   

5.
The 2/1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter, intersecting the main asteroid belt at ≈3.27  au, contains a small population of objects. Numerical investigations have classified three groups within this population: asteroids residing on stable orbits (i.e. Zhongguos), those on marginally stable orbits with dynamical lifetimes of the order of 100 Myr (i.e. Griquas), and those on unstable orbits. In this paper, we reexamine the origin, evolution and survivability of objects in the 2/1 population. Using recent asteroid survey data, we have identified 100 new members since the last search, which increases the resonant population to 153. The most interesting new asteroids are those located in the theoretically predicted stable island A, which until now had been thought to be empty. We also investigate whether the population of objects residing on the unstable orbits could be resupplied by material from the edges of the 2/1 resonance by the thermal drag force known as the Yarkovsky effect (and by the YORP effect, which is related to the rotational dynamics). Using N -body simulations, we show that test particles pushed into the 2/1 resonance by the Yarkovsky effect visit the regions occupied by the unstable asteroids. We also find that our test bodies have dynamical lifetimes consistent with the integrated orbits of the unstable population. Using a semi-analytical Monte Carlo model, we compute the steady-state size distribution of magnitude   H < 14  asteroids on unstable orbits within the resonance. Our results provide a good match with the available observational data. Finally, we discuss whether some 2/1 objects may be temporarily captured Jupiter-family comets or near-Earth asteroids.  相似文献   

6.
Among 11 673 of near-Earth objects (NEOs), 52 asteroids are identified, which, together with the Eccentrids meteor system, comprise a single population of small bodies of the Solar System with the smallest orbits of high eccentricity. Some features of this unique system of bodies are discussed in this paper. The distribution of perihelion longitudes is studied for the given group of asteroids and compared to that of the Aten asteroids, which are the most similar to the Eccentrids. The dependence is obtained of the character of perihelion longitude distribution on the eccentricities of the NEO orbits. Eight asteroid stream of the Eccentrids are found. The Eccentrids asteroids approaching the Earth’s orbit along its whole length in their aphelia can pose a certain hazard for the Earth.  相似文献   

7.
W.-H. Ip 《Icarus》1977,32(3):378-381
Collision of asteroids with the main-belt asteroid population is considered with the effect of the impact kinetic energy taken into account. It is found that objects in eccentric orbits have a larger probability of destructive collision as compared to objects in orbits with mean values of eccentricity (e = 0.15) and inclination (i = 10°); also orbits with small semimajor axes (a ≈ 2.3 AU) are found to have peak values of the probability of destructive collision.  相似文献   

8.
《Planetary and Space Science》1999,47(6-7):873-881
The ROSETTA spacecraft will fly-by a few asteroids during its course to the final cometary target. The candidate asteroids presently are 3840 Ministrobel (S-type), 2703 Siwa and 140 (C-type).With the limited data presently available on these bodies we calculated some approximate quantities which may be useful to select the fly-by trajectories of the ROSETTA probe. In particular we derived the zones in which particles could stably orbit by analyzing Hills problem of three hierarchical masses—the sun, the asteroid and the orbiting particle. Then, following the approach of Hamilton and Burns, the effects of solar radiation pressure and of the ellipticity of the orbits were also taken into account. In this way for each asteroid we could calculate not only a classical quantity like the radius of the Hill sphere, but also the critical starting orbital distance (as a function of orbital inclination) within which most orbits remain bound to the asteroid, and outside which most escape as a consequence of perturbations. Moreover we determined the orbital stability zone, defined as the union of all the numerically integrated orbits showing long-term stability, for each of the target asteroids. The particular shape of these zones would suggest to have the spacecrafts close approach out of the orbital plane of the asteroids.To further investigate this problem and, in particular, to take into account the irregular shape of the asteroids, we developed a model using a polyhedral representation of the central rotating body, following a theory developed by Werner and Scheeres. This model is described here and the first orbital integration results are presented. © 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.  相似文献   

9.
L.G. Taff 《Icarus》1973,20(1):21-31
We have reinvestegated the suggestion that collisional fragmentation in the asteroid belt can account for its present luminosity function. We suggest, based on the usual Boltzmann-type equation for this process, that for the brightest asteroids the time scale for a catastropic collision is 1.2 × 109yr. However, the assumption of molecular chaos is not valid in the asteroid belt and we demonstrate a new method to determine the necessary corrections. We then obtain, using the new procedure, a lower limit for a collision time. For the above sample it is 2 × 1011yr. This, we believe, rules out collisional evolution of the asteroid belt since its formation. Finally, we also show histograms of eccentricity, inclination, absolute magnitude, height above the ecliptic plane, and argument of perihelion for the 2829 asteroids with well-determined orbits. This represents a synthesis of the numbered asteroid and PLS data.  相似文献   

10.
We investigate the flux of main-belt asteroid fragments into resonant orbits converting them into near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and the variability of this flux due to chance interasteroidal collisions. A numerical model is used, based on collisional physics consistent with the results of laboratory impact experiments. The assumed main-belt asteroid size distribution is derived from that of known asteroids extrapolated down to sizes of ≈ 40 cm, modified in such a way to yield a quasi-stationary fragment production rate over times ≈ 100 Myr. The results show that the asteroid belt can supply a few hundred km-sized NEAs per year, well enough to sustain the current population of such bodies. On the other hand, if our collisional physics is correct, the number of existing 10-km objects implies that these objects either have very long-lived orbits, or must come from a different source (i.e., comets). Our model predicts that the fragments supplied from the asteroid belt have initially a power-law size distribution somewhat steeper than the observed one, suggesting preferential removal of small objects. The component of the NEA population with dynamical lifetimes shorter than or of the order of 1 Myr can vary by a factor reaching up to a few tens, due to single large-scale collisions in the main belt; these fluctuations are enhanced for smaller bodies and faster evolutionary time scales. As a consequence, the Earth's cratering rate can also change by about an order of magnitude over the 0.1 to 1 Myr time scales. Despite these sporadic spikes, when averaged over times of 10 Myr or longer the fluctuations are unlikely to exceed a factor two.  相似文献   

11.
The existing explanations for the asteroid distribution in the main belt (between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter) are based on numerical integration of resonance orbits in models with more than two degrees of freedom. We suggest an approach based on the investigation of the families of periodic solutions of the planar circular restricted three-body problem, i.e., a model with two degrees of freedom. This work shows that (a) the distribution of asteroids near the (p + 1)/p resonances and position of the outer boundary of the main asteroid belt can be explained within the planar circular restricted three-body problem and (b) this problem does not explain the asteroid distribution near other resonances.  相似文献   

12.
Cratering rates on the Galilean satellites   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Zahnle K  Dones L  Levison HF 《Icarus》1998,136(2):202-222
We exploit recent theoretical advances toward the origin and orbital evolution of comets and asteroids to obtain revised estimates for cratering rates in the jovian system. We find that most, probably more than 90%, of the craters on the Galilean satellites are caused by the impact of Jupiter-family comets (JFCs). These are comets with short periods, in generally low-inclination orbits, whose dynamics are dominated by Jupiter. Nearly isotropic comets (long period and Halley-type) contribute at the 1-10% level. Trojan asteroids might also be important at the 1-10% level; if they are important, they would be especially important for smaller craters. Main belt asteroids are currently unimportant, as each 20-km crater made on Ganymede implies the disruption of a 200-km diameter parental asteroid, a destruction rate far beyond the resources of today's asteroid belt. Twenty-kilometer diameter craters are made by kilometer-size impactors; such events occur on a Galilean satellite about once in a million years. The paucity of 20-km craters on Europa indicates that its surface is of order 10 Ma. Lightly cratered surfaces on Ganymede are nominally of order 0.5-1.0 Ga. The uncertainty in these estimates is about a factor of five. Callisto is old, probably more than 4 Ga. It is too heavily cratered to be accounted for by the current flux of JFCs. The lack of pronounced apex-antapex asymmetries on Ganymede may be compatible with crater equilibrium, but it is more easily understood as evidence for nonsynchronous rotation of an icy carapace.  相似文献   

13.
Abstract— Bottke et al. (2007) suggested that the breakup of the Baptistina asteroid family (BAF) 160+30/‐20 Myr ago produced an “asteroid shower” that increased by a factor of 2–3 the impact flux of kilometer‐sized and larger asteroids striking the Earth over the last ?120 Myr. This result led them to propose that the impactor that produced the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) mass extinction event 65 Myr ago also may have come from the BAF. This putative link was based both on collisional/dynamical modeling work and on physical evidence. For the latter, the available broadband color and spectroscopic data on BAF members indicate many are likely to be dark, low albedo asteroids. This is consistent with the carbonaceous chondrite‐like nature of a 65 Myr old fossil meteorite (Kyte 1998) and with chromium from K/T boundary sediments with an isotopic signature similar to that from CM2 carbonaceous chondrites. To test elements of this scenario, we obtained near‐IR and thermal IR spectroscopic data of asteroid 298 Baptistina using the NASA IRTF in order to determine surface mineralogy and estimate its albedo. We found that the asteroid has moderately strong absorption features due to the presence of olivine and pyroxene, and a moderately high albedo (?20%). These combined properties strongly suggest that the asteroid is more like an S‐type rather than Xc‐type (Mothé‐Diniz et al. 2005). This weakens the case for 298 Baptistina being a CM2 carbonaceous chondrite and its link to the K/T impactor. We also observed several bright (V Mag. ≤16.8) BAF members to determine their composition.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract— In an effort to understand the origin of Main Belt comets (MBCs) 7968 Elst‐Pizzaro, 118401, and P/2005 U1, the dynamics of these three icy asteroids and a large number of hypothetical MBCs were studied. Results of extensive numerical integrations of these objects suggest that they were formed in place through the collisional breakup of a larger precursor body. Simulations point specifically to the Themis family of asteroids as the origin of these objects and rule out the possibility of a cometary origin (i.e., inward scattering of comets from outer solar system and their primordial capture in the asteroid belt). Results also indicate that while 7968 Elst‐Pizzaro and 118401 maintain their orbits for 1 Gyr, P/2005 U1 diffuses chaotically in eccentricity and becomes unstable in ?20 Myr. The latter suggest that this MBC used to be a member of the Themis family and is now escaping away. Numerical integrations of the orbits of hypothetical MBCs in the vicinity of the Themis family show a clustering of stable orbits (with eccentricities smaller than 0.2 and inclinations less than 25°) suggesting that many more MBCs may exist in the vicinity of this family (although they might have not been activated yet). The details of the results of simulations and the constraints on the models of the formation and origins of MBCs are presented and their implications for the detection of more of these objects are discussed.  相似文献   

15.
Besides new observations, mining old photographic plates and CCD image archives represents an opportunity to recover and secure newly discovered asteroids, also to improve the orbits of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) and Virtual Impactors (VIs). These are the main research aims of the EURONEAR network. As stated by the IAU, the vast collection of image archives stored worldwide is still insufficiently explored, and could be mined for known NEAs and other asteroids appearing occasionally in their fields. This data mining could be eased using a server to search and classify findings based on the asteroid class and the discovery date as “precoveries” or “recoveries”. We built PRECOVERY, a public facility which uses the Virtual Observatory SkyBoT webservice of IMCCE to search for all known Solar System objects in a given observation. To datamine an entire archive, PRECOVERY requires the observing log in a standard format and outputs a database listing the sorted encounters of NEAs, PHAs, numbered and un‐numbered asteroids classified as precoveries or recoveries based on the daily updated IAU MPC database. As a first application, we considered an archive including about 13 000 photographic plates exposed between 1930 and 2005 at the Astronomical Observatory in Bucharest, Romania. Firstly, we updated the database, homogenizing dates and pointings to a common format using the JD dating system and J2000 epoch. All the asteroids observed in planned mode were recovered, proving the accuracy of PRECOVERY. Despite the large field of the plates imaging mostly 2.27° × 2.27° fields, no NEA or PHA could be encountered occasionally in the archive due to the small aperture of the 0.38m refractor insufficiently to detect objects fainter than V ∼ 15. PRECOVERY can be applied to other archives, being intended as a public facility offered to the community by the EURONEAR project. This is the first of a series of papers aimed to improve orbits of PHAs and NEAs using precovered data derived from archives of images to be data mined in collaboration with students and amateurs. In the next paper we will search the CFHT Legacy Survey, while data mining of other archives is planned for the near future (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

16.
Based on numerical calculations of the evolution of asteroid orbits, we concluded in one of our previous papers that a nongravitational effect causing the spatial separation of asteroids with different albedos and with sizes of tens of kilometers could act in the Solar system. To find new arguments, we have analyzed the residuals in the catalogs of asteroid orbits for 1996 and 2006. The dependences pointing to the possibility of a nongravitational effect for orbits with larger residuals have been found to be more distinct than those for orbits with smaller residuals. This result may be considered as an indirect confirmation of the above nongravitational effect.  相似文献   

17.
The volume of observational information on asteroids and trans-Neptunians with satellites has significantly increased in recent years. In this paper we study the dependence of asteroid duplicity on the main physical parameters of the primary: the size and rotation rate. The proportion of binary asteroids is shown to grow rapidly with the rotation rate of the primary. The pattern of dependence between asteroid duplicity and size is more complex, with peaks in the area of small (<10 km) and large (>100 km) bodies. Noteworthy is the small number of binaries among typical-sized asteroids (10–150 km). All the orbits of asteroidal satellites whose rotation direction is known are shown to be prograde and have small eccentricities and inclinations.  相似文献   

18.
Ronald A. Fevig  Uwe Fink 《Icarus》2007,188(1):175-188
Results of our visible to near-infrared spectrophotometric observations of 41 near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) are reported. These moderate-resolution spectra, along with 14 previously published spectra from our earlier survey [Hicks, M.D., Fink, U., Grundy, W.M., 1998. Icarus 133, 69-78] show a preponderance of spectra consistent with ordinary chondrites (23 NEAs with this type of spectrum, along with 19 S-types and 13 in other taxonomic groups). There exists statistically significant evidence for orbit-dependent trends in our data. While S-type NEAs from our survey reside primarily in (1) Amor orbits or (2) Aten or Apollo orbits which do not cross the asteroid main-belt, the majority of objects with spectra consistent with ordinary chondrites in our survey are in highly eccentric Apollo orbits which enter the asteroid main-belt. This trend toward fresh, relatively unweathered NEAs with ordinary chondrite type spectra in highly eccentric Apollo orbits is attributed to one or a combination of three possible causes: (1) the chaotic nature of NEA orbits can easily result in high eccentricity orbits/large aphelion distances so that they can enter the collisionally enhanced environment in the main-belt, exposing fresh surfaces, (2) they have recently been injected into such orbits after a collision in the main-belt, or (3) such objects cross the orbits of several terrestrial planets, causing tidal disruption events that expose fresh surfaces.  相似文献   

19.
We have performed new simulations of two different scenarios for the excitation and depletion of the primordial asteroid belt, assuming Jupiter and Saturn on initially circular orbits as predicted by the Nice Model of the evolution of the outer Solar System [Gomes, R., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Morbidelli, A., 2005. Nature 435, 466-469; Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., 2005. Nature 435, 459-461; Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., 2005. Nature 435, 462-465]. First, we study the effects of sweeping secular resonances driven by the depletion of the solar nebula. We find that these sweeping secular resonances are incapable of giving sufficient dynamical excitation to the asteroids for nebula depletion timescales consistent with estimates for solar-type stars, and in addition cannot cause significant mass depletion in the asteroid belt or produce the observed radial mixing of different asteroid taxonomic types. Second, we study the effects of planetary embryos embedded in the primordial asteroid belt. These embedded planetary embryos, combined with the action of jovian and saturnian resonances, can lead to dynamical excitation and radial mixing comparable to the current asteroid belt. The mass depletion driven by embedded planetary embryos alone, even in the case of an eccentric Jupiter and Saturn, is roughly 10-20× less than necessary to explain the current mass of the main belt, and thus a secondary depletion event, such as that which occurs naturally in the Nice Model, is required. We discuss the implications of our new simulations for the dynamical and collisional evolution of the main belt.  相似文献   

20.
We propose a numerical method for quick evaluation of the probability that an asteroid will collide with a planet. The method is based on linear mappings of an expected moment of a close approach of the asteroid to the planet and the detection of collisions of the virtual objects with the massive body. The standard way for solving the problem of estimating the collision probability consists in simulating the evolution of the uncertainty cloud numerically based on the stepwise integration of virtual orbits. This is naturally associated with huge processor time costs. The proposed method is tested using the examples of the 2011 AG5 and 2007 VK184 asteroids that are presently in the top of the list of the most dangerous celestial objects. The test results show that linear mappings allow one to obtain the estimates of probabilities quicker by several orders than numerical integration of all virtual orbits.  相似文献   

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