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1.
Codie Wilson Stephanie K. Kampf Sandra Ryan Tim Covino Lee H. MacDonald Hunter Gleason 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13975
Wildfire increases the potential connectivity of runoff and sediment throughout watersheds due to greater bare soil, runoff and erosion as compared to pre-fire conditions. This research examines the connectivity of post-fire runoff and sediment from hillslopes (< 1.5 ha; n = 31) and catchments (< 1000 ha; n = 10) within two watersheds (< 1500 ha) burned by the 2012 High Park Fire in northcentral Colorado, USA. Our objectives were to: (1) identify sources and quantify magnitudes of post-fire runoff and erosion at nested hillslopes and watersheds for two rain storms with varied duration, intensity and antecedent precipitation; and (2) assess the factors affecting the magnitude and connectivity of runoff and sediment across spatial scales for these two rain storms. The two summer storms that are the focus of this research occurred during the third summer after burning. The first storm had low intensity rainfall over 11 hours (return interval <1–2 years), whereas the second event had high intensity rainfall over 1 hour (return interval <1–10 years). The lower intensity storm was preceded by high antecedent rainfall and led to low hillslope sediment yields and channel incision at most locations, whereas the high intensity storm led to infiltration-excess overland flow, high sediment yields, in-stream sediment deposition and channel substrate fining. For both storms, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios and area-normalised cross-sectional channel change increased with the percent of catchment that burned at high severity. For the high intensity storm, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios decreased with unconfined channel length (%). The findings quantify post-fire connectivity and sediment delivery from hillslopes and streams, and highlight how different types of storms can cause varying magnitues and spatial patterns of sediment transport and deposition from hillslopes through stream channel networks. 相似文献
2.
Large floods are often attributed to the melting of snow during a rain event. This study tested how climate variability, snowpack presence, and basin physiography were related to storm hydrograph shape in three small (<1 km2) basins with old‐growth forest in western Oregon. Relationships between hydrograph characteristics and precipitation were tested for approximately 800 storms over a nearly 30‐year period. Analyses controlled for (1) snowpack presence/absence, (2) antecedent soil moisture, and (3) hillslope length and gradient. For small storms (<150 mm precipitation), controlling for precipitation, the presence of a snowpack on near‐saturated soil increased the threshold of precipitation before hydrograph rise, extended the start lag, centroid lag, and duration of storm hydrographs, and increased the peak discharge. The presence of a snowpack on near‐saturated soil sped up and steepened storm hydrographs in a basin with short steep slopes, but delayed storm hydrographs in basins with longer or more gentle slopes. Hydrographs of the largest events, which were extreme regional rain and rain‐on‐snow floods, were not sensitive to landform characteristics or snowpack presence/absence. Although the presence of a snowpack did not increase peak discharge in small, forested basins during large storms, it had contrasting effects on storm timing in small basins, potentially synchronizing small basin contributions to the larger basin hydrograph during large rain‐on‐snow events. By altering the relative timing of hydrographs, snowpack melting could produce extreme floods from precipitation events whose size is not extreme. Further work is needed to examine effects of canopy openings, snowpack, and climate warming on extreme rain‐on‐snow floods at the large basin scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
Rainfall and flood data are relatively sparse in semi‐arid areas; hence there have been relatively few investigations into the relationships between rainfall inputs and flood generation in these environments. Previous work has shown that flood properties are influenced by a combination of precipitation characteristics including amount, intensity, duration and spatial distribution. Therefore floods may be produced by high intensity, short duration storms, or longer duration, low intensity rainfall. Most of this research has been undertaken in small catchments in either hyper‐arid or relatively high rainfall Mediterranean climates. This paper presents results from a 6 year data record in south‐east Spain from research conducted in two basins, the Rambla Nogalte (171 km2) and the Rambla de Torrealvilla (200 km2). Data cover an area of approximately 500 km2 and an annual average rainfall of 300 mm. At coarse temporal resolutions gauges spread over large areas record similar patterns of rainfall, although spells of rain show much more complexity; pulses of rain within storms can vary considerably in total rainfall, intensity and duration over the same area. The analysis for south‐east Spain shows that most storms occur over a period of less than 24 h, but that the number of rainfall events declines as the duration exceeds 8 h. This is at odds with data on floods for the study area suggesting that they are produced by storms lasting longer than 18 h. However, one flood event was produced by a very short (15 min) storm with high intensity rainfall. Most floods tended to occur in May/June or September, which coincides with wetter months of the year (September, October, December and May). Floods are also more highly related to the total rainfall occurring in a spell of rain, than to intensity. The complexity of storm rainfall increases with the storm total, which makes it difficult to generalize on the importance of rainfall intensity for flood generation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event: the AD 1634 North Sea storm 
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下载免费PDF全文 The AD 1634 North Sea storm is one of the most catastrophic storms along the Wadden Sea coast of Denmark. In this study we show how pre‐1634 storm morphology exerted a strong control on the resulting post‐storm coastal morphology. Erosional responses associated with the storm were barrier breaching, dune scarping and shoreface erosion and accretionary responses were washover deposition, shoreface healing and barrier‐island formation. Local sediment sources appeared to have a particularly strong influence on post‐storm coastal evolution and allowed a very rapid formation of a barrier shoal which resulted in several kilometres of coastal progradation. Sediment budgets suggest that formation of the barrier shoal was possible, but the sediment transport rates in the decades after the 1634 storm, must have been two to three times higher than present‐day rates. The study demonstrates that catastrophic storms are capable of moving large amounts of sediments over relatively short time‐periods and can create barrier shoals, whereas moderate storms mostly rework the shoal or barrier and create more local erosion and/or landward migration. Catastrophic storms substantially influence long‐term and large‐scale coastal evolution, and storms may positively contribute to the sediment budget and promote coastal progradation in coastal areas with longshore sediment convergence. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km2 catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Seasonal variations in the onset of magnetic storms are investigated. For the purposes of this study storms have been defined as events in which Dst falls below -50 nT for at least four consecutive hours. The storms have been classified as either storm sudden commencements (SSCs; storms initiated by a sudden commencement) or as storm gradual commencements (SGCs; all other storms). It is found that the semi-annual variation of magnetic activity is reflected in the occurrence statistics of SGC events only, indicative that the solar wind origin is different for SSCs and SGCs. It is suggested that the heliospheric latitude model of seasonal magnetic activity is relatively ineffective in modulating the previously observed seasonal variations in the occurrence of magnetic storms. 相似文献
7.
赤道环电流是引起磁暴扰动的主要电流体系,环电流衰减速率极大地影响着磁层能量收支估计和磁暴预报.本文提出评价环电流衰减率的两条新指标;（1）E指标（磁暴事件总能量收支平衡指标）,即磁暴全过程的积分能量收支平衡;（2）L指标（长期总能量收支平衡指标）,即几年、十几年或更长时段内积分能量收支平衡.我们用1998~2003年44个磁暴事件以及第23太阳周（1998~2008年）11年的连续资料,分别检验了几类衰减率模型对上述两条指标符合的情况.结果表明,PA1978和XD2010两类模型对E指标符合得最好,即无论磁暴强弱,它们均显示出事件总能量收支平衡的基本特征;同时,这两类模型与L指标符合得也最好,即它们的长期积分能量基本平衡,而且磁暴期间的能量消耗表现出明显增强的重要特征. 相似文献
8.
Although rainfall is assumed spatially uniform in conventional hydrological modelling for rainfall–runoff simulations, moving storms have been shown to have substantial influence on flow hydrographs. In this study, criteria for attainment of the equilibrium discharge from watersheds subjected to moving storms were examined. Non-linear numerical kinematic-wave models were developed to simulate runoff from an overland plane and from a V-shaped catchment. Dimensional analysis was applied to obtain the independent variables to be used as control factors in performing a series of numerical tests. The results indicate that, for storms moving downstream, runoff can attain equilibrium discharge even though the storm length is shorter than the watershed length and the rainfall duration is less than the time to equilibrium of the watershed for stationary uniform storms. The phenomenon of attainment of equilibrium discharge from watersheds subjected to moving storms is contradictory to conventional hydrologic design, which assumes the storm duration must equal the time to equilibrium to attain the maximum discharge. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
Methods for estimating the magnitude of extreme floods are reviewed. A method which combines a probabilistic storm transposition technique with a physically-based distributed rainfallrunoff model is described. Synthetic storms with detailed spatial and temporal distributions are generated and applied to the calibrated model of the Brue river basin, U.K. (area 135 km2). The variability of catchment response due to storm characteristics (storm area, storm duration, storm movement, storm shape and within storm variation) and initial catchment wetness conditions is investigated. A probabilistic approach to estimating the return periods of extreme catchment responses is suggested. 相似文献
10.
Less attention has been paid to runoff generation from semi-arid than from humid-temperate catchments. The SCS curve number approach is simple to apply and widely used, but lacks physical underpinning. Here output from a runoff generation models is compared with data from field measurements, making use of 11 years data from rainfall and runoff events at the Sierra de Enguera Soil Erosion Experimental Station in Eastern Spain. Runoff from natural rainfall events was monitored for 10 years on bare plots of 1–16 m length. The largest storm event was of 142 mm, generating runoff of up to 115 mm on the smallest plots. The model presented simulates overland storm flow on a sloping rough and unvegetated surface, representing an area of 320 × 320 m. Green-Ampt infiltration constants are randomly assigned to each cell in a 128 × 128 grid, and rectangular storms applied at a range of total amounts and intensities to simulate runoff at each transect across the area. A simple algebraic expression is developed to estimate total runoff and storage in terms of storm size and duration, and plot length, with parameters that reflect infiltration behaviour, and this expression is compared with the SCS curve number approach. For the very largest storms, both expressions converge asymptotically towards 100% runoff, but the revised expression greatly improves estimates of runoff from smaller events. Output of these simulations is compared with measured storm runoff data on bare runoff plots at the Sierra de Enguera experimental Station in SE Spain and gives further support to the proposed expression for storm runoff. 相似文献
11.
In December 2008, 694 trees uprooted within a 108 ha (1·08 km2) watershed in central Massachusetts due to a severe ice storm, resulting in the displacement of ~1300 m3 of root material, unconsolidated sediment, and fractured bedrock. Overall, we find that uprooting and tree throw is often grouped in clusters and cascades; conifers displace more material than deciduous trees; areas with abundant mature hemlock and steep slopes are more susceptible to tree throw, with clusters as dense as 125 per hectare; and failure is predominantly downhill, suggesting that ice storms promote efficient downslope hillslope sediment transport in northern hardwood forests. Combining the recurrence interval of severe storms in New England (20–75 years) with the forest response presented here, we calculate a sediment transport rate of 2–5 × 10?5 m3 m?1 a?1 averaged over the entire watershed. Forest susceptibility to tree throw differed based on location in the watershed; some areas experienced up to ~30× higher than average sediment transport rates, while others experienced no tree throw. Two severe storms following the 2008 ice storm (hurricane in 2011; snow storm in October 2012) did not result in significant tree throw within the study area, highlighting that the coupling of storm severity and forest susceptibility controls the amount of tree throw during a given forest disturbance. In addition to recent tree throw from the 2008 ice storm, widespread pit and mound microtopography in the study area indicates that tree throw is a recurrent process in this landscape. Two factors emerge that will influence future ice storms related hillslope sediment transport in the steep forested hillslopes of New England: regional climate gradients and changing climate determine the size, intensity and recurrence of ice storms; forest management practices and health control the tree age and type. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Rainfall characteristics are key factors influencing infiltration and runoff generation in catchment hydrology, particularly for arid and semiarid catchments. Although the effect of storm movement on rainfall-runoff processes has been evaluated and emphasized since the 1960s, the effect on the infiltration process has barely been considered. In this study, a physically based distributed hydrological model (InHM) was applied to a typical semi-arid catchment (Shejiagou, 4.26 km2) located in the Loess Plateau, China, to investigate the effect of storm movement on infiltration, runoff and soil erosion at the catchment scale. Simulations of 84 scenarios of storm movement were conducted, including storms moving across the catchment in both the upstream and downstream directions along the main channel, while in each direction considering four storm moving speeds, three rainfall depths and two storm ranges. The simulation results showed that, on both the hillslopes facing downstream (facing south) and in the main channel, the duration of the overland flow process under the upstream-moving storms was longer than that under the downstream-moving storms. Thus, the duration and volume of infiltration under upstream-moving storms were larger in these areas. For the Shejiagou catchment, as there are more hillslopes facing downstream, more infiltration occurred under the upstream-moving storms than the downstream-moving storms. Therefore, downstream-moving storms generated up to 69% larger total runoff and up to 351% more soil loss in the catchment than upstream-moving storms. The difference in infiltration between the storms moving upstream and downstream decreased as the storm moving speed increased. The relative difference in total runoff and sediment yield between the storms moving upstream and downstream decreased with increasing rainfall depth and storm speed. The results of this study revealed that the infiltration differences under moving storms largely influenced the total runoff and sediment yield at the catchment scale, which is of importance in runoff prediction and flood management. The infiltration differences may be a potential factor leading to different groundwater, vegetation cover and ecology conditions for the different sides of the hillslopes. 相似文献
13.
Elsa S. Culler Andrew M. Badger Justin Toby Minear Kristy F. Tiampo Spencer D. Zeigler Ben Livneh 《水文研究》2021,35(7):e14260
Extreme precipitation can have profound consequences for communities, resulting in natural hazards such as rainfall-triggered landslides that cause casualties and extensive property damage. A key challenge to understanding and predicting rainfall-triggered landslides comes from observational uncertainties in the depth and intensity of precipitation preceding the event. Practitioners and researchers must select from a wide range of precipitation products, often with little guidance. Here we evaluate the degree of precipitation uncertainty across multiple precipitation products for a large set of landslide-triggering storm events and investigate the impact of these uncertainties on predicted landslide probability using published intensity–duration thresholds. The average intensity, peak intensity, duration, and NOAA-Atlas return periods are compared ahead of 177 reported landslides across the continental United States and Canada. Precipitation data are taken from four products that cover disparate measurement methods: near real-time and post-processed satellite (IMERG), radar (MRMS), and gauge-based (NLDAS-2). Landslide-triggering precipitation was found to vary widely across precipitation products with the depth of individual storm events diverging by as much as 296 mm with an average range of 51 mm. Peak intensity measurements, which are typically influential in triggering landslides, were also highly variable with an average range of 7.8 mm/h and as much as 57 mm/h. The two products more reliant upon ground-based observations (MRMS and NLDAS-2) performed better at identifying landslides according to published intensity–duration storm thresholds, but all products exhibited hit ratios of greater than 0.56. A greater proportion of landslides were predicted when including only manually verified landslide locations. We recommend practitioners consider low-latency products like MRMS for investigating landslides, given their near-real time data availability and good performance in detecting landslides. Practitioners would be well-served considering more than one product as a way to confirm intense storm signals and minimize the influence of noise and false alarms. 相似文献
14.
V. P. Singh 《水文研究》2005,19(4):969-992
Using kinematic wave equations analytical solutions are derived for flow resulting from a storm moving either up or down an infiltrating plane but not fully covering it. By comparing the flow resulting from this storm with that from a stationary storm of the same duration the influence of storm duration, direction and velocity is investigated. It is found that the direction of storm movement, duration and velocity of storms, as well as basin infiltration, have a pronounced effect on the discharge hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
Hamit N. PAMIR 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):40-49
Abstract Almost all runoff from the semiarid rangelands of the Southwestern United States results from intense convective storms of short duration. Depth-duration values for precipitation for this region that are developed through standard procedures may be misleading when used for runoff design. Various combinations of short bursts of rain can, and do, plot on average depth-duration curves, but such curves have little practical meaning for small watersheds (100 square miles or less). For design purposes for small watersheds, depths of precipitation for relatively short periods (15-30-60 minutes) for varying return periods and areas are needed. For runoff design for larger watersheds two probability estimates may be needed—the probability of storms of certain intensities and size falling on tributary watersheds of finite sizes, and the probability of storms developing over a multi-tributary system in such patterns as to produce important volumes and peaks of runoff. 相似文献
16.
Mark D. Bateman Greg Rushby Sam Stein Robert A. Ashurst David Stevenson Julie M. Jones W. Roland Gehrels 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(4):779-790
Knowing the long‐term frequency of high magnitude storm events that cause coastal inundation is critical for present coastal management, especially in the context of rising sea levels and potentially increasing frequency and severity of storm events. Coastal sand dunes may provide a sedimentary archive of past storm events from which long‐term frequencies of large storms can be reconstructed. This study uses novel portable optically stimulated luminescence (POSL) profiles from coastal dunes to reconstruct the sedimentary archive of storm and surge activity for Norfolk, UK. Application of POSL profiling with supporting luminescence ages and particle size analysis to coastal dunes provides not only information of dunefield evolution but also on past coastal storms. In this study, seven storm events, two major, were identified from the dune archive spanning the last 140 years. These appear to correspond to historical reports of major storm surges. Dunes appear to be only recording (at least at the sampling resolution used here) the highest storm levels that were associated with significant flooding. As such the approach seems to hold promise to obtain a better understanding of the frequency of large storms by extending the dune archive records further back to times when documentation of storm surges was sparse. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 相似文献
17.
Vijay P. Singh 《水文研究》2002,16(17):3437-3466
Using kinematic wave equations, analytical solutions are derived for flow resulting from storms moving either up or down the plane and covering it fully or partially. By comparing the flow resulting from a moving storm with that from a stationary storm of the same duration and areal coverage, the influence of storm duration, direction and areal coverage is investigated. It is found that the direction, duration and areal coverage of storm movement have a pronounced effect on the discharge hydrograph. The runoff hydrographs resulting from storms moving downstream are quite different from those from storms moving upstream. Likewise, the areal coverage of the storm has a pronounced effect on the runoff hydrograph. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Daan Wesselman Renske de Winter Anita Engelstad Robert McCall Ap van Dongeren Piet Hoekstra Albert Oost Maarten van der Vegt 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(3):579-592
Under natural conditions, barrier islands might grow vertically and migrate onshore under the influence of long‐term sea level rise. Sediment is transported onshore during storm‐induced overwash and inundation. However, on many Dutch Wadden Islands, dune openings are closed off by artificial sand‐drift dikes that prevent the influx of sediment during storms. It has been argued that creating openings in the dune row to allow regular flooding on barrier islands can have a positive effect on the sediment budget, but the dominant hydrodynamic processes and their influence on sediment transport during overwash and inundation are unknown. Here, we present an XBeach model study to investigate how sediment transport during overwash and inundation across the beach of a typical mesotidal Wadden Sea barrier island is influenced by wave, tide and storm surge conditions. Firstly, we validated the model XBeach with field data on waves and currents during island inundation. In general, the XBeach model performed well. Secondly, we studied the long‐term sediment transport across the barrier island. We distinguished six representative inundation classes, ranging from frequently occurring, low‐energy events to infrequent, high‐energy events, and simulated the hydrodynamics and sediment transport during these events. An analysis of the model simulations shows that larger storm events cause larger cross‐shore sediment transport, but the net sediment exchange during a storm levels off or even becomes smaller for the largest inundation classes because it is counteracted by larger mean water levels in the Wadden Sea that oppose or even reverse sediment transport during inundation. When taking into account the frequency of occurrence of storms we conclude that the cumulative effect of relatively mild storms on long‐term cross‐shore sediment transport is much larger than that of the large storm events. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 相似文献
19.
Variability of dissolved organic carbon in precipitation during storms at the Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Lidiia Iavorivska Elizabeth W. Boyer Jeffrey W. Grimm Matthew P. Miller David R. DeWalle Kenneth J. Davis Margot W. Kaye 《水文研究》2017,31(16):2935-2950
Organic compounds are removed from the atmosphere and deposited to the Earth's surface via precipitation. In this study, we quantified variations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in precipitation during storm events at the Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory, a forested watershed in central Pennsylvania (USA). Precipitation samples were collected consecutively throughout the storm during 13 events, which spanned a range of seasons and synoptic meteorological conditions, including a hurricane. Further, we explored factors that affect the temporal variability by considering relationships of DOC in precipitation with atmospheric and storm characteristics. Concentrations and chemical composition of DOC changed considerably during storms, with the magnitude of change within individual events being comparable or higher than the range of variation in average event composition among events. Although some previous studies observed that concentrations of other elements in precipitation typically decrease over the course of individual storm events, results of this study show that DOC concentrations in precipitation are highly variable. During most storm events, concentrations decreased over time, possibly as a result of washing out of the below‐cloud atmosphere. However, increasing concentrations that were observed in the later stages of some storm events highlight that DOC removal with precipitation is not merely a dilution response. Increases in DOC during events could result from advection of air masses, local emissions during breaks in precipitation, or chemical transformations in the atmosphere that enhance solubility of organic carbon compounds. This work advances understanding of processes occurring during storms that are relevant to studies of atmospheric chemistry, carbon cycling, and ecosystem responses. 相似文献
20.
Robert E. Criss 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1607-1615
The rainfall–run‐off convolution integral is analytically solved for several models for the elementary hydrograph. These solutions can be combined with available rainfall frequency analyses to predict flood flows along streams for different recurrence intervals, using no free parameters for gauged streams and one estimable parameter for ungauged streams. Extreme discharge magnitudes at gauged sites can be typically estimated within a factor of two of actual records, using no historical data on extreme flows. The flow predictions reproduce several important characteristics of the flood phenomenon, such as the slope of the regression line between observed extreme flows and basin area on the conventional logQ versus logA plot. Importantly, for the models and data sets investigated, the storm duration of greatest significance to flooding was found to approximate the intrinsic transport timescale of the particular watershed, which increases with basin size. Thus, storms that deliver extraordinary amounts of rainfall over a particular time interval will most greatly activate basins whose time constants approximately equal that interval. This theoretical finding is supported by examination of the regional hydrological response to the massive storms of September 14, 2008, and April 28–30, 2017, which caused extraordinary record flooding of basins of about 5–100 km2 and 500–4,000 km2, respectively, but produced few records in basins that were larger or smaller than those ranges. 相似文献