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1.
Social, economic, and environmental systems can be vulnerable to disruptions in water supplies that are likely to accompany future climate changes. Coupled with the challenges of tightening environmental regulations, population growth, economic development and fiscal constraints water supply systems are being pushed beyond the limits of their design and capacity for maintenance. In this paper we briefly review key economic concepts, various economic measures and metrics, and methods to estimate the economic effects on water resources from water supply changes that could accompany climate change. We survey some of the recent empirical literature that focuses on estimates developed for U.S. watersheds at both national and regional scales. Reported estimates of potential damage and loss associated with climate and water supply changes that we observe are significant, though often the metrics vary and make valid and consistent direct cross-comparisons difficult. Whether in terms of changes in GDP or in terms of estimated changes in economic welfare based on associated changes in economic costs and benefits, both national and regional estimates suggest that governments and organizations incorporate prudent steps to assess vulnerabilities to plausible future water supply and demand scenarios and develop responsive adaptation strategies. 相似文献
2.
Climate science to date demonstrates that natural and human systems must urgently adapt. Adaptation refers to changes in societies and ecological systems as they respond to both actual and anticipated impacts of the changing climate. While adaptation is not limited to the level of planning and policy, existing adaptation practice privileges institutional action. We argue that the definition of adaptation should be broadened to include the small, incremental changes made in our daily lives to accommodate the shifting ecologies in which we live. Drawing on critical adaptation research and our own ethnographic fieldwork in the Global South, we define everyday adaptation as the shifted ways a person works, eats, lives and thinks in response to climate realities, rather than the hardening of coastlines or the relocation of vulnerable structures. We integrate and build on existing scholarship on adaptation and the everyday to theorize the logics of everyday, hyperlocal adaptation. This hyperlocal scale is a critical component of any definition of adaptation and a useful lens for studying the way much of the global population adapts and will continue to adapt their lives to climate change. We offer two theoretical components of adaptation revealed by the everyday - adaptation labor and value adaptation – as lenses to see changes in everyday action. Through considering hyperlocal action, we then identify and explore four logics of everyday adaptation actions: lifestyle stability, socio-ecological reactivity, livelihood flexibility, and community capacity. Everyday adaptations are limited by individuals’ capacity to adapt and thereby determine the longevity, livability, and quality of life of places on the frontlines of climate change. We argue for understanding the aggregate effects of everyday adaptation in order to better align the actions of those living with climate change in their everyday lives and the large-scale adaptation projects aiming to protect them. 相似文献
3.
Impact of climate change on ecohydrologic processes of Mediterranean watersheds are significant and require quick action toward improving adaptation and management of fragile system. Increase in water shortages and land use can alter the water balance and ecological health of the watershed systems. Intensification of land use, increase in water abstraction, and decline in water quality can be enhanced by changes in temperature and precipitation regimes. Ecohydrologic changes from climatic impacts alter runoff, evapotranspiration, surface storage, and soil moisture that directly affect biota and habitat of the region. This paper reviews expected impacts of climatic change on the ecohydrology of watershed systems of the Mediterranean and identifies adaptation strategies to increase the resilience of the systems. A spatial assessment of changes in temperature and precipitation estimates from a multimodel ensemble is used to identify potential climatic impacts on watershed systems. This is augmented with literature on ecohydrologic impacts in watershed systems of the region. Hydrologic implications are discussed through the lens of geographic distribution and upstream-downstream dynamics in watershed systems. Specific implications of climatic change studied are on runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, lake levels, water quality, habitat, species distribution, biodiversity, and economic status of countries. It is observed that climatic change can have significant impacts on the ecohydrologic processes in the Mediterranean watersheds. Vulnerability varied depending on the geography, landscape characteristics, and human activities in a watershed. Increasing the resilience of watershed systems can be an effective strategy to adapt to climatic impacts. Several strategies are identified that can increase the resilience of the watersheds to climatic and land use change stress. Understanding the ecohydrologic processes is vital to development of effective long-term strategies to improve the resilience of watersheds. There is need for further research into ecohydrologic dynamics at multiple scales, improved resolution of climatic predictions to local scales, and implications of disruptions on regional economies. 相似文献
4.
Adjusting water resources management to climate change 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
The nature of climate impacts and adjustment in water supply and flood management is discussed, and a case study of water manager response to climate fluctuation in California's Sacramento Basin is presented. The case illuminates the effect on climate impact and response of traditional management approaches, the dynamic qualities of maturing water systems, socially imposed constraints, and climate extremes. A dual pattern of crisisresponse and gradual adjustment emerges, and specific mechanisms for effecting adjustment of water management systems are identified. The case study, and broader trends in U.S. water development, suggest that oversized structural capacity, the traditional adjustment to climate variability in water resources, may prove less feasible in the future as projects become smaller and new facilities are delayed by economic and environmental concerns. 相似文献
5.
Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Change: Workshop Summary and Recommendations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The International Workshop on Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Climate Change
held in Ljubljana, Solvenia, from 7 to 9 October 2002 addressed a range of important issues relating to climate variability,
climate change, agriculture, and forestry including the state of agriculture and forestry and agrometeological information,
and potential adaptation strategies for agriculture and forestry to changing climate conditions and other pressures. There
is evidence that global warming over the last millennium has already resulted in increased global average annual temperature
and changes in rainfall, with the 1990s being likely the warmest decade in the Northern Hemisphere at least. During the past
century, changes in temperature patterns have, for example, had a direct impact on the number of frost days and the length
of growing seasons with significant implications for agriculture and forestry. Land cover changes, changes in global ocean
circulation and sea surface temperature patterns, and changes in the composition of the global atmosphere are leading to changes
in rainfall. These changes may be more pronounced in the tropics. For example, crop varieties grown in the Sahel may not be
able to withstand the projected warming trends and will certainly be at risk due to projected lower amounts of rainfall as
well. Seasonal to interannual climate forecasts will definitely improve in the future with a better understanding of dynamic
relationships. However, the main issue at present is how to make better use of the existing information and dispersion of
knowledge to the farm level. Direct participation by the farming communities in pilot projects on agrometeorological services
will be essential to determine the actual value of forecasts and to better identify the specific user needs. Old (visits,
extension radio) and new (internet) communication techniques, when adapted to local applications, may assist in the dissemination
of useful information to the farmers and decision makers. Some farming systems with an inherent resilience may adapt more
readily to climate pressures, making long-term adjustments to varying and changing conditions. Other systems will need interventions
for adaptation that should be more strongly supported by agrometeorological services for agricultural producers. This applies,
among others, to systems where pests and diseases play an important role. Scientists have to guide policy makers in fostering
an environment in which adaptation strategies can be effected. There is a clear need for integrating preparedness for climate
variability and climate change. In developed countries, a trend of higher yields, but with greater annual fluctuations and
changes in cropping patterns and crop calendars can be expected with changing climate scenarios. Shifts in projected cropping
patterns can be disruptive to rural societies in general. However, developed countries have the technology to adapt more readily
to the projected climate changes. In many developing countries, the present conditions of agriculture and forestry are already
marginal, due to degradation of natural resources, the use of inappropriate technologies and other stresses. For these reasons,
the ability to adapt will be more difficult in the tropics and subtropics and in countries in transition. Food security will
remain a problem in many developing countries. Nevertheless, there are many examples of traditional knowledge, indigenous
technologies and local innovations that can be used effectively as a foundation for improved farming systems. Before developing
adaptation strategies, it is essential to learn from the actual difficulties faced by farmers to cope with risk management
at the farm level. Agrometeorologists must play an important role in assisting farmers with the development of feasible strategies
to adapt to climate variability and climate change. Agrometeorologists should also advise national policy makers on the urgent
need to cope with the vulnerabilities of agriculture and forestry to climate variability and climate change. The workshop
recommendations were largely limited to adaptation. Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate variability and climate change
is of high priority for nearly all countries, but developing countries are particularly vulnerable. Effective measures to
cope with vulnerability and adaptation need to be developed at all levels. Capacity building must be integrated into adaptation
measures for sustainable agricultural development strategies. Consequently, nations must develop strategies that effectively
focus on specific regional issues to promote sustainable development. 相似文献
6.
Gary Yohe 《Climatic change》2000,46(3):371-390
Three types of adaptation can influence significantly a system's prospective longevity in the face of climate change. The ability to cope with variation in its current environment can help a system adapt to changes over the longer term. The ability to take advantage of beneficial changes that might coincide with potentially harmful ones can play an even larger role; and focusing attention on maximizing a system's sustainable lifetime can highlight the potential for extending that time horizon and increasing the likelihood that an alternative structure might be created. A specific economic approach to adaptation demonstrates that research can serve two functions in this regard. Research can play an important role in diminishing future harm suggested by standard impact analyses by focusing attention on systems where adaptation can buy the most time. It can help societies learn how to become more robust under current conditions; and it can lead them to explore mechanisms by which they can exploit potentially beneficial change. Research can also play a critical role in assessing the need for mitigating long-term change by focusing attention on systems where potential adaptation in both the short and long runs is so limited that it is almost impossible to buy any time at all. In these areas, switching to an alternative system or investing in the protection of existing ones are the last lines of defense. Real "windows" of tolerable climate change can be defined only by working in areas where these sorts of adaptive alternatives cannot be uncovered. 相似文献
7.
Cynthia Rosenzweig Kenneth M. Strzepek David C. Major Ana Iglesias David N. Yates Alyssa McCluskey Daniel Hillel 《Global Environmental Change》2004,14(4):823
This integrated study examines the implications of changes in crop water demand and water availability for the reliability of irrigation, taking into account changes in competing municipal and industrial demands, and explores the effectiveness of adaptation options in maintaining reliability. It reports on methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural, and planning models to study water availability for agriculture under changing climate conditions, to estimate changes in ecosystem services, and to evaluate adaptation strategies for the water resources and agriculture sectors. The models are applied to major agricultural regions in Argentina, Brazil, China, Hungary, Romania, and the US, using projections of climate change, agricultural production, population, technology, and GDP growth.For most of the relatively water-rich areas studied, there appears to be sufficient water for agriculture given the climate change scenarios tested. Northeastern China suffers from the greatest lack of water availability for agriculture and ecosystem services both in the present and in the climate change projections. Projected runoff in the Danube Basin does not change substantially, although climate change causes shifts in environmental stresses within the region. Northern Argentina's occasional problems in water supply for agriculture under the current climate may be exacerbated and may require investments to relieve future tributary stress. In Southeastern Brazil, future water supply for agriculture appears to be plentiful. Water supply in most of the US Cornbelt is projected to increase in most climate change scenarios, but there is concern for tractability in the spring and water-logging in the summer.Adaptation tests imply that only the Brazil case study area can readily accommodate an expansion of irrigated land under climate change, while the other three areas would suffer decreases in system reliability if irrigation areas were to be expanded. Cultivars are available for agricultural adaptation to the projected changes, but their demand for water may be higher than currently adapted varieties. Thus, even in these relatively water-rich areas, changes in water demand due to climate change effects on agriculture and increased demand from urban growth will require timely improvements in crop cultivars, irrigation and drainage technology, and water management. 相似文献
8.
Improving the adaptive capacity of small-scale irrigation systems to the impacts of climate change is crucial for food security in Asia. This study analyzes the capacity of small-scale irrigation systems dependent on the Asian monsoon to adapt to variability in river discharge caused by climate change. Our study is motivated by the Pumpa irrigation system, a small-scale irrigation system located in Nepal that is a model for this type of system. We developed an agent-based model in which we simulated the decisions farmers make about the irrigation strategy to use according to available water flow. Given the uncertainty associated with how climate change may affect the Asian monsoon, we simulated the performance of the system under different projections of climate change in the region (increase and decrease in rainfall, reduction and expansion of the monsoon season, and changes in the timing of the onset of the monsoon). Accordingly to our simulations, farmers might need to adapt to rainfall intensification and a late onset in the monsoon season. The demands for collective action among farmers (e.g. infrastructure repair, meetings, decisions, etc.) might increase considerably due to climate change. Although our model suggests that investment in new infrastructure might increase the performance of the system under some climate change scenarios, the high inequality among farmers when water availability is reduced might hinder the efficiency of these measures due to a reduction of farmers’ willingness to cooperate. Our modeling exercise helps to hypothesize about the most sensitive climate change scenarios for smallscale irrigation farming in Nepal and helps to frame a discussion of some possible solutions and fundamental trade-offs in the process of adaptation to improve for food and water security under climate change. 相似文献
9.
Ian Burton 《Climatic change》1997,36(1-2):185-196
The paper explores the distinction between climate and climate change. Adaptation to current climate variability has been proposed as an additional way to approach adaptation to long-term climate change. In effect improved adaptation to current climate is a step in preparation for longer term climate change. International programs of research and assessment are separately organized to deal with natural disasters and climate change. There is no scientific concensus so far, that extreme events have changed in frequency on a world-wide basis, although some regional changes have occured. It is extremely unlikely that significant shifts in the means of weather distrbutions will take place without shifts in the tails. In some situations it may make more sense to focus on adaptation to extreme events and the tails of distributions. In other circumstances adaptation to the norms is the logical focus. The relationship between normal climate and climate change is examined in terms of single and complex variables and phenomena. It is proposed that the research communities studying adaptation to extreme events and adaptation to climate change work more closely together, perhaps in a newly organized joint research program. 相似文献
10.
The Western Australian wheat-belt has experienced more rainfall decline than any other wheat-cropping region in Australia. Future climate change scenarios suggest that the Western Australian wheat-belt is likely to see greater future reductions in rainfall than other regions, together with a further increase in temperatures. While these changes appear adverse for water-limited rain-fed agriculture, a close analysis of the changes and their impacts reveals a more complex story. Twentieth century changes in rainfall, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration have had little or no overall impact on wheat yields. Changes in agricultural technology and farming systems have had much larger impacts. Contrary to some claims, there is no scientific or economic justification for any immediate actions by farmers to adapt to long-term climate change in the Western Australian wheat-belt, beyond normal responses to short-term variations in weather. Rather than promoting current change, the most important policy response is research and development to enable farmers to facilitate future adaptation to climate change. Research priorities are proposed. 相似文献
11.
O. A. Anisimov E. L. Zhil&#;tsova K. O. Shapovalova A. A. Ershova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2020,45(1):13-21
Data on modern climate and environmental changes in the northwestern region of Russia are compared with the public perception of such changes. The analysis reveals that unusual weather patterns and single extreme events have a deeper impact on the public perception than long-term periods of climate change. The majority of population consider climate and environmental changes locally, do not associate them with global drivers, and are not prepared to adaptation. The numerical climate perception index is developed to characterize the awareness of population about the climate change and preparedness to adaptation. The index can be used for improving the awareness of policymakers for regional climate adaptation. 相似文献
12.
N.A. Marshall 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(1):36-43
Resource-dependent industries are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and their ability to adapt will be as critical to society as to the natural systems upon which they rely. More than ever, resource-users will need to anticipate, and prepare for, climate-related changes, and institutions will need to be particularly supportive, if resource industries and the extended social systems dependent on them are to be sustained. I examine the capacity of cattle-graziers in Australia to cope and adapt to climate variability as a precursor for understanding their vulnerability to climate change by assessing: (i) their perception of risk, (ii) their capacity to plan, learn and reorganise, (iii) their proximity to the thresholds of coping, and (iv) their level of interest in adapting to change. Graziers perceived themselves to be resilient to climate variability in their perceptions of climate risk, reorganising capacity, coping, and interest in adapting. Their dependency on the grazing resource and use of seasonal climate forecasts were significant influences, suggesting that resilience could be enhanced. Facilitated collaborative learning amongst graziers and other stakeholders may assist to develop strategic skills, increasing climate awareness, developing financial security and adopt climate tools such as seasonal climate forecasts. Enhanced strategies for coping with climate variability will provide a way for encouraging gradual, incremental adjustments for climate adaptation. 相似文献
13.
Victorian farmers have experienced significant impact from climate change associated with drought and more recently flooding. These factors form a convergence with a complex of other factors to change production systems physically; and farmers’ decision making is variously described as adaptive or maladaptive to these drivers of change. Recently updated State Government policies on farming, climate and water have immediate and long term implications for food production systems but are not readily interpreted at a local scale. Further, peak oil and energy security are only partially integrated into either climate or water policy discourse. In effect, despite some far-sighted words about the meaning of climate change, uncertainty is largely met with a ‘business as usual’ mantra. Farmer narratives are used to demonstrate their systemic and increasing vulnerability and likelihood of perverse outcomes. The Future Farming strategy and Our Water Our Future are briefly analyzed, as are potential implications of the rhetoric of newly elected conservative government. Using ideas from Bourdieu and Bhabha we suggest that the reliance on farmers being able to innovate and take up opportunities associated with the uncertainty of large scale changes in climate and energy availability are misguided. It is more likely that current policy directions entrench the values of the global market and its elite, leaving farmers locked-in to historical structural responses that will not be successful in the long-term and will diminish their ability to imagine radical and diverse ways of avoiding the maladaptive structures currently surrounding their production systems. 相似文献
14.
Donna Green Lisa Alexander Kathy Mclnnes John Church Neville Nicholls Neil White 《Climatic change》2010,102(3-4):405-433
Adaptive practices are taking place in a range of sectors and regions in Australia in response to existing climate impacts, and in anticipation of future unavoidable impacts. For a rich economy such as Australia’s, the majority of human systems have considerable adaptive capacity. However, the impacts on human systems at the intra-nation level are not homogenous due to their differing levels of exposure, sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change. Despite past resilience to changing climates, many Indigenous communities located in remote areas are currently identified as highly vulnerable to climate impacts due to their high level of exposure and sensitivity, but low capacity to adapt. In particular, communities located on low-lying islands have particular vulnerability to sea level rise and increasingly intense storm surges caused by more extreme weather. Several Torres Strait Island community leaders have been increasingly concerned about these issues, and the ongoing risks to these communities’ health and well-being posed by direct and indirect climate impacts. A government agency is beginning to develop short-term and long-term adaptation plans for the region. This work, however, is being developed without adequate scientific assessment of likely ‘climate changed futures.’ This is because the role that anthropogenic climate change has played, or will play, on extreme weather events for this region is not currently clear. This paper draws together regional climate data to enable a more accurate assessment of the islands’ exposure to climate impacts. Understanding the level of exposure and uncertainty around specific impacts is vital to gauge the nature of these islands’ vulnerability, in so doing, to inform decisions about how best to develop anticipatory adaptation strategies over various time horizons, and to address islanders’ concerns about the likely resilience and viability of their communities in the longer term. 相似文献
15.
The capacity of a nation to address the hydrological impacts of climate change depends on the institutions through which water is governed. Inter-institutional networks that enable institutions to adapt and the factors that hinder smooth coordination are poorly understood. Using water governance in India as an example of a complex top-down bureaucratic system that requires effective networks between all key institutions, this research unravels the barriers to adaptation by combining quantitative internet data mining and qualitative analysis of interviews with representatives from twenty-six key institutions operating at the national level.Institutions' online presence shows a disconnect in the institutional discourse between climate change and water with institutions such as the Ministries of Water Resources, Earth Sciences and Agriculture, indicating a lesser involvement compared to institutions such as the Ministries of Finance, External Affairs, Planning Commission. The online documents also indicate a more centralised inter-institutional network, emanating from or pointing to a few key institutions including the Planning Commission and Ministry of Environment and Forests. However, the interviews suggest more complex relational dynamics between institutions and also demonstrate a gap between the aspirational ideals of the National Water Mission under the National Action Plan on Climate Change and the realities of climate change adaptation. This arises from institutional barriers, including lengthy bureaucratic processes and systemic failures, that hinder effective inter-institutional networks to facilitate adaptation. The study provides new understanding of the involvement and barriers of complex multi-layered institutions in climate change adaptation. 相似文献
16.
Urban water systems need to serve increasing numbers of people under a changing climate. Studies of systems facing extreme events, such as drought, can clarify the nature of adaptive capacity and whether this might support incremental (marginal changes) or transformative adaptation (fundamental system shifts) to climate change. We conducted comparative case studies of three major metropolitan water systems in the United States to understand how actions taken in response to drought affected adaptive capacity and whether the adaptive capacity observed in these systems fosters the preconditions needed for transformative adaptation. We find that while there is ample evidence of existing and potential adaptive capacity, this can be either enabled or diminished by the specific actions taken and their cascading effects on other parts of the system. We also find social dimensions, such as public acceptance, learning, trust, and collaboration, to be as critical as physical elements of adaptive capacity in urban water systems. Finally, we suggest that changes in practices initiated during drought, combined with sustained engagement, collaboration, and education, can lead to substantial and long-lasting changes in values around water, a precursor to transformative adaptation. 相似文献
17.
Karl Harvey Schultz 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):187-197
Climate mitigation credits have mobilized considerable resources for projects in developing countries, but similar funding to adapt to climate change has yet to emerge. The Copenhagen Accord targets up to US$50 billion per year in adaptation funding, but commitments to date have been trivial compared to what is needed. Although there are some studies and suggestions, it remains unclear where the money will come from and how it will be disbursed. Beyond this, many development experts believe that the main hurdle in climate adaptation is effective implementation. A framework, based on the polluter pays principle, is presented here regarding the mobilization of resources for adaptation in developing countries using market mechanisms. It is assumed that mitigation and adaptation are at least partly fungible in terms of long-term global societal costs and benefits, and that quantifying climate vulnerability reductions is possible at least sometimes. The scheme's benefits include significant, equitable and flexible capital flows, and improved and more efficient resource allocation and verification procedures that incentivize sustained project management. Challenges include overcoming political resistance to historical responsibility-based obligations and scepticism of market instruments, and, critically, quantifying climate impact costs and verifying investments for vulnerability reduction credits. 相似文献
18.
Policy makers are still struggling to find a rational and effective way to handle adaptation to climate change. This paper discusses a more strategic, economic approach to public adaptation and compares it with adaptation practice in Europe. An economic approach to adaptation involves setting priorities, both spatially (where to adapt) and inter-temporally (when to adapt). The paper reviews what we know about Europe’s geographic adaptation priorities. On inter-temporal priorities, it recommends fast-tracking two types of action: Win-win measures that yield an immediate return, such as water efficiency, and strategic decisions on infrastructure and spatial planning that have long-term consequences for Europe’s vulnerability profile. An economic approach to adaptation involves careful project design to ensure adaptation measures are cost-effective and flexible in the light of climate uncertainty (how to adapt). The final element of an economic approach to adaptation is the division of labour between the state and private actors (who should adapt). The paper argues that the traditional functions of the state—the provision of public goods, creation of an enabling environment and protection of the vulnerable—also apply to adaptation. 相似文献
19.
As climate change intensifies, the need for large-scale transformations that reform vulnerable systems’ prevailing values and development pathways is increasingly recognized. However, there is limited understanding of the factors that underlie such changes. This study sheds light on these factors by examining the case of Israel – a largely arid to semi-arid country with highly scarce natural water resources and a historical rural-agricultural ideology. Adopting an historically-informed systems perspective, I analyze two transformations that diminished Israel’s vulnerability to recurring droughts: the 1960s’ economic transformation from agriculture to industry, and the shift to seawater desalination in the mid-2000s. These changes are examined using causal-loop diagrams based on multiple data sources, including archival records, statistical reports and a systematic review of grey and academic literature.The findings show that both transformations, instigated by state institutions during exceptionally severe droughts, were driven by shifts away from development paradigms embedded in the nation-building ideology, as well as by social stresses that exceeded the natural limits of the agricultural system and water supply system. Repeated drought shocks activated and later reactivated the shift to desalination, intended to a certain degree to reduce drought vulnerability. However, drought did not significantly affect the economic transformation, initiated mainly due to saturation in agricultural development. Thus, I argue that alongside concerted adaptation efforts state institutions should dedicate greater attention to the management of broader social challenges and crises in a manner that fosters greater resilience against future climate changes. Ideological shifts and consequent restructuring of development paths, as well as the interaction between population growth and limited natural resources, may constitute important entry points. These entry points are particularly pertinent to emerging economies in other dry areas, many of which face similar social and economic trends to those experienced in Israel over the last decades. 相似文献
20.
Climate models project large changes in rainfall, but disagree on their magnitude and sign. The consequences of this uncertainty on optimal dam dimensioning is assessed for a small mountainous catchment in Greece. Optimal dam design is estimated using a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) based on trends in seasonal temperature and precipitations from 19 IPCC-AR4 climate models driven by the the SRES A2 emission scenario. Optimal reservoir volumes are modified by climate change, leading to up to 34% differences between optimal volumes. Contrary to widely-used target-based approaches, the CBA suggests that reduced rainfall should lead to smaller water reservoirs. The resulting change in the Net Present Value (NPV) of water supply is also substantial, ranging from no change to a large 25% loss, depending on the climate model, even assuming optimal adaptation and perfect foresight. In addition, climate change uncertainty can lead to design errors, with a cost ranging from 0.3 to 2.8% of the NPV, depending on site characteristics. This paper proposes to complement the CBA with a robust decision-making approach that focuses on reducing design-error costs. It also suggests that climate change impacts in the water sector may reveal large, that water reservoirs do not always provide a cost-efficient adaptation strategy, and that alternative adaptation strategies based on water conservation and non-conventional water production need to be considered. 相似文献