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1.
Using the recorded earthquake strong ground motion, the attenuation of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) are derived in the southern Dead Sea Transform region. The expected values of strong motion parameters from future earthquakes are estimated from attenuation equations, which are determined by regression analysis on real accelerograms. In this study, the method of Joyner and Boor [Bull Seismol Soc Am 71(6):2011–2038, 1981] was selected to produce the attenuation model for the southern Dead Sea Transform region. The dataset for PGA consists of 57 recordings from 30 earthquakes and for PGV 26 recordings from 19 earthquakes. The attenuation relations developed in this study are proposed as replacement for former probabilistic relations that have been used for a variety of earthquake engineering applications. The comparison between the derived PGA relations from this study with the former relations clearly shows significant lower values than the other relations.  相似文献   

2.
Wu  Yih-Min  Hsiao  Nai-Chi  Teng  Ta-Liang 《Natural Hazards》2004,32(3):357-373
  相似文献   

3.
Airports are one of the critical infrastructures that play an essential role in managing natural disasters through receiving or sending aid and supplies. Air traffic control (ATC) towers are an inseparable part of each airport as the performance of airports depends on the functionality of their ATC towers. Many ATC towers have been designed and constructed based on older versions of modern seismic codes in which seismic design has followed a force-based design approach. This study addresses the seismic vulnerability of three in-service ATC towers which have been designed and constructed according to a force-based design concept. The height of the towers ranges from 24 to 52 m. Fragility curves have been used for the seismic vulnerability study of these towers. For the derivation of seismic fragility curves, 45 earthquake records were selected and classified into low, medium and high classes based on their ratio of peak ground acceleration (PGA) to peak ground velocity (PGV). It was observed that records with a low PGA/PGV ratio imposed the highest level of damage to the towers. However, when towers were subjected to the records with a high PGA/PGV ratio, the damage intensity was not significant. Results indicated that the intensity of seismic-induced damage to the tallest tower was significantly more than that of the shortest tower. It was concluded that only the shortest tower could satisfy the expected seismic performance objectives.  相似文献   

4.
The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard and/or economic constraints. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. We have produced a suite of seismic hazard estimates for Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America. One of the preliminary maps in this suite served as the basis for the Caribbean and Central and South America portion of the Global Seismic Hazard Map (GSHM) published in 1999, which depicted peak ground acceleration (pga) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. Herein we present maps depicting pga and 0.2 and 1.0 s spectral accelerations (SA) with 50%, 10%, and 2% chances of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. The seismicity catalog used in the generation of these maps adds 3 more years of data to those used to calculate the GSH Map. Different attenuation functions (consistent with those used to calculate the U.S. and Canadian maps) were used as well. These nine maps are designed to assist in global risk mitigation by providing a general seismic hazard framework and serving as a resource for any national or regional agency to help focus further detailed studies required for regional/local needs. The largest seismic hazard values in Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. High hazard values occur in areas where shallow-to-intermediate seismicity occurs frequently.  相似文献   

5.
Multiple approaches are used to study the potential seismic hazard in the North China Craton (NCC, or North China Plain), where approximately 15 % of the Chinese population resides and under which active faults are located. In this study, we develop a new modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) attenuation relationship for the NCC using intensity data from 10 instrumentally recorded events. We then utilize this relationship to infer the magnitude and epicentral location of historic events based on the method proposed by Bakun and Wentworth (Bull Seismol Soc Am 87(6):1502–1521, 1997). In addition, a modified stochastic finite fault model is employed to simulate the strong ground motions caused by these historic events. The simulated peak ground accelerations and velocities are then converted into regional MMI distributions through empirical relationships, and these synthetic MMI maps are compared to field observations. The resultant MMI attenuation versus distance models of the 1976 M w 7.6 Tangshan event and the 1679 M 8.0 Sanhe-Pinggu event are consistent with the empirical attenuation relationships, and the location and size of the meizoseismal area (>VIII) are consistent with observations. The successful modeling of these historic events indicates that a stochastic finite fault model constrained by the regional MMI attenuation relationship can be used to evaluate a wide range of scenarios based on modern computational simulations. These findings may also provide useful information for the estimation and mitigation of potential seismic hazards in this region.  相似文献   

6.
This study presents new attenuation models for the estimation of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and peak ground displacement (PGD) using a hybrid method coupling genetic programming and simulated annealing, called GP/SA. The PGA, PGV, and PGD were formulated in terms of earthquake magnitude, earthquake source to site distance, average shear-wave velocity, and faulting mechanisms. A worldwide database of strong ground motions released by Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) was employed to establish the models. A traditional genetic programming analysis was performed to benchmark the proposed models. For more validity verification, the GP/SA models were employed to predict the ground-motion parameters of the Iranian plateau earthquakes. Sensitivity and parametric analyses were carried out and discussed. The results show that the GP/SA attenuation models can offer precise and efficient solutions for the prediction of estimates of the peak time-domain characteristics of strong ground motions. The performance of the proposed models is better than or comparable with the attenuation relationships found in the literature.  相似文献   

7.
Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate 4 and the upper bound magnitudem 1 are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.  相似文献   

8.
We present a method for estimating the seismic intensity in terms of MMI or MSK scale using Fourier amplitude spectra of ground acceleration. The method implies that severity of earthquake ground motion is determined by spectral amplitudes in relatively narrow frequency band: so-called “representative frequencies”, at decreasing frequencies (from 7–8 Hz for small intensities to 0.7 – 1.0 Hz for MMI(MSK) = VIII–IX) with increasing intensity level. It is examined through estimation of probable intensity at a site using recordings of recent earthquakes in several seismic regions and prediction of intensity distribution patterns for some earthquakes. Seismic hazard maps, in terms of intensity levels based upon the proposed approach, should describe regional features of seismic waves excitation and propagation, as well as local ground conditions.  相似文献   

9.
In recent years, Iraq has experienced an increase in seismic activity, especially, near the east boundary with Iran. Previous studies present their results in terms of PGA and for return periods of 500 years and less, and other studies not continued to include the whole PSHA process whereas some recent studies continued to include the whole PSHA process using earthquakes data till 2009 including dependent events. This study includes two main stages, the first is collecting the earthquakes records including the recent events till the end of March 2016 and applying data processing to get the net catalog to independent events. The second stage is applying the steps of PSHA method. Matlab programs have been built to execute these two stages and to convert the results of PSHA computations into contours of 5% damping PGA and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1.0 s for a return period of 2475 years, and for rock sites. Also, spectral acceleration against period has been presented for main cities. Also, the PGA map, for a return period of 475 years, has been plotted and then prepared together with similar maps of neighbor countries in one map for comparison. In general, this comparison indicates the similarity in behavior but, the values reveal a relative agreement and they are between Turkish and Iranian values.  相似文献   

10.
The SIRENE macroseismic database has been utilized to draw isoseismal maps for the 140 best-documented French earthquakes, characterized by epicentral intensities of at least V (MSK) and located in all parts of the country. A study of focal depths derived from available local intensity data using an intensity versus distance decay law (Sponheuer) shows that the focal depths of most of the events considered do not exceed about 10 km. Their distribution correlates fairly well with regional dynamic geology features. A relationship is then computed between magnitude, intensity and focal distance, based on 73 instrumenta]ly recorded earthquakes (M L between 3.3 and 6.3) and on 217 mean radius values (from 2 to 380 km) for isoseismals of intensity VIII to III (MSK). This relationship is applied to historical earthquakes contained in the database SIRENE which are characterised by their intensity only. These results are used in the evaluation as well deterministic as probabilistic of the seismic hazard on the national territory.  相似文献   

11.
The first attenuation relationships of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) for northern Vietnam are obtained in this study. Ground motion data are collected by a portable broadband seismic network in northern Vietnam as a part of cooperation between the Institute of Geophysics, Vietnamese Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam and Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taiwan. The database comprises a total of 330 amplitude records by 14 broadband stations from 53 shallow earthquakes, which were occurred in and around northern Vietnam in the period between 01/2006 and 12/2009. These earthquakes are of local magnitudes between 1.6 and 4.6, focal depths less than 30 km, and epicentral distances less than 500 km. The new attenuation relationships for PGA and PGV are:
log10(PGA)=-0.987+0.7521ML-log10(R)-0.00475R,  相似文献   

12.
The isoseismal map for the earthquake that occurred in the Jordan Valley on 11 July 1927 was analyzed and used to develop Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Attenuation relation for Jordan needed for use in relevant seismic hazard evaluation procedures. Strong motion data of earthquakes that occurred in Jordan and Israel during the last 15 years were summarized. A comparison is made between recorded PGA's and those calculated using the derived Attenuation relations commonly used by experts in the region. The comparison showed that the derived relation is appropriate for estimating PGA values on alluvium foundations. The derived relation gave results close to those obtained using a relation introduced by Esteva in 1974. The 1982 relation of Ben-Menahem and co-workers gave reasonable predictions of PGA values for most geological formations of foundations, in general.  相似文献   

13.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the archaeological site of Vijayapura in south India in order to obtain hazard consistent seismic input ground-motions for seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, where warranted. For this purpose the standard Cornell-McGuire approach, based on seismogenic zones with uniformly distributed seismicity is employed. The main features of this study are the usage of an updated and unified seismic catalogue based on moment magnitude, new seismogenic source models and recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in logic tree framework. Seismic hazard at the site is evaluated for level and rock site condition with 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and the corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGAs) are 0.074 and 0.142 g, respectively. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the site are compared to the Indian code-defined spectrum. Comparisons are also made with results from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA 2010), in terms of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.25 s for 475- and 2475-yr return periods. Results of the present study are in good agreement with the PGA calculated from isoseismal map of the Killari earthquake, \({\hbox {M}}_{\mathrm{w}} = 6.4\) (1993). Disaggregation of PSHA results for the PGA and spectral acceleration (\({\hbox {S}}_{\mathrm{a}}\)) at 0.5 s, displays the controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to moderate magnitude with the source being at a short distance from the study site. Deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) is also carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. The UHS corresponding to 475-yr return period (RP) is used to define the target spectrum and accordingly, the spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms are selected from the suite of recorded accelerograms.  相似文献   

14.
The development of the new seismic hazard map of metropolitan Tehran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the non-Poisson recurrence time model. For this model, two maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of the region in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines. They display the non-Poisson probabilistic estimates of peak ground accelerations over bedrock for 10 and 63 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. To carry out the non-Poisson seismic hazard analysis, appropriate distributions of interoccurrence times of earthquakes were used for the seismotectonic provinces which the study region is located and then the renewal process was applied. In order to calculate the seismic hazard for different return periods in the probabilistic procedure, the study area encompassed by the 49.5–54.5°E longitudes and 34–37°N latitudes was divided into 0.1° intervals generating 1,350 grid points. PGA values for this region are estimated to be 0.30–0.32 and 0.16–0.17 g for 10 and 63 % probability of exceedance, respectively, in 50 years for bedrock condition.  相似文献   

15.
In this study, stochastic finite fault modeling is used to simulate Uttarkashi (1991) and Chamoli (1999) earthquakes using all available source, path, and site parameters available for the region. These two moderate earthquakes are recorded at number of stations of a strong motion network. The predicted peak ground accelerations at these stations are compared with the observed data and the ground motion parameters are constrained. The stress drop of Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes is constrained at 77 and 65?bars, respectively, whereas the quality factor Q C is 112 $ f^{0.97} $ and 149 $ f^{0.95} $ for these two regions. The high-frequency attenuation parameter Kappa is in the range 0.04?C0.05. The constrained ground motion parameters are then used to simulate Mw 8.5 earthquake in central seismic gap region of Himalaya. Two scenarios are considered with epicenter of future great earthquake at locations of Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes using above constrained parameters. The most vulnerable towns are the towns of Dehradun and Almora where expected PGA is in excess of 600?cm/s2 at VS30 520?m/s when the epicenter of the great earthquake is at the location of Uttarkashi (1991) earthquake. The towns of Shimla and Chandigarh can expect PGA close to 200?cm/s2. Whereas when the epicenter of the great earthquake is at the location of Chamoli (1999) earthquake, the towns of Dehradun and Almora can expect PGA of around 500 and 400?cm/s2, respectively, at VS30 620?m/s. The National Capital Region, Delhi can expect accelerations of around 80?cm/s2 in both the cases. The PGA contour maps obtained in this study can be used to assess the seismic hazard of the region and identify vulnerable areas in and around central Himalaya from a future great earthquake.  相似文献   

16.
A first generation of probabilistic seismic hazard maps of the Italian country are presented. They are based on seismogenic zoning deriving from a kinematic model of the structural tectonic units and on an earthquake catalogue with the foreshock and aftershock events filtered out. The following ground motion parameters have been investigated and mapped using attenuation equations based on strong-motion recordings of Italian earthquakes: peak ground acceleration and velocity; Arias intensity; strong motion duration; and the pseudovelocity and pseudoacceleration spectral values at 14 fixed frequencies both for the vertical and the largest horizontal component. A Poissonian model of earthquake occurrence is assumed as a default and the hazard maps are presented in terms of ground motion values expected to be exceeded at a 10% probability level in 50 years (return period 475 years) according to the requirement of Eurocode 8 for the seismic classification of national territories, as well as in terms of exceedance probabilities of selected ground motion values. Finally, as a tentative study, the use of hybrid methods (implementing both seismogenic zones and structures), renewal processes (including earthquake forecasting) and the influence of site effects (as the basis for the planning of earthquake scenarios) were explored.  相似文献   

17.
Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the sultanate of Oman   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
This study presents the results of the first probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the framework of logic tree for Oman. The earthquake catalogue was homogenized, declustered, and used to define seismotectonic source model that characterizes the seismicity of Oman. Two seismic source models were used in the current study; the first consists of 26 seismic source zones, while the second is expressing the alternative view that seismicity is uniform along the entire Makran and Zagros zones. The recurrence parameters for all the seismogenic zones were determined using the doubly bounded exponential distribution except the zones of Makran, which were modelled using the characteristic distribution. Maximum earthquakes were determined and the horizontal ground accelerations in terms of geometric mean were calculated using ground-motion prediction relationships developed based upon seismic data obtained from active tectonic environments similar to those surrounding Oman. The alternative seismotectonic source models, maximum magnitude, and ground-motion prediction relationships were weighted and used to account for the epistemic uncertainty. Hazard maps at rock sites were produced for 5?% damped spectral acceleration (SA) values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0 and 2.0?s spectral periods as well as peak ground acceleration (PGA) for return periods of 475 and 2,475?years. The highest hazard is found in Khasab City with maximum SA at 0.2?s spectral period reaching 243 and 397?cm/s2 for return periods 475 and 2,475 years, respectively. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the choice of seismic source model and the ground-motion prediction equation influences the results most.  相似文献   

18.
This study includes the results of a set of numerical simulations carried out for sands containing plastic/non-plastic fines, and silts with relative densities of approximately 30?40% under different surcharges on the shallow foundation using FLAC 2D. Each model was subjected to three ground motion events, obtained by scaling the amplitude of the El Centro (1940), Kobe (1995) and Kocaeli (1999) Q12earthquakes. Dynamic behaviour of loose deposits underlying shallow foundations is evaluated through fully coupled nonlinear effective stress dynamic analyses. Effects of nonlinear soil structure interaction (SSI) were also considered by using interface elements. This parametric study evaluates the effects of soil type, structure weight, liquefiable soil layer thickness, event parameters (e.g., moment magnitude of earthquake (M w ), peak ground acceleration PGA, PGV/PGA ratio and the duration of strong motion (D 5?95) and their interactions on the seismic responses. Investigation on the effects of these parameters and their complex interactions can be a valuable tool to gain new insights for improved seismic design and construction.  相似文献   

19.
The maximum expected ground motion in Greece is estimated for shallow earthquakes using a deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA). In order to accomplish this analysis the input data include an homogeneous catalogue of earthquakes for the period 426 BC–2003, a seismogenic source model with representative focal mechanisms and a set of velocity models. Because of the discrete character of the earthquake catalogue and of errors in location of single seismic events, a smoothing algorithm is applied to the catalogue of the main shocks to get a spatially smoothed distribution of magnitude. Based on the selected input parameters synthetic seismograms for an upper frequency content of 1 Hz are computed on a grid of 0.2° × 0.2°. The resultant horizontal components for displacement, velocity, acceleration and DGA (Design Ground Acceleration) are mapped. The maps which depict these results cannot be compared with previously published maps based on probabilistic methodologies as the latter were compiled for a mean return period of 476 years. Therefore, in order to validate our deterministic analysis, the final results are compared with PGA estimated from the maximum observed macroseismic intensity in Greece during the period 426 BC–2003.Since the results are obtained for point sources, with the frequency content scaled with moment magnitude, some sensitivity tests are performed to assess the influence of the finite extent of fault related to large events. Sensitivity tests are also performed to investigate the changes in the peak ground motion quantities when varying the crustal velocity models in some seismogenic areas. The ratios and the relative differences between the results obtained using different models are mapped and their mean value computed. The results highlight the importance in the deterministic approach of using good and reliable velocity models.  相似文献   

20.
Rigorous and objective testing of seismic hazard assessments against the real seismic activity must become the necessary precondition for any responsible seismic risk estimation. Because seismic hazard maps seek to predict the shaking that would actually occur, the reference hazard maps for the Italian seismic code, obtained by probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), and the alternative ground shaking maps based on the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA), are cross-compared and tested against the real seismicity for the territory of Italy. The comparison between predicted intensities and those reported for past earthquakes shows that models generally provide rather conservative estimates, except for PGA with 10 % probability of being exceeded in 50 years, which underestimates the largest earthquakes. In terms of efficiency in predicting ground shaking, measured accounting for the rate of underestimated events and for the territorial extent of areas characterized by high seismic hazard, the NDSHA maps appear to outscore the PSHA ones.  相似文献   

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