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1.
Recent flood events in Switzerland and Western Austria in 2005 were characterised by an increase in impacts and associated
losses due to the transport of woody material. As a consequence, protection measures and bridges suffered considerable damages.
Furthermore, cross-sectional obstructions due to woody material entrapment caused unexpected flood plain inundations resulting
in severe damage to elements at risk. Until now, the transport of woody material is neither sufficiently taken into account
nor systematically considered, leading to prediction inaccuracies during the procedure of hazard mapping. To close this gap,
we propose a modelling approach that (1) allows the estimation of woody material recruitment from wood-covered banks and flood
plains; (2) allows the evaluation of the disposition for woody material entrainment and transport to selected critical configurations
along the stream and that (3) enables the delineation of hazard process patterns at these critical configurations. Results
from a case study suggest the general applicability of the concept. This contribution to woody material transport analysis
refines flood hazard assessments due to the consideration of woody material transport scenarios. 相似文献
2.
In the context of natural hazard-related risk analyses, different concepts and comprehensions of the term risk exist. These differences are mostly subjected to the perceptions and historical backgrounds of the different scientific disciplines and results in a multitude of methodological concepts to analyse risk. The target-oriented selection and application of these concepts depend on the specific research object which is generally closely connected to the stakeholders’ interests. An obvious characteristic of the different conceptualizations is the immanent various comprehensions of vulnerability. As risk analyses from a natural scientific-technical background aim at estimating potential expositions and consequences of natural hazard events, the results can provide an appropriate decision basis for risk management strategies. Thereby, beside the preferably addressed gravitative and hydrological hazards, seismo-tectonical and especially meteorological hazard processes have been rarely considered within multi-risk analyses in an Alpine context. Hence, their comparative grading in an overall context of natural hazard risks is not quantitatively possible. The present paper focuses on both (1) the different concepts of the natural hazard risk and especially their specific expressions in the context of vulnerability and (2) the exemplary application of the natural scientific-technical risk concepts to analyse potential extreme storm losses in the Austrian Province of Tyrol. Following the corresponding general risk concept, the case study first defines the hazard potential, second estimates the exposures and damage potentials on the basis of an existing database of the stock of elements and values, and third analyses the so-called Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) considering the structural vulnerability of the potentially affected elements at risk. Thereby, it can be shown that extreme storm events can induce losses solely to buildings and inventory in the range of EUR 100–150 million in Tyrol. However, in an overall context of potential extreme natural hazard events, the storm risk can be classified with a moderate risk potential in this province. 相似文献
3.
Understanding the nature and impacts of tsunamis within the Aegean Sea region ofGreece is of importance to both the academic community and those organisationsconcerned with tsunami disaster management. In order to determine hazard and riskand consequently pre-plan mitigative strategies, it is necessary to analyse historical(documentary) and geological records of former tsunami events. Therefore, firstlythis paper provides a summary of the written sources of information on Aegeantsunamis paying particular attention to published catalogues. From the availabledata, it is noted that a large number of events have been reported during the last3500 years. Secondly, the paper provides a review of the published on-shore(terrestrial) geological records of tsunamis within the region. From this analysisit is seen that little geological evidence has been identified for the large numberof tsunamis reported in the catalogues. Thirdly, the paper considers the reliabilityof the written and geological records and how problems of accuracy, coverage,extent and reliability, may have potential implications for the estimation of hazardand risk. The paper concludes by making recommendations for disaster managers,geologists and historians to work closely together. 相似文献
4.
Assessments of natural hazards and risks are beneficial for sustainable planning and natural hazard risk management. On a regional scale, quantitative hazard and risk assessments are data intensive and methods developed are difficult to transfer to other regions and to analyse different periods in a given region. Such transfers could be beneficial regarding factors of global change influencing the patterns of natural hazard and risk. The aim of this study was to show the landslide exposure of different elements at risk in one map, e.g. residential buildings and critical infrastructure, as a solid basis for an in-depth analysis of vulnerability and consequent risk. This enables to overcome the data intensive assessments on a regional scale and highlights the potential hotspots for risk analysis. The study area is located in the alpine foreland in Lower Austria and comprises around 112 km2. The results show the different levels of exposure, as well as how many layers of elements at risk are affected. Several exposure hotspots can be delineated throughout the study area. This allows a decision on in-depth analysis of hotspots not only by indicated locations but also by a rank resulting from the different layers of incorporated elements at risk. 相似文献
5.
Pradeep Adhikari Yang Hong Kimberly R. Douglas Dalia Bach Kirschbaum Jonathan Gourley Robert Adler G. Robert Brakenridge 《Natural Hazards》2010,55(2):405-422
Floods have profound impacts on populations worldwide in terms of both loss of life and property. A global inventory of floods
is an important tool for quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of floods and for evaluating global flood prediction
models. Several global hazard inventories currently exist; however, their utility for spatiotemporal analysis of global floods
is limited. The existing flood catalogs either fail to record the geospatial area over which the flood impacted or restrict
the types of flood events included in the database according to a set of criteria, limiting the scope of the inventory. To
improve upon existing databases, and make it more comprehensive, we have compiled a digitized Global Flood Inventory (GFI)
for the period 1998–2008 which also geo-references each flood event by latitude and longitude. This technical report presents
the methodology used to compile the GFI and preliminary findings on the spatial and temporal distributions of the flooding
events that are contained in the inventory. 相似文献
6.
Finn Løvholt Sylfest Glimsdal Carl B. Harbitz Natalia Zamora Farrokh Nadim Pascal Peduzzi Hy Dao Helge Smebye 《Earth》2012,110(1-4):58-73
In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a large increase in the activity of tsunami hazard and risk mapping is observed. Most of these are site-specific studies with detailed modelling of the run-up locally. However, fewer studies exist on the regional and global scale. Therefore, tsunamis have been omitted in previous global studies comparing different natural hazards. Here, we present a first global tsunami hazard and population exposure study. A key topic is the development of a simple and robust method for obtaining reasonable estimates of the maximum water level during tsunami inundation. This method is mainly based on plane wave linear hydrostatic transect simulations, and validation against results from a standard run-up model is given. The global hazard study is scenario based, focusing on tsunamis caused by megathrust earthquakes only, as the largest events will often contribute more to the risk than the smaller events. Tsunamis caused by non-seismic sources are omitted. Hazard maps are implemented by conducting a number of tsunami scenario simulations supplemented with findings from literature. The maps are further used to quantify the number of people exposed to tsunamis using the Landscan population data set. Because of the large geographical extents, quantifying the tsunami hazard assessment is focusing on overall trends. 相似文献
7.
Bhuiyan Tariqur Rahman Er Ah Choy Muhamad Nurfashareena Pereira Joy Jacqueline 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(2):1509-1538
Small-scale flash flood events are climate-related disasters which can put multiple aspects of the system at risk. The consequences of flash floods in densely populated cities are increasingly becoming problematic around the globe. However, they are largely ignored in disaster impact assessment studies, especially in assessing socioeconomic loss and damage, which can provide a significant insight for disaster risk reduction measures. Using a structured questionnaire survey, this study applied a statistical approach and developed a structural equation model (SEM) for assessing several socioeconomic dimensions including physical impacts, mobility disruption, lifeline facilities, health and income-related impacts. The study reveals that respondents have experienced a stronger impact on direct tangible elements such as household contents and buildings as well as direct intangible elements with β coefficients 0.703, 0.576 and 0.635, respectively, at p?<?0:001 level. The direct intangible impacts affect mobility disruption with β coefficients equal to 0.701 at p?<?0:001 level which then further cause adversity to income-generating activities with β 0.316 at significant p?<?0:001 as well. The overall model fit indices show highly acceptable scores of SRMR 0.068, RMSEA 0.055 and PClose 0.092. Thus, the SEM has successfully incorporated the socioeconomic dimensions of disaster impact and explained the impact phenomena reliably. This modeling approach will allow inclusion of various variables from different disciplines to assess hazard impact, vulnerability and resilience.
相似文献8.
The city-island-state of Malta is traditionally viewed as a low-hazard country with the lack of a long historical catalogue of extreme events and their impacts acting as an obstacle to formulating evidence-based policies of disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we present the first multi-hazard historical catalogue for Malta which extends from the Miocene to 2019 CE. Drawing on over 3500 documents and points of reference, including historical documentary data, official records and social media posts, we identify at least 1550 hazard events which collectively have caused the loss of at least 662 lives. Recognising that historical materials relating to Malta are complicated by the presence of a strong temporal bias, we establish a four-point reliability indicator and apply this to each of the 1065 recordings, with the result that some 79% show a high degree of reliability. For an island state where there are significant gaps in the knowledge and understanding of the environmental extremes and their impacts over time, this paper addresses and fills these gaps in order to inform the development of public-facing and evidence-based policies of disaster risk reduction in Malta.
相似文献9.
Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management 总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1
Sven Fuchs Margreth Keiler Sergey Sokratov Alexander Shnyparkov 《Natural Hazards》2013,68(3):1217-1241
Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness. 相似文献
10.
Consequence analysis is, together with hazard evaluation, one of the major steps of landslide risk assessment. However, a significant discrepancy exists between the number of published landslide hazard and landslide consequence studies. While various methodologies for regional-scale hazard assessment have been developed during the last decade, studies for estimating and visualising possible landslide consequences are still limited, and those existing are often difficult to apply in practice mainly because of the lack of data on the historical damage or on landslide damage functions. In this paper, an indicator-based GIS-aided methodology is proposed with an application to regional-scale consequence analysis. The index, called Potential Damage Index, allows describing, quantifying, valuing, totalizing and visualising different types of consequences. The method allows estimating the possible damage caused by landslides by combining weighted indicators reflecting the exposure of the elements at risk. Direct (physical injury, and structural and functional damage) and indirect (socio-economic impacts) consequences are individually analysed and subsequently combined to obtain a map of total consequences due to landsliding. Geographic visualisation of the index allows the delineation of the areas exposed to any type of possible impacts that could be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability of occurrence. The method has been successfully applied to analyse the present consequences in the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps). These maps contribute to development of adequate land use and evacuation plans, and thus are important tools for local authorities and insurance companies. 相似文献
11.
Although geophysical hazards like earthquakes can lead to tremendous losses, they are often neglected or not considered in risk analyses within an Alpine context. However, lately and especially in the framework of multi-risk analyses, earthquake risk studies are being increasingly implemented within an Alpine relation too. The presented study was conducted to quantitatively estimate potential consequences of earthquake events in the Austrian Province of Tyrol. The methodological study framework integrates the general risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. They are considered on a regional scale, accepting pragmatic approaches with simplified procedures and assumptions. Scenarios for different potential epicentres were calculated based on two different macroseismic hazard maps derived from punctual ground motion values of the building code and microzonation studies. The maps take into account the design event definitions of existing building code and a, thereupon based, simple and mono-causal Maximum Credible Earthquake assumption. Corresponding elements at risk and damage potentials were identified and potential losses were estimated under consideration of different vulnerability approaches. It can be shown that most scenarios based on the design event definition of the Austrian and European building codes, respectively have the potential of building and inventory losses solely of some hundred million up to approximately €4 billion. Additional, building and inventory losses of maximum credible events can lead to losses of more than €7 billion merely in connection with the primary earthquake event neglecting all other cascading effects. 相似文献
12.
Landslide risk assessment is often a difficult task due to the lack of temporal data on landslides and triggering events (frequency), run-out distance, landslide magnitude and vulnerability. The probability of occurrence of landslides is often very difficult to predict, as well as the expected magnitude of events, due to the limited data availability on past landslide activity. In this paper, a qualitative procedure for assessing the exposure of elements at risk is presented for an area of the Apulia region (Italy) where no temporal information on landslide occurrence is available. Given these limitations in data availability, it was not possible to produce a reliable landslide hazard map and, consequently, a risk map. The qualitative analysis was carried out using the spatial multi-criteria evaluation method in a global information system. A landslide susceptibility composite index map and four asset index maps (physical, social, economic and environmental) were generated separately through a hierarchical procedure of standardising and weighting. The four asset index maps were combined in order to obtain a qualitative weighted assets map, which, combined with the landslide susceptibility composite index map, has provided the final qualitative landslide exposure map. The resulting map represents the spatial distribution of the exposure level in the study area; this information could be used in a preliminary stage of regional planning. In order to demonstrate how such an exposure map could be used in a basic risk assessment, a quantification of the economic losses at municipal level was carried out, and the temporal probability of landslides was estimated, on the basis of the expert knowledge. Although the proposed methodology for the exposure assessment did not consider the landslide run-out and vulnerability quantification, the results obtained allow to rank the municipalities in terms of increasing exposure and risk level and, consequently, to identify the priorities for designing appropriate landslide risk mitigation plans. 相似文献
13.
海洋地质灾害对沿海城市人口和海洋经济发展构成重大威胁。海岸港口航道、海底管线光缆、海洋平台基础等工程建设规模的扩大,意味着海洋地质灾害风险进一步提高。海底火山爆发、海啸等大规模但不常见的灾害事件吸引了大多数公众关注和媒体报道,并促使政策调整以防范化解灾害风险。然而,海底气体喷溢、海底滑坡等小规模但更频繁的原生灾害事件,会产生严重的局部影响,并且极易转变为灾害链导致灾害事件恶化,但社会公众在很大程度上没有足够重视此类灾害风险。迄今为止,大多数海洋地质灾害的特征都可以被探测识别,但依靠现有的技术却很难有效监测。海洋地质灾害的原位监测需要更加严苛的技术能力,特别是突发性海洋地质灾害的原位监测难度较大。综述首先介绍了海洋地质灾害原位监测的意义以及技术发展的挑战,然后对海洋地质灾害的监测要素进行总结探讨,重点阐述海洋地质灾害监测技术装备的应用情况,并对海洋地质灾害的风险评估和灾害预警进行分析探讨,最后对海洋地质灾害原位监测技术及其应用作了总结和展望。综述旨在分析总结海洋地质灾害类型的监测技术装备及其应用中涉及的一些核心技术和急需解决的关键问题,以期为该项技术发展和应用提供借鉴。 相似文献
14.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(5):401-405
Economic and social development throughout the world is frequently interrupted by extreme events. The Pacific Rim is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters, thus to social and economic losses. Although disaster events impact both developed and developing countries, in the latter, they can cause a sharp increase in poverty. As disasters pose an important challenge to the development of the Pacific Rim, it is important to assess their global, regional, economic, and social impacts. Most economic assessments of the impacts of disasters have concentrated on direct losses—that is, the financial cost of physical damage. Equally important are indirect and secondary impacts of disasters, including the destruction of communities and their negative impacts on families. The challenges posed by potential disasters in the Pacific Rim countries require rapid action, and also an energetic risk-management strategy. To help reduce those negative impacts, countries need an overall evaluation of their risks, including: (i) risk identification, (ii) risk reduction, and (iii) risk transfer. It is expected that concerted action on risk management will help create an increased awareness of the economy—wide significance of natural disasters and the problems they pose for long—term development. Accordingly, this growing awareness will lead to an increased resilience in the countries of the Pacific Rim. 相似文献
15.
Global landslide and avalanche hotspots 总被引：6，自引：7，他引：6
Farrokh Nadim Oddvar Kjekstad Pascal Peduzzi Christian Herold Christian Jaedicke 《Landslides》2006,3(2):159-173
Allocating resources for natural hazard risk management has high priority in development banks and international agencies working in developing countries. Global hazard and risk maps for landslides and avalanches were developed to identify the most exposed countries. Based on the global datasets of climate, lithology, earthquake activity, and topography, areas with the highest hazard, or “hotspots”, were identified. The applied model was based on classed values of all input data. The model output is a landslide and avalanche hazard index, which is globally scaled into nine levels. The model results were calibrated and validated in selected areas where good data on slide events exist. The results from the landslide and avalanche hazard model together with global population data were then used as input for the risk assessment. Regions with the highest risk can be found in Colombia, Tajikistan, India, and Nepal where the estimated number of people killed per year per 100 km2 was found to be greater than one. The model made a reasonable prediction of the landslide hazard in 240 of 249 countries. More and better input data could improve the model further. Future work will focus on selected areas to study the applicability of the model on national and regional scales. 相似文献
16.
Burton Christopher G. Toquica Miguel Asad Khan Mortuza Bin Musori Michael 《Natural Hazards》2022,111(2):1301-1334
While many approaches for assessing earthquake risk exist within the literature and practice, it is the dynamic interrelationships between earthquake hazard, physical risk, and the social conditions of populations that are the focal point for disaster risk reduction. Here, the measurement of vulnerability to earthquakes (i.e., characteristics that create the potential for harm or loss) has become a major focus area. However, metrics aimed at measuring vulnerability to earthquakes suffer from several key limitations. For instance, hazard and community context are often ignored, and attempts to validate metrics are largely non-existent. The purpose of this paper is to produce composite indices of the vulnerability of countries to earthquakes within three topical areas: social vulnerability, economic vulnerability, and recovery potential. To improve upon the status quo in indicators development for measuring vulnerability to seismic events, our starting point was to: (1) define a set of indicators that are context specific to earthquakes as defined by the literature; (2) delineate indicators within categorical areas of vulnerability that are easy to understand and could be put into practical use by DRR practitioners; and (3) propose indicators that are validated using historical earthquake impacts. When mapped, the geographic variations in the differential susceptibility of populations and economies to the adverse effects of damaging earthquake impacts become evident, as does differential ability of countries to recover from them. Drivers of this geographic variation include average country debt, the type and density of infrastructure, poverty, governance, and educational attainment, to name just a few.
相似文献17.
Spatial scan statistics in vulnerability assessment: an application to mountain hazards 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
In the European Alps, the concept of risk has increasingly been applied in order to reduce the susceptibility of society to mountain hazards. Risk is defined as a function of the magnitude and frequency of a hazard process times consequences; the latter being quantified by the value of elements at risk exposed and their vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined by the degree of loss to a given element at risk resulting from the impact of a natural hazard. Recent empirical studies suggested a dependency of the degree of loss on the hazard impact, and respective vulnerability (or damage-loss) functions were developed. However, until now, only little information is available on the spatial characteristics of vulnerability on a local scale; considerable ranges in the loss ratio for medium process intensities only provide a hint that there might be mutual reasons for lower or higher loss rates. In this paper, we therefore focus on the spatial dimension of vulnerability by searching for spatial clusters in the damage ratio of elements at risk exposed. By using the software SaTScan, we applied an ordinal data model and a normal data model in order to detect spatial distribution patterns of five individual torrent events in Austria. For both models, we detected some significant clusters of high damage ratios, and consequently high vulnerability. Moreover, secondary clusters of high and low values were found. Based on our results, the assumption that lower process intensities result in lower damage ratios, and therefore in lower vulnerability, and vice versa, has to be partly rejected. The spatial distribution of vulnerability is not only dependent on the process intensities but also on the overall land use pattern and the individual constructive characteristics of the buildings exposed. Generally, we suggest the use of a normal data model for test sites exceeding a minimum of 30 elements at risk exposed. As such, the study enhanced our understanding of spatial vulnerability patterns on a local scale. 相似文献
18.
Geoff Main John Schembri Ritienne Gauci Kevin Crawford David Chester Angus Duncan 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(2):829-855
International comparisons of disaster risk frequently classify Malta as being one of the least hazard exposed countries. Such rankings may be criticised because: (1) they fail to take into account historic increases in population and its seasonal variation; (2) they are based on inadequately researched and incomplete historical catalogues of damaging events; and (3), for small island states like Malta, they do not take into account the implications of restricted land area, which can be disproportionately impacted by even small hazardous events. In this paper, we draw upon a variety of data to discuss disaster risk in the Maltese Islands. In particular, the notion that Malta is one of the ‘safest places on earth’ is not only misleading, but also potentially dangerous because it engenders a false sense of security amongst the population. We argue that Malta is exposed to a variety of extreme events, which include: the distal effects of major earthquakes originating in southern Italy and Greece, plus their associated tsunamis; major ash producing eruptions of Mount Etna (Sicily) and their putative impacts on air transport; storm waves; coastal/inland landslides; karstic collapse; flooding and drought. In criticising international rankings of the islands’ exposure, we highlight the issues involved in formulating hazard assessments, in particular incomplete catalogues of extreme natural events. With Malta witnessing swelling resident, seasonal (i.e. tourist) plus foreign-born populations and increases in the urban area, further research into hazards is required in order to develop evidence-based policies of disaster risk reduction (DRR). 相似文献
19.
Worldwide, earthquakes and related disasters have persistently had severe negative impacts on human livelihoods and have caused widespread socioeconomic and environmental damage. The severity of these disasters has prompted recognition of the need for comprehensive and effective disaster and emergency management (DEM) efforts, which are required to plan, respond to and develop risk mitigation strategies. In this regard, recently developed methods, known as multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), have been widely used in DEM domains by emergency managers to greatly improve the quality of the decision-making process, making it more participatory, explicit, rational and efficient. In this study, MCDA techniques of the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), integrated with GIS, were used to produce earthquake hazard and risk maps for earthquake disaster monitoring and analysis for a case study region of Küçükçekmece in Istanbul, Turkey. The five main criteria that have the strongest influence on the impact of earthquakes on the study region were determined: topography, distance to epicentre, soil classification, liquefaction and fault/focal mechanism. AHP was used to determine the weights of these parameters, which were also used as input into the TOPSIS method and GIS (ESRI ArcGIS) for simulating these outputs to produce earthquake hazard maps. The resulting earthquake hazard maps created by both the AHP and TOPSIS models were compared, showing high correlation and compatibility. To estimate the elements at risk, population and building data were used with the AHP and TOPSIS hazard maps for potential loss assessment; thus, we demonstrated the potential of integrating GIS with AHP and TOPSIS in generating hazard maps for effective earthquake disaster and risk management. 相似文献
20.
Tropical cyclones are a key climate-related hazard in South Asia. Assessment of the risk of cyclone impacts requires a comprehensive characterization of historical cyclone climatology. This study analyzes the tracks of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean. Based on their spatial characteristics, cyclone tracks appear to be grouped into five well-defined clusters. These clusters correspond to distinct regions of cyclonic activity and exhibit differences in characteristics such as genesis location, probability of landfall, duration, and maximum intensity. Some of the identified clusters appear particularly important with regard to impacts because events in these clusters have greater landfall probability and are more intense. The clustering approach is likely to provide useful insights for the characterization of cyclone risk. 相似文献