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1.
Abstract The aim of this paper is to quantify meteorological droughts and assign return periods to these droughts. Moreover, the relation between meteorological and hydrological droughts is explored. This has been done for the River Meuse basin in Western Europe at different spatial and temporal scales to enable comparison between different data sources (e.g. stations and climate models). Meteorological drought is assessed in two ways: using annual minimum precipitation amounts as a function of return period, and using troughs under threshold as a function of return period. The Weibull extreme value type 3 distribution has been fitted to both sources of information. Results show that the trough-under-threshold precipitation is larger than the annual minimum precipitation for a specific return period. Annual minimum precipitation values increase with spatial scale, being most pronounced for small temporal scales. The uncertainty in annual minimum point precipitation varies between 68% for the 30-day precipitation with a return period of 100 years, and 8% for the 120-day precipitation with a return period of 10 years. For spatially-averaged values, these numbers are slightly lower. The annual discharge deficit is significantly related to the annual minimum precipitation. Citation Booij, M. J. & de Wit, M. J. M. (2010) Extreme value statistics for annual minimum and trough-under-threshold precipitation at different spatio-temporal scales. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1289–1301. 相似文献
2.
This paper examines the performance of three climate re-analysis datasets in Angola, namely the ERA-40, NCEP-r1 and JRA-55, by comparing annual and seasonal estimates of precipitation, surface air temperature and evaporation with ground observation measurements. The observational dataset describes a region poorly covered by international climate databases and it is believed that most of its data have not been used in the data assimilation procedures of the climate models. This paper therefore provides a fresh look at the performance of these climate re-analysis datasets in a vast area where distance and civil war have hindered ground monitoring efforts. The re-analysis exercises offer better temperature estimates than precipitation estimates. When offered, the evaporation estimates from all three products are very poor. The three products are able to describe the main features of the spatial distribution of average annual precipitation and temperature, but struggle to reproduce the temporal changes of these variables. The results from a set of performance criteria show that the correlation between the observed ground measurements and re-analysis estimates is poor overall and the NSE values indicate that the average measured value at each location is usually a better estimate than the re-analysis estimate.
EDITOR A. CastellarinASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae 相似文献
3.
Climate change and runoff response were assessed for the Tizinafu River basin in the western Kunlun Mountains, China, based on isotope analysis. We examined climate change in the past 50 years using meteorological data from 1957 to 2010. Results of the Mann-Kendall non-parametric technique test indicated that temperature in the entire basin and precipitation in the mountains exhibited significant increasing trends. Climate change also led to significant increasing trends in autumn and winter runoff but not in spring runoff. By using 122 isotope samples, we investigated the variations of isotopes in different water sources and analysed the contributions of different water sources based on isotope hydrograph separation. The results show that meltwater, groundwater and rainfall contribute 17%, 40% and 43% of the annual streamflow, respectively. Isotope analysis was also used to explain the difference in seasonal runoff responses to climate change. As the Tizinafu is a precipitation-dependent river, future climate change in precipitation is a major concern for water resource management.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang 相似文献
4.
ABSTRACTIn this study, we investigate the temporal oscillations of precipitation extremes in different climate regions of the United States. We apply quantile perturbation analysis to average daily precipitation and, to 1041 weather stations with high-quality data from 1900 to 2016. Moreover, we explore the relationship between the extreme precipitation and different well-known cyclical climate modes. Overall, the analysis of average daily precipitation identifies a drier condition in the middle decades of the twentieth century and, a wetter climate in the early century and recent decades. Moreover, the in situ analysis reveals a significant anomaly, mainly prevalent in the Central and Southern regions of the United States. We applied a finite set of linear regression models with different combinations of cyclical climate modes to inform the variability of anomalies with best performing models. Our results highlight the dominant effect of ENSO and NAO in the wide area of the United States. 相似文献
5.
This study is an attempt to determine the trends in monthly, annual and monsoon total precipitation series over India by applying linear regression, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and discrete wavelet transform (DWT). The linear regression test was applied on five consecutive classical 30-year climate periods and a long-term precipitation series (1851–2006) to detect changes. The sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test was applied to identify the temporal variation in trend. Wavelet transform is a relatively new tool for trend analysis in hydrology. Comparison studies were carried out between decomposed series by DWT and original series. Furthermore, visualization of extreme and contributing events was carried out using the wavelet spectrum at different threshold values. The results showed that there are significant positive trends for annual and monsoon precipitation series in North Mountainous India (zone NMI) and North East India (NEI), whereas negative trends were detected when considering India as whole.
EDITOR A. Castellarin ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae 相似文献
6.
Temporal variability of precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) has high spatial gradients. Therefore, statistics of the temporal behaviour of precipitation and derived quantities over the IP must be estimated taking into account these spatial gradients. Some statistics can be displayed over a map. However there are statistics, such as Probability Density Functions at each location of the IP, that are impossible to display in a map. Because of this, it is mandatory to reduce the number of degrees of freedom which, in this case, consists of a reduction of the time series representative of the IP domain. In this work, we present a spatial partition of the IP region into areas of similar precipitation. For that, an observed dataset of daily-total precipitation for the years between 1951 and 2003 was used. The land-only high resolution data was obtained on a regular grid with 0.2° resolution in the IP domain. This data was subjected to a k-means Cluster Analysis in order to divide the IP into K regions. The clustering was performed using the squared Euclidean distance. Four clusters of IP grid points, defining 4 IP regions, were identified. The grid points in each region share the same time-varying behaviour which is different from region to region. The annual precipitation discriminates the following regions: (1) north Iberia, (2) a large region extending from the centre to the Mediterranean shores of the IP, (3) a large region ranging from the centre to the western and southwestern shores of the Iberia, and (4) northwest Iberia. The regions obtained for the four seasons of the year are similar. These results are consistent with the thermodynamic characteristics described in the available literature. These Iberian regions were used to assess climate change of seasonal precipitation from the multi-model ensemble of the fifteen simulations provided by the European project ENSEMBLES. Probability Density Functions of annual- and seasonal-total precipitation, consecutive dry days, and total precipitation above the 95th percentile, averaged in each region were estimated for a reference climate (1961–1960), a near-future climate (2021–2050), and a distant-future climate (2069–2098). Climate change projections are based on comparisons of these functions between each future climate and the reference climate.Finally, we emphasize that: (i) the methodology used here, based on Cluster Analysis, can be used to regionalise other areas of the world, and (ii) the identified regions of the IP can be used to represent the Iberian precipitation by four time series that can be subjected to further analysis, whose results can be presented in a concise manner. 相似文献
7.
Generalized extreme value shape parameter and its nature for extreme precipitation using long time series and the Bayesian approach 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Assessing the probability of extreme precipitation events is consequential in civil planning. This requires an understanding of how return values change with return periods, which is essentially described by the generalized extreme value (GEV) shape parameter. Some works in the field suggest a constant shape parameter, while our analysis indicates a non-universal value. We re-analysed an older precipitation dataset (169 stations) extended by Norwegian data (71 stations). We showed that while each set seems to have a constant shape parameter, it differs between the two datasets, indicating regional differences. For a more comprehensive analysis of spatial effects, we examined a global dataset (1495 stations). We provided shape parameter maps for two models and found clear evidence that the shape parameter depends on elevation, while the effect of latitude remains uncertain. Our results confirm an explanation in terms of dominating precipitation systems based on a proxy derived from the Köppen-Geiger climate classification.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
8.
Delineation of precipitation regions using location and atmospheric variables in two Canadian climate regions: the role of attribute selection 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The identification of homogeneous precipitation regions is essential in the planning, design and management of water resources systems. Regions are identified using a technique that partitions climate sites into groups based on the similarity of their attributes; the procedure is known as regionalization. In this paper the ability of four attribute sets to form large, coherent precipitation zones is assessed in terms of the regional homogeneity of precipitation statistics and computational efficiency. The outcomes provide guidance for effective attribute selection for future studies in Canada. The attributes under consideration include location parameters (latitude, longitude), distance to major water bodies, site elevation and atmospheric variables modelled at different pressure levels. The analysis is conducted in two diverse climate regions within Canada including the Prairie and the Great Lakes–St Lawrence lowlands regions. The method consists of four main steps: (i) formation of the attribute sets; (ii) determination of the preferred number of regions (selection of the c-value) into which the sites are partitioned; (iii) regionalization of climate sites using the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm; and (iv) validation of regional homogeneity using L-moment statistics. The results of the attribute formation, c-value selection, regionalization and validation processes are presented and discussed in a comparative analysis. Based on the results it is recommended for both regions to use location parameters including latitude, longitude and distance to water bodies (in the Great Lakes region) to form precipitation regions and to consider atmospheric variables for future (climate change) applications of the regionalization procedure. 相似文献
9.
This study evaluates changes in streamflow, temperature and precipitation over a time span of 105 years (1906–2010) in the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Monthly precipitation and temperature data for 29 climate divisions, and streamflow data for 29 naturalized gauges were analyzed. Two variations of the Mann-Kendall test, considering lag-1 auto correlation and long-term persistence, and the Pettitt test were employed to assess trends and shifts, respectively. Results indicated that streamflow increased during the winter–spring months and decreased during the summer– autumn period. Decreasing trends in winter precipitation were identified over snow-dominated regions in the upper basin. Significant increases in temperature were detected over several months. Major shifts were noticed in 1964, 1968 and in the late 1920s. Increasing temperature while decreasing streamflow and precipitation were noticed after major shifts in the 1930s, and these shifts coincided with coupled phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch 相似文献
10.
Abstract Characterization of the seasonal and inter-annual spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in a changing climate is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest adequate future water resources management strategies. Trends in annual, seasonal and maximum 30-day extreme rainfall over Ethiopia are investigated using 0.5° latitude?×?0.5° longitude gridded monthly precipitation data. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall among contiguous rainfall grid points is also assessed for possible spatial similarity across the country. The correlation between temporally coinciding North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and annual rainfall variability is examined to understand the underlying coherence. In total 381 precipitation grid points covering the whole of Ethiopia with five decades (1951–2000) of precipitation data are analysed using the Mann-Kendall test and Moran spatial autocorrelation method. Summer (July–September) seasonal and annual rainfall data exhibit significant decreasing trends in northern, northwestern and western parts of the country, whereas a few grid points in eastern areas show increasing annual rainfall trends. Most other parts of the country exhibit statistically insignificant trends. Regions with high annual and seasonal rainfall distribution exhibit high temporal and spatial correlation indices. Finally, the country is sub-divided into four zones based on annual rainfall similarity. The association of the AMO index with annual rainfall is modestly good for northern and northeastern parts of the country; however, it is weak over the southern region. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Uhlenbrook Citation Wagesho, N., Goel, N.K., and Jain, M.K. 2013. Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 354–373. 相似文献
11.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract Abstract A complete regional analysis of daily precipitations is carried out in the southern half of the province of Quebec, Canada. The first step of the regional estimation procedure consists of delineating the homogeneous regions within the area of study and testing for homogeneity within each region. The delineation of homogeneous regions is based on using L-moment ratios. A simulation-based testing of statistical homogeneity allows one to verify the inter-site variability. The second step of the procedure deals with the identification of the regional distribution and the estimation of its parameters. The General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was identified as an appropriate parent distribution. This distribution has already been recommended by several previous research studies for regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes. The parameters of the GEV distribution are estimated based on the computation of the regional L-CV, L-CS and the mean of annual maximal daily precipitations. The third step consists of the estimation of precipitation quantiles corresponding to various return periods. The final procedure allows for the estimation of these quantiles at sites where no precipitation information is available. The use of a jack-knife resampling procedure with data from the province of Quebec allows one to demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the regional estimation procedure. Values of the root mean square error were below 10% for a return period of 20 years, and 20% for a return period of 100 years. 相似文献
12.
13.
E. Mair G. Leitinger S. Della Chiesa G. Niedrist U. Tappeiner G. Bertoldi 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(11):2050-2060
ABSTRACTMeasuring winter solid and liquid precipitation with high temporal resolution in remote or higher elevation regions is a challenging task because of undercatch and power supply issues. However, the number of micro-meteorological stations and ultrasonic height sensors in mountain regions is steadily increasing. To gain more benefit from such stations, a new simple approach for EStimating SOlid and LIquid Precipitation (ESOLIP) is presented. The method consists of three main steps: (1) definition of precipitation events using micro-meteorological data, (2) quantification of solid and liquid precipitation using wet-bulb temperature and filtered snow height and (3) calculation of fresh snow density. ESOLIP performance was validated using data from a heated rain gauge, snow pillow and daily manual observations both for single precipitation events and over three winter seasons. Results proved ESOLIP as an effective approach for precipitation quantification, where snow height observations and basic meteorological measurements (air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, relative humidity), but no reliable rain gauges are available. 相似文献
14.
ABSTRACTThere is an implicit assumption in most work that the parameters calibrated based on observations remain valid for future climatic conditions. However, this might not be true due to parameter instability. This paper investigates the uncertainty and transferability of parameters in a hydrological model under climate change. Parameter transferability is investigated with three parameter sets identified for different climatic conditions, which are: wet, intermediate and dry. A parameter set based on the baseline period (1961–1990) is also investigated for comparison. For uncertainty analysis, a k-simulation set approach is proposed instead of employing the traditional optimization method which uses a single best-fit parameter set. The results show that the parameter set from the wet sub-period performs the best when transferred into wet climate condition, while the parameter set from the baseline period is the most appropriate when transferred into dry climate condition. The largest uncertainty of simulated daily high flows for 2011–2040 is from the parameter set trained in the dry sub-period, while that of simulated daily medium and low flows lies in the parameter set from the intermediate calibration sub-period. For annual changes in the future period, the uncertainty with the parameter set from the intermediate sub-period is the largest, followed by the wet sub-period and dry sub-period. Compared with high and medium flows/runoffs, the uncertainty of low flows/runoffs is much smaller for both simulated daily flows and annual runoffs. For seasonal runoffs, the largest uncertainty is from the intermediate sub-period, while the smallest is from the dry sub-period. Apart from that, the largest uncertainty can be observed for spring runoffs and the lowest one for autumn runoffs. Compared with the traditional optimization method, the k-simulation set approach shows many more advantages, particularly being able to provide uncertainty information to decision support for watershed management under climate change.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
15.
Renata D.G. Rodriguez Vijay P. Singh Fernando F. Pruski Arthur T. Calegario 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(11):2096-2109
ABSTRACTAlthough the semi-arid region of Brazil appears to be homogeneous due to drought conditions, there is a great deal of variability in climatic elements in the region, so that the definition of homogeneous regions will provide the deployment of measures appropriate for each locality. However, the limited information on climatic parameters in the region makes it difficult to define these regions. This problem can, however, be alleviated by the use of entropy theory. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the potential of the theory to identify hydrologically homogeneous regions for conditions of the semi-arid region of Brazil. Entropy-based Disorder Index (DI) data were computed, based on monthly precipitation and monthly water balance (precipitation – reference evapotranspiration) for 290 gauge stations. For defining homogeneous regions, cluster analysis was utilized, using the data on geographical information about rain gauges (latitude and longitude), annual precipitation, annual water balance, coefficient of skewness, coefficient of kurtosis and DI. The identification of homogeneous regions in the Brazilian semi-arid region was only possible when the grouping of stations was performed, based on DI for precipitation and latitude. Results showed the definition of seven homogeneous regions in the semi-arid region of Brazil. 相似文献
16.
Abstract Gridded meteorological data are available for all of Norway as time series dating from 1961. A new way of interpolating precipitation in space from observed values is proposed. Based on the criteria that interpolated precipitation fields in space should be consistent with observed spatial statistics, such as spatial mean, variance and intermittency, spatial fields of precipitation are simulated from a gamma distribution with parameters determined from observed data, adjusted for intermittency. The simulated data are distributed in space, using the spatial pattern derived from kriging. The proposed method is compared to indicator kriging and to the current methodology used for producing gridded precipitation data. Cross-validation gave similar results for the three methods with respect to RMSE, temporal mean and standard deviation, whereas a comparison on estimated spatial variance showed that the new method has a near perfect agreement with observations. Indicator kriging underestimated the spatial variance by 60–80% and the current method produced a significant scatter in its estimates. Citation Skaugen, T. & Andersen, J. (2010) Simulated precipitation fields with variance-consistent interpolation. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 676–686. 相似文献
17.
ABSTRACTSedimentation in navigable waterways and harbours is of concern for many water and port managers. One potential source of variability in sedimentation is the annual sediment load of the river that empties in the harbour. The main objective of this study was to use some of the regularly monitored hydro-meteorological variables to compare estimates of hourly suspended sediment concentration in the Saint John River using a sediment rating curve and a model tree (M5?) with different combinations of predictors. Estimated suspended sediment concentrations were multiplied by measured flows to estimate suspended sediment loads. Best results were obtained using M5? with four predictors, returning an R2 of 0.72 on calibration data and an R2 of 0.46 on validation data. Total load was underestimated by 1.41% for the calibration period and overestimated by 2.38% for the validation period. Overall, the model tree approach is suggested for its relative ease of implementation and constant performance.
EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR B. Touaibia 相似文献
18.
Abstract To investigate the consequences of climate change on the water budget in small catchments, it is necessary to know the change of local precipitation and temperature. General Circulation Models (GCM) cannot provide regional climate parameters yet, because of their coarse resolution and imprecise modelling of precipitation. Therefore downscaling of precipitation and temperature has to be carried out from the GCM grids to a small scale of a few square kilometres. Daily rainfall and temperature are modelled as processes conditioned on atmospheric circulation. Rainfall is linked to the circulation patterns (CPs) using conditional probabilities and conditional rainfall amount distribution. Both temperature and precipitation are downscaled to several locations simultaneously taking into account the CP dependent spatial correlation. Temperature is modelled using a simple autoregressive approach, conditioned on atmospheric circulation and local areal precipitation. The model uses the classification scheme of the German Weather Service and a fuzzy rule-based classification. It was applied in the Aller catchment for validation using observed rainfall and temperature, and observed classified geopotential pressure heights. GCM scenarios of the ECHAM model were used to make climate change predictions (using classified GCM geopotential heights); simulated values agree fairly well with historical data. Results for different GCM scenarios are shown. 相似文献
19.
ABSTRACTA two-parameter monthly water balance model to simulate runoff can be used for a water resources planning programme and climate impact studies. However, the model estimates two parameters of transformation of time scale (c) and of the field capacity (SC) by a trial-and-error method. This study suggests a modified methodology to estimate the parameters c and SC using the meteorological and geological conditions. The modified model is compared with the Kajiyama formula to simulate the runoff in the Han River and International Hydrological Programme representative basins in South Korea. We show that the estimated c and SC can be used as the initial or optimal values for the monthly runoff simulation study in the model.
EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae 相似文献
20.
Yeugeniy M. Gusev Vladimir A. Semenov Olga N. Nasonova Evgeny E. Kovalev 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(8):1181-1199
Assessments of hydrological response to climatic changes are characterized by different types of uncertainties. Here, the uncertainty caused by weather noise associated with the chaotic character of atmospheric processes is considered. A technique for estimating such uncertainty in simulated water balance components based on application of the land surface model SWAP and the climate model ECHAM5 is described. The technique is applied for estimating the uncertainties in the simulated water balance components (precipitation, river runoff and evapotranspiration) of some northern river basins of Russia. It is shown that the larger the area of a basin the less the uncertainty. This dependency is smoothed by differences in natural conditions of the basins. Analysis of the spectral densities of water balance components shows that a river basin filters out high-frequency harmonics of spectral density of precipitation (corresponding to synoptic or sub-seasonal scale) during its transformation into evapotranspiration and especially into runoff.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR H. Kreibich 相似文献