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1.
In the previous study (Dabas et al. in Solar Phys.
250, 171, 2008), to predict the maximum sunspot number of the current solar cycle 24 based on the geomagnetic activity of the preceding
sunspot minimum, the Ap index was used which is available from the last six to seven solar cycles. Since a longer series of the aa index is available for more than the last 10 – 12 cycles, the present study utilizes aa to validate the earlier prediction. Based on the same methodology, the disturbance index (DI), which is the 12-month moving
average of the number of disturbed days (aa≥50), is computed at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks 1,2,…,13; each of them in six-month duration) during the
declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle. Then its correlation with the maximum sunspot number of the following cycle
is evaluated. As in the case of Ap, variate block 9, which occurs exactly 48 months after the current cycle maximum, gives the best correlation (R=0.96) with a minimum standard error of estimation (SEE) of ± 9. As applied to cycle 24, the aa index as precursor yields the maximum sunspot number of about 120±16 (the 90% prediction interval), which is within the 90%
prediction interval of the earlier prediction (124±23 using Ap). Furthermore, the same method is applied to an expanded range of cycles 11 – 23, and once again variate block 9 gives the
best correlation (R=0.95) with a minimum SEE of ± 13. The relation yields the modified maximum amplitude for cycle 24 of about 131±20, which
is also close to our earlier prediction and is likely to occur at about 43±4 months after its minimum (December 2008), probably
in July 2012 (± 4 months). 相似文献
2.
J. Javaraiah 《Solar physics》2008,252(2):419-439
Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874 – 2006, Javaraiah
(Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc.
377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the Sun’s northern
hemisphere and in the time-interval of −1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval
of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112±13 and 74±10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude
of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that the north – south asymmetries in the aforementioned area sums have a strong ≈44-year
periodicity and from this we can infer that the upcoming cycle 24 will be weaker than cycle 23. In case of (1), the north – south
asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years
in advance, and we get 103±10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically
significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north – south difference used in (3).
By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get
87±7 for the amplitude of cycle 24, which is about 28% less than the amplitude of cycle 23. Our results also indicate that
cycle 25 will be stronger than cycle 24. The variations in the mean meridional motions of the spot groups during odd and even
numbered cycles suggest that the solar meridional flows may transport magnetic flux across the solar equator and potentially
responsible for all the above relationships.
The author did a major part of this work at the Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA, 430 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles,
CA 90095-1547, USA. 相似文献
3.
H. Kiliç 《Solar physics》2009,255(1):155-162
The short-term periodicities in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and flare index data are investigated in detail using the
Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) for the full disk of the Sun separately over the rising, the maximum,
and the declining portions of solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). While sunspot numbers and areas show several significant periodicities
in a wide range between 23.1 and 36.4 days, the flare index data do not exhibit any significant periodicity. The earlier conclusion
of Pap, Tobiska, and Bouwer (1990, Solar Phys.
129, 165) and Kane (2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys.
65, 1169), that the 27-day periodicity is more pronounced in the declining portion of a solar cycle than in the rising and maximum
ones, seems to be true for sunspot numbers and sunspot area data analyzed here during solar cycle 23. 相似文献
4.
Precursor techniques, in particular those using geomagnetic indices, often are used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude
for a sunspot cycle. Here, the year 2008 is taken as being the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24. Based on the average aa index value for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, we estimate the expected annual maximum amplitude
for cycle 24 to be about 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy), indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21 – 23.
Presuming a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number minimum in August 2008, a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum is
expected about October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy). 相似文献
5.
What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity
over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio
flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic
rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar
activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot
record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric
with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude
cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres
remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active
latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift
toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant
secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak
evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics
indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following
cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023. 相似文献
6.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,246(2):471-485
Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with
the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R
z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R
z) with R
z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R
z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86)
for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc.
377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes
and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present
study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation
+0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R
z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the
sunspot number R
z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R
z(max )=129.7±16.3. 相似文献
7.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,243(2):205-217
For many purposes (e.g., satellite drag, operation of power grids on Earth, and satellite communication systems), predictions of the strength of
a solar cycle are needed. Predictions are made by using different methods, depending upon the characteristics of sunspot cycles.
However, the method most successful seems to be the precursor method by Ohl and his group, in which the geomagnetic activity
in the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is found to be well correlated with the sunspot maximum of the next cycle. In the
present communication, the method is illustrated by plotting the 12-month running means aa(min ) of the geomagnetic disturbance index aa near sunspot minimum versus the 12-month running means of the sunspot number Rz near sunspot maximum [aa(min ) versus Rz(max )], using data for sunspot cycles 9 – 18 to predict the Rz(max ) of cycle 19, using data for cycles 9 – 19 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 20, and so on, and finally using data for cycles 9 – 23 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 24, which is expected to occur in 2011 – 2012. The correlations were good (∼+0.90) and our preliminary predicted
Rz(max ) for cycle 24 is 142±24, though this can be regarded as an upper limit, since there are indications that solar minimum
may occur as late as March 2008. (Some workers have reported that the aa values before 1957 would have an error of 3 nT; if true, the revised estimate would be 124±26.) This result of the precursor
method is compared with several other predictions of cycle 24, which are in a very wide range (50 – 200), so that whatever
may be the final observed value, some method or other will be discredited, as happened in the case of cycle 23. 相似文献
8.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2008,249(2):369-380
The sunspot number series at the peak of sunspot activity often has two or three peaks (Gnevyshev peaks; Gnevyshev, Solar Phys.
1, 107, 1967; Solar Phys.
51, 175, 1977). The sunspot group number (SGN) data were examined for 1997 – 2003 (part of cycle 23) and compared with data for coronal
mass ejection (CME) events. It was noticed that they exhibited mostly two Gnevyshev peaks in each of the four latitude belts
0° – 10°, 10° – 20°, 20 ° – 30°, and > 30°, in both N (northern) and S (southern) solar hemispheres. The SGN were confined
to within latitudes ± 50° around the Equator, mostly around ± 35°, and seemed to occur later in lower latitudes, indicating
possible latitudinal migration as in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In CMEs, less energetic CMEs (of widths < 71°) showed
prominent Gnevyshev peaks during sunspot maximum years in almost all latitude belts, including near the poles. The CME activity
lasted longer than the SGN activity. However, the CME peaks did not match the SGN peaks and were almost simultaneous at different
latitudes, indicating no latitudinal migration. In energetic CMEs including halo CMEs, the Gnevyshev peaks were obscure and
ill-defined. The solar polar magnetic fields show polarity reversal during sunspot maximum years, first at the North Pole
and, a few months later, at the South Pole. However, the CME peaks and gaps did not match with the magnetic field reversal
times, preceding them by several months, rendering any cause – effect relationship doubtful. 相似文献
9.
A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting
the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual
mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24 will be
less than cycles 21–22. Further, we have estimated the annual mean geomagnetic activity aa index for the solar maximum year in cycle 24 to be 20.6 ± 4.7 and the average of the annual mean sunspot number during the
descending phase of cycle 24 is estimated to be 48 ± 16.8. 相似文献
10.
The amplitude of a solar-activity cycle is found to be well correlated (r = −0.811) with the descending time three cycles earlier, in smoothed monthly-mean sunspot numbers for Cycles 8 – 23. The
descending time therefore can be used as one of the indicators to predict the amplitudes. As a result, the amplitudes of Cycles
24 – 25 are estimated to be 114.8 ± 17.4, 111.6 ± 17.4, respectively, where the error bar equals ± standard error. 相似文献
11.
K. M. Hiremath 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2006,27(2-3):367-372
We use 130 years data for studying correlative effects due to solar cycle and activity phenomena on the occurrence of rainfall
over India. For the period of different solar cycles, we compute the correlation coefficients and significance of correlation
coefficients for the seasonal months of Jan–Feb (JF), Mar–May (MAM), June–Sept (JJAS) and Oct–Dec (OND) and,annual mean data. We find that: (i) with a moderate-to-high significance, Indian rainfall is correlated with the sunspot activity and,
(ii) there is an overall trend that during the period of low sunspot activity, occurrence of rainfall is high compared to
the period of high sunspot activity.
We speculate in this study a possible physical connection between the occurrence of the rainfall and the sunspot activities
and, the flux of galactic cosmic rays. Some of the negative correlations between the occurrences of the sunspot and rainfall
activities obtained for different solar cycle periods are interpreted as effects of aerosols on the rain forming clouds due
to either intermittent volcanic eruptions or due to intrusion of interstellar dust particles in the Earth’s atmosphere. 相似文献
12.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2006,236(1):207-226
After increasing almost monotonically from sunspot minimum, sunspot activity near maximum falters and remains in a narrow
grove for several tens of months. During the 2–3 years of turmoil near sunspot maximum, sunspots depict several peaks (Gnevyshev
peaks). The spaces between successive peaks are termed as Gnevyshev Gaps (GG). An examination showed that the depths of the troughs varied considerably from one GG to the next in the same cycle, with magnitudes varying in a wide range (<1%
to ∼20%). In any cycle, the sunspot patterns were dissimilar to those of other solar parameters, qualitatively as well as
quantitatively, indicating a general turbulence, affecting different solar parameters differently. The solar polar magnetic
field reversal does not occur at the beginning of the general turmoil; it occurs much later. For cosmic ray (CR) modulation
which occurs deep in the heliosphere, one would have thought that the solar open magnetic field flux would play a crucial
role, but observations show that the sunspot GGs are not reflected well in the solar open magnetic flux, where sometimes only
one peak occurred (hence no GG at all), not matching with any sunspot peak and with different peaks in the northern and southern
hemispheres (north – south asymmetry). Gaps are seen in interplanetary parameters but these do not match exactly with sunspot
GGs. For CR data available only for five cycles (19 – 23), there are CR gaps in some cycles, but the CR gaps do not match
perfectly with gaps in the solar open magnetic field flux or in interplanetary parameters or with sunspot GGs. Durations are
different and/or there are variable delays, and magnitudes of the sunspot GGs and CR gaps are not proportional. Solar polar
magnetic field reversal intervals do not coincide with either sunspot GGs or CR gaps, and some CR gaps start before magnetic field reversals, which should not happen if the magnetic field reversals are the cause of the CR gaps. 相似文献
13.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,245(2):415-421
The occurrence of double peaks near the maximum of sunspot activity was first emphasized by Gnevyshev (Solar Phys.
1, 107, 1967) for the peak years of solar cycle 19 (1954 – 1964). In the present analysis, it is shown that double peaks in sunspot numbers
were clearly visible in solar latitudes 10 – 30° N but almost absent in the southern latitudes, where some single peaks were
observed out of phase by several months from any of the peaks in the northern latitudes. The spacing between the double peaks
increased from higher to lower northern latitudes, hinting at latitudinal migration. In the next cycle 20 (1965 – 1976), which
was of about half the strength of cycle 19, no clear-cut double peaks were seen, and the prominent peak in the early part
of 1967 in the northern latitudes was seen a few months later in the southern latitudes. A direct relationship of Gnevyshev
peaks with changes in the solar polar magnetic fields seems to be dubious. The commencements do not match. 相似文献
14.
In this paper, we used the same four-parameter function as Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann (1994) proposed and studied the
temporal behavior of sunspot cycles 12–22. We used the monthly averages of sunspot areas and their 13-point smoothed data.
Our results show the following. (1) The four-parameter function may reduce to a function of only two parameters. (2) As a
cycle progresses, the two-parameter function can be accurately determined after 4–4.5 years from the start of the cycle. A
good prediction can be made for the timing and size of the sunspot maximum and for the behavior of the remaining 5–10 years
of the cycle. (3) The solar activity in the remaining and forthcoming years of cycle 23 is predicted. (4) The smoothed monthly
sunspot areas are more suitable to be employed for prediction at the maximum and the descending period of a cycle, whereas
at the early period of a cycle the (un-smoothed) monthly data are more suitable. 相似文献
15.
During solar cycle 23, 82 interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) were identified by the Magnetic Field Investigation (MFI) team
using Wind (1995 – 2003) solar wind plasma and magnetic field data from solar minimum through the maximum of cycle 23. The average occurrence
rate is 9.5 MCs per year for the overall period. It is found that some of the anomalies in the frequency of occurrence were
during the early part of solar cycle 23: (i) only four MCs were observed in 1999, and (ii) an unusually large number of MCs
(17 events) were observed in 1997, just after solar minimum. We also discuss the relationship between MCs, coronal mass ejections
(CMEs), and geomagnetic storms. During the period 1996 – 2003, almost 8000 CMEs were observed by SOHO-LASCO. The occurrence
frequency of MCs appears to be related neither to the occurrence of CMEs as observed by SOHO LASCO nor to the sunspot number.
When we included “magnetic cloud-like structures” (MCLs, defined by Lepping, Wu, and Berdichevsky, 2005), we found that the
occurrence of the joint set (MCs + MCLs) is correlated with both sunspot number and the occurrence rate of CMEs. The average
duration of the MCL structures is ~40% shorter than that of the MCs. The MCs are typically more geoeffective than the MCLs,
because the average southward field component is generally stronger and longer lasting in MCs than in MCLs. In addition, most
severe storms caused by MCs/MCLs with Dst
min≤ −100 nT occurred in the active solar period. 相似文献
16.
R. S. Dabas Kavita Sharma Rupesh M. Das K. G. M. Pillai Parvati Chopra N. K. Sethi 《Solar physics》2008,250(1):171-181
Based on cycles 17 – 23, linear correlations are obtained between 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days
when Ap is greater than or equal to 25, called the Disturbance Index (DI), at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks
1, 2,… , each of six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle and the maximum amplitude of
the following sunspot cycle. In particular, variate block 9, which occurs just prior to subsequent cycle minimum, gives the
best correlation (0.94) with a minimum standard error of estimation of ± 13, and hindcasting shows agreement between predicted
and observed maximum amplitudes to about 10%. As applied to cycle 24, the modified precursor technique yields maximum amplitude
of about 124±23 occurring about 45±4 months after its minimum amplitude occurrence, probably in mid to late 2011. 相似文献
17.
V. A. Kotov 《Bulletin of the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory》2010,106(1):137-151
The prolonged 2007–2009 minimum is a big surprise for solar physics. In order to reveal the causes, we analyze the variability
of the general magnetic field (GMF) of the Sun as a star measured by CrAO and five other observatories since 1968 (more than
19000 daily field strengths B were obtained in 41 years). Sharp yearly mean extrema of the negative (S) field took place in 1969, 1990, and 2008, with
the third extremum, in contrast to the two previous ones, having coincided with the sunspot minimum. This explains both the
long duration of the minimum and the record (over the last 100 years) increase in the length of the Wolf cycle (no. 23) to
12 or more years. The S-field extrema followed with a period of 19.5 ± 1.1 yr—some mean between the 22.1 ± 0.3-yr sunspot
cycle, the 18.6-yr saros, and the 19.9-yr Jupiter-Saturn conjunction period. It is pointed out that, for some unclear reason,
the negative polarity dominated on the Sun in 1968–2008: the overall mean B = −0.021 ± 0.015 G. The existence of a second Sun that obeys the laws of quantum mechanics is hypothesized. The “quantum”
model of the Sun-2 explains many properties of the “classical” Sun-1, including the coronal heating, cyclic activity, periodic
variations in GMF, and its sector structure. 相似文献
18.
Using Greenwich data (1879–1976) and SOON/NOAA data (1977–2002) on sunspot groups we found the following results: (i) The
Sun's mean (over all the concerned cycles during 1879–1975) equatorial rotation rate (A) is significantly larger (≈0.1%) in the odd-numbered sunspot cycles (ONSCs) than in the even-numbered sunspot cycles (ENSCs).
The mean rotation is significantly (≈10%) more differential in the ONSCs than in the ENSCs. North–south difference in the
mean equatorial rotation rate is larger in the ONSCs than in the ENSCs. North–south difference in the mean latitude gradient
of the rotation is significant in the ENSCs and insignificant in the ONSCs. (ii) The known very large decrease in A from cycle 13 to cycle 14 is confirmed. The amount of this decrease in the mean A was about 0.017 μrad s−1. Also, we find that A decreased from cycle 17 to cycle 18 by about 0.008 μrad s−1 and from cycle 21 to cycle 22 by about 0.016 μrad s−1. From cycle 13 to cycle 14 the decrease in A was more in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere, it is opposite in the later two epochs. The time gap
between the consecutive drops in A is about 44 years, suggesting the existence of a `44-yr' cycle or `double Hale cycle' in A. The time gap between the two large drops, viz., from cycle 13 to cycle 14 and from cycle 21 to cycle 22, is about 90 years
(Gleissberg cycle). We predict that the next drop (moderate) in A will be occurring from cycle 25 to cycle 26 and will be followed by a relatively large-amplitude `double Hale cycle' of sunspot
activity. (iii) Existence of a 90-yr cycle is seen in the cycle-to-cycle variation of the latitude gradient (B). A weak 22-yr modulation in B seems to be superposed on the relatively strong 90-yr modulation. (iv) The coefficient A varies significantly only during ONSCs and the variation has maximum amplitude in the order of 0.01 μrad s−1 around activity minima. (v) There exists a good anticorrelation between the mean variation of B during the ONSCs and that during the ENSCs, suggesting the existence of a `22-yr' periodicity in B. The maximum amplitude of the variation of B is of the order of 0.05 μrad s−1 around the activity minima. (vi) It seems that the well-known Gnevyshev and Ohl rule of solar activity is applicable also
to the cycle-to-cycle amplitude modulation of B from cycle 13 to cycle 20, but the cycles 12 (in the northern hemisphere, Greenwich data) and 21 (in both hemispheres, SOON/NOAA
data) seem to violate this rule in B. And (vii) All the aforesaid statistically significant variations in A and B seem to be related to the approximate 179-yr cycle, 1811–1989, of variation in the Sun's motion about the center of mass
of the solar system. 相似文献
19.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2006,233(1):107-115
This paper examines the variations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) during solar cycle 23
and compares these with those of several other indices. During cycle 23, solar and interplanetary parameters had an increase
from 1996 (sunspot minimum) to ∼2000, but the interval 1998–2002 had short-term fluctuations. Sunspot numbers had peaks in
1998, 1999, 2000 (largest), 2001 (second largest), and 2002. Other solar indices had matching peaks, but the peak in 2000
was larger than the peak in 2001 only for a few indices, and smaller or equal for other solar indices. The solar open magnetic
flux had very different characteristics for different solar latitudes. The high solar latitudes (45∘–90∘) in both N and S hemispheres had flux evolutions anti-parallel to sunspot activity. Fluxes in low solar latitudes (0∘–45∘) evolved roughly parallel to sunspot activity, but the finer structures (peaks etc. during sunspot maximum years) did not
match with sunspot peaks. Also, the low latitude fluxes had considerable N–S asymmetry. For CMEs and ICMEs, there were increases
similar to sunspots during 1996–2000, and during 2000–2002, there was good matching of peaks. But the peaks in 2000 and 2001
for CMEs and ICMEs had similar sizes, in contrast to the 2000 peak being greater than the 2001 peak for sunspots. Whereas
ICMEs started decreasing from 2001 onwards, CMEs continued to remain high in 2002, probably due to extra contribution from
high-latitude prominences, which had no equivalent interplanetary ICMEs or shocks. Cosmic ray intensity had features matching
with those of sunspots during 2000–2001, with the 2000 peak (on a reverse scale, actually a cosmic ray decrease or trough)
larger than the 2001 peak. However, cosmic ray decreases started with a delay and ended with a delay with respect to sunspot
activity. 相似文献
20.
Mykola I. Pishkalo 《Solar physics》2006,233(2):277-290
We have investigated the correlation between the relative sunspot number and tilt of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS)
in solar cycles 21–23. Strong and highly significant positive correlation (r > 0.8, P < 0.001) was found for corresponding data in the time interval from May 1976 through December 2004. Cross-correlation analysis
does not reveal any time shift between the data sets. Reconstructed values of the HCS tilt, for the time interval before 1976,
are found using sunspot numbers. To take different amplitude of solar cycles into account they were then normalized to zero
in the minima of the solar activity and to average in solar cycles 21–23 maximal calculated HCS tilt in the maxima. These
normalized reconstructed HCS data are compared with the angular positions of the brightest coronal streamers observed during
total solar eclipses in 1870–2002, and their agreement is better for the minima of the solar activity than for the maxima. 相似文献