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1.
研究了随机地震激励下土层地震反应及土-结构相互作用分析中有限土域的取值范围对计算精度的影响。分别以基岩白噪声谱和杜修力修正基岩谱作为输入,进行了土层随机地震反应分析,探讨了自由边界、固定边界和黏弹性边界3种人工边界条件下土域的取值范围、土介质阻尼和土体长深比（L/H）对土层随机地震反应的影响,给出了侧向人工边界合理位置的具体建议。在此基础上,选取土体的合理边界范围,建立土-结构相互作用分析模型,分别以基岩白噪声谱、杜修力修正基岩谱以及实测地震波功率谱作为输入,进行了土-结构相互作用体系随机地震反应分析,计算结果验证了侧向人工边界取值在土-结构相互作用体系随机地震反应分析中的有效性。 相似文献
2.
A method based on Bayesian techniques has been applied to evaluate the seismic hazard in the two test areas selected by the participants in the ESC/SC8-TERESA project: Sannio-Matese in Italy and the northern Rhine region (BGN). A prior site occurrence model (prior SOM) is obtain from a seismicity distribution modeled in wide seismic sources. The posterior occurrence model (posterior SOM) is calculated after a Bayesian correction which, basically, recovers the spatial information of the epicenter distribution and considers attenuation and location errors, not using source zones. The uncertainties of the occurrence probabilities are evaluated in both models.The results are displayed in terms of probability and variation coefficient contour maps for a chosen intensity level, and with plots of mean return period versus intensity in selected test sites, including the 90% probability intervals.It turns out that the posterior SOM gives a better resolution in the probability estimate, decreasing its uncertainty, especially in low seismic activity regions. 相似文献
3.
可靠地划分地震区可奠定地震预测与地震危险性评价的地质基础,具有十分重要的意义。笔者等通过研究分析指出板内孕震构造块体侧向边界可由区域性大断层或由区域性大断层与板块边界界定,底边界为康拉德面或低速高导层;板间孕震构造块体为俯冲板块,可由区域性大断层和(或)板块边界约束;在同一个孕震构造块体和同一轮地震周期的地震具有内在联系。因此,地震区可定义为代表相应孕震构造块体地震活动的区域,其可表征该块体内源自锁固段破裂的地震活动。基于笔者等提出的孕震构造块体和相应地震区边界确定原则,把全球两大地震带(环太平洋地震带和欧亚地震带)划分为62个地震区;每个地震区的分区方案均通过了多锁固段脆性破裂理论的检验,这说明方案可靠。进而,笔者等归纳总结了地震区划分方法。 相似文献
4.
Some Bayesian methods of dealing with inaccurate or vague data are introduced in the framework of seismic hazard assessment. Inaccurate data affected by heterogeneous errors are modeled by a probability distribution instead of the usual value plus a random error representation; these data are generically called imprecise. The earthquake size and the number of events in a certain time are modeled as imprecise data. Imprecise data allow us to introduce into the estimation procedures the uncertainty inherent in the inaccuracy and heterogeneity of the measuring systems from which the data were obtained. The problem of estimating the parameter of a Poisson process is shown to be feasible by the use of Bayesian techniques and imprecise data. This background technique can be applied to a general problem of seismic hazard estimation. Initially, data in a regional earthquake catalog are assumed imprecise both in size and location (i.e errors in the epicenter or spreading over a given source). By means of scattered attenuation laws, the regional catalog can be translated into a so-called site catalog of imprecise events. The site catalog is then used to estimate return periods or occurrence probabilities, taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Special attention is paid to priors in the Bayesian estimation. They can be used to introduce additional information as well as scattered frequency-size laws for local events. A simple example is presented to illustrate the capabilities of this methodology. 相似文献
5.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2022,13(2):101317
In some studies on landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), landslide boundary and spatial shape characteristics have been expressed in the form of points or circles in the landslide inventory instead of the accurate polygon form. Different expressions of landslide boundaries and spatial shapes may lead to substantial differences in the distribution of predicted landslide susceptibility indexes (LSIs); moreover, the presence of irregular landslide boundaries and spatial shapes introduces uncertainties into the LSM. To address this issue by accurately drawing polygonal boundaries based on LSM, the uncertainty patterns of LSM modelling under two different landslide boundaries and spatial shapes, such as landslide points and circles, are compared. Within the research area of Ruijin City in China, a total of 370 landslides with accurate boundary information are obtained, and 10 environmental factors, such as slope and lithology, are selected. Then, correlation analyses between the landslide boundary shapes and selected environmental factors are performed via the frequency ratio (FR) method. Next, a support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) based on landslide points, circles and accurate landslide polygons are constructed as point-, circle- and polygon-based SVM and RF models, respectively, to address LSM. Finally, the prediction capabilities of the above models are compared by computing their statistical accuracy using receiver operating characteristic analysis, and the uncertainties of the predicted LSIs under the above models are discussed. The results show that using polygonal surfaces with a higher reliability and accuracy to express the landslide boundary and spatial shape can provide a markedly improved LSM accuracy, compared to those based on the points and circles. Moreover, a higher degree of uncertainty of LSM modelling is present in the expression of points because there are too few grid units acting as model input variables. Additionally, the expression of the landslide boundary as circles introduces errors in measurement and is not as accurate as the polygonal boundary in most LSM modelling cases. In addition, the results under different conditions show that the polygon-based models have a higher LSM accuracy, with lower mean values and larger standard deviations compared with the point- and circle-based models. Finally, the overall LSM accuracy of the RF is superior to that of the SVM, and similar patterns of landslide boundary and spatial shape affecting the LSM modelling are reflected in the SVM and RF models. 相似文献
6.
I. D. Gupta 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(2):485-499
The use of recent ground motion prediction equations in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) with area type of seismic sources requires defining the probability distributions of various source-to-site distance metrics with finite fault rupture taken into account. This task is rendered very difficult due to large epistemic uncertainties involved in specifying the details of the causative faults for area sources of diffused seismicity. However, it may generally be possible to constrain the strike and dip angles for fault ruptures in area sources from regional seismotectonic and geological information. This paper proposes to estimate the various finite fault distance measures from a site to a location in an area source by averaging the distances for several fault rupture scenarios with randomly distributed strike and dip over specified ranges. To consider the spatial distribution of the seismicity, the paper then provides the guidelines for defining the distance distributions by assigning suitable weight factors to the distance estimates for a grid of locations in the source area. The PSHA computation based on the distance distributions thus defined is shown to provide quite realistic and objective estimate of the hazard. 相似文献
7.
应用概率地震危险性评价模型进行地震滑坡危险性区划,是解决潜在地震诱发滑坡危险性评价中震源不确定性与诱发滑坡时空不确定性的有效方法 .通过理论分析,结合鲁甸地震区的实际情况,对基于力学原理的Newmark滑块位移模型与概率地震滑坡危险性分析方法中的参数的不确定性问题进行了分析,将斜坡岩土体地震作用下的强度衰减效应、地震加速度地形放大效应、断层破碎带效应融合到了斜坡累积位移计算模型中,进行了模型计算参数的优化.改进后的分析模型,更好地反映了高陡斜坡地形与断层破碎带对地震滑坡灾害发育的控制作用,在鲁甸地震区域滑坡应用中,优化模型中的滑坡失稳极高风险区与实际地震滑坡分布表现出了较好的一致性,在超越概率2%的滑坡失稳概率分布中,鲁甸地区包谷垴-小河断裂、鲁甸-昭通断裂带及牛栏江河谷地带地震滑坡高-极高风险区分布面积增幅十分显著.因此,在Newmark滑块位移模型中考虑地震动参数与岩土参数动态响应规律与变量间的定量关系,对于提高区域斜坡稳定性分析的可靠性具有重要意义. 相似文献
8.
Boundary setting method for the seismic dynamic response analysis of engineering rock mass structures using the discontinuous deformation analysis method 
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下载免费PDF全文 Large deformations and discontinuous problems can be calculated using the discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) method by solving time steps, and this method is suitable for simulating the seismic dynamic response of engineering rock mass structures. However, the boundary setting must be carefully analyzed. In this paper, four boundary settings for the DDA method are investigated. First, the contributions to the DDA equations for nonreflecting boundaries (including the viscous boundary and the viscoelastic boundary) are deduced based on the Newmark method. Second, a free‐field boundary is introduced in the DDA method with boundary grid generation and coupling calculation algorithms to accurately simulate external source wave motion, such as earthquakes. Third, seismic input boundary treatments are intensively examined, and the force input method is introduced based on nonreflecting boundaries. Finally, the static‐dynamic unified boundary is implemented to ensure consistent boundary transformation. The boundary setting method in the DDA method is discussed, and the suggested treatments are used to analyze the seismic dynamic response of underground caverns. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
10.
The assessment of seismic hazard at five selected sites in the Sannio-Matese region is based on the computer program SRAMSC. Owing to the extensive historical data base for the output parameter, the MSK intensiy is chosen. The seismicity model is made up of five narrow area seismic sources. Circular or elliptical macroseismic fields are assigned to individual sources. A generalized Kövesligethy equation is used for this purpose as the attenuation relationship. The study reveals similar and a rather high hazard at the sites at Benevento, Boiano, and Melfi, which are located in the zone of highest seismic activity. At the Pomigliano and Lucera sites, the assessed hazard is much lower. 相似文献
11.
作为地震灾害评估的理论基础,地震动力学主要研究与地震活动有关的断裂机制、破裂过程、震源辐射和由此而引起的地震波的传播及地面运动规律。对地震力学、震源辐射和能量释放等经典理论问题进行了系统研究。在此基础上,应用最新的定量地震学研究方法,以逻辑树的形式综合地震、地质和大地测量资料,提供了不同构造环境和断裂机制条件下地震灾害评估的概率分析和确定性分析实例。用于震源分析的典型构造类型包括板内地壳震源层、地壳活动断层及其速率、板块俯冲界面和俯冲板片。由于输入模型中不确定因素的存在,如输入参数的随机性和科学分析方法本身的不确定性,对分析结果的不确定性需审慎对待。通常对不同的模型或参量,包括地面衰减模型,进行加权平均可较为合理地减小结果的偏差：概率分析和确定性分析方法的结合亦为可取之有效途径。 相似文献
12.
Boundary settings for the seismic dynamic response analysis of rock masses using the numerical manifold method 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Aiming to accurately simulate seismic dynamic response of rock masses using the numerical manifold method (NMM), boundary settings must be treated carefully. In this paper, 4 issues in boundary settings are investigated to improve the performance of NMM: (1) Nonreflecting boundaries including the viscous boundary and viscoelastic boundary are considered; (2) A free‐field boundary is incorporated into NMM to accurately simulate external source wave motion; (3) A seismic input boundary is considered, and the force input method is introduced; and (4) A static‐dynamic unified boundary is incorporated for the convenience of transforming displacement boundary into other types of boundaries, such as nonreflecting boundaries and seismic input boundary. Several benchmark problems are solved to validate the improved NMM. Simulation results agree well with analytical ones, indicating that the improved NMM is able to simulate seismic dynamic response of rock masses reliably and correctly. 相似文献
13.
为解决确定性模型可能为地下水源地划分带来的保护不足或过保护问题,探索采用基于正交拉丁超立方抽样法的地下水模型研究,并结合粒子反向追踪技术,进行地下水流随机模拟和对应保护区的概率统计分析,最终得到具有分布概率的保护区范围。为验证该方法的实用性与可靠性,选取北京市平谷区王都庄应急水源地进行实例应用研究。在考虑渗透系数和降雨补给量随机抽样组合基础上进行地下水流动随机模拟,并完成对应保护区划分和加权统计。与确定性模拟划分结果相对比:一级保护区中,确定性模拟划分结果仅相当于随机模拟结果中统计概率70%以上的范围;对于二级保护区,确定法对应保护面积相当于随机模拟结果中50%概率以上的范围。实例研究表明,基于正交拉丁超立方抽样的随机模拟法可完成多个不确定性输入变量条件下的随机模拟,且在小样本数的基础上获得理想结果,适用于复杂水文地质条件下的地下水源地保护区划分研究。 相似文献
14.
下地幔及核幔边界结构及地球动力学 总被引：9，自引：2，他引：9
新一代高分辨率下地幔及核幔边界的地震层析成像,改变了我们对全球构造模式及地球动力过程的认识。古海洋岩石圈板片一直俯冲到下地幔底部,其残留体在核幔边界积累,并支持了地幔整体对流模式。位于核幔边界上的D″层有着十分复杂而精细的结构。紧靠核幔边界的地幔一侧发现了超低速层(ULVZ),它们可能是D″层内的局部熔融物,是引起地表热点的上升地幔柱的源头。 相似文献
15.
《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part A: Solid Earth and Geodesy》1999,24(3):231-234
We study some effects that produce 3D topographical irregularities under incoming elastic waves from point sources using the indirect boundary element method. This technique is based on the representation of elastic waves in terms of single-layer boundary sources. In this way reflected and diffracted waves are constructed at the boundaries from where they are radiated by means of boundary sources. The field emited from the point source is computed with the moment tensor for a shear dislocation and analytical expressions of the elastodynamic 3D Green's functions. In this way we can construct a double couple with variable orientation. We compare the technique with that of Bouchon, who used the discrete wave number method for a shear dislocation in a halfspace with a triangular source function. We subsequently apply our method to simulate the seismic response of a mountain of ellipsoidal geometry. The source function that we have considered is a triangular pulse and we show results corresponding to the velocity registered over the surface of the irregularity and that of the halfspace. This motion is presented by means of snapshots showing the evolution of the wavefields that are present in the problem. 相似文献
16.
《Russian Geology and Geophysics》2015,56(7):1074-1082
We consider possible approaches to the long-term prediction for seismic hazard in relation to the practical need for the safety of geological disposal of long-lived radioactive waste. The required period of prediction significantly exceeds the one reflected in the set of maps of General Seismic Zoning of the territory of the Russian Federation (GSZ-97). The first geological repository in Russia is planned to be set up in the Nizhnii Kan granite massif in the Krasnoyarsk Krai. This region is an intraplate territory with a relatively high seismic activity. We summarize the analysis of the known empirical generalizations and theoretical principles underlying the seismic hazard prediction. Real seismic events constantly violate forward-looking statements even for relatively short periods of time. These and other arguments suggest that the hypothesis of stationarity of the seismic regime, which is the basis of long-term prediction today, has limited and uncertain applicability in time. Intraplate earthquake prediction is especially uncertain because of the uncertainty in the factor responsible for generating tectonic stresses in these regions. The short horizon of the prediction, based on statistical methods, can be attributed to the nonlinearity of seismic geodynamic processes. Fundamental laws of tectonic processes should be used as the scientific basis for long-term predictions for seismic hazard at the sites chosen for geological disposal of long-lived radioactive waste. These processes can be reflected in models for the migration of the seismically active boundaries of lithospheric plates and the occurrence of seismic activity in intraplate regions. 相似文献
17.
A probabilistic assessment of the seismic hazard in Turkey 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
18.
Advances in earthquake data acquisition and processing techniques have allowed for improved quantification of source parameters for local Australian earthquakes. Until recently, only hypocentral locations and local magnitudes (ML) had been determined routinely, with little attention given to the inversion of additional source parameters. The present study uses these new source data (e.g. seismic moment, stress drop, source dimensions) to further extend our understanding of seismicity and the continental stress regime of the Australian landmass and its peripheral regions.
Earthquake activity within Australia is typically low, and the proportion of small to large events (i.e. the b value) is also low. It is observed that average stress drops for southeastern Australian earthquakes appear to increase with seismic moment to relatively high levels, up to approximately 10 MPa for ML 5.0 earthquakes. This is thought to be indicative of high compressive crustal stress, coupled with strong rocks and fault asperities. Furthermore, the data indicates that shallow focus earthquakes (shallower than 6 km) appear to produce lower than average stress drops than deeper earthquakes (between 6 and 20 km) with similar moment.
Recurrence estimates were obtained for a discrete seismogenic zone in southeastern Australia. Decreasing b values with increasing focal depth for this zone indicate that larger earthquakes (with high stress drops) tend to occur deeper in the crust. This may offer an explanation for the apparent increase of stress drop with hypocentral depth. Consequently, earthquake hazard estimates that assume a uniform Gutenburg–Richter distribution with depth (i.e. constant b value) may be too conservative and therefore slightly overestimate seismic hazard for surface sites in southeastern Australia. 相似文献
19.
Shafiq Ur Rehman Muhammad Khalid Asif Ali Abd El-aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(9):3481-3492
Gwadar City is located at the coastline of Pakistan. The city is currently in a phase of development, which is expected to become a future economic hub for Pakistan. This has led us to choose Gwadar for seismic hazard evaluation. Seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis techniques. The present study will help in sustainable development of a future large city and economic hub for Pakistan on ways of coping from a major threat of earthquake hazard. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis, line sources were identified close to Gwadar. Based on the analysis of maximum magnitude and closest distance (worse conditions), Makran subduction zone was identified out of all the line sources with earthquake potential of 8.2 at a distance of 30 km. This yielded a peak ground acceleration value of 0.38 g for Gwadar City. In second phase, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique with the area source modeling was adopted to acquire results at different return periods. For this purpose, seismic data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and International Seismological Center (2010) databases for development of a comprehensive data catalog. The a and b values were obtained using regression analysis for each source zone, and probabilistic analysis yielded the results of 0.34 g for a return period of 500 years. As per building codes of Pakistan, areas or cities with ground acceleration greater than 0.32 g are considered in seismic zone 4, and both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis place the city in seismic zone 4. These values correspond to rock site with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s. 相似文献
20.
Generally the seismic hazard of an area of interest is considered independent of time. However, its seismic risk or vulnerability, respectively, increases with the population and developing state of economy of the area. Therefore, many areas of moderate seismic hazard gain increasing importance with respect to seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, these areas mostly have a weak earthquake database, i.e., they are characterised by relative low seismicity and uncertain information concerning historical earthquakes. In a case study for Eastern Thuringia (Germany), acting as example for similar places in the world, seismic hazard is estimated using the probabilistic approach. Because of the lack of earthquakes occurring in the recent past, mainly historical earthquakes have to be used. But for these the actual earthquake sources or active faults, needed for the analysis, are imprecisely known. Therefore, the earthquake locations are represented by areal sources, a common practice. The definition of these sources is performed carefully, because their geometrical shape and size (apart from the earthquake occurrence model) influence the results significantly. Using analysis tools such as density maps of earthquake epicentres, seismic strain and energy release support this. Oversizing of areal sources leads to underestimation of seismic hazard and should therefore be avoided. Large location errors of historical earthquakes on the other hand are represented by several alternative areal sources with final superimposition of the different results. In a very similar way information known from macroseismic observations interpreted as source rather than as site effects are taken into account in order to achieve a seismic hazard assessment as realistic as possible. In very local cases the meaning of source effects exceeds those of site effects very likely. The influence of attenuation parameter variations on the result of estimated local seismic hazard is relatively low. Generally, the results obtained by the seismic hazard assessment coincide well with macroseismic observations from the thoroughly investigated largest earthquake in the region. 相似文献