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1.
8.2 ka BP冷事件 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
王绍武 《气候变化研究进展》2008,4(3):193-194
全新世11.5 ka BP以来遭受的最强的一次冷事件是8.2 ka BP事件.全新世气候的基调是温暖湿润.但是,大量的古气候资料表明,全新世气候也有不稳定性[1],至今可能已发生过8～9次冷事件,8.2 kaBP事件就是其中的一次[2]. 相似文献
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TraCE-21ka是全球首个利用全耦合模式针对末次盛冰期(LGM)至今气候演变的瞬变模拟。利用现代再分析资料和历史特征时期重建的连续冻土边界对TraCE-21ka模拟做了评估。结果表明TraCE-21ka能够较好地模拟现代半球尺度环流和降水的空间形态,对东亚地区的模拟冬季较好而夏季欠佳。TraCE-21ka模拟的现代时期与再分析资料相比偏冷,北半球年平均表面温度比再分析资料低3～4 ℃,基于现代温度误差的分析表明TraCE-21ka对东亚地区气候演变的模拟欠佳。对于历史特征时期,重建的连续冻土边界线指示TraCE-21ka模拟的亚欧大陆在LGM偏暖,全新世中期偏冷,即低估了LGM以来的变温幅度。利用连续冻土边界线的年均表面温度约为-7 ℃这一特性,进一步定量评估出TraCE-21ka模拟的亚欧大陆中纬地区从LGM至今的升温幅度约为真实气候的40％。通过分析近百年全球升温速率证实TraCE-21ka的气候敏感性显著偏低,由此产生的误差在瞬变模拟中会不断累积。 相似文献
4.
Alexander Lorenz Hermann Held Eva Bauer Thomas Schneider von Deimling 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(5):719-734
Greenland ice-core data containing the 8.2 ka event are utilized by a model-data intercomparison within the Earth system model
of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2.3 to investigate their potential for constraining the range of uncertain ocean diffusivity
properties. Within a stochastic version of the model (Bauer et al. in Paleoceanography 19:PA3014, 2004) it has been possible to mimic the pronounced cooling of the 8.2 ka event with relatively good accuracy considering the timing
of the event in comparison to other modelling exercises. When statistically inferring from the 8.2 ka event on diffusivity
the technical difficulty arises to establish the related likelihood numerically per realisation of the uncertain model parameters:
while mainstream uncertainty analyses can assume a quasi-Gaussian shape of likelihood, with weather fluctuating around a long
term mean, the 8.2 ka event as a highly nonlinear effect precludes such an a priori assumption. As a result of this study
the Bayesian Analysis leads to a sharp single-mode likelihood for ocean diffusivity parameters within CLIMBER-2.3. Depending
on the prior distribution this likelihood leads to a reduction of uncertainty in ocean diffusivity parameters (e.g. for flat
prior uncertainty in the vertical ocean diffusivity parameter is reduced by factor 2). These results highlight the potential
of paleo data to constrain uncertain system properties and strongly suggest to make further steps with more complex models
and richer data sets to harvest this potential. 相似文献
5.
Simulation of paleoclimate over East Asia at 6 ka BP and 21 ka BP by a regional climate model 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Using a regional climate model with detailed land surface processes (RegCM2), East Asian monsoon climates at 6 ka BP and 21 ka BP are simulated by prescribing vegetation and employing paleovegetation respectively in order to examine land surface effects on East Asian climate system and the potential mechanisms for climate change. The RegCM2 with a 120 × 120 km2 resolution has simulated the enlargement of the seasonal cycle of insolation, the temperature rising the whole year, and the reduction of perpetual snow in high latitudes at 6 ka BP. The simulation shows the East Asian summer monsoon strengthening, precipitation and P–E increasing, and the monsoon rain belt shifting westwards and northwards. Effect of paleovegetation included in the modeling reduced surface albedo and caused an increase in the winter temperature, which led to weakening of the winter continental cold anticyclone over China. The results make the seasonal characteristics of simulated temperature changes in better agreement with the geological records, and are an improvement over previous simulations of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The RegCM2 simulated the 21 ka BP climate with lowered temperature throughout the year, and with precipitation reduced in most areas of East Asia (but increased in both the Tibetan Plateau and Central Asia). Low temperature over East Asia led to the strengthening of the East Asian winter monsoon and the shrinking of the summer monsoon. The effect of paleovegetation included in the experiment has enlarged the glacial climate influence in East Asia, which is closer to geological data than the PMIP simulations directly driven by insolation, glaciation and low CO2 concentration. 相似文献
6.
1. IntroductionAccording to the reconstruction of paleo-temperature based on δ18 O data of ice core in theGreenland (see Jouzel et al., 1987; Grootes et al.,1993; Blunier and Brook, 2001), the current inter-glacial epoch, the Holocene, began at ca. 11.5 thou-sand years before present (ka BP). Multiple sources(pollen data, macrofossils) reveal that the summer cli-mate in the Northern Hemisphere was warmer in theearly to middle Holocene (MH) (ca. 8-6ka BP) relativeto the present climate. … 相似文献
7.
A role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
We investigate the potential role of icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event, using a coupled climate model equipped with an iceberg component. First, we evaluate the effect of a large iceberg discharge originating from the decaying Laurentide ice sheet on ocean circulation, compared to a release of an identical volume of freshwater alone. Our results show that, on top of the freshwater effect, a large iceberg discharge facilitates sea-ice growth as a result of lower sea-surface temperatures induced by latent heat of melting. This causes an 8% increased sea-ice cover, 5% stronger reduction in North Atlantic Deep Water production and 1°C lower temperature in Greenland. Second, we use the model to investigate the effect of a hypothetical two-stage lake drainage, which is suggested by several investigators to have triggered the 8.2 ka climate event. To account for the final collapse of the ice-dam holding the Laurentide Lakes we accompany the secondary freshwater pulse in one scenario with a fast 5-year iceberg discharge and in a second scenario with a slow 100-year iceberg discharge. Our experiments show that a two-stage lake drainage accompanied by the collapsing ice-dam could explain the anomalies observed around the 8.2 ka climate event in various climate records. In addition, they advocate a potential role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event and illustrate the importance of latent heat of melting in the simulation of climate events that involve icebergs. Our two-stage lake drainage experiments provide a framework in the discussion of two-stage lake drainage and ice sheet collapse. 相似文献
8.
The sensitivity of the Late Saalian (140?ka) and LGM (21?ka) Eurasian ice sheets to sea surface conditions 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Florence Colleoni Johan Liakka Gerhard Krinner Martin Jakobsson Simona Masina Vincent Peyaud 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(3-4):531-553
This work focuses on the Late Saalian (140?ka) Eurasian ice sheets?? surface mass balance (SMB) sensitivity to changes in sea surface temperatures (SST). An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), forced with two preexisting Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21?ka) SST reconstructions, is used to compute climate at 140 and 21?ka (reference glaciation). Contrary to the LGM, the ablation almost stopped at 140?ka due to the climatic cooling effect from the large ice sheet topography. Late Saalian SST are simulated using an AGCM coupled with a mixed layer ocean. Compared to the LGM, these 140?ka SST show an inter-hemispheric asymmetry caused by the larger ice-albedo feedback, cooling climate. The resulting Late Saalian ice sheet SMB is smaller due to the extensive simulated sea ice reducing the precipitation. In conclusion, SST are important for the stability and growth of the Late Saalian Eurasian ice sheet. 相似文献
9.
P. J. Bartlein S. P. Harrison S. Brewer S. Connor B. A. S. Davis K. Gajewski J. Guiot T. I. Harrison-Prentice A. Henderson O. Peyron I. C. Prentice M. Scholze H. Seppä B. Shuman S. Sugita R. S. Thompson A. E. Viau J. Williams H. Wu 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(3-4):775-802
Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from 14C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing-season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern-analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance. 相似文献
10.
采用正交小波分解研究了近2 ka来青藏高原古里雅冰芯记录的气温和冰川积累量演变多尺度特征,得到了与构成序列中主要气候事件对应的尺度分量。用130 a尺度以上分量几乎可以重建冰芯记录中的主要冷暖或干湿气候事件。平均而言,温度和冰川积累量配置在大多数时间尺度上都呈正相关,即暖湿/冷干配置,但在130 a尺度上是负相关,即冷湿/暖干配置。20世纪以来的快速增暖增湿发生在260 a尺度上。线性增暖趋势和千年尺度分量都是暖湿/冷干配置并占有较大的方差,它们在很大程度上左右着百年尺度上的温湿配置。二者的结合直接导致千年尺度上温湿配置在8世纪出现由冷湿/暖干向暖湿/冷干气候型的转变。 相似文献
11.
Amy J. Wagner Carrie Morrill Bette L. Otto-Bliesner Nan Rosenbloom Kelsey R. Watkins 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2855-2873
Previous model experiments of the 8.2 ka event forced by the drainage of Lake Agassiz often do not produce climate anomalies as long as those inferred from proxies. In addition to the Agassiz forcing, there is new evidence for significant amounts of freshwater entering the ocean at 8.2 ka from the disintegration of the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS). We use the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) to test the contribution of this additional meltwater flux. Similar to previous model experiments, we find that the estimated freshwater forcing from Lake Agassiz is capable of sustaining ocean and climate anomalies for only two to three decades, much shorter than the event duration of ~150 years in proxies. Using new estimates of the LIS freshwater flux (~0.13 Sv for 100 years) from the collapse of the Hudson Bay ice dome in addition to the Agassiz drainage, the CCSM3 generates climate anomalies with a magnitude and duration that match within error those from proxies. This result is insensitive to the duration of freshwater release, a major uncertainty, if the total volume remains the same. An analysis of the modeled North Atlantic freshwater budget indicates that the Agassiz drainage is rapidly transported out of the North Atlantic while the LIS contribution generates longer-lasting freshwater anomalies that are also subject to recirculation by the subtropical gyre back into the North Atlantic. Thus, the meltwater flux originating from the LIS appears to be more important than the Agassiz drainage in generating 8.2 ka climate anomalies and is one way to reconcile some model-data discrepancies. 相似文献
12.
Abrupt Climate Change around 4 ka BP： Role of the Thermohaline Circulation as Indicated by a GCM Experiment 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8
A great deal of palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic evidence suggests that a predominant tem-perature drop and an aridification occurred at ca. 4.0 ka BP. Palaeoclimate studies in China support thisdedution. The collapse of ancient civilizations at ca. 4.0 ka BP in the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia hasbeen attributed to climate-induced aridification. A widespread alternation of the ancient cultures was alsofound in China at ca. 4.0 ka BP in concert with the collapse of the civilizations in the Old World. Palaeo-climatic studies indicate that the abrupt climate change at 4.0 ka BP is one of the realizations of the coldphase in millennial scale climate oscillations, which may be related to the modulation of the ThermohalineCirculation (THC) over the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, this study conducts a numerical experiment ofa GCM with SST forcing to simulate the impact of the weakening of the THC. Results show a drop intemperature from North Europe, the northern middle East Asia, and northern East Asia and a significantreduction of precipitation in East Africa, the Middle East, the Indian Peninsula, and the Yellow RiverValley. This seems to support the idea that coldness and aridification at ca. 4.0 ka BP was caused by theweakening of the THC. 相似文献