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1.
An early estimate for the size of cycle 23   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Two features are found in the modern era sunspot record (cycles 10–22: ca. 1850-present) that may prove useful for gauging the size of cycle 23, the next sunspot cycle, several years ahead of its actual onset. These features include an inferred long-term increase against time of maximum amplitude (RM, the maximum value of smoothed sunspot number for a cycle) and the apparently inherent differing natures of even- and odd-numbered sunspot cycles, especially when grouped consecutively as even-odd cycle pairs. Concerning the first feature, one finds that 6 out of the last 6 sunspot cycles have had RM 110.6 (the median value for the modern era record) and that 4 out of 6 have had RM > 150. Presuming this trend to continue, one anticipates that cycle 23 will likewise have RM 110.6 and, perhaps, RM > 150. Concerning the second feature, one finds that, when one groups sunspot cycles into consecutively paired even-odd cycles, the odd-following cycle has always been the larger cycle, 6 out of 6 times. Because cycle 22 had RM = 158.5, one anticipates that cycle 23 will have RM > 158.5. Additionally, because the average difference between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles is 40.3 units (sd = 14.2), one expects cycle 23 to have RM 162.3 (RM = 198.8 ± 36.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Further, because of the rather strong linear correlation (r = 0,959, se = 13.5) found between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles, one infers that cycle 23 should have RM 176.4 (RM = 213.9 ± 37.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Since large values of RM tend to be associated with fast rising cycles of short ascent duration and high levels of 10.7-cm solar radio flux, cycle 23 is envisioned to be potentially one of the greatest cycles of the modern era, if not the greatest.  相似文献   

2.
A detailed abundance analysis of the Hg–Mn star And is carried out with the method of fine analysis based on high-dispersion spectrograms obtained at the Haute Provence Observatory. In the derivation of effective temperature, we have considered the spectral energy distribution from far UV to the near IR, the line blanketing in the UV region and the reddening of And. The observed energy distribution, manganese ionization equilibrium and hydrogen-line profiles indicate that the atmosphere can be represented by a model withT eff=13850350 K, logg=3.850.15 (in CGS) and with =3.00.5 km s–1. Our analysis shows that the abundances of C and Si are normal; Mg, S, and Fe slightly overabundant; and P, Mn, Ga, Sr, Y, Zr, Eu, and Hg are considerably overabundant by 2.02, 2.68, 5.48, 1.13, 3.70, 3.35, 4.40, and 6.02 dex, respectively, relative to the solar values. A comparison of our abundances with those by others shows large discrepancies.A discussion of the atmospheric structure of And suggests that the star has a circumstellar envelope, and that there is some contribution to the observed spectrum from that envelope.On leave of absence from the Dept. of Astronomy, Faculty of Sciences, University of Ankara, Ankara, Turkey.  相似文献   

3.
Statistically significant correlations exist between the size (maximum amplitude) of the sunspot cycle and, especially, the maximum value of the rate of rise during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, where the rate of rise is computed either as the difference in the month-to-month smoothed sunspot number values or as the average rate of growth in smoothed sunspot number from sunspot minimum. Based on the observed values of these quantities (equal to 10.6 and 4.63, respectively) as of early 1989, one infers that cycle 22's maximum amplitude will be about 175 ± 30 or 185 ± 10, respectively, where the error bars represent approximately twice the average error found during cycles 10–21 from the two fits.  相似文献   

4.
Kane  R.P. 《Solar physics》2001,202(2):395-406
For solar cycle 23, the maximum sunspot number was predicted by several workers, and the range was very wide, 80–210. Cycle 23 started in 1996 and seems to have peaked in 2000, with a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 122. From about 20 predictions, 8 were within 122±20. There is an indication that a long-term oscillation of 80–100 years may be operative and might have peaked near cycle 20 (1970), and sunspot maxima in cycles in the near future may be smaller and smaller for the next 50 years or so and rebound thereafter in the next 50 years or so.  相似文献   

5.
Because of the bimodal distribution of sunspot cycle periods, the Hale cycle (or double sunspot cycle) should show evidence of modulation between 20 and 24 yr, with the Hale cycle having an average length of about 22 yr. Indeed, such a modulation is observed. Comparison of consecutive pairs of cycles strongly suggests that even-numbered cycles are preferentially paired with odd-numbered following cycles. Systematic variations are hinted in both the Hale cycle period and R sum (the sum of monthly mean sunspot numbers over consecutively paired sunspot cycles). The preferred even-odd cycle pairing suggests that cycles 22 and 23 form a new Hale cycle pair (Hale cycle 12), that cycle 23 will be larger than cycle 22 (in terms of R M, the maximum smoothed sunspot number, and of the individual cycle value of R sum), and that the length of Hale cycle 12 will be longer than 22 yr. Because of the strong correlation (r = 0.95) between individual sunspot cycle values of R sum and R M, having a good estimate of R Mfor the present sunspot cycle (22) allows one to predict its R sum, which further allows an estimation of both R Mand R sum for cycle 23 and an estimation of R sum for Hale cycle 12. Based on Wilson's bivariate fit (r = 0.98), sunspot cycle 22 should have an R Mequal to 144.4 ± 27.3 (at the 3- level), implying that its R sum should be about 8600 ± 2200; such values imply that sunspot cycle 23 should have an R sum of about 10500 ± 2000 and an R Mof about 175 ± 40, and that Hale cycle 12 should have an R sum of about 19100 ± 3000.  相似文献   

6.
Extrema in Sunspot Cycle Linked to Sun's Motion   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Landscheidt  Theodor 《Solar physics》1999,189(2):413-424
Partitions of 178.8-year intervals between instances of retrograde motion in the Sun's oscillation about the center of mass of the solar system seem to provide synchronization points for the timing of minima and maxima in the 11-year sunspot cycle. In the investigated period 1632–1990, the statistical significance of the relationship goes beyond the level P=0.001. The extrapolation of the observed pattern points to sunspot maxima around 2000.6 and 2011.8. If a further connection with long-range variations in sunspot intensity proves reliable, four to five weak sunspot cycles (R0) are to be expected after cycle 23 with medium strength (R100).  相似文献   

7.
The period-growth dichotomy of the solar cycle predicts that cycle 21, the present solar cycle, will be of long duration (>133 mo), ending after July 1987. Bimodality of the solar cycle (i.e., cycles being distributed into two groups according to cycle length, based on a comparison to the mean cycle period) is clearly seen in a scatter diagram of descent versus ascent durations. Based on the well-observed cycles 8–20, a linear fit for long-period cycles (being a relatively strong inverse relationship that is significant at the 5% level and having a coefficient of determination r 2 0.66) suggests that cycle 21, having an ascent of 42 mo, will have a descent near 99 mo; thus, cycle duration of about 141 mo is expected. Like cycle 11, cycle 21 occurs on the downward envelope of the sunspot number curve, yet is associated with an upward first difference in amplitude. A comparison of individual cycle, smoothed sunspot number curves for cycles 21 and 11 reveals striking similarity, which suggests that if, indeed, cycle 21 is a long-period cycle, then it too may have an extended tail of sustained, low, smoothed sunspot number, with cycle 22 minimum occurring either in late 1987 or early 1988.  相似文献   

8.
The zonal structure of the distribution of filaments is considered. The mean latitudes of two filament bands are calculated in each solar hemisphere at the minima of the sunspot cycle in the period 1924–1986: middle latitude 2, m and low latitude 1, m . It is shown that the mean latitude of the filament band 2, m at the minimum -m of the cycle correlates, with = 0.94, with the maximum - M sunspot area S(M) and maximum Wolf number W(M) in the succeeding solar cycle M. It is shown that the mean latitude of the low-latitude filament band 1, m is linearly dependent on the mean latitude filament band 2, m + 1 at the succeeding minimum. We found a correlation of the latitude of the low-latitude filament band 1, m with the maximum sunspot area in the M + 1 cycle. This enables us to predict the power of two succeeding 11-year solar cycles on the basis of the latitude of filament bands at the minimum of activity, 1985–1986: W(22) - 205 ± 10, W(23) - 210 ± 10. The importance of the relationships found for theory and applied aspects is emphasized. An attempt is made to interpret the relationships physically.  相似文献   

9.
The average rate of growth during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, defined here as the difference in smoothed sunspot number values between elapsed time (in months) t and sunspot minimum divided by t, is shown to correlate (r 0.78) with the size of the sunspot cycle, especially for t 18 months. Also, the maximum value of the average rate of growth is shown to highly correlate (r = 0.98) with the size of the cycle. Based on the first 18 months of the cycle, cycle 22 is projected to have an R(M) = 186.0 ± 27.2 (at the ± 1 level), and based on the first 24 months of the cycle, it is projected to have an R(M) = 201.0 ± 20.1 (at the ± 1 level). Presently, the average rate of growth is continuing to rise, having a value of about 4.5 at 24 months into the cycle, a value second only to that of cycle 19 (4.8 at t = 24 and a maximum value of 5.26 at t = 27). Using 4.5 as the maximum value of the average rate of growth for cycle 22, a lower limit can be estimated for R(M); namely R(M) for cycle 22 is estimated to be 164.0 (at the 97.5% level of confidence). Thus, these findings are consistent with the previous single variate predictions that project R(M) for cycle 22 to be one of the greatest on record, probably larger than cycle 21 (164.5) and near that of cycle 19 (201.3).  相似文献   

10.
High resolution spectra of six photospheric Eu ii lines have been studied using the method of spectrum synthesizing. The isotope ratio is found to be Eu153/Eu151 = (48 ± 6)/(52 6) and the solar abundance of europium equals log Eu = 0.7 ± 0.2 in the log H = 12.00 scale.  相似文献   

11.
Verdes  P.F.  Parodi  M.A.  Granitto  P.M.  Navone  H.D.  Piacentini  R.D.  Ceccatto  H.A. 《Solar physics》2000,191(2):419-425
Two nonlinear methods are employed for the prediction of the maximum amplitude for solar cycle 23 and its declining behavior. First, a new heuristic method based on the second derivative of the (conveniently smoothed) sunspot data is proposed. The curvature of the smoothed sunspot data at cycle minimum appears to correlate (R 0.92) with the cycle's later-occurring maximum amplitude. Secondly, in order to predict the near-maximum and declining activity of solar cycle 23, a neural network analysis of the annual mean sunspot time series is also performed. The results of the present study are then compared with some other recent predictions.  相似文献   

12.
Patrick C. Crane 《Solar physics》1998,177(1-2):243-253
Fourier analysis (DFT/CLEAN) of the international sunspot number (R) series since 1932 has revealed two long (250–500 days) and distinct episodes of solar activity exhibiting persistent 13 -day variations. The first episode lasts 500 days near the maximum of solar cycle 20, and the second, 250 days near the end of the current solar cycle 22. The solar radio flux density (F 10_7cm) series since 1947 has also been analyzed. During the first episode both solar indices exhibit distinct 27- and 13-day variations (the first report of 13-day variations in F 10_7cm). During the second episode neither index exhibits distinct 27-day variations and only R exhibits 13-day variations. Conditions affecting the appearance of 13-day variations in F 10_7cm are discussed.  相似文献   

13.
The latitudinal distribution of sunspot groups over a solar cycle is investigated. Although individual sunspot groups of a solar cycle emerge randomly at any middle and low latitude, the whole latitudinal distribution of sunspot groups of the cycle is not stochastic and, in fact, can be represented by a probability density function of the distribution having maximum probability at about 15.5°. The maximum amplitude of a solar cycle is found to be positively correlated against the number of sunspot groups at high latitude (35°) over the cycle, as well as the mean latitude. Also, the relation between the asymmetry of sunspot groups and its latitude is investigated, and a pattern of the N-S asymmetry in solar activity is suggested.  相似文献   

14.
Makarov  V.I.  Tlatov  A.G.  Sivaraman  K.R. 《Solar physics》2003,214(1):41-54
We have defined the duration of polar magnetic activity as the time interval between two successive polar reversals. The epochs of the polarity reversals of the magnetic field at the poles of the Sun have been determined (1) by the time of the final disappearance of the polar crown filaments and (2) by the time between the two neighbouring reversals of the magnetic dipole configuration (l=1) from the H synoptic charts covering the period 1870–2001. It is shown that the reversals for the magnetic dipole configuration (l=1) occur on an average 3.3±0.5 years after the sunspot minimum according to the H synoptic charts (Table I) and the Stanford magnetograms (Table III). If we set the time of the final disappearance of the polar crown filaments (determined from the latitude migration of filaments) as the criterion for deciding the epoch of the polarity reversal of the polar fields, then the reversal occurs on an average 5.8±0.6 years from sunspot minimum (last column of Table I). We consider this as the most reliable diagnostic for fixing the epoch of reversals, as the final disappearance of the polar crown filaments can be observed without ambiguity. We show that shorter the duration of the polar activity cycle (i.e., the shorter the duration between two neighbouring reversals), the more intense is the next sunspot cycle. We also notice that the duration of polar activity is always more in even solar cycles than in odd cycles whereas the maximum Wolf numbers W \max is always higher for odd solar cycles than for even cycles. Furthermore, we assume there is a secular change in the duration of the polar cycle. It has decreased by 1.2 times during the last 120 years.  相似文献   

15.
From theH filtergram observations obtained at Ganyu station, identification and statistic works made for Ellerman bombs, it is found that they often occur in the superpenumbra area of a mature sunspot. We suggest a plasmoid model to account for the basic properties of a typical bomb: lifetime 11 min, diameter 5 × 107 cm, accompanying jet velocity 40 km/s, total energy 1027 erg,Te 104 K. First, a numerical simulation is made to prove that plasmoids can be lifted from the solar convective zone by magnetic buoyancy. Between the plasmoid and its surroundings a strong current sheet builds up in which a peculiar MHD (with plasma ponderamotive force) - resistive instability takes place. After the magnetic reconnection has begun, a local explosive instability ensues whose growth rate is so high that it allows the exhaustion of the high temperature particles from the sheet in a short period. In this way, the temperature of a bomb may be kept unchanged or only rise slightly.  相似文献   

16.
In order to study the structure of a chemically homogeneous star in equilibrium, a density profile of the form T N exp(–µm(–)/kT) is suggested. As for polytropes, qualitative aspects of the resulting stellar model can be discussed analytically. In particular it is shown that one reobtains forN=3 Eddington's standard model, whereas forN<3 nearly polytropic models result. WhenN>3, the effective polytropic index does vary appreciably over the star. Numerical results indicate that the proposed density profile is quite reasonable in view of the simplicity of the model. From a comparison of the degree of precision of a polytropic approximation with that of the newly proposed model it follows that the new approximation is definitely better than the polytropic one. It is suggested that the model may be useful to study the structure of stellar clouds, clusters and (spherical) galaxies.Now at Department of Applied Mathematics, Queen Mary College, University of London, England.  相似文献   

17.
Jain  Rajmal 《Solar physics》1997,176(2):431-437
A few prediction methods have been developed using the precursor techniques and are found to be successful. On the basis of geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding cycle, we have established an expression which predicts the maximum annual mean sunspot number in cycle 23 to be 166.2. This indicates that cycle 23 would be a highly active and historic cycle. The average geomagnetic activity aa index during the ascending phase of cycle 23 would be about 24.9, comparable to 22.2 and 24.8 in cycles 21 and 22, respectively. This further indicates that during the ascending phase of cycle 23 energetic two-ribbon flares will be produced so as to give rise to strong proton events.  相似文献   

18.
Roy  J. -René 《Solar physics》1977,52(1):53-61
The north-south incidence has been studied of 31 white-light flares observed since 1859 and of 1669 events meeting the criteria for major flares of Dodson and Hedeman (1971) for the period 1955–1974. The asymmetry in favor of the northern hemisphere increases strikingly with the importance of the events. Similarly, magnetically complex sunspot groups (Mt. Wilson classes, and) display a more pronounced asymmetry in favor of the north than non-complex groups for 1962–1970. Contrary to the flare asymmetry, the spottedness asymmetry is independent of the size of sunspots.  相似文献   

19.
Correlated with the maximum amplitude (R max) of the sunspot cycle are the sum (R sum) and the mean (R mean) of sunspot number over the duration of the cycle, having a correlation coefficient r equal to 0.925 and 0.960, respectively. Runs tests of R max, R sum, and R mean for cycles 0–21 have probabilities of randomness P equal to 6.3, 1.2, and 9.2%, respectively, indicating a tendency for these solar-cycle related parameters to be nonrandomly distributed. The past record of these parameters can be described using a simple two-parameter secular fit, one parameter being an 8-cycle modulation (the so-called Gleissberg cycle or long period) and the other being a long-term general (linear) increase lasting tens of cycles. For each of the solar-cycle related parameters, the secular fit has an r equal to about 0.7–0.8, implying that about 50–60% of the variation in R max, R sum, and R mean can be accounted for by the variation in the secular fit.Extrapolation of the two-parameter secular fit of R max to cycle 22 suggests that the present cycle will have an R max = 74.5 ± 49.0, where the error bar equals ± 2 standard errors; hence, the maximum amplitude for cycle 22 should be lower than about 125 when sunspot number is expressed as an annual average or it should be lower than about 130 when sunspot number is expressed as a smoothed (13-month running mean) average. The long-term general increase in sunspot number appears to have begun about the time of the Maunder minimum, implying that the 314-yr periodicity found in ancient varve data may not be a dominant feature of present sunspot cycles.  相似文献   

20.
The purpose of the present article is to analyze the solar cycles from the point of view of the large-scale surface magnetic field (LSMF) polarity distributions. Using synoptic charts of the LSMF for the 1870–1991 time interval at maxima and minima and the spherical harmonic analysis of the polarity distributions, a connection between magnetic cycles has been found. The weight of the large-scale sectoral mode (m = 1) in the common LSMF polarity distribution at minima of the sunspot cycle is the source of sunspot activity at maxima after 16–18 years. The connections found suggest that surface LSMFs have a dual nature - the main source below the convective zone and a secondary source (sunspot production). The sunspot production has no visible influence on the LSMF cycles.  相似文献   

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