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《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1996,(4)
Ai Wanxiu 09一2一06.每Bai Lesheng 07一4一01Bai Yuerning 09一4一11Bailey,W.G.06一2一06Bian Huisheng 07一3一02Bian Lingen 09一1一12Bougeault PhilipPe 07一1一01,07一2一09BOurke,W.04一1一04Chen Xiaoyuan 04一l一12ChenX一ng 02一3一07Chen Yanjuan 01一1一12Chen Yi一Leng 06一3一08Chen Yinsheng 06一3一02Chen Zhenhua 01一1一08Chen Zhonglian 04一2一13Cheng Linsheng 06一2一10Cheng Qiuying 02一3一09Chennl〕elin 02一1一13Cho,H. R.06一3一05Chou Jifan 01一l一05,03一5一05, .09一2一12.09一3一03Co… 相似文献
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GM(1,1)模型是灰色系统理论的核心预测模型,对GM(1,1)模型的建模条件进行研究是提高模拟精度的基础.采用理论证明和数值算例相结合的方法对GM(1,1)模型的建模条件进行研究,拓展了经典灰色预测模型的级比判定条件.结果表明:当原始序列的累加序列值都相等时,发展系数不存在;提高原始序列光滑度不是提高模拟精度的充分条件. 相似文献
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《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1996,(4)
01一1一01(Year 1 987) Xie Yibing(谢义炳).The Oseillation of Certain ZonalMean Charaeteristies of Motzon on a Spherie Earth’sAtmospheretl一9 01一l一02 Liao Dongx亏an‘廖洞贤、et al.Sy~etrie andAsymmetrie Motions in the Barorropie Filtered ModelAtmosPhere.10一19 01一1一03 Xu Yinzi(徐银梓)et al.,The Adjustment of Wind toEkmen Flow within the Planeta即BOundary Layer.20一25 01一1一04 Zhang JIJia丈章基嘉)et al二An Objeetive Seheme forLong一Range FOreeasts,26一33 01一l一05 Qiu Chong… 相似文献
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《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1996,(4)
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES GENERAL 01一2一10二,02一l一14.02一2一07.02-4一14.03一1,14.03一4一12,04一4一0104一4一03.06一4一13 07一3一11.09一3-1 1.09一3一123一04.07一4一06 08一3一07.08一3一0808一4一13.10一1一10.10一3一0609 10一4一1010一4-WEATHER FORECASTING &MODIFICATIONRADIATION ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS ATMOSPHERIC PROBINO 压EQUIPM它NT 01一1一12,01一1一15.01一2一06.02一2一07.03一l一07,03一5一08.04一1-10.04一3一02.05一3一01 05一3一02.05-3一03.05一3一04,05一3一05,05… 相似文献
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Oliver Krueger Frauke Feser Lars Bärring Eigil Kaas Torben Schmith Heikki Tuomenvirta Hans von Storch 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(3-4):1127-1128
The main subject of this article is to comment on the issue of storminess trends derived from the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) and from observations in the North Atlantic region written about in Wang et al. (Clim Dyn 40(11–12):2775–2800, 2012). The statement that the 20CR estimates would be consistent with storminess derived from pressure-based proxies does not hold for the time prior to 1950. 相似文献
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本讲介绍如何在图上进行A.I.D.的分类筛选预报,它的优点是避免了计算,利用和天气预报中常用的点聚图方法相类似的画法,就可以作出预报。现用一个实例来说明。 考虑长江中下游汉口、九江、芜湖、南京、上海五站平均5—8月降水总量(y),选用了1952—1976年25年资料用五个气象要素作为因子。 因子:x_1是一月0—150°E,45—65°N的纬向指数I_z, x_2是一月份欧洲大型环流型C型天数, x_3是一月份长江流域六站降水量∑R_1月, x_4是一月份长江流域六站温度∑月, 相似文献
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第七讲的方法,如果不是用极差进行分割,而是用变差进行分割,就成为一般书上所说的A.I.D.方法(筛选因子的一个新方法)。实际上,A.I.D.方法仅仅是最优分割法的一种灵活运用。为了能比较清楚地说明这一点,我们就依照一般书上的写法来介绍A.I.D.方法,然后,再说明它与最优分割法的关系。 相似文献
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The Moberg et al. (Nature 433(7026):613–617, 2005. doi:10.1038/nature03265; M05) reconstruction of northern hemisphere temperature variations from proxy data has been criticised; the M05 method may artificially inflate low-frequency variance relative to reality. We test this assertion by undertaking several pseudoproxy experiments in three climate model simulations—one control run and two forced simulations that include several time-varying radiative forcings. The pseudoproxy series are designed to have the same variance spectra as the real M05 proxies, primarily to mimic the low-resolution character of several series. A simple composite-plus-scale (CPS) method is also analysed. In the CPS case all input data behave like annually resolved proxies. The spectral domain performance of both M05 and CPS is found to be dependent on the noise type and noise level in pseudoproxies, on the variance spectrum of the climate model simulation, and on the degree of data smoothing. CPS performs better than M05 in most investigated cases with the control run, but leads to deflated low-frequency variance in some cases. With M05, low-frequency variance tend to be inflated for the control run but not for one of the forced runs and only very slightly with the other forced simulation. Hence, the M05 approach does not routinely inflate low-frequency variance. In our experiment, the M05 approach performs better in the spectral domain than CPS when applied to forced climate model simulations. The results underscore the importance of evaluating the variance spectrum of climate reconstructions. 相似文献
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1992年1-2月,全疆各地偏暖,是继1986年以来的连续第7个暖冬;全疆大部地区降水偏少,积雪偏薄;北疆西部地区各旬气温变化较大;较强冷空气入侵次数少于常年. 一、月平均气温和月总降水量 1.月平均气温继去年12月份月平均气温偏高之后,今年1月份,北疆各地、东疆地区、吐鄯托盆地和焉耆盆地月平均气温继续偏高(图略).北疆 相似文献
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The neutrally stratified flow over the Askervein Hill was simulatedusing a terrain-following coordinatesystem and a two-equation(k - ) turbulence model. Calculations were performed on awide range of numerical grids to assess, among other things, theimportance of spatial discretization and the limitations of theturbulence model. Our results showed that a relatively coarse gridwas enough to resolve the flow in the upstream region of the hill;at the hilltop, 10 m above the ground, the speed-up was 10% lessthan the experimental value. The flow's most prominent feature wasa recirculating region in the lee of the hill, which determinedthe main characteristics of the whole downstream flow. This regionhad an intermittent nature and could be fully captured only in the caseof a time-dependent formulation and a third-order discretization ofthe advective terms. The reduction of the characteristic roughnessnear the top of the hill was also taken into account, showing theimportance of this parameter, particularly in the flow close to theground at the summit and in the downstream side of the hill.Calculations involving an enlarged area around the Askervein Hillshowed that the presence of the nearby topography affected the flowneither at the top nor downstream of the Askervein Hill. 相似文献
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A. Richter M. Eisinger A. Ladstätter-weißenmayer J.P. Burrows 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1999,32(1):83-99
Zenith sky observations of BrO over Bremen (53°N) are reported for the period of September 1994 to January 1996. BrO differential slant columns between 90° and 80° solar zenith angle showed a strong seasonal variation between a winter maximum of 1.9·1014 molec/cm2 and a summer minimum of 0.6·1014 molec/cm2. The seasonal variation in BrO twilight values is shown to be inversely correlated with NO2 columns in agreement with current knowledge of gas phase chemistry of bromine. In contrast to model predictions, no significant difference between morning and evening BrO measurements was observed. During a 6 day polar vortex excursion to mid-latitudes OClO could be measured above Bremen indicating chlorine activation in the vortex air. No significant increase in BrO differential slant columns was detected during this time. 相似文献
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D. Klemp D. Kley F. Kramp H. J. Buers G. Pilwat F. Flocke H. W. Pätz A. Volz-Thomas 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1997,28(1-3):135-171
Long-term measurements of light hydrocarbons(C2–C5 HCs) were performed in the courseof the EUROTRAC sub-project TOR (Tropospheric Ozone Research) in thesouthern part of the Black Forest in southwest Germany. The measurementscover a time period of five years (January 1989–January 1994) and theair samples were analyzed onsite by an automated GC-system. Pronouncedannual cycles with maxima in late winter and minima in late summer wereobserved in the case of the slowly reacting hydrocarbons ethane, propane andacetylene, reflecting the fact that the seasonal variation of these speciesis photochemically driven. For the shorter lived compounds the seasonalvariations are considerably weaker, connected with a stronger scatter of theindividual measurements, which is caused by different distances to theirmain sources for different wind vectors as well as by varying sourcestrengths. From a detailed characterization of the hydrocarbon patterns theinfluence of two different sources could be distinguished. An extrapolationto photochemical age of zero and completion of our data with those from aspeciated VOC inventory yields an estimated [VOC]/NOx sourceratio for Schauinsland of 5 [ppbC/ppb]. Comparable[VOC]/NOx ratios are observed in automobile exhaust gasesunder low speed conditions, which points to the important role of trafficunder conditions, when freshly polluted air masses from a near-by city areadvected to the site. From an investigation of the photochemical age of theadvected air masses it becomes clear that there must exist biogenic sourcesof light olefins in the vicinity of the observatory during the vegetationperiod. For propene and the butenes we are able to estimate a lower limit oftheir contributions in terms of reactivity to the total reactivity( [HC](i) k_OH(i),i=C2-C5) of the measured hydrocarbons. Forlowest pollution levels in summer (acetylene <300 ppt, about 40%of the summer values) this source is found to be responsible for15–20% of the total C2–C5reactivity observed at Schauinsland. On the average, this source accountsfor 5–10% of the total C2–C5reactivity. 相似文献
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Filippo Giorgi Linda O. Mearns Christine Shields Larry McDaniel 《Climatic change》1998,40(3-4):457-493
A nested regional climate model is used to generate a scenario of climate change over the MINK region (Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas) due to doubling of carbon dioxide concentration (2 × CO2) for use in agricultural impact assessment studies. Five-year long present day (control) and 2 × CO2 simulations are completed at a horizontal grid point spacing of 50 km. Monthly and seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature over the MINK region are reproduced well by the model in the control run, except for an underestimation of both variables during the spring months. The performance of the nested model in the control run is greatly improved compared to a similar experiment performed with a previous version of the nested modeling system by Giorgi et al. (1994). The nested model generally improves the simulation of spatial precipitation patterns compared to the driving general circulation model (GCM), especially during the summer. Seasonal surface warming of 4 to 6 K and seasonal precipitation increases of 6 to 24% are simulated in 2 × CO2 conditions. The control run temperature biases are smaller than the simulated changes in all seasons, while the precipitation biases are of the same order of magnitude as the simulated changes. Although the large scale patterns of change in the driving GCM and nested RegCM model are similar, significant differences between the models, and substantial spatial variability, occur within the MINK region. 相似文献