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1.
Climate change has significantly affected hydrological processes and increased the frequency and severity of water shortage, droughts and floods in northeast China. A study has been conducted to quantify the influence of climate change on the hydrologic process in the Tao'er River Basin(TRB), one of the most prominent regions in northeast China for water contradiction. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model was calibrated and validated with observed land use and hydro-climatic data and then employed for runoff simulations at upper, middle and lower reaches of the river basin for different climate change scenarios. The results showed that a gradual increase in temperature and decrease in annual precipitation in the basin was projected for the period 2020-2050 for both representative concentration pathways(RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The climate changes would cause a decrease in annual average runoff at basin outlet by 12 and 23 million m3 for RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The future runoff in the upstream and midstream of the basin during 2020-2050 would be-10.8% and-12.1% lower than the observed runoff compared to the base period for RCP4.5, while those would be-5.3% and-10.7% lower for RCP8.5. The future runoff will decrease at three hydrology stations for the assumed future climate scenarios. The results can help us understand the future temperature and precipitation trends and the hydrological cycle process under different climate change scenarios, and provide the basis for the rational allocation and management of water resources under the influence of future climate change in the TRB.  相似文献   

2.
淮河流域是水体遭受营养盐污染较严重的地区,本研究选择淮河上游的淮滨流域（淮滨站以上,流域面积1.6万km2）为研究对象,首先构建了淮滨流域SWAT水文水质模型,然后利用2011—2017年淮滨站实测的月径流和月氨氮浓度对SWAT模型进行了校正与验证,最后基于全球气候模型（GCM）气象数据,预测了未来30年（2020—2029年、2030—2039年、2040—2049年）不同气候变化情境（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0、RCP8.5）下的径流、氨氮浓度和非点源总氮负荷。结果发现,径流在校正期和验证期的Nash-Suttcliffe系数均为0.79,氨氮在校正期和验证期的Nash-Suttcliffe系数均高于0.5,表明模型的适用性良好。研究发现本研究区施肥量与土地利用类型是非点源氮负荷空间分异的主导因素。2020—2049年,不同气候变化情景下,本研究区的降水量和气温均为增长趋势。假如保持基准期（2011—2016年）污染排放强度,仅考虑气候变化影响,流域内非点源污染总氮负荷将比基准期最多增加31.8%,流域出水口淮滨站的年均氨氮浓度将最多减小42.6%。本研究可以为气候变化下淮滨流域的水文水质管理提供科学支撑。  相似文献   

3.
Rapid climate change has provided the opportunity for many species to learn to adapt fast enough to modify their range distribution. The positive and negative responses of the species in terms of distribution are related to parameters such as kind of species, degree of specialization, size and movement skills, and such factors. Moving to high elevations and transitions to higher latitudes are among the strategies proposed as a solution to the negative effects of climate change. Therefore, predicting how different species respond to climate change can help predict the conservation program for them. Species distribution models(SDMs) are widely used to predict the geographical distribution of habitat suitability and species occurrence. Rhinopoma muscatellum is one of the three mousetailed bats(Rhinopomatidae) inhabiting the southeastern, southern, and southwestern parts of Iran and its distribution range to the interior and northern parts of Iran has been limited by the Elburz and Zagros Mountain. To study the effect of climate change on this species, range shifts and coverage of protected regions, 74 presence points and environmental variables(climate, topography, anthropogenic, and vegetation) in MaxEnt software were used. Before the implementation of the model, the autocorrelation of the presence points was reduced and the selection of pseudo absent points was limited by using the bias grid. Climate variables were prepared for Mid-Holocene, Current, Climate Current, and Future scenarios in 2070(RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5). In order to evaluate the overlap of ecological niche, the Schoener's D and I statistic metrics were used. Also, to measure the breadth of the niches, B1(inverse concentration) and B2(uncertainty) metrics in ENMTOOLS software were employed. TSS statistics were used as a threshold. Species distribution trend changes in climatic scenarios were performed by the Mann Kendall(MK) test. Based on the results, the AUC values for current and future climate models were calculated to be 0.89 and 0.85, respectively. The distance from settlement, soil organic carbon, and altitude variables have the greatest impact on the current distribution of the species; and among the climatic variables, Isothermality(Bio3), Temperature Seasonality(Bio4), and Max Temperature of Warmest Month(Bio5) had the greatest impact on species distribution. The results showed that in climate change scenarios by 2070, the distribution range and breadth of climatic niche of Rhinopoma muscatellum will be significantly increased(P-value 0.05), habitat fragmentation will be reduced, and in RCP8.5 scenario it will reach the maximum distribution(39.38% of total Iran). This increase will cover the Elburz and Zagros mountain ranges, and a large part of the country will be suitable for the species. In response to current climate change, migration to higher latitudes was identified in this study. Among the main different classes of protected regions in Iran(National parks, Wildlife refuges, and Protected areas), protected areas in all scenarios had the most coverage of the suitable species habitat.  相似文献   

4.
《山地科学学报》2020,17(1):68-82
Global climate change poses a new challenge for species and can even push some species toward an extinction vortex. The most affected organisms are those with narrow tolerance to the climatic factors but many large mammals such as ungulates with a wider ecological niche are also being affected indirectly. Our research mainly used wild sheep in central Iran as a model species to explore how the suitable habitats will change under different climatic scenarios and to determine if current borders of protected areas will adequately protect habitat requirements. To create habitat models we used animal-vehicle collision points as an input for species presence data. We ran habitat models using Max Ent modeling approach under different climatic scenarios of the past, present and future(under the climatic scenarios for minimum(RCP2.6) and maximum(RCP8.5) CO2 concentration trajectories). We tried to estimate the overlap and the width of the ecological niche using relevant metrics. In order to analyze the effectiveness of the protected areas, suitable maps were concerted to binary maps using True Skill Statistic(TSS) threshold and measured the similarity of the binary maps for each scenario using Kappa index. In order to assess the competence of the present protected areas boundary in covering the distribution of species, two different scenarios were employed, which are ensemble scenario 1: an ensemble of the binary maps of the species distribution in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP2.6;and ensemble scenario 2: an ensemble of binary suitability maps in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP8.5. Then, the borders of modeled habitats with the boundaries of 23 existing protected areas in two central provinces in Iran were compared. The predicted species distribution under scenario 1(RCP2.6) was mostly similar to its current distribution(Kappa = 0.53) while the output model under scenario 2(RCP8.5) indicated a decline in the species distribution range. Under the first ensemble scenario, current borders of the protected areas in Hamedan province showed better efficiency to cover the model species distribution range. Analyzing Max Ent spatial models under the second climatic scenario suggested that protected areas in both Markazi and Hamedan provinces will not cover "high suitability" areas in the future. Modeling the efficiency of the current protected areas under predicted future climatic scenarios can help the related authorities to plan conservation activities more efficiently.  相似文献   

5.
Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdeling(HBV) Light model was used to evaluate the performance of the model in response to climate change in the snowy and glaciated catchment area of Hunza River Basin. The study aimed to understand the temporal variation of streamflow of Hunza River and its contribution to Indus River System(IRS). HBV model performed fairly well both during calibration(R2=0.87, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=-0.36) and validation(R2=0.86, Reff=0.83, PBIAS=-13.58) periods on daily time scale in the Hunza River Basin. Model performed better on monthly time scale with slightly underestimated low flows period during bothcalibration(R2=0.94, Reff=0.88, PBIAS=0.47) and validation(R2=0.92, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=15.83) periods. Simulated streamflow analysis from 1995-2010 unveiled that the average percentage contribution of snow, rain and glacier melt to the streamflow of Hunza River is about 16.5%, 19.4% and 64% respectively. In addition, the HBV-Light model performance was also evaluated for prediction of future streamflow in the Hunza River using future projected data of three General Circulation Model(GCMs) i.e. BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, and MIROCESM under RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 and predictions were made over three time periods, 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, using 1980-2010 as the control period. Overall projected climate results reveal that temperature and precipitation are the most sensitiveparameters to the streamflow of Hunza River. MIROC-ESM predicted the highest increase in the future streamflow of the Hunza River due to increase in temperature and precipitation under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios from 2010-2099 while predicted slight increase in the streamflow under RCP2.6 during the start and end of the 21 th century. However, BCCCSM1.1 predicted decrease in the streamflow under RCP8.5 due to decrease in temperature and precipitation from 2010-2099. However, Can ESM2 predicted 22%-88% increase in the streamflow under RCP4.5 from 2010-2099. The results of this study could be useful for decision making and effective future strategic plans for water management and their sustainability in the region.  相似文献   

6.
Chitwan-Annapuma Landscape(CHAL)in central Nepal is known for its rich biodiversity and the landscape is expected to provide corridors for species range shift in response to climate change.Environmental assessments have identified biological invasions and other anthropogenic activities as major threats to the biodiversity in the CHAL.One of the rapidly spreading Invasive Alien Plant species(IAPs)in the CHAL is Parthenium hysterophorus L.,a neotropical invasive weed of global significance.This study aimed to investigate the current and future projected suitable habitat of P.hysterophorus in the CHAL using MaxEnt modelling in three"Representative Concentration Pathways"(RCPs 2.6,4.5 and 8.5)corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissiontrajectories for the year 2050 and 2070.A total of 288species occurrence points,six bioclimatic variablesmean diurnal range,isothermality,annual precipitation,precipitation of driest month,precipitation seasonality,precipitation of driest quarter and two topographic variables(aspect and slope)were selected for MaxEnt modelling.Potential range shift in terms of increase or decline in the suitable habitat areas under the projected scenarios were calculated.Slope and annual precipitation were the most important variables that explained the current distribution of P.hysterophorus.Twenty percent of the total area of CHAL was predicted to be suitable habitat for the growth of P.hysterophorus in the current climatic condition.Highest gain in the suitable habitat of this noxious weed was found under RCP 4.5 scenario in 2050 and 2070.whereas there will be a loss in thesuitable habitat under RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050 and2070.Out of four physiographic regions present in CHAL,three regions-Siwalik,Middle Mountain and High Mountain have suitable habitat for P.hysterophorus under current climatic condition.The mountainous region is likely to be affected more than the Siwalik region by further spread of P.fhysteropfhorus in the future under low(RCP 2.6)to medium(RCP 4.5)emission scenarios.The suitable habitat for this weed is likely to increase in the protected areas of mountain regions(Langtang National Park,Annapurna Conservation Area and Manaslu Conservation Area)in the future.The results have revealed a risk of spreading P.hysterophorus from present localities to non-invaded areas in the current and future climatic condition.Such risk needs to be considered by decision makers and resource managers while planning for effective management of this weed to reduce its ecological and economic impacts in the CHAL.  相似文献   

7.
Abies fabri is a typical subalpine dark coniferous forest in southwestern China. Air temperature increases more at high elevation areas than that at low elevation areas in mountainous regions, and climate change ratio is also uneven in different seasons. Carbon gain and the response of water use efficiency (WUE) to annual and seasonal increases in temperature with or without CO2 fertilization were simulated in Abies fabri using the atmospheric-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). Four future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were selectively investigated. The results showed that warmer temperatures have negative effects on gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) in growing seasons and positive effects in dormant seasons due to the variation in the leaf area index. Warmer temperatures tend to generate lower canopy WUE and higher ecosystem WUE in Abies fabri. However, warmer temperature together with rising CO2 concentrations significantly increase the GPP and NPP in both growing and dormant seasons and enhance WUE in annual and dormant seasons because of the higher leaf area index (LAI) and soil temperature. The comparison of the simulated results with and without CO2 fertilization shows that CO2 has the potential to partially alleviate the adverse effects of climate warming on carbon gain and WUE in subalpine coniferous forests.  相似文献   

8.
Recently, study in past trends of climate variables gained significant consideration because of its contribution in adaptions and mitigation strategies for potential future changes in climate, primarily in the area of water resource management. Future interannual and inter-seasonal variations in maximum and minimum temperature may bring significant changes in hydrological systems and affect regional water resources. The present study has been performed to observe past(1970-2010) as well as future(2011-2100)spatial and temporal variability in temperature(maximum and minimum) over selected stations of Sutlej basin located in North-Western Himalayan region in India. The generation of future time series of temperature data at different stations is done using statistical downscaling technique. The nonparametric test methods, modified Mann-Kendall test and Cumulative Sum chart are used for detecting monotonic trend and sequential shift in time series of maximum and minimum temperature. Sen’s slope estimator test is used to detect the magnitude of change over a period of time on annual and seasonal basis. The cooling experienced in annual TMax and TMin at Kasol in past(1970-2010) would be replaced by warming in future as increasing trends are detected in TMax during 2020 s and 2050 s and in TMin during 2020 s, 2050 s and 2080 s under A1 B and A2 scenarios. Similar results of warming are also predicted at Sunnifor annual TMin in future under both scenarios which witnessed cooling during 1970-2010. The rise in TMin at Rampur is predicted to be continued in future as increasing trends are obtained under both the scenarios. Seasonal trend analysis reveals large variability in trends of TMax and TMin over these stations for the future periods.  相似文献   

9.
To better understand the variation in mountainous discharge(MD) in the future, a basin case study was conducted in the upstream Taolai River Basin(UTRB) in arid northwestern China. The Blaney-Criddle(B-C) equation, Budyko framework, and water balance method were coupled for MD calculations. The outputs of 10 global climate models(GCMs) are synthesized to confirm the future changes in air temperature and precipitation under 3 selected Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios. The climate elasticity(CE) method was used to determine the variation in MD, and the influence of climate factors on that was quantitatively analyzed. The results reveal that the coupling framework of the three methods is suitable for MD determination in the UTRB. The weight-based synthesis of the 10 GCM outputs shows overall increases in temperature(T) and precipitation(P) under the 3 scenarios during most of the time until 2099. The above climate change leads to an increase in MD. According to CE analysis, the positive effectiveness of precipitation is greater than the negative effectiveness of temperature on MD variation, and the increase in precipitation would induce more MD in the UTRB. Uncertainty analysis reveals that GCM outputs dominate in predicting precipitation, while the RCP scenarios influence temperature more. Overall, under the background of climate change, the risk of extreme floods during wet years might increase, and a water deficit will still occur during normal and dry years. The study provides a case example for better understanding MD responses to climate change in the upper reaches of inland river basins. Findings are helpful for reasonable water resource development and utilization in the middle and lower reaches of these basins in the future. As in the Taolai River Basin, considering the future water demand across the whole basin, the development of watersaving technologies and reasonable industrial structures is crucial for a sustainable future.  相似文献   

10.
《山地科学学报》2020,17(3):624-640
Assessment of climate and land use changes impact including extreme events on the sediment yield is vital for water and power stressed countries. Mangla Reservoir is the second-largest reservoir in Pakistan, and its capacity is being reduced due to rapid sedimentation and will be threatened under climate and land use changes. This paper discusses the consequences of climate and land use change on sediment yield at Mangla Dam using General Circulation Models(GCMs), Land Change Modeler(LCM), Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model after calibration and validation.Results show that over the historical period temperature is observed to increase by 0.10 o C/decade and forest cover is observed to reduce to the level of only 16% in 2007. Nevertheless, owing to the forest conservation policy, the forest cover raised back to 27% in 2012. Anticipated land use maps by using LCM of 2025, 2050 and 2100 showed that the forest cover will be 33%, 39.2%, and, 53.7%, respectively. All seven GCMs projected the increase in temperature and five GCMs projected an increase in precipitation,however, two GCMs projected a decrease in precipitation. Owing to climate change, land use change and combined impact of climate and land use change on annual sediment yield(2011-2100) may vary from-42.9% to 39.4%, 0% to-27.3% and,-73%to 39.4%, respectively. Under climate change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with extreme events and is expected to increase with the increase in extreme events. Under land use change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with the forest cover and is expected to decrease with the increase in forest cover. The results of this study are beneficial for planners, watershed managers and policymakers to mitigate the impacts of climate and land use changes to enhance reservoir life by reducing the sediment yield.  相似文献   

11.
Abies fabri is a typical subalpine dark coniferous forest in southwestern China. Air temperature increases more at high elevation areas than that at low elevation areas in mountainous regions,and climate change ratio is also uneven in different seasons. Carbon gain and the response of water use efficiency(WUE) to annual and seasonal increases in temperature with or without CO_2 fertilization were simulated in Abies fabri using the atmospheric-vegetation interaction model(AVIM2). Four future climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) were selectively investigated. The results showed that warmer temperatures have negative effects on gross primary production(GPP) and net primary production(NPP) in growing seasons and positive effects in dormant seasons due to the variation in the leaf area index. Warmer temperatures tend to generate lower canopy WUE and higher ecosystem WUE in Abies fabri. However,warmer temperature together with rising CO_2 concentrations significantlyincrease the GPP and NPP in both growing and dormant seasons and enhance WUE in annual and dormant seasons because of the higher leaf area index(LAI) and soil temperature. The comparison of the simulated results with and without CO_2 fertilization shows that CO_2 has the potential to partially alleviate the adverse effects of climate warming on carbon gain and WUE in subalpine coniferous forests.  相似文献   

12.
Climate change will affect the geographic distribution and richness of species at different spatial and temporal scales. We applied Maximum entropy(MaxEnt) modeling to predict the potential influence of climatic change on the current and future distribution of the important mountainous tree species Moringa peregrina(Forssk.) Fiori. The Maxent model performed better than random models for the species with the training and test AUC(Area Under the receiver-operating characteristic Curve) values of 0.96 and 0.90, respectively. Jackknife test and response curves showed that the distribution of the species negatively correlates with higher altitudes and precipitation in October and November. Moreover, it positively correlates with the total annual precipitation and precipitation in January. Under current and future climatic conditions, our model predicted habitat gains for M. peregrina towards the coastal northern and southern limits of its distribution. The potentially suitable habitats, under future climate projections, are currently characterized by elevations of 1000 m a.s.l. and total annual precipitation of 80-225 mm/year. Moderate and high potential habitat suitability will increase by 5.6%-6% and 2.1%-2.3%, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. The results indicated that the habitat suitability of M. peregrina would increase with increasing climate warming, particularly under RCP2.6 scenario. We recommend sustainable conservation and cultivation of Moringa peregrina in its current habitats along the Red Sea mountains.  相似文献   

13.
Global climate change is having long-term impacts on the geographic distribution of forest species. However, the response of vertical belts of mountain forests to climate change is still little known. The vertical distribution of forest vegetation(vertical vegetation belt) on Gongga Mountain in Southwest China has been monitored for 30 years. The forest alternation of the vertical vegetation belt under different climate conditions was simulated by using a mathematical model GFSM(the Gongga Forest Succession Model). Three possible Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) climate scenarios(increase of air temperature and precipitation by 1.8℃/5%, 2.8℃/10% and 3.4℃/15% for B_1, A_1B and A_2 scenarios, respectively) were chosen to reflect lower, medium and higher changes of global climate. The vertical belts of mountainous vegetation will shift upward by approximately 300 m, 500 m and 600 m in the B_1, A_1B and A_2 scenarios, respectively, according to the simulated results. Thus, the alpine tree-line will move to a higher altitude. The simulation also demonstrated that, in a changing climate, the shift in the vegetation community will be a slow and extended process characterized by two main phases. During the initial phase, trees of the forest community degrade or die, owing to an inability to adapt to a warmer climate. This results in modest environment for the introduction of opportunistic species, consequently, the vegetation with new dominant tree species becomes predominant in the space vacated by the dead trees at the expense of previously dominated original trees as the succession succeed and climate change advance. Hence, the global climate change would dramatically change forest communities and tree species in mountainous regions because that the new forest community can grow only through the death of the original tree. Results indicated that climate change will cause the change of distribution and composition of forest communities on Gongga Mountain, and this change may enhance as the intensity of climate change increases. As a result, the alternation of death and rebirth would finally result in intensive landscape changes, and may strongly affect the eco-environment of mountainous regions.  相似文献   

14.
The multi-model assessment of glaciohydrological regimes can enhance our understanding of glacier response to climate change. This improved knowledge can uplift our computing abilities to estimate the contributing components of the river discharge. This study examined and compared the hydrological responses in the glacier-dominated Shigar River basin(SRB) under various climatic scenarios using a semi-distributed Modified Positive Degree Day Model(MPDDM) and a distributed Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model(GDM). Both glacio-hydrological models were calibrated and validated against the observed hydro-meteorological data from 1988-1992 and 1993-1997. Temperature and precipitation data from Shigar and Skardu meteorological stations were used along with field estimated degree-day factor, temperature, and precipitation gradients. The results from both models indicate that the snow and ice melt are vital contributors to sustain river flow in the catchment. However, MPDDM estimated 68% of rain and baseflow contribution to annual river runoff despite low precipitation during the summer monsoon, while GDM estimated 14% rain and baseflow contribution. Likewise, MPDDM calculated 32%, and GDM generated 86% of the annual river runoff from snow and ice melt. MPDDM simulated river discharge with 0.86 and 0.78 NSE for calibration and validation, respectively. Similarly, GDM simulated river discharge with improved accuracy of 0.87 for calibration and 0.84 NSE for the validation period. The snow and ice melt is significant in sustaining river flow in the SRB, and substantial changes in melt characteristics of snow and ice are expected to have severe consequences on seasonal water availability. Based on the sensitivity analysis, both models' outputs are highly sensitive to the variation in temperature. Furthermore, compared to MPDDM, GDM simulated considerable variation in the river discharge in climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and 8.5, mainly due to the higher sensitivity of GDM model outputs to temperature change. The integration of an updated melt module and two reservoir baseflow module in GDM is anticipated to advance the representation of hydrological components, unlike one reservoir baseflow module used separately in MPDDM. The restructured melt and baseflow modules in GDM have fundamentally enriched our perception of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the catchment.  相似文献   

15.
The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of long-term cultivation and water erosion on the soil organic carbon （OC） in particle-size fractions. The study site is located at Nihegou Watershed in the Southern Loess Plateau, China. The soil at this site is loess with loose and silty structure, and contains macropores. The results showed that the OC concentrations in sediments and in the particle-size fractions of sediments were higher than those in soils and in the particle-size fractions of soils. The OC concentration was highest in the clay particles and was lowest in the sand particles. Clay particles possessed higher OC enrichment ability than silt and sand particles. The proportions of OC in the silt fractions of soil and sediment were the highest （mean value of 53.87% and 58.48%, respectively）, and the total proportion of OC in the clay and silt fractions accounted for 96% and 98% of the total OC in the soil and sediment, respectively. The loss of OC was highest in silt particles, with an average value of 0.16 Mg ha^-1 y^-1, and was lowest in the sand （0.003 Mg ha^-1 y^-l）. This result suggests that the fine particle-size fraction in the removed sediment may be an important indicator to assess soil OC losses.  相似文献   

16.
Present study has been conducted in a biodiversity rich Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve between 2000-3800 m in two different forest physiognomy holding sites to analyze the structure and composition of the forest communities including richness of native, non native and endemic species,and suggest conservation values at community and reserve level.A total of 60 sites were sampled and grouped in 11 and 8 communities for two representative sites Pindari-Sunderdhunga-Kafni(PSK) and Lata-Tolma-Phagti(LTP) respectively.From the sampled sites, 451 species(11.8%, 53 trees;17.71%, 80 shrubs; and 70.51%, 318 herbs) have been recorded.In general, PSK site represented 73.6% and LTP site represented only 54.9% of the total plant species recorded in the study area.Out of total species in PSK site, native species contributed 59.6%(198spp.) and 24.7% species were endemic and near endemic.In LTP site, 66.5% species were Himalayan natives and 33.5% were endemic and near endemic.The species richness ranged from 4-23 ind ha-1(tree),3-18 ind ha-1(sapling), 5-19 ind ha-1(seedling) in PSK site and 4-18 ind ha-1(tree), 4-11 ind ha-1(sapling), 4-16 ind ha-1(seedling) in LTP site.The density ranged from 260-535 ind ha-1(tree), 145-633 ind ha-1(sapling), 1450-8170 ind ha-1(seedling) in PSK site and 599-1211 ind ha-1(tree), 70-951 ind ha-1(sapling),470-1665 ind ha-1(seedling) in LTP site.Species diversity for trees ranged from 0.73-3.37, saplings,0.64-2.67, seedlings, 0.70-2.51, shrubs, 1-2.34 and herbs, 2.02-3.21 in PSK site and 0.63-1.61, saplings,0.76-1.36, seedlings, 0.35-1.79, shrubs, 0.98-2.73 and herbs, 2.48-3.61 in LTP site.These recorded values were almost comparable with the studies conducted in sub-tropical, temperate and sub-alpine regions of the west Himalaya.In some cases the values were slightly higher than the reported values.The important communities with high conservation values have been identified based on different ecological parameters and species distribution.Among all the prioritized communities, Mixed Silver firRhododendron-Maple community in PSK site and Taxus wallichana- A.pindrow mixed community in LTP site supports maximum richness and density of native and endemic species.This study calls for development of adequate strategy and action plan for the conservation and management of habitats, species,and communities under changing climate and socioeconomic scenarios, so that sustainable utilization of the species could be ensured.  相似文献   

17.
气候变化影响及其适应受到广泛关注。大量研究表明,受气候变化影响所造成的增温和降水减少已影响到非洲地区的农业生产和环境。本文利用HadGEM2区域气候模式输出的RCP4.5情景数据,基于时间序列分析及空间分析方法,对非洲大陆2010-2099年主要关键气候要素时空演变特征进行了预估,探讨了非洲大陆未来90年包括降水、辐射、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温等主要气候要素的时空变化格局。结果表明：各气候要素在不同时段的变化均表现出明显的地域分异差异： ① 相较于1970-1999年基准时段,未来3个时段(2020s、2050s、2080s)降水均增加,在2080s增至峰值,增加地区集中在20 °N附近的尼日尔、乍得、利比亚等国;最高增幅达4.5%;② 辐射增加区域分布在赤道地区和非洲大陆的南北两端,尤其是高海拔地区,如撒哈拉沙漠以北的阿特拉斯山脉附近,加丹加高原等地,最大增幅达0.04%;③ 未来90年非洲地区气温增加明显,包括平均气温、最高气温、最低气温,气温增幅由2020s、2050s、2080s依次递增,到2080s达到最大值,平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的最大增幅分别达到5、4.3和5.1 ℃。总体上,未来90年非洲大陆的气温较1970-1999年基准时段明显增多,但靠近海域的沿海地区增温较小,这是由于受到近海寒流的影响,起到了降温的作用。气温增幅过高也将不利于未来农业生产和地区安全。  相似文献   

18.
秦巴山区植被覆盖与土壤湿度时空变化特征及其相互关系   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
基于2001-2014年MODIS-NDVI和MODIS-LST数据,利用温度植被干旱指数对土壤湿度进行遥感反演,分析了秦巴山区植被覆盖与土壤湿度时空变化特征及其相互关系。研究发现：① 秦巴山区植被覆盖与土壤湿度均呈增加趋势;② 植被覆盖整体水平较高且表现出“四周低,中间高”的空间分布特征,土壤湿度整体表现出“北低南高”的空间分布特征,大体上二者呈现出空间分布正相关性;③ 植被改善趋势表现明显,显著改善区分布分散,无明显集中区域,退化区域主要集中于北部渭河沿岸及东部边缘少量地区;土壤湿度增长态势明显,增大区分布于除西北边缘及东北边缘外的几乎整个研究区中,减小区域面积小且大部分表现不显著;④ 秦巴山区植被覆盖与土壤湿度时空变化上呈现出明显的正相关性,其中69.71%的区域表现出土壤湿度增大-植被覆盖改善的特征,分布于研究区除四周边缘地带外的大部分地区。  相似文献   

19.
Soil erosion by water under forest cover is a serious problem in southern China. A comparative study was carried out on the use of leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation fractional coverage (VFC) in quantifying soil loss under vegetation cover. Five types of vegetation with varied LAI and VFC under field conditions were exposed to two rainfall rates (40 mm h−1 and 54 mm h−1) using a portable rainfall simulator. Runoff rate, sediment concentration and soil loss rate were measured at relatively runoff stable state. Significant negative exponential relationship (p < 0.05, R2 = 0.83) and linear relationship (p < 0.05, R2 = 0.84) were obtained between LAI and sediment concentration, while no significant relationship existed between VFC and sediment concentration. The mechanism by which vegetation canopy prevents soil loss was by reducing rainfall kinetic energy and sediment concentration. LAI could better quantify such a role than VFC. However, neither LAI nor VFC could explain runoff rate or soil loss rate. Caution must be taken when using LAI to quantify the role of certain vegetation in soil and water conservation.  相似文献   

20.
This study examined the nitrogen cycling associated with agricultural production and environmental load in central Hokkaido. The nitrogen （N） budget analysis model offers a new set of tools for evaluating N cycling in agro-ecosystems. The cycling index （CI） is a useful tool for estimating optimal N flows in farmlands. The fertilization index （FI） is a useful indicator for characterizing the N flows related to farms. Using these parameters, we analyzed all farm systems to estimate the optimal N cycling for minimizing N pollution in groundwater and maximizing agricultural production in mountain regions of Japan. The results showed that the critical N application rate （chemical fertilizer ＋ manure） was 143.3 kg N ha^-1 y^-1. The critical inter-system input （chemical fertilizer N, imported food and feed N, and natural supplied N） was 169.2 kg N ha^-1y^-1.  相似文献   

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