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1.
Impacts of climate change on vegetation are often summarized in biome maps, representing the potential natural vegetation class for each cell of a grid under current and changed climate. The amount of change between two biome maps is usually measured by the fraction of cells that change class, or by the kappa statistic. Neither measure takes account of varying structural and floristic dissimilarity among biomes. An attribute-based measure of dissimilarity (V) between vegetation classes is therefore introduced. V is based on (a) the relative importance of different plant life forms (e.g. tree, grass) in each class, and (b) a series of attributes (e.g. evergreen-deciduous, tropical-nontropical) of each life form with a weight for each attribute. V is implemented here for the most used biome model, BIOME 1 (Prentice, I. C. et al., 1992). Multidimensional scaling of pairwise V values verifies that the suggested importance values and attribute weights lead to a reasonable pattern of dissimilarities among biomes. Dissimilarity between two maps (V) is obtained by area-weighted averaging of V over the model grid. Using V, present global biome distribution from climatology is compared with anomaly-based scenarios for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (2 × CO2), and for extreme glacial and interglacial conditions. All scenarios are obtained from equilibrium simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. The 2 × CO2 simulations are the widely used OSU and GFDL runs from the 1980's, representing models with low and high climate sensitivity, respectively. The palaeoclimate simulations were made with CCM1, with sensitivity similar to GFDL. V values for the comparisons of 2 × CO2 with present climate are similar to values for the comparisons of the last interglacial and mid-Holocene with present climate. However, the two simulated 2 × CO2 cases are much more like each other than they are to the simulated interglacial cases. The largest V values were between the last glacial maximum and all other cases, including the present. These examples illustrate the potential of V in comparing the impacts of different climate change scenarios, and the possibility of calibrating climate change impacts against a palaeoclimatic benchmark.  相似文献   

2.
The impact of climate change on the river rhine: A scenario study   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
This paper concerns the impact of human-induced global climate change on the River Rhine discharge. For this purpose a model for climate assessment, named ESCAPE, is coupled to a water balance model, named RHINEFLOW. From climate scenarios, changes in regional annual water availability and seasonal discharge in the River Rhine Basin are estimated. The climate scenarios are based on greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. An assessment is made for best guess seasonal discharge changes and for changes in frequencies of low and high discharges in the downstream reaches of the river. In addition, a quantitative estimation of the uncertainties associated with this guess is arrived at.The results show that the extent and range of uncertainty is large with respect to the best guess changes. The uncertainty range is 2–3 times larger for the Business-as-Usual than for the Accelerated Policies scenarios. This large range stems from the doubtful precipitation simulations from the present General Circulation Models. This scenario study showed the precipitation scenarios to be the key-elements within the present range of reliable climate change scenarios.For the River Rhine best guess changes for annual water availability are small according to both scenarios. The river changes from a present combined snow-melt-rain fed river to an almost entirely rain fed river. The difference between present-day large average discharge in winter and the small average discharge in autumn should increase for all scenarios. This trend is largest in the Alpine part of the basin. Here, winter discharges should increase even for scenarios forecasting annual precipitation decreases. Summer discharge should decrease. Best guess scenarios should lead to increased frequencies of both low and high flow events in the downstream (Dutch) part of the river. The results indicate changes could be larger than presently assumed in worst case scenarios used by the Dutch water management authorities.  相似文献   

3.
Among other foci, recent research on adaptation to climatic variability and change has sought to evaluate the merit of adaptation generally, as well as the suitability of particular adaptations. Additionally, there is a need to better understand the likely uptake of adaptations. For example, diversification is one adaptation that has been identified as a potential farm-level response to climatic variability and change, but its adoption by farmers for this reason is not well understood. This paper serves two purposes. The first is to document the adoption of crop diversification in Canadian prairie agriculture for the period 1994–2002, reflect upon its strengths and limitations for managing a variety of risks, including climatic ones, and gauge its likely adoption by producers in response to anticipated climate change. The second purpose is to draw on this case to refine our current understanding of climate change adaptation more generally. Based upon data from over 15 000 operations, it was determined that individual farms have become more specialized in their cropping patterns since 1994, and this trend is unlikely to change in the immediate future, notwithstanding anticipated climate change and the known risk-reducing benefits of crop diversification. More broadly, the analysis suggests that suitable and even possible climate change adaptations need to be more rigorously assessed in order to understand their wider strengths and limitations.  相似文献   

4.
We quantify the maximum possible influence of vegetation on the global climate by conducting two extreme climate model simulations: in a first simulation (desert world), values representative of a desert are used for the land surface parameters for all non glaciated land regions. At the other extreme, a second simulation is performed (green planet) in which values are used which are most beneficial for the biosphere's productivity. Land surface evapotranspiration more than triples in the presence of the green planet, land precipitation doubles (as a second order effect) and near surface temperatures are lower by as much as 8 K in the seasonal mean resulting from the increase in latent heat flux. The differences can be understood in terms of more absorbed radiation at the surface and increased recycling of water. Most of the increase in net surface radiation originates from less thermal radiative loss and not from increases in solar radiation which would be expected from the albedo change. To illustrate the differences in climatic character and what it would imply for the vegetation type, we use the Köppen climate classification. Both cases lead to similar classifications in the extra tropics and South America indicating that the character of the climate is not substantially altered in these regions. Fundamental changes occur over Africa, South Asia and Australia, where large regions are classified as arid (grassland/desert) climate in the desert world simulation while classified as a forest climate in the green planet simulation as a result of the strong influence of maximum vegetation on the climate. This implies that these regions are especially sensitive to biosphere-atmosphere interaction.  相似文献   

5.
A rainfall-runoff model (IHACRES) is applied on a daily timestep to a large area of the state of Victoria, Australia. Successful calibrations of this dynamic lumped parameter model were performed for 5 rivers contributing streamflow to the Ovens Basin, and for 9 rivers of the Goulburn Basin. This is the first application of the model on such a scale, involving two basins where the total drainage area of the catchments modelled is about 6,500 km2. The models were tested by simulation over the entire common period of observation for the 14 catchments under consideration. The results show that the models closely simulate the observed streamflow.The effect of historical climate variability on streamflow was investigated. The models were used for estimation of the potential impact of climatic change on water availability for irrigation for different climate scenarios developed in the Division of Atmospheric Research, CSIRO. This allows conditional estimates to be made of water supply in these basins for the periods 2030 and 2070 under current vegetation conditions. Projecting the future hydrologic regime in this region is extremely important, in particular for supporting irrigation management of the Basin.The problem of estimating the impact of climate change on the probability of extreme events of the hydrological regime was analysed. Flood frequency was found to increase for the scenarios providing the maximum amount of water; to 50% at 2030 and 100% at 2070. The probability of flood events for the dry scenarios rapidly decreases for these dates. Drought frequency, as defined by a soil wetness index, increased 35% for the dry scenario at 2030 and 80% for this scenario at 2070.  相似文献   

6.
Climate change and snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
This study uses a model of snow-cover duration, an observed climate data set for the Australian alpine area, and a set of regional climate-change scenarios to assess quantitatively how changes in climate may affect snow cover in the Australian Alps. To begin, a regional interannual climate data set of high spatial resolution is prepared for input to the snow model and the resulting simulated interannual and spatial variations in snow-cover duration are assessed and compared with observations. The model provides a reasonable simulation of the sensitivities of snow-cover duration to changes in temperature and precipitation in the Australian Alps, although its performance is poorer at sites highly marginal for snow cover. (In a separate comparison, the model also performs well for sites in the European Alps.) The input climate data are then modified in line with scenarios of regional climate change based on the results of five global climate models run in enhanced greenhouse experiments. The scenarios are for the years 2030 and 2070 and allow for uncertainty associated with projecting future emissions of greenhouse gases and with estimating the sensitivity of the global climate system to enhanced greenhouse forcing. Attention focuses on the climate changes most favourable (best-case scenario) and least favourable (worst-case scenario) for snow cover amongst the range of climate changes in the scenarios. Under the best case scenario for 2030, simulated average snow-cover duration and the frequency of years of more than 60 days cover decline at all sites considered. However, at the higher sites (e.g., more than 1700 m) the effect is not very marked. For the worst case scenario, a much more dramatic decline in snow conditions is simulated. At higher sites, simulated average snow cover duration roughly halves by 2030 and approaches zero by 2070. At lower sites (around 1400 m), near zero average values are simulated by 2030 (compared to durations of around 60 days for current climate).These simulated changes, ranging between the best and worst case, are likely to be indicative of how climate change will affect natural snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps. However, note that the model does not allow directly for changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems, nor do the climate-change scenarios allow possible changes in interannual variability (particularly that due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and local topographical effects not resolved by global climate models. The simulated changes in snow cover are worthy of further consideration in terms of their implications for the ski industry and tourism, water resources and hydroelectric power, and land-use management and planning.68 Barada Crescent, Aranda ACT 2614, Australia.  相似文献   

7.
Public expectation as an element of human perception of climate change   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
Human expectations regarding weather and climate sometimes lead to perceptions of climate change which are not supported by observational evidence. This paper analyses two very characteristic complaints about current climate in Switzerland, i.e., the lack of snow in winter and the lack of sunshine in summer, through a statistical investigation of climatological data. As one major problem of public perception of climate in mid-latitude regions is linked to the strong variability of the climatic parameters, the paper suggests means of presenting climatic data which include a measure of this variability. Such presentations would help overcome the common confusion between the terms weather and climate, and stress the fact that short-term extreme events are not necessarily indicative of a long-term shift in climate.  相似文献   

8.
Summary Casual observers of the impacts associated with four recent freezes in Florida's citrus producing areas might be inclined to agree with an assessment by Miami Herald reporters that these freezes had caused the king of citrus to be toppled from its throne, enabling Brazil to take its place. Research on the citrus industry, however, reveals that the impacts of these recent freezes only explain part of the story of the interaction between climate variability and the relationship between the citrus industries of Florida and Brazil. Climate characteristics and their variability have directly as well as indirectly affected the economic competitiveness of citrus producers whose output is in large measure climate-dependent. Climate variability has had direct impacts on Florida's citrus industry by adversely affecting the productivity of citrus groves in some areas, by altering growers' perceptions of freeze probabilities and, occasionally, by suddenly reducing output, thus elevating the price that consumers must pay for that commodity. Indirectly, competition can be affected by climate as a potential producer identifies a weakness in the supply system of an existing industry and seeks to fill the gap.Brazil's involvement in the toppling of King Citrus began not in the early 1980s (as a result of the four freezes in the past six years), but in 1962 as a result of a major freeze in that year, one that sharply increased FCOJ prices by reducing Florida's output. It was then that the climate had an impact on the economic competitiveness of the citrus industry. The records document the steady, almost meteoric, rise in Brazilian FCOJ production and exports. Subsequent freezes only served to abet a process that had been well underway two decades before the recent devastating freezes.As for Florida's ability to continue and perhaps expand its key role in the global citrus economy, the recent freezes do not appear to have fatally damaged that. Rather, those freezes have reawakened Florida's citrus producers to the fact that they are involved in a climate-sensitive industry and have reminded them that the potential for freeze-related problems is never far away. That reawakening has sparked interest in developing hardier citrus varieties, more effective freeze protection methods, and better ways to hedge economically against freeze impacts to the industry.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

9.
Sensitivity Analysis of Emissions Corridors for the 21st Century   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
We investigate the sensitivity of emissions corridors for the 21st century to various factors that are currently under debate in the climate change arena. Emissions corridors represent the range of admissible emissions futures that observe some predefined guardrails on the future development of the human-climate system. They are calculated on the conceptual and methodological basis of the tolerable windows approach. We assess the sensitivity of the corridors to the choice of time-resolved as well as intertemporally aggregated guardrails that exclude an intolerable amount of climate change on the one hand and unbearable mitigation burdens on the other. In addition, we investigate the influence of climate sensitivity on the corridors.Results show a large dependence of emissions corridors on the choice of guardrails and the value of climate sensitivity T 2CO 2. If the guardrail on climate change is specified in terms of a maximum admissible global mean temperature increase T max to be observed at any time, the size of the corridors is predominantly determined by a climate impact resilience parameter =T max/T 2CO 2. As is varied from values below 0.5 to values above 1.5, we move from cases where no emissions profile whatsoever can observe all guardrails, to cases where no significant emissions reduction seems necessary given the range of emissions scenarios for the 21st century. The limits on admissible mitigation efforts influence predominantly the timing and the economic viability of emissions reductions. A large mitigation flexibility allows for wait then run emissions paths, while low flexibility asks for a significantly more prudent approach.  相似文献   

10.
Increasing cloud in a warming world   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Cloud amount records for the U.S.A. have been analyzed in the context of the warming world analogue model described by Lough et al. (1983). Cloud amount increases over practically the entire U.S.A. in all seasons. This result considerably strengthens the more tentative conclusion of Henderson-Sellers (1986) that cloud amount increases over Europe in the same warming world scenario. These results are in contrast to the few numerical model predictions of cloud changes in warming world experiments. A possible, rather tantalizing, conclusion is that current GCM cloud prediction schemes tend to enhance temperature increases through cloud-climate feedback whereas the historical data could suggest a negative feedback. Part, possibly all, of this difference may be the result of the fundamental distinction between the two experimental scenarios: the equilibrium change modelled by GCMs as compared to the smaller transient change represented by the historical analogue. On the other hand the current real-world experiment is, itself, a transient change in boundary and atmospheric conditions. At the least, surface-observed cloudiness seems to offer a useful and complementary data source with which to examine one aspect of the performance of numerical climate models.  相似文献   

11.
Global Warming Potentials: 1. Climatic Implications of Emissions Reductions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
The use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to calculate equivalent carbon dioxide emissions reductions in the climate change context is examined. We find that GWPs are accurate only for short time horizons. Over long time horizons their use implicitly leads to tradeoffs between near-term and long-term climate change. For one of the most policy-relevant cases, comparing reductions in methane and carbon dioxide, the long-term effect on climate of reducing methane emissions is relatively small, at variance with the common perception based on published GWP values.  相似文献   

12.
Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first (efficiency) scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second (long wave) they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO2 concentrations in a methane economy are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with longwave theories in economics.  相似文献   

13.
Turbulence measurements performed in a stable boundary layer over the sloping ice surface of the Vatnajökull in Iceland are described. The boundary layer, in which katabatic forces are stronger than the large-scale forces, has a structure that closely resembles that of a stable boundary layer overlying a flat land surface, although there are some important differences. In order to compare the two situations the set-up of the instruments on an ice cap in Iceland was reproduced on a flat grass surface at Cabauw, the Netherlands. Wind speed and temperature gradients were calculated and combined with flux measurements made with a sonic anemometer in order to obtain the local stability functions m and h as a function of the local stability parameter z/L. Unlike the situation at Cabauw, where m was linear as a function of z/L, in the katabatically forced boundary layer, the dependence of m on stability was found to be non-linear and related to the height of the wind maximum. Thermal stratification and the depth of the stable boundary layer however seem to be rather similar under these two different forcing conditions.Furthermore, measurements on the ice were used to construct the energy balance. These showed good agreement between observed melt and components contributing to the energy balance: net radiation (supplying 55% of the energy), sensible heat flux (30%) and latent heat flux (15%).Local sources and sinks in the turbulent kinetic energy budget are summed and indicate a reasonable balance in near-neutral conditions but not in more stable situations. The standard deviation of the velocity fluctuations u, v, and w, can be scaled satisfactorily with the local friction velocity u* and the standard deviation of the temperature fluctuation with the local temperature scale *.  相似文献   

14.
Island tropical montane cloud forests may be among the most sensitive of the world's ecosystems to global climate change. Measurements in and above a montane cloud forest on East Maui, Hawaii, document steep microclimatic gradients. Relatively small climate-driven shifts in patterns of atmospheric circulation are likely to trigger major local changes in rainfall, cloud cover, and humidity. Increased interannual variability in precipitation and hurricane incidence would provide additional stresses on island biota that are highly vulnerable to disturbance-related invasion of non-native species. Because of the exceptional sensitivity of these microclimates and forests to change, they may provide valuable listening posts for detecting the onset of human-induced global climate change.  相似文献   

15.
Water is one of the most critical resources in China. Climate change and soil degradation will be two major, interrelated environmental challenges faced by managers of water resources in coming decades. In this study, we used a water-balance model and updated databases to assess the interacting impacts of climate change and soil degradation on Chinas future water resources. We plotted the spatial pattern of changes in actual and potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficits, and surface runoff across China in the 2020s using a resolution of 0.5° latitude and longitude under scenarios based on climate change, soil degradation, and a combination of the two. The results showed that climate change would affect the magnitude and spatial pattern of water resources on a national scale. Some regions in central, southwestern, and northeastern China would become more vulnerable to disastrous drought and floods as a result of soil degradation. Under the combined impacts of climate change and soil degradation, soil moisture deficits would increase most in central, western, and southwestern China; surface runoff would increase most in southeastern China. More detailed process-based models are needed to capture feedback mechanisms more effectively.  相似文献   

16.
From measured one-dimensional spectra of velocity and temperature variance, the universal functions of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory are calculated for the range –2 z/L + 2. The calculations show good agreement with observations with the exception of a range –1 z/L 0 in which the function m , i.e., the nondimensional mean shear, is overestimated. This overestimation is shown to be caused by neglecting the spectral divergence of a vertical transport of turbulent kinetic energy. The integral of the spectral divergence over the entire wave number space is suggested to be negligibly small in comparison with production and dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy.Notation a,b,c contants (see Equations (–4)) - Ci constants i=u, v, w, (see Equation (5) - kme,kmT peak wave numbers of 3-d moel spectra of turbulent kinetic energy and of temperature variance, respectively - kmi peak wave numbers of 1-d spectra of velocity components i=u, v, w and of temperature fluctuations i= - ksb, kc characteristics wave numbers of energy-feeding by mechanical effects being modified by mean buoyancy, and of convective energy feeding, respectively - L Monin-Obukhov length - % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% Gabeivayaaraaaaa!3C5B!\[{\rm{\bar T}}\] difference of mean temperature and mean potential temperature - T* Monin-Obukhov temperature scale - velocity of mean flow in positive x-direction - u* friction velocity - u, v, w components of velocity fluctuations - z height above ground - von Kármanán constant - temperature fluctuation - m nondimensional mean shear - H nondimensional mean temperature gradient - nondimensional rate of lolecular dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy - D nondimensional divergence of vertical transports of turbulent linetic energy  相似文献   

17.
The primary goal of this investigation is to focus on a realistic scenario for simulating impacts on regional African climate of future deforestation in a greenhouse-warmed world. Combined effects of plausible land-cover change and greenhouse warming are assessed by time-slice simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for the middle of the twenty first century. Three time-slice integrations have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat AGCM incorporating a zooming technique to achieve a resolution of about 100 km over Africa. A control run for the current climate is forced by observed climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the observed vegetation distribution is specified from a new vegetation database, in order to improve the geographical distribution and properties of the vegetation cover. Future SST changes are derived from a transient coupled atmosphere–ocean simulation for scenario B2 of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Future vegetation changes are specified from a simulation of scenario B2 with the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) developed at the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment in the Netherlands (RIVM). The results show that land surface processes can locally modulate greenhouse warming effects for African climate, with reductions of surface transpiration and small increases of surface temperature. Deforestation of tropical Africa has overall only a marginal effect on precipitation because of a compensatory increase in moisture convergence. Energy budget analyses show that increases in surface temperature are produced both by increases of greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration from the increase in downward atmospheric longwave radiation, and by African tropical deforestation from the resulting reduction in transpiration. This study indicates that realistic land-use changes, though of smaller amplitude than greenhouse gas forcing, may have a small regional effect in projections of future climate.  相似文献   

18.
Outcome and value uncertainties in global-change policy   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Choices among environmental policies can be informed by analysis of the potential physical, biological, and social outcomes of alternative choices, and analysis of social preferences among these outcomes. Frequently, however, the consequences of alternative policies cannot be accurately predicted because of substantial outcome uncertainties concerning physical, chemical, biological, and social processes linking policy choices to consequences. Similarly, assessments of social preferences among alternative outcomes are limited by value uncertainties arising from limitations of moral principles, the absence of economic markets for many environmental attributes, and other factors. Outcome and value uncertainties relevant to global-change policy are described and their magnitudes are examined for two cases: stratospheric-ozone depletion and global climate change. Analysis of information available in the mid 1980s, when international ozone regulations were adopted, suggests that contemporary uncertainties surrounding CFC emissions and the atmospheric response were so large that plausible ozone depletion, absent regulation, ranged from negligible to catastrophic, a range that exceeded the plausible effect of the regulations considered. Analysis of climate change suggests that, important as outcome uncertainties are, uncertainties about values may be even more important for policy choice.  相似文献   

19.
Summary This study deals with one aspect of statistical downscaling, viz. links between the continental-scale upper-air circulation and surface weather variables on a daily scale. The circulation-to-weather links are expressed in terms of multiple regression between either grid point values or intensities of circulation variability modes and weather elements, including temperature variables, relative humidity, cloudiness, sunshine duration, zonal and meridional wind components, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure. The upper-air circulation influences the surface pressure, temperature and zonal wind most strongly. The relative humidity, cloudiness and sunshine duration appear not to be connected with circulation in winter at all. The low-frequency part of circulation (i.e. processes with periods longer than 10 days) is most efficient in specifying surface weather variables. The circulation-to-weather links manifest considerable intra- and interdecadal variations, posing doubts on the applicability of the downscaling-from-circulation method of constructing climate change scenarios.With 11 Figures  相似文献   

20.
Summary The total ozone decline during the past twenty years, especially strong during the winter-spring season poleward from 50° N, is well established with known average trends of 5–7% per decade. This study presents a number of additional characteristics such as ozone-mass deficiency (O3MD) from the pre- 1976 base average, and areal extent with negative deviations greater than2 and3. Gridded satellite data combined with ground-based total ozone maps, permit calculations of daily and regional ozone deficiencies from the anthropogenically undisturbed average ozone levels of the 1960s and early 1970s. Then the quantity of the O3MD and the changes in surface area, with deficiencies larger than-10 and-15% are integrated for the 1 January to 15 April period for each of the last 20 years, and compared. In addition, the polar vortex extent during the last 10 years is determined using the PV at 475°K. The quantity of the O3MD within the sunlit part of the vortex is shown to contribute from15 to 35% of the overall ozone deficiency within the-10% contours over the area 35–90°N. The ozone deficiency, integrated for the first 105 days of each year, has increased dramatically from 2,800Mt in the early 1980s to7,800Mt in the 1990s, exceeded 12,000Mt in the winter-springs of 1993 and 1995. The latter quantity is comparable with the average O3MD over the same Southern latitudes in the last ten austral springs. During the 1990s over the 35–90° latitudes the average ozone deficiency in the Southern hemisphere belt is less than over the Northern hemisphere belt by40%. It is known that the main ozone decline is observed in the lower stratosphere and the ozone loss over the Arctic is very sensitive to decreasing stratospheric temperatures; negative 50hPa monthly anomalies greater than 4°C have occurred during 7 of the springs in the last decade, thus possibly facilitating doubling the area with negative ozone deviations greater than-10% in the 1990s to5,000.106km2 and nearly tripling the O3MD as stated above. The changes in total eddy heat fluxes as a proxy indicator of the long wave perturbations are positively correlated with the ozone deficiency in the 45–75°N. The strong anticorrelation between the ozone deficiency in the region>55° N. versus the 35–50° N belt is discussed in relation to possible transport of air masses with low ozone from the sub-tropics, which in some years are the dominant reason for the observed ozone deficiency.With 11 Figures  相似文献   

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