共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 234 毫秒
1.
《地震地质》2017,(3)
将主成分分析法和局部互相关追踪法应用于地震电磁数据的处理分析,尝试从较强干扰背景中提取相对较弱的电磁异常信息。主成分分析方法能够将不同频段的原始信号由强到弱投影到不同的轴上,使不同的信号分离开来,从而在一定程度上解决在较强干扰背景中识别相对较弱信号的难题;局部互相关追踪法相对于经典互相关方法更适用于非平稳信号的处理,该方法基于不同极低频电磁观测台站对应磁场分量之间的空间互相关性对相关系数异常进行拾取,从而达到弱信号识别的目的。以云南省景谷县2015年11月14日4.6级地震为例,分别运用主成分分析法和局部互相关追踪法对震中附近的极低频观测台观测的电磁资料进行处理分析。首先,将主成分分析方法应用于台站磁场分量数据的处理,得到各主成分及其所占能量比随时间的变化,结果表明震前1周左右与地震相关的第2主成分所占能量比显著增加;其次,利用局部互相关追踪法对该震例进行处理分析并与主成分分析法处理的结果进行对比,结果显示SN及EW向磁场分量的局部互相关结果于地震前1周左右均出现相关系数异常,与主成分分析方法的处理结果基本一致,并探讨了这些异常可能与地震活动性之间存在的关系。虽然目前电磁异常现象的产生与地震之间的确切关系尚缺乏直接的证据与理论支持,但2种方法对电磁异常信号的有效提取将有助于加深对地震电磁现象的认知、理解与进一步研究。 相似文献
2.
利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,研究了南半球夏季（12~2月）纬向平均环流的垂直结构异常及其与南极涛动（AAO）和ENSO的联系.结果表明,南半球夏季纬向平均［u］的异常分布的主要模态（EOF1）显示出极区、50°S~70°S、以及50°S以北的区间内“三极”型振荡.EOF1 既反映了AAO的特征又与ENSO有着显著的关系.由于AAO指数与Nino3区指数之间存在着统计相关,为进一步弄清AAO和ENSO在南半球纬向平均气流变动的相关分量及其结构,利用Nino3区指数使用一元回归方法滤除ENSO影响,再对剩下的部分作EOF分解,得到了独立于ENSO的纬向平均［u］的第一模态AEOF1.相关分析表明AEOF1为与AAO相对应的纬向平均［u］异常的分布.用南半球纬向平均［u］去掉其与AAO相联系的模态AEOF1,进行EOF分解得到的第一模SEOF1,其与Nino3 区指数的相关高达0.9.由此给出了纬向平均气流的变动与ENSO无关的模态和与ENSO有关的模态.时间变化分析表明,近30年中,除了年代际变化和3~7年的年际变化外,纬向平均的纬向基本气流尚有极地西风减弱、副极地西风加强、副热带西风减弱、热带东风加强的长期趋势. 相似文献
3.
获取COSMIC掩星2级数据, 基于球谐函数使用最小二乘拟合法计算模型值, 为2008年5月12日汶川MS8.0地震前电离层电子密度变化提供背景依据. 同时应用主成分分析法研究最大电子密度, 得到各主成分所占能量百分比随时间的变化. 研究结果发现, 震前在震中邻近区域出现电离层扰动增强现象, 且随高度不同存在一定差异, 主要集中在F2层300—450 km. 主成分分析结果显示, 4月15日—29日19:00—24:00(地方时)第三主成分能量百分比显著增加. 上述结果表明, 震前电离层存在异常扰动现象. 这一研究结果有助于加强地震电离层耦合机理方面的研究. 相似文献
4.
平流层过程如何影响气候变化是一个大家关注的科学问题,在WCRP中专门设置了一个研究子计划SPARC.本文的分析研究表明,中国的梅雨异常可能受到平流层大气环流异常的影响,而这种影响是通过北极涛动（AO）的变化来实现的.从分析和计算结果可以看到,二月份北半球30 hPa位势高度的EOF第一主分量对应着副热带和高纬度地区的显著下传异常波作用量,其第三主分量对应着极地地区的显著下传异常波作用量,这些下传的异常波作用量都对三月份AO形势的形成有明显的贡献.三月份的AO则会通过影响东亚地区夏季对流层大气的冷暖状况和环流,在长江中下游地区导致异常垂直运动和辐散辐合形势,从而影响夏季的梅雨降水. 相似文献
5.
利用1979年1月至2016年12月ERA-interim月平均再分析资料和CAMP全球月降水资料,分析夏季（6—8月）南亚高压下方500 hPa到100 hPa暖中心的时空分布,从三维结构来揭示夏季南亚高压暖心特征.回归分析进一步探讨青藏高原上空暖中心对全球大气环流产生的可能影响.结果表明：南亚高压在150 hPa达到最强,这一层也是异常冷暖中心分界面,150 hPa以下有一强大异常暖中心,异常暖中心位于300 hPa附近,150 hPa以上为异常冷中心,中心位置位于70 hPa附近.异常暖中心从500 hPa向上逐渐向西向北倾斜,异常暖中心面积200 hPa达最大,150 hPa异常暖中心消失,100 hPa以上转变为异常冷中心.500~200 hPa异常暖中心表现出不断增暖的长期趋势（1979—2016）,100 hPa异常冷中心则表现出不断变冷的长期趋势（1979—2016）.去掉长期趋势的时间序列表现出明显的"准两年振荡"特征,异常暖中心位置在纬向上较稳定,在经向上表现出年际的"东西振荡".300 hPa异常暖中心是整个南亚高压的关键层.300 hPa异常暖中心对全球其他变量场进行回归分析.高度回归场表明,青藏高原上空异常暖中心在北半球中高纬度高度场上激发出3波的行星波,波特征在对流层中上层表现明显,波振幅随高度增高不断加强,在对流层中下层逐渐减弱并消失.纬向风回归场在对流层中上层表现出横跨南北半球的波列,这个波列在200 hPa振幅最大.经向风回归场在北半球中纬度（30°N—60°N）表现出7波型,说明南北能量交换频繁.降水回归场表明,东亚地区长江中下游至日本降水偏少,而其南北两侧降水偏多. 相似文献
6.
信号异常检测的主要目的是寻找对信号反应灵敏的特征参数.本文从倒谱法的算法、性质等阐释了倒谱系数对信号异常具有较好的灵敏度,并通过实际计算,验证了倒谱系数对信号的振幅、时间延迟和相位参数微小变化的灵敏度反应较好.对所设计的指数衰减正弦波信号,倒谱法能够较容易地检测出振幅、时间延迟和相位参数相对变化为百分之一的信号,而时间... 相似文献
7.
利用NCEP/NCAR大气再分析资料以及Hadley中心海表温度资料,针对北太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)的完整系统,通过分析超前于ENSO事件的海平面副高年际异常特征及其对ENSO事件的触发作用以及ENSO事件对500 hPa副高和海平面副高的滞后影响,结果表明了北太平洋副热带高压年际变异和ENSO循环之间存在选择性相互作用.即在大多数情况下,一方面,前期海平面副高减弱会导致热带西太平洋表面西风异常,通过海洋平流过程触发El Nino事件在夏季发生发展,在秋冬季成熟; 而另一方面,El Nino事件在秋冬季发展成熟后,增强了赤道中太平洋的对流性热源,通过对异常热源的动力响应,同期和次年夏季500 hPa副高增强,又通过增强的Hadley环流作用,副热带地区下沉运动增强,从而使得次年夏季海平面副高增强,增强的海平面副高又有利于触发下一个La Nina事件.副高年际变异和ENSO循环之间相互作用的选择性主要取决于副高异常是否接近于赤道以及ENSO事件本身的持续性.这种相互作用有利于在热带太平洋海气系统产生准两年振荡. 相似文献
8.
近年来极端气候事件的频发对全球和区域性水循环产生了重大影响,特别是2005—2017年间两次强ENSO(El Nino-Southern Oscillation)事件使得全球陆地水储量出现了较大的年际波动.GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)重力卫星随着数据质量的提高、后处理方法的完善和超过十年的连续观测,捕捉陆地水储量异常的能力明显提高,这为研究2005—2017年间两次强ENSO事件对中国区域陆地水储量变化的影响提供了观测基础.本文综合利用GRACE卫星重力数据、GLDAS水文模型和实测降水资料分析了中国区域陆地水储量年际变化和与ENSO的关系.研究发现:长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域与ENSO存在较高的相关性,与ENSO的相关系数最大值分别为0.55、0.78、0.70,较ENSO分别滞后约7个月、5个月和5个月.其中长江流域下游地区与ENSO的相关性最强,2010/11 La Nina和2015/16 El Nino两次强ENSO事件使得陆地水储量分别发生了约-24.1亿吨和27.9亿吨的波动.在2010/11 La Nina期间,长江流域下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量异常约在2011年4—5月达到谷值,而长江流域中游地区晚1~2月达到谷值.在2015/16 El Nino期间,长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量从2015年9月到2016年7月持续出现正异常信号.其中,2015年秋冬季(2015年9月至2016年1月)陆地水储量异常明显是受此次El Nino同期影响的结果;2016年春季(4—5月)陆地水异常是受到此次厄尔尼诺峰值的滞后影响所致;2016年7月的陆地水储量异常则与西北太平洋存在的异常反气旋环流有关. 相似文献
9.
对流层顶是地球大气的一个最基本的结构特征,对流层与平流层通过对流层顶交换气团、水汽、微量气体、能量等.对流层顶结构变化与气候变化密切相连.本文采用掩星弯曲角自然对数协方差变换法确定对流层顶,利用气象、电离层与气候星座观测系统(Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate,COSMIC)2007年1月至2011年12月共5年的掩星观测数据分析了中国区域对流层顶高度、温度、气压等参数随经度、纬度、时间变化的特征.采用2°×2°网格法,把包括中国在内的16°N-54°N、72°E-136°E区域共分成19×32个格网单元,然后计算每个格网单元内对流层顶高度、温度、气压的平均值,结果表明对流层顶参数呈明显的纬度分带分布特征.计算每个格网单元内对流层顶参数季节平均值,结果显示对流层顶高度和气压具有明显的季节性变化特征.采用中位数斜率回归法分析对流层顶参数年平均值,发现在研究时段内中国区域对流层顶高度平均每年降低8 m. 相似文献
10.
海面变化记录中隐含着全球和区域变化的重要信息,对这些信号的分离、提取并揭示其变化特征,是深入理解海面变化机制的前提和基础.基于西北太平洋边缘海区10个验潮站1965～2005年月均验潮序列,利用二阶统计量盲源识别（SOBI）方法进行信号分离,结合EMD方法提取海面变化记录中ENSO信号,进而应用小波分析方法探讨了ENSO信号的时空分异特征.结果表明：各站位验潮序列记录了不同类型、不同强度ENSO事件,并表现出显著的时空分异特征,低纬海面对ENSO的响应明显较中高纬强烈;受洋流、地形等要素影响,海面变化对ENSO事件的记录存在型变;海面变化同样揭示了ENSO事件的尺度变化特征,自20世纪80年代以来,坎门以南各站位对ENSO的响应显著增强,其尺度从4年左右逐渐扩展到2～8年,反映了ENSO强度及频率的变化;海面变化记录的强ENSO事件发生前后,在特定尺度上出现相位的反向变化,支持了强ENSO事件的发生可能与尺度间相互耦合与叠加有关的研究结论. 相似文献
11.
The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events versus precipitation anomalies, and the response of seasonal precipitation to El Niño and La Niña events were investigated for 30 basins that represent a range of climatic types throughout South‐east Asia and the Pacific region. The teleconnection between ENSO and the hydroclimate is tested using both parametric and non‐parametric approaches, and the lag correlations between precipitation anomalies versus the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) several months earlier, as well as the coherence between SOI and precipitation anomalies are estimated. The analysis shows that dry conditions tend to be associated with El Niño in the southern zone, and part of the middle zone in the study area. The link between precipitation anomalies and ENSO is statistically significant in the southern zone and part of the middle zone of the study area, but significant correlation was not observed in the northern zone. Patterns of precipitation response may differ widely among basins, and even the response of a given river basin to individual ENSO events also may be changeable. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Shengnan Ni Jianli Chen Clark R. Wilson Jin Li Xiaogong Hu Rong Fu 《Surveys in Geophysics》2018,39(1):1-22
Improved data quality of extended record of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity solutions enables better understanding of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations. Connections of TWS and climate change are critical to investigate regional and global water cycles. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of global connections between interannual TWS changes and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, using multiple sources of data, including GRACE measurements, land surface model (LSM) predictions and precipitation observations. We use cross-correlation and coherence spectrum analysis to examine global connections between interannual TWS changes and the Niño 3.4 index, and select four river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Colorado, and Lena) for more detailed analysis. The results indicate that interannual TWS changes are strongly correlated with ENSO over much of the globe, with maximum cross-correlation coefficients up to ~0.70, well above the 95% significance level (~0.29) derived by the Monte Carlo experiments. The strongest correlations are found in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in the Amazon, Orinoco, and La Plata basins. While both GRACE and LSM TWS estimates show reasonably good correlations with ENSO and generally consistent spatial correlation patterns, notably higher correlations are found between GRACE TWS and ENSO. The existence of significant correlations in middle–high latitudes shows the large-scale impact of ENSO on the global water cycle. 相似文献
13.
The tropical Pacific experienced a sustained warm sea surface condition that started in 2014 and a very strong El Nio event in 2015. One striking feature of this event was the horseshoe-like pattern of positive subsurface thermal anomalies that was sustained in the western-central equatorial Pacific throughout 2014–2015. Observational data and an intermediate ocean model are used to describe the sea surface temperature(SST) evolution during 2014–2015. Emphasis is placed on the processes involved in the 2015 El Nio event and their relationships with SST anomalies, including remote effects associated with the propagation and reflection of oceanic equatorial waves(as indicated in sea level(SL) signals) at the boundaries and local effects of the positive subsurface thermal anomalies. It is demonstrated that the positive subsurface thermal anomaly pattern that was sustained throughout 2014–2015 played an important role in maintaining warm SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. Further analyses of the SST budget revealed the dominant processes contributing to SST anomalies during 2014–2015. These analyses provide an improved understanding of the extent to which processes associated with the 2015 El Nio event are consistent with current El Nio and Southern Oscillation theories. 相似文献
14.
Simulation outputs were used to contrast the distinct evolution patterns between two types of El Niño. The modeled isotherm depth anomalies closely matched satellite sea surface height anomalies. Results for the El Niño Modoki (central Pacific El Niño) corresponded well with previous studies which suggested that thermocline variations in the equatorial Pacific contain an east–west oscillation. The eastern Pacific El Niño experienced an additional north–south seesaw oscillation between approximately 15° N and 15° S. The wind stress curl pattern over the west-central Pacific was responsible for the unusual manifestation of the eastern Pacific El Niño. The reason why the 1982/1983 El Niño was followed by a normal state whereas a La Niña phase developed from the 1997/1998 El Niño is also discussed. In 1997/1998, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) retreated faster and easterly trade winds appeared immediately after the mature El Niño, cooling the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific and generating the La Niña event. The slow retreat of the ITCZ in 1982/1983 terminated the warm event at a much slower rate and ultimately resulted in a normal phase. 相似文献
15.
本文利用1948-2010年Global Land Data Assimilation System（GLDAS）NOAH陆面模式资料、GPCC月平均降水资料和NCAR/NCEP全球月平均再分析资料,采用滤波、距平合成和线性相关等方法,分析了El Niño成熟位相冬季欧亚大陆积雪异常的分布特征,研究了关键区积雪融化对后期春、夏季土壤湿度、土壤温度以及大气环流与降水的影响,揭示了El Niño事件通过关键区积雪储存其强迫信号并影响东亚夏季气候异常的机制和过程.主要结论如下：El Niño成熟阶段冬季伊朗高原、巴尔喀什湖东北部和青藏高原南麓区域是雪深异常的三个关键区,这些区域的雪深、雪融和土壤湿度有明显的正相关;这三个关键区雪深异常通过春季融雪将冬季El Niño信号传递给春、夏季局地土壤湿度,通过减少感热通量和增加潜热通量对大气环流产生影响;春末夏初伊朗高原土壤湿度异常对东亚夏季气候异常的影响最大,其引起的降水异常与El Niño次年夏季降水异常分布基本一致,春夏季青藏高原南麓和巴尔喀什湖附近土壤湿度也都明显增加,均会对中国华北降水增加有显著正贡献.总之,在利用El Niño事件研究和预测东亚夏季气候异常时,还应考虑关键区雪深异常对El Niño信号的存储和调制作用. 相似文献
16.
Nancy Pérez-Morga Thomas Kretzschmar Tereza Cavazos Stephen V. Smith Francisco Munoz-Arriola 《Geofísica Internacional》2013,52(3):277-291
Extreme wet and dry years (± 1 standard deviation, respectively), as well as the top 95 percentile (P95) of daily precipitation events, derived from tropical cyclone (TC) and nontropical cyclone (NTC) rainfall, were analyzed in coastal river basins in Southern Oaxaca, Mexico (Río Verde, Río Tehuantepec, and the Southern Coast). The study is based on daily precipitation records from 47 quality-controlled stations for the 1961 to 1990 period and TC data for the Eastern Tropical Pacific (EPAC). The aim of this study was to evaluate extreme (dry and wet) trends in the annual contribution of daily P95 precipitation events and to determine the relationship of summer precipitation with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacifical Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A regionalization based on a rotated principal component analysis (PCA) was used to produce four precipitation regions in the coastal river basins. A significant negative correlation (significance at the 95% level) was only found with ONI in rainfall Region 3, nearest to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wet years, mainly linked to TC-derived P95 precipitation events, were associated with SST anomalies (≥?0.6°C) similar to weak La Niña and Neutral cool conditions, while dry years were associated with SST positive anomalies similar to Neutral warm conditions (≤?0.5°C). The largest contribution of extreme P95 precipitation derived from TCs to the annual precipitation was observed in Region 3. A significant upward trend in the contribution of TC-derived precipitation to the annual precipitation was found only in Region 1, low Río Verde. 相似文献
17.
The influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on monthly mean river flows of 12 rivers in the extreme south of South America in the 20th century is analysed. The original dataset of each river is divided into two subsets, i.e. warm ENSO events or El Niño, and cold ENSO events or La Niña. The elements of the subsets are composites of 24 consecutive months, from January of the year when the ENSO event begins to December of the following year. The ENSO signal is analysed by comparing the monthly mean value of each subset to the long-term monthly mean. The results reveal that, in general, monthly mean El Niño (La Niña) river flows are predominantly larger (smaller) than the long-term monthly mean in the rivers studied. The anomalies are more evident during the second half of the year in which the event starts and the first months of the following year. 相似文献
18.
In this work, we analyzed time-series and trends of the tropical belt edges and widths with three methods based on the tropopause using new global positioning system radio occultation(GPS RO) data from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate(COSMIC) mission for September 2006–February 2014. The results from the three methods agreed well with previous studies and new features were found. To avoid the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation(QBO) influence, we applied a simple multiple linear regression model to the monthly anomalies to obtain the tropical belt edges and width trends. During the study, we found equatorward movements of the tropical belt edges on both hemispheres. The narrowing of the tropical belt mainly occurred in the Pacific Ocean. We also found that the deseasonalized monthly anomalies of the tropical belt width were closely related with the ENSO and QBO. The tropical belt at a height of 15 km was mostly closely related with the ENSO. The correlations between the QBO and the tropical belt were consistent for the three methods. 相似文献
19.
2015年11—12月,全国接连发生七次大范围、持续性雾霾天气过程,其中,11月27日—12月1日的雾霾天气过程持续时间长达五天,成为2015年最强的一次重污染天气过程;12月19-25日重度雾霾再次发展,影响面积一度达到35.2万km~2.本文利用多种数据资料通过个例对比和历史统计详细分析了超强El Ni?o背景下雾霾天气频发的天气气候条件.其结果清楚表明:2015年11—12月欧亚中高纬度以纬向环流为主,东亚冬季风偏弱,使得影响我国的冷空气活动偏少,我国中东部大部地区对流层低层盛行异常偏南风,大气相对湿度明显偏大,并且大气层结稳定,对流层底层存在明显逆温.上述大气环流条件使得污染物的水平和垂直扩散条件差,因此在有一定污染排放的情况下,造成了重度雾霾天气过程的频发.由此,超强El Ni?o事件所导致的大尺度大气环流异常是我国中东部,尤其华北地区冬季雾霾天气频发的重要原因之一. 相似文献