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1.
This paper considers how farmers perceive and respond to climate change policy risks, and suggests that understanding these risk responses is as important as understanding responses to biophysical climate change impacts. Based on a survey of 162 farmers in California, we test three hypotheses regarding climate policy risk: (1) that perceived climate change risks will have a direct impact on farmer's responses to climate policy risks, (2) that previous climate change experiences will influence farmer's climate change perceptions and climate policy risk responses, and (3) that past experiences with environmental policies will more strongly affect a farmer's climate change beliefs, risks, and climate policy risk responses. Using a structural equation model we find support for all three hypotheses and furthermore show that farmers’ negative past policy experiences do not make them less likely to respond to climate policy risks through participation in a government incentive program. We discuss how future research and climate policies can be structured to garner greater agricultural participation. This work highlights that understanding climate policy risk responses and other social, economic and policy perspectives is a vital component of understanding climate change beliefs, risks and behaviors and should be more thoroughly considered in future work. 相似文献
2.
Emil Erjavec Tina Volk Miroslav Rednak Barbara Zagorc Ben Moljk 《Climate Policy》2013,13(8):1014-1030
This article analyses the interactions between agricultural policy measures in the EU and the factors affecting GHG emissions from agriculture on the one hand, and the adaptation of agriculture to climate change on the other. To this end, the article uses Slovenia as a case study, assessing the extent to which Slovenian agricultural policy is responding to the challenges of climate change. All agricultural policy measures related to the 2007–2013 programming period were analysed according to a new methodological approach that is based on a qualitative (expert evaluation) and a quantitative (budgetary transfers validation) assessment. A panel of experts reached consensus on the key factors through which individual measures affect climate change, in which direction and how significantly. Data on budgetary funds for each measure were used as weights to assess their relative importance. The results show that there are not many measures in (Slovenian) agricultural policy that are directly aimed at reducing GHG emissions from agriculture or at adaptation to climate change. Nevertheless, most affect climate change, and their impact is far from negligible. Current measures have both positive and negative impacts, but overall the positive impacts prevail. Measures that involve many beneficiaries and more budgetary funds had the strongest impact on aggregate assessments. In light of climate change, agricultural policy should pay more attention to measures that are aimed at raising the efficiency of animal production, as it is the principal source of GHG emissions from agriculture.Policy relevanceAgricultural policy must respond to climate challenges and climate change impact assessment must be included in the process of forming European agricultural policy. Agricultural policy measures that contribute to the reduction of emissions and adaptation, whilst acting in synergy with other environmental, economic and social goals, should be promoted. The approach used in this study combines qualitative and quantitative data, yielding an objective assessment of the climate impact of agricultural policy measures and providing policy makers with a tool for either ex ante or ex post evaluations of climate-relevant policy measures. 相似文献
3.
Robin Pouteau Jean-Yves Meyer Pauline Blanchard Joel H. Nitta Maruiti Terorotua Ravahere Taputuarai 《Climatic change》2016,137(1-2):143-156
Coastal sector impacts from sea level rise (SLR) are a key component of the projected economic damages of climate change, a major input to decision-making and design of climate policy. Moreover, the ultimate global costs to coastal resources will depend strongly on adaptation, society’s response to cope with the local impacts. This paper presents a new open-source optimization model to assess global coastal impacts from SLR from the perspective of economic efficiency. The Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM) determines the optimal strategy for adaptation at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments, as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006), based on their socioeconomic characteristics and the potential impacts of relative sea level rise and uncertain sea level extremes. A deterministic application of CIAM demonstrates the model’s ability to assess local impacts and direct costs, choose the least-cost adaptation, and estimate global net damages for several climate scenarios that account for both global and local components of SLR (Kopp et al. 2014). CIAM finds that there is large potential for coastal adaptation to reduce the expected impacts of SLR compared to the alternative of no adaptation, lowering global net present costs through 2100 by a factor of seven to less than $1.7 trillion, although this does not include initial transition costs to overcome an under-adapted current state. In addition to producing aggregate estimates, CIAM results can also be interpreted at the local level, where retreat (e.g., relocate inland) is often a more cost-effective adaptation strategy than protect (e.g., construct physical defenses). 相似文献
4.
Michael Oppenheimer 《Climatic change》2013,117(3):439-449
The assessment of potential impacts of climate change is progressing from taxonomies and enumeration of the magnitude of potential direct effects on individuals, societies, species, and ecosystems according to a limited number of metrics toward a more integrated approach that also encompasses the vast range of human response to experience and risk. Recent advances are both conceptual and methodological, and include analysis of some consequences of climate change that were heretofore intractable. In this article, I review a selection of these developments and represent them through a handful of illustrative cases. A key characteristic of the emerging areas of interest is a focus on understanding how human responses to direct impacts of climate change may cause important indirect and sometimes distant impacts. This realization underscores the need to develop integrated approaches for assessing and modeling impacts in an evolving socioeconomic and policy context. 相似文献
5.
Climate change is likely to adversely affect many countries throughout the world, but the responses of different countries to this threat vary widely. Attempts to explain the differences in countries’ mitigative policies have been largely deficient. This study seeks to assess the degree to which vulnerability may improve the level of explanation of adopted mitigation policies, studying over 90 countries between 1990 and 2011. Vulnerability is defined to be comprised of two basic factors: impacts (expected damages due to climate change) and adaptive capacity (the ability to adjust to these damages). As there may be a gap between declared and implemented policies, these components of mitigation policy are examined separately. In addition, other variables which mediate between these ‘extreme ends’ of mitigation policies are tested.The effect of vulnerability on climate change mitigation policies is examined by multiple regressions, incorporating a wide range of control variables. The results indicate that climate impacts do not affect mitigation policies. Adaptive capacity has a positive effect on the level of declared policy, but this effect becomes insignificant once implemented policy is examined. However, other tests suggest a possible transition from declarations to actions by high adaptive capacity countries. This finding suggests that high adaptive capacity countries do not view mitigation and adaptation as substitutes. Further analyses indicate that the insignificancy of impacts is caused by the uncertainty in their assessment. 相似文献
6.
Seaports are located in vulnerable areas to climate change impacts: on coasts susceptible to sea-level rise and storms or at mouths of rivers susceptible to flooding. They serve a vital function within the local, regional, and global economy. Their locations in the heart of sensitive estuarine environments make it an imperative to minimize the impacts of natural hazards. Climate impacts, like a projected SLR of .6?m to 2?m and doubling of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes by 2100, will result in more extreme events at many seaports. To assess the current state of knowledge on this issue, we surveyed port authorities from around the world about how administrators felt climate change might impact their operations, what sea-level change would create operational problems, and how they planned to adapt to new environmental conditions. The planned rapid expansion of ports reported by the survey respondents indicates that adaptation measures should be considered as ports construct new infrastructure that may still be in use at the end of the century. Respondents agreed that the ports community needs to address this issue and most felt relatively uninformed about potential climate impacts. Although most ports felt that SLR would not be an issue at their port this century, sea-level rise was nevertheless an issue of great concern. Our results suggest opportunities for the scientific community to engage with port practitioners to prepare proactively for climate change impacts on this sector. 相似文献
7.
The appropriate level of spatial resolution for climate scenarios is a key uncertainty in climate impact studies and regional integrated assessments. To the extent that such uncertainty may affect the magnitude of economic estimates of climate change, it has implications for the public policy debates concerning the efficiency of CO2 control options. In this article, we investigate the effects that different climate scenario resolutions have on economic estimates of the impacts of future climate changeon agriculture in the United States. These results are derived via a set of procedures and an analytical model that has been used previously in climate change assessments. The results demonstrate that the spatial scale of climate scenarios affects the estimates of both regional changes in crop yields and the economic impact on the agricultural sector as a whole. An assessment based on the finer scale climatological information consistently yielded a less favorable assessment of the implications of climate change. Regional indicators of economic activity were of opposite sign in some regions, based on the scenario scale. Such differences in economic magnitudes or signs are potentially important in examining whether past climate change assessments may misstate the economic consequences of such changes. The results reported here suggest that refinement of the spatial scale of scenarios should be carefully considered in future impacts research. 相似文献
8.
The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change and climate extremes in part because they concentrate many activities,
people and wealth in limited areas. As a result they represent an important scale for assessment and understanding of climate
change impacts. This paper provides a conceptual and methodological framework for urban economic impact assessment of climate
change. The focus of the paper is on model-based analysis of future scenarios, including a framing of uncertainty for these
projections, as one valuable input into the decision-making process. The paper highlights the main assessment difficulties,
methods and tools, and selected examples across these areas. A number of challenges are unique to climate change impact assessment
and others are unique to the problem of working at local scales. The paper also identifies the need for additional research,
including the need for more integrated and systemic approaches to address climate change as a part of the urban development
challenge as well as the need to assess the economic impacts of climate change and response policy at local scale. 相似文献
9.
Discerning the general public’s support of climate change policies is a significant part of understanding the political and
social dynamics of mitigating climate change. National level surveys are a useful tool for furthering this understanding but
present multiple challenges, two of which are addressed in this paper. The first challenge is that the U.S. public’s limited
knowledge of climate change issues requires that information is provided in the survey, and that the content of this information
is thought to be critical in eliciting accurate responses. Second, the use of national surveys may mask regional and state
differences that result from the distribution of predicted climate change impacts and varying social contexts. We explore
these issues by assessing the impacts of (a) the provision of information on climate change impacts at different scales (national
and regional) and (b) the respondent’s state of residence (Michigan or Virginia) on climate change policy support. We found
a modest relationship between state of residence and policy support, with Michigan residents less likely to support climate
change mitigation policies than residents of Virginia. The provision of information on the regional versus national level
of predicted impacts of climate change did not influence climate change policy support. 相似文献
10.
M. Mokrech R. J. Nicholls J. A. Richards C. Henriques I. P. Holman S. Shackley 《Climatic change》2008,90(1-2):31-55
Interactive tools developed within the RegIS project for assessing the impacts of flooding provide information to support flood management policies and analyse the performance of possible adaptation activities to climate change. This paper describes the methodologies used in the development of these tools including tidal and fluvial flooding processes with different levels of climate pressures, represented by changes in sea level and peak river flows. Potential impacts of climate change for East Anglia and North West England are explored to the 2050s using four socio-economic scenarios to represent plausible futures. This includes changes in urban land use as well as adaptive responses to flooding comprising dike upgrade and realignment options. The results indicate that future climate will increase flood risk in both regions. East Anglia is more vulnerable to climate change than North West England at the present level of protection, especially in the extensive coastal lowlands of the Fens and Broads because of the combined effects of sea-level rise and increased fluvial flows. Although the present adaptive policy of upgrading defences in East Anglia will reduce the impacts of flooding, this policy is not effective in the case of the more extreme climate change scenarios by 2050s. In this case, more extensive adaptation would be required. 相似文献
11.
Local material and symbolic values have to date remained underrepresented in climate change research and policy and this gap is particularly salient in places that have been identified as at significant risk from climate change. In such places, the dominant approach to understanding the effects of climate change has been centred on vulnerability; it has highlighted the social determinants of vulnerability and the differential and uneven distribution of effects. This approach cannot, however, illuminate the diverse and nuanced meanings people attach to specific aspects of their way of life, how the changing climate might affect these, and what this implies for adaptation. To address this gap, this empirical study uses the concept of values, defined as trans-situational conceptions of the desirable that give meaning to behaviour and events, and influence perception and interpretation of situations and events. We develop a set of values from 53 qualitative interviews in two remote communities in subarctic easternmost Canada. It draws on these values to frame how effects of climate change, specifically intangible and subjective effects, are felt, and how responses to them are imagined by those affected. The article argues that values are crucial in shaping perception of climate impacts and adaptation to them. Distinct values, such as tradition, freedom, harmony, safety, and unity shape different interpretations and meaning of impacts, and lead to distinct views on how to adapt to these. Conflicting and competing values can act as barriers to adaptation. The findings imply that adaptation research and policy need to address values explicitly if efforts for planned adaptation are to be perceived as legitimate and effective by those affected by the changing climate. 相似文献
12.
Lee Hannah Camila I. Donatti Celia A. Harvey Eric Alfaro Daniel Andres Rodriguez Claudia Bouroncle Edwin Castellanos Freddy Diaz Emily Fung Hugo G. Hidalgo Pablo Imbach Peter Läderach Jason P. Landrum Ana Lucía Solano 《Climatic change》2017,141(1):29-45
Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research. 相似文献
13.
A growing body of research documents how individuals respond to local impacts of global climate change and a range of policy efforts aim to help individuals reduce their exposure and improve their livelihoods despite these stressors. Yet there is still limited understanding of how to determine whether and how adaptation is occurring. Through qualitative analysis of focus group interviews, I evaluated individual behavioral responses to local forest stressors that can arguably be linked to global climate change among landowners in the Upper Midwest, USA. I found that landowner responses were planned as well as autonomous, more proactive than reactive, incremental rather than transformational, and aimed at being resilient to change and transitioning to new conditions, rather than resisting change alone. Many of the landowners’ responses can be considered forms of adaptation, rather than coping, because they were aimed at moderating and avoiding harm on long time horizons in anticipation of change. These findings stand in contrast to the short-term, reactive, and incremental responses that current socio-psychological theories of adaptation suggest are more typical at the individual level. This study contributes to scientific understanding of how to evaluate behavioral adaptation to climate change and differentiate it from coping, which is necessary for developing conceptually rigorous analytical frameworks to guide research and policy. 相似文献
14.
Although existing economic research is informative with regard to the importance of including potential ‘catastrophic’ climate change impacts in the analysis of GHG mitigation benefits, the generic and abstract form of the ‘catastrophe’ implemented has led to a lack of specific policy implications. This article provides an important starting point for a discussion of how to improve economic modelling of potential large-scale impacts of climate change. It considers how the term ‘abrupt climate change’ has been used in the scientific literature to describe changes in the climate system and carefully reviews the characteristics of the events that have been discussed in this context. The findings are compared to the way in which the economic literature has modelled potential economic and human welfare impacts of these ‘catastrophic’ events. In general, the economics literature is found to have modelled such impacts in a uniform way that fails to account for differences in relevant end points and timescales. The result is policy recommendations based on events that do not resemble those of concern. Better treatment of these events in integrated assessment modelling would help ensure that future research efforts can serve as meaningful policy input. 相似文献
15.
Key limitations of integrated assessment models (IAMs) are their highly stylized and aggregated representation of climate damages and associated economic responses, as well as the omission of specific investments related to climate change adaptation. This paper proposes a framework for modeling climate impacts and adaptation that clarifies the relevant research issues and provides a template for making improvements. We identify five desirable characteristics of an ideal integrated assessment modeling platform, which we elaborate into a conceptual model that distinguishes three different classes of adaptation-related activities. Based on these elements we specify an impacts- and adaptation-centric IAM, whose optimality conditions are used to highlight the types of functional relationships necessary for realistic representations of adaptation-related decisions, the specific mechanisms by which these responses can be incorporated into IAMs, and the ways in which the inclusion of adaptation is likely to affect the simulations’ results. 相似文献
16.
Impact of climate change on Pacific Northwest hydropower 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The Pacific Northwest (PNW) hydropower resource, central to the region’s electricity supply, is vulnerable to the impacts
of climate change. The Northwest Power and Conservation Council (NWPCC), an interstate compact agency, has conducted long
term planning for the PNW electricity supply for its 2005 Power Plan. In formulating its power portfolio recommendation, the
NWPCC explored uncertainty in variables that affect the availability and cost of electricity over the next 20 years. The NWPCC
conducted an initial assessment of potential impacts of climate change on the hydropower system, but these results are not
incorporated in the risk model upon which the 2005 Plan recommendations are based. To assist in bringing climate information
into the planning process, we present an assessment of uncertainty in future PNW hydropower generation potential based on
a comprehensive set of climate models and greenhouse gas emissions pathways. We find that the prognosis for PNW hydropower
supply under climate change is worse than anticipated by the NWPCC’s assessment. Differences between the predictions of individual
climate models are found to contribute more to overall uncertainty than do divergent emissions pathways. Uncertainty in predictions
of precipitation change appears to be more important with respect to impact on PNW hydropower than uncertainty in predictions
of temperature change. We also find that a simple regression model captures nearly all of the response of a sequence of complex
numerical models to large scale changes in climate. This result offers the possibility of streamlining both top-down impact
assessment and bottom-up adaptation planning for PNW water and energy resources. 相似文献
17.
Sensitivity of Runoff, Soil Moisture and Reservoir Design to Climate Change in Central Indian River Basins 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
R. Mehrotra 《Climatic change》1999,42(4):725-757
Climate change due to a doubling of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and its possible impacts on the hydrological cycle are a matter of growing concern. Hydrologists are specifically interested in an assessment of the impacts on the occurrence and magnitude of runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture and their temporal and spatial redistribution. Such impacts become all the more important as they may also affect the water availability in the storage reservoirs. This paper examines the regional effects of climate change on various components of the hydrologic cycle viz., surface runoff, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration for three drainage basins of central India. Plausible hypothetical scenarios of precipitation and temperature changes are used as input in a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. The influences of climate change on flood, drought, and agriculture are highlighted. The response of hypothetical reservoirs in these drainage basins to climate variations has also been studied. Results indicate that the basin located in a comparatively drier region is more sensitive to climatic changes. The high probability of a significant effect of climate change on reservoir storage, especially for drier scenarios, necessitates the need of a further, more critical analysis of these effects. 相似文献
18.
长江口海平面上升预测及其对滨海湿地影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
选择吴淞站和吕四站2个验潮站数据,通过统计学方法进行长江口海平面上升预测,从而构建了一套长江口地区较完备的海平面上升情景库：以2013年为基准年份,其最佳预测值的范围在2030年、2050年、2100年分别为50~217 mm,118~430 mm,256~1215 mm。以此情景库为基础,探究海平面上升变化对长江口滨海湿地的影响,结果表明：随着海平面上升值的增加,长江口滨海湿地的面积不断减少;在基于验潮站数据作趋势外推得到的情景下,湿地面积减少较平缓,而在考虑全球变暖背景的情景下,湿地面积减少迅速;且不论在何种情景下,时间尺度越大,湿地减少的面积越大。 相似文献
19.
气候变化影响和适应认知的演进及对气候政策的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过分析IPCC第二工作组的5次评估报告对气候变化影响、适应的主要结论和方法的演进、原因以及对国际适应谈判和国家适应政策的影响,指出由于文献的迅速增加,影响评估方法和适应技术手段的不断成熟,以及思维的转变和意识的逐渐增强,IPCC进一步确认了气候变化已经并将继续对自然生态系统和人类社会产生广泛而深刻的影响;未来社会经济发展路径、适应和减缓行动以及风险治理将影响气候变化带来的风险。IPCC报告极大地推动了国际和各国适应气候变化科学研究和政策实践的进程。尽管中国各级各部门已逐渐将适应融入到相关政策中,但仍然存在认识、能力、体制机制等问题,需要进一步推进国家和各地的适应工作。 相似文献
20.
Christoph Schlumpf Claudia Pahl-Wostl Andreas Schönborn Carlo C. Jaeger Dieter Imboden 《Climatic change》2001,51(2):199-241
Participatory Integrated Assessement (IA) methods complement analytical methods like IA-modeling in their explicit inclusion of stakeholders and decision-makers in the assessment. Integrated Assessment is perceived as a process of social learning involving scientists, stakeholders, policymakers and the society at large. We introduce a new approach to provide expert knowledge for participatory integrated assessments of regional climate change: `Interactive Citizen's Information Tools' (ICITs). ICITs provide citizens with expert knowledge about causes of climate change, potential impacts, and policy options to address anthropogenic climate change. In this paper we discuss the development and application of IMPACTS in IA-focus groups in Switzerland. IMPACTS is based on user-friendly hypermedia technologies and allows citizens to get informed on a broad range of potential climate change impacts – with an emphasison prevailing uncertainties. IA-focus groups are deliberative group discussions that make use of computer tools to support the discussion and assessment. The goal of IA-focus groups is to elicit how informed citizens judge the risks of anthropogenic climate change. Experiences with IMPACTS showed that the combination of focus groups with ICITs is a feasible and promising approach for a participatory IA of regional climate change, in particular, and of complex environmental issues, in general. 相似文献