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1.
《Ocean Modelling》2011,39(3-4):251-266
Results are presented from an ensemble prediction study (EPS) of the East Australian Current (EAC) with a specific focus on the examination of the role of dynamical instabilities and flow dependent growing errors. The region where the EAC separates from the coast, is characterized by significant mesoscale eddy variability, meandering and is dominated by nonlinear dynamics thereby representing a severe challenge for operational forecasting. Using analyses from OceanMAPS, the Australian operational ocean forecast system, we explore the structures of flow dependent forecast errors over 7 days and examine the role of dynamical instabilities. Forecast ensemble perturbations are generated using the method of bred vectors allowing the identification of those perturbations to a given initial state that grow most rapidly. We consider a 6 month period spanning the Austral summer that corresponds to the season of maximum eddy variability. We find that the bred vector (BV) structures occur in areas of instability where forecast errors are large and in particular in regions associated with the Tasman Front and EAC extension. We also find that very few BVs are required to identify these regions of large forecast error and on that basis we expect that even a small BV ensemble would prove useful for adaptive sampling and targeted observations. The results presented also suggest that it may be beneficial to supplement the static background error covariances typically used in operational ocean data assimilation systems with flow dependent background errors calculated using a relatively cheap EPS.  相似文献   

2.
Loop Current Frontal Eddies (LCFE) in the Gulf of Mexico are simulated with a regional configuration of the Princeton Ocean Model using a feature-oriented initialization technique. The initialization procedure is based on a prior investigation of stability characteristics of the Loop Current (LC). Zonal channel experiments conducted with a multi-layer intermediate equations model allowed to identify conditions necessary for formation and growth of frontal eddies. The simulations were able to reproduce key features of LCFE-topography interaction in the DeSoto Canyon region observed during the “Eddy Intrusion” study.  相似文献   

3.
The representer method was used by [Ngodock, H.E., Jacobs, G.A., Chen, M., 2006. The representer method, the ensemble Kalman filter and the ensemble Kalman smoother: a comparison study using a nonlinear reduced gravity ocean model. Ocean Modelling 12, 378–400] in a comparison study with the ensemble Kalman filter and smoother involving a 1.5 nonlinear reduced gravity idealized ocean model simulating the Loop Current (LC) and the Loop Current eddies (LCE) in the Gulf of Mexico. It was reported that the representer method was more accurate than its ensemble counterparts, yet it had difficulties fitting the data in the last month of the 4-month assimilation window when the data density was significantly decreased. The authors attributed this failure to increased advective nonlinearities in the presence of an eddy shedding causing the tangent linear model (TLM) to become inaccurate. In a separate study [Ngodock, H.E., Smith, S.R., Jacobs, G.A., 2007. Cycling the representer algorithm for variational data assimilation with the Lorenz attractor. Monthly Weather Review 135 (2), 373–386] applied the cycling representer algorithm to the Lorenz attractor and demonstrated that the cycling solution was able to accurately fit the data within each cycle and beyond the range of accuracy of the TLM, once adjustments were made in the early cycles, thus overcoming the difficulties of the non-cycling solution. The cycling algorithm is used here in assimilation experiments with the nonlinear reduced gravity model. It is shown that the cycling solution overcomes the difficulties encountered by the non-cycling solution due to a limited time range of accuracy of the TLM. Thus, for variational assimilation applications where the TLM accuracy is limited in time, the cycling representer becomes a very powerful and attractive alternative, given that its computational cost is significantly lower than that of the non-cycling algorithm.  相似文献   

4.
Data-based forecasting of beach volumes on monthly to yearly timescales   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Data-based methods for forecasting beach volumes are tested using ground-measured bathymetry from Duck, North Carolina, comprising 26 profiles, 20 year duration and one-month resolution. Derived beach volume time series show weak seasonal and strong event signals. The forecasting methods used are: Holt–Winters (standard and modified), three types of linear regression, and a default forecast in which the latest measurement persists unchanged into the future. Improved forecast accuracies are obtained by two modifications to Holt–Winters, involving an autocorrelation correction and long-term trend-damping, and by smoothing the fitting data using running medians or wavelet approximations. Beach volume forecasts are tested mainly at monthly intervals up to 12 months ahead, with further tests at up to 36 months ahead. Overall, modified Holt–Winters performs best and the default forecast second-best. With an added artificial seasonal signal, modified Holt–Winters outperforms the other methods more substantially.  相似文献   

5.
Application of artificial neural networks in typhoon surge forecasting   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
A typhoon-surge forecasting model was developed with a back-propagation neural network (BPN) in the present paper. The typhoon's characteristics, local meteorological conditions and typhoon surges at a considered tidal station at time t−1 and t were used as input data of the model to forecast typhoon surges at the following time. For the selection of a better forecasting model, four models (Models A–D) were tested and compared under the different composition of the above-mentioned input factors. A general evaluation index that is a composition of four performance indexes was proposed to evaluate the model's overall performance. The result of typhoon-surge forecasting was classified into five grades: A (excellent), B (good), C (fair), D (poor) and E (bad), according to the value of the general evaluation index. Sixteen typhoon events and their corresponding typhoon surges and local meteorological conditions at Ken–fang Tidal Station in the coast of north-eastern Taiwan between 1993 and 2000 were collected, 12 of them were used in model's calibration while the other four were used in model's verification. The analysis of typhoon-surge forecasting results at Ken–fang tidal station show that the Model D composing 18 input factors has better performance, and that it is a suitable BPN-based model in typhoon-surge forecasting. The Model D was also applied to typhoon-surge forecasting at Cheng-kung Tidal Station in south-eastern coast of Taiwan and at Tung-shih Tidal Station in the coast of south-western Taiwan. Results show that the application of Model D in typhoon-surge forecasting at Cheng-kung Tidal Station has better performance than that at Tung-shih Tidal Station.  相似文献   

6.
Changes from winter (July) to summer (February) in mixed layer carbon tracers and nutrients measured in the sub-Antarctic zone (SAZ), south of Australia, were used to derive a seasonal carbon budget. The region showed a strong winter to summer decrease in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC;  45 µmol/kg) and fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO2;  25 µatm), and an increase in stable carbon isotopic composition of DIC (δ13CDIC;  0.5‰), based on data collected between November 1997 and July 1999.The observed mixed layer changes are due to a combination of ocean mixing, air–sea exchange of CO2, and biological carbon production and export. After correction for mixing, we find that DIC decreases by up to 42 ± 3 µmol/kg from winter (July) to summer (February), with δ13CDIC enriched by up to 0.45 ± 0.05‰ for the same period. The enrichment of δ13CDIC between winter and summer is due to the preferential uptake of 12CO2 by marine phytoplankton during photosynthesis. Biological processes dominate the seasonal carbon budget (≈ 80%), while air–sea exchange of CO2 (≈ 10%) and mixing (≈ 10%) have smaller effects. We found the seasonal amplitude of fCO2 to be about half that of a study undertaken during 1991–1995 [Metzl, N., Tilbrook, B. and Poisson, A., 1999. The annual fCO2 cycle and the air–sea CO2 flux in the sub-Antarctic Ocean. Tellus Series B—Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 51(4): 849–861.] for the same region, indicating that SAZ may undergo significant inter-annual variations in surface fCO2. The seasonal DIC depletion implies a minimum biological carbon export of 3400 mmol C/ m2 from July to February. A comparison with nutrient changes indicates that organic carbon export occurs close to Redfield values (ΔP:ΔN:ΔC = 1:16:119). Extrapolating our estimates to the circumpolar sub-Antarctic Ocean implies a minimum organic carbon export of 0.65 GtC from the July to February period, about 5–7% of estimates of global export flux. Our estimate for biological carbon export is an order of magnitude greater than anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the same region and suggests that changes in biological export in the region may have large implications for future CO2 uptake by the ocean.  相似文献   

7.
Wet atmospheric deposition of dissolved N, P and Si species is studied in well-mixed coastal ecosystem to evaluate its potential to stimulate photosynthetic activities in nutrient-depleted conditions. Our results show that, during spring, seawater is greatly depleted in major nutrients: Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN), Dissolved Inorganic Phosphorus (DIP) and Silicic acid (Si), in parallel with an increase of phytoplanktonic biomass. In spring (March–May) and summer (June–September), wet atmospheric deposition is the predominant source (>60%, relative to riverine contribution) for nitrates and ammonium inputs to this N-limited coastal ecosystem. During winter (October–February), riverine inputs of DIN predominate (>80%) and are annually the most important source of DIP (>90%). This situation allows us to calculate the possibility for a significant contribution to primary production in May 2003, from atmospheric deposition (total input for DIN ≈300 kg km−2 month−1). Based on usual Redfield ratios and assuming that all of the atmospheric-derived N (AD-N) in rainwater is bioavailable for phytoplankton growth, we can estimate new production due to AD-N of 950 mg C m−2 month−1, during this period of depletion in the water column. During the same episode (May 2003), photosynthetic activity rate, considered as gross primary production, was estimated to approximately 30 300 mg C m−2 month−1. Calculation indicates that new photosynthetic activity due to wet atmospheric inputs of nitrogen could be up to 3%.  相似文献   

8.
Northern Norwegian shelf regions are highly productive, supporting fisheries rich in commercially important species such as cod, herring and capelin. It has been long recognized that the mesoscale jets, meanders and eddies associated with interactions between the North Atlantic Current, Norwegian Coastal Current and regional bottom topographic features such as troughs, banks and shelfbreaks play important roles in transporting and retaining zooplankton. To investigate zooplankton distributions and their correspondence with the physical fields, three large-scale surveys with mesoscale resolutions on physical and biological fields were conducted in northern Norwegian shelf regions between latitudes 68°15′N and 70°15′N in springs of 2000–2002. Survey results provide insights into the relationships between zooplankton distributions and the physical features such as fronts, the Norwegian Coastal Current and eddies related to topographic features. The physical and biological data are integrated and analyzed focusing on water types, estimation of geostrophic currents from direct current measurements, along-shelf transport of zooplankton, and retention of zooplankton by the mesoscale meander–eddy over a typical bank area on the shelf. The estimated mean transport in the upper 100 m on the shelf in the survey region is approximately 6.4×103 tonnes wet weight day−1 northward. High zooplankton abundances were found over both Malangsgrunnen and Sveinsgrunnen banks. The specific accumulation rate from northward–southward transport in the upper 100 m over Malangsgrunnen was approximately 0.08 day−1, while variable currents with an offshore gradient of zooplankton abundance over Sveinsgrunnen implies an offshore dispersion of coastal-originated zooplankton cohort.  相似文献   

9.
郑青  高山红 《海洋与湖沼》2021,52(6):1350-1364
在黄海海雾的数值模拟中,EnKF（ensemble Kalman filter）是一种优于3DVAR（three-dimensional variational）的数据同化方法。研究发现,对EnKF初始场集合体采取常用的集合平均所产生的确定性预报初始场,会出现初始场中海雾在预报开始后就迅速消失以及接下来海雾难以生成的异常现象。通过详细的海雾个例研究,清晰地揭示并解释了此现象,指出这是集合平均造成初始场中云水与温度湿度之间存在不协调关系所导致的后果,并提出了一种择优加权平均方法来取代常用的集合平均。研究结果表明,海雾确定性预报采用择优加权平均所构建的初始场,可以消除上述异常现象,显著改进海雾模拟效果。  相似文献   

10.
为了改进温带气旋数值预报的精度,基于WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,利用GSI(Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)-EnKF(Ensemble Kalman Filter)系统,设计了一套温带气旋集合预报方法,其具有的2种选择方案通过滤掉质量较差的集合成员从而将集合成员数目控制在10以内,达到了大幅降低集合预报计算量的目的。针对2020年7月一次影响黄海的温带气旋个例,开展了一系列决定性预报与集合预报的数值对比试验。分析结果如下:1)不采取任何择优方案的集合预报效果就已经明显优于决定性预报,而采取择优方案使得预报效果进一步得到提升;2)预报初始时刻择优(直接择优方案)的集合预报效果远不如短时积分3 h后才进行择优(积分择优方案)的预报效果; 3)积分择优方案优于直接择优方案的原因是,初始场集合体中的成员经过短时积分后其误差得以放大而使得择优更加准确。多个例的应用结果进一步表明,本文提出的积分择优方案温带气旋集合预报方法具有较好的业务预报应用前景。  相似文献   

11.
The south-flowing waters of the Kamchatka and Oyashio Currents and west-flowing waters of the Alaskan Stream are key components of the western sub-Arctic Pacific circulation. We use CTD data, Argo buoys, WOCE surface drifters, and satellite-derived sea-level observations to investigate the structure and interannual changes in this system that arise from interactions among anticyclonic eddies and the mean flow. Variability in the temperature of the upstream Oyashio and Kamchatka Currents is evident by warming in mesothermal layer in 1994–2005 compared to 1990–1991. A major fraction of the water in these currents is derived directly from the Alaskan Stream. The stream also sheds large anticyclonic (Aleutian) eddies, averaging approximately 300 km in diameter with a volume transport significant in comparison with that of the Kamchatka Current itself. These eddies enclose pools of relatively warm and saline water whose temperature is typically 4 °C warmer and salinity is 0.4 greater than that of cold-core Kamchatka eddies in the same density range. Aleutian eddies drift at approximately 1.2 km d−1 and retain their distinctive warm and salty characteristics for at least 2 years. Selected westward pathways during 1990–2004 are identified. If the shorter northern route is followed, Aleutian eddies remain close to the stream and persist sufficiently long to carry warm and saline water directly to the Kamchatka Current. This was observed during 1994–1997 with substantial warming of the waters in the Kamchatka Current and upstream Oyashio. If the eddies take a more southern route they detach from the stream but can still contribute significant quantities of warm and saline water to the upstream Oyashio, as in 2004–2005. However, the eddies following this southern route may dissipate before reaching the western boundary current region.  相似文献   

12.
A systematic investigation of fluxes and compositions of lipids through the water column and into sediments was conducted along the U.S. JGOFS EgPac transect from l2°N to l5°S at 140°W. Fluxes of lipids out of the euphotic zone varied spatially and temporally, ranging from ≈0.20 – 0.6 mmol lipid-C m−2 day−1. Lipid fluxes were greatly attenuated with increasing water column depth, dropping to 0.002-0.06 mmol lipid-C m−2 day−1 in deep-water sediment traps. Sediment accumulation rates for lipids were ≈ 0.0002 – 0.00003 mmol lipid-C m−2 day−1. Lipids comprised ≈ 11–23% of Corg in net-plankton, 10–30% in particles exiting the euphotic zone, 2–4% particles in the deep EgPac, and 0.1-1 % in sediments. Lipids were, in general, selectively lost due to their greater reactivity relative to bulk organic matter toward biogeochemical degradation in the water column and sediment. Qualitative changes in lipid compositions through the water column and into sediments are consistent with the reactive nature of lipids. Fatty acids were the most labile compounds, with polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) being quickly lost from particles. Branchedchain C15 and C17 fatty acids increased in relative abundance as particulate matter sank and was incorporated into the sediment, indicating inputs of organic matter from bacteria. Long-chain C39 alkenones of marine origin and long-chain C20-C30 fatty acids, alcohols and hydrocarbons derived from land plants were selectively preserved in sediments. Compositional changes over time and space demonstrate the dynamic range of reactivities among individual biomarker compounds, and hence of organic matter as a whole. A thorough understanding of biogeochemical reprocessing of organic matter in the oceanic water column and sediments is, thus, essential for using the sediment record for reconstructing past oceanic environments.  相似文献   

13.
The observed recent freshening trend in the deep North Atlantic and the Labrador Sea is investigated in three forced ensembles and a long control simulations using the HadCM3 coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea-ice climate model. The 40 yr freshening trend during the late half of the 20th century is captured in the all forcings ensemble that applies all major external (natural and anthropogenic) forcing factors. Each ensemble has four members with different initial conditions taking from the control run at a 100 yr interval. No similar freshening trend is found in each of the four corresponding periods of the control simulation. However, there are five large freshening events in a 1640 yr period of the control run, each following a sudden salinity increase. A process analysis revealed that the increase in salinity in the Labrador Sea is closely linked to deep convections while the following freshening trend is accompanied by a period of very weak convective activities.The fact that none of the five large freshening events appears in the four corresponding periods following the initial conditions of the four members of the all forcings ensemble suggest that external forcings may have contributed to triggering the events. Further analyses of two other ensemble simulations (natural forcings only and anthropogenic forcings only) have shown that natural rather than anthropogenic factors are responsible. Based on our model results, we can not attribute the simulated freshening to anthropogenic climate change.  相似文献   

14.
对地球系统模式FIO-ESM同化实验中北极海冰模拟的评估   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
舒启  乔方利  鲍颖  尹训强 《海洋学报》2015,37(11):33-40
本文评估了地球系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model)基于集合调整Kalman滤波同化实验对1992-2013年北极海冰的模拟能力。结果显示:尽管同化资料只包括了全球海表温度和全球海面高度异常两类数据,而并没有对海冰进行同化,但实验结果能很好地模拟出与观测相符的北极海冰基本态和长期变化趋势,卫星观测和FIO-ESM同化实验所得的北极海冰覆盖范围在1992-2013年间的线性变化趋势分别为-7.06×105和-6.44×105 km2/(10a),同化所得的逐月海冰覆盖范围异常和卫星观测之间的相关系数为0.78。与FIO-ESM参加CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)实验结果相比,该同化结果所模拟的北极海冰覆盖范围的长期变化趋势和海冰密集度的空间变化趋势均与卫星观测更加吻合,这说明该同化可为利用FIO-ESM开展北极短期气候预测提供较好的预测初始场。  相似文献   

15.
Mesoscale eddies and tropical instability waves in the eastern tropical Pacific, first revealed by satellite infrared imagery, play an important role in the dynamics and biology of the region, and in the transfer of mass, energy, heat, and biological constituents from the shelf to the deep ocean and across the equatorial currents.From boreal late autumn to early spring, four to 18 cyclonic or anticyclonic eddies are formed off the coastal region between southern Mexico and Panama. The anticyclonic gyres, which tend to be larger and last longer than the cyclonic ones, are the best studied: they typically are 180–500 km in diameter, depress the pycnocline from 60 to 145 m at the eddy center, have swirl speeds in excess of 1 m s−1, migrate west at velocities ranging from 11 to 19 cm s−1 (with a slight southward component), and maintain a height signature of up to 30 cm. The primary generating agents for these eddies are the strong, intermittent wind jets that blow across the isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico, the lake district in Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and the Panama canal. Other proposed eddy-generating mechanisms are the conservation of vorticity as the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) turns north on reaching America, and the instability of coastally trapped waves/currents.Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) are perturbations in the SST fronts on either side of the equatorial cold tongue. They produce SST variations on the order of 1–2 °C, have periods of 20–40 days, wavelengths of 1000–2000 km, phase speeds of around 0.5 m s−1 and propagate westward both north and south of the Equator. The Tropical Instability Vortices (TIVs) are a train of westward-propagating anticyclonic eddies associated with the TIWs. They exhibit eddy currents exceeding 1.3 m s−1, a westward phase propagation speed between 30 and 40 km d−1, a signature above the pycnocline, and eastward energy propagation. Like the TIWs, they result from the latitudinal barotropically unstable shear between the South Equatorial Current (SEC) and the NECC with a potential secondary source of energy from baroclinic instability of the vertical shear with the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC).This review of mesoscale processes is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.  相似文献   

16.
Seasonal new production (g C m−2) estimates obtained from dissolved oxygen and nitrate concentrations in surface waters (5 m depth) along a track between the UK (Portsmouth) and northern Spain (Bilbao) are compared. An oxygen flux method, in combination with a ship of opportunity (SOO), was tested on the northwest European shelf for its value in distinguishing high production in frontal regions. Dissolved oxygen, nitrate and chlorophyll a samples were collected monthly from February to July 2004, alongside continuous autonomous measurements of salinity, temperature and chlorophyll fluorescence. Depth integrated new production estimates for all the individually analysed hydrographic regions of the route were produced.Results from three widely used gas-exchange parameterizations gave seasonal (February–July) new production estimates of 54–68 g C m−2 for the Ushant region of the western English Channel and 31–40 g C m−2 for the shelf slope, averaging 24–31 g C m−2 for the route. This is double the route average obtained using the nitrate assimilation method (17 g C m−2) and within the ranges of previous estimates in the same region. The oxygen flux method gave a fivefold enhancement compared to the nitrate method in the Ushant frontal region and a threefold enhancement in the English Channel and shelf break regions. Determining oxygen fluxes to estimate new production may be more reliable than nitrate assimilation in active tidal or frontal regions of shelves where nitrate may be added to the system post-winter through advection or entrainment.  相似文献   

17.

Sea surface temperature (SST) prediction based on the multi-model seasonal forecast with numerous ensemble members have more useful skills to estimate the possibility of climate events than individual models. Hence, we assessed SST predictability in the North Pacific (NP) from multi-model seasonal forecasts. We used 23 years of hindcast data from three seasonal forecasting systems in the Copernicus Climate Change Service to estimate the prediction skill based on temporal correlation. We evaluated the predictability of the SST from the ensemble members' width spread, and co-variability between the ensemble mean and observation. Our analysis revealed that areas with low prediction skills were related to either the large spread of ensemble members or the ensemble members not capturing the observation within their spread. The large spread of ensemble members reflected the high forecast uncertainty, as exemplified in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region in July. The ensemble members not capturing the observation indicates the model bias; thus, there is room for improvements in model prediction. On the other hand, the high prediction skills of the multi-model were related to the small spread of ensemble members that captures the observation, as in the central NP in January. Such high predictability is linked to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via teleconnection.

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18.
High-resolution models can reproduce mesoscale dynamics and the variability in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), but cannot provide accurate locations of currents without data assimilation (DA). We use the computationally cheap Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) in conjunction with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) model for assimilating altimetry data. The covariance matrix extracted from a historical ensemble, is three-dimensional and multivariate. This study shows that the multivariate correlations with sea level anomaly are coherent with the known dynamics of the area at two locations: the central part of the GOM and the upper slope of the northern shelf. The correlations in the first location are suitable for an eddy forecasting system, but the correlations in the second location show some limitations due to seasonal variability. The multivariate relationships between variables are reasonably linear, as assumed by the EnOI. Our DA set-up produces little noise that is dampened within 2 d, when the model is pulled strongly towards observations. Part of it is caused by density perturbations in the isopycnal layers, or artificial caballing. The DA system is demonstrated for a realistic case of Loop Current eddy shedding, namely Eddy Yankee.  相似文献   

19.
Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) to coastal southern Rhode Island was estimated from measurements of the naturally-occurring radioisotopes 226Ra (t1/2 = 1600 y) and 228Ra (t1/2 = 5.75 y). Surface water and porewater samples were collected quarterly in Winnapaug, Quonochontaug, Ninigret, Green Hill, and Pt. Judith–Potter Ponds, as well as nearly monthly in the surface water of Rhode Island Sound, from January 2002 to August 2003; additional porewater samples were collected in August 2005. Surface water activities ranged from 12–83 dpm 100 L− 1 (60 dpm = 1 Bq) and 21–256 dpm 100 L− 1 for 226Ra and 228Ra, respectively. Porewater 226Ra activities ranged from 16–736 dpm 100 L− 1 (2002–2003) and 95–815 dpm 100 L− 1 (2005), while porewater 228Ra activities ranged from 23–1265 dpm 100 L− 1. Combining these data with a simple box model provided average 226Ra-based submarine groundwater fluxes ranging from 11–159 L m− 2 d− 1 and average 228Ra-derived fluxes of 15–259 L m− 2 d− 1. Seasonal changes in Ra-derived SGD were apparent in all ponds as well as between ponds, with SGD values of 30–472 L m− 2 d− 1 (Winnapaug Pond), 6–20 L m− 2 d− 1 (Quonochontaug Pond), 36–273 L m− 2 d− 1 (Ninigret Pond), 29–76 L m− 2 d− 1 (Green Hill Pond), and 19–83 L m− 2 d− 1 (Pt. Judith–Potter Pond). These Ra-derived fluxes are up to two orders of magnitude higher than results predicted by a numerical model of groundwater flow, estimates of aquifer recharge for the study period, and values published in previous Ra-based SGD studies in Rhode Island. This disparity may result from differences in the type of flow (recirculated seawater versus fresh groundwater) determined using each technique, as well as variability in porewater Ra activity.  相似文献   

20.
台风风暴潮异模式集合数值预报技术研究及应用   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
台风风暴潮数值预报的准确性在很大程度上取决于台风路径预报和强度预报的精度以及风暴潮预报模型的计算精度。目前,国际上24/48 h台风路径预报平均误差分别约为120/210 km左右[1],对于走向异常的台风误差更大;更有,根据单一的台风路径和单族的风暴潮数值预报模式并不能保证获得可靠的风暴潮预报结果。考虑多重网格法原理具有在疏密不同的网格层上进行迭代以达到平滑不同频率的误差分量,使得计算快速收敛,精度提高的特性。在前期研究基础上基于业务化高分辨率(结构网格/有限差分算法)和精细化(非结构网格/有限元算法)台风风暴潮集合数值预报模型构建多模型台风风暴潮集合数值预报系统。采用"非同族"模型进行集合预报很大程度上降低了误差相似遗传的可能性。应用该方法对典型台风风暴潮过程进行了试应用,试报结果表明:该方法对风暴潮增、减水预报效果高于单一集合预报,具有一定的应用前景。  相似文献   

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