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1.
This paper presents the verification results for nowcasts of seven categorical variables from an integrated weighted model (INTW) and the underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Nowcasting, or short range forecasting (0–6 h), over complex terrain with sufficient accuracy is highly desirable but a very challenging task. A weighting, evaluation, bias correction and integration system (WEBIS) for generating nowcasts by integrating NWP forecasts and high frequency observations was used during the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games as part of the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) project. Forecast data from Canadian high-resolution deterministic NWP system with three nested grids (at 15-, 2.5- and 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) were selected as background gridded data for generating the integrated nowcasts. Seven forecast variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind gust, visibility, ceiling and precipitation rate are treated as categorical variables for verifying the integrated weighted forecasts. By analyzing the verification of forecasts from INTW and the NWP models among 15 sites, the integrated weighted model was found to produce more accurate forecasts for the 7 selected forecast variables, regardless of location. This is based on the multi-categorical Heidke skill scores for the test period 12 February to 21 March 2010.  相似文献   

2.
An automated short-range forecasting system, adaptive blending of observations and model (ABOM), was tested in real time during the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in British Columbia. Data at 1-min time resolution were available from a newly established, dense network of surface observation stations. Climatological data were not available at these new stations. This, combined with output from new high-resolution numerical models, provided a unique and exciting setting to test nowcasting systems in mountainous terrain during winter weather conditions. The ABOM method blends extrapolations in time of recent local observations with numerical weather predictions (NWP) model predictions to generate short-range point forecasts of surface variables out to 6 h. The relative weights of the model forecast and the observation extrapolation are based on performance over recent history. The average performance of ABOM nowcasts during February and March 2010 was evaluated using standard scores and thresholds important for Olympic events. Significant improvements over the model forecasts alone were obtained for continuous variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The small improvements to forecasts of variables such as visibility and ceiling, subject to discontinuous changes, are attributed to the persistence component of ABOM.  相似文献   

3.
This paper presents the verification results of nowcasts of four continuous variables generated from an integrated weighted model and underlying Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Real-time monitoring of fast changing weather conditions and the provision of short term forecasts, or nowcasts, in complex terrain within coastal regions is challenging to do with sufficient accuracy. A recently developed weighting, evaluation, bias correction and integration system was used in the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 project to generate integrated weighted forecasts (INTW) out to 6 h. INTW forecasts were generated with in situ observation data and background gridded forecasting data from Canadian high-resolution deterministic NWP system with three nested grids at 15-, 2.5- and 1-km horizontal grid-spacing configurations. In this paper, the four variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind gust are treated as continuous variables for verifying the INTW forecasts. Fifteen sites were selected for the comparison of the model performances. The results of the study show that integrating surface observation data with the NWP forecasts produce better statistical scores than using either the NWP forecasts or an objective analysis of observed data alone. Overall, integrated observation and NWP forecasts improved forecast accuracy for the four continuous variables. The mean absolute errors from the INTW forecasts for the entire test period (12 February to 21 March 2010) are smaller than those from NWP forecasts with three configurations. The INTW is the best and most consistent performer among all models regardless of location and variable analyzed.  相似文献   

4.
ABSTRACT

The low density of meteorological stations in parts of Canada necessitates using numerical weather prediction (NWP)/assimilation output for hydrological modelling. In this study, comparisons are made of simulated land surface variables when using field observations versus NWP output as forcing for two well-instrumented sites: the mountainous and forested Marmot Creek Basin (MCRB) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, and a prairie cropland/grassland site (Kenaston). The Canadian Land Surface Scheme 3.6 (CLASS) was used for modelling. The Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model with Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) was also used as forcing. There was good agreement between observed meteorology and GEM/CaPA, though some deficiencies in GEM/CaPA were identified: the effects of sub-grid topography on incoming radiation and wind speed were not accounted for at MCRB, and CaPA did not capture some convective rainfall events at Kenaston. CLASS simulations using both sets of forcing showed difficulties in simulating snow depth, soil moisture and evapotranspiration; certain difficulties were linked to GEM/CaPA deficiencies and/or CLASS. Both sets of forcing tended to overestimate the duration of snow cover at MCRB, but during different years. With GEM/CaPA as forcing, CLASS overestimated the duration of frozen soils. The GEM/CaPA precipitation difficulties at Kenaston degraded soil moisture simulations.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR E. Volpi  相似文献   

5.
A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0–6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.  相似文献   

6.
A Central-European nowcasting system which has been developed for use in mountainous terrain is tested in the Whistler/Vancouver area as part of the SNOW-V10 experiment. The integrated nowcasting through comprehensive analysis system provides hourly updated gridded forecasts of temperature, humidity, and wind, as well as precipitation forecasts which are updated every 15 min. It is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) output and real-time surface weather station and radar data. Verification of temperature, relative humidity, and wind against surface stations shows that forecast errors are significantly reduced in the nowcasting range compared to those of the driving NWP model. The main contribution to the improvement comes from the implicit bias correction due to use of the latest observations. Relative humidity shows the longest lasting effect, with >50 % reduction of mean absolute error up to +4 h. For temperature and wind speed this percentage is reached after +2 and +3 h, respectively. Two cases of precipitation nowcasting are discussed and verified qualitatively.  相似文献   

7.
Land surface processes and their initialisation are of crucial importance for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). Current land data assimilation systems used to initialise NWP models include snow depth analysis, soil moisture analysis, soil temperature and snow temperature analysis. This paper gives a review of different approaches used in NWP to initialise land surface variables. It discusses the observation availability and quality, and it addresses the combined use of conventional observations and satellite data. Based on results from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), results from different soil moisture and snow depth data assimilation schemes are shown. Both surface fields and low-level atmospheric variables are highly sensitive to the soil moisture and snow initialisation methods. Recent developments of ECMWF in soil moisture and snow data assimilation improved surface and atmospheric forecast performance.  相似文献   

8.
Short‐term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) can be achieved from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models or radar nowcasting, that is the extrapolation of the precipitation at a future time from consecutive radar scans. Hybrid forecasts obtained by merging rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasting and NWP models are potentially more skilful than either radar nowcasts or NWP rainfall forecasts alone. This paper provides an assessment of deterministic and probabilistic high‐resolution QPFs achieved by implementing the Short‐term Ensemble Prediction System developed by the UK Met Office. Both radar nowcasts and hybrid forecasts have been performed. The results show that the performance of both deterministic nowcasts and deterministic hybrid forecasts decreases with increasing rainfall intensity and spatial resolution. The results also show that the blending with the NWP forecasts improves the performance of the forecasting system. Probabilistic hybrid forecasts have been obtained through the modelling of a stochastic noise component to produce a number of equally likely ensemble members, and the comparative assessment of deterministic and probabilistic hybrid forecasts shows that the probabilistic forecasting system is characterised by a higher discrimination accuracy than the deterministic one. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
A limited domain, coastal ocean forecast system consisting of an unstructured grid model, a meteorological model, a regional ocean model, and a global tidal database is designed to be globally relocatable. For such a system to be viable, the predictability of coastal currents must be well understood with error sources clearly identified. To this end, the coastal forecast system is applied at the mouth of Chesapeake Bay in response to a Navy exercise. Two-day forecasts are produced for a 10-day period from 4 to 14 June 2010 and compared to real-time observations. Interplay between the temporal frequency of the regional model boundary forcing and the application of external tides to the coastal model impacts the tidal characteristics of the coastal current, even contributing a small phase error. Frequencies of at least 3 h are needed to resolve the tidal signal within the regional model; otherwise, externally applied tides from a database are needed to capture the tidal variability. Spatial resolution of the regional model (3 vs 1 km) does not impact skill of the current prediction. Tidal response of the system indicates excellent representation of the dominant M 2 tide for water level and currents. Diurnal tides, especially K 1, are amplified unrealistically with the application of coarse 27-km winds. Higher-resolution winds reduce current forecast error with the exception of wind originating from the SSW, SSE, and E. These winds run shore parallel and are subject to strong interaction with the shoreline that is poorly represented even by the 3-km wind fields. The vertical distribution of currents is also well predicted by the coastal model. Spatial and temporal resolution of the wind forcing including areas close to the shoreline is the most critical component for accurate current forecasts. Additionally, it is demonstrated that wind resolution plays a large role in establishing realistic thermal and density structures in upwelling prone regions.  相似文献   

10.
Several statistical postprocessing methods are applied to results from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to test the potential for increasing the accuracy of its local precipitation forecasts. Categorical (Yes/No) forecasts for 12hr precipitation sums equalling or exceeding 0.1, 2.0 and 5.0 mm are selected for improvement. The two 12hr periods 0600-1800 UTC and 1800-0600 UTC are treated separately based on NWP model initial times 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC, respectively. Input data are taken from three successive summer seasons, April-September, 1994-96. The forecasts are prepared and verified for five synoptic stations, four located in the western Czech Republic, and one in Germany near the Czech-German border. Two approaches to statistical postprocessing are tested. The first uses Model Output Statistics (MOS) and the second modifies the MOS approach by applying a successive learning technique (SLT). For each approach several statistical models for the relationship between NWP model predictors and predictand were studied. An independent data set is used for forecast verification with the skill measured by a True Skill Score. The results of the statistical postprocessing are compared with the direct model precipitation forecasts from gridpoints nearest the stations, and they show that both postprocessing approaches provide substantially better forecasts than the direct NWP model output. The relative improvement increases with increasing precipitation amount and there is no significant difference in performance between the two 12hr periods. The skill of the SLT does not depend significantly on the size of the initial learning sample, but its results are nevertheless comparable with the results obtained from the MOS approach, which requires larger developmental samples.  相似文献   

11.
There are several levels of models for the snowmelt process in terms of the snow thermal structure: isothermal, bi-layered and multi-layered models. However, it is difficult to choose the appropriate level of complexity for application because the number of unknown variables is crucial in model handling. One of the major issues in energy balance snow models is the shape of the snow temperature vertical profile. This profile, if taken as a specified function, would simplify a snowmelt model calibration and computation significantly. In this study, in order to determine the appropriate representative snow vertical thermal profile, snow temperature measurements have been performed using five snow thermocouples placed vertically along an observation tower with insulating arms. Also, as a field experimental study of an energy balance snow model, the net radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed along with the vertical one dimensional snow temperature profile have been observed at a field site in Lake Tahoe Basin. The computational results correspond with the measured snow temperature profile and snow water equivalent reasonably well. It is illustrated that the temperature in the snow near surface (called the “active layer”) varies daily, and the lower snow layer (called the “inactive layer”) is barely affected by the atmosphere. The results of field observations and the numerical experiments show that the vertical temperature distributions in the active layer, which is the upper layer affected by energy exchange with the atmosphere, generally have an exponential shape during night time under cold weather, while snow pack stays around 0 °C during daytime. Both of the results indicate that not only the snow temperature in the top active layer, but also the thickness of snow active layer fluctuates during the snowmelt process. The observation results show that the thickness of the active layer may reach about 60 cm in Sierra Nevada, California. These results provide significant information for the development of appropriate approximations in physically based snowmelt modeling.  相似文献   

12.
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13.
Statistical postprocessing of NWP model outputs is applied to maximum and minimum temperature forecasts. Two approaches to its application are effected to local short-range weather forecasts of minimum and maximum temperatures: Model Output Statistics and modified Perfect Prognosis. The modified Perfect Prognosis method is restricted to the first step of PP because of the significant difference between the horizontal resolution of the available objective analyses and the NWP model outputs. The modified Perfect Prognosis method uses actual data from the objective analysis related to the forecast period instead of the NWP forecast. The results are compared with a simple statistical prognostic model, which does not utilize the NWP model outputs, and with simple reference methods. The forecast is verified using ground station measurements from stations providing SYNOP reports. The results show that the predictive accuracy of the Model Output Statistics method is not very different from that of the modified Perfect Prognosis method, and both are significantly more accurate than the direct predictions of the NWP model. The results have confirmed that statistical postprocessing is able to make localized predictions even if lowresolution data are used.  相似文献   

14.
A dynamical model was experimentally implemented to provide high resolution forecasts at points of interests in the 2010 Vancouver Olympics and Paralympics Region. In a first experiment, GEM-Surf, the near surface and land surface modeling system, is driven by operational atmospheric forecasts and used to refine the surface forecasts according to local surface conditions such as elevation and vegetation type. In this simple form, temperature and snow depth forecasts are improved mainly as a result of the better representation of real elevation. In a second experiment, screen level observations and operational atmospheric forecasts are blended to drive a continuous cycle of near surface and land surface hindcasts. Hindcasts of the previous day conditions are then regarded as today’s optimized initial conditions. Hence, in this experiment, given observations are available, observation driven hindcasts continuously ensure that daily forecasts are issued from improved initial conditions. GEM-Surf forecasts obtained from improved short-range hindcasts produced using these better conditions result in improved snow depth forecasts. In a third experiment, assimilation of snow depth data is applied to further optimize GEM-Surf’s initial conditions, in addition to the use of blended observations and forecasts for forcing. Results show that snow depth and summer temperature forecasts are further improved by the addition of snow depth data assimilation.  相似文献   

15.
This paper presents a high-resolution operational forecast system for providing support to oil spill response in Belfast Lough. The system comprises an operational oceanographic module coupled to an oil spill forecast module that is integrated in a user-friendly web application. The oceanographic module is based on Delft3D model which uses daily boundary conditions and meteorological forcing obtained from COPERNICUS and from the UK Meteorological Office. Downscaled currents and meteorological forecasts are used to provide short-term oil spill fate and trajectory predictions at local scales. Both components of the system are calibrated and validated with observational data, including ADCP data, sea level, temperature and salinity measurements and drifting buoys released in the study area. The transport model is calibrated using a novel methodology to obtain the model coefficients that optimize the numerical simulations. The results obtained show the good performance of the system and its capability for oil spill forecast.  相似文献   

16.
Operations at Central-Spanish airports are often, especially in winter, affected by visibility reduction. The Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (INM), the Spanish Weather Service, has developed a single-column model (SCM) in order to improve short-term forecasts of fog, visibility and low-clouds. The SCM, called H1D, is a one-dimensional version of the HIRLAM limited-area model. It is operationally run for three airports in the region: Madrid-Barajas, Almagro and Albacete-Los Llanos. Since SCMs cannot deal with horizontal heterogeneity, the terms that depend on the horizontal structure of the atmosphere are estimated from the outputs of the three-dimensional (3-D) model and introduced into the SCM as external forcings. The systematic analysis of the meteorological situations has evidenced the existence of a close relationship between fog formation and the presence of drainage winds in the region. Since the 3-D model docs not have the necessary resolution to correctly simulate the main features of the drainage flow caused by the complex topography in the proximity of Madrid-Barajas, it cannot provide the SCM with the correct forcings. This problem has been partially overcome through the introduction of a module that, under certain conditions, substitutes the values computed from the 3-D model outputs by others that are based on a conceptual model of the phenomenon and have been empirically derived from climatological knowledge. This module improves the H1D verification scores for the basic meteorological variables—wind, temperature and humidity—and reduces the false alarm rate in fog forecast.  相似文献   

17.
Sublimation from thin snow cover at the edge of the Eurasian cryosphere in Mongolia was calculated using the aerodynamic profile method and verified by eddy covariance observations using multiple‐level meteorological data from three sites representing a variety of geographic and vegetative conditions in Mongolia. Data were collected in the winter and analysed from three sites. Intense sublimation events, defined by daily sublimation levels of more than 0·4 mm, were predominant in their effect on the temporal variability of sublimation. The dominant meteorological elements affecting sublimation were wind speed and air temperature, with the latter affecting sublimation indirectly through the vapour deficit. Seasonal and interannual variations in sublimation were investigated using long‐interval estimations for 19 years at a mountainous‐area meteorological station and for 24 years at a flat‐plain meteorological station. The general seasonal pattern indicated higher rates of sublimation in both the beginning and ending of the snow‐covered period, when the wind speed and vapour deficit were higher. Annual sublimation averaged 11·7 mm at the flat‐plain meteorological station, or 20·3% of the annual snowfall, and 15·7 mm at the site in the mountains, or 21·6% of snowfall. The sum of snow sublimation and snowmelt evaporation represented 17 to 20% of annual evapotranspiration in a couple observation years. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Mountain water resources management often requires hydrological models that need to handle both snow and ice melt. In this study, we compared two different model types for a partly glacierized watershed in central Switzerland: (1) an energy‐balance model primarily designed for snow simulations; and (2) a temperature‐index model developed for glacier simulations. The models were forced with data extrapolated from long‐term measurement records to mimic the typical input data situation for climate change assessments. By using different methods to distribute precipitation, we also assessed how various snow cover patterns influenced the modelled runoff. The energy‐balance model provided accurate discharge estimations during periods dominated by snow melt, but dropped in performance during the glacier ablation season. The glacier melt rates were sensitive to the modelled snow cover patterns and to the parameterization of turbulent heat fluxes. In contrast, the temperature‐index model poorly reproduced snow melt runoff, but provided accurate discharge estimations during the periods dominated by glacier ablation, almost independently of the method used to distribute precipitation. Apparently, the calibration of this model compensated for the inaccurate precipitation input with biased parameters. Our results show that accurate estimates of snow cover patterns are needed either to correctly constrain the melt parameters of the temperature‐index model or to ensure appropriate glacier surface albedos required by the energy‐balance model. Thus, particularly when only distant meteorological stations are available, carefully selected input data and efficient extrapolation methods of meteorological variables improve the reliability of runoff simulations in high alpine watersheds. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Development of hydrological models for seasonal and real-time runoff forecast in rivers of high alpine catchments is useful for management of water resources. The conceptual models for this purpose are based on a temperature index and/or energy budget and can be either lumped or distributed over the catchment area. Remote sensing satellite data are most useful to acquire near real-time geophysical parameters in order to input to the distributed forecasting models. In the present study, integration of optical satellite remote sensing-derived information was made with ground meteorological and hydrological data, and predetermined catchment morphological parameters, to study the feasibility of application of a distributed temperature index snowmelt runoff model to one of the high mountainous catchments in the Italian Alps, known as Cordevole River Basin. Five sets of Landsat Multispectral Scanning System (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) computer-compatible tapes (CCTs) were processed using digital image processing techniques in order to evaluate the snow cover variation quantitatively. Digital elevation model, slope and aspect parameters were developed and used during satellite data processing. The satellite scenes were classified as snow, snow under transition and snow free areas. A second-order polynomial fit has been attempted to approximate the snow depletion and to estimate daily snow cover areal extent for three elevation zones of the catchment separately. Model performance evaluation based on correlation coefficient, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient and percentage volume deviation indicated very good simulation between measured and computed discharges for the entire snowmelt period. The use of average temperature values computed from the maximum and minimum temperatures into the model was studied and a suitable algorithm was proposed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Three cases of widespread sea fog in Lunenburg Bay, Nova Scotia were used to evaluate the suitability of operational regional GEM forecast fields for inferring advection fog occurrences. Verification scores suggest that the objective analyses contain significant departures from observations that will affect model accuracy, given the sensitivity of fog condensation microphysics. Dew point depression (ES) scores show larger differences compared to temperature, with both influenced by surface characteristics. For objective analyses and GEM forecasts ES < 2 C seems to match fog satellite images better than the physical threshold ES ≤ 0 C. In addition the GEM forecasts show a general tendency towards drier conditions near the surface, therefore reconfiguring GEM to better represent condensation in the boundary layer is proposed.  相似文献   

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