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1.
John W. Day Robert R. Christian Donald M. Boesch Alejandro Yáñez-Arancibia James Morris Robert R. Twilley Larissa Naylor Linda Schaffner Court Stevenson 《Estuaries and Coasts》2008,31(3):477-491
Climate impacts on coastal and estuarine systems take many forms and are dependent on the local conditions, including those
set by humans. We use a biocomplexity framework to provide a perspective of the consequences of climate change for coastal
wetland ecogeomorphology. We concentrate on three dimensions of climate change affects on ecogeomorphology: sea level rise,
changes in storm frequency and intensity, and changes in freshwater, sediment, and nutrient inputs. While sea level rise,
storms, sedimentation, and changing freshwater input can directly impact coastal and estuarine wetlands, biological processes
can modify these physical impacts. Geomorphological changes to coastal and estuarine ecosystems can induce complex outcomes
for the biota that are not themselves intuitively obvious because they are mediated by networks of biological interactions.
Human impacts on wetlands occur at all scales. At the global scale, humans are altering climate at rapid rates compared to
the historical and recent geological record. Climate change can disrupt ecological systems if it occurs at characteristic
time scales shorter than ecological system response and causes alterations in ecological function that foster changes in structure
or alter functional interactions. Many coastal wetlands can adjust to predicted climate change, but human impacts, in combination
with climate change, will significantly affect coastal wetland ecosystems. Management for climate change must strike a balance
between that which allows pulsing of materials and energy to the ecosystems and promotes ecosystem goods and services, while
protecting human structures and activities. Science-based management depends on a multi-scale understanding of these biocomplex
wetland systems. Causation is often associated with multiple factors, considerable variability, feedbacks, and interferences.
The impacts of climate change can be detected through monitoring and assessment of historical or geological records. Attribution
can be inferred through these in conjunction with experimentation and modeling. A significant challenge to allow wise management
of coastal wetlands is to develop observing systems that act at appropriate scales to detect global climate change and its
effects in the context of the various local and smaller scale effects. 相似文献
2.
Birte Frommer 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(1):85-101
For the last five years, climate change has been increasingly perceived as a challenge for regional development. Compared
to other nations, Germany is relatively ‘safe’, but the German regions are prone to different impacts of climate change; some
of them might be positive but most will be negative in the long run. Strategic concepts are therefore needed to reduce the
negative impacts and use the potential positive effects. Due to enforced research funding, several German regions are currently
developing adaptation strategies within transdisciplinary research projects. Based on a comparative case study analysis of
three of these projects, this paper looks for the benefits of resilience thinking in the context of climate change adaptation.
The analysis shows that the case study regions try to increase their resilience to climate change by strengthening the properties
of (1) resistance, (2) recovery and (3) creativity. But the discussion also reveals that only parts, certain sectors or subjects,
of the region can increase their distinct resilience. Regional stakeholder networks as established within the case study regions
can make a significant contribution to linking different sectors and levels of action. Therefore, this approach seems to be
applicable for integrating the need for adaptation within the whole region. It is believed that the regionalized communication
of potential climate change impacts raises awareness for climate change adaptation, helps to develop appropriate adaptation
measures and encourages action. Hence, different approaches can indeed lead to more resilient structures. But the resilient
society at regional level remains utopia. 相似文献
3.
Birte Frommer 《Natural Hazards》2013,67(1):99-115
For the last five years, climate change has been increasingly perceived as a challenge for regional development. Compared to other nations, Germany is relatively ‘safe’, but the German regions are prone to different impacts of climate change; some of them might be positive but most will be negative in the long run. Strategic concepts are therefore needed to reduce the negative impacts and use the potential positive effects. Due to enforced research funding, several German regions are currently developing adaptation strategies within transdisciplinary research projects. Based on a comparative case study analysis of three of these projects, this paper looks for the benefits of resilience thinking in the context of climate change adaptation. The analysis shows that the case study regions try to increase their resilience to climate change by strengthening the properties of (1) resistance, (2) recovery and (3) creativity. But the discussion also reveals that only parts, certain sectors or subjects, of the region can increase their distinct resilience. Regional stakeholder networks as established within the case study regions can make a significant contribution to linking different sectors and levels of action. Therefore, this approach seems to be applicable for integrating the need for adaptation within the whole region. It is believed that the regionalized communication of potential climate change impacts raises awareness for climate change adaptation, helps to develop appropriate adaptation measures and encourages action. Hence, different approaches can indeed lead to more resilient structures. But the resilient society at regional level remains utopia. 相似文献
4.
This paper explores the advantages of applying the concept of social-ecological resilience (SER) and the related thinking in transdisciplinary research. The theoretical reflections are exemplified by transdisciplinary research experiences using the concept of SER as a bridging concept in the field of climate-change adaptation instead of developing a new and very context-specific conceptual bridge. The findings are based on ontological reflections concerning the complex and hybrid phenomenon of climate change and the need for transdisciplinary research as well as on reflections on the performed interdisciplinary research and the exploratory transdisciplinary research approach with practitioners from the German administration. The experiences so far have shown that it was more focused on the general ideas of social-ecological resilience thinking instead of using the concept of SER as an analytical tool. We conclude that the use of a common conceptual framework in general and of social-ecological resilience thinking in particular offers tangible advantages in transdisciplinary research dealing with climate change and adaptation to the impacts of climate change. In our case, social-ecological resilience thinking helped—after translation into practical terms—to open the field for further consideration from the very beginning as well as to open the space for common creative work; to define the problem; and to choose the relevant variables to look at. 相似文献
5.
Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) is an ecologically and economically valuable component of coastal estuaries that acts as an early indicator of both degrading and improving water quality. This study aimed to determine if shoreline hardening, which is associated with increased population pressure and climate change, acts to degrade SAV habitat quality at the local scale. In situ comparisons of SAV beds adjacent to both natural and hardened shorelines in 24 subestuaries throughout the Chesapeake and Mid-Atlantic Coastal Bays indicated that shoreline hardening does impact adjacent SAV beds. Species diversity, evenness, and percent cover were significantly reduced in the presence of riprap revetment. A post hoc analysis also confirmed that SAV is locally affected by watershed land use associated with increased population pressure, though to a lesser degree than impacts observed from shoreline armoring. When observed over time, SAV recovery at the local level took approximately 3 to 4 years following storm impacts, and SAV adjacent to natural shorelines showed more resilience to storms than SAV adjacent to armored shorelines. The negative impacts of shoreline hardening and watershed development on SAV shown here will inform coastal zone management decisions as increasing coastal populations and sea level rise drive these practices. 相似文献
6.
气候变化适应对策的评价方法和工具 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4
气候变化影响和适应对策方法评估的研究目的主要是建立和应用先进有效的分析工具和评价方法对气候变化脆弱性和适应对策进行科学评估. 因此需要了解当前已经在自然资源和环境研究中广泛使用的决策分析工具,掌握和了解各种适应对策评估工具的关键特性及其优缺点. 首先介绍各种有关适应对策的定义及两大类适应评估方法途径, 同时举例介绍不同方法在气候变化影响和适应评估研究中的应用. 常规的适应对策评估分析主要以政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)气候变化影响和适应对策评估技术指南中的方法工具为代表, 另一种适应对策研究则致力于改善各种对气候变化敏感系统的适应能力和复原能力. 文中对各种适应对策评估方法和工具进行了介绍和讨论,并提出气候变化适应研究的新方向. 相似文献
7.
全球环境变化海岸易损性研究综述 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
全球变化海岸易损性评估是国际政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）敦促沿海各国应优先开展的一项工作。根据近年来有关海岸易损性的研究成果,可以认为海岸易损性系指海岸带自然、社会经济综合体对全球环境变化和海平面上升的不适应程度。通过阐述IPCC易损性评估的基本方法、内容和目标,指出了海岸易损性评估中存在的问题及改善的方法,最后,结合我国海岸带易损性评估的已有成果,分析了我国海岸易损性评估工作中存在的问题及今后的研究方向。 相似文献
8.
Sarker Md. Nazirul Islam Peng Yang Khatun Most. Nilufa Alam G. M. Monirul Shouse Roger C. Amin Md. Ruhul 《Natural Hazards》2022,110(2):1115-1132
Bangladesh is one of the topmost climate vulnerable countries in the world where the riverine island (char) dwellers are the most victims of climate change. Climate finance is perceived as the key instruments to address the issues related to climate change impacts and improve the livelihood resilience of the rural people. This article examines the role of climate finance governance at the vulnerable hazard-prone chars in Bangladesh. Climate finance adaptation governance has been assessed through measuring the climate service intervention, behavioral changes and impacts at the local level. The study reveals that the mechanism of climate finance in Bangladesh is good enough, but implementation is not satisfactory. It also observed that there is a lack of participatory governance for disaster management, and there is no direct contribution of climate finance governance in the village level which causes to fail the existing implementation strategy. The study suggests that a riverine island-based long-term development program should be implemented through ensuring effective monitoring system so that climate finance governance can contribute a lot and improve the food security and livelihood resilience of char dwellers.
相似文献9.
Climate change has profoundly impacted the development of human civilization. It is one of the basic forces that have led to the rise and fall of regional civilization. The manifestations and ultimate consequences of the impacts of climate change on social development are the products of the interaction between climate change and human society, which are both related to the characteristics of climate change and to the adaptation of human society. Based on the published papers on climate change and civilization during the past 20 years, five patterns of the impacts of climate change on civilization were summarized. They are periodic changes, pulse, adaptive transition, collapse, migration and replacement. Periodic changes and pulse occurred when climate change impacts were within the resilience of human social systems. Thus, there was no need for major structural changes in the human society. Adaptive transition was a fruit of successful response of the human system when the extent of abrupt climatic change or the trend of climate change exceeded the available range of human social systems In contrast, collapse was a result of failed response of the human system. Migration and replacement, in which people moved from their original living place to other regions and sometimes even replaced the aboriginal civilizations with the colonized civilization, could occur no matter the impacts of climate change had exceeded the resilience of human system. The summarization is expected to be useful for the understanding of the mechanism on the relationship between climate change and civilization, and for coping with the challenges of future global climate change. 相似文献
10.
A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical concepts of flood vulnerability and the day-to-day decision-making process and to encapsulate this link in an easily accessible tool. This article focuses on developing a Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index (CCFVI) based on exposure, susceptibility and resilience to coastal flooding. It is applied to nine cities around the world, each with different kinds of exposure. With the aid of this index, it is demonstrated which cities are most vulnerable to coastal flooding with regard to the system??s components, that is, hydro-geological, socio-economic and politico-administrative. The index gives a number from 0 to 1, indicating comparatively low or high coastal flood vulnerability, which shows which cities are most in need of further, more detailed investigation for decision-makers. Once its use to compare the vulnerability of a range of cities under current conditions has been demonstrated, it is used to study the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of these cities over a longer timescale. The results show that CCFVI provides a means of obtaining a broad overview of flood vulnerability and the effect of possible adaptation options. This, in turn, will allow for the direction of resources to more in-depth investigation of the most promising strategies. 相似文献
11.
Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Donald Scavia John C. Field Donald F. Boesch Robert W. Buddemeier Virginia Burkett Daniel R. Cayan Michael Fogarty Mark A. Harwell Robert W. Howarth Curt Mason Denise J. Reed Thomas C. Royer Asbury H. Sallenger James G. Titus 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(2):149-164
Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences. 相似文献
12.
Coastal megacities and climate change 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
Robert J. Nicholls 《GeoJournal》1995,37(3):369-379
Rapid urbanization is projected to produce 20 coastal megacities (population exceeding 8 million) by 2010. This is mainly a developing world phenomenon: in 1990, there were seven coastal megacities in Asia (excluding those in Japan) and two in South America, rising by 2010 to 12 in Asia (including Istanbul), three in South America and one in Africa.All coastal locations, including megacities, are at risk to the impacts of accelerated global sea-level rise and other coastal implications of climate change, such as changing storm frequency. Further, many of the coastal megacities are built on geologically young sedimentary strata that are prone to subsidence given excessive groundwater withdrawal. At least eight of the projected 20 coastal megacities have experienced a local orrelative rise in sea level which often greatly exceeds any likely global sea-level rise scenario for the next century.The implications of climate change for each coastal megacity vary significantly, so each city requires independent assessment. In contrast to historical precedent, a proactive perspective towards coastal hazards and changing levels of risk with time is recommended. Low-cost measures to maintain or increase future flexibility of response to climate change need to be identified and implemented as part of an integrated approach to coastal management. 相似文献
13.
Roseanna J. Mayfield Peter G. Langdon C. Patrick Doncaster John A. Dearing Rong Wang Gaute Velle Kimberley L. Davies Stephen J. Brooks 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(3):360-376
Much is known about how climate change impacts ecosystem richness and turnover, but we have less understanding of its influence on ecosystem structures. Here, we use ecological metrics (beta diversity, compositional disorder and network skewness) to quantify the community structural responses of temperature-sensitive chironomids (Diptera: Chironomidae) during the Late Glacial (14 700–11 700 cal a bp ) and Holocene (11 700 cal a bp to present). Analyses demonstrate high turnover (beta diversity) of chironomid composition across both epochs; however, structural metrics stayed relatively intact. Compositional disorder and skewness show greatest structural change in the Younger Dryas, following the rapid, high-magnitude climate change at the Bølling–Allerød to Younger Dryas transition. There were fewer climate-related structural changes across the early to mid–late Holocene, where climate change was more gradual and lower in magnitude. The reduced impact on structural metrics could be due to greater functional resilience provided by the wider chironomid community, or to the replacement of same functional-type taxa in the network structure. These results provide insight into how future rapid climate change may alter chironomid communities and could suggest that while turnover may remain high under a rapidly warming climate, community structural dynamics retain some resilience. 相似文献
14.
海平面上升导致的地下水入侵沿海地区的建筑地基造成显著风险。提出了一个考虑地下水侵入导致土壤强度退化的沿海建筑地基韧性模型。该模型由地基的性能函数在服役期内的积分得到。考虑条形基础的韧性,其极限承载力由Terzaghi公式描述。韧性模型考虑气候变化背景下地下水位的上升对土壤强度的影响。通过一个算例,展示了所提出的韧性模型的适用性。结果表明,如果不考虑气候变化影响下地下水位的上升,则会得到不保守的结构韧性评估结果。结构全寿命周期内的韧性也取决于所采用的维护措施（即,修复受损的结构性能）。未来的研究中,还应考虑其他因素（如锈蚀）对沿海建筑地基性能退化的联合影响。 相似文献
15.
Villagra Paula Herrmann Marie Geraldine Quintana Carolina Sepúlveda Roger D. 《Natural Hazards》2017,88(2):1087-1111
Tsunamic events are a frequent hazard to coastal towns. Despite this, the extent to which resilience models can be applied to coastal towns as well as the aspects that should be considered when doing so have not been fully evaluated. There is little information regarding the specific indicators that allow cities to better cope and adapt to the impacts of tsunamis, and this information is especially scarce for developing countries such as Chile. The main objective of this study is to develop a resilience model to explore the extent to which local characteristics influence the resilience of Chilean coastal communities to tsunami hazards. Accordingly, this study presents the Coastal Community Resilience model (The CORE model) for exploring the adaptive capacity of coastal areas affected by tsunamis. This model was then applied to fourteen coastal villages, distributed within four towns, three communes, and two regions of Chile. Data comprising 21 indicators that address the physical, environmental, and social resilience aspects of the villages were obtained on-site and from governmental and municipality databases; these data were then subjected to multivariate analysis in order to determine which indicators most and least affect resilience and whether indicators affect resilience positively or negatively. Variation in resilience among the villages was explained by similarities and differences in the administrative-political, urban, rural, and indigenous characteristics of the study areas. In addition to these results, we discuss land use planning considerations to build community resilience, and we provide insight into the utility of the resilience model proposed here. Overall, our findings shed light on gaps in planning policies and opportunities for planning coastal resilient communities, particularly for those where data of explicit indicators are scarce like in Chile and other developing countries.
相似文献16.
Overwash is one of the most prominent hazards affecting coastal zones, and the associated consequences are expected to increase because of both sea-level rise and intensification of coastal occupation. This study used a 23-year data set of wave heights and tide-surge levels to define return periods of overwash potential for current and future sea-level conditions, namely 2055 and 2100, at two sites from South Portugal. A relevant intensification of both frequency and magnitude of the overwash is expected to occur by mid-century if adaptation measures are not taken and further aggravated by 2100. Current overwash levels with a return period of 100-years can reach a return period lower than 20-years by 2055 and 10-years by 2100. However, these values are rather variable from site to site, highlighting the urgency to develop detailed local studies to identify climate change impacts along coastal sectors, based on validated equations and long-term time series. These could be easily carried by replicating and adapting the here proposed methodology to sandy coasts worldwide. Understating the impact that climate change (namely sea-level rise) may have at the local level is key to contribute to effective management plans that include adaptation measures to minimize risks associated with coastal floods.
相似文献17.
Rethinking geopolitics in an era of climate change 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This article examines the disconnect between predictions about climate change and dominant geopolitical framings of the future. To begin, we introduce four popular geopolitical models of the world. We then show how climate change is a critical variable when considering the future of international politics. Focusing on the specific issues of water availability, agricultural productivity, coastal impacts, and shipping routes, we discuss the implications of predicted changes in the wake of climate change for the assumptions on which these scenarios are built. We show that work linking climate change and geopolitics has clear implications for the ways in which the future geopolitical (dis)order is conceptualized, and we argue that the failure to incorporate this work into geopolitical scenario-planning represents a significant limitation to their utility. We offer some direction for a re-conceptualization of the future based on a more dynamic and flexible approach to geopolitics that recognizes the disruptions posed by climatic and other environmental changes. 相似文献
18.
Coastal northern Australia is largely owned and occupied by Aboriginal people who are strongly connected to their traditional country. We assess the views of Aboriginal people in Arnhem Land on the impacts of climate change and their possible precautionary responses to both sea level rise and a potential increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones in coastal communities. All respondents had heard about climate change, and 48 % had already seen environmental changes, particularly sea level rise, which they attributed to climate change. Fifty-eight percent of respondents would consider relocating in the future for safety reasons, although most respondents perceived living close to the sea as highly important for their future well-being, emphasising their strong connection to their traditional sea country. Many of those willing to relocate would consider moving inland, either temporarily or permanently, provided that community facilities could also be moved. Other respondents who said they would be unlikely to relocate in the future because of climate change impacts, and would prefer to adapt in situ with government support (e.g. building more shelters for severe cyclones, building sea walls and better roads for quick evacuation if necessary). We recommend that the diversity of adaptation preferences among Aboriginal people should be accommodated in policy to minimise social impacts of climate change and to take advantage of potential opportunities that could arise from moving. 相似文献
19.
《Geoforum》2017
This research is located at the intersection of three canals in periurban Gurugram. Two of these canals were built to provide water for the growing city of Gurugram and one of them carries the wastewater of the city back to the villages. These canals cut through periurban villages that are excluded in principle from taking benefit of these canals. They are meant to be at their receiving end, as recipients of these waters. The paper, using a socio-technical lens, explores the mixed impacts of these canals on the villages through which they traverse. The paper further describes the strategies that periurban communities devise to circumvent the situation of exclusion. Using a qualitative, ethnographic research design, the paper describes the socio-technical mediation of periurban water insecurity, focusing on the mix of technologies and institutions that spring up around these canals that shape the periurban water users’ access to water. The paper concludes that approaches for promoting community resilience and periurban water security need to start from an understanding of the strategies devised by periurban communities to improve their access to water. In the larger discourse on building community resilience in the face of urbanization and climate change it is important to pay attention to local norms of cooperation that enable periurban communities to access water, rather than start from a premise that water insecurity caused by urbanization and climate change will lead to conflicts or necessitate capacity-building to promote avoid conflict and promote cooperation. 相似文献
20.
Angeliki Mentzafou Chrysa Vamvakaki Ierotheos Zacharias Areti Gianni Elias Dimitriou 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(6):259
The Spercheios river basin—coastal marine area is a complex natural and interdependent ecosystem, highly affected by human activities and interventions. Such sensitive systems are even more vulnerable to alterations of the hydrological cycle components and it is likely to be rapidly and severely affected by climate change. In order to examine the climate change impacts on water resources of the study area, the interaction between the hydrology of the river basin and the hydrodynamic of the coastal marine area was examined using two models. Based on the results, although the irrigation needs decrease for the years 2050 and 2100 due to corresponding decrease in cultivated areas, temperature increase and precipitation decrease are both expected to influence the water resources of the Spercheios river basin, which will directly affect the Maliakos Gulf hydrodynamics. The necessity to adopt a holistic approach which will treat river basins and coastal marine areas as an integrated whole, with regard to environmental, socio-economic and political framework, is evident. 相似文献