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1.
An empirical-statistical climate-glacier model is used to reconstruct Late Pleistocene climate conditions in the south-central Andes of northern Chile (29–30° S). The model was tested using modern climate data and the results compare favorably with key glaciological features presentlyobserved in this area. Using several glaciers at 29° S as casestudies, the results suggest an increase in annual precipitation( P = 580 ± 150 mm, today 400 mm), and a reduction inannual mean temperature ( T = –5.7 ± 0.7 ° C).These data suggest full glacial LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) conditionsfor the maximum glacier advances at 29° S, a scenario that is asynchronous with the timing of maximum advances north of the Arid Diagonal (18–24° S) where late-glacial climate was moderately cold but very humid.The reconstructed case study glaciers at 29° S do not allow conclusions to be drawn about the seasonality of precipitation. However, comparison with regional paleodata suggests intensified westerly winter precipitation and a stable position for the northern boundary of the westerlies at 27° S. However, the meridional precipitation gradients were much steeper than today while the core area of the Arid Diagonal remained fixed between 25–27° S.  相似文献   

2.
Summary The seasonal and diurnal variations in the vertical component of the atmospheric electric field, air temperature, relative humidity and horizontal wind speed were studied using the surface data for the two periods (1936–40) and (1962–66) recorded at the tropical urban station, Colaba, Bombay (18°51N, 72°49E, 11 m ASL), located on the west coast of India.The atmospheric electric field during the latter period (1962–66) is significantly higher (up to 42.3%) than the earlier period (1936–40). This has been attributed to the enhanced particulate concentrations in the atmosphere. The increase noticed in the atmospheric electric field is a maximum during winter and minimum during the monsoon. The atmospheric electric field exhibited a marked semi-diurnal oscillation with peaks at 0900 LST and 2200 LST during winter, premonsoon and post-monsoon seasons of both the periods. During the monsoon season the double oscillation is not marked.The variations noticed in the surface air temperature and the relative humidity are in agreement with those observed in the atmospheric electric field. The horizontal wind speed showed a decrease which has been attributed to the surface roughness resulting from urbanization.With 7 Figures  相似文献   

3.
A numerical investigation of wind speed effects on lake-effect storms   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Observations of lake-effect storms that occur over the Great Lakes region during late autumn and winter indicate a high sensitivity to ambient wind speed and direction. In this paper, a two-dimensional version of the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) model is used to investigate the wind speed effects on lake-effect snowstorms that occur over the Great Lakes region.Theoretical initial conditions for stability, relative humidity, wind velocity, and lake/land temperature distribution are specified. Nine different experiments are performed using wind speeds ofU=0, 2, 4,..., 16 m s–1. The perturbation wind, temperature, and moisture fields for each experiment after 36 h of simulation are compared.It is determined that moderate (4–6 m s–1) wind speeds result in maximum precipitation (snowfall) on the lee shore of the model lake. Weak wind speeds (0U<4 m s–1) yield significantly higher snowfall amounts over the lake along with a spatially concentrated and intense response. Strong wind speeds (6<U16 m s–1), yield very little, if any, significant snowfall, although significant increases in cloudiness, temperature, and perturbation wind speed occur hundreds of kilometers downwind from the lake.  相似文献   

4.
Measurements of the concentrations of carbonyl sulfide (COS) in the marine atmosphere were made over a period of two years in the southern Indian Ocean (Amsterdam Island, 37°50 S–77°31 E; March 1987–February 1988 and April 1989–February 1990). The mean atmospheric COS concentration for the whole period was 475±48 pptv (n=544). Atmospheric COS concentrations show no significant seasonal variation with a summer to winter ratio of 1.05. Taking into account the observed variability of the atmospheric COS concentration (10%), a value of 1.4 yr is estimated as a lower limit for the atmospheric COS lifetime. A comparison of the COS data at Amsterdam Island with those obtained in the Southern Hemisphere in the past 12 yr does not reveal any significant trend in the tropospheric background COS mixing ratio.  相似文献   

5.
Summary Composite time series combining the results of total ozone measurements taken at Dobson stations located within the latitude band 30°N–60°N, in Europe, and North America, have been examined in order to detect any trends. Various regression trend models were used to identify any trend variations over the regions during the period 1970–1990. The results of fitting the models to the data imply that the model which assumes a linear trend provides precise information about the long-term ozone trends (trends during the period 1970–1990). The study identifies short-term summer trends in the 1980s that are evidently more strongly negative than trends that occur in the 1970s (the differences are statistically significant at the 2 level). The year-round loss (in all analyzed regions) and the winter loss in total ozone (the belt 30°N–60°N) N. America, during the 1980s are about 2–3 times higher than the losses during the 1970s (the differences are statistically significant at the 1 level).With 1 Figure  相似文献   

6.
Wheat stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis West.) epidemics are confined predominantly to the Pacific Northwest in the U. S. A. because of climate. This disease was frequently reported until the late 1930's and then virtually absent until the late 1950's. Since the severe epidemic in 1961, stripe rust has been frequently severe on winter wheat and has caused losses in susceptible cultivars in many years. Because of the unusual history of stripe rust in this region, the possibility that climate variability affected the pattern of rust occurrence was investigated. Meteorological data for seven locations in Oregon, Washington, and Idaho were analyzed. In 1961–1974 for the Columbia Basin locations, January and February temperatures averaged 1.20° C higher than during the period 1935–1960; however, April temperatures averaged 1.28° C lower in 1961–1974 than during the earlier period. Monthly precipitation averages have not varied more than 12.7 mm in any month. Between 1961–1974, December snowfall almost doubled over that in 1935–1960; snowfall in February decreased over 50% from the earlier period. Data was computed on a seasonal basis since 1901 and considered in respect to stripe rust epidemics. Since 1961, above-normal winter and below-normal spring temperatures have increased the frequency and severity of stripe rust epidemics in the Pacific Northwest. The direction of temperature and precipitation trends varied with the time period considered. How the climate variability which has occurred may have affected winter wheat growth and yields is postulated. Studies such as this should be useful to researchers modelling crop-yields, agronomists evaluating results from field experiments and to researchers studying fluctuations in pest populations.This research was supported by a National Science Foundation Grant (ATM 76-21725); Climate Dynamics Program, Division of Atmospheric Sciences.  相似文献   

7.
Variations in ice winter severity in the Western Baltic between 1501 and 1995 were investigated using an index time series derived from classified values of accumulated areal ice volume along the German Baltic coast, the time series back to 1701, having been extended to the beginning of the 16th century. When compared with the 1501–1995 mean, the Gaussian lowpass-filtered time series of the ice winter index numerals with a 40-year cutoff period shows increased severity (strong phases) in 1554–1576, 1593–1630, 1655–1710, and 1763–1860, while periods of decreased severity occurred in 1501–1553, 1577–1592, 1631–1654, 1711–1762, and from 1861 to the present. During the latter part of the Little Ice Age, especially during the 1655–1710 and 1763–1860 phases, the lowpass-filtered time series lay more than half a standard deviation above the arithmetic mean of the reference period 1901–1960, representing the present regime, for more than three decades. Between 1501 and 1860, the ice winter severity in the Western Baltic fluctuated around a level 55% higher than that during the present period. Using the contingency table published by Koslowski and Loewe, the frequency of events of weak westerly flow above the northeastern North Atlantic during the Little Ice Age was estimated. The calculated values of weak westerly flow expected per decade suggest that strong phases of increased ice winter severity were characterized by frequent blocking situations (weak westerly flow), and that, contrarily, the weak phases of reduced ice winter severity between about 1575 and 1860 may be regarded as phases of increased zonal circulation.  相似文献   

8.
Summary A time series and extreme value analysis of maximum precipitation for distinct time intervals from 10 minutes to 1 day have been deduced for the observatory Zagreb-Gri ( = 45°49 and = 15°59,H s = 157 m) for the period between 1908 and 1985. The Spearman rank correlation test revealed that the short-term precipitation maxima series for the time intervals of 10 to 30 minutes and 8 to 24 hours indicate no significant trend for the 95 percent probability level. The 40-minute to 4-hour precipitation maxima exhibited an increaese in recent time. Annual maximumt-minute precipitation was estimated using the Gumbel distribution for sets of data gradually prolonged with 10-year steps towards the past. The ratios (q) of maximum precipitation estimates for the shorter periods and of estimates for the reference period (1908–1985) have been calculated. Their positions according to the confidence interval on the reference estimates were determined. Confident extreme value estimates could be obtained using at least the 50–60 year data series.With 3 Figures  相似文献   

9.
Daily and zonal (latitudinal belt) averages of heat and momentum fluxes were computed using bulk aerodynamic formulae, from the meteorological parameters measured onboard M. S. Thuleland during the sixth Indian scientific expedition to Antarctica (26th November, 1986 to 22nd March, 1987). Both estimates showed significant variations, the momentum flux showing the largest variation. The maximum values of sensible and latent heat fluxes were observed over the 30°–40° S and 10°–20° S zones during the southern summer and fall respectively while the minimum values of latent heat flux were observed in the 60°–70° S zone for both seasons. The sensible heat flux minimum was observed in the 50°°60° S and 60°–70° S zones for summer and fall, respectively. Higher momentum flux values over the 40°–50° S zone in summer shifted to the 50°–60° S zone during fall.  相似文献   

10.
Ralf Greve 《Climatic change》2000,46(3):289-303
Numerical computations are performed with the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS in order to investigate the possible impact of a greenhouse-gas-induced climate change on the Greenland ice sheet. The assumed increase of the mean annual air temperature above the ice covers a range from T = 1°C to 12°C, and several parameterizations for the snowfall and the surface melting are considered. The simulated shrinking of the ice sheet is a smooth function of the temperature rise, indications for the existence of critical thresholds of the climate input are not found. Within 1000 model years, the ice-volume decrease is limited to 10% of the present volume for T 3°C, whereas the most extreme scenario, T = 12°C, leads to an almost entire disintegration, which corresponds to a sea-level equivalent of 7 m. The different snowfall and melting parameterizations yield an uncertainty range of up to 20% of the present ice volume after 1000 model years.  相似文献   

11.
In this paper, a model simulating the effects of topography and altitude on precipitation is presented. Topography has its maximum effect on precipitation when the angle which the wind makes with the slope direction approaches zero and the inclination of the slope is near 45°. The smaller the angle , the greater the influence of slope on precipitation. When <45°, the larger the inclination, the greater the influence of slope on precipitation and the less the difference in precipitation between the windward and the leeward slopes. When <45°, the reverse holds. But for in the range of 0°–45° and in the range 30°–60°, differences in precipitation on both the windward and leeward slopes are not so well marked and can be neglected in general. In condition of uniform slope inclination, precipitation on the windward slope increases with altitude at first and then decreases after attaining a height (H m ) of maximum precipitation; alsoH m is greater, the drier the air mass. When the terrain on the windward side is stepped in shape, it is possible that more than one height of maximum precipitation will occur.  相似文献   

12.
Daily measurements of atmospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations were performed from March 1989 to January 1991 at Amsterdam Island (37°50 S–77°30 E), a remote site located in the southern Indian Ocean. Long-range transport of continental air masses was studied using Radon (222Rn) as continental tracer. Average monthly SO2 concentrations range from less than 0.2 to 3.9 nmol m-3 (annual average = 0.7 nmol m-3) and present a seasonal cycle with a minimum in winter and a maximum in summer, similar to that described for atmospheric DMS concentrations measured during the same period. Clear diel correlation between atmospheric DMS and SO2 concentrations is also observed during summer. A photochemical box model using measured atmospheric DMS concentrations as input data reproduces the seasonal variations in the measured atmospheric SO2 concentrations within ±30%. Comparing between computed and measured SO2 concentrations allowed us to estimate a yield of SO2 from DMS oxidation of about 70%.  相似文献   

13.
Weekly bulk aerosol samples collected at Funafuti, Tuvalu (8°30S, 179°12E), American Samoa (14°15S, 170°35W), and Rarotonga (21°15S, 159°45W), from 1983 through most of 1987 have been analyzed for nitrate and other constituents. The mean nitrate concentration is about 0.11 g m–3 at each of these stations: 0.107±0.011 g m–3 at Funafuti; 0.116±0.008 at American Samoa; and 0.117±0.010 at Rarotonga. Previous measurements of mineral aerosol and trace metal concentrations at American Samoa are among the lowest ever recorded for the near-surface troposphere and indicate that this region is minimally affected by transport of soil material and pollutants from the continents. Consequently, the nitrate concentration of 0.11 g m–3 can be regarded as the natural level for the remote marine boundary layer of the tropical South Pacific Ocean. In contrast, over the tropical North Pacific which is significantly impacted by the transport of material from Asia and North America, the mean nitrate concentrations are about three times higher, 0.29 and 0.36 g m–3 at Midway and Oahu, respectively. The major sources of the nitrate over the tropical South Pacific are still very uncertain. A very significant correlation between the nitrate concentrations at American Samoa and the concentrations of 210Pb suggests that transport from continental sources might be important. This continental source could be lightning, which occurs most frequently over the tropical continents. A near-zero correlation with 7Be indicates that the stratosphere and upper troposphere are probably not the major sources. A significant biogenic source would be consistent with the higher mean nitrate concentrations, 0.16 to 0.17 g m–3, found over the equatorial Pacific at Fanning Island (3°55N, 159°20W) and Nauru (0°32S, 166°57E). The lack of correlation between nitrate and nss sulfate at American Samoa does not necessarily preclude an important role for marine biogenic sources.  相似文献   

14.
Zusammenfassung Mit Hilfe alpiner, norwegischer und arktischer Beobachtungen werden Beziehungen zwischen dem Prozentanteil (F) des festen Niederschlags am Gesamtniederschlag und der Monats- bzw. Jahresmitteltemperatur (t) abgeleitet. Abweichungen von einer LeitlinieF(%)=50–5t werden erörtert. Sie sind in der Niederung in allen untersuchten Klimaten relativ klein, wennt die Monatsmitteltemperatur oder eine positive Jahresmitteltemperatur bezeichnet. Ist jedoch das Jahresmittel einer niedrig gelegenen Station negativ, so bleibt der Anteil festen Niederschlags am Gesamtniederschlag des Jahres bedeutend geringer als nach der Formel zu erwarten wäre. Zum Beispiel ist in der Packeiszone der Niederschlag in der kalten Jahreszeit so gering, daß trotz eines Jahresmittels der Temperatur von –17° nur 61% des Jahresniederschlags in fester Form fallen. Auf Bergen dagegen ist der Anteil festen Niederschlags stets relativ hoch und es ist dort bei Jahrestemperaturen unter –8° nur mehr Schneefall zu erwarten. Die Bedeutung der gefundenen Beziehungen für die Eiszeittheorien und für hydrometeorologische Probleme wird hervorgehoben.
Summary On the basis of Alpine, Norwegian and Arctic observations relations are derived between the amount of solid precipitation in per cents (F) of total precipitation and the monthly and annual mean temperature (t) respectively. Departures from a leading lineF(%)=50–5t are discussed, being relatively small in lowlands of all climates investigated, ift is a monthly mean or a positive annual mean temperature. In cases of a negative annual mean temperature at lowlying stations, however, the ratio between solid and total precipitation was found to be considerably smaller than was to be expected according to the formula. In the zone of pack ice for instance, precipitation during the cold season is so small that, in spite of an annual mean temperature of –17°, but 61 per cents of the annual amount of precipitation fall in solid form. On mountains, on the contrary, the percentage of solid precipitation is always relatively high. With annual temperatures below –8° only snowfall can be expected there. The significance of found relations for glacial period theories and hydro-meteorological problems is pointed out.
Résumé L'auteur déduit une relation empirique entre la fraction de précipitations tombées sous forme solide (F en %) et la température moyenne mensuelle ou annuelle (t) en partant d'observations alpines, norvégiennes et arctiques. Discussion des écarts par rapport à une droite de régressionF=50–5t; ces écarts sont relativement petits à basse altitude lorsquet désigne la température mensuelle ou une température annuelle positive. Si cette dernière est négative, également pour une station de basse altitude, la fractionF rapportée à l'année est nettement plus faible que la formule le laisserait supposer. C'est ainsi que dans la région des glaces flottantes les précipitations hivernales sont si faibles que même avec une température moyenne annuelle de –17° la fraction de précipitations solides n'est que de 61%. En montagne par contre, cette fraction est relativement élevée de sorte que pour une température annuelle inférieure à –8° on n'observe plus que de la neige exclusivement. L'auteur relève l'importance des relations établies pour la théorie des glaciations et pour des problèmes d'hydrométéorologie.

Mit 2 Textabbildungen.  相似文献   

15.
Summary In terms of heavy precipitation, the MAP IOP 5 was a two-phase event. During the first phase – on 3 October 1999 – there was strong precipitation in the Lago Maggiore MAP target area, while the prefrontal precipitation was mainly limited to the mountain ranges of the MAP mission area in the Julian and the Karnic Alps involving a series of thunderstorms developing continuously for about 15 hours and contributing most to precipitation levels. During the second phase – on 4 October – the main precipitation was limited to the Julian and the Karnic Alps where a frontal passage was noted by a squall line moving from Veneto region towards the east, accompanied by a strong SW upper-level jet. At the same time, a strong low-level cold flow invaded the region to the north of Adriatic Sea from the east as a significant amount of cold air moving ageostrophically around the eastern edge of the Alps was arriving in the area. To study MAP IOP 5 in detail, we describe the development for mesoscale features of the events radar images, time-height cross-sections and estimates of Convective Available Poteintial Energy (CAPE) based on radio-sounding data, and how surface-measured precipitation offers some smaller scale information. Surface potential temperature and winds are also studied. Very large precipitation accumulation gradients are diagnosed (150mm per day/25km in S–N direction) and time distributions of hourly precipitation shows completely diverse regimes in the Friuli plain and in the Alps with peak intensities in the Julian Alps. The mesometeorological mechanisms for high precipitation rate in the SE Alps are diagnosed and some characteristics of the squall line are discussed.  相似文献   

16.
The circulation mechanisms of climate anomalies in the southern tropical Andes are of particular interest for the January–February core of the precipitation season. With this focus, we evaluate in context upper-air and surface analyses, water level measurements of Lake Titicaca, and records of net balance and 18O from ice cores. Precipitation is more abundant with enhanced and southward expanded easterlies through a deep layer of the troposphere over the southern tropical Andes. Concomitant with this is a southward displaced circulation system over the equatorial Atlantic, entailing reduced interhemispheric gradient of sea surface temperature (SST; cold/warm anomalies in the North/South), more southerly position of the surface wind confluence and Intertropical Convergence Zone, and thus more abundant rainfall in Northeast Brazil. Such ensemble of circulation departures in boreal winter is common to the high phase of the Southern Oscillation.18O in the ice cores from Peru's Quelccaya Icecap, as wellas the cores from Sajama and Ilimani in Bolivia is more negative with more abundant precipitation, both in the same annual cycle and on interannual timescales. The large-scale circulation departures associated with the more negative 18O are in the sense as for anomalously abundant precipitation activity over the southern tropical Andes. The variability of 18O seasonally and interannually appears to be controlled mainly by the fate of the water vapor along its trajectory and over the Andes, rather than by the SST of the South Atlantic source region.  相似文献   

17.
Summary The spatial and temporal variability of winter precipitation and its links to the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in Romania are examined. The data set is composed of observed rainfall at 30 meteorological stations during the 1961–1996 period. The large-scale field is represented by the observed geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) over the same period, covering the latitudinal belt between 20° N–90° N (resolution 2.5°×2.5°).The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) is applied to detect inhomogeneities in the data, and the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt non-parametric tests are used in order to identify trends and change points in the winter precipitation time series. The empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) technique is used for data reduction in order to highlight the basic patterns of rainfall variability in Romania. The covariance map between precipitation EOF time series (PCs) and the Z500 field, as well as the correlation coefficients between the PCs and circulation indices are calculated in order to identify the influence of large-scale circulation patterns on winter precipitation in Romania.A significant decreasing trend is identified in winter precipitation with a downward shift in winter 1969/1970, most significant from a statistical point of view in the extra-Carpathian region. This change seems to be real since the SNHT test does not reveal any inhomogeneity during the period tested. Significant relationships are found between winter precipitation variability in Romania and the large-scale circulation pattern, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the blocking phenomenon in the Atlantic-European sector. The positive phase of the NAO and the reduction in blocking activity could be one of the causes of the decrease in winter precipitation in Romania.  相似文献   

18.
A previously developed plant species-climatic envelope model was evaluated further and used to predict effects of hypothesized climatic change on the potential distribution of 124 native woody plant species in Florida, U.S.A. Twelve scenarios were investigated. These included mean annual temperature increases of 1 °C or 2 °C, achieved either by equal 1 °C or 2 °C increases on a monthly basis throughout the year, or by disproportionately larger seasonal increases in winter and smaller ones in summer. The various temperature increases were then combined with each of several precipitation changes, ranging from +10% to –20%, to produce the final set of scenarios. More detailed analysis involving six of the scenarios and a subset of 28 representative, ecologically important species suggested that (1) large decreases in the Florida range of many temperate species would result if 1 °C warming occurs predominantly in winter or with a 20% decrease in annual precipitation, or (2) if 2 °C warming occurs, with or without decrease in annual precipitation, and regardless of whether there is a uniform monthly warming pattern or one that is higher in winter than in summer. Available information concerning other factors that might also affect climatic-change responses suggests that these large predicted impacts on temperate Florida species may be underestimates. Subtropical Florida species will tend to move north and inland with warming but extensive human assistance may be needed, if they are to realize their newly expanded, potential natural ranges.  相似文献   

19.
The total ozone content in the atmosphere was determined from the multichannel photometer observations of direct solar radiation made in the urban environment at Pune (18° 32 N, 73° 51E, 559 m ASL) and Sinhagad hill station (18° 22N, 73° 45E, 1305 m ASL) during March 1980-February 1982. The total ozone content of the atmosphere was computed making use of the differential absorption of solar radiation due to ozone at 0.4 and 0.6 m wavelengths in the Chappuis band. The values of the ozone data obtained from the photometer observations at Pune and Sinhagad were compared with the corresponding ozone data obtained from the Dobson spectrophotometer located at Pune. Values of ozone obtained by the photometric method were found to be smaller by 8–18% than the Dobson values when Vigroux's absorption coefficients were used. Similarly, when the absorption coefficients of Inn and Tanaka (1953) were used, the ozone values obtained by the photometric method were smaller by 4–14% than the Dobson values. The ozone values at the hill station obtained from the photometric method were in better agreement (5%) with the Dobson values.  相似文献   

20.
Summary The evolving modes of the sea-surface temperature (SST) in the Tropical Atlantic on the short interannual (IA) timescale were obtained by performing the extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analyses on this variable separately for the 106-year (1871–1976) and 20-year (1881–1900; 1901–1920; 1921–1940; 1941–1960) periods. The equatorial and inter-hemispheric patterns manifest in the first EEOF mode of each analysis as part of the short IA evolution of the SST anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic. Another outstanding feature of the first EEOF mode of each analysis concerns the propagations of the SST anomalies in the meridional direction within the 20°N–20°S band and in the zonal direction in the sector 40°W–20°W. For all analyses, the SST anomalies propagate northward from the equator to 15°N and southward from 20°N to 15°N, with the same sign anomalies merging approximately at 15°N. On the other hand, the SST anomalies propagate westward in the sector 40°W–20°W with a propagation rate close to that of the phase speed of the fastest baroclinic Rossby wave in the ocean. So, the observed propagations of the SST anomalies in the 20°N–20°S band might result from the combined effect of the surface oceanic currents in this band and the baroclinic Rossby waves in the ocean.  相似文献   

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