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1.
Climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 concentration can impact hydrological and nitrogen cycling at the catchment scale. The objective of this study is to assess these impacts in an intensive agricultural headwater catchment in western France. A calibrated and validated agro-hydrological model was driven by output of the climate model ARPEGE under the A1B emission scenario over 30-year simulation periods. Our study indicated that with climate warming and increased atmospheric CO2, the main trends in water balance were a decrease in annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), a decrease in annual discharge and wetland extent, and a decrease in spring and summer of groundwater recharge and soil-water content. Not considering the effects of increased atmospheric CO2 in the agro-hydrological model led to overestimating discharge decrease and underestimating AET decrease and wetland extent. Climate change could influence N cycling by increasing soil N mineralisation, increasing soil denitrification in wetlands and upstream areas, and decreasing NO3–N load to streams. Since wetlands appear to be sensitive to climate change, improving modelling to better predict their responses is an important issue, especially to help plan sustainable management of these vulnerable areas.  相似文献   

2.
C. Tague  L. Seaby  A. Hope 《Climatic change》2009,93(1-2):137-155
Global Climate Models (GCMs) project moderate warming along with increases in atmospheric CO2 for California Mediterranean type ecosystems (MTEs). In water-limited ecosystems, vegetation acts as an important control on streamflow and responds to soil moisture availability. Fires are also key disturbances in semi-arid environments, and few studies have explored the potential interactions among changes in climate, vegetation dynamics, hydrology, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and fire. We model ecosystem productivity, evapotranspiration, and summer streamflow under a range of temperature and precipitation scenarios using RHESSys, a spatially distributed model of carbon–water interactions. We examine the direct impacts of temperature and precipitation on vegetation productivity and impacts associated with higher water-use efficiency under elevated atmospheric CO2. Results suggest that for most climate scenarios, biomass in chaparral-dominated systems is likely to increase, leading to reductions in summer streamflow. However, within the range of GCM predictions, there are some scenarios in which vegetation may decrease, leading to higher summer streamflows. Changes due to increases in fire frequency will also impact summer streamflow but these will be small relative to changes due to vegetation productivity. Results suggest that monitoring vegetation responses to a changing climate should be a focus of climate change assessment for California MTEs.  相似文献   

3.
The crop model CERES-Barley was used to assess the impacts of increased concentration of atmospheric CO2 on growth and development of the most important spring cereal in Central and Western Europe, i.e., spring barley, and to examine possible adaptation strategies. Three experimental regions were selected to compare the climate change impacts in various climatic and pedological conditions. The analysis was based on multi-year crop model simulations run with daily weather series obtained by stochastic weather generator and included two yield levels: stressed yields and potential yields. Four climate change scenarios based on global climate models and representing 2 × CO2 climate were applied. Results: (i) The crop model is suitable for use in the given environment, e.g., the coefficient of determination between the simulated and experimental yields equals 0.88. (ii) The indirect effect related to changed weather conditions is mostly negative. Its magnitude ranges from ?19% to +5% for the four scenarios applied at the three regions. (iii) The magnitude of the direct effect of doubled CO2 on the stressed yields for the three test sites is 35–55% in the present climate and 25–65% in the 2 × CO2 climates. (iv) The stressed yields would increase in 2 × CO2 conditions by 13–52% when both direct and indirect effects were considered. (v) The impacts of doubled CO2 on potential yields are more uniform throughout the localities in comparison with the stressed yields. The magnitude of the indirect and direct effects ranges from ?1 to ?9% and from +31 to +33%, respectively. Superposition of both effects results in 19–30% increase of the potential yields. (vi) Application of the earlier planting date (up to 60 days) would result in 15–22% increase of the yields in 2 × CO2 conditions. (vii) Use of a cultivar with longer vegetation duration would bring 1.5% yield increase per one extra day of the vegetation season. (viii) The initial water content in the soil water profile proved to be one of the key elements determining the spring barley yield. It causes the yields to increase by 54–101 kg.ha?1 per 1% increase of the available soil water content on the sowing day.  相似文献   

4.
The aim of this paper is to report on the development of regional climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan as the result of increasing of CO2 concentration in the global atmosphere. These scenarios are used in the assessment of climate change impacts on the agricultural, forest and water resources of Kazakhstan. Climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan to assess both long-term (2× CO2 in 2075) and short-term (2000, 2010 and 2030) impacts were prepared. The climate conditions under increasing CO2 concentration were estimated from three General Circulation Models (GCM) outputs: the model of the Canadian Climate Center Model (CCCM), the model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the 1% transient version of the GFDL model (GFDL-T). The near-term climate scenarios were obtained using the probabilistic forecast model (PFM) to the year 2010 and the results of GFDL-T for years 2000 and 2030. A baseline scenario representing the current climate conditions based on observations from 1951 to 1980 was developed. The assessment of climate change in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of 100-years observations is given too. As a result of comparisons of the current climate (based on observed climate) the 1× CO2 output from GCMs showed that the GFDL model best matches the observed climate. The GFDL model suggests that the minimum increase in temperature is expected in winter, when most of the territory is expected to have temperatures 2.3–4.5 °C higher. The maximum (4.3 to 8.2 °C) is expected to be in spring. CCCM scenario estimates an extreme worming above 11 °C in spring months. GFDL-T outputs provide an intermediate scenario.  相似文献   

5.
This study examines how uncertainty associated with the spatial scale of climate change scenarios influences estimates of soybean and sorghum yield response in the southeastern United States. We investigated response using coarse (300-km, CSIRO) and fine (50-km, RCM) scale climate change scenarios and considering climate changes alone, climate changes with CO2 fertilization, and climate changes with CO2 fertilization and adaptation. Relative to yields simulatedunder a current, control climate scenario, domain-wide soybean yield decreased by 49% with the coarse-scale climate change scenario alone, and by26% with consideration for CO2 fertilization. By contrast, thefine-scale climate change scenario generally exhibited higher temperatures and lower precipitation in the summer months resulting in greater yield decreases (69% for climate change alone and 54% with CO2fertilization). Changing planting date and shifting cultivars mitigated impacts, but yield still decreased by 8% and 18% respectively for the coarse andfine climate change scenarios. The results were similar for sorghum. Yield decreased by 51%, 42%, and 15% in response to fine-scaleclimate change alone, CO2 fertilization, and adaptation cases, respectively– significantly worse than with the coarse-scale (CSIRO) scenarios. Adaptation strategies tempered the impacts of moisture and temperature stress during pod-fill and grain-fill periods and also differed with respect to the scale of the climate change scenario.  相似文献   

6.
The study used a modelling approach to assess the potential impacts of likely climate change and increase in CO2 concentration on the wheat growth and water balance in Murray?CDarling Basin in Australia. Impacts of individual changes in temperature, rainfall or CO2 concentration as, well as the 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios, were analysed. Along an E?CW transect, wheat yield at western sites (warmer and drier) was simulated to be more sensitive to temperature increase than that at eastern sites; along the S?CN transect, wheat yield at northern warmer sites was simulated to be more sensitive to temperature increase, within 1?C3°C temperature increase. Along the E?CW and S?CN transects, wheat at drier sites would benefit more from elevated [CO2] than at wetter sites, but more sensitive to the decline in rainfall. The increase in temperature only did not have much impact on water balance. Elevated [CO2] increased the drainage in all the sites, whilst rainfall reduction decreased evapotranspiration, runoff and drainage, especially at drier sites. In 2050, wheat yield would increase by 1?C10% under all climate change scenarios along the S?CN transect, except for the northernmost site (Dalby). Along the E?CW transect, the most obvious increase of wheat yields under all climate change scenarios occurred in cooler and wetter eastern sites (Yass and Young), with an average increase rate of 7%. The biggest loss occurred at the driest sites (Griffith and Swan Hill) under A1FI and B2 scenarios, ranging from ?5% to ?16%. In 2070, there would be an increased risk of yield loss in general, except for the cool and wet sites. Water use efficiency was simulated to increase at most of the study sites under all the climate change scenarios, except for the driest site. Yield variability would increase at drier sites (Ardlethan, Griffith and Swan Hill). Soil types would also impact on the response of wheat yield and water balance to future climate change.  相似文献   

7.
In this the second of a two-part study, we examine the physical mechanisms responsible for the increasing contrast of the land–sea surface air temperature (SAT) in summertime over the Far East, as observed in recent decades and revealed in future climate projections obtained from a series of transient warming and sensitivity experiments conducted under the umbrella of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. On a global perspective, a strengthening of land–sea SAT contrast in the transient warming simulations of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models is attributed to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). However, in boreal summer, the strengthened contrast over the Far East is reproduced only by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. In response to SST increase alone, the tropospheric warming over the interior of the mid- to high-latitude continents including Eurasia are weaker than those over the surrounding oceans, leading to a weakening of the land–sea SAT contrast over the Far East. Thus, the increasing contrast and associated change in atmospheric circulation over East Asia is explained by CO2-induced continental warming. The degree of strengthening of the land–sea SAT contrast varies in different transient warming scenarios, but is reproduced through a combination of the CO2-induced positive and SST-induced negative contributions to the land–sea contrast. These results imply that changes of climate patterns over the land–ocean boundary regions are sensitive to future scenarios of CO2 concentration pathways including extreme cases.  相似文献   

8.
We examine the effect of climate scenarios generated using results from climate models of different spatial resolution on yields simulated by the deterministic cotton model GOSSYM for the southeastern U.S.A. Two related climate change scenarios were used: a coarse-scale scenario produced from results of a general circulation model (GCM) which also provided the boundary conditions to a regional climate model (RCM), from which a fine-scale scenario was constructed. Cotton model simulations were performed for three cases: climate change alone; climate change and elevatedCO2; climate change, elevated CO2 and adaptations to climate change. In general, significant differences in state-average projected yield changes between the coarse and fine-scale scenarios are found for these three cases. In the first two cases, different directions of change are found in some sub-regions. With adaptation, yields substantially increase for both climate scenarios, but more so for the coarse-scale scenario (30%domain-average increase). Under irrigation, yield change differences between the two climate scenarios are small in all three cases, and yields are higher under irrigation ( 35% domain-average increase with adaptation case) compared to dryland conditions. For the climate change alone case, differences in summer water-stress levels explain the contrasts in dryland yield patterns between the coarse and fine-scale climate scenarios.  相似文献   

9.
Grassland is one of the most widespread vegetation types worldwide and plays a significant role in regional climate and global carbon cycling. Understanding the sensitivity of Chinese grassland ecosystems to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 and the effect of these changes on the grassland ecosystems is a key issue in global carbon cycling. China encompasses vast grassland areas of 354 million ha of 17 major grassland types, according to a national grassland survey. In this study, a process-based terrestrial model the CENTURY model was used to simulate potential changes in net primary productivity (NPP) and soil organic carbon (SOC) of the Leymus chinensis meadow steppe (LCMS) under different scenarios of climatic change and elevated atmospheric CO2. The LCMS sensitivities, its potential responses to climate change, and the change in capacity of carbon stock and sequestration in the future are evaluated. The results showed that the LCMS NPP and SOC are sensitive to climatic change and elevated CO2. In the next 100 years, with doubled CO2 concentration, if temperature increases from 2.7-3.9˚C and precipitation increases by 10% NPP and SOC will increase by 7-21% and 5-6% respectively. However, if temperature increases by 7.5-7.8˚C and precipitation increases by only 10% NPP and SOC would decrease by 24% and 8% respectively. Therefore, changes in the NPP and SOC of the meadow steppe are attributed mainly to the amount of temperature and precipitation change and the atmospheric CO2 concentration in the future.  相似文献   

10.
The current body of research in western North America indicates that water resources in southern Alberta are vulnerable to climate change impacts. The objective of this research was to parameterize and verify the ACRU agro-hydrological modeling system for a small watershed in southern Alberta and subsequently simulate the change in future hydrological responses over 30-year simulation periods. The ACRU model successfully simulated monthly streamflow volumes (r 2?=?0.78), based on daily simulations over 27 years. The delta downscaling technique was used to perturb the 1961?C1990 baseline climate record from a range of global climate model (GCM) projections to provide the input for future hydrological simulations. Five future hydrological regimes were compared to the 1961?C1990 baseline conditions to determine the average net effect of change scenarios on the hydrological regime of the Beaver Creek watershed over three 30-year time periods (starting in 2010, 2040 and 2070). The annual projections of a warmer and mostly wetter climate in this region resulted in a shift of the seasonal streamflow distribution with an increase in winter and spring streamflow volumes and a reduction of summer and fall streamflow volumes over all time periods, relative to the baseline conditions (1961?C1990), for four of the five scenarios. Simulations of actual evapotranspiration and mean annual runoff showed a slight increase, which was attributed to warmer winters, resulting in more winter runoff and snowmelt events.  相似文献   

11.
We examined the annual exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and moist tussock and dry heath tundra ecosystems (which together account for over one-third of the low arctic land area) under ambient field conditions and under increased winter snow deposition, increased summer temperatures, or both. Our results indicate that these two arctic tundra ecosystems were net annual sources of CO2 to the atmosphere from September 1994 to September 1996 under ambient weather conditions and under our three climate change scenarios. Carbon was lost from these ecosystems in both winter and summer, although the majority of CO2 evolution took place during the short summer. Our results indicate that (1) warmer summer temperatures will increase annual CO2 efflux from both moist and dry tundra ecosystems by 45–55% compared to current ambient temperatures; (2) deeper winter snow cover will increase winter CO2 efflux in both moist and dry tundra ecosystems, but will decrease net summer CO2 efflux; and (3) deeper winter snow cover coupled with warmer summer temperatures will nearly double the annual amount of CO2 emitted from moist tundra and will result in a 24% increase in the annual CO2 efflux of dry tundra. If, as predicted, climate change alters both winter snow deposition and summer temperatures, then shifts in CO2 exchange between the biosphere and atmosphere will likely not be uniform across the Arctic tundra landscape. Increased snow deposition in dry tundra is likely to have a larger effect on annual CO2 flux than warmer summer temperatures alone or warmer temperatures coupled with increased winter snow depth. The combined effects of increased summer temperatures and winter snow deposition on annual CO2 flux in moist tundra will be much larger than the effects of either climate change scenario alone.  相似文献   

12.
Ten wheat production sites of Pakistan were categorized into four climatic zones i.e. arid, semi-arid, sub-humid and humid to explore the vulnerability of wheat production in these zones to climate change using CSM-Cropsim-CERES-Wheat model. The analysis was based on multi-year (1971–2000) crop model simulation runs using daily weather series under scenarios of increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) along with two scenarios of water management. Apart from this, sowing date as an adaptation option to offset the likely impacts of climate change was also considered. Increase in temperature resulted in yield declines in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid zone. But the humid zone followed a positive trend of gain in yield with rise in temperature up to 4°C. Within a water regime, increase in CO2 concentration from 375 to 550 and 700 ppm will exert positive effect on gain in wheat yield but this positive effect is significantly variable in different climatic zones under rainfed conditions than the full irrigation. The highest response was shown by arid zone followed by semi-arid, sub-humid and humid zones. But if the current baseline water regimes (i.e. full irrigation in arid and semi-arid zones and rainfed in sub-humid and humid zones) persist in future, the sub-humid zone will be most benefited in terms of significantly higher percent gain in yield by increasing CO2 level, mainly because of its rainfed water regime. Within a CO2 level the changes in water supply from rainfed to full irrigation shows an intense degree of responsiveness in terms of yield gain at 375 ppm CO2 level compared to 550 and 700 ppm. Arid and semi-arid zones were more responsive compared to sub-humid and humid zones. Rise in temperature reduced the length of crop life cycle in all areas, though at an accelerated rate in the humid zone. These results revealed that the climatic zones have shown a variable intensity of vulnerability to different scenarios of climate change and water management due to their inherent specific and spatial climatic features. In order to cope with the negative effects of climate change, alteration in sowing date towards cooler months will be an appropriate response by the farmers.  相似文献   

13.
Terrestrial carbon fluxes are an important factor in regulating concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, we use a coupled climate model with interactive biogeochemistry to benchmark the simulation of net primary productivity (NPP) and its response to elevated atmospheric CO2. Short-term field experiments such as Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) studies have examined this phenomenon but it is difficult to infer trends from only a few years of field data. Here, we employ the University of Victoria's Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) version 2.8 to compare simulated changes in NPP due to an elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration of 550 ppm to observed increases in NPP of 23% ±2% from four temperate forest FACE studies between 1997 and 2002. We further compare two scenarios: elevated CO2 with climate change, and elevated CO2 without climate change, the latter being consistent with FACE methodology. In the climate change scenario global terrestrial and forest-only NPP increased by 24.5% and 27.9%, respectively, while these increases were 21.0% and 17.2%, respectively, in the latitude band most representative of the location of the FACE studies. In the scenario without climate change, terrestrial and forest-only NPP increased instead by 28.3% and 30.6%, respectively, while these increases were 24.3% and 14.4%, respectively, in the FACE latitudes. This suggests that the model may underestimate temperate forest NPP increases when compared to results from temperate forest FACE studies and highlights the need for both increased experimental study of other forest biomes and further model development.  相似文献   

14.
We use the CERES family of crop models to assess the effect of different spatial scales of climate change scenarios on the simulated yield changes of maize (Zea mays L.), winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.),and rice (Oryza sativa L.) in the Southeastern United States. The climate change scenarios were produced with the control and doubled CO2 runs of a high resolution regional climate model anda coarse resolution general circulation model, which provided the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the regional model. Three different cases were considered for each scenario: climate change alone, climate change plus elevated CO2, and the latter with adaptations. On the state level,for most cases, significant differences in the climate changed yields for corn were found, the coarse scale scenario usually producing larger modeled yield decreases or smaller increases. For wheat, however, which suffered large decreases in yields for all cases, very little contrast in yield based on scale of scenario was found. Scenario scale resulted in significantly different rice yields, but mainly because of low variability in yields. For maize the primary climate variable that explained the contrast in the yields calculated from the two scenarios is the precipitation during grain fill leading to different water stress levels. Temperature during vernalization explains some contrasts in winter wheat yields. With adaptation, the contrasts in the yields of all crops produced by the scenarios were reduced but not entirely removed. Our results indicate that spatial resolution of climate change scenarios can be an important uncertainty in climate change impact assessments, depending on the crop and management conditions.  相似文献   

15.
This study explores the effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment and climate change on soil moisture (W r ) and biome-level water limitation (L TA), using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model forced by five different scenarios of change in temperature, precipitation, radiation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration, all based on the same IS92a emission scenario. L TA is defined as an index that quantifies the degree to which transpiration and photosynthesis are co-limited by soil water shortage (high values indicate low water limitation). Soil moisture decreases in many regions by 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990, though the regional pattern of change differs substantially among the scenarios due primarily to differences in GCM-specific precipitation changes. In terms of L TA, ecosystems in northern temperate latitudes are at greatest risk of increasing water limitation, while in most other latitudes L TA tends to increase (but again varies the regional pattern of change among the scenarios). The frequently opposite direction of change in W r and L TA suggests that decreases in W r are not necessarily felt by actual vegetation, which is attributable mainly to the physiological vegetation response to elevated CO2. Without this beneficial effect, the sign of change in L TA would be reversed from predominantly positive to predominantly negative.  相似文献   

16.
Carbon cycle feedbacks have been shown to be very important in predicting climate change over the next century. The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change depends on the competition between increased respiration due to warmer temperatures and increased uptake due to elevated CO2levels. Whether the terrestrial carbon cycle remains a sink for anthropogenic carbon, or switches to become a source, depends particularly on the response of soil respiration to temperature. Here we use observed global atmospheric CO2concentration to constrain the behaviour of soil respiration in a coupled climate–carbon cycle GCM.  相似文献   

17.
Climate change, such as warming and precipitation change, as well as elevated CO2 can affect soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and cause changes in soil carbon sequestration. In this study, we introduced a response equation, relating the relative change of SOC to the relative changes of annual average temperature, annual precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration, as well as their inter-products. Using Nelson Farm as a case study, based on simulations of CENTURY model and multiple regressions, we examined the response equation for three vegetation covers (i.e., soybean, corn, and grass) and scenarios with different soil erosion rates and initial SOC contents. The response equation fit the simulation results very well with high adjusted coefficients of determination (R 2) (0.982 to 0.990). The results showed that the SOC was negatively related to the annual average temperature, positively related to the annual precipitation, and positively related to the elevated CO2 for all the vegetation covers (p?<?0.001). The SOC was also significantly impacted by the interaction effects between elevated CO2 and warming or precipitation change (p?<?0.001). The general form of the response equations for the different vegetation covers, soil erosion rates, and initial SOC contents was the same although the parameters varied with the different conditions. Based on the response equation, ??cutoff surfaces?? were defined to clearly quantify the synthesis effects of any possible combination of climate change and elevated CO2 on the SOC, and the SOC sequestration potential was assessed under climate change and elevated CO2 for different vegetations. Compared with the empirical models in the literature, this response equation provides a simple yet but robust method to represent the relationship between the SOC relative change vs. the relative changes of atmospheric temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  相似文献   

18.
The potential impacts of climate change on potatoes cropping in the Peruvian highlands (Altiplano) is assessed using climate projections for 2071–2100, obtained from the HadRM3P regional atmospheric model of the Hadley Centre. The atmospheric model is run under two different special report on emission scenarios: high CO2 concentration (A2) and moderate CO2 concentration (B2) for four locations situated in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca. The two main varieties of potato cultivated in the area are studied: the Andean potato (Solanum tuberosum) and the bitter potato (Solanum juzepczukii). A simple process-oriented model is used to quantify the climatic impacts on crops cycles and yields by combining the effects of temperature on phenology, of radiation and CO2 on maximum yield and of water balance on yield deficit. In future climates, air temperature systematically increases, precipitation tends to increase at the beginning of the rainy season and slightly decreases during the rest of the season. The direct effects of these climatic changes are earlier planting dates, less planting failures and shorter crop cycles in all the four locations and for both scenarios. Consequently, the harvesting dates occur systematically earlier: roughly in January for the Andean potato instead of March in the current situation and in February for the bitter potato instead of April. Overall, yield deficits will be higher under climate change than in the current climate. There will be a strong negative impact on yields for S. tuberosum (stronger under A2 scenario than under B2); the impact on S. juzepczukii yields, however, appears to be relatively mixed and not so negative.  相似文献   

19.
The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 under the IPCC SRES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO2 concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30–50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35–54%) were projected in northern European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO2 concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to present-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios.  相似文献   

20.
Spatial patterns of the standard deviation and skewness of daily and monthly mean summer temperature were studied with the climate model Institute of Numerical Mathematics Climate Model version 4 for three scenarios: simulation of the preindustrial climate, effect of quadrupling CO2 concentrations, and simulation of transient climate change for the period 1850–2100. In high skewness regions of the simulated preindustrial climate, hot periods exceeded the number expected for a normal distribution by a factor of 2–8. In the model in which CO2 concentrations were quadrupled, we found an increase in standard deviation and a northward shift of the area with positive skewness compared with the preindustrial scenario. The maximum increase in summer mean temperature was found in subtropical areas. The maximum increase in temperature averaged over the warmest 30 % of days was about 500 km to the north of the region of maximum increase of seasonal mean temperature, in the area where standard deviation was increased. The maximum increase in temperature averaged over the warmest 0.1 % of days was 500 km further north again, in an area of increased skewness. In the transient climate change simulation for 1850–2100, there was a noticeable increase in temperature of the warmest days exceeding the summer mean temperature in regions with increased skewness. In regions with decreased skewness, there was only a small increase or no rise at all in temperature for the warmest days under transient global warming.  相似文献   

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