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1.
The anticipated change of climatic conditions within the next decades is thought to have far reaching consequences for agricultural cropping systems. The success of crop production in China, the world's most populous country, will also have effects on the global food supply. More than 30% of the cropping area in China is irrigated producing the major part of the agricultural production. To model the effects of climate change on irrigation requirements for crop production in China a high-resolution (0.25°, monthly time series for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) gridded climate data set that specifically allows for the effects of topography on climate was integrated with digital soil data in a GIS. Observed long-term trends of monthly means as well as trends of interannual variations were combined for climate scenarios for the year 2030 with average conditions as well as ‘best case’ and ‘worst case’ scenarios.Regional cropping calendars with allowance for multiple cropping systems and the adaptation of the begin and length of the growing season to climatic variations were incorporated in the FAO water balance model to calculate irrigation amounts to obtain maximum yields for the period 1951–1990 and the climate scenarios.During the period 1951–1990 irrigation demand displayed a considerable variation both in temporal and spatial respects. Future scenarios indicate a varied pattern of generally increasing irrigation demand and an enlargement of the subtropical cropping zone rather than a general northward drift of all zones as predicted by GCM models. The effects of interannual variability appear to have likely more impact on future cropping conditions than the anticipated poleward migration of cropping zones.  相似文献   

2.
This study documents the new PLACE soil hydrology model, and examines the effects of various parameterization schemes on the solution of the Richards equation. Richards equation is the basis upon which many of the land surface schemes participating in the PILPS experiments model soil water transport. Generally, the integration is carried out using a coarse model grid, which makes the solution more sensitive to particulars of the parameterization scheme. Parameterization schemes for the lower boundary condition, lateral interflow, and for moisture fluxes between model layers are tested in PLACE using both high and low resolution grids. Simulations were made using PILPS-HAPEX forcing data and soil and vegetation parameters. The soil hydrology model is validated against the annual observed HAPEX soil moisture profiles. The predicted evapotranspiration is also compared to a value computed from the PILPS-HAPEX forcing data using the Penman-Monteith equation.When testing a low-resolution soil grid typical of land surface schemes, predicted soil moisture was found to be highly sensitive to the interpolation method for computing vertical moisture fluxes between model layers. A new interpolation method for low resolution models is proposed and tested. It reproduces the high resolution model results more faithfully, over the entire range of soil moisture, than two methods commonly applied in the literature. Further tests demonstrate that by varying the parameterizations for lower boundary condition and the treatment of lateral flow (collectively called drainage), the predicted total annual evapotranspiration may range between 74% and 97% of the incident precipitation in this case. Both of these parameterizations involve one free parameter, and both are largely unconstrained by the available observations. Good overall agreement between the PLACE predicted and HAPEX observed soil moisture profiles was attained by varying these two PLACE drainage parameters over their respective ranges for a series of model simulations. Root-mean square error tests were then used to determine the set of parameters which corresponded to the best predicted soil moisture profile. However, the best predicted soil moisture profiles do not correspond with the best predicted evapotranspiration. This inconsistency occurs not only for PLACE, but, to varying degrees, for all of the land-surface schemes participating in PILPS-HAPEX.  相似文献   

3.
Interannual variability of regional climate was investigated on a seasonal basis. Observations and two global climate model (GCM) simulations were intercompared to identify model biases and climate change signals due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Observed record length varies from 40 to 100 years, while the model output comes from two 100-year equilibrium climate simulations corresponding to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at observed 1990 and projected 2050 levels. The GCM includes an atmosphere based on the NCAR CCM1 with the addition of the radiative effects of CH4, N2O and CFCs, a bulk layer land surface and a mixed-layer ocean with thermodynamic sea-ice and fixed meridional oceanic heat transport.Because comparisons of interannual variability are sensitive to the time period chosen, a climate ensemble technique has been developed. This technique provides comparisons between variance ratios of two time series for all possible contiguous sub-periods of a fixed length. The time autocorrelation is thus preserved within each sub-period. The optimal sub-period length was found to be 30 years, based on which robust statistics of the ensemble were obtained to identify substantial differences in interannual variability that are both physically important and statistically significant.Several aspects of observed interannual variability were reproduced by the GCM. These include: global surface air temperature; Arctic sea-ice extent; and regional variability of surface air temperature, sea level pressure and 500 mb height over about one quarter of the observed data domains. Substantial biases, however, exist over broad regions, where strong seasonality and systematic links between variables were identified. For instance, during summer substantially greater model variability was found for both surface air temperature and sea-level pressure over land areas between 20–50°N, while this tendency was confined to 20–30°N in other seasons. When greenhouse gas concentrations increase, atmospheric moisture variability is substantially larger over areas that experience the greatest surface warming. This corresponds to an intensified hydrologic cycle and, hence, regional increases in precipitation variability. Surface air temperature variability increases where hydrologic processes vary greatly or where mean soil moisture is much reduced. In contrast, temperature variability decreases substantially where sea-ice melts completely. These results indicate that regional changes in interannual variability due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are associated with mechanisms that depend on the variable and season.  相似文献   

4.
Two Mediterranean sea level distributions spanning the last decades are examined. The first one is a reconstruction of sea level obtained by a reduced-space optimal interpolation applied to tide gauge and altimetry data. The second distribution is obtained from a 3D (baroclinic) regional circulation model. None of the two representations includes the mechanical atmospheric forcing. Results are presented for two different periods: 1993–2000 (for which altimetry data are available) and 1961–2000 (the longest period common to both distributions).The first period is examined as a test period for the model, since the reconstruction is very similar to altimetry observations. The modelled sea level is in fair agreement with the reconstruction in the Western Mediterranean and in the Aegean Sea (except in the early nineties), but in the Ionian Sea the model departs from observations. For the whole period 1961–2000 the main feature is a marked positive trend in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.8 mm yr− 1), observed both in the reconstruction and in the model. Also the distribution of positive trends in the Western Mediterranean (mean value of 1.1 mm yr− 1) and the smaller trends in the Aegean Sea (0.5 mm yr− 1) are similar in the reconstruction and in the model, despite the first implicitly accounts for sea level variations due to remote sources such as ice melting and the second does not. The interannual sea level variability associated with key regional events such as the Eastern Mediterranean Transient is apparently captured by the reconstruction but not by the model (at least in its present configuration). Hence, the reconstruction can be envisaged as a useful tool to validate further long-term numerical simulations in the region.  相似文献   

5.
In the western United States, more than 79 000 km2 has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. These changes have the potential to alter surface temperature by modifying the energy budget at the land–atmosphere interface. This study reports the seasonally varying temperature responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) – RSM, RegCM3, MM5-CLM3, and DRCM – to conversion of potential natural vegetation to modern land-cover and land-use over a 1-year period. Three of the RCMs supplemented soil moisture, producing large decreases in the August mean (− 1.4 to − 3.1 °C) and maximum (− 2.9 to − 6.1 °C) 2-m air temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture also resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9% to 36% absolute change). Modeled changes in the August minimum 2-m air temperature were not as pronounced or consistent across the models. Converting natural vegetation to urban land-cover produced less pronounced temperature effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effect dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type and urban parameterizations. Overall, the RCM results indicate that the temperature impacts of land-use change are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface soil moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest.  相似文献   

6.
Periodic variations in Davis' experimental data concerning the solar neutrino capture rate are derived on the basis of a Fourier spectrum analysis. Variations in the 37Ar production rate are obtained for a series of randomly spaced observations in the period 1970–1985 (runs 18–89). The harmonic analysis of runs 18–89 has determined solar neutrino capture rate variations with periods of 8.33, 5.00, 2.13, 1.61, 0.83, 0.61, 0.54, and 0.51 yr, thereby confirming earlier calculations performed for the set of runs 18–69 (1983), 18–74 (1985a), and 18–80 (1985b). The results also confirm those of Sakurai (1979) who showed that there is strong evidence that the observed solar neutrino flux has a tendency to vary with quasi-biennial periodicity. We show that the results of the Fourier spectrum analysis do not depend upon certain high or low values in Davis' experimental data.  相似文献   

7.
Detailed examination of the variations in the intensity of soft X-ray emission prior to many solar flares are presented. In addition, these preflare intensity variations are contrasted with the variations typically observed for the same active regions in the absence of a flare. It is shown that a 5–20 min preflare brightening phase is not typically observed. These observations are discussed in context with other complimentary investigations and theoretical models.  相似文献   

8.
A new land surface parameterization scheme (ALSIS), with emphasis on soil moisture prediction, is described and validated with observations from HAPEX-MOBILHY and Cabauw. An important feature of the scheme is the inclusion of vertical heterogeneity of soil hydraulic parameters is modelling unsaturated flow. The simulated soil moisture for HAPEX site using a vertically homogeneous soil has a positive bias in the upper soil layers and a negative bias in the deep soil layers. Taking into account the soil vertical heterogeneity greatly eliminates this discrepancy and results in an excellent agreement between annual cycles of modelled and observed soil moisture profiles. The mean annual soil moisture in the top 1.6 m of soil increased from 394 mm for homogeneous case to 433 mm for the heterogeneous case, consistent with 435 mm observed. The improvement in soil moisture simulation resulted in an improved skill in predicting the mean and the diurnal cycles of surface fluxes for the intensive observational period (28 May–3 July). The simulated monthly averages of surface temperature and fluxes follow observations over the year, except for January when the model overestimates the latent heat flux due to its failure in simulating high rates of dew fall. The deviation of modelled monthly mean surface fluxes from observations are well within the estimated observational errors. The simulated mean daily surface temperature, and surface fluxes are generally consistent with observations, except for some times in the winter period. The modelled diurnal cycles of temperature and fluxes are in agreement with those observed. However, the model overestimates the night-time latent heat flux, especially during January.  相似文献   

9.
The role of tropical ecosystems in global carbon cycling is uncertain, at least partially due to an incomplete understanding of climatic forcings of carbon fluxes. To reduce this uncertainty, we simulated and analyzed 1982–1999 Amazonian, African, and Asian carbon fluxes using the Biome-BGC prognostic carbon cycle model driven by National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis daily climate data. We first characterized the individual contribution of temperature, precipitation, radiation, and vapor pressure deficit to interannual variations in carbon fluxes and then calculated trends in gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP). In tropical ecosystems, variations in solar radiation and, to a lesser extent, temperature and precipitation, explained most interannual variation in GPP. On the other hand, temperature followed by solar radiation primarily determined variation in NPP. Tropical GPP gradually increased in response to increasing atmospheric CO2. Confirming earlier studies, changes in solar radiation played a dominant role in CO2 uptake over the Amazon relative to other tropical regions. Model results showed negligible impacts from variations and trends in precipitation or vapor pressure deficits on CO2 uptake.  相似文献   

10.
Sea level trends and inter-annual variability in the Mediterranean Sea for the period 1960–2000 is explored by comparing observations from tide gauges with sea level hindcasts from a barotropic 2D circulation model, and two full primitive equation 3D ocean circulation models, a regional one and the Mediterranean component of a global one,. In the 2D model, 50% of the sea level variance was found to result from the wind and atmospheric pressure forcing. In the 3D models, 20% of the sea level variance was explained by the steric effects. The sea level residuals at the tide gauges locations, calculated by subtraction of the 2D model output from the sea level observations are significantly correlated (r = 0.4) with the steric signals from the 3D models. After the removal of the atmospheric and the steric contributions the tide-gauge sea level records indicate a period where sea level was stable (1960–1975) and a period where sea level was rising (1975–2000) with rates in the range 1.1–1.8 mm/yr. A part of the residual trend can be explained by the contribution of local land movements (0.3 mm/yr) while its major part indicates a global signal, probably mass addition, appearing after 1975.  相似文献   

11.
The average profile of Forbush decreases, produced by eastern-, central- and western-region solar flares is obtained separately by superposed epoch analysis for the periods 1966–1969 (qA < 0) and 1971–1979 (qA > 0). It is observed that the recovery of an average Forbush decrease from the maximum depression level is faster for the situation qA > 0 than for the situation qA < 0. This is in accordance with expectations from the drift theory. It is also observed that the drift effect is more pronounced for western-flare Forbush decreases which, of course, have a smaller magnitude compared to eastern- and central-flare Forbush decreases.The average profiles of simple and complex type Forbush decreases are also obtained separately for three periods 1965–1979, 1971–1979, and 1981–1987. It is found that the average profiles of simple and complex type Forbush decreases observed during the period 1965–1969 and 1971– 1979 are quite in agreement with drift theory. The anomalous behavior of average Forbush-decrease profiles during the period 1981–1987, especially in simple type Forbush decreases, is also explained by a drift current sheet tilt model.  相似文献   

12.
The land-surface flux model (PROGSURF) designed jointly at the Universities of Vienna and Budapest is reviewed; it belongs to the broad spectrum of PILPS1 models. PROGSURF comprises one vegetation layer and three soil layers. Temperature prediction is made by the heat conduction equation in conjunction with the force-restore method. Turbulent heat fluxes are parameterized by gradient laws using the resistance concept. The formula for the canopy surface resistance involves both a parameter describing atmospheric demand and one describing moisture availability. Soil moisture prediction is made with Richards' equation. PROGSURF is tested in off-line mode for the Cabauw data set. The observed annual mean values of the state and flux quantities at the earth's surface are well reproduced. For example, the model yields latent and sensible heat fluxes of −35.3 and −2.4 W/m2, respectively; evapotranspiration and runoff is −449 and 326 mm/yr; and root zone soil moisture content is 0.344 m3/m3. Further, the seasonal changes of water and energy balance components are well simulated. The sensitivity of PROGSURF to the canopy resistance formulation is analysed. We find that the atmospheric demand is largely represented by the saturation value of the evapotranspiration/soil moisture curve with maximum summer impact upon the annual value and further that the moisture availability is represented by the slope of the evapotranspiration curve. Both saturation value and slope control the amplitude of the seasonal fluctuation of the water balance components; at Cabauw site the saturation value is the governing parameter. These results fit satisfactorily into the other PILPS models. In particular, we are able to reproduce with PROGSURF the total variability of most other PILPS models by simply changing the atmospheric demand and soil moisture availability parameters. PROGSURF presently serves to simulate observed surface fluxes for an atmospheric diagnostic model.  相似文献   

13.
This study investigates past sea level reconstruction (over 1950–2003) based on tide gauge records and EOF spatial patterns from different 2-D fields. In a first step, we test the influence on the reconstructed signal of the 2-D fields temporal coverage. For that purpose we use global grids of thermosteric sea level data, available over 1950–2003. Different time spans (in the range 10–50 yr) for the EOF spatial patterns, and different geographical distributions for the 1-D thermosteric sea level time series (interpolated at specific locations from the 2-D grids), are successively used to reconstruct the 54-year long thermosteric sea level signal. In each case we compare the reconstructed trend map with the reference. The simulation indicates that the longer the time span covered by the spatial EOFs, the closer to the reference the reconstructed thermosteric sea level trends. In a second step, we apply the method to reconstructing 2-D sea level data over 1950–2003, combining sparse tide gauge records available since 1950, with EOF spatial patterns from different sources: (1) thermosteric sea level grids over 1955–2003, (2) sea level grids from Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry over 1993–2003, and (3) dynamic height grids from the SODA reanalysis over 1958–2001. The reconstructed global mean sea level trend based on thermosteric EOFs (case 1) is significantly lower than the observed trend, while the interannual/decadal sea level fluctuations are well reproduced. Case 2 (Topex/Poseidon EOFs over 1993–2003) leads to a global mean sea level trend over the 54-year time interval very close to the observed trend. But the spatial trends of the reconstruction over 1950–2003 are significantly different from those obtained with thermosteric EOFs. Case 3 (SODA EOFs over 1958–2001) provides a reconstruction trend map over 1950–2003 that differs significantly from the previous two cases. We discuss possible causes for such differences. For the three cases, on the other hand, reconstructed spatial trends over 1993–2003 agree well with the regional sea level trends observed by Topex/Poseidon.  相似文献   

14.
A new method of processing of visual meteor data has been worked outand applied to Perseid meteor shower observations. Reduced meteor hourly rates with magnitudes brighter than +3 are proportional to meteor flux densities with a coefficient equals to the effective collecting area. Corrections due to moon light and for meteor path lenghts were applied. Our observations 1972–1979 and 1982–1990 gave similar hourly rate profiles with a maximum rate of 71 meteors at solar longitude L=140.36°. Perseids 1980 and 1981 were about 1.5 times more active. The maximum Perseid activity in 1991–1992 was 119 meteors at solar longitude 139.54° and narrow peaks are observed at the same longitude showing an enhanced activity up to 225 meteors.  相似文献   

15.
J. P. Rozelot 《Solar physics》1998,177(1-2):321-327
The objective of this paper is to present some results deduced from the analysis of (space-based) solar irradiance observations used jointly with (ground-based) solar diameter variations. The idea which is explored consists in searching a possible influence of the variability of the Sun's whole shape on the luminosity. It is shown that such an effect, albeit small, may occur. Thus, the global geometry of the Sun – which is not a perfect static ellipsoid – would have to be taken into account when attempting to model the irradiance. Our very preliminary results may help to construct empirical models that can be used, in turn to force any model of the thermal structure of the ocean and atmosphere to deduce climate variations, if any.  相似文献   

16.
Results from the 14 land surface parameterization schemes involved in the PILPS-RICE Workshop are compared for a soya crop growing season (from June to September). During this period, the transpiration flux dominates the total surface evapotranspiration and observed data from HAPEX-MOBILHY are available for comparison. Results indicate that during the month of June half of the models fall within the uncertainty range of the observations. The scatter between models behaviour is explained by three major reasons:
• The functional dependency between soil moisture and transpiration;
• the initial moisture content at the beginning of the period;
• the vertical discretization within the soil and the extension of the root system that defines the soil water holding capacity for plants
Examination of diurnal cycles of evaporation reveals that formulations based on the supply-demand concept are very sensitive to the specification of the root zone.This analysis underlines the need for more sensitivity experiments to be done with the current forcing data set and more detailed datasets to be collected in future field experiments (e.g. latent heat flux during all the growing season, root zone distribution).  相似文献   

17.
We present the hydrometeorology of eastern Asia during April 1995 simulated by the Regional Climate System Model. The amount and location of simulated monthly precipitation agrees well with observations. Soil water content variation was closely correlated with precipitation. Land-surface evaporation and the surface energy budget were strongly controlled by soil moisture content. A sensitivity test with reduced initial soil moisture content suggested that near-surface soil moisture spins up quickly after heavy precipitation events. However, variations in the initial soil moisture field may alter details of the simulated precipitation which can introduce further complexity in climate simulations.  相似文献   

18.
大气角动量变化以及对地球自转季节变化的激发   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  
利用日本气象局AMIPⅡ大气数值模式的输出结果，基于BP方法和SP方法计算了1979年至1996年大气角动量变化以及对地球自转季节变化激发的差异。利用最小二乘谐波拟合方法和气候平均图方法，分析了大气角动量的季节变化，并与同时期采用NCEP再分析资料和JMA客观分析资料计算的大气角动量进行比较。  相似文献   

19.
Experimental results on the intensity, energy spectrum and time variations in hard X-ray emission from Cyg X-1 based on a balloon observation made on 1971, April 6 from Hyderabad (India) are described. The average energy spectrum of Cyg X-1 in the 22–154 keV interval on 1971 April 6 is best represented by a power law dN/dE=(5.41±1.53)E –(1.92±0.10) photons cm–2s–1 keV–1 which is in very good agreement with the spectrum of Cyg X-1 derived from an earlier observation made by us on 1969 April 16 in the 25–151 keV band and given by dN/dE=(3.54±2.44)E –(1.89±0.22) photons cm–2s–1 keV–1. A thermal bremsstrahlung spectrum fails to give a good fit over the entire energy range for both the observations. Comparison with the observations of other investigators shows that almost all balloon experiments consistently give a spectrum of E –2, while below 20 keV the spectrum varies fromE –1.7 toE –5. There is some indication of a break in the Cyg X-1 spectrum around 20 keV. Spectral analysis of data in different time intervals for the 1971 April 6 flight demonstrates that while the source intensity varies over time scales of a few minutes, there is no appreciable variation in the spectral slope. Analysis of various hard X-ray observations for long term variations shows that over a period of about a week the intensity of Cyg X-1 varies upto a factor of four. The binary model proposed by Dolan is examined and the difficulties in explaining the observed features of Cyg X-1 by this model are pointed out.  相似文献   

20.
Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2004 period, thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2004, and tide gauge records are analyzed to investigate the interannual variability of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) and its relationship with ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). Both the interannual variations of the observed sea level and the thermosteric sea level are closely related to ENSO. An ‘enigma’ that the SST and sea level in the SCS have inverse response to ENSO is revealed. It is found that the thermosteric sea level has an excellent correspondence to seawater temperature at 100 m depth, and their variations are unsynchronized to SST. Detailed analysis denotes that the warming of seawater occurs only in the upper 75 m during and after the mature phase of El Niño, while the cooling appears in the layers deeper than 75 m during El Niño years. The volume transports between the SCS and the adjacent oceans and the anomalous Ekman pumping contribute a lot for the sea level fall in the developing stage of El Niño, while the mass exchange, which is dominated by precipitation, plays a more significant role in the following continuous negative sea level anomalies.  相似文献   

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