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1.
H. Daniel Stillwell 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(2):131-159
Natural hazards and disasters occur widely throughout the world. Disasters can be costly both in terms of human lives and property and ecosystem disruption. Higher death tolls in developing nations may be the result of poverty, rapid population growth, urbanization, and inadequate communication facilities. The purpose of this study is to show patterns of major catastrophic events in Latin America so that their impacts can be evaluated and compared.Latin America was selected because of the variety of recent events commanding wide attention: earthquakes in Mexico, volcanic eruptions in Colombia, hurricanes and floods in Haiti, and drought and mudflows in Brazil. Spatial and temporal aspects of natural disasters are presented in nine tables and 21 maps. The tables give selected disaster data by country for volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, and atmospheric disturbances from the 16th century to 1989. Most data is derived from disasters occurring during the 20th century and include number of events, people killed, people affected, and U.S.$ damage. Maps show environmental settings for disasters and allow detailed comparison among countries. Floods account for the greatest number of major events in the most countries, earthquakes cause the most deaths and damage, while droughts affect the most people. Peru surpasses all others in susceptibility to major disasters. Assessment of vulnerability to hazards, improved economic opportunities, and an increased social and political concern for poor people should help reduce future losses from natural disasters in Latin America. 相似文献
2.
Lara Alejandro Bucci Felipe Palma Cristobal Munizaga Juan Montre-Águila Victor 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(2):1935-1957
Natural Hazards - Chilean geography exposes the country to high-level risks such as earthquakes and tsunamis. The disasters of 1930, 1960, 2010, and 2014 testify to the continuous link between... 相似文献
3.
Tropical cyclone (TC) disasters have frequently caused casualties in the coastal areas of China. According to the statistics of dead and missing people due to TCs from 1951 to 2014, the number of fatalities has been significantly decreasing over time. However, deadly TC events have still caused great losses of life in recent years, which are characterized as significant abrupt fluctuations superimposed along the downward trend of the long-term fatality time series. The numbers of fatalities caused by TC disasters are influenced by variables such as the intensity of TC hazards, the population exposed to TCs and the vulnerability of people to TC hazards. It is thus of great significance to analyze their temporal characteristics and understand the forces driving these changes. First, the time series of the TC wind, precipitation, spatial distribution of population, fatality and disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures of China from 1951 to 2014 are reconstructed. Second, the improved power dissipation index, total precipitation, integrated intensity and index of exposed population are calculated, and the population vulnerability indices, including mean and relative fatality rates, are derived. Third, the change trend of each index is detected using the Mann–Kendall test. Finally, the main driving factors of the long-term change trend and fluctuations of the TC fatalities are analyzed by a negative binomial regression model and standard deviation statistics. It is found that the decrease in vulnerability based on the improvement in structural and non-structural measures is the main driving force of the decreases in fatalities over the past six decades. Although the total population and exposure have increased dramatically in the coastal areas of China, their contributions to the increase in the fatality risk were counteracted by the decrease in vulnerability. Abrupt and catastrophic disasters were mostly caused by TCs with hazards of high intensity that surpassed the capacity of structural measures; the lack of forecasting or early warning, as well as improper emergency response actions, may also have triggered the great loss of lives. To reduce the fatalities of future TCs, especially those that may exceed the capacity of structural measures, the enhancement of non-structural measures and the adaptation of resilience strategies should be priorities for future people-centered disaster management.
相似文献4.
Exploring the characteristics of major natural disasters in China and their impacts during the past decades 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
The exploration of the characteristics of natural disasters (NDs) and their impacts have important implications for guiding disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper discussed the characteristics of the major NDs that occurred in mainland China between 1980 and 2011 based on the number of disasters and fatalities, the affected population, and the resulting economic damages. We further examined the relationships between the level of social/economic development and the disaster losses. At last, we also explored the trend variations in disaster losses and losses expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (losses/GDP) for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1990 to 2011. The results show that over the past three decades, the number of major NDs and the number of affected population appear to exhibit a detectable increasing trend, while the direct economic losses and the deaths show a slight increase trend. The correlations between the number of disasters and the economic losses as well as deaths and between the economic losses and socioeconomic status were not significant (p > 0.05), which indicates that the growth in the number of disasters do not result in a significant increase in the disaster losses. Further investigations demonstrate that as economies develop, there are fewer losses/GDP in China over the past two decades. The per capita accumulative losses and losses/GDP in the western and central regions were higher than that in the eastern parts of China. There are significant regional differences in the trends in disaster losses and losses/GDP in China. Statistics also indicate that more than 70 % provinces in underdeveloped regions show an increasing trend in disaster losses, whereas exceeding 90 % provinces exhibit a decreasing trend in their losses/GDP. These results suggest that the economic development may have played an important role in improving the capacity of disaster prevention and reduction. 相似文献
5.
Identifying and analyzing the urban–rural differences of social vulnerability to natural hazards is imperative to ensure that urbanization develops in a way that lessens the impacts of disasters and generate building resilient livelihoods in China. Using data from the 2000 and 2010 population censuses, this study conducted an assessment of the social vulnerability index (SVI) by applying the projection pursuit cluster model. The temporal and spatial changes of social vulnerability in urban and rural areas were then examined during China’s rapid urbanization period. An index of urban–rural differences in social vulnerability (SVID) was derived, and the global and local Moran’s I of the SVID were calculated to assess the spatial variation and association between the urban and rural SVI. In order to fully determine the impacts of urbanization in relation to social vulnerability, a spatial autoregressive model and Bivariate Moran’s I between urbanization and SVI were both calculated. The urban and rural SVI both displayed a steadily decreasing trend from 2000 to 2010, although the urban SVI was always larger than the rural SVI in the same year. In 17.5% of the prefectures, the rural SVI was larger than the urban SVI in 2000, but was smaller than the urban SVI in 2010. About 12.6% of the urban areas in the prefectures became less vulnerable than rural areas over the study period, while in more than 51.73% of the prefectures the urban–rural SVI gap decreased over the same period. The SVID values in all prefectures had a significantly positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial clusters were apparent. Over time, social vulnerability to natural hazards at the prefecture-level displayed a gathering–scattering pattern across China. Though a regional variation of social vulnerability developed during China’s rapid urbanization, the overall trend was for a steady reduction in social vulnerability in both urban and rural areas.
相似文献6.
While laboratory and analytical studies can provide valuable information about earthquake hazard mitigation, the most effective educator is the impact of a full-scale earthquake on a full-scale city. The recent earthquakes in Turkey showed that the governmental as well as individual attitudes towards earthquakes did not represent proportionate responses to the risk levels concerned. Turkey had weaknesses in preparing, planning, mitigating and responding to disasters in spite of the known seismic vulnerability of the country. Many steps have been taken after 1999 earthquakes in Turkey, however, the preparations largely concentrate on the response and recovery phases and a fundamental step to reform the current disaster management system and steps to rehabilitate the vulnerable building stock has not been undertaken until today. This would involve changing the present laws and regulations and de-centralising the disaster management system. The aim of this paper is to propose a national mitigation strategy for Turkey for a time-frame of 10 years. The model proposed is a very comprehensive model for earthquake risk reduction in Turkey and within this context, the legislative and technical aspects of mitigation will be discussed in detail. Strategies for mitigating and retrofitting the existing building stock will also be proposed. 相似文献
7.
Most of the recent earthquakes in Iran were associated with some types of geological hazards that were the cause of additional damage and casualties in the earthquake-affected areas. In order to reduce the impacts of geo-hazards, several policies and plans were prepared, approved, and implemented by the Iranian government during the last two decades. However, such activities have not yet resulted in risk reduction to an acceptable level; since they are not formulated based on local conditions and are not linked to location-specific comprehensive plans. In this paper, after introducing some of the impacts of geo-hazards associated with recent earthquakes in Iran, the country trends in development of relevant risk reduction plans and policies are introduced, evaluated, and compared with some other countries having similar challenges. Strategies toward risk mitigation in the country are addressed, and a number of indices for the assessment of the geo-hazard risk reduction plans and activities are introduced. Finally, a conceptual model for the evaluation of the preparedness level against geo-hazards is proposed and discussed. 相似文献
8.
Iran is one of the most seismically active countries of the world located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt. More than
180,000 people were killed due to earthquakes in Iran during the last five decades. Considering the fact that most Iranians
live in masonry and non-engineered houses, having a comprehensive program for decreasing the vulnerability of society holds
considerable importance. For this reason, loss estimation should be done before an earthquake strikes to prepare proper information
for designing and selection of emergency plans and the retrofitting strategies prior to occurrence of earthquake. The loss
estimation process consists of two principal steps of hazard analysis and vulnerability assessment. After identifying the
earthquake hazard, the first step is to evaluate the vulnerability of residential buildings and lifelines and also the social
and economic impacts of the earthquake scenarios. Among these, residential buildings have specific importance, because their
destruction will disturb the daily life and result in casualties. Consequently, the vulnerability assessment of the buildings
in Iran is important to identify the weak points in the built environment structure. The aim of this research is to prepare
vulnerability curves for the residential buildings of Iran to provide a proper base for estimating probable damage features
by future earthquakes. The estimation may contribute fundamentally for better seismic performance of Iranian societies. After
a brief review of the vulnerability assessment methods in Iran and other countries, through the use of the European Macroseismic
method, a model for evaluating the vulnerability of the Iranian buildings is proposed. This method allows the vulnerability
assessment for numerous sets of buildings by defining the vulnerability curves for each building type based on the damage
observations of previous earthquakes. For defining the vulnerability curves, a building typology classification is presented
in this article, which is representative of Iranian building characteristics. The hazard is described in terms of the macroseismic
intensity and the EMS-98 damage grades have been considered for classifying the physical damage to the buildings. The calculated
vulnerability indexes and vulnerability curves show that for engineered houses there is not any notable difference between
the vulnerability of Iranian and Risk-UE building types. For the non-engineered houses, the vulnerability index of brick and
steel structures is less than the corresponding values of the other unreinforced masonry buildings of Iran. The vulnerability
index of unreinforced and masonry buildings of Iran are larger than the values of the similar types in Risk-UE and so the
Iranian buildings are more vulnerable in this regard. 相似文献
9.
Land-cover classification and analysis of change using machine-learning classifiers and multi-temporal remote sensing imagery 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Frequent human activity and rapid urbanization have led to an assortment of environmental issues. Monitoring land-cover change is critical to efficient environmental management and urban planning. The current study had two objectives. The first was to compare pixel-based random forest (RF) and decision tree (DT) classifier methods and a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm both in pixel-based and object-based approaches for classification of land-cover in a heterogeneous landscape for 2010. The second was to examine spatio-temporal land-cover change over the last two decades (1990–2010) using Landsat data. This study found that the object-based SVM classifier is the most accurate with an overall classification accuracy of 93.54% and a kappa value of 0.88. A post-classification change detection algorithm was used to determine the trend of change between land-cover classes. The most significant change from 1990 to 2010 was caused by the expansion of built-up areas. In addition to the net changes, the rate of annual change for each phenomenon was calculated to obtain a better understanding of the process of change. Between 1990 and 2010, an average of 4.53% of lands turned to the built-up annually and there was an annual decrease of about 0.81% in natural land. If the current trend of change continues, regardless of the actions of sustainable development, drastic declines in natural areas will ensue. The results of this study can be a valuable baseline for land-cover managers in the region to better understand the current situation and adopt appropriate strategies for management of land-cover. 相似文献
10.
Fatal landslides in Europe 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
Ubydul Haque Philipp Blum Paula F. da Silva Peter Andersen Jürgen Pilz Sergey R. Chalov Jean-Philippe Malet Mateja Jemec Auflič Norina Andres Eleftheria Poyiadji Pedro C. Lamas Wenyi Zhang Igor Peshevski Halldór G. Pétursson Tayfun Kurt Nikolai Dobrev Juan Carlos García-Davalillo Matina Halkia Stefano Ferri George Gaprindashvili Johanna Engström David Keellings 《Landslides》2016,13(6):1545-1554
Landslides are a major hazard causing human and large economic losses worldwide. However, the quantification of fatalities and casualties is highly underestimated and incomplete, thus, the estimation of landslide risk is rather ambitious. Hence, a spatio-temporal distribution of deadly landslides is presented for 27 European countries over the last 20 years (1995–2014). Catastrophic landslides are widely distributed throughout Europe, however, with a great concentration in mountainous areas. In the studied period, a total of 1370 deaths and 784 injuries were reported resulting from 476 landslides. Turkey showed the highest fatalities with 335. An increasing trend of fatal landslides is observed, with a pronounced number of fatalities in the latest period from 2008 to 2014. The latter are mostly triggered by natural extreme events such as storms (i.e., heavy rainfall), earthquakes, and floods and only minor by human activities, such as mining and excavation works. Average economic loss per year in Europe is approximately 4.7 billion Euros. This study serves as baseline information for further risk mapping by integrating deadly landslide locations, local land use data, and will therefore help countries to protect human lives and property. 相似文献
11.
Appropriate emergency preparedness and response rely on social, economical, cultural, and political infrastructures, which
vary widely according to the level of the development of each country. Mental health damages are among the consequences of
absence of such infrastructure, which have not been studied comprehensively till to date. In most countries, planning for
natural disasters and earthquakes has been mainly focused on physical and economical impacts; however, lessons learnt from
recent earthquakes in Iran and other countries show that psychological impacts need to be considered more seriously. The first
responder to an emergency is really the affected community, which consequently should be mentally prepared by appropriate
training programs. These should include simple psychosocial interventions developed for people with average level of education
in a way to be easily understandable and practicable. After the Bam earthquake, local community volunteers have been selected
and trained to provide post-disaster mental health services. 相似文献
12.
H. Aghamohammadi M. S. Mesgari A. Mansourian D. Molaei 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2013,10(5):931-939
In Iran, earthquakes cause enormous damage to the people and economy. If there is a proper estimation of human losses in an earthquake disaster, it could be appropriately responded and its impacts and losses will be decreased. Neural networks can be trained to solve problems involving imprecise and highly complex nonlinear data. Based on the different earthquake scenarios and diverse kind of constructions, it is difficult to estimate the number of injured people. With respect to neural network’s capabilities, this paper describes a back propagation neural network method for modeling and estimating the severity and distribution of human loss as a function of building damage in the earthquake disaster. Bam earthquake data in 2003 were used to train this neural network. The final results demonstrate that this neural network model can reveal much more accurate estimation of fatalities and injuries for different earthquakes in Iran and it can provide the necessary information required to develop realistic mitigation policies, especially in rescue operation. 相似文献
13.
Lightning casualties and damages in China from 1997 to 2009 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Lightning-related fatalities, injuries and property damages reported in China from 1997 to 2009 are summarized by using the National Lightning Hazards Database. Therefore, characteristics of the incidents including 5,033 deaths, 4,670 injuries and 61,614 damage reports are analyzed. For the spatial distribution of lightning disasters in China, the eastern costal and southern areas have more frequent lightning disasters than the western areas. Lightning disasters mainly occur in summer months from July to September, while fewer damages occur in winter months from October to March, which correlate significantly with the temporal variability of lightning frequency in China. Lightning-related casualties and damages in China have increased for the period of 1997 to 2007 and then began to decrease since 2008. The national fatalities and injuries per million people per year are 0.31 and 0.28, respectively. Rural people account for 51 and 29% of all lightning fatalities and injuries, which makes residents in agricultural and rural area the major lightning victims. Characteristics of lightning disasters and correlative factors are also studied, including hazard-affected industries and locations. The results show that civil industry has the worst property loss and farmland is the largest category in lightning-caused casualty locations. 相似文献
14.
Flood events, fatalities and damages in India from 1978 to 2006 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
High temporal and spatial variability of rainfall qualifies India to be highly vulnerable to floods. Recurring floods of various magnitudes play havoc with the lives and property of the people, leading to unplanned development and unchecked environmental degradation, thwarting and retarding the overall development of the country. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to analyze the types and trends in terms of flood events, frequency, number of people killed, injured, missing and economic damage both in space and time on the basis of a nationwide database published by India Meteorological Department, Pune, from 1978 to 2006. Analysis of these long-term data has revealed that 2,443 flood events claimed about 44,991 lives with the average of 1,551 lives each year. In terms of population size, these figures translate into a loss of 1.5 human lives per million of the population. A majority (56 %) of flood fatalities were caused during severe flood events. However, the frequency of these events was just 19 % in comparison with heavy rainfall events (65 %). In spatial context, flood-related fatalities are distributed all over the country with highest fatalities in Uttar Pradesh (17 %), Maharashtra (13 %), and Bihar and Gujarat (10 % each). Most fatalities occurred during the summer season monsoon months of August (30 %) followed by July (29 %) and September (20 %). The country suffered a cumulative flood-related economic loss of about 16 billion US$ between 1978 and 2006 and a maximum economic loss of 1.6 billion US$ in the year 2000 alone. The study further suggests that both flood events and fatalities have increased in India over a period of time. 相似文献
15.
This paper examines the effect of a country’s own past disaster experiences and nearby countries’ past experiences on subsequent disaster damage. We use global disaster data from 1990 to 2010, which include disaster-related death tolls for both natural and technological disasters that are further divided into sub-categories. Overall, we find evidence of a reduction effect of past disaster damage on future disaster damage. More detailed analyses show that an adaptation effect seems to be present for certain combinations of disaster types and levels of economic development. The results show that a country’s own experiences reduce future damage for natural disasters but that the marginal effect is larger for lower-income countries. On the other hand, for technological disasters, a robust impact of experiences was found only in higher-income countries. In terms of the disaster experiences of nearby countries, the adaptation effect was found only for natural disasters, and the marginal impact was relatively higher for higher-income countries. 相似文献
16.
17.
城市工程环境地质效应是随着城市化快速进程中的一种自然与人为作用下的新型地质作用,这种作用的持续发展,造成人员和财产的损失,即质变为城市地质灾害。随着上海城市建设进程加快,地下空间的开发所引起的环境地质问题,成为上海城市工程环境地质效应的关键问题;上海地铁M4号线建设重大事故发生后,对地下工程潜在的环境地质作用的研究显得特别重要。本文在大量调查、分析与研究的基础上,结合上海市城市地下空间快速发展面临的一系列工程环境地质灾害,采用自然科学与社会科学相互交叉的方法,剖析了上海市地下工程建设中的主要环境和地质灾害问题;针对城市地下空间引起的工程环境地质灾害具有突发性、潜在性、隐蔽性、社会性的特点．归纳出城市地质灾害的成灾原因,提出防治对策;根据城市发展的实际情况和2004年以后的远景目标,因地制宜地提出了整治城市地下空间工程环境地质效应的基本对策与管理措施．为制定城市地下空间发展远景规划和奋斗目标提供基本思路。这对深化地下工程环境地质问题的认识,推动城市地下工程环境及岩土工程问题的研究有积极意义。 相似文献
18.
Hundreds of natural catastrophes occur worldwide every year—there were 780 loss events per year on average over the last 10 years. Since 1980, these disasters have claimed over two million lives and caused losses worth US$ 3,000 billion. The deadliest disasters were caused by earthquakes: the tsunami following the Sumatra quake (2004) and the Haiti earthquake (2010) claimed more than 220,000 lives each. The Great East Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011 was the costliest natural disaster of all times, with total losses of US$ 210 billion. Hurricane Katrina, in 2005, was the second costliest disaster, with total losses of US$ 140 billion (in 2010 values). To ensure that high-quality natural disaster analyses can be performed, the data have to be collected, checked and managed with a high degree of expertise and professionality. Scientists, governmental and non-governmental organisations and the finance industry make use of global databases that contain losses attributable to natural catastrophes. At present, there are three global and multi-peril loss databases: NatCatSERVICE (Munich Re), Sigma (Swiss Re) and EM-Dat (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). They are supplemented by numerous databases focusing on national or regional issues, certain hazards and specific sectors. This paper outlines the criteria and definitions relating to how global and multi-peril databases are operated, and the efforts being made to ensure consistent and internationally recognised standards of data management. In addition, it presents the concept and methodology underlying the NatCatSERVICE database, and points out the many challenges associated with data acquisition and data management. 相似文献
19.
In this study, seismological aspects and field observation of the 2010 Kuh-Zar earthquake has been investigated. The Kuh-Zar earthquake, of magnitude 5.7 (Mw), occurred in northeastern Iran on August 27, 2010. The area is surrounded by branches of the active faults which are coated by the quaternary alluvium. During the past several decades, this area has been struck by a number of earthquakes. This earthquake with a moderate magnitude caused a higher rate of damage contrasted with previous earthquakes of the same magnitude range in Iran. Fortunately, the source of the Kuh-Zar earthquake was in a sparsely populated area, and therefore, it caused a few loss of life with the highest observed intensity of shaking VII (modified Mercalli intensity) in the Kuh-Zar village. The shock killed 4 people, injured 40, and destroyed more than 12 villages. According to the field observation, the mechanism of this shock is defined as a left-lateral strike slip. We also checked out the properties of strong ground motions in this earthquake using the records availed by Iranian strong motion network. At KUZ station, about 7 km east of the epicenter, the recorded PGA and PGV in both horizontal and vertical components were remarkably large for an event of this size, and visual inspection of the velocity time history reveals a pulse-like shape. Unfortunately no other recording stations were located close enough to the fault to capture a directivity pulse. Finally, according to the strong-motion properties and observed information, ShakeMaps of the earthquake have been generated by the native intensity observations and the recorded strong motions. 相似文献
20.
近年来,受全球气候变暖和城市扩张进程中的人类社会经济活动影响,青海省突发性、局地性地质灾害事件频发。为积极应对地质灾害严峻形势,保障人民生活生产安全、巩固防灾减灾成果、提出科学合理的应对措施。文章以1990—2019年青海省滑坡崩塌泥石流灾害为研究对象,通过数理统计,分析研究了30年间青海省滑坡崩塌泥石流灾害发育特征、时空分布规律及主要引发因素。结果表明:①灾害规模多为小型,灾害类型以滑坡为主。②时间上,多发生在5—10月;空间上,主要发生在地形复杂的青东地区西宁市和海东市。③降雨和开挖边坡是主要引发因素。④近年来,滑坡崩塌泥石流灾害增加趋势明显。研究结果对于今后一段时期青海省地质灾害防范工作具有指导和借鉴意义。 相似文献