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1.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(5):401-405
Economic and social development throughout the world is frequently interrupted by extreme events. The Pacific Rim is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters, thus to social and economic losses. Although disaster events impact both developed and developing countries, in the latter, they can cause a sharp increase in poverty. As disasters pose an important challenge to the development of the Pacific Rim, it is important to assess their global, regional, economic, and social impacts. Most economic assessments of the impacts of disasters have concentrated on direct losses—that is, the financial cost of physical damage. Equally important are indirect and secondary impacts of disasters, including the destruction of communities and their negative impacts on families. The challenges posed by potential disasters in the Pacific Rim countries require rapid action, and also an energetic risk-management strategy. To help reduce those negative impacts, countries need an overall evaluation of their risks, including: (i) risk identification, (ii) risk reduction, and (iii) risk transfer. It is expected that concerted action on risk management will help create an increased awareness of the economy—wide significance of natural disasters and the problems they pose for long—term development. Accordingly, this growing awareness will lead to an increased resilience in the countries of the Pacific Rim. 相似文献
2.
简要介绍了2011年9月15～16日在菲律宾马尼拉召开的"亚太气候(灾害)移民政策响应"地区会议,并着重阐述了当前国际灾害移民领域的重要进展和发展趋向,结合气候变化背景下中国重特大自然灾害移民案例,初步提出了气候变化背景下灾害移民的政策响应。区分渐发性、突发性灾害,综合"自上而下"与"自下而上"的工作方式,建立"政府—企业—社区/个人"协同合作机制,形成区域内—外合作,统筹短期安置与长远发展的灾害移民政策。所提的灾害移民响应政策综合多时空、多方法、多要素,可为气候变化背景下提升中国综合灾害风险防范能力,最大限度地降低灾害损失提供重要参考。 相似文献
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Exploring the characteristics of major natural disasters in China and their impacts during the past decades 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
The exploration of the characteristics of natural disasters (NDs) and their impacts have important implications for guiding disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper discussed the characteristics of the major NDs that occurred in mainland China between 1980 and 2011 based on the number of disasters and fatalities, the affected population, and the resulting economic damages. We further examined the relationships between the level of social/economic development and the disaster losses. At last, we also explored the trend variations in disaster losses and losses expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (losses/GDP) for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1990 to 2011. The results show that over the past three decades, the number of major NDs and the number of affected population appear to exhibit a detectable increasing trend, while the direct economic losses and the deaths show a slight increase trend. The correlations between the number of disasters and the economic losses as well as deaths and between the economic losses and socioeconomic status were not significant (p > 0.05), which indicates that the growth in the number of disasters do not result in a significant increase in the disaster losses. Further investigations demonstrate that as economies develop, there are fewer losses/GDP in China over the past two decades. The per capita accumulative losses and losses/GDP in the western and central regions were higher than that in the eastern parts of China. There are significant regional differences in the trends in disaster losses and losses/GDP in China. Statistics also indicate that more than 70 % provinces in underdeveloped regions show an increasing trend in disaster losses, whereas exceeding 90 % provinces exhibit a decreasing trend in their losses/GDP. These results suggest that the economic development may have played an important role in improving the capacity of disaster prevention and reduction. 相似文献
5.
Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Pakistan 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Pakistan is an earthquake-prone region due to its tectonic setting resulting in high hazard with moderate-to-strong ground motions and vulnerability of structures and infrastructures, leading to the loss of lives and livelihood, property damage and economic losses. Earthquake-related disaster in Pakistan is a regular and serious threat to the community; however, the country lack tools for earthquake risk reduction through early warning (pre-earthquake planning), rapid response (prompt response at locations of high risk) and pre-financing earthquake risk (property insurance against disaster). This paper presents models for physical damageability assessment and socioeconomic loss estimation of structures in Pakistan for earthquake-induced ground motions, derived using state-of-the-art earthquake loss estimation methodologies. The methodologies are being calibrated with the site-specific materials and structures response, whereas the derived models are tested and validated against recent observed earthquakes in the region. The models can be used to develop damage scenario for earthquakes (assess damaged and collapsed structures, casualties and homeless) and estimate economic losses, i.e., cost of repair and reconstruction (for a single earthquake event as well as all possible earthquakes). The models can provide help on policy- and decision-making toward earthquake risk mitigation and disaster risk reduction in Pakistan. 相似文献
6.
Cascading effects are usually one of the common ways through which relatively minor hazards can substantially impact society and economy; the failure of a single industrial sector or cluster of sectors can result in cascading effect on other interlinked sectors. This paper attempts to quantify this cascading effect triggered by disrupted transportation in Hunan province due to the Great 2008 Chinese Ice Storm and proposes operational risk management measures. The advantage of computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (reflecting indirect and induced effects and the nonlinearity of production block) makes it a promising model to simulate cascading effects and the contribution of risk management measures. A detail transportation system is constructed in the production part of standard CGE model. This study finds the following results: The economic loss of Hunan province is amplified by approximately 40 times by cascading effects during the 2 months following the disaster. Large-scale disasters induce more strong cascading effects than minor ones. Post-disaster system resilience effectively stops the spread of cascading effects. When the economic system resilience (e.g., improving the substitution between road transportation and other forms of transportation and efficiency of road transportation) is increased by 10 %, the economic losses induced by cascading effects can be reduced by approximately 60 %. Overall, improving post-disaster system resilience is a highly efficient and cheap measure to reduce the risk from cascading effects. 相似文献
7.
In this paper, we introduce the gray correlation method of risk evaluation in meteorological disaster losses based on historical disaster data in China (mainland) and apply the improved gray relational analysis model (the triangular gray relational model) to the risk evaluation of rainstorm and flood disaster losses. In addition, we divide the risk grade standards of rainstorm and flood disaster losses according to 186 rainstorm and flood disaster data of four optimization indexes (disaster area, suffered population, collapsed houses, and direct economic losses), evaluate the extent of dynamic rainstorm and flood disaster losses in 31 provinces of China (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan exclusive) comprehensively, and draw China’s zoning map of rainstorm and flood disaster from 2004 to 2009. The method provides reasonable and effective references for national disaster preventions which can be used in other researches focused on risk evaluation of meteorological disaster losses. 相似文献
8.
Hybrid loss exceedance curve (HLEC) for disaster risk assessment 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
C. A. Velásquez O. D. Cardona M. G. Mora L. E. Yamin M. L. Carreño A. H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(2):455-479
Taken into account that the natural hazard risk is a contingent liability and, therefore, a sovereign risk for national governments, it is important to assess properly the potential losses to design a suitable risk reduction, retention and transfer strategy. In this article, a disaster risk assessment methodology is proposed based on two approaches: on the one hand, the empiric estimation of losses, using information available from local disaster databases, allowing estimating losses due to small-scale events and, on the other hand, probabilistic evaluations to estimate losses for greater or even catastrophic events, for which information usually is not available due to the lack of historical data. A “hybrid” loss exceedance curve is thus determined, which combines the results of these two approaches and represents the disaster risk in a proper and complete way. This curve merges two components: the corresponding to small and moderate losses, calculated using an inductive and retrospective analysis, and the corresponding to extreme losses, calculated using a deductive and prospective analysis. Applications of this risk assessment technique are given in this article for eleven countries. 相似文献
9.
Kougkoulos Ioannis Merad Myriam Cook Simon J. Andredakis Ioannis 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(2):1959-1980
France experiences catastrophic floods on a yearly basis, with significant societal impacts. In this study, we use multiple sources (insurance datasets, scientific articles, satellite data, and grey literature) to (1) analyze modern flood disasters in the PACA Region; (2) discuss the efficiency of French public policy instruments; (3) perform a SWOT analysis of French flood risk governance (FRG); and (4) suggest improvements to the FRG framework. Despite persistent government efforts, the impacts of flood events in the region have not lessened over time. Identical losses in the same locations are observed after repeated catastrophic events. Relative exposure to flooding has increased in France, apparently due to intense urbanization of flood-prone land. We suggest that the French FRG could benefit from the following improvements: (1) regular updates of risk prevention plans and tools; (2) the adoption of a build back better logic; (3) taking undeclared damages into account in flood risk models; (4) better communication between the actors at the different steps of each cycle (preparation, control, organization, etc.); (5) better communication between those responsible for risk prevention, emergency management, and disaster recovery; (6) an approach that extends the risk analysis outside the borders of the drainage basin; and (7) increased participation in FRG from local populations.
相似文献10.
Naomi W. Lazarus 《GeoJournal》2014,79(5):635-648
The discussion on the social-ecological dimensions of hazards is constantly evolving. This paper explores the trajectory of research relating to hazards and their impact on vulnerable human populations. Interpretations of disaster risk have included estimating losses in terms of human life and property, and analyzing the social mechanisms in place that exacerbate or mitigate a population’s sensitivity to hazard events. In keeping with recent trends in research relating to disaster risk, the paper focuses on the social dimension of vulnerability and the contribution of social structures and relationships in building community resilience. Institutional frameworks and policies in particular determine the quantity and quality of resources and services available to people that contribute to resilience over time. The hazard-risk-location-model (HRLM) is proposed that is based on re-specifying disaster risk in terms of exposure and coping ability to capture the focus on social vulnerability and resilience. The framework of the HRLM incorporates the following components: (1) linkages within existing social capital; (2) spatial variation in social and institutional frameworks; (3) positive and negative feedbacks; and (4) characteristics of the hazard event. The model contributes to the range of place-based assessments designed to address the human-environmental impacts of hazards and disasters. 相似文献
11.
Hsin-Chi Li Tingyeh Wu Hsiao-Ping Wei Hung-Ju Shih Yi-Chiung Chao 《Natural Hazards》2017,86(3):1039-1058
This study examined the Kaoping River basin, Taiwan, an area severely destroyed by Typhoon Morakot in 2009. Dynamically downscaled data were applied to simulate extreme typhoon precipitation events for facilitating future preparation efforts (2075–2099) under climate change conditions. Models were used to simulate possible impacts in upstream and downstream areas for basinwide disaster loss assessment purposes. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability and FLO-2D models were applied to simulate slope-land disaster impacts and sediment volume in the upstream area. The sediment delivery ratio was used to calculate the valid sediment amount delivered downstream and the riverbed uplift altitude. SOBEK was used to build a flood impact model for the Kaoping River basin, and the model was used to simulate potential flooding caused by future extreme typhoon events. The Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System established by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction was used to evaluate the potential loss associated with extreme events. The property loss calculation included 32 land-use categories, including agriculture, forestry, fishery, and animal husbandry losses; industrial and commercial service losses; public building losses; and traffic and hydraulic facility losses. One of the Kaoping River basin townships, Daliao District, had the highest flood depth increase ratio (12.6%), and the losses were 1.5 times the original situation. This was much worse than were the losses suffered during Typhoon Morakot. These results also show that sediment delivered from the upstream areas had a significant influence on the downstream areas. This is a critical issue for future flood mitigation under climate change conditions. 相似文献
12.
This research is based on a questionnaire of 556 peasant households in the Jianghan Plain. By analyzing the rate of participation of peasant households using a participation model, this study intends to explain the peasant household’s willingness to participate in disaster reduction and factors that influence willingness to participate. The investigation of participation rate revealed that households are generally concerned about engineering measures used for disaster reduction, but the willingness to participate is not strong; the peasant household’s attention to recommendations for non-engineering disaster reduction is high, but the willingness to participate is very low. The quantitative analysis of the participation model of disaster reduction showed that the level of peasant household’s willingness to participate in engineering and non-engineering disaster reduction was dependent upon their attitude toward a variety of measures of risk and the input costs of disaster reduction. The cognition of a disaster’s impact, fertility level of farmland, condition of irrigation canals, and amount of arable land have a remarkable influence on the willingness to participate in engineering and non-engineering disaster reduction. Age of household and joining cooperating organizations do not influence the willingness to participate in engineering and non-engineering disaster reduction. On the other hand, the education level, professional skills, and family size influence on one dimension of disaster reduction, but do not influence another dimension of disaster reduction. 相似文献
13.
Bhuiyan Tariqur Rahman Er Ah Choy Muhamad Nurfashareena Pereira Joy Jacqueline 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(2):1509-1538
Small-scale flash flood events are climate-related disasters which can put multiple aspects of the system at risk. The consequences of flash floods in densely populated cities are increasingly becoming problematic around the globe. However, they are largely ignored in disaster impact assessment studies, especially in assessing socioeconomic loss and damage, which can provide a significant insight for disaster risk reduction measures. Using a structured questionnaire survey, this study applied a statistical approach and developed a structural equation model (SEM) for assessing several socioeconomic dimensions including physical impacts, mobility disruption, lifeline facilities, health and income-related impacts. The study reveals that respondents have experienced a stronger impact on direct tangible elements such as household contents and buildings as well as direct intangible elements with β coefficients 0.703, 0.576 and 0.635, respectively, at p?<?0:001 level. The direct intangible impacts affect mobility disruption with β coefficients equal to 0.701 at p?<?0:001 level which then further cause adversity to income-generating activities with β 0.316 at significant p?<?0:001 as well. The overall model fit indices show highly acceptable scores of SRMR 0.068, RMSEA 0.055 and PClose 0.092. Thus, the SEM has successfully incorporated the socioeconomic dimensions of disaster impact and explained the impact phenomena reliably. This modeling approach will allow inclusion of various variables from different disciplines to assess hazard impact, vulnerability and resilience.
相似文献14.
Culture provides an important perspective to understand society. It is one of the key factors that impact how people behave themselves, interact with one another, view the world; what they believe and value. Therefore, a good understanding of public disaster awareness and disaster coping is impossible without taking their culture context into consideration. Since the 1960s, cultural dimension in disaster issues and/or disaster reduction practices has been attracting increasingly attention; many empirical or theoretical explorations have been reported. This review aims to give an overview of research progresses on how culture impacts public awareness and coping of disasters, and analyze the corresponding implications for disaster research and disaster reduction practice. This review summarizes that: ①There is unanimous consensus on public awareness and coping of disaster, which are affected by their culture context. While the knowledge about the ways and degree of impact is still limited, further research is warranted. In addition, more systematic and in-depth studies conducted from cross-cultural perspectives are needed to design to further explore the origins of variance in public disaster awareness and coping, and to what extent from cultural differences. ②Research on public awareness of disaster, emergency response and recovery indicated that culture might have double-side impacts on disaster management—sometimes cultural factors such as value, norm, custom and belief might lead to people more vulnerable than the others, even could be the root causes, but they could also be the source of people’s resilience to disaster in some cases. How to identify those positive and negative impacts, then develop cultural-oriented disaster management policy is a challenge issue, which need special attention. ③There is an increasing acknowledgement that local knowledge and disaster subculture could play an important role in public disaster coping, while the lacking of the awareness of the value of local knowledge, the change of lifestyle, and the impact from external culture pose a threat to the inheritance of some local, traditional disaster coping strategies. So exploring how to conserve, protect, identify, document them, then combine them with modern science and technology should and will be the focus of relevant studies. On the bases of these summarizations, in terms of cultural dimension of natural disaster research in China, systematic and in-depth studies are needed to explore how Chinese culture affects public disaster awareness and coping, what cultural resources can be used in disaster (risk) reduction and for building and enhancing disaster resilience, and how to use them. 相似文献
15.
Migration is a global strategy for promoting economic growth and sustainable urbanization, specifically in developing countries. It is critical for governments to understand the determinants of migration decision for rural households so that proper migration measures can be taken. Different from previous studies that mainly focus on migration determinants without considering migration patterns, this paper divides migration patterns into three types—no migration, labor migration, and family migration, and examines the determinants for “no migration–migration” and “labor migration–family migration,” respectively. The binary logistic model is adopted to analyze the impacts of various migration factors in Chongqing city. Results show that: (1) per capita non-agricultural income plays the most significant positive role in driving “no migration–migration.” This is followed by the number of household labor force, whereas road accessibility is the key factor for inhibiting migration. (2) The key contributory factor for “labor migration–family migration” is per capita non-agricultural income. This is followed by the residential distance from towns, whereas the number of household labor force and the average age of labor force are restraining factors. The research results can effectively provide scientific reference for local governments to advance the transfer of the surplus rural labor force to promote sustainable urbanization.
相似文献16.
Informal settlements are an important source of affordable housing and economic activity in developing cities. Research shows that informal settlements are at high risk from natural hazards and the effects of global climate change. Conditions within such settlements are diverse, however, and it is important that we understand the variation in risk across households. In this paper, we study the uneven terrain of risk to localized hazards in informal settlements in Kolkata, India. Our research question is, which factors predict household exposure to monsoon rain hazards? We surveyed 414 households living in low-lying informal settlements on the city’s periphery. Using a variety of predictors, we estimate binary logistic models for two outcome variables tied to monsoon rain: home flooding and home leaking. We find that household exposure varies significantly across our study population and follows predictable patterns based on socio-economic and infrastructure variables. The home flooding model results show that households with higher incomes are less likely to flood, but in situ births increase exposure. Households living in structures made of more permanent materials are less likely to flood, as are households living near infrastructure. The home leaking model shows that households with relative financial stability are less likely to leak, as are those that have been living in the settlement for longer periods of time and whose houses are made of better quality materials. These findings indicate that extensive risk in informal settlements is unevenly experienced and that policies intended to reduce disaster and climate risk should focus on the lowest-income households, the provision of infrastructure, and security of tenure. 相似文献
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Environmental disasters in social context: toward a preventive and precautionary approach 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Kenneth Hewitt 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(1):3-14
The paper examines relations between natural hazards and social conditions in disaster, and problems of their integration in disaster management. This must be done against a background of ever-increasing numbers of disasters. The initiating roles and impacts of environmental hazards are acknowledged. However, expanding losses are not explained by increased geophysical risks. To the extent that scientific knowledge or engineering and planning skills are involved, the problems seem more one of (in)effective deployment than major deficiencies. Social analyses suggest the scope of today’s disasters follows primarily from greater concentrations of vulnerable people, exposed in dangerous situations, and lacking adequate protections. Firstly, the question of disaster causality is revisited as a problem of damage diagnostics. A basis is developed from the findings of formal disaster inquiries. Despite their limitations, well-conducted inquiries offer unusually comprehensive anatomies of the social and physical conditions of disasters. They demonstrate and trace out the interplay of environmental, societal, technological, and institutional components of emergencies. In the examples described, environmental hazards are investigated in great detail. Nevertheless, societal preconditions are shown to be more critical. Inadequacies in emergency preparedness, performance, and post-disaster response are highlighted, and for those most at risk. The conclusions present major challenges for the agent-specific view of disasters, and for disaster management preoccupied with natural forces, uncertainty, and emergency responses. Rather, a view of disaster causality emerges emphasizing avoidable failures of preventive, protective, and intervention measures. Evidence is cited to show this is increasingly relevant in so-called natural disasters lacking such inquiries. The discussion considers the relevance of a preventive and precautionary approach in this context. The histories of accident, disease, fire, and crime prevention support arguments for greater attention to context-specific environmental and societal aspects of risk. Aligning disaster management more closely with preventive priorities depends upon a much greater focus on people, places, and livelihoods most at risk, reversing the social processes that put them at risk. It requires listening to their voices and concerns, recognizing and bolstering their resilience. Much more can and should be done to disseminate the protections, from building regulations to insurance, that actually do save so many others in the disasters that happen. As such, the case for greater attention to issues of governance and social justice is strengthened. 相似文献
18.
Mallick Javed Salam Roquia Amin Ruhul Islam Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam Aznarul Siddik Md. Nur Alam Alam G. M. Monirul 《Natural Hazards》2022,112(2):1633-1656
Natural Hazards - Understanding household disaster risk perception is crucial to formulate and apply disaster risk reduction strategies. Using survey data from 300 households from three highly... 相似文献
19.
从区域安全建设到风险管理体系的形成--从第一届世界风险大会看灾害与风险研究的现状与发展趋向 总被引：20，自引：3，他引：17
综述了第一届世界风险大会关于灾害与风险科学研究的进展,分析了其发展趋势,并对我国加强这一领域的研究提出了对策。灾害与风险研究的目标正在趋向一致,都集中在为可持续发展模式提供科学依据;基于灾害研究的区域安全建设正在向基于风险研究的区域风险管理体系转变,由此认为可持续发展模式就是接受一定风险水平条件下的区域发展模式,一定风险水平依赖于由区域经济水平与社会文化体系相关联的区域安全建设水平;加强我国灾害与风险科学研究的学科建设、国家实验室建设、重大项目的组织与实施已势在必行;重点开展灾害脆弱性评价体系与评价模型、风险评价体系与风险评价模型、典型区域灾害与风险管理范式、灾害与风险应急控制预案（情景分析）、灾害与风险区划等方面的研究。为此把灾害科学和风险科学,与全球变化科学和可持续发展科学统一纳入到地球系统科学体系之中,以加强与完善我国在这些领域的综合多学科交叉研究能力。 相似文献
20.
One of the biggest impacts of a disaster is the effect it can have on community and regional housing and the ability of people, communities and regions to recover from the damages. Policy decisions involving investments in loss reduction measures and response and recovery are best informed by the integration of scientific and socioeconomic information. Natural scientists develop hazard scenarios for stakeholders and emergency officials to assess the impacts of a particular disaster outcome. Social scientists have found that housing losses and recovery affect individuals in lower socioeconomic status disproportionately. By combining socioeconomic status data from the US Census with an earthquake scenario for southern California, an event-driven conditional distribution of earthquake risk is used to prioritize investment decisions for earthquake hazard mitigation. Simulation of the damages in the scenario showed a statistically significant risk concentration in census tracts with large numbers of residents of lower socioeconomic status living in multi-family housing and mobile homes. An application of the approach is demonstrated in Los Angeles County as a decision criterion in a building retrofit program. The earthquake scenario was used to evaluate the economic benefits of a program for voluntary mitigation and a combined program of voluntary mitigation and regulated mitigation based on socioeconomic status (mandate requiring mitigation in census tracts meeting specific damage and income thresholds). Although the analysis is a hypothetical scenario based on a simulation of a great earthquake, the results and potential outcomes show that a regulated program with a socioeconomic decision criterion would have significant benefits to vulnerable populations. 相似文献