共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been successfully applied to data assimilation in steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) process, but applications of localization for the EnKF in the SAGD process have not been studied. Distance-based localization has been reported to be very efficient for assimilation of large amounts of independent data with a small ensemble in water flooding process, but it is not applicable to the SAGD process, since in the SAGD process, oil is produced mainly from the transition zone steam chamber to cold oil instead of the regions around the producer. As the oil production rate is mainly affected by the temperature distribution in the transition zone, temperature-based localization was proposed for automatic history matching of the SAGD process. The regions of the localization function were determined through sensitivity analysis by using a large ensemble with 1000 members. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the regions of cross-correlations between oil production and state variables are much wider than the correlations between production data and model variables. To choose localization regions that are large enough to include the true regions of non-zero cross-covariance, the localization function is defined based on the regions of non-zero covariances of production data to state variables. The non-zero covariances between production data and state variables are distributed in accordance with the steam chamber. This makes the definition of a universal localization function for different state variables easier. Based on the cross-correlation analysis, the temperature range in which oil production is contributed is determined, and beyond or below this range, the localization function reduces from one, and at the critical temperature or steam temperature, the localization function reduces to zero. The temperature-based localization function was obtained through modifying the distance-based localization function. Localization is applied to covariance of data with permeability, saturation, and temperature, as well as the covariance of data with data. A small ensemble (10 ensemble members) was employed in several case studies. Without localization, the variability in the ensemble collapsed very quickly and lost the ability to assimilate later data. The mean variance of model variables dropped dramatically by 95 %, and there was almost no variability in ensemble forecasts, while the prediction was far from the reference with data mismatch keeping up at a high level. At least 50 ensemble members are needed to keep the qualities of matches and forecasts, which significantly increases the computation time. The EnKF with temperature-based localization is able to avoid the collapse of ensemble variability with a small ensemble (10 members), which saves the computation time and gives better history match and prediction results. 相似文献
2.
集合卡尔曼滤波(Ensemble Kalman Filter,EnKF)作为一种有效的数据同化方法,在众多数值实验中体现优势的同时,也暴露了它使用小集合估计协方差情况下精度较低的缺陷。为了降低取样噪声对协方差估计的干扰并提高滤波精度,应用局域化函数对小集合估计的协方差进行修正,即在协方差矩阵中以舒尔积的形式增加空间距离权重以限制远距离相关。在一个二维理想孔隙承压含水层模型中的运行结果表明,局域化对集合卡尔曼滤波估计地下水参数的修正十分有效,局域化可以很好地过滤小集合估计中噪声的影响,节省计算量的同时又可以防止滤波发散。相关长度较小的水文地质参数(如对数渗透系数)更容易受到噪声的干扰,更有必要进行局域化修正。 相似文献
3.
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), an efficient data assimilation method showing advantages in many numerical experiments, is deficient when used in approximating covariance from an ensemble of small size. Implicit localization is used to add distance-related weight to covariance and filter spurious correlations which weaken the EnKF??s capability to estimate uncertainty correctly. The effect of this kind of localization is studied in two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) synthetic cases. It is found that EnKF with localization can capture reliably both the mean and variance of the hydraulic conductivity field with higher efficiency; it can also greatly stabilize the assimilation process as a small-size ensemble is used. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to explore the effect of localization function format and filter lengths. It is suggested that too long or too short filter lengths will prevent implicit localization from modifying the covariance appropriately. Steep localization functions will greatly disturb local dynamics like the 0-1 function even if the function is continuous; four relatively gentle localization functions succeed in avoiding obvious disturbance to the system and improve estimation. As the degree of localization of the L function increases, the parameter sensitivity becomes weak, making parameter selection easier, but more information may be lost in the assimilation process. 相似文献
4.
Using a small ensemble size in the ensemble Kalman filter methodology is efficient for updating numerical reservoir models
but can result in poor updates following spurious correlations between observations and model variables. The most common approach
for reducing the effect of spurious correlations on model updates is multiplication of the estimated covariance by a tapering
function that eliminates all correlations beyond a prespecified distance. Distance-dependent tapering is not always appropriate,
however. In this paper, we describe efficient methods for discriminating between the real and the spurious correlations in
the Kalman gain matrix by using the bootstrap method to assess the confidence level of each element from the Kalman gain matrix.
The new method is tested on a small linear problem, and on a water flooding reservoir history matching problem. For the water
flooding example, a small ensemble size of 30 was used to compute the Kalman gain in both the screened EnKF and standard EnKF
methods. The new method resulted in significantly smaller root mean squared errors of the estimated model parameters and greater
variability in the final updated ensemble. 相似文献
5.
Mohammadali Tarrahi Siavash Hakim Elahi Behnam Jafarpour 《Computational Geosciences》2016,20(5):929-952
Ensemble methods present a practical framework for parameter estimation, performance prediction, and uncertainty quantification in subsurface flow and transport modeling. In particular, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has received significant attention for its promising performance in calibrating heterogeneous subsurface flow models. Since an ensemble of model realizations is used to compute the statistical moments needed to perform the EnKF updates, large ensemble sizes are needed to provide accurate updates and uncertainty assessment. However, for realistic problems that involve large-scale models with computationally demanding flow simulation runs, the EnKF implementation is limited to small-sized ensembles. As a result, spurious numerical correlations can develop and lead to inaccurate EnKF updates, which tend to underestimate or even eliminate the ensemble spread. Ad hoc practical remedies, such as localization, local analysis, and covariance inflation schemes, have been developed and applied to reduce the effect of sampling errors due to small ensemble sizes. In this paper, a fast linear approximate forecast method is proposed as an alternative approach to enable the use of large ensemble sizes in operational settings to obtain more improved sample statistics and EnKF updates. The proposed method first clusters a large number of initial geologic model realizations into a small number of groups. A representative member from each group is used to run a full forward flow simulation. The flow predictions for the remaining realizations in each group are approximated by a linearization around the full simulation results of the representative model (centroid) of the respective cluster. The linearization can be performed using either adjoint-based or ensemble-based gradients. Results from several numerical experiments with two-phase and three-phase flow systems in this paper suggest that the proposed method can be applied to improve the EnKF performance in large-scale problems where the number of full simulation is constrained. 相似文献
6.
Ensemble-based data assimilation methods have recently become popular for solving reservoir history matching problems, but because of the practical limitation on ensemble size, using localization is necessary to reduce the effect of sampling error and to increase the degrees of freedom for incorporating large amounts of data. Local analysis in the ensemble Kalman filter has been used extensively for very large models in numerical weather prediction. It scales well with the model size and the number of data and is easily parallelized. In the petroleum literature, however, iterative ensemble smoothers with localization of the Kalman gain matrix have become the state-of-the-art approach for ensemble-based history matching. By forming the Kalman gain matrix row-by-row, the analysis step can also be parallelized. Localization regularizes updates to model parameters and state variables using information on the distance between the these variables and the observations. The truncation of small singular values in truncated singular value decomposition (TSVD) at the analysis step provides another type of regularization by projecting updates to dominant directions spanned by the simulated data ensemble. Typically, the combined use of localization and TSVD is necessary for problems with large amounts of data. In this paper, we compare the performance of Kalman gain localization to two forms of local analysis for parameter estimation problems with nonlocal data. The effect of TSVD with different localization methods and with the use of iteration is also analyzed. With several examples, we show that good results can be obtained for all localization methods if the localization range is chosen appropriately, but the optimal localization range differs for the various methods. In general, for local analysis with observation taper, the optimal range is somewhat shorter than the optimal range for other localization methods. Although all methods gave equivalent results when used in an iterative ensemble smoother, the local analysis methods generally converged more quickly than Kalman gain localization when the amount of data is large compared to ensemble size. 相似文献
7.
Combining sensitivities and prior information for covariance localization in the ensemble Kalman filter for petroleum reservoir applications 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Sampling errors can severely degrade the reliability of estimates of conditional means and uncertainty quantification obtained
by the application of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for data assimilation. A standard recommendation for reducing the
spurious correlations and loss of variance due to sampling errors is to use covariance localization. In distance-based localization,
the prior (forecast) covariance matrix at each data assimilation step is replaced with the Schur product of a correlation
matrix with compact support and the forecast covariance matrix. The most important decision to be made in this localization
procedure is the choice of the critical length(s) used to generate this correlation matrix. Here, we give a simple argument
that the appropriate choice of critical length(s) should be based both on the underlying principal correlation length(s) of
the geological model and the range of the sensitivity matrices. Based on this result, we implement a procedure for covariance
localization and demonstrate with a set of distinctive reservoir history-matching examples that this procedure yields improved
results over the standard EnKF implementation and over covariance localization with other choices of critical length. 相似文献
8.
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been shown repeatedly to be an effective method for data assimilation in large-scale
problems, including those in petroleum engineering. Data assimilation for multiphase flow in porous media is particularly
difficult, however, because the relationships between model variables (e.g., permeability and porosity) and observations (e.g.,
water cut and gas–oil ratio) are highly nonlinear. Because of the linear approximation in the update step and the use of a
limited number of realizations in an ensemble, the EnKF has a tendency to systematically underestimate the variance of the
model variables. Various approaches have been suggested to reduce the magnitude of this problem, including the application
of ensemble filter methods that do not require perturbations to the observed data. On the other hand, iterative least-squares
data assimilation methods with perturbations of the observations have been shown to be fairly robust to nonlinearity in the
data relationship. In this paper, we present EnKF with perturbed observations as a square root filter in an enlarged state
space. By imposing second-order-exact sampling of the observation errors and independence constraints to eliminate the cross-covariance
with predicted observation perturbations, we show that it is possible in linear problems to obtain results from EnKF with
observation perturbations that are equivalent to ensemble square-root filter results. Results from a standard EnKF, EnKF with
second-order-exact sampling of measurement errors that satisfy independence constraints (EnKF (SIC)), and an ensemble square-root
filter (ETKF) are compared on various test problems with varying degrees of nonlinearity and dimensions. The first test problem
is a simple one-variable quadratic model in which the nonlinearity of the observation operator is varied over a wide range
by adjusting the magnitude of the coefficient of the quadratic term. The second problem has increased observation and model
dimensions to test the EnKF (SIC) algorithm. The third test problem is a two-dimensional, two-phase reservoir flow problem
in which permeability and porosity of every grid cell (5,000 model parameters) are unknown. The EnKF (SIC) and the mean-preserving
ETKF (SRF) give similar results when applied to linear problems, and both are better than the standard EnKF. Although the
ensemble methods are expected to handle the forecast step well in nonlinear problems, the estimates of the mean and the variance
from the analysis step for all variants of ensemble filters are also surprisingly good, with little difference between ensemble
methods when applied to nonlinear problems. 相似文献
9.
In this work, we present an efficient matrix-free ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithm for the assimilation of large data
sets. The EnKF has increasingly become an essential tool for data assimilation of numerical models. It is an attractive assimilation
method because it can evolve the model covariance matrix for a non-linear model, through the use of an ensemble of model states,
and it is easy to implement for any numerical model. Nevertheless, the computational cost of the EnKF can increase significantly
for cases involving the assimilation of large data sets. As more data become available for assimilation, a potential bottleneck
in most EnKF algorithms involves the operation of the Kalman gain matrix. To reduce the complexity and cost of assimilating
large data sets, a matrix-free EnKF algorithm is proposed. The algorithm uses an efficient matrix-free linear solver, based
on the Sherman–Morrison formulas, to solve the implicit linear system within the Kalman gain matrix and compute the analysis.
Numerical experiments with a two-dimensional shallow water model on the sphere are presented, where results show the matrix-free
implementation outperforming an singular value decomposition-based implementation in computational time. 相似文献
10.
集合卡曼滤波由于易于使用而被广泛地应用到陆面数据同化研究中,它是建立在模型为线性、误差为正态分布的假设上,而实际土壤湿度方程是高度非线性的,并且当土壤过干或过湿时会发生样本偏斜.为了全面评估它在同化表层土壤湿度观测来反演土壤湿度廓线的性能,特引入不需要上述假设的采样重要性重采样粒子滤波,比较非线性和偏斜性对同化算法的影响.结果显示:不管是小样本还是大样本,集合卡曼滤波都能快速、准确地逼近样本均值,而粒子滤波只有在大样本时才能缓慢地趋近;此外,集合卡曼滤波的粒子边缘概率密度及其偏度和峰度与粒子滤波完全不同,前者粒子虽不完全满足正态分布,但始终为单峰状态,而后者粒子随同化推进经历了单峰到双峰再到单峰的变化. 相似文献
11.
12.
The performance of the Ensemble Kalman Filter method (EnKF) depends on the sample size compared to the dimension of the parameters
space. In real applications insufficient sampling may result in spurious correlations which reduce the accuracy of the filter
with a strong underestimation of the uncertainty. Covariance localization and inflation are common solutions to these problems.
The Ensemble Square Root Filters (ESRF) is also better to estimate uncertainty with respect to the EnKF. In this work we propose
a method that limits the consequences of sampling errors by means of a convenient generation of the initial ensemble. This
regeneration is based on a Stationary Orthogonal-Base Representation (SOBR) obtained via a singular value decomposition of
a stationary covariance matrix estimated from the ensemble. The technique is tested on a 2D single phase reservoir and compared
with the other common techniques. The evaluation is based on a reference solution obtained with a very large ensemble (one
million members) which remove the spurious correlations. The example gives evidence that the SOBR technique is a valid alternative
to reduce the effect of sampling error. In addition, when the SOBR method is applied in combination with the ESRF and inflation,
it gives the best performance in terms of uncertainty estimation and oil production forecast. 相似文献
13.
Wiktoria Lawniczak Remus Hanea Arnold Heemink Dennis McLaughlin 《Computational Geosciences》2009,13(2):245-254
Reservoir management requires periodic updates of the simulation models using the production data available over time. Traditionally,
validation of reservoir models with production data is done using a history matching process. Uncertainties in the data, as
well as in the model, lead to a nonunique history matching inverse problem. It has been shown that the ensemble Kalman filter
(EnKF) is an adequate method for predicting the dynamics of the reservoir. The EnKF is a sequential Monte-Carlo approach that
uses an ensemble of reservoir models. For realistic, large-scale applications, the ensemble size needs to be kept small due
to computational inefficiency. Consequently, the error space is not well covered (poor cross-correlation matrix approximations)
and the updated parameter field becomes scattered and loses important geological features (for example, the contact between
high- and low-permeability values). The prior geological knowledge present in the initial time is not found anymore in the
final updated parameter. We propose a new approach to overcome some of the EnKF limitations. This paper shows the specifications
and results of the ensemble multiscale filter (EnMSF) for automatic history matching. EnMSF replaces, at each update time,
the prior sample covariance with a multiscale tree. The global dependence is preserved via the parent–child relation in the
tree (nodes at the adjacent scales). After constructing the tree, the Kalman update is performed. The properties of the EnMSF
are presented here with a 2D, two-phase (oil and water) small twin experiment, and the results are compared to the EnKF. The
advantages of using EnMSF are localization in space and scale, adaptability to prior information, and efficiency in case many
measurements are available. These advantages make the EnMSF a practical tool for many data assimilation problems. 相似文献
14.
为研究观测资料稀少情况下土壤质地及有机质对土壤水分同化的影响,发展了集合卡尔曼平滑(Ensemble Kalman Smooth, EnKS)的土壤水分同化方案。利用黑河上游阿柔冻融观测站2008年6月1日至10月29日的观测数据,使用EnKS算法将表层土壤水分观测数据同化到简单生物圈模型(Simple Biosphere Model 2, SiB2)中,分析不同方案对土壤水分估计的影响,并与集合卡尔曼滤波算法(EnKF)的结果进行比较。研究结果表明,土壤质地和有机质对表层土壤水分模拟结果影响最大而对深层的影响相对较小;利用EnKF和EnKS算法同化表层土壤水分观测数据,均能够显著提高表层和根区土壤水分估计的精度,EnKS算法的精度略高于EnKF且所受土壤质地和有机质的影响小于EnKF;当观测数据稀少时,EnKS算法仍然可以得到较高精度的土壤水分估计。 相似文献
15.
In this paper we present an extension of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) specifically designed for multimodal systems. EnKF
data assimilation scheme is less accurate when it is used to approximate systems with multimodal distribution such as reservoir
facies models. The algorithm is based on the assumption that both prior and posterior distribution can be approximated by
Gaussian mixture and it is validated by the introduction of the concept of finite ensemble representation. The effectiveness
of the approach is shown with two applications. The first example is based on Lorenz model. In the second example, the proposed
methodology combined with a localization technique is used to update a 2D reservoir facies models. Both applications give
evidence of an improved performance of the proposed method respect to the EnKF. 相似文献
16.
Application of the EnKF and Localization to Automatic History Matching of Facies Distribution and Production Data 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
The performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for continuous updating of facies location and boundaries in a reservoir model based on production and facies data for a 3D synthetic problem is presented. The occurrence of the different facies types is treated as a random process and the initial distribution was obtained by truncating a bi-Gaussian random field. Because facies data are highly non-Gaussian, re-parameterization was necessary in order to use the EnKF algorithm for data assimilation; two Gaussian random fields are updated in lieu of the static facies parameters. The problem of history matching applied to facies is difficult due to (1) constraints to facies observations at wells are occasionally violated when productions data are assimilated; (2) excessive reduction of variance seems to be a bigger problem with facies than with Gaussian random permeability and porosity fields; and (3) the relationship between facies variables and data is so highly non-linear that the final facies field does not always honor early production data well. Consequently three issues are investigated in this work. Is it possible to iteratively enforce facies constraints when updates due to production data have caused them to be violated? Can localization of adjustments be used for facies to prevent collapse of the variance during the data-assimilation period? Is a forecast from the final state better than a forecast from time zero using the final parameter fields?To investigate these issues, a 3D reservoir simulation model is coupled with the EnKF technique for data assimilation. One approach to enforcing the facies constraint is continuous iteration on all available data, which may lead to inconsistent model states, incorrect weighting of the production data and incorrect adjustment of the state vector. A sequential EnKF where the dynamic and static data are assimilated sequentially is presented and this approach seems to have solved the highlighted problems above. When the ensemble size is small compared to the number of independent data, the localized adjustment of the state vector is a very important technique that may be used to mitigate loss of rank in the ensemble. Implementing a distance-based localization of the facies adjustment appears to mitigate the problem of variance deficiency in the ensembles by ensuring that sufficient variability in the ensemble is maintained throughout the data assimilation period. Finally, when data are assimilated without localization, the prediction results appear to be independent of the starting point. When localization is applied, it is better to predict from the start using the final parameter field rather than continue from the final state. 相似文献
17.
This paper proposes an augmented Lagrangian method for production optimization in which the cost function to be maximized
is defined as an augmented Lagrangian function consisting of the net present value (NPV) and all the equality and inequality
constraints except the bound constraints. The bound constraints are dealt with using a trust-region gradient projection method.
The paper also presents a way to eliminate the need to convert the inequality constraints to equality constraints with slack
variables in the augmented Lagrangian function, which greatly reduces the size of the optimization problem when the number
of inequality constraints is large. The proposed method is tested in the context of closed-loop reservoir management benchmark
problem based on the Brugge reservoir setup by TNO. In the test, we used the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with covariance
localization for data assimilation. Production optimization is done on the updated ensemble mean model from EnKF. The production
optimization resulted in a substantial increase in the NPV for the expected reservoir life compared to the base case with
reactive control. 相似文献
18.
Reza Tavakoli Gergina Pencheva Mary F. Wheeler Benjamin Ganis 《Computational Geosciences》2013,17(1):83-97
We present a parallel framework for history matching and uncertainty characterization based on the Kalman filter update equation for the application of reservoir simulation. The main advantages of ensemble-based data assimilation methods are that they can handle large-scale numerical models with a high degree of nonlinearity and large amount of data, making them perfectly suited for coupling with a reservoir simulator. However, the sequential implementation is computationally expensive as the methods require relatively high number of reservoir simulation runs. Therefore, the main focus of this work is to develop a parallel data assimilation framework with minimum changes into the reservoir simulator source code. In this framework, multiple concurrent realizations are computed on several partitions of a parallel machine. These realizations are further subdivided among different processors, and communication is performed at data assimilation times. Although this parallel framework is general and can be used for different ensemble techniques, we discuss the methodology and compare results of two algorithms, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the ensemble smoother (ES). Computational results show that the absolute runtime is greatly reduced using a parallel implementation versus a serial one. In particular, a parallel efficiency of about 35 % is obtained for the EnKF, and an efficiency of more than 50 % is obtained for the ES. 相似文献
19.
Ensemble size is critical to the efficiency and performance of the ensemble Kalman filter, but when the ensemble size is small,
the Kalman gain generally cannot be well estimated. To reduce the negative effect of spurious correlations, a regularization
process applied on either the covariance or the Kalman gain seems to be necessary. In this paper, we evaluate and compare
the estimation errors when two regularization methods including the distance-dependent localization and the bootstrap-based
screening are applied on the covariance and on the Kalman gain. The investigations were carried out through two examples:
1D linear problem without dynamics but for which the true Kalman gain can be computed and a 2D highly nonlinear reservoir
fluid flow problem. The investigation resulted in three primary conclusions. First, if localizations of two covariance matrices
are not consistent, the estimate of the Kalman gain will generally be poor at the observation location. The consistency condition
can be difficult to apply for nonlocal observations. Second, the estimate of the Kalman gain that results from covariance
regularization is generally subject to greater errors than the estimate of the Kalman gain that results from Kalman gain regularization.
Third, in terms of removing spurious correlations in the estimation of spatially correlated variables, the performance of
screening Kalman gain is comparable as the performance of localization methods (applied on either covariance or Kalman gain),
but screening Kalman gain outperforms the localization methods in terms of generality for application, as the screening method
can be used for estimating both spatially correlated and uncorrelated variables, and moreover, no assumption about the prior
covariance is required for the screening method. 相似文献
20.
重质非水相有机污染物(DNAPL)泄漏到地下后,其运移与分布特征受渗透率非均质性影响显著。为刻画DNAPL污染源区结构特征,需进行参数估计以描述水文地质参数的非均质性。本研究构建了基于集合卡尔曼滤波方法(EnKF)与多相流运移模型的同化方案,通过融合DNAPL饱和度观测数据推估非均质介质渗透率空间分布。通过二维砂箱实际与理想算例,验证了同化方法的推估效果,并探讨了不同因素对同化的影响。研究结果表明:基于EnKF方法同化饱和度观测资料可有效地推估非均质渗透率场;参数推估精度随观测时空密度的增大而提高;观测点位置分布对同化效果有所影响,布置在污染集中区域的观测数据对于参数估计具有较高的数据价值。 相似文献