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1.
中国粮食生产的综合影响因素分析 总被引：18，自引：1，他引：17
采用模型模拟的方式, 根据中国社会发展规划, 将未来社会经济发展情景与区域气候模型、水资源模型和作物模型相连接, 综合评估和分析未来中国的粮食生产状况, 以期为宏观决策提供科学参考。结果表明, ①气候变化将影响未来三大作物单产, 如果不考虑 CO2 肥效作用, 未来雨养作物单产将受到更大冲击; 当灌溉条件保障后, 水稻受到冲击更大, 单产降低最多, 尤其是 A2 情景。如果考虑 CO2 肥效作用, 未来玉米平均单产变化不大, 小麦单产明显增加, 尤其是雨养小麦, 水稻单产也有所增加。②未来气候变化、水资源、社会经济发展将影响中国三大作物的需水量和农业供水量, 导致水稻、灌溉玉米和小麦的播种面积下降, 而雨养小麦和玉米的播种面积上升。③未来气候变化、 CO2 肥效、水资源和土地利用变化对粮食生产的影响较为复杂, 依情景和时段的不同而不同。农业可用水资源对粮食总产的影响最不利, 致使三大作物粮食总产量明显降低, 成为未来粮食生产的主要限制因素, 尤其是水稻生产; 土地利用对总产的负面影响最小; 气候变化和 CO2 的相互作用可使总量少许增加。未来各情景下水稻受到冲击最大, 而小麦和玉米则表现为不同程度的增产。 相似文献
2.
气候变化对华北地区水资源供需影响的模拟预测 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文选择海河南系为华北地区的代表性区域,建立了该区水资源系统动力学模型(SD),对供需平衡在不同气候情景下的发展变化趋势进行了模拟预测。预测结果表明:气候变化对研究区水资源系统的正常运行将产生一定影响,尤其是对经济发展速度带来一定影响,但在本文假设的气候变化幅度范围,即(T≤1.8℃,ΔP≥-0.24%,气候变化不会改变水资源系统运行和发展的基本规律。经济发展、科技进步、人口增长和管理水平提高是水资源系统运行和发展变化的内在动力,决定着水资源系统及其供需平衡发展变化的基本趋势。预测结果可作为研究区需水管理和节水水平提高的定量参照指标,同时也为其经济规划、水资源调配提供必要的决策依据。 相似文献
3.
气候变化和人类活动对渭河流域蓝水绿水影响研究 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6
以渭河流域为研究对象,探讨了1980~2009年气候变化和人类活动对蓝绿水资源的影响。结果表明：① 研究时段内,在气候变化和人类活动的共同影响下,蓝水流、绿水流和绿水储量分别下降了23.56 mm/a、39.41 mm/a和17.98 mm/a,中北部的蓝水流和绿水储量呈现增加的趋势,流域上游地区的绿水流呈现下降趋势。② 归因分析表明,蓝水流、绿水流和绿水储量在气候变化驱动下分别下降了13.17 mm/a、44.99 mm/a和22.79 mm/a;土地利用/覆盖变化则导致蓝水流和绿水流分别减少0.42 mm/a和0.37 mm/a,绿水储量增加了0.79 mm/a;而农业灌溉使蓝水流减少了9.97 mm/a,绿水流和绿水储量分别增加了5.95 mm/a和4.02 mm/a。③ 气候变化导致研究区东南部绿水系数呈现增加趋势,而泾河流域绿水系数呈现减小趋势。同时,土地利用/覆盖变化使得东南部的一些子流域绿水系数呈减小的趋势,而在加入农业灌溉情景后,平原地区灌区绿水系数呈明显的上升趋势。 相似文献
4.
Climate change, land-use change, and population growth are fundamental factors affecting future hydrologic conditions in streams, especially in arid regions with scarce water resources. Located in the arid southwest within the Las Vegas Wash watershed, Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas of the country. In the past 30?years, because of climate and land-use changes, it has experienced a decrease in clean water supply but an increase in water demand. To alleviate some of these problems, large amounts of water have been pumped into the city from different sources, such as Lake Mead, and the urban wastewater is treated and returned back to the reservoir for water augmentation. However, in the face of continual global climate change and urbanization in the watershed, long-term planning for sustainable water management is critical. This research was designed to provide a comprehensive analysis incorporating hydrologic modeling, population projection, land-use change modeling, and water management policies to examine the total water balance and management options in this arid and rapidly urbanizing watershed under various scenarios of climate regime, population growth, land-use change, and total water management programs for the year 2050. 相似文献
5.
With the possibility of future fresh water shortages increasing, a methodology that incorporates climatic and anthropogenic factors is needed. This research estimates future water availability in the Lower Cape Fear basin using changes in climate, land use, and population growth. The USGS Thornthwaite monthly water balance model is used with estimates of climate change and land use change parameters to assess future water resources based on predicted monthly fluxes of the water balance.The southern United States is a rapidly growing region. Trends present in the population data are used to produce future estimates of population for the basin. Precipitation and temperature estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions and current climatology are inputs to the model. Projected increases in impervious surface cover due to population growth and urbanization are incorporated through the model runoff factor. Water stress indicators are used to categorize the sub-watersheds as water rich, water stressed, or water scarce. Scenarios incorporating regional predictions of climate change indicate a decrease in summer soil moisture minima and increases in summer water deficits. Ensemble runs indicate a shift toward water stress in the Lower Cape Fear River basin, due to a warming climate as well as increased demand. While climate change has a significant impact on water resources, population growth was found to have the most substantial impact. The methods and findings have application to water managers at local and regional levels. 相似文献
6.
水贫困测量及应用的国际研究进展 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
水贫困理论导源于一般的贫困理论,该理论确定了人们为了消除贫困必须具备的五种能力.五种基本能力与人们生存发展的五种生计资本以及水贫困的五个维度三者之间存在某种对应关系;水贫困的定义仍然处于争论之中,但是任何人对它的限定至少都包含着生计资本的一个或者多个方面.水贫困的测量也经历了由单个变量到多个变量、由相等权重到不同权重、由简单到复杂的演变过程.水贫困研究结果的分析方法也有五种之多,各有所侧重.在水贫困理论研究的国际应用方面,最具有代表性的成果是Caroline Sullivan博士于2002年在测算了各国WPI的基础上,对世界上147个国家的WPI得分进行了排队,结果芬兰以78.0的得分高居榜首,海地得分35.1分,列147位,中国得51.1分,居106位,并且根据计算数据编制了全球WPI地图.在国别研究中,Claudia Heidecke于2006对贝宁全国各地区的WPI值进行了计算,经研究,建立了贝宁的WPI地理空间数据库.另外,WPI还可在流域和社区尺度上应用.近年来,水贫困理论进一步发展为WWI和CVI,显示出水贫困理论的前景和发展趋势. 相似文献
7.
Stewart J. Cohen 《The Professional geographer》1986,38(4):317-323
Two scenarios of CO2-induced climatic change and projections of population and consumptive use of water to the year 2035 are utilized in a climate impact assessment of future water resources in the Great Lakes basin. When expressed as a streamflow/population index, results indicate a sharp decline of this index. Future index values are projected to be similar to those presently recorded for the Colorado River basin. 相似文献
8.
气候变率影响下博茨瓦纳河流流量的时空变化 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Nnyaladzi BATISANI 《地理学报(英文版)》2011,21(3):417-428
The fourth assessment report of the IPCC highlights that the global average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 to 4.0℃ by the year 2100 compared to current climate. Given that climate is the most important driver of the hydrological cycle, the rise in temperature could cause changes in occurrence patterns of extreme hydrologic events like streamflow droughts. An increase in frequency and severity of these events could pose seri-ous challenges for sustainable management of water resources particular in arid regions. However, the understanding of water resources dynamics and the possible impacts of climate change on these dynamics is hindered by uncertainties in climate change models and com-plex hydrological responses of streams and catchments to climatic changes. Therefore ob-servational evidence of streamflow dynamics at the local scale could play a crucial role in addressing these uncertainties and achieving a fuller reconciliation between model-based scenarios and ground truth. This paper determines spatial and temporal changes in stream-flow volumes and their association with climatic factors based on the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and ANOVA to determine possible changes in streamflow over the years and their relation to climatic factors. Streamflow is generally stochastic highlighting the im-portance of factoring in temporal flow variability in water resources planning. There is no clear evidence that changes in climatic variables are related to streamflow behaviour. 相似文献
9.
Sarah Allen 《Urban geography》2013,34(7):1030-1038
Demand for water resources has increased globally along with concerns over its protection, usage and potential scarcity. The location of abundant water sources do not always coincide with where large quantities of people reside. As such, many regions live with the threat of water shortages. Interpretations of water scarcity from international, national and regional scales of analysis are projected onto water availability at the local scale due to large, and often intimidating, global facts. This article looks at the periurban area of Can Tho, Vietnam, to argue that the discourse around water scarcity creates the impression of a water crisis. A local scale analysis reflects that residents of Can Tho have the knowledge to use local water resources in many different ways, thus ensuring their personal water security. The assessment of water scarcity at the national and international scale does not translate to Can Tho’s current situation. 相似文献
10.
《The Professional geographer》2013,65(4):317-320
Two scenarios of CO2-induced climatic change and projections of population and consumptive use of water to the year 2035 are utilized in a climate impact assessment of future water resources in the Great Lakes basin. When expressed as a streamflow/population index, results indicate a sharp decline of this index. Future index values are projected to be similar to those presently recorded for the Colorado River basin. 相似文献
11.
HUANG Mengdong XIAO Yu XU Jie LIU Jingya WANG Yangyang GAN Shuang LV Shixuan XIE Gaodi 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2022,13(5):925-935
Research on spatial flow as it relates to the relationship between the supply and demand of ecosystem services supports a significant connection between the supply of ecosystem services and human well-being. Understanding the entire process of the production and flow, as well as the use of ecosystem services, accurately assessing the balance of supply and demand of ecosystem services, and establishing a two-way feedback relationship between supply and demand are vital for the scientific management of the ecosystem and ensuring the sustainable development of regional resources. Based on a large number of relevant publications, this paper comprehensively summarizes the concepts and assessment methods of ecosystem service supply and demand from the perspective of ecosystem service supply and demand, and discusses the impacts of land use and climate change on the temporal and spatial changes of ecosystem services under the background of global change. Then, an analysis of the research progress in the ecosystem services spatial flow indicated that there are still deficiencies in the quantification of cultural services, the dynamics of ecosystem service flow and the driving mechanism of ecosystem services. We also propose that clarifying the driving mechanism and transfer process of ecosystem services, and realizing the mutual conversion between different spatial-temporal scales of ecosystem services, is an important approach for improving the application of ecosystem services research in practice in the future. 相似文献
12.
华北平原农业水资源供需状况评价方法 总被引：14，自引：3，他引：11
随着国民经济的发展,城市化规模的扩大以及人口的增加,华北平原农业水资源的供需矛盾日趋尖锐。人们在进行供需评价时,曾一度停留在水量的供需平衡上,以需定供,缺少对水资源供需之间的矛盾及不协调的问题进行深层次的分析。此文采用综合评价模型对农业水资源供需现状进行评价。这是一种定量化的评价分析方法,即首先对影响供需状况的因素进行分类,形成一个层次,而每一个因素又由若干个指标组成,构成下一个层次,依次类推,这样就构成了一个层次间互相联系的指标体系。对每个地区,每一个因素和指标用评定系数来表示该因素或指标对供需状况的作用,然后再用综合评价模型对该地区供需状况进行计算和总体评价。 相似文献
13.
Land use is a main driver for changes in supply and demand of regulating ecosystem services (ES). Most current ES inventories are static and do not address dynamics of ES supply resulting from historic and future land use change. This paper analyzes the role of land use change for the supply of two regulating services, flood regulation and climate regulation, in the European Union (EU) for the period between 1900 and 2000 as well as for four plausible scenarios of future land use change up to 2040. We show that spatio-temporal dynamics of climate regulation are high during this time period, and that future levels of climate regulation are higher than 100 years ago. For flood regulation, we show that increases in the demand over the past century, which are continued in the future scenarios, are the main contributor for spatial mismatches of supply and demand. Our results indicate that, in spite of land use change, the overall supply of the two regulating services is expected to be moderately stable, or to even increase in the coming decades. At the same time, demands for these services are rapidly increasing, and it is unlikely that projected supply is sufficient to meet these demands. The results also indicate that land use allocation that favors the supply of regulating services can be seen as a nature-based solution in which potentials for synergies between multiple ES can be operationalized. 相似文献
14.
全球变暖对区域水资源影响的计算分析：以海南岛万泉河为例 总被引：23，自引：0，他引：23
自1985年世界气象组织(WMO)在奥地利召开全球气候增暖的专门会议之后,全球气候变暖对水资源及陆地生态系统的影响成为非常活跃的研究领域。本文利用水量平衡模型,采取假定气候方案方法,分析了万泉河流域水资源状况对全球增暖的响应。结果表明:温度升高将明显导致区域径流量减少、年径流系列的不稳定性增强、土壤蓄水降低,同时径流年内分配也发生变化。为未来全球变暖状况下,区域水资源管理提供依据。 相似文献
15.
A. P. Demin 《Geography and Natural Resources》2016,37(3):181-191
The role of East, South and Central Asia in the world development is shown. The current per capita availability of water resources is calculated for the countries of the region. It is found that on the whole for the territory under investigation the availability of water resources is more than twice as small as the world’s average indicator and that more than 1.5 billion people live in conditions of water stress and deficit. It is pointed out that by the year 2010 more than 70% of the population lived in conditions of high pressure on water resources, and 225 million people lived under very high and critical water stress conditions. The current pattern of water use in the countries of Asia is calculated, the dominant role of the agrarian sector is identified. An analysis is made of the measures for increasing the water availability level of the population and the economy: an increase in agricultural productivity of water resources, waste water reuse, use of saline waters, and the construction of reservoirs. Attention is given to an active construction of dams by China in the upper reaches of the Mekong which is causing distrust and tension in downstream countries. Statistical data on cooperation and conflicts in international basins of Asia is reported. It is shown that in the 20 th century the basins of the Indus and Ganges rivers experienced the largest number of water conflicts as compared to all the international basins of the world; information regarding an acute struggle for water resources in Central Asia is also provided. It is concluded that in view of an ever increasing deficit of water resources, cooperation is the only alternative for Asian countries. 相似文献
16.
The Arab region covers an area over 13 million square kilometers in size, with almost 90% of its area classified as arid or extremely arid with very little precipitation, extremely high evaporation and almost no vegetation cover. The region is classified in many international reports as the poorest region in the world in the context of renewable water resources and critical water scarcity which hinders the socio-economic development of many countries in this region. The rapidly increasing population has reduced the per capita share of renewable water to less than the poverty line of 1,000 m 3 /(capita·a) and, in some Arab countries, to less than the extreme poverty line of 500 m 3 /(capita·a). This has led to over-exploitation of non-renewable groundwater and desalination of salty water in many countries with considerable costs and contamination of many renewable sources. Atmospheric processes responsible for aridity in the Arab region are projected to intensify due to climate change, resulting in an alarming decrease in precipitation and increase in evaporation rates. Many concerned entities in the region consider water security as a key element for food security and ultimately political stability. Hence, various efforts have been exerted to identify key problems and suggested solutions. The Arab Water Ministers Council of the Arab League, as well as Reports of the Arab Forum for the Environment and Development (AFED) and the recommendations of the 13th Regional Meeting of the Arab National Committees of the International Hydrological Programme of UNESCO (IHP), have all made similar recommendations on the need to address the issues of water scarcity in the Arab region which will be further discussed in this paper. However, none of these reports focused on "Water Conservation" as an equally important action for coping with water scarcity in the region. There are many definitions for "Water Conservation" in the scientific literature, including huge water savings from irrigation, industrial use, and domestic use as well as methods and approaches for augmenting water supply through non-conventional practices such as water harvesting and waste water reuse. In this paper, a review is provided for definitions, methods and impacts of water conservation and its role in alleviating water scarcity in the Arab region. 相似文献
17.
干旱半干旱地区水资源缺乏,准确地计算区域生态环境用水和生态环境需水,可以对稀缺水资源进行合理调配,同时起到生态保护的作用。研究过程主要分为两个步骤:(1)采用RS技术,对新疆哈密地区1990年、2000年、2005年中巴资源一号卫星(China Brazil Earth Resources Sat-ellite)数据进行解译,形成1990年、2000年、2005年哈密地区土地覆被图形数据和相应的属性数据,确定相应年份各景观类型的面积;(2)参考有关研究并结合哈密地区实际情况,确定各景观类型的单位生态用水定额和需水定额,进而计算出1990年、2000年、2005年哈密地区的生态用水量,并以2005年哈密地区生态用水量为主要依据计算出保持哈密地区生态环境现状的生态需水量。研究结果表明,为了实现哈密地区生态环境整体保持在现状水平不致恶化、局部区域生态环境(巴里坤湖区)有所改善的生态治理目标,区域内生态环境需水总量为7.526×109m3,这一庞大的需水量将对该地区水资源配置造成巨大的压力;而当结合各类景观的地物空间位置特征进行分析时,发现该区域生态用(需)水量最大的景观(低覆盖草地)可以利用山地积雪融水进行自给,区域内实际需要规划配置的生态环境需水量为2.66×108m3,仅占区域生态环境需水总量的3.53%。在区域生态用(需)水计算过程中应考虑各种景观类型的生态用(需)水量的时空差异性,以保证水资源调配的科学与合理。 相似文献
18.
《自然地理学》2013,34(1):22-51
Recent climate analyses indicate that average global temperature is rising and both global drought occurrence and precipitation intensity are increasing. The nature of climate change is unique to each location, and its impact, both positive and negative, is predicted to be widespread. One area to be potentially affected includes management and use of outdoor natural resources such as the Appalachian Trail (AT), a 3500 km continuous hiking trail in the eastern United States. Observed historical (1895-2008) and projected future (to 2099) seasonal temperature and precipitation trends were examined along the AT. The AT has generally warmed since 1895, with greater warming occurring more recently. The warming has been greatest in the northern part of the AT and during winter. Precipitation trends show wide spatial variation depending upon the season, but generally precipitation has increased more in the northern than southern AT. Temperature and precipitation are projected to increase for all regions during all seasons in the future. Implications of these changes are discussed with respect to hiker experience and trail management. 相似文献
19.
随着气候变化、人口增长和经济发展,全球水资源供需矛盾日益突出,国际河流跨境水冲突不断加剧。地处中东的约旦河是世界上跨境水冲突最严重的河流。1948—2008年约旦河跨境水冲突事件数量占全球总量的1/5,战争性跨境水冲突数量占同级别总量的2/3。本文以地缘价值、地缘关系和地缘结构为模块构建国际河流跨境水冲突地缘环境分析框架,考察约旦河跨境水冲突事件的时空演化及其形成的地缘机制。研究发现,约旦河跨境水冲突的地缘目标集中于水资源战略要地,且按水资源地“主要→核心→次要”空间转移;跨境水冲突事件在时序上呈现从以色列争夺水权为主向域内阿拉伯国家讨还水权为主演化;跨境水冲突地缘体结构中以色列主动发起的跨境水冲突占六成多,域内阿拉伯国家和域外地缘体发起的各约占二成。基于地缘环境分析框架的研究得出以下结论：约旦河流域区位的地缘价值吸引域外大国直接介入,促成跨境水冲突向有利于美国—以色列利益的方向发展;域内地缘体的“水资源地”竞争地缘关系强于“水量”竞争地缘关系,对约旦河跨境水冲突具有强化作用;以色列作为约旦河地缘结构中的水霸权,对该流域跨境水冲突的基本态势和时空分布格局具有主导作用。 相似文献
20.
气候变化对水文水资源影响的研究进展 总被引：20，自引：1，他引：19
气候变化成为21 世纪世界最重大的环境问题之一,愈来愈引起国际社会和各国政府的重视和关注。研究 气候变化对水文水资源的影响,对于理解和解决可能引起的与工业、农业、城市发展等经济领域密切相关的水文水 资源系统的规划管理、开发利用、运行管理、环境保护、生态平衡等问题具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文主要 从研究方法、气候变化情景的生成技术、与水文模型接口技术和水文模拟技术等几个方面综合概述了气候变化对 水文水资源的影响,同时提出存在的问题与展望。 相似文献