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1.
Moment tensors and micromechanical models 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
A numerical modelling approach that simulates cracking and failure in rock and the associated seismicity is presented and a technique is described for quantifying the seismic source mechanisms of the modelled events. The modelling approach represents rock as an assemblage of circular particles bonded together at points of contact. The connecting bonds can break under applied stress forming cracks and fractures in the modelled rock. If numerical damping is set to reproduce realistic levels of attenuation, then energy is released when the bonds break and seismic source information can be obtained as damage occurs. A technique is described by which moment tensors and moment magnitudes can be calculated for these simulated seismic events. The technique basically involves integrating around the source and summing the components of force change at the surrounding particle contacts to obtain the elements of the moment tensor matrix. The moment magnitude is then calculated from the eigenvalues of the moment tensor. The modelling approach is tested by simulating a well-controlled experiment in which a tunnel is excavated in highly stressed granite while microseismicity is recorded. The seismicity produced by the model is compared to the actual recorded seismicity underground. The model reproduces the spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity observed around the tunnel and also the magnitudes of the events. A direct comparison between the actual and simulated moment tensors is not performed due to the two-dimensional nature of the model, however, qualitative comparisons are presented and it is shown that the model produces intuitively realistic source mechanisms. The ability to obtain seismic source information from the models provides a unique means for model validation through comparison with actual recorded seismicity. Once it is established that the model is performing in a realistic manner, it can then be used to examine the micromechanics of cracking, failure and the associated seismicity and to help resolve the non-uniqueness of the geophysical interpretation. This is demonstrated by examining in detail the mechanics of one of the modelled seismic events by observation of the time dependence of the moment tensor and by direct examination of the particle motions at the simulated source. 相似文献
2.
Ewa GłOwacka 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(2):121-132
Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland. 相似文献
3.
Scott C. Meyer 《Hydrogeology Journal》2005,13(5-6):871-885
Statistical analysis shows that mean annual base flows in three unregulated urban streams in northeastern Illinois do not display significant trends during periods of substantial watershed urbanization. However, statistically-significant upward trends in median annual base flow (probably emblematic of overall changes in the time-distribution of the base flow), characterized by increases in lower base flow rates, affected the flows in all three streams. The analysis reveals no trends in annual and monthly precipitation during these periods. These results are in contrast to results from studies of other urban streams that have shown decreases in base flow, but these results may be partially explained by the low permeability of the near-surface materials in the watersheds investigated. This study employs formal hypothesis-testing of Kendall tau-a trend statistics computed for monthly and annual base flow and precipitation rates to assess the impact of urban development on base flow rates.
Resumen El análisis estadístico muestra que el flujo base anual medio en tres arroyos urbanos no regulados en el noreste de Illinois no ostenta tendencias significativas durante los periodos de urbanización sustancial de la cuenca. Sin embargo, el flujo en los tres arroyos fue afectado por tendencias al incremento en el flujo base annual medio. Esto es probablemente emblemático en cambios globales en el tiempo-distribución del flujo base caracterizado por incrementos en las tasas de flujo base bajo y afecta a los tres arroyos. El análisis no revela ninguna tendencia en la precipitación annual y mensual durante estos periodos. Estos resultados contrastan con los resultados de estudios de otros arroyos urbanos que muestran un decrecimiento en el fujo base. Sin embargo, estos resultados pueden explicarse parcialmente por la baja permeabilidad de los materiales cercanos a la superficie en las cuencas investigadas. Este estudio emplea las estadísticas de tendencia tau-a de la hipótesis de prueba formal de Kendall - calculadas según los flujos base mensuales y anuales y las tasas de precipitación. El objetivo es evaluar los impactos del desarrollo urbano sobre las tasas de flujo base.
Résumé Une analyse statistique démontre que la moyenne annuelle de lécoulement de base dans trois rivières urbaines non réglementées du nord est de lIllinois ne montre pas de tendance significative lors de périodes durbanisation massive du bassin versant. Par contre, une tendance statistiquement significative à la hausse de lécoulement de base médian, probablement représentatif de lensemble des changements dans la distribution temporelle de lécoulement de base caractérisé par une augmentation des faibles taux découlement de base, affecte lécoulement dans les trois rivières. Lanalyse ne révèle pas de tendance dans les précipitations annuelles et mensuelles lors de ces périodes. Ces résultats contrastent avec les résultats dautres études de rivières en milieu urbain qui ont montré une diminution de lécoulement de base. Les résultats obtenus lors de cette étude peuvent partiellement être expliqués par la faible perméabilité des dépôts de surface dans le bassin versant étudié. Cette étude utilise le test dhypothèse tau de Kandall, une tendance statistique calculée pour lécoulement de base annuel et mensuel et des taux de précipitation dans le but de déterminer limpact du développement urbain sur les taux découlement de base.相似文献
4.
Seismic events can take place due to the interaction of stress waves induced by stope production blasts with faults located in close proximity to stopes. The occurrence of such seismic events needs to be controlled to ensure the safety of the mine operators and the underground mine workings. This paper presents the results of a dynamic numerical modelling study of fault slip induced by stress waves resulting from stope production blasts. First, the calibration of a numerical model having a single blast hole is performed using a charge weight scaling law to determine blast pressure and damping coefficient of the rockmass. Subsequently, a numerical model of a typical Canadian metal mine encompassing a fault parallel to a tabular ore deposit is constructed, and the simulation of stope extraction sequence is carried out with static analyses until the fault exhibits slip burst conditions. At that point, the dynamic analysis begins by applying the calibrated blast pressure to the stope wall in the form of velocities generated by the blast holes. It is shown from the results obtained from the dynamic analysis that the stress waves reflected on the fault create a drop of normal stresses acting on the fault, which produces a reduction in shear stresses while resulting in fault slip. The influence of blast sequences on the behaviour of the fault is also examined assuming several types of blast sequences. Comparison of the blast sequence simulation results indicates that performing simultaneous blasts symmetrically induces the same level of seismic events as separate blasts, although seismic energy is more rapidly released when blasts are performed symmetrically. On the other hand when nine blast holes are blasted simultaneously, a large seismic event is induced, compared to the other two blasts. It is concluded that the separate blasts might be employed under the adopted geological conditions. The developed methodology and procedure to arrive at an ideal blast sequence can be applied to other mines where faults are found in the vicinity of stopes. 相似文献
5.
Manuel Rocha Medal Recipient Rock Fracture and Collapse Under Low Confinement Conditions 总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2
M. S. Diederichs 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2003,36(5):339-381
Summary The primary objective of this work was an examination of the complimentary roles of tensile damage and confinement reduction (or stress relaxation) on excavation response of hard rockmasses. Tensile damage and relaxation are examined with respect to structurally controlled or gravity driven failure modes as well as to strength controlled or stress driven rockmass damage and yield. In conventional analysis of both structurally controlled and stress driven failure, the effects of tensile damage and tensile resistance as well as the elevated sensitivity to low confinement are typically neglected, leading to erroneous predictions of groundfall potential or rock yield. The important role of these two elements in underground excavation stability in hard rock environments is examined in detail through a review of testing data, case study examination and a number of analytical and numerical analogues including discrete element simulation, statistical theory and fracture mechanics. This rigorous theoretical treatment updates, validates and constrains the current use of semi-empirical design guidelines based on these mechanisms. 相似文献
6.
H. Langer 《Natural Hazards》1990,3(2):125-139
The estimation of seismic loading requires both the featuring of the seismotectonic environment as well as a prognosis of site-specific strong ground-motion parameters. Due to the long recurrence times of larger events, there is a lack of high quality strong motion recordings at many sites. The use of seismograms obtained from different seismotectonic regions, additionally recorded under different subsoil conditions, poses several questions as to the significance of the assessment of seismic loading. A way to overcome these problems is the generation of synthetic seismograms, e.g. by the use of Boore's stochastic procedure. Subsoil conditions may be explicitly included in the simulation as proposed by Kunze et al. In this context, the seismotectonic environment forms the deterministic frame of any stochastic strong ground-motion simulation. In terms of Boore's approach, seismic moment, global stress drop, high frequency cut off, and focal depth act as controlling parameters. In order to achieve a more realistic assessment of possible seismic loading, a classification of seismoactive zones should account for parameter vectors as described above rather than for single parameters like magnitudes or intensities. A tool to attack this task may be found in cluster analysis, which is a type of pattern recognition based on statistical considerations. Crucial to this technique, however, is the use of properly estimated parameters, which still cause discussion in the seismological community. Problems and chances of the approach are discussed with examples from the Swabian Jura and the Rhine graben.Paper presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission held in Sofia, 1988. 相似文献
7.
岩体破裂矩张量反演方法及其应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
地震及岩体失稳破裂过程中,破裂机制、震源参数及破裂能量等信息均可通过矩张量方法求解,文中详细介绍了矩张量基本理论,对比分析了绝对矩张量反演法、相对矩张量反演法、混合型矩张量反演法等3种常用方法的优缺点。在详细归纳、总结国内外相关文献的基础上,就水压致裂、采矿及深埋隧道等工程领域综述了矩张量反演理论在岩体工程中的应用现状,并结合其在德国黑林根矿区微震事件震源机制分析中的应用实例,表明通过矩张量反演获取的震源机制解及震源参数等信息,在岩体工程灾害预警及防治、水压致裂过程监测和控制等领域具有重要作用。最后分析了影响矩张量反演精度的因素及应用于岩体工程领域时存在的不足,包括定位精度低、波形识别及处理困难等问题,并对其在采矿、石油等岩体工程领域的应用前景、改进措施及需进一步研究的问题等进行了探讨,为矩张量反演方法的推广应用提供重要的参考。 相似文献
8.
In this paper a method is proposed to evaluate the seismicity level of an area in a given historical period, based on records of seismic events, source characteristics and intensity attenuation with distance. Also considered is the seismic activity recorded in southern Italy during the 10th and 11th centuries, seismic records being obtained from all available sources. To determine the level of seismicity, a key role is played by source characteristics, i.e. recording modalities and activity periods of recording centers. In addition, models of intensity attenuation with distance allow the assessment of the size of the area under investigation. This paper identifies the areas, in the 10th and 11th centuries, where major earthquakes (M 6.5) did not occur during periods of silence of sources, as well as those where such events cannot be excluded. For each area, different levels of probability were determined by applying the Cox linear logistic model to historical seismic data. The completeness analysis, in terms of area and time-span coverage, is a valuable tool to assess seismicity in seismogenetic areas. The reproducibility of the model for lower magnitude earthquakes (M < 6.5) is reliable. 相似文献
9.
M. Semih Yücemen 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(3):201-226
Probabilistic methods are used to quantify the seismic hazard in Jordan and neighbouring regions. The hazard model incorporates the uncertainties associated with the seismicity parameters and the attenuation equation. Seven seismic sources are identified in the region and the seismicity parameters of these sources are estimated by making use of all the available information. Seismic hazard computations and the selection of peak ground acceleration and modified Mercalli intensity values at the nodes of a 25 × 25 km mesh covering the region under study are carried out by two different computer programs.The results of the study are presented through a set of seismic hazard maps displaying iso-acceleration and iso-intensity contours corresponding to specified return periods. The first set of maps is derived based on the seismicity data assessed in this study and display our best estimate of the seismic hazard for Jordan and the neighbouring areas. The second set of maps which shows the alternative estimate of seismic hazard is based solely on the seismicity parameters reported by other researchers. The third set of maps, called the Bayesian estimate of seismic hazard, reflects the influence of expert opinion involving more conservative assumptions regarding the Red Sea and Araba faults. 相似文献
10.
Satar Mahdevari Kourosh Shahriar Mostafa Sharifzadeh Dwayne D. Tannant 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(18):709
Failure mechanisms of the rock mass in the regions of maximum stress concentrations around a longwall face were assessed. In this respect, seismic events that result from changes in the stress field were analyzed to gain more knowledge about rock failure mechanisms in the proximity of the face area. A deep longwall mine developed at depths of about 3–3.5 km in South Africa was selected as a case study. Seismic moment tensor solutions were obtained for 32 seismic events with moment magnitudes in the range of 0.49 and 2.10. Through moment tensor decomposition, the dominant failure mechanisms were investigated by drawing focal mechanism plots. Further analysis was implemented by depicting the corresponding 3D radiation patterns of P-wave particle motions. Although the results cover various failure mechanisms, the dominant mechanisms are shear, implosional, and compressional failures. According to the results, most of the maximum principal stresses in the mine are compressive and oriented nearly vertical, which are in accordance with the gravitational collapses of the mined out areas. The results obtained from this research show that measuring and analyzing mining-induced seismicity can be a reliable measure to characterize the dominant failure mechanisms in a nondestructive manner and to provide a useful assessment of the stability of the longwall face in advance of extraction. 相似文献
11.
Emile A. Okal 《Natural Hazards》1988,1(1):67-96
We present a review of the influence of various parameters of the sources of major oceanic earthquakes on the amplitude of tsunamis at transoceanic distances. We base our computations on the normal mode formalism, applied to realistic Earth models, but interpret our principal results in the simpler framework of Haskell theory in the case of a water layer over a Poisson half-space. Our results show that source depth and focal geometry play only a limited role in controlling the amplitude of the tsunami; their combined influence reaches at most 1 order of magnitude down to a depth of 150 km into the hard rock. More important are the effects of directivity due to rupture propagation along the fault, which for large earthquakes can result in a ten-fold decrease in tsunami amplitude by destructive interference, and the possibility of enhanced tsunami excitation in material with weaker elastic properties, such as sedimentary layers. Modelling of the so-called tsunami earthquakes suggests that an event for which 10% of the moment release takes place in sediments generates a tsunami 10 times larger than its seismic moment would suggest. We also investigate the properties of non-double couple sources and find that their relative excitation of tsunamis and Rayleigh waves is in general comparable to that of regular seismic sources. In particular, landslides involving weak sediments could result in very large tsunamis. Finally, we emphasize that the final amplitude at a receiving shore can be strongly affected by focusing and defocusing effects, due to variations in bathymetry along the path of the tsunami. 相似文献
12.
B. C. Papazachos Ch. A. Papaioannov D. J. Papastamatiou B. N. Margaris N. P. Theodulidis 《Natural Hazards》1990,3(2):141-151
Historical and present century instrumental data have been used to determine seismic hazard in 35 sites of Greece by the application of Cornell's method (Cornell, 1968) and the mean value method. The macroseismic intensity has been considered as a measure of seismic hazard. Comparison of the results of the two methods showed that, in general, the mean value method gives higher values, particularly for low probabilities of exceedance. In addition, for some sites, the differences of the expected intensities resulting from the two methods, indicate that finer tuning of the seismogenic souce model is required, or suggest time dependence. Although each one of these methods has its own merits, the method based on seismic zonation (Cornell's method) has several advantages and must be preferred when an accurate zonation is possible by the use of macroseismic and instrumental seismic data, together with geological and geomorphological information. However, reliable estimates of seismic hazard at a particular site require work on a microzoning scale, incorporating historical, archaeological, and recent geological data.Paper presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission held in Sofia, 1988. 相似文献
13.
Some Bayesian methods of dealing with inaccurate or vague data are introduced in the framework of seismic hazard assessment. Inaccurate data affected by heterogeneous errors are modeled by a probability distribution instead of the usual value plus a random error representation; these data are generically called imprecise. The earthquake size and the number of events in a certain time are modeled as imprecise data. Imprecise data allow us to introduce into the estimation procedures the uncertainty inherent in the inaccuracy and heterogeneity of the measuring systems from which the data were obtained. The problem of estimating the parameter of a Poisson process is shown to be feasible by the use of Bayesian techniques and imprecise data. This background technique can be applied to a general problem of seismic hazard estimation. Initially, data in a regional earthquake catalog are assumed imprecise both in size and location (i.e errors in the epicenter or spreading over a given source). By means of scattered attenuation laws, the regional catalog can be translated into a so-called site catalog of imprecise events. The site catalog is then used to estimate return periods or occurrence probabilities, taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Special attention is paid to priors in the Bayesian estimation. They can be used to introduce additional information as well as scattered frequency-size laws for local events. A simple example is presented to illustrate the capabilities of this methodology. 相似文献
14.
D. Jean Hutchinson C. Phillips G. Cascante 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2002,20(1):41-64
Evaluation of the long-term surface stability of crown pillars overlying underground mines is an important component of mine closure planning. The definition of a crown pillar, as well as a brief discussion of the assessment of the probability and consequence of crown pillar failure are given in this paper. Techniques for stability assessment using mechanistic, empirical and numerical simulation techniques are discussed. Consequence assessment is discussed, but is still subjective and difficult to quantify. Where crown pillars are suspected to be marginally stable or unstable either at the time of the investigation or over the long term, and where the consequence of failure is medium to high, the closure plan for the site must include proposed rehabilitation alternatives. Selection of the optimum solution depends largely upon financial considerations, but also upon the common public expectation that the result of mine closure planning be a permanent solution that does not restrict public access or future land use on the site. 相似文献
15.
A. Montalto 《Natural Hazards》1995,11(1):57-73
Active volcanic areas are sometimes affected by phreatic eruptions, which are explosions due to the outbreak of a confined pocket of steam and gas without the direct involvement of molten magma. Eruptive activity at La Fossa Volcano, Island of Vulcano (Italy), typically starts with a phreatic explosion, continues as phreatomagmatic and turns into a late magmatic stage, depending on the reduction in the efficiency of magma-water interaction. The present risk is mainly related to a village located at the very foot of the active volcanic cone, which in summer seasons is inhabited by more than 10,000 people. Because the last eruptive episode occurred in 1888–1890, when no local instrumental control was performed, the scientific community does not have any information about the seismic phenomena which could precede the initial phreatic blast. Inferences from similar monitored volcanoes, which awakened in the last few years after more or less long quiescence, are therefore made to tentatively depict possible pre-eruptive seismic scenarios and also to evaluate the most appropriate surveillance and alert criteria to adopt. Appreciable signs of volcanic unrest have been detected in recent years, mainly related to modifications in the physical and chemical features of fumarolic fluids discharged at the active crater. Following the classification of local seismic shocks, the recording oflong-period events (peak frequency 2 Hz) should be taken into account as a realistic seismic warning of volcanic hazard enhancement. A likely short-term seismic precursor may be finally given by the appearance of the so-calledbanded tremor, a seismic signal likely produced by intermittent hydrothermal boiling accompanying the hydraulic fracturing of rocks at the top of a pressurized aquifer. Real-time recognition of tremor can be therefore very useful to avoid, at least, injuries to volcanologists and visitors working or staying on the most dangerous sectors of the volcano. 相似文献
16.
Pathways to seismic hazard evaluation: Extreme and characteristic earthquakes in areas of low and high seismicity 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Paul W. Burton 《Natural Hazards》1990,3(3):275-291
The general philosophy of seismic hazard evaluation described here is appropriate for selection of seismic input to regional earthquake engineering codes prior to detailed on-site inspections and geotechnical assessments. Some probabilistic seismic hazard methodologies which can be applied in areas of low and high seismicity, are briefly described to emphasise the main equations with specimen results. Three aspects of hazard assessment are explored by different pathways. These include the analysis of regional earthquake catalogues to obtain magnitude recurrence, particularly using Gumbel extreme value statistics. This is extended to assess ground shaking hazard which is usually sought by earthquake engineers. Thirdly, the concept of earthquake perceptibility is developed, leading to the identification of an earthquake magnitude or type which is characteristic of a region. This most perceptible earthquake is most likely to be felt at any site in a region and provides an earthquake selection criterion which can be used in aseismic design of noncritical structures. Because there are several methods of seismic hazard evaluation, the view is expressed that it is sensible for practical purposes to seek results from different methods or different pathways to the hazard evaluation.Paper presented at the Commission of the European Communities' School on Earthquake Hazard Evaluation, Athens, and at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, held in Sofia, 1988.Now at School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, University Plain, Norwich NR4 7TJ, U.K. 相似文献
17.
Vladimír Schenk Zdeňka Schenková František Mantlík Pavel Kottnauer 《Natural Hazards》1989,2(3-4):267-287
Within the activity of the ESC Subcommission 8 Engineering Seismology, Project TERESA, seismic hazard calculations have been performed for two areas of a different earthquake activity. Fundamental seismological data (earthquake catalogues, macroseismic observations and maps) and some additional geological information were analyzed and processed to prepare inputs for hazard computations. Great attention has been paid to verifying the reliability of the input data. Seismic hazards obtained for five sites of the region of high seismic activity (Sannio-Matese, southern Italy) and six sites of the region of low seismic activity (Brabant Massif and northern Rhine, Belgium—The Netherlands—Germany) are presented and discussed. 相似文献
18.
Accelerating creep of the slopes of a coal mine 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A 249 day long record of the accelerating creep of a slope of an open-pit coal mine is analyzed, using linear regression, to test four creep laws. The Saito and Zavodni and Broadbent laws did not lead to a satisfactory estimation of the time of failure as a range of times of failure satisfied the goodness of fit criteria. Using the generalized Saito law, the upper limit for the time of failure was 168 days after the actual failure. Our prediction of a critical slide velocity for the evacuation of pit personnel and equipment, as an indication of impending failure, used two new methods employing the power and exponential laws. Three accelerating creep stages were identified, threshold velocities of 0.02 mm/min and 0.1 mm/min marked the initiation of the second and third stages, respectively.List of Symbols
t
time
-
t
f
relative time of failure
-
strain or displacement
-
0
displacement at time zero, a constant
-
displacement rate
-
1
at 1 minute
-
m
at the mid point in the second acceleration stage
-
0
at the onset of failure
-
f
at failure
-
C, K, a, b, k, n, s
Constants
-
I
humber of measurements 相似文献
19.
We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 min after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). A new island-wide, high resolution SEM mesh model is developed for the whole Taiwan in this study. We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 min for a 70 s ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time. 相似文献