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1.
王石立 《中国气象科学研究院年报》2005,(1):8-11
1 农业气象灾害预警技术研究
对华北农业干旱、东北作物低温冷害、江淮小麦油菜渍害、华南经济林果寒害和水产寒害等农业气象灾害分别建立了统计预测模型和机理预测模型相结合、长中短不同预报时效相结合的预警预测模型。其中作物生长模型与区域气候模式相结合的新一代农业气象灾害预测技术在实现区域尺度预测应用上取得重要进展；各类预测模型在灾害指标、预测方法上取得新的突破，预报准确率进一步提高。在此基础上，成功研制出包含多种预测方法、不同预报时效、可供准业务运行的农业气象灾害多灾种综合预测预警系统。课题研制的模型进行了业务试验，部分成果如广东经济林果寒害预警已投入业务运行。课题于2005年12月顺利通过项目主持单位农业部组织的专家验收。该课题成果代表了我国目前农业气象灾害预警预测研究的最新进展和水平，对于进一步开展和提高其他地区、其他灾害的预报能力具有一定的推广借鉴作用和应用前景。 相似文献
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3.
2016年和1998年汛期降水特征及物理机制对比分析 总被引：12，自引：1，他引：11
利用多种大气环流、海表温度、积雪面积等数据,并利用个例对比分析和统计方法,研究了2016年汛期（5-8月）中国旱、涝特征及与1998年的异同点,并对比分析了这两年导致降水异常的大气环流和外强迫因子。结果表明:（1）2016年汛期中国降水总体偏多,长江中下游和华北各有一支多雨带。与1998年相比,这两年南方多雨带均位于长江流域,梅雨雨量均较常年偏多1倍以上,但梅雨季节进程有显著差异,1998年发生典型的“二度梅”,而2016年梅雨结束后长江流域降水显著偏少,主要降水区移至北方。（2）2016年5-7月乌拉尔山高压脊明显偏弱,而1998年欧亚中高纬度呈“两脊一槽”型,这与北大西洋海温距平在这两年前冬至春季几乎完全相反的分布型密切相关。（3）这两年5-7月热带和副热带地区环流较为相似,副热带高压偏强、偏西,东亚夏季风偏弱,来自西北太平洋的水汽输送通量均在长江中下游形成异常辐合区,这主要是受到了前期相似的热带海温异常的影响,均为超强厄尔尼诺事件和热带印度洋全区一致偏暖模态。（4）这两年8月环流形势有显著差异,2016年8月副热带高压断裂,西段与大陆高压结合持续控制中国东部上空,夏季风迅速转强,长江流域高温少雨。而1998年8月夏季风进一步减弱,长江流域发生“二度梅”。2016年8月MJO异常活跃并长时间维持在西太平洋地区,激发频繁的热带气旋活动,对副热带地区大气环流的转折有重要作用。而1998年8月MJO主要活跃在印度洋地区,使得副高持续前期偏强的特征。除海洋和上述环流差异外,2016年前冬至春季青藏高原积雪的冷源热力效应远不及1998年强,这可能是导致2016年夏季风偏弱的程度不及1998年,而2016年汛期华北降水较1998年偏多的原因之一。 相似文献
4.
Mahmoud Ahmadi Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari Tayebeh Akbari-Azirani Behnaz Nasiri-Khuzani 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2020,140(3):963-982
Efficient and proper understanding of the state of the clouds regarding different seasons of the year will have profound effects on different economic and environmental sectors. The purpose of this study is to determine the hourly dissociation of ice and liquid clouds in Iran. To this end, cloud optical thickness (COT) data, as well as optical depth of clouds in two phases of liquid and ice were obtained and processed from 31 synoptic meteorological stations (1960–2015), MODIS data from Terra satellite during the years 2001 to 2011, and they were processed then. Next, using the RegCM4 model, the cloud fraction (clt) was simulated to accurately identify the cloud cover situation in Iran. The results showed that the maximum annual mean abundance of liquid and ice clouds was 18.95 days for the time 15:00 and 3.99 days for the time 06:00, respectively. Climatic zones of the Caspian and Persian Gulf coasts at 15 o’clock had the highest decreasing trend of liquid clouds. Ice clouds in all parts of Iran’s climate, with the exception of the eastern plateau, also declined. From south to north and east to west of Iran, the occurrence of ice and liquid clouds is increasing. Therefore, the spatio-temporal distribution of liquid and ice clouds in the country was also dependent on spatial components and latitude had the greatest impact. From the satellite and modeled data, the RegCM4 model has been able to detect the Monsoon phenomenon in southeastern Iran during the summer. CLT simulation in Iran has also shown that cloud cover in Iran fluctuates between 28 and 65% on average, with 81.5% of Iranian stations having a significant change in the amount of annual cloud cover. Correlation of liquid and ice clouds with precipitation showed that liquid clouds in summer and ice clouds in spring had higher correlation with precipitation in Iran. Northern coasts of Iran due to greater ascent mechanisms such as coastal compressors, north latitude atmospheric circulation systems, and maximum winds in the north and west of Iran due to the location of western systems entry and sufficient thermal gradient, had maximum ice clouds in the last half century. Also, south of Iran, despite having extended and great water-bodies, is less cloudy due to descending air in Hadley’s circulation (Hadley cell) of air. 相似文献
5.
Variability and probability of annual and extreme precipitation over Serbia and Montenegro 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Summary Annual precipitation over Serbia and Montenegro is studied in terms of its variability. The dependence of three selected absolute measures of variability (standard deviation, absolute mean deviation and mean absolute interannual variability) from the mean annual precipitation are examined for the area of interest. Two cases of extreme precipitation in Serbia were analysed using the gamma probability density function and some transformations. 相似文献
6.
广西春夏季旱涝的等级划分及时空分布特征分析 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
利用广西80多个站点1961～2006年的逐月降水资料,采用Z指数定义方法,对广西春夏季的旱涝进行等级划分.利用经验正交函数(EOF)分析方法对春夏季旱涝等级的时空分布进行研究,给出了四个旱涝典型场的分布特征.分析结果表明:全区性偏涝或偏旱是春夏季早涝分布的最主要型态;春季和夏季的前4种分布形态都通过了显著性检验,两个季度的第一、第二分布形态都是全区一致型和南北反向型;春季近5年时间系数多为正值,说明近年来全区春季表现为偏旱;1990年以后,夏季第一特征向量时间系数只有3年为正值,其余均为负值,说明近16年广西夏季降水较多,以偏涝为主,年代际变化也较明显. 相似文献
7.
"经济大国能源与气候论坛"在推动全球主要国家就应对气候变化主要议题达成一致方面取得了进展,已初步显示出其作为联合国气候谈判晴雨表的特征。该论坛的实质是主要发达国家为转移减排责任和压力,降低减排成本,绑架主要发展中国家在全球应对气候变化领域实施的集体强权政治。论坛的核心目标在于推动全球量化减排,目的是借全球量化减排,营造低碳和气候友好技术的广大市场,使得具有技术优势的这些经济大国拥有新的主导全球经济的力量。我国应坚持"共同但有区别的责任"原则,联合与会发展中国家强调气候变化的历史责任,反对为全球温室气体排放设限等不公平提议,团结广大发展中国家,同时抓住论坛力推低碳经济和低碳技术发展的机遇,使我国站在全球新一轮技术革命的前沿。 相似文献
8.
Light-absorbing particles in snow and ice: Measurement and modeling of climatic and hydrological impact 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Yun Qian Teppei J. Yasunari Sarah J. Doherty Mark G. Flanner William K. M. Lau Jing Ming Hailong Wang Mo Wang Stephen G. Warren Rudong Zhang 《大气科学进展》2015,32(1):64-91
Light absorbing particles(LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance(a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice(LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g.in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, and climatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle. 相似文献
9.
Summary Due to the strong variation of the Asian monsoon, many countries in Asia often suffer from serious natural disasters. Droughts and floods appear in East China frequently related to the large anomalies of the two branches of East Asian monsoon. Based on rainfall data recorded by 336 Chinese stations in the 1980s, two distinctly opposite rainfall types over East China in summer (JJA) are discovered. Correspondly, 850 hPa anomalous wind fields in the Eastern Hemisphere are also possessed by two types of converse patterns in spring (MAM) and summer (JJA). The onset time and intensity of the Somali jet and the two branches of Southeast and Indian monsoon are quite different. Furthermore, in the 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly fields in spring and summer, the variations of the previous general atmospheric circulation (in spring) are closely correlated to the two kinds of conversely distributed rainfall in summer. These two types of rainfall are also related to two types of conversely distributed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans. To investigate model capabilities refelecting the above observed features, eight numerical experiments are carried out using the IAP 2-L AGCM, with observed monthly mean global SSTs as external forcing and observed atmospheric data on February 15 as initial conditions. The simulated distributions of rainfall anomalies over East China in summer are in good accordance with observations. With conversely distributed SSTAs in the equatorial Pacific, the simulated 850 hPa anomalous wind fields and the 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies are also conversely distributed, and are closely related to the two types of simulated rainfall anomalies over East China. The cross equatorial wind varies in strength, space and time. The simulated distributions of anomalous 500 hPa geopotential height in spring and the anomalous wind at 850 hPa in spring and summer are quite similar to observations.With 10 Figures 相似文献
10.
Sharon E. Nicholson 《Climatic change》1999,41(1):53-71
This paper describes the fluctuations of Lakes Tanganyika and Rukwa over the last two centuries. Lake chronologies extending back to the late eighteenth century are derived from reports of European visitors, settlers and explorers and from oral accounts of the local peoples. The historical fluctuations are meshed with the modern record to provide a picture of the lakes' fluctuations until the late twentieth century. The historical fluctuations of the lakes are quite similar. The most important of these are low levels during the first half of the nineteenth century, very high stands in the last decades of the nineteenth century, and, around the turn of the century, a rapid fall to twentieth century levels. This pattern is ubiquitous throughout eastern Africa and is apparent in numerous other lakes, including Victoria, Naivasha, Stefanie, Turkana, Malawi and Chilwa. Driest periods were in the 1920s or earlier and in the 1950s. Lake Tanganyika returned to extremely high stands in the 1960s and has continued to maintain relatively high stands since that time. Lake Rukwa rose to high stands during the 1980s and maintained them for several years. An analysis of rainfall variability shows that these trends are generally explained by variations in catchment rainfall. However, the lakes' responses to rainfall variability are sometimes dissimilar because Lake Rukwa is a closed basin. Our results demonstrate the complexity of the rainfall/lake-level relationships and the need to use water balance relationships in order to interpret the lakes' historical or paleo-fluctuations in terms of rainfall. 相似文献
11.
Spatial and temporal variability of winter and summer precipitation over Serbia and Montenegro 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
I. Tošić 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2004,77(1-2):47-56
Summary The main characteristics of the spatial and temporal variability of winter and summer precipitation observed at 30 stations in Serbia and Montenegro were analysed for the period 1951–2000. The rainfall series were examined spatially by means of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) and temporally by means of the Mann-Kendall test and spectral analysis. The Alexandersson test was used to detect the inhomogeneity of the data set.The EOF analysis gave three winter and summer dominant modes of variations, which explained 89.7% and 70.4% of the variance, respectively. The time series associated with the first pattern showed a decreasing trend in winter precipitation. The spectral analysis showed a 16-year oscillation for the dominant winter pattern, around a 3-year oscillation for the dominant summer pattern, and a quasi-cycle of 2.5 years for the winter third pattern. 相似文献
12.
卷云与水云的短波透射与反射特性 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7
利用矩阵算法计算了对不同太阳天顶角下不同光学厚度的卷云与水云,在4π空间内0～360o的不同方位与0～90o不同天顶角下的波长为1.39 μm太阳短波波段的透射与反射,其天顶角间隔为5.6o,方位角间隔为5.0o。可以看出两种云透射和反射辐射的差别及它们随着光学厚度变化而变化的情况。同时,将其与波长为0.55 μm的可见光波段的透射和反射进行了比较。 相似文献
13.
M. J. Salinger J. D. Bell K. Evans A. J. Hobday V. Allain K. Brander P. Dexter D. E. Harrison A. B. Hollowed B. Lee R. Stefanski 《Climatic change》2013,119(1):213-221
Several lines of evidence show that climatic variation and global warming can have a major effect on fisheries production and replenishment. To prevent overfishing and rebuild overfished stocks under changing and uncertain environmental conditions, new research partnerships between fisheries scientists and climate change experts are required. The International Workshop on Climate and Oceanic Fisheries held in Rarotonga, Cook Islands, 3–5 October 2011, brought representatives from these disciplines together to consider the effects of climate variability and change on oceanic fisheries, the tools and strategies required for identifying potential impacts on oceanic fisheries, and the priority adaptations for sustaining future harvests, especially in the Pacific Ocean. Recommendations made by the workshop included (1) development and implementation of sustainable management measures for fisheries; (2) long-term commitment to monitoring necessary to assess stock status and to conduct integrated ecosystem assessments; (3) process oriented research to evaluate the potential of marine species for adaptation to a changing ocean environment; (4) provision of improved national meteorological and hydrological services to fisheries agencies, enterprises and communities; (5) continuing communication of potential impacts and adaptation strategies to stakeholders to reduce the threats to oceanic fisheries and capitalise on opportunities; and (6) continued collaborative efforts between meteorological, oceanographic, biological and fisheries researchers and management agencies to better monitor and understand the impacts of short-term variability and longer-term change on oceanic fisheries. 相似文献
14.
In weather sciences, the two specific terms “storm” and “cyclone” frequently appear in literature and usually refer to the violent nature of a number of weather systems characterized by central low pressure, strong winds, large precipitation amounts in the form of rain, freezing rain, or snow, as well as thunder and lightning. But what is the connection between these two specific terms? In this paper, the historic evolutions of the terms “storm” and “cyclone” are reviewed from the perspective of... 相似文献
15.
为了提高雾与能见度的预报水平,对业务上常用的两种能见度诊断方案,即Stoelinga and Warner（SW）方案与Forecast Systems Laboratory（FSL）方案的改进进行预报试验,SW方案基于Gultepe方案考虑了液态水粒子数浓度对能见度的影响,FSL改进方案中利用了递减平均法对公式中用到的温度与露点温度进行订正,并用其重新计算公式中的相对湿度。基于山东省气象科学研究所逐时更新循环（hourly update cycle,HUC）业务模式输出结果,从2015—2016年选取10次雾天气过程,并详细分析了2015年11月13—14日这次雾天气过程的预报结果,比较了改进前后各方案对雾与能见度的预报效果,结果显示：在模式预报的雨水含量占总液态含水量比例较大的预报时效,改进后的SW方案对雾与能见度预报效果优于原始方案,在模式预报液态含水量接近0的预报时效,改进前后的SW方案对雾与能见度的预报效果相当;利用订正的温度与露点温度重新计算相对湿度,其平均绝对误差（mean absolute error,MAE）降低明显的预报时段,改进后的FSL方案对雾与能见度的预报效果大大提升。将两种改进后的方案相融合并进行预报试验,结果显示,综合对能见度与雾的预报效果,Combined Visibility（CVIS）方案要优于其他两种改进方案。 相似文献
16.
Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Change: Workshop Summary and Recommendations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The International Workshop on Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Climate Change
held in Ljubljana, Solvenia, from 7 to 9 October 2002 addressed a range of important issues relating to climate variability,
climate change, agriculture, and forestry including the state of agriculture and forestry and agrometeological information,
and potential adaptation strategies for agriculture and forestry to changing climate conditions and other pressures. There
is evidence that global warming over the last millennium has already resulted in increased global average annual temperature
and changes in rainfall, with the 1990s being likely the warmest decade in the Northern Hemisphere at least. During the past
century, changes in temperature patterns have, for example, had a direct impact on the number of frost days and the length
of growing seasons with significant implications for agriculture and forestry. Land cover changes, changes in global ocean
circulation and sea surface temperature patterns, and changes in the composition of the global atmosphere are leading to changes
in rainfall. These changes may be more pronounced in the tropics. For example, crop varieties grown in the Sahel may not be
able to withstand the projected warming trends and will certainly be at risk due to projected lower amounts of rainfall as
well. Seasonal to interannual climate forecasts will definitely improve in the future with a better understanding of dynamic
relationships. However, the main issue at present is how to make better use of the existing information and dispersion of
knowledge to the farm level. Direct participation by the farming communities in pilot projects on agrometeorological services
will be essential to determine the actual value of forecasts and to better identify the specific user needs. Old (visits,
extension radio) and new (internet) communication techniques, when adapted to local applications, may assist in the dissemination
of useful information to the farmers and decision makers. Some farming systems with an inherent resilience may adapt more
readily to climate pressures, making long-term adjustments to varying and changing conditions. Other systems will need interventions
for adaptation that should be more strongly supported by agrometeorological services for agricultural producers. This applies,
among others, to systems where pests and diseases play an important role. Scientists have to guide policy makers in fostering
an environment in which adaptation strategies can be effected. There is a clear need for integrating preparedness for climate
variability and climate change. In developed countries, a trend of higher yields, but with greater annual fluctuations and
changes in cropping patterns and crop calendars can be expected with changing climate scenarios. Shifts in projected cropping
patterns can be disruptive to rural societies in general. However, developed countries have the technology to adapt more readily
to the projected climate changes. In many developing countries, the present conditions of agriculture and forestry are already
marginal, due to degradation of natural resources, the use of inappropriate technologies and other stresses. For these reasons,
the ability to adapt will be more difficult in the tropics and subtropics and in countries in transition. Food security will
remain a problem in many developing countries. Nevertheless, there are many examples of traditional knowledge, indigenous
technologies and local innovations that can be used effectively as a foundation for improved farming systems. Before developing
adaptation strategies, it is essential to learn from the actual difficulties faced by farmers to cope with risk management
at the farm level. Agrometeorologists must play an important role in assisting farmers with the development of feasible strategies
to adapt to climate variability and climate change. Agrometeorologists should also advise national policy makers on the urgent
need to cope with the vulnerabilities of agriculture and forestry to climate variability and climate change. The workshop
recommendations were largely limited to adaptation. Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate variability and climate change
is of high priority for nearly all countries, but developing countries are particularly vulnerable. Effective measures to
cope with vulnerability and adaptation need to be developed at all levels. Capacity building must be integrated into adaptation
measures for sustainable agricultural development strategies. Consequently, nations must develop strategies that effectively
focus on specific regional issues to promote sustainable development. 相似文献
17.
Ozone mixing ratios observed by the Bordeaux microwave radiometer between 1995 and 2002 in an altitude range 25–75 km show diurnal variations in the mesosphere and seasonal variations in terms of annual and semi-annual oscillations (SAO) in the stratosphere and in the mesosphere. The observations with 10–15 km altitude resolution are presented and compared to photochemical and transport model results.Diurnal ozone variations are analyzed by averaging the years 1995–1997 for four representative months and six altitude levels. The photochemical models show a good agreement with the observations for altitudes higher than 50 km. Seasonal ozone variations mainly appear as an annual cycle in the middle and upper stratosphere and a semi-annual cycle in the mesosphere with amplitude and phase depending on altitude. Higher resolution (2 km) HALOE (halogen occultation experiment) ozone observations show a phase reversal of the SAO between 44 and 64 km. In HALOE data, a tendancy for an opposite water vapour cycle can be identified in the altitude range 40–60 km.Generally, the relative variations at all altitudes are well explained by the transport model (up to 54 km) and the photochemical models. Only a newly developed photochemical model (1-D) with improved time-dependent treatment of water vapour profiles and solar flux manages to reproduce fairly well the absolute values. 相似文献
18.
利用1961年-2012年山西逐日天气现象、能见度、相对湿度和日平均气温资料,采用Kendall-tau方法和相关分析法研究山西雾霾日数的时空变化特征及成因。结果表明：雾多发区在中南部,北部雾日较少。霾、烟幕日数高值区出现在以大同、太原、临汾为中心线的带状区域。季节分布来看,轻雾、雾日数峰值出现在8、9月份,谷值在5月份出现;霾和烟幕日数的峰值出现在12、1月份,谷值在8、9月份出现。近50余年以来,山西雾霾日数呈现增多趋势,雾日增加趋势较弱,60、70年代为增多趋势,进入21世纪则为减少趋势;轻雾和霾日数均为显著单调上升趋势;烟幕日数也为显著增多趋势,但表现为抛物线型,90年代后期以前为增多,之后转为下降趋势。山西霾和烟幕日数与E1Nino事件有很好的对应关系,E1Nino事件发生年往往霾和烟幕日数较多,赤道中东太平洋的海温异常通过海气相互作用,引起东亚地区上空的大气环流异常,形成利于霾和烟幕出现的天气条件。山西冬季气温偏高往往导致霾和烟幕天气的增多,气候变暖对霾和烟幕天气的影响不容置疑。 相似文献
19.
《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》（SROCC）于2019年9月在IPCC第一工作组和第二工作组第二次联合大会上得到审议通过,并得到了IPCC第51届全会接受和批准。文中主要对该报告中海洋和冰冻圈变化有关的极端事件、突变及其影响与风险的有关评估内容进行了综合分析。SROCC评估得到的最新结果显示：气候变化背景下冰冻圈变化引起的山体滑坡、雪崩和冰川洪水事件频发。海洋有关的海洋热浪频发,极端El Niño事件加强,大西洋经向翻转环流减弱。同时,沿海地区极端海平面上升,极端海浪增高,极端热带气旋影响增加。这些变化,比如海洋热浪等,是可以归因于人为增暖的。预估结果表明,海洋和冰冻圈变化引起的极端事件未来会进一步加剧。而这些变化已经影响了高山、极地以及沿海地区人群的生产和生活,以及海洋和冰冻圈的生态系统服务功能。应对这一系列变化,需要更加精准的预测和预警,包括对极端事件和突变的季节预测和年际、年代际预测,以便做好充足的准备来降低极端事件风险。同时,加强应对极端事件的科普教育和提供因地制宜的灾害重建措施等也是风险管理的重要环节。 相似文献
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该文较系统地评述了干旱与高温热浪在定义、标准与类型、地理分布、时间和强度变化特征、危害性质和程度及其影响、形成机制和产生原因、对全球气候变暖响应的表现形式和程度、监测和预测与预警方法与技术、减灾技术及应对策略和防御措施等8个方面,既对比了两者间在以上8方面的明显的差异,也指出两者间还有密不可分的内在联系,当高温天气频繁发生,大气降水量就会明显减少.高温加快了土壤的蒸散速度,加大了土壤水分和植株水分的散失,这种关系在夏季尤其显著.从而造成干旱的发生或加重严重程度. 相似文献