首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 757 毫秒
1.
Data from climatology (World Ocean Atlas) and two large scale operational ocean models (Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM), UK Met. Office and the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), US Naval Research Laboratory) are used to give initial and open boundary conditions for a northeast Atlantic implementation of the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Model System (POLCOMS). We study the effects of using the different datasets on the temperature fields and the circulation. On the continental shelf, comparisons of POLCOMS output with Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sea surface temperature data suggest that the effect of using different ocean model initial and boundary conditions is small and that, after 15 months of model time, the impact of the different initial conditions is negligible. Stronger evidence of influence is seen in the deeper oceanic regions of the domain. Volume fluxes through sections governing flow into and out of the North Sea, through the Irish Sea and along the shelf edge show that the impact of the different boundary conditions is small on the shelf but significant elsewhere. These results are contrasted with the use of climatology to assess the value of these Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment ocean model products.  相似文献   

2.
A coupled ocean–atmosphere mesoscale ensemble prediction system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory. This paper describes the components and implementation of the system and presents baseline results from coupled ensemble simulations for two tropical cyclones. The system is designed to take into account major sources of uncertainty in: (1) non-deterministic dynamics, (2) model error, and (3) initial states. The purpose of the system is to provide mesoscale ensemble forecasts for use in probabilistic products, such as reliability and frequency of occurrence, and in risk management applications. The system components include COAMPS® (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) and NCOM (Navy Coastal Ocean Model) for atmosphere and ocean forecasting and NAVDAS (NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System) and NCODA (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation) for atmosphere and ocean data assimilation. NAVDAS and NCODA are 3D-variational (3DVAR) analysis schemes. The ensembles are generated using separate applications of the Ensemble Transform (ET) technique in both the atmosphere (for moving or non-moving nests) and the ocean. The atmospheric ET is computed using wind, temperature, and moisture variables, while the oceanographic ET is derived from ocean current, temperature, and salinity variables. Estimates of analysis error covariance, which is used as a constraint in the ET, are provided by the ocean and atmosphere 3DVAR assimilation systems. The newly developed system has been successfully tested for a variety of configurations, including differing model resolution, number of members, forecast length, and moving and fixed nest options. Results from relatively coarse resolution (~27-km) ensemble simulations of Hurricanes Hanna and Ike demonstrate that the ensemble can provide valuable uncertainty information about the storm track and intensity, though the ensemble mean provides only a small amount of improved predictive skill compared to the deterministic control member.  相似文献   

3.
Nested non-assimilative simulations of the West Florida Shelf for 2004–2005 are used to quantify the impact of initial and boundary conditions provided by Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment ocean products. Simulations are nested within an optimum interpolation hindcast of the Atlantic Ocean, the initial test of the US Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation system for the Gulf of Mexico, and a global ocean hindcast that used the latter assimilation system. These simulations are compared to one that is nested in a non-assimilative Gulf of Mexico model to document the importance of assimilation in the outer model. Simulations are evaluated by comparing model results to moored Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler measurements and moored sea surface temperature time series. The choice of outer model has little influence on simulated velocity fluctuations over the inner and middle shelf where fluctuations are dominated by the deterministic wind-driven response. Improvement is documented in the representation of alongshore flow variability over the outer shelf, driven in part by the intrusion of the Loop Current and associated cyclones at the shelf edge near the Dry Tortugas. This improvement was realized in the simulation nested in the global ocean hindcast, the only outer model choice that contained a realistic representation of Loop Current transport associated with basin-scale wind-driven gyre circulation and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. For temperature, the non-assimilative outer model had a cold bias in the upper ocean that was substantially corrected in the data-assimilative outer models, leading to improved temperature representation in the simulations nested in the assimilative outer models.  相似文献   

4.
青藏高原春季积雪在南海夏季风爆发过程中的作用   总被引:7,自引:2,他引:5       下载免费PDF全文
本文应用欧洲中期预报中心(ECMWF,European Centre for Medium\|Range Weather Forecasts—ERA\|40)资料和美国国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research)资料,研究了青藏高原雪深变化对南海夏季风爆发的影响和ENSO对青藏高原降雪的影响.结果表明:(1)ECMWF的雪深资料是可信的,可以用来研究青藏高原雪深变化对南海夏季风爆发的影响;(2)青藏高原的积雪异常影响到500 hPa以上的温度异常和印度洋与大陆间的气温对比,一方面使上层的南亚高压移动速度发生变化,另一方面也影响到低层大气的运动和东西向风异常,在青藏高原少雪年,东印度洋产生西风异常和一个气旋对,而在青藏高原多雪年,东印度洋产生东风异常和一个反气旋对;(3)ENSO与青藏高原春季积雪关系密切.东太平洋SST正异常时,东印度洋和南海气压偏高,从而导致该区海陆经向压强梯度增强和西风异常.另外,此时青藏高原北部气压偏高,北风偏强,副热带锋面增强,同时,印度洋的SST偏高,为青藏高原降雪提供了水汽保障,这些都有利于青藏高原的降雪.  相似文献   

5.
A high-resolution (1/60°), three-dimensional numerical circulation model of the Cariaco Basin (Venezuela) is constructed by nesting the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) in the 1/12° global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). A new bathymetry, computed by merging DBDB2 data and in situ depth measurements using optimal interpolation, is described. This new bathymetry corrects the depth of the channels that connect the Cariaco Basin with the open ocean and which play a very important role in the basin circulation. Results from a 2004 ROMS hindcast are presented. Observations (temperature, salinity, and currents) are used to validate the model results before using the model to describe the annual cycle of the Cariaco Basin and the interactions between the basin and the open ocean. Two modes of interaction are described, the first being the meanders and eddies that travel westward with the Caribbean Current, and the second being a subsurface eastward current that flows along the north coast of South America. The circulation path within the basin is directly related to the intensity of this current. Both mechanisms described play a role in the ventilation of the basin. The present study is also an example of the feasibility of one of the objectives of GODAE (Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment): downscaling from a large-scale model to a regional model. In particular, the nesting ratio of 5 used in this work demonstrates that a high-resolution model can be successfully nested in HYCOM.  相似文献   

6.
During the Costa Concordia emergency case, regional, subregional, and relocatable ocean models have been used together with the oil spill model, MEDSLIK-II, to provide ocean currents forecasts, possible oil spill scenarios, and drifters trajectories simulations. The models results together with the evaluation of their performances are presented in this paper. In particular, we focused this work on the implementation of the Interactive Relocatable Nested Ocean Model (IRENOM), based on the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), for the Costa Concordia emergency and on its validation using drifters released in the area of the accident. It is shown that thanks to the capability of improving easily and quickly its configuration, the IRENOM results are of greater accuracy than the results achieved using regional or subregional model products. The model topography, and to the initialization procedures, and the horizontal resolution are the key model settings to be configured. Furthermore, the IRENOM currents and the MEDSLIK-II simulated trajectories showed to be sensitive to the spatial resolution of the meteorological fields used, providing higher prediction skills with higher resolution wind forcing.  相似文献   

7.
FESOM under coordinated ocean-ice reference experiment forcing   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
Characteristics of the ocean state simulated with the Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) under the normalized year forcing of Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs; Griffies et al., Ocean Model 26:1–46, 2009) are compared with those of other models participating in COREs. In contrast to these models, FESOM is run on an unstructured mesh (with resolution varying between 20 and 150 km). It is shown that the ocean state simulated by FESOM is in most cases within the spread of other models, demonstrating that the unstructured mesh technology has reached the stage when it becomes a reliable tool for studying the large-scale ocean general circulation.  相似文献   

8.
This study examines seasonal circulation, hydrography, and associated spatial variability over the inner shelf of the northern South China Sea (NSCS) using a nested-grid coastal ocean circulation model. The model external forcing consists of tides, atmospheric forcing, and open boundary conditions based on the global ocean circulation and hydrography reanalysis produced by the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean model. Five numerical experiments are conducted with different combinations of external forcing functions to examine main physical processes affecting the seasonal circulation in the study region. Model results demonstrate that the monthly mean circulation in the study region features the Guangdong Coastal Current (GCC) over coastal waters and the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) in the offshore deep waters. The GCC produced by the model flows nearly southwestward in winter months and northwestward in summer months, which agrees with previous studies. The SCSWC flows roughly northeastward and is well defined in summer months. In winter months, by comparison, the SCSWC is superseded by the southwestward strong wind-driven currents. Analysis of model results in five different experiments demonstrates that the monthly mean circulation over coastal and inner shelf waters of the NSCS can be approximated by barotropic currents forced by the southwestward monsoon winds in winter months. In summer months, by comparison, the monthly mean circulation in the study region is affected significantly by baroclinic dynamics associated with freshwater runoff from the Pearl River and advection of warm and saline waters carried by the SCSWC over the NSCS.  相似文献   

9.
We utilise a global finite-element sea ice–ocean model (FESOM), focused on the Antarctic marginal seas, to analyse projections of ice shelf basal melting in a warmer climate. Ice shelf–ocean interaction is described using a three-equation system with a diagnostic computation of temperature and salinity at the ice–ocean interface. A tetrahedral mesh with a minimumhorizontal resolution of 4 km and hybrid vertical coordinates is used. Ice shelf draft, cavity geometry, and global ocean bathymetry have been derived from the RTopo-1 data set. The model is forced with the atmospheric output from two climate models: (1) the Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM3) and (2) Max Planck Institute’s ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model. Results from experiments forced with their twentieth century output are used to evaluate the modelled present-day ocean state. Sea ice coverage is largely realistic in both simulations; modelled ice shelf basal melt rates compare well with observations in both cases, but are consistently smaller for ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Projections for future ice shelf basal melting are computed using atmospheric output for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios E1 and A1B. In simulations forced with ECHAM5 data, trends in ice shelf basal melting are small. In contrast, decreasing convection along the Antarctic coast in HadCM3 scenarios leads to a decreasing salinity on the continental shelf and to intrusions of warm deep water of open ocean origin. In the case of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), this water reaches deep into the cavity, so that basal melting increases by a factor of 4 to 6 compared to the present value of about 90 Gt/year. By the middle of the twenty-second century, FRIS becomes the dominant contributor to total ice shelf basal mass loss in these simulations. Our results indicate that the surface freshwater fluxes on the continental shelves may be crucial for the future of especially the large cold water ice shelves in the Southern Ocean.  相似文献   

10.
江文滨  林缅 《地球物理学报》2011,54(6):1679-1689
本文采用POM(Princeton Ocean Model)模式,结合多波束测量得到的高分辨率地形数据,通过网格嵌套分级计算,得到了南海北部琼西南海域近40km2研究区内的水平网格分辨率达200 m的海底流场.通过数值试验,确定了内嵌模型的最佳侧面开边界条件.计算结果表明,本文所提出超高水平分辨率嵌套模式能够模拟复杂海...  相似文献   

11.
SAR observation and model tracking of an oil spill event in coastal waters   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
Oil spills are a major contributor to marine pollution. The objective of this work is to simulate the oil spill trajectory of oil released from a pipeline leaking in the Gulf of Mexico with the GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) model. The model was developed by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) to investigate the effects of different pollutants and environmental conditions on trajectory results. Also, a Texture-Classifying Neural Network Algorithm (TCNNA) was used to delineate ocean oil slicks from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. During the simulation, ocean currents from NCOM (Navy Coastal Ocean Model) outputs and surface wind data measured by an NDBC (National Data Buoy Center) buoy are used to drive the GNOME model. The results show good agreement between the simulated trajectory of the oil spill and synchronous observations from the European ENVISAT ASAR (Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar) and the Japanese ALOS (Advanced Land Observing Satellite) PALSAR (Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar) images. Based on experience with past marine oil spills, about 63.0% of the oil will float and 18.5% of the oil will evaporate and disperse. In addition, the effects from uncertainty of ocean currents and the diffusion coefficient on the trajectory results are also studied.  相似文献   

12.
The South Florida Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (SoFLA-HYCOM) encompasses a variety of coastal regions (the broad Southwest Florida shelf, the narrow Atlantic Keys shelf, the shallow Florida Bay, and Biscayne Bay) and deep regions (the Straits of Florida), including Marine Protected Areas (the Florida Keys Marine Sanctuary and the Dry Tortugas Ecological Reserve). The presence of the strong Loop Current/Florida Current system and associated eddies connects the local and basin-wide dynamics. A multi-nested approach has been developed to ensure resolution of coastal-scale processes and proper interaction with the large scale flows. The simulations are free running and effects of data assimilation are introduced through boundary conditions derived from Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment products. The study evaluates the effects of boundary conditions on the successful hindcasting of circulation patterns by a nested model, applied on a dynamically and topographically complex shelf area. Independent (not assimilated) observations are employed for a quantitative validation of the numerical results. The discussion of the prevailing dynamics that are revealed in both modeled and observed patterns suggests the importance of topography resolution and local forcing on the inner shelf to middle shelf areas, while large scale processes are found to dominate the outer shelf flows. The results indicate that the successful hindcasting of circulation patterns in a coastal area that is characterized by complex topography and proximity to a large scale current system requires a dynamical downscaling approach, with simulations that are nested in a hierarchy of data assimilative outer models.  相似文献   

13.
A coupled ocean and boundary layer flux numerical modeling system is used to study the upper ocean response to surface heat and momentum fluxes associated with a major hurricane, namely, Hurricane Dennis (July 2005) in the Gulf of Mexico. A suite of experiments is run using this modeling system, constructed by coupling a Navy Coastal Ocean Model simulation of the Gulf of Mexico to an atmospheric flux model. The modeling system is forced by wind fields produced from satellite scatterometer and atmospheric model wind data, and by numerical weather prediction air temperature data. The experiments are initialized from a data assimilative hindcast model run and then forced by surface fluxes with no assimilation for the time during which Hurricane Dennis impacted the region. Four experiments are run to aid in the analysis: one is forced by heat and momentum fluxes, one by only momentum fluxes, one by only heat fluxes, and one with no surface forcing. An equation describing the change in the upper ocean hurricane heat potential due to the storm is developed. Analysis of the model results show that surface heat fluxes are primarily responsible for widespread reduction (0.5°–1.5°C) of sea surface temperature over the inner West Florida Shelf 100–300 km away from the storm center. Momentum fluxes are responsible for stronger surface cooling (2°C) near the center of the storm. The upper ocean heat loss near the storm center of more than 200 MJ/m2 is primarily due to the vertical flux of thermal energy between the surface layer and deep ocean. Heat loss to the atmosphere during the storm’s passage is approximately 100–150 MJ/m2. The upper ocean cooling is enhanced where the preexisting mixed layer is shallow, e.g., within a cyclonic circulation feature, although the heat flux to the atmosphere in these locations is markedly reduced.  相似文献   

14.
A complex and highly dynamical ocean region, the Agulhas Current System plays an important role in the transfer of energy, nutrients and organic material from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean. Its dynamics are not only important locally, but affect the global ocean-atmosphere system. In working towards improved ocean reanalysis and forecasting capabilities, it is important that numerical models simulate mesoscale variability accurately—especially given the scarcity of coherent observational platforms in the region. Data assimilation makes use of scarce observations, a dynamical model and their respective error statistics to estimate a new, improved model state that minimises the distance to the observations whilst preserving dynamical consistency. Qualitatively, it is unclear whether this minimisation directly translates to an improved representation of mesoscale dynamics. In this study, the impact of assimilating along-track sea-level anomaly (SLA) data into a regional Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is investigated with regard to the simulation of mesoscale eddy characteristics. We use an eddy-tracking algorithm and compare the derived eddy characteristics of an assimilated (ASSIM) and an unassimilated (FREE) simulation experiment in HYCOM with gridded satellite altimetry-derived SLA data. Using an eddy tracking algorithm, we are able to quantitatively evaluate whether assimilation updates the model state estimate such that simulated mesoscale eddy characteristics are improved. Additionally, the analysis revealed limitations in the dynamical model and the data assimilation scheme, as well as artefacts introduced from the eddy tracking scheme. With some exceptions, ASSIM yields improvements over FREE in eddy density distribution and dynamics. Notably, it was found that FREE significantly underestimates the number of eddies south of Madagascar compared to gridded altimetry, with only slight improvements introduced through assimilation, highlighting the models’ limitation in sustaining mesoscale activity in this region. Interestingly, it was found that the threshold for the maximum eddy propagation velocity in the eddy detection scheme is often exceeded when data assimilation relocates an eddy, causing the algorithm to interpret the discontinuity as eddy genesis, which directly influences the eddy count, lifetime and propagation velocity, and indirectly influences other metrics such as non-linearity. Finally, the analysis allowed us to separate eddy kinetic energy into contributions from detected mesoscale eddies and meandering currents, revealing that the assimilation of SLA has a greater impact on mesoscale eddies than on meandering currents.  相似文献   

15.
The hydrological contribution to polar motion is a major challenge in explaining the observed geodetic residual of non-atmospheric and non-oceanic excitations since hydrological models have limited input of comprehensive global direct observations. Although global terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provides a new opportunity to study the hydrological excitation of polar motion, the GRACE gridded data are subject to the post-processing de-striping algorithm, spatial gridded mapping and filter smoothing effects as well as aliasing errors. In this paper, the hydrological contributions to polar motion are investigated and evaluated at seasonal and intra-seasonal time scales using the recovered degree-2 harmonic coefficients from all GRACE spherical harmonic coefficients and hydrological models data with the same filter smoothing and recovering methods, including the Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS) model, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) model, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis products and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model (opECMWF). It is shown that GRACE is better in explaining the geodetic residual of non-atmospheric and non-oceanic polar motion excitations at the annual period, while the models give worse estimates with a larger phase shift or amplitude bias. At the semi-annual period, the GRACE estimates are also generally closer to the geodetic residual, but with some biases in phase or amplitude due mainly to some aliasing errors at near semi-annual period from geophysical models. For periods less than 1-year, the hydrological models and GRACE are generally worse in explaining the intraseasonal polar motion excitations.  相似文献   

16.
Brüning  Thorger 《Ocean Dynamics》2020,70(5):693-700
Ocean Dynamics - The numerical stability of ocean circulation models is of high significance in operational forecasting. A substantial improvement in numerical stability of the 3D-ocean model HBM...  相似文献   

17.
Problems of the variational data assimilation for the primitive equation ocean model constructed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences are considered. The model has a flexible computational structure and consists of two parts: a forward prognostic model, and its adjoint analog. The numerical algorithm for the forward and adjoint models is constructed based on the method of multicomponent splitting. The method includes splitting with respect to physical processes and space coordinates. Numerical experiments are performed with the use of the Indian Ocean and the World Ocean as examples. These numerical examples support the theoretical conclusions and demonstrate the rationality of the approach using an ocean dynamics model with an observed data assimilation procedure.  相似文献   

18.
Recently, prominent jet-like features of the ocean circulation, called striations, with a meridional scale of O(300–500 ;km) and extending for thousands of kilometers in length, have been detected in satellite and in situ observations and in high-resolution numerical models. In this paper, we study quasi-stationary striations, which are best seen in the multi-year time-averaged velocity fields. Using 1993–2002 mean dynamic ocean topography, satellite altimeter observations, and output of the Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator, the dynamics of the quasi-stationary striations in the eastern parts of the subtropical North and South Pacific are examined by assessing individual terms in the time-averaged equations of relative and potential vorticity. While non-linear effects are found to be essential in the dynamics of the striations, rejecting some linear hypotheses forwarded in the earlier studies, the relevance of the Rhines mechanism is not confirmed. Eddy flux does not act as a relative vorticity source for the striations. Using the potential vorticity (PV) diagnostics, we show that the time-mean PV is not conserved along the time-mean streamlines, and on the scale of the striations these changes in PV are largely induced by the eddy flux of layer thickness. The fact that eddy fluxes contribute to the striations’ time-mean PV budget suggests that the striations are not a kinematical artifact of time-averaging of westward-propagating eddies.  相似文献   

19.
A global ocean data assimilation system based on the ensemble optimum interpolation (EnOI) has been under development as the Chinese contribution to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment. The system uses a global ocean general circulation model, which is eddy permitting, developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In this paper, the implementation of the system is described in detail. We describe the sampling strategy to generate the stationary ensembles for EnOI. In addition, technical methods are introduced to deal with the requirement of massive memory space to hold the stationary ensembles of the global ocean. The system can assimilate observations such as satellite altimetry, sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity from Argo, XBT, Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO), and other sources in a straightforward way. As a first step, an assimilation experiment from 1997 to 2001 is carried out by assimilating the sea level anomaly (SLA) data from TOPEX/Poseidon. We evaluate the performance of the system by comparing the results with various types of observations. We find that SLA assimilation shows very positive impact on the modeled fields. The SST and sea surface height fields are clearly improved in terms of both the standard deviation and the root mean square difference. In addition, the assimilation produces some improvements in regions where mesoscale processes cannot be resolved with the horizontal resolution of this model. Comparisons with TAO profiles in the Pacific show that the temperature and salinity fields have been improved to varying degrees in the upper ocean. The biases with respect to the independent TAO profiles are reduced with a maximum magnitude of about 0.25°C and 0.1 psu for the time-averaged temperature and salinity. The improvements on temperature and salinity also lead to positive impact on the subsurface currents. The equatorial under current is enhanced in the Pacific although it is still underestimated after the assimilation.  相似文献   

20.
In order to predict the behaviour of plumes from three deep ocean outfalls for sewage off Sydney, three-dimensional numerical modelling was used. The modelling suite was driven by data generated by an oceanographic monitoring station measuring wind, ocean currents, temperature and wave characteristics. Three different modelling phases are implemented daily, a nearfield model, a hydrodynamic model and a water quality model. Model output can be used by the New South Wales Environment Protection Authority to predict water quality at ocean beaches and inform the community.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号