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1.
Global climate change and variability and its influence on Alpine climate — concepts and observations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
H. Wanner R. Rickli E. Salvisberg C. Schmutz M. Schüepp 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1997,58(3-4):221-243
Summary The paper discusses annual to decadal climate variability and change in the European Alps by utilizing the procedure of synoptic downscaling, i.e. it investigates the influence of global to continental scale synoptic structures and processes on the regional climate of the Alps. The European Alps lie to the southeast and under the right exit zone of the southwest-northeast oriented axis of the polar front jet over the North Atlantic ocean, in a transition zone between the Azores high and Icelandic low, between oceanic and continental and between Mediterranean and North Atlantic climates. Together with complex topographically induced phenomena like lee cyclogenesis, orographic precipitation, strong downslope winds and thermotopographical circulation systems, this transitional position makes climate studies in the Alps even more interesting. Only a minor correlation can be observed between global climate variability and Alpine climate. In contrast, the Alpine climate is strongly related to processes over the North Atlantic ocean and its sea ice system (e.g. it has a high correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the dynamics and position of the Icelandic low), an area with a rather low climate prediction potential.Since the early 1970's (or just after the Great Salinity Anomaly in the North Atlantic Ocean) the intensification of the wintertime westerly jet over the North Atlantic area led to a noticeable northwest-southeast mass transport in the exit area of the jet over Central Europe, leading to pressure and temperature rises and an increase in the amount of precipitation. There is a question over whether this phenomenon is a consequence of natural climate variability or the beginning of an anthropogenic climate change.With 16 Figures 相似文献
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This introduction to a special issue of Climatic Change argues that it is timely and welcome to intensify historical research into climate change and climate as factors of history. This is also already an ongoing trend in many disciplines. The article identifies two main strands in historical work on climate change, both multi-disciplinary: one that looks for it as a driver of historical change in human societies, the other that analyzes the intellectual and scientific roots of the climate system and its changes. In presenting the five papers in this special issue the introduction argues that it is becoming increasingly important to also situate “historicizing climate change” within the history of thought and practice in wider fields, as a matter of intellectual, political, and social history and theory. The five papers all serve as examples of intellectual, political, and social responses to climate-related phenomena and their consequences (ones that have manifested themselves relatively recently and are predominantly attributable to anthropogenic climate change). The historicizing work that these papers perform lies in the analysis of issues that are rising in societies related to climate change in its modern anthropogenic version. The history here is not so much about past climates, although climate change itself is always directly or indirectly present in the story, but rather about history as the social space where encounters take place and where new conditions for humans and societies and their companion species and their life worlds in natures and environments are unfolding and negotiated. With climate change as a growing phenomenon historicizing climate change in this version will become increasingly relevant. 相似文献
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AMO’s structure and climate footprint in observations and IPCC AR5 climate simulations 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This study aims to characterize the spatiotemporal features of the low frequency Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), its oceanic and atmospheric footprint and its associated hydroclimate impact. To accomplish this, we compare and evaluate the representation of AMO-related features both in observations and in historical simulations of the twentieth century climate from models participating in the IPCC’s CMIP5 project. Climate models from international leading research institutions are chosen: CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, UKMO-HadCM3 and ECHAM6/MPI-ESM-LR. Each model employed includes at least three and as many as nine ensemble members. Our analysis suggests that the four models underestimate the characteristic period of the AMO, as well as its temporal variability; this is associated with an underestimation/overestimation of spectral peaks in the 70–80 year/10–20 year range. The four models manifest the mid-latitude focus of the AMO-related SST anomalies, as well as certain features of its subsurface heat content signal. However, they are limited when it comes to simulating some of the key oceanic and atmospheric footprints of the phenomenon, such as its signature on subsurface salinity, oceanic heat content and geopotential height anomalies. Thus, it is not surprising that the models are unable to capture the majority of the associated hydroclimate impact on the neighboring continents, including underestimation of the surface warming that is linked to the positive phase of the AMO and is critical for the models to be trusted on projections of future climate and decadal predictions. 相似文献
4.
The ‘climate justice’ lens is increasingly being used in framing discussions and debates on global climate finance. A variant of such justice – distributive justice – emphasises recipient countries’ vulnerability to be an important consideration in funding allocation. The extent to which this principle is pursued in practice has been of widespread and ongoing concerns. Empirical evidence in this regard however remains inadequate and methodologically weak. This research examined the effect of recipients’ climate vulnerability on the allocation of climate funds by controlling for other commonly-identified determinants. A dynamic panel regression method based on Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) was used on a longitudinal dataset, containing approved funds for more than 100,000 projects covering three areas of climate action (mitigation, adaptation, and overlap) in 133 countries over two decades (2000–2018). Findings indicated a non-significant effect of recipients’ vulnerability on mitigation funding, but significant positive effects on adaptation and overlap fundings. ‘Most vulnerable’ countries were likely to receive higher amounts of these two types of funding than the ‘least vulnerable’ countries. All these provided evidence of distributive justice. However, the relationship between vulnerability and funding was parabolic, suggesting ‘moderately vulnerable’ countries likely to receive more funding than the ‘most vulnerable’ countries. Whilst, for mitigation funding, this observation was not a reason for concern, for adaptation and overlap fundings this was not in complete harmony with distributive justice. Paradoxically, countries with better investment readiness were likely to receive more adaptation and overlap funds. In discordance with distributive justice, countries within the Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia regions, despite their higher climatic vulnerabilities, were likely to receive significantly less adaptation and overlap fundings. Effects of vulnerability were persistent, and past funding had significant effects on current funding. These, coupled with the impact of readiness, suggested a probable Low Funding Trap for the world’s most vulnerable countries. The overarching conclusion is that, although positive changes have occurred since the 2015 Paris Agreement, considerable challenges to distributive justice remain. Significant data and methodological challenges encountered in the research and their implications are also discussed. 相似文献
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Indigenous Australians’ knowledge of weather and climate 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Although the last 200 years of colonisation has brought radical changes in economic and governance structures for thousands
of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders living in remote areas of northern Australia, many of these Indigenous people still
rely upon, and live closely connected to, their natural environment. Over millennia, living ‘on country’, many of these communities
have developed a sophisticated appreciation of their local ecosystems and the climatic patterns associated with the changes
in them. Some of this knowledge is recorded in their oral history passed down through generations, documented in seasonal
weather calendars in local languages and, to a limited degree, transcribed and translated into English. This knowledge is
still highly valued by these communities today, as it is used to direct hunting, fishing and planting as well as to inform
many seasonally dependant cultural events. In recent years, local observations have been recognised by non-Indigenous scientists
as a vital source of environmental data where few historic records exist. Similar to the way that phenological observations
in the UK and US provide baseline information on past climates, this paper suggests that Indigenous observations of seasonal
change have the potential to fill gaps in climate data for tropical northern Australia, and could also serve to inform culturally
appropriate adaptation strategies. One method of recording recent direct and indirect climate and weather observations for
the Torres Strait Islands is documented in this paper to demonstrate the currency of local observations of climate and its
variability. The paper concludes that a comprehensive, participatory programme to record Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander
knowledge of past climate patterns, and recent observations of change, would be timely and valuable for the communities themselves,
as well as contributing to a greater understanding of regional climate change that would be useful for the wider Australian
population. 相似文献
7.
Climate sensitivity is an important index that measures the relationship between the increase in greenhouse gases and the magnitude of global warming. Uncertainties in climate change projection and climate modeling are mostly related to the climate sensitivity. The climate sensitivities of coupled climate models determine the magnitudes of the projected global warming. In this paper, the authors thoroughly review the literature on climate sensitivity, and discuss issues related to climate feedback processes and the methods used in estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response (TCR), including the TCR to cumulative CO2 emissions. After presenting a summary of the sources that affect the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, the impact of climate sensitivity on climate change projection is discussed by addressing the uncertainties in 2°C warming. Challenges that call for further investigation in the research community, in particular the Chinese community, are discussed. 相似文献
8.
The 2m temperature (T2m) and precipitation from five regional climate models (RCMs), which participated in the ENSEMBLES project and were integrated at a 25-km horizontal resolution, are compared with observed climatological data from 13 stations located in the Croatian coastal zone. The twentieth century climate was simulated by forcing RCMs with identical boundary conditions from the ERA-40 reanalysis and the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate model (GCM); climate change in the twenty-first century is based on the A1B scenario and assessed from the GCM-forced RCMs’ integrations. When forced by ERA-40, most RCMs exhibit cold bias in winter which contributes to an overestimation of the T2m annual cycle amplitude and the errors in interannual variability are in all RCMs smaller than those in the climatological mean. All models underestimate observed warming trends in the period 1951–2010. The largest precipitation biases coincide with locations/seasons with small observed amounts but large precipitation amounts near high orography are relatively well reproduced. When forced by the same GCM all RCMs exhibit a warming in the cold half-year and a cooling (or weak warming) in the warm period, implying a strong impact of GCM boundary forcing. The future eastern Adriatic climate is characterised by a warming, up to +5 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century; for precipitation, no clear signal is evident in the first half of the twenty-first century, but a reduction in precipitation during summer prevails in the second half. It is argued that land-sea contrast and complex coastal configuration of the Croatian coast, i.e. multitude of island and well indented coastline, have a major impact on small-scale variability. Orography plays important role only at small number of coastal locations. We hypothesise that the parameterisations related to land surface processes and soil hydrology have relatively stronger impact on variability than orography at those locations that include a relatively large fraction of land (most coastal stations), but affecting less strongly locations at the Adriatic islands. 相似文献
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The capelin is a small pelagic fish that performs long distance migrations. It is a key species in the Barents Sea ecosystem
and its distribution is highly climate dependent. Here we use an individual based model to investigate consequences of global
warming on capelin distribution and population dynamics. The model relies on input on physics and plankton from a biophysical
ocean model, and the entire life cycle of capelin including spawning of eggs, larval drift and adult movement is simulated.
Spawning day and adult movement strategies are adapted by a genetic algorithm. Spawning has to take place in designated near-shore
spawning areas. The output generated by the model is capelin migration/distribution and population dynamics. We present simulations
with present day climate and a future climate scenario. For the present climate the model evolves a spatial distribution resembling
typical spatial dynamics of capelin with the coasts of Northern Norway and Murman as the main spawning areas. For the climate
change simulation, the capelin is predicted to shift spawning eastwards and also utilize new spawning areas along Novaya Zemlya.
There is also a shift in the adult distribution towards the north eastern part of the Barents Sea and earlier spawning associated
with the warming. 相似文献
13.
Song Feng Chang-Hoi Ho Qi Hu Robert J. Oglesby Su-Jong Jeong Baek-Min Kim 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(7-8):1359-1373
The ecosystems in the Arctic region are known to be very sensitive to climate changes. The accelerated warming for the past several decades has profoundly influenced the lives of the native populations and ecosystems in the Arctic. Given that the K?ppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classification is based on reliable variations of land-surface types (especially vegetation), this study used the K-T scheme to evaluate climate changes and their impact on vegetation for the Arctic (north of 50°N) by analyzing observations as well as model simulations for the period 1900–2099. The models include 16 fully coupled global climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment. By the end of this century, the annual-mean surface temperature averaged over Arctic land regions is projected to increase by 3.1, 4.6 and 5.3°C under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) B1, A1b, and A2 emission scenarios, respectively. Increasing temperature favors a northward expansion of temperate climate (i.e., Dc and Do in the K-T classification) and boreal oceanic climate (i.e., Eo) types into areas previously covered by boreal continental climate (i.e., Ec) and tundra; and tundra into areas occupied by permanent ice. The tundra region is projected to shrink by ?1.86?×?106?km2 (?33.0%) in B1, ?2.4?×?106?km2 (?42.6%) in A1b, and ?2.5?×?106?km2 (?44.2%) in A2 scenarios by the end of this century. The Ec climate type retreats at least 5° poleward of its present location, resulting in ?18.9, ?30.2, and ?37.1% declines in areal coverage under the B1, A1b and A2 scenarios, respectively. The temperate climate types (Dc and Do) advance and take over the area previously covered by Ec. The area covered by Dc climate expands by 4.61?×?106?km2 (84.6%) in B1, 6.88?×?106?km2 (126.4%) in A1b, and 8.16?×?106?km2 (149.6%) in A2 scenarios. The projected redistributions of K-T climate types also differ regionally. In northern Europe and Alaska, the warming may cause more rapid expansion of temperate climate types. Overall, the climate types in 25, 39.1, and 45% of the entire Arctic region are projected to change by the end of this century under the B1, A1b, and A2 scenarios, respectively. Because the K-T climate classification was constructed on the basis of vegetation types, and each K-T climate type is closely associated with certain prevalent vegetation species, the projected large shift in climate types suggests extensive broad-scale redistribution of prevalent ecoregions in the Arctic. 相似文献
14.
The language of transformational change is increasingly applied to climate policy, and particularly in climate finance. Transformational change in this context is used with respect to low-carbon development futures, with the emphasis on mitigation and GHG metrics. But, for many developing countries, climate policy is embedded in a larger context of sustainable development objectives, defined through a national process. Viewed thus, there is a potential tension between mitigation-focused transformation and nationally driven sustainable development. We explore this tension in the context of operationalizing the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which has to deal with the fundamental tension between country ownership and transformational change. In relation to climate finance, acceptance of diverse interpretations of transformation are essential conditions for avoiding risk of transformational change becoming a conditionality on development. We further draw lessons from climate governance and the development aid literature. The article examines how in the case of both the Clean Development Mechanism and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions, there has been limited success in achieving both development objectives and ‘nationally appropriate’ mitigation. The development aid literature points to process-based approaches as a possible alternative, but there are limitations to this approach.
Policy relevance
The concept of transformational change has gained prominence in climate finance. The conundrum facing the GCF is that it seeks to support transformational change in the climate realm, in a context where countries may have competing priorities. Balancing or even transcending this tension is a fundamental design challenge for the GCF. A primary focus on mitigation, particularly if metrics of performance are tied exclusively to GHG reduction, raise concerns about diluting ownership by recipient countries and evokes concerns of conditionality or worse. The literature on development assistance has explored options notably conditions on process and adequate capacity, and suggests that there are no short cuts to building domestic ownership. Actors on climate change need to avoid the risk that transformational change is perceived as, and becomes, an imposed condition. The risk that transformation change, operationalized in the context of unequal power relations, becomes an imposition on development, needs to be avoided. 相似文献
15.
《Global Environmental Change》2000,10(2):93-96
The landmark Program of Action agreed to at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo calls for a wide range of population-related policies motivated primarily by the improvement of individual well being. Currently, a funding shortfall threatens continued progress toward the Cairo goals. This shortfall risks missing an opportunity not only to improve the lives of individuals around the world, but also to reduce the environmental consequences of population growth. Recent estimates of environmental externalities to childbearing associated with global climate change indicate that climate-related returns to investments in such policies could be of the same order of magnitude as the investments themselves. Thus, continued support of the Cairo program is clearly a “win–win” strategy. 相似文献
16.
Proxy and instrumental records reflect a quasi-cyclic 50–80-year climate signal across the Northern Hemisphere, with particular presence in the North Atlantic. Modeling studies rationalize this variability in terms of intrinsic dynamics of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation influencing distribution of sea-surface-temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean; hence the name Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). By analyzing a lagged covariance structure of a network of climate indices, this study details the AMO-signal propagation throughout the Northern Hemisphere via a sequence of atmospheric and lagged oceanic teleconnections, which the authors term the “stadium wave”. Initial changes in the North Atlantic temperature anomaly associated with AMO culminate in an oppositely signed hemispheric signal about 30?years later. Furthermore, shorter-term, interannual-to-interdecadal climate variability alters character according to polarity of the stadium-wave-induced prevailing hemispheric climate regime. Ongoing research suggests mutual interaction between shorter-term variability and the stadium wave, with indication of ensuing modifications of multidecadal variability within the Atlantic sector. Results presented here support the hypothesis that AMO plays a significant role in hemispheric and, by inference, global climate variability, with implications for climate-change attribution and prediction. 相似文献
17.
Processes acting at the interface between the land surface and the atmosphere have a strong impact on the European summer climate, particularly during extreme years. These processes are to a large extent associated with soil moisture (SM). This study investigates the role of soil moisture?Catmosphere coupling for the European summer climate over the period 1959?C2006 using simulations with a regional climate model. The focus of this study is set on temperature and precipitation extremes and trends. The analysis is based on simulations performed with the regional climate model CLM, driven with ECMWF reanalysis and operational analysis data. The set of experiments consists of a control simulation (CTL) with interactive SM, and sensitivity experiments with prescribed SM: a dry and a wet run to determine the impact of extreme values of SM, as well as experiments with lowpass-filtered SM from CTL to quantify the impact of the temporal variability of SM on different time scales. Soil moisture?Cclimate interactions are found to have significant effects on temperature extremes in the experiments, and impacts on precipitation extremes are also identified. Case studies of selected major summer heat waves reveal that the intraseasonal and interannual variability of SM account for 5?C30% and 10?C40% of the simulated heat wave anomaly, respectively. For extreme precipitation events on the other hand, only the wet-day frequency is impacted in the experiments with prescribed soil moisture. Simulated trends for the past decades, which appear consistent with projected changes for the 21st century, are identified to be at least partly linked to SM-atmosphere feedbacks. 相似文献
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Angelo Rubino 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,106(3-4):473-479
Based on issues recently raised on the future of climate science, I present here a critical discussion which embraces the crucial aspects of the communication between climate scientists and laypersons, of the role confusing statements may exert on possible advancements in climate research, and of scientific priorities in climate science. I start distinguishing between different applications of climate models and identifying confusing uses of the words ??prediction?? and ??projection?? in recent discussions on climate modeling. Numerical models like those used in climate simulations are not assimilable to truly theories, nor can obtained results be considered as truly experimental evidences. Hence, it is hard to envisage the feasibility of crucial experiments through climate models. Increasing model resolution and complexity, although undoubtedly helpful for many applications related to a deeper understanding of the complex climate system and to substantial improvement of short-term forecasts, is not destined to change this fundamental limitation, to tackle the impossibility of predicting prominent climate forcings and to facilitate result comparisons against observations. Finally, as an example describing possible alternative resource allocations, I propose to devote more energy to strengthen the observational part of climate research, to focus on midterm forecasts, and to implement a new employment policy for climate scientists. In particular, through an increased and truly global in situ and remote sensing climate observing network, crucial experiments could emerge to challenge the fundamental basis of the conjecture of a great anthropogenic climate change, which, as known, is largely based on high climate sensitivities simulated by numerical models. 相似文献
20.
J. Luterbacher S. J. Koenig J. Franke G. van der Schrier E. Zorita A. Moberg J. Jacobeit P. M. Della-Marta M. Küttel E. Xoplaki D. Wheeler T. Rutishauser M. Stössel H. Wanner R. Brázdil P. Dobrovolný D. Camuffo C. Bertolin A. van Engelen F. J. Gonzalez-Rouco R. Wilson C. Pfister D. Limanówka Ø. Nordli L. Leijonhufvud J. Söderberg R. Allan M. Barriendos Rüdiger Glaser D. Riemann Z. Hao C. S. Zerefos 《Climatic change》2010,101(1-2):201-234
We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate model simulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulation and European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations. Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHO-G and HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better asses documentary data in a quantitative way. 相似文献