首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
Variations of seismic mode in the region of the Avachinsky Gulf (Kamchatka, Russia) are considered. Observed anomalies (seismic quiescence, the ring seismicity, reduction of the slope of the earthquake recurrence diagram) provide a basis to consider this region as a place of strong earthquake preparation. The Kamchatka regional catalogues of earthquakes between 1962–1995 were used in the analysis. A reduced seismicity rate is observed during 10 years in an area of 150 km × 60 km in size. During the last five years, in the vicinity of the area considered, earthquakes with M > 5 occurred three times more often than the average over thirty years. It is interpreted as ring seismicity. The block of 220 km × 220~km in size, including the quiescence zone, is characterized by a continuous decrease of the recurrence diagram slope, which has reached a minimum value for the last 33 years in this region.  相似文献   

2.
Seismic quiescence and accelerating seismic energy release are considered as possible spatio-temporal patterns of the preparation process of the 6 September 2002 Palermo, Italy, earthquake (M 5.8). The detailed properties of the quiescence are analyzed applying the RTL algorithm. The RTL algorithm is based on the analysis of the RTL prognostic parameter, which is designed in such a way that it has a negative value if, in comparison with long-term background, there is a deficiency of events in the time–space vicinity of the tested point. The RTL parameter increases if activation of seismicity takes place. The RTL algorithm identified that a seismic quiescence started from the beginning of November 2001 and reached its minimum at the end of May 2002. The Palermo 2002 earthquake occurred 2 months after the RTL parameter restored its long-term background level. The application of a log-periodic time-to-failure model gives a “predicted” (in retrospect) magnitude M=6.2 main shock on 5 May 2002.  相似文献   

3.
We test the Bowman and King [Bowman, D.D., King, G.C.P., 2001a, Accelerating seismicity and stress accumulation before large earthquakes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 (21), 4039–4042, Bowman, D.D., King, G.C.P., 2001b. Stress transfer and seismicity changes before large earthquakes. C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, 333, 591–599] Stress Accumulation model by examining the evolution of seismicity rates prior to the 1992 Landers, California earthquake. The Stress Accumulation (SA) model was developed to explain observations of accelerating seismicity preceding large earthquakes. The model proposes that accelerating seismicity sequences result from the tectonic loading of large fault structures through aseismic slip in the elasto-plastic lower crust. This loading progressively increases the stress on smaller faults within a critical region around the main structure, thereby causing the observed acceleration of precursory activity. A secondary prediction of the SA model is that the precursory seismicity rates should increase first at the edges of the critical region, with the rates gradually rising over time at closer distances to the main fault. We test this prediction by examining year-long seismicity rates between 1960 and 2004, as a function of distance from the Landers rupture. To quantify the significance of trends in the seismicity rates, we auto-correlate the data, using a range of spatial and temporal lags. We find weak evidence for increased seismicity rates propagating towards the Landers rupture, but cannot conclusively distinguish these results from those obtained for a random earthquake catalog. However, we find a strong indication of periodicity in the rate fluctuations, as well as high correlation between activity 130–170 km from Landers and seismicity rates within 50 km of the Landers rupture temporally offset 1.5–2 years. The implications of this spatio–temporal correlation will be addressed in future studies.  相似文献   

4.
An Mb = 5.1 earthquake occurred on February, 29, 1980, in the Western Pyrenees near Arudy (France). The telemetred network of the I.P.G.P., operating in this area since 1978, allowed a good localization of this earthquake (43°4.21′N, 0°24.59′W, depth 4km). During the two years preceding this earthquake the seismic activity exhibited a gradual decrease. A foreshock of magnitude 1.6 was recorded three hours before the main shock.A temporary network set up in the epicentral area a few days after the main shock permitted a precise study of the aftershock sequence. Fifty fault-plane solutions for earthquakes ranging from magnitude 1.5-4 were obtained. A complex pattern of faulting was revealed, with both strike-slip and normal faulting. However, a regional tectonic stress tensor can be proposed from a detailed investigation of the aftershock sequence. This stress tensor is in agreement with previous results in this area.  相似文献   

5.
In estimating the likelihood of an earthquake hazard for a seismically active region, information on the geometry of the potential source is important in quantifying the seismic hazard. The damage from an earthquake varies spatially and is governed by the fault geometry and lithology. As earthquake damage is amplified by guided seismic waves along fault zones, it is important to delineate the disposition of the fault zones by precisely determined hypocentral parameters. We used the double difference (DD) algorithm to relocate earthquakes in the Koyna-Warna seismic zone (KWSZ) region, with the P- and S-wave catalog data from relative arrival time pairs constituting the input. A significant improvement in the hypocentral estimates was achieved, with the epicentral errors <30 m and focal depth errors <75 m i.e. errors have been significantly reduced by an order of magnitude from the parameters determined by HYPO71. The earthquake activity defines three different fault segments. The seismogenic volume is shallower in the south by 3 km, with seismicity in the north extending to a depth of 11 km while in the south the deepest seismicity observed is at a depth of 8 km. By resolving the structure of seismicity in greater detail, we address the salient issues related to the seismotectonics of this region.  相似文献   

6.
The b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation and the standard deviate, Z, were calculated to investigate the temporal and spatial variations in seismicity patterns associated with the September 10th, 2008 (Mw?=?6.1) Qeshm earthquake. The temporal variations of b value illustrate a distinct dramatic drop preceding the Qeshm earthquake, and the spatial changes in b value highlight a zone with an abnormally low b value around the epicenter of this event. The cumulative number and Z value as a function of time show a precursory seismic quiescence preceding the 2008 Qeshm earthquake that observed for 1?year in a circle with R?=?50?km around its epicenter. The spatial distribution map of the standard deviate, Z, also exhibits an obvious precursory seismic quiescence region before the 2008 Qeshm event around the epicenter of this event. Interestingly, the precursory seismic quiescence region is approximately consistent with low b value anomaly region, and both have E–W to NE–SW trend. These two precursory anomalies took place in relatively large regions, which were possibly relevant to the preparation zone of the 2008 Qeshm event.  相似文献   

7.
We analyse the seismicity pattern including b-value in the north Sumatra-Great Nicobar region from 1976 to 2004. The analysis suggests that there were a number of significant, intermediate and short-term precursors before the magnitude 7.6 earthquake of 2 November 2002. However, they were not found to be so prominent prior to the magnitude 9.0 earthquake of 26 December 2004 though downward migration of activity and a 50-day short-term quiescence was observed before the event. The various precursors identified include post-seismic and intermediate-term quiescence of 13 and 10 years respectively, between the 1976 (magnitude 6.3) and 2002 earthquakes with two years (1990–1991) of increase in background seismicity; renewed seismicity, downward migration of seismic activity and foreshocks in 2002, just before the mainshock. Spatial variation in b-value with time indicates precursory changes in the form of high b-value zone near the epicenter preceding the mainshocks of 2004 and 2002 and temporal rise in b-value in the epicentral area before the 2002 earthquake.  相似文献   

8.
The advent of high-resolution digital seismic recording and advances in computer technology enable the combination of traditional regional seismic network observations with direct seismogram modeling to improve estimates of small earthquake faulting geometry, depth, and size. We illustrate a combined modeling approach using observations from three earthquakes that occurred within the environs of the New Madrid Seismic Zone: two Missouri earthquakes from September 26, 1990 and May 4, 1991; and the southern Illinois earthquake of February 5, 1994. We also re-examine the faulting geometry for two events from the 1960s that are inconsistent with the current estimate of the regional stress field. Based on direct modeling of the long-period seismograms associated with these events, we revise earlier estimates of the earthquake parameters for the March 3, 1963 and July 21, 1967 Missouri earthquakes. Comparing the new and revised results with existing earthquake mechanisms in the region, we find that tension-axes are generally aligned in a N-S to NW-SE direction, while the compression-axes trend in a NE to E direction. An interesting exception to this pattern are the March 3, 1963 and two nearby earthquakes that lie within a well-defined 30-km long left step in seismicity near New Madrid.  相似文献   

9.
Mount Erebus is an active volcano in Antarctica located on Ross Island. A convecting lava lake occupies the summit crater of Mt. Erebus. Since December 1980 the seismic activity of Mt. Erebus has been continuously monitored using a radio-telemetered network of six seismic stations. The seismic activity observed by the Ross Island network during the 1982–1983 field season shows that: (1)Strombolian eruptions occur frequently at the Erebus summit lava lake at rates of 2–5 per day; (2)centrally located earthquakes map out a nearly vertical, narrow conduit system beneath the lava lake; (3)there are other source regions of seismicity on Ross Island, well removed from Mt. Erebus proper. An intense earthquake swarm recorded in October 1982 near Abbott Peak, 10 km northwest of the summit of Mt. Erebus, and volcanic tremor accompanying the swarm, may have been associated with new dike emplacement at depth.  相似文献   

10.
We studied the temporal behavior of the background shallow seismicity rate in 700 circular areas across inland Japan. To search for and test the significance of the possible rate changes in background seismicity, we developed an efficient computational method that applies the space–time ETAS model proposed by Ogata in 1998 to the areas. Also, we conducted Monte Carlo tests using a simulated catalog to validate the model we applied. Our first finding was that the activation anomalies were found so frequently that the constant background seismicity hypothesis may not be appropriate and/or the triggered event model with constraints on the parameters may not adequately describe the observed seismicity. However, quiescence occasionally occurs merely by chance. Another outcome of our study was that we could automatically find several anomalous background seismicity rate changes associated with the occurrence of large earthquakes. Very significant seismic activation was found before the M6.1 Mt. Iwate earthquake of 1998. Also, possible seismic quiescence was found in an area 150 km southwest of the focal region of the M7.3 Western Tottori earthquake of 2000. The seismicity rate in the area recovered after the mainshock.  相似文献   

11.
Yih-Min Wu  Chien-chih Chen   《Tectonophysics》2007,429(1-2):125-132
We in this study have calculated the standard normal deviate Z-value to investigate the variations in seismicity patterns in the Taiwan region before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake. We have found that the areas with relatively high seismicity in the eastern Taiwan became abnormally quiet before the Chi-Chi earthquake while the area in the central Taiwan with relatively low seismicity showed unusually active. Such a spatially changing pattern in seismicity strikingly demonstrates the phenomenon of “seismic reversal,” and we here thus present a complete, representative cycle of “seismic reversal” embedding in the changes of seismicity patterns before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake.  相似文献   

12.
Short term spatial and temporal variations in seismicity prior to the three sequences of earthquakes of mb 5.8 of the Burma—Szechwan region are studied. Six years (1971–1976) of ISC seismicity data, as reported in the Regional Catalogue of Earthquakes, are considered. During the period, six earthquakes of body wave magnitude mb 5.8 occurred in four sequences. Of these, three sequences are preceded by swarm activity in the epicentral regions. Evison (1977b) suggested that the swarm before the sequences of large shocks is a possible long-term precursor. He derived the conclusion by analyzing earthquakes in New Zealand and California. The analysis of the seismicity data for the region under investigation supports Evison's view and suggests that a relation between swarms and sequences of large events exists. The precursory time period (i.e. the time from beginning of the swarm to the main shock) for the Szechwan earthquakes of mb = 5.9 (Feb. 6, 1973) and mb = 5.8 (May 10, 1974) and the Burma earthquake of mb = 6.2 (Aug. 12, 1976) are 305, 317 and 440 days, respectively.  相似文献   

13.
Some 455 events (mb ⩾ 4.5) in the Indo-Myanmar subduction zone are compiled using the ISC/EHB/NEIC catalogues (1964–2011) for a systematic study of seismic precursors, b-value and swarm activity. Temporal variation of b-value is studied using the maximum likelihood method beside CUSUM algorithm. The b-values vary from 0.95 to 1.4 for the deeper (depth ⩾60 km) earthquakes, and from 0.85 to 1.3 for the shallower (depth <60 km) earthquakes. A sudden drop in the b-value, from 1.4 to 0.9, prior to the occurrence of larger earthquake(s) at the deeper depth is observed. It is also noted that the CUSUM gradient reversed before the occurrence of larger earthquakes. We further examined the seismicity pattern for the period 1988–1995 within a radius of 150 km around the epicentre (latitude: 24.96°N; longitude: 95.30°E) of a deeper event M 6.3 of May 6, 1995 in this subduction zone. A precursory swarm during January 1989 to July 1992 and quiescence during August 1992 to April 1995 are identified before this large earthquake. These observations are encouraging to monitor seismic precursors for the deeper events in this subduction zone.  相似文献   

14.
The earthquake of 6 October 1987 (M = 6.6), which occurred near the Shipunsky Cape, Kamchatka, was the largest crustal event in the vicinity of the main city of Kamchatka — Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky — during the last three decades. It was followed by numerous aftershocks. This earthquake allowed us to test the effectiveness of the seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka, including the seismological, geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys. The seismic survey provided the location and source nature of the main shock and aftershocks and the seismic environment of the main shock. The geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys have yielded data on the response to earthquakes of the Earth's surface deformations, water level, and chemical elements concentration in the underground water. As a result, the following data were obtained:

u

  • The earthquake of 6 October had a seismic moment 4–10 E18 Nm, thrust type of faulting and the source volume of 20 × 20 × 10 km3. The maximum intensity was VI–VII (MSK-64 scale) and maximum acceleration 88 cm/s2.
  • Before this event, a relative increase in the number of the upper mantle (depth more than 100 km) moderate magnitude earthquakes during 5 years and a one-year period of seismic quiescence for small shallow earthquakes, were recognized. Significant anomalies in HCO3 and H3BO3 concentrations in the underground waters were observed in the wells a week before the main shock.
    •   相似文献   

    15.
    基于集集强震群序列地震特征的地震追踪预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
    郑魁香  赵汝仁 《地学前缘》2002,9(2):493-498
    分析集集强震群前余震序列的 7年 (1993/ 0 9/ 2 1— 2 0 0 0 / 0 9/ 2 0 )中震级规模在M =3 0以上的地震目录 ,可以找到前震类型、孕震空区特征、孕震条带特征、前震丛集性活动与信号震特征、主震前平静以及余震序列的二次余震等至少 6项清楚的地震序列特征。利用已发展出的年度强震趋势分析步骤的经验 ,佐以依据地震序列特征进一步加以追踪的观念 ,以集集地震序列分析为例 ,试图将地震趋势分析由年的时间尺度 ,追踪到更短的月的时间范围 ;并尝试建立台湾地区西部地震带浅源强震的追踪分析步骤 ,并为以测震学为基础的地震预测提供逼近短临时间尺度的分析方法。  相似文献   

    16.
    On 24 March 1970 an earthquake of magnitude ML 6.7 took place in the eastern Canning Basin. The earthquake was unusual because it occurred in a region where no previous earthquake had been reported and where there was no evidence of recent tectonic activity. First motion results indicate a thrusting type focal mechanism with the pressure axis approximately northeast‐southwest and dipping about 24° to the southwest. The main shock was followed, over the next two years, by many earthquakes in a zone covering 140 km by 20 km. The longitudinal axis of this zone is approximately parallel to the north‐northwest striking nodal plane determined from the first motion results, and to the trend of intrabasin faulting.

    It is suggested that continental crust may be sensitive to small changes in stress pattern and consequently seismic activity may be interrelated over large distances.  相似文献   

    17.
    The Burmese Arc seismic activity is not uniform for its ∼ 1100 km length; only the Northern Burmese Arc (NBA) is intensely active. Six large earthquakes in the magnitude range 6.1–7.4 have originated from the NBA Benioff zone between 1954–2011, within an area of 200 × 300 km2 where the Indian plate subducts eastward to depths beyond 200 km below the Burma plate. An analysis on seismogenesis of this interplate region suggests that while the subducting lithosphere is characterized by profuse seismicity, seismicity in the overriding plate is rather few. Large earthquakes occurring in the overriding plate are associated with the backarc Shan-Sagaing Fault (SSF) further east. The forecasting performance of the Benioff zone earthquakes in NBA as forerunner is analysed here by: (i) spatial earthquake clustering, (ii) seismic cycles and their temporal quiescence and (iii) the characteristic temporal b-value changes. Three such clusters (C1–C3) are identified from NBA Benioff Zones I & II that are capable of generating earthquakes in the magnitude ranges of 7.38 to 7.93. Seismic cycles evidenced for the Zone I displayed distinct quiescence (Q1, Q2 and Q3) prior to the 6th August 1988 (M 6.6) earthquake. Similar cycles were used to forecast an earthquake (Dasgupta et al. 2010) to come from the Zone I (cluster C1); which, actually struck on 4 February 2011 (M 6.3). The preparatory activity for an event has already been set in the Zone II and we speculate its occurrence as a large event (M > 6.0) possibly within the year 2012, somewhere close to cluster C3. Temporal analysis of b-value indicates a rise before an ensuing large earthquake.  相似文献   

    18.
    Characteristics of the seismicity in depth ranges 0–33 and 34–70 km before ten large and great (M w = 7.0−9.0) earthquakes of 2000–2008 in the Sumatra region are studied, as are those in the seismic gap zones where no large earthquakes have occurred since at least 1935. Ring seismicity structures are revealed in both depth ranges. It is shown that the epicenters of the main seismic events lie, as a rule, close to regions of overlap or in close proximity to “shallow” and “deep” rings. Correlation dependences of ring sizes and threshold earthquakes magnitudes on energy of the main seismic event in the ring seismicity regions are obtained. Identification of ring structures in the seismic gap zones (in the regions of Central and South Sumatra) suggests active processes of large earthquake preparation proceed in the region. The probable magnitudes of imminent seismic events are estimated from the data on the seismicity ring sizes.  相似文献   

    19.
    A moderate (M 5) earthquake struck the northeastern United Arab Emirates (UAE) and northern Oman on March 11, 2002. The event was felt over a wide area of the northern Emirates and was accompanied by smaller (felt) events before and after the March 11 main shock. The event was large enough to be detected and located by global networks at teleseismic distances. We estimated focal mechanism and depth from broadband complete regional waveform modeling. We report a normal mechanism with a slight right-lateral strike-slip component consistent with the large-scale tectonics. The normal component suggests relaxation of obducted crust of the Semail ophiolite (specifically, the Khor Fakkan Block) while the right-lateral strike-slip component of the mechanism is consistent with shear across the Oman Line. Felt earthquakes are rare in the region, however no regional seismic network exists in the UAE to determine local seismicity. This event offers a unique opportunity to study the active tectonics of the region as well as inform future studies of seismic hazard in the UAE and northern Oman.  相似文献   

    20.
    福建仙游位于福建省东南沿海中部,其周边地区历史地震活动较平静,属于弱震区。但自从该地区的金钟水库于2010年5月下闸蓄水后,库区附近的地震活动性随之增强。为深入了解该地区的地震活动性、地震分布特征以及寻找隐伏断层,利用中国地震局提供的地震初至震相数据,使用双差定位方法对仙游地区近10年发生的地震进行重定位,获得了更为精确的震源位置,并根据重定位结果模拟深部断裂,寻找隐伏断层。结果显示：(1)重定位后的震源位置更加集中,按照发震时间可分为4个活动区,主要沿沙县—南日岛的次级断裂石苍断裂两侧北西向线性分布。(2)重定位后仙游震群的震源深度主要为8～11 km。石苍断裂左侧地震条带震源深度为6～12 km;右侧地震条带呈现明显的分层现象,上层西北侧地震较为分散,东南侧地震分布较紧凑,震源深度同左侧一样为6～12 km,而下层地震较少,震源深度为14～23 km。(3)根据重定位后的震源位置,利用奇异值分解法拟合得到三个深部断层面,其倾向均为南西向,走向为北西向,与石苍断裂和潼关断裂的倾向和走向一致。结合前人研究成果和本研究结果,推测石苍断裂并不是主发震断层,而是其两侧存在的深部断裂(高倾角隐...  相似文献   

    设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

    Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号