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1.
ABSTRACT Understanding of rainfall–runoff model performance under non-stationary hydroclimatic conditions is limited. This study compared lumped (IHACRES), semi-distributed (HEC-HMS) and fully-distributed (SWATgrid) hydrological models to determine which most realistically simulates runoff in catchments where non-stationarity in rainfall–runoff relationships exists. The models were calibrated and validated under different hydroclimatic conditions (Average, Wet and Dry) for two heterogeneous catchments in southeast Australia (SEA). SWATgrid realistically simulates runoff in the smaller catchment under most hydroclimatic conditions but fails when the model is calibrated in Dry conditions and validated in Wet. All three models perform poorly in the larger catchment irrespective of hydroclimatic conditions. This highlights the need for more research aimed at improving the ability of hydrological models to realistically incorporate the physical processes causing non-stationarity in rainfall–runoff relationships. Although the study is focussed on SEA, the insights gained are useful for all regions which experience large hydroclimatic variability and multi-year/decadal droughts. 相似文献
2.
AbstractThis article addresses the critical need for a better quantitative understanding of how water resources from the Hérault River catchment in France have been influenced by climate variability and the increasing pressure of human activity over the last 50 years. A method is proposed for assessing the relative impacts of climate and growing water demand on the decrease in discharge observed at various gauging stations in the periods 1961–1980 and 1981–2010. An annual water balance at the basin scale was calculated first, taking into account precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, water withdrawals and water discharge. Next, the evolution of the seasonal variability in hydroclimatic conditions and water withdrawals was studied. The catchment was then divided into zones according to the main geographical characteristics to investigate the heterogeneity of the climatic and human dynamics. This delimitation took into account the distribution of climate, topography, lithology, land cover and water uses, as well as the availability of discharge series. At the area scale, annual water balances were calculated to understand the internal changes that occurred in the catchment between both past periods. The decrease in runoff can be explained by the decrease in winter precipitation in the upstream areas and by the increase during summer in both water withdrawals and evapotranspiration in the downstream areas, mainly due to the increase in temperature. Thus, water stress increased in summer by 35%. This work is the first step of a larger research project to assess possible future changes in the capacity to satisfy water demand in the Hérault River catchment, using a model that combines hydrological processes and water demand.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz 相似文献
3.
ABSTRACTWe examine the applicability of predicting the daily flow–duration curve (FDC) using mean monthly runoff represented in its stochastic form (MM_FDC) to aid in predictions in ungauged basins, using long-term hydroclimatic data at 73 catchments of humid climate, in the eastern USA. The analysis uses soil hydrological properties, soil moisture storage capacity and the predominant runoff generation mechanism. The results show that MM_FDC did not distinguish the shapes of the upper and lower thirds of the FDC. The upper third is where the precipitation pattern and the antecedent moisture conditions are dominant, while the lower third is where drought-induced low flows and the evapotranspiration effect are prevalent. It is possible to use the MM_FDC to predict the middle third of the FDC (exceedence probabilities between 33% and 66%). The method is constrained by the catchment flow variability (slope of FDC), which changes in accordance with landscape properties and the predominant runoff generation mechanism. 相似文献
4.
AbstractThe first objective of this paper is to analyse the trends and change points in the hydroclimatic time series of five representative sub-catchments of the Macta basin, which lies in western Algeria. The second objective is to quantify the role of climate on the trends observed in annual flow time series. This is achieved using hydrological modelling at the multi-annual time step using the Schreiber formulation. The results showed no significant trends on annual rainfall in the 1975–2005 period, a significant increase of temperature and different flow responses to the latter, depending on the catchment considered. Two out of five catchments considered presented a significant flow decrease in the 1975–2005 period with a change point at the beginning of the 1990s. Modelling results suggest that the increase of air temperature is not the sole factor explaining the decrease of annual flow time series in these two catchments. 相似文献
5.
ABSTRACTEvapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most important components in the hydrological cycle, and a key variable in hydrological modelling and water resources management. However, understanding the impacts of spatial variability in ET and the appropriate scale at which ET data should be incorporated into hydrological models, particularly at the regional scale, is often overlooked. This is in contrast to dealing with the spatial variability in rainfall data where existing guidance is widely available. This paper assesses the impacts of scale on the estimation of reference ET (ETo) by comparing data from individual weather stations against values derived from three national datasets, at varying resolutions. These include the UK Climate Impacts Programme 50 km climatology (UKCP50), the UK Met Office 5 km climatology (UKMO5) and the regional values published in the Agricultural Climate of England and Wales (ACEW). The national datasets were compared against the individual weather station data and the UKMO5 was shown to provide the best estimate of ETo at a given site. The potential impacts on catchment modelling were then considered by mapping variance in ETo to show how geographical location and catchment size can have a major impact, with small lowland catchments having much higher variance than those with much larger areas or in the uplands. Some important implications for catchment hydrological modelling are highlighted.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor L. Ruiz 相似文献
6.
AbstractTransfer function models of the rainfall–runoff relationship with various complexities are developed to investigate the hydrological behaviour of a tropical peat catchment that has undergone continuous drainage for a long time. The study reveals that a linear transfer function model of order one and noise term of ARIMA (1,0,0) best represents the monthly rainfall–runoff relationship of a drained peat catchment. The best-fitted transfer function model is capable of illustrating the cumulative hydrological effects of the catchment when subjected to drainage. Transfer function models of daily rainfall–runoff relationships for each year of the period 1983–1993 are also developed to decipher the changes in hydrological behaviour of the catchment due to drainage. The results show that the amount of rain water temporarily stored in the peat soil decreased and the catchment has become more responsive to rainfall over the study period.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. HughesCitation Katimon, A., Shahid, S., Abd Wahab, A.K., and Shabri, A., 2013. Hydrological behaviour of a drained agricultural peat catchment in the tropics. 2: Time series transfer function modelling approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1310–1325. 相似文献
7.
Sixteen small catchments in the Maroondah region of Victoria, Australia were analysed using rainfall, temperature and streamflow time series with a rainfall–runoff model whose parameters efficiently characterize the hydrological response of a catchment. A set of catchment attributes for each of these catchments was then compared with the associated set of hydrological response characteristics of the catchments as estimated by the model. The time constant governing quickflow recession of streamflow (τq) was related to the drainage network and catchment area. The time constant governing slowflow recession of streamflow (τs) was related to the slope and shape of the catchment. The parameter governing evapotranspirative losses ( f ) was related to catchment gradient and vegetative water use. Forestry activities in the catchments changed evapotranspirative losses and thus total volume of streamflow, but did not affect the rate of streamflow recession. 相似文献
8.
Integrated dynamic water and chloride balance models with a catchment‐scale hydrological model (PRMS) are used to investigate the response of a terminal tropical lake, Lake Abiyata, to climate variability and water use practices in its catchment. The hydrological model is used to investigate the response of the catchment to different climate and land‐use change scenarios that are incorporated into the lake model. Lake depth–area–volume relationships were established from lake bathymetries. Missing data in the time series were filled using statistical regression techniques. Based on mean monthly data, the lake water balance model produced a good agreement between the simulated and observed levels of Lake Abiyata for the period 1968–83. From 1984 onwards the simulated lake level is overestimated with respect to the observed one, while the chloride concentration is largely underestimated. This discrepancy is attributed to human use of water from the influent rivers or directly from the lake. The simulated lake level and chloride concentration are in better agreement with observed values (r2 = 0·96) when human water use for irrigation and salt exploitation are included in the model. A comparison of the simulation with and without human consumption indicates that climate variability controls the interannual fluctuations and that the human water use affects the equilibrium of the system by strongly reducing the lake level. Sensitivity analysis based on a mean climatic year showed that, after prolonged mean climatic conditions, Lake Abiyata reacts more rapidly to an abrupt shift to wetter conditions than to dry conditions. This study shows the significant sensitivity of the level and salinity of the terminal Lake Abiyata to small changes in climate or land use, making it a very good ‘recorder’ of environmental changes that may occur in the catchment at different time scales. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
G. Ravazzani D. Bocchiola B. Groppelli A. Soncini M.C. Rulli F. Colombo 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1013-1016
AbstractFlood frequency estimation is crucial in both engineering practice and hydrological research. Regional analysis of flood peak discharges is used for more accurate estimates of flood quantiles in ungauged or poorly gauged catchments. This is based on the identification of homogeneous zones, where the probability distribution of annual maximum peak flows is invariant, except for a scale factor represented by an index flood. The numerous applications of this method have highlighted obtaining accurate estimates of index flood as a critical step, especially in ungauged or poorly gauged sections, where direct estimation by sample mean of annual flood series (AFS) is not possible, or inaccurate. Therein indirect methods have to be used. Most indirect methods are based upon empirical relationships that link index flood to hydrological, climatological and morphological catchment characteristics, developed by means of multi-regression analysis, or simplified lumped representation of rainfall–runoff processes. The limits of these approaches are increasingly evident as the size and spatial variability of the catchment increases. In these cases, the use of a spatially-distributed, physically-based hydrological model, and time continuous simulation of discharge can improve estimation of the index flood. This work presents an application of the FEST-WB model for the reconstruction of 29 years of hourly streamflows for an Alpine snow-fed catchment in northern Italy, to be used for index flood estimation. To extend the length of the simulated discharge time series, meteorological forcings given by daily precipitation and temperature at ground automatic weather stations are disaggregated hourly, and then fed to FEST-WB. The accuracy of the method in estimating index flood depending upon length of the simulated series is discussed, and suggestions for use of the methodology provided.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献
10.
Abstract Hydrological models are commonly used to perform real-time runoff forecasting for flood warning. Their application requires catchment characteristics and precipitation series that are not always available. An alternative approach is nonparametric modelling based only on runoff series. However, the following questions arise: Can nonparametric models show reliable forecasting? Can they perform as reliably as hydrological models? We performed probabilistic forecasting one, two and three hours ahead for a runoff series, with the aim of ascribing a probability density function to predicted discharge using time series analysis based on stochastic dynamics theory. The derived dynamic terms were compared to a hydrological model, LARSIM. Our procedure was able to forecast within 95% confidence interval 1-, 2- and 3-h ahead discharge probability functions with about 1.40 m3/s of range and relative errors (%) in the range [–30; 30]. The LARSIM model and the best nonparametric approaches gave similar results, but the range of relative errors was larger for the nonparametric approaches. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor K. Hamed Citation Costa, A.C., Bronstert, A. and Kneis, D., 2012. Probabilistic flood forecasting for a mountainous headwater catchment using a nonparametric stochastic dynamic approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 10–25. 相似文献
11.
AbstractHydrological data of a drained tropical peat catchment have been analysed through conventional quantitative hydrological approaches to characterize its hydrological behaviours and changes due to continuous drainage for a long period. The results show that the hydrology of the catchment is extremely dynamic and the catchment is flashy in nature. A decreasing trend in peak flow amount and an increasing trend in baseflow amount was observed in the catchment, indicating that continuous drainage has reduced the risk of both flooding and water scarcity in the catchment. Correlation analysis among rainfall, runoff and groundwater table reveals that saturation excess-near surface flow is the dominant mechanism responsible for rapid runoff generation in the catchment. Therefore, any physical alterations or disturbances to the upper part of the peat profile would definitely affect the overall hydrological behaviour of the peat catchment.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. HughesCitation Katimon, A., Shahid, S., Abd Wahab, A.K., and Ali, M.H., 2013. Hydrological behaviour of a drained agricultural peat catchment in the tropics. Part 1: Rainfall, runoff and water table relationships. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1297–1309. 相似文献
12.
AbstractWe evaluate flood magnitude and frequency trends across the Mid-Atlantic USA at stream gauges selected for long record lengths and climate sensitivity, and find field significant increases. Fifty-three of 75 study gauges show upward trends in annual flood magnitude, with 12 showing increases at p < 0.05. We investigate trends in flood frequency using partial duration series data and document upward trends at 75% of gauges, with 27% increasing at p < 0.05. Many study gauges show evidence for step increases in flood magnitude and/or frequency around 1970. Expanding our study area to include New England, we find evidence for lagged positive relationships between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation phase and flood magnitude and frequency. Our results suggest hydroclimatic changes in regional flood response that are related to a combination of factors, including cyclic atmospheric variability and secular trends related to climate warming affecting both antecedent conditions and event-scale processes.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor H. Lins 相似文献
13.
Dragoslav Banjak 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):562-575
Abstract The spatial position of the Mu?nica River catchment in the Dinaric Karst results in specific conditions of the drainage, distribution and chemical characteristics of the surface water and groundwater. This catchment is mountainous, located between 930 and 1985 m above sea level. The chemical characteristics of the waters are strongly dependent on the local lithological composition and the precipitation regime. The dominant cations are Ca2+ and Mg2+, and anions HCO3 - and SO4 2-. The surface water is characterized by low and medium mineralization, with resultant soft, medium-hard and very-hard total hardness levels. The groundwater is more mineralized than the surface water. Gacko Town and its associated thermal power plant, Gacko 1, which are located in the southern part of the Mu?nica River catchment, have no modern facilities for sewage and wastewater transport or treatment. In order to prevent further water quality deterioration and to enable its sustainable use, it is recommended to ensure adequate protection measures in the catchment area. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Faye Citation Banjak, D. and Nikoli?, J., 2012. Hydrochemical characteristics and water quality of the Mu?nica River catchment, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 562–575. 相似文献
14.
Jan Kocum Filip Oulehle Bohumír Janský František Bůzek Jakub Hruška Lukáš Vlček 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(14):2579-2589
ABSTRACTA geochemical approach using stable oxygen isotopes was used to understand streamflow generation processes in the highly peaty catchment of the Rokytka Brook in the headwaters of the Vltava River, Czech Republic. The contribution of water from peat bog areas to the total surface runoff was assessed using a hydrological time series, as well as geochemical, hydrochemical and isotope-hydrological approaches for unit hydrogram separation by means of anion deficiency. Using data from the hydrological year 2008, the role of an existing peat bog in the runoff formation dynamics of the Rokytka Brook catchment was determined, and the hydrological cycle was described and assessed using stable 18O/16O isotopes. The research findings strongly support the fact that peatland areas within the studied catchment do not significantly communicate hydraulically with surface streams, and their hydrological function in this region is insignificant.
Editor M. C. Acreman; Associate editor not assigned 相似文献
15.
Abstract The hydrological response of a small agroforestry catchment in northwest Spain (Corbeira catchment, 16 km2) is analysed, with particular focus on rainfall events. Fifty-four rainfall–runoff events, from December 2004 to September 2007, were used to analyse the principal hydrological patterns and show which factors best explain the hydrological response. The nonlinearity between rainfall and runoff showed that the variability in the hydrological response of the catchment was linked to the seasonal dynamics of the rainfall and, to a lesser extent, to evapotranspiration. The runoff coefficient, estimated as the ratio between direct runoff and rainfall volume, on an event basis, was analysed as a function of rainfall characteristics (amount and intensity) and the initial catchment state conditions prior to an event, such as pre-event baseflow and antecedent rainfall index. The results revealed that the hydrological response depends both on the soil humidity conditions at the start of the event and on rainfall amount, whereas rainfall intensity presented only a significant correlation with discharge increment. The antecedent conditions seem to be a key point in runoff production, and they explain much of the response. The hydrographs are characterized by a steep rising limb, a relatively narrow peak discharge and slow recession limb. These data and the observations suggest that the subsurface flow is the dominant runoff process. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor T. Wagener Citation Rodríguez-Blanco, M.L., Taboada-Castro, M.M. and Taboada-Castro, M.T., 2012. Rainfall–runoff response and event-based runoff coefficients in a humid area (northwest Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 445–459. 相似文献
16.
Boris F. Ochoa‐Tocachi Wouter Buytaert Bert De Bièvre Rolando Célleri Patricio Crespo Marcos Villacís Carlos A. Llerena Luis Acosta Mauricio Villazón Mario Guallpa Junior Gil‐Ríos Paola Fuentes Dimas Olaya Paúl Viñas Gerver Rojas Sandro Arias 《水文研究》2016,30(22):4074-4089
Changes in land use and land cover are major drivers of hydrological alteration in the tropical Andes. However, quantifying their impacts is fraught with difficulties because of the extreme diversity in meteorological boundary conditions, which contrasts strongly with the lack of knowledge about local hydrological processes. Although local studies have reduced data scarcity in certain regions, the complexity of the tropical Andes poses a big challenge to regional hydrological prediction. This study analyses data generated from a participatory monitoring network of 25 headwater catchments covering three of the major Andean biomes (páramo, jalca and puna) and links their hydrological responses to main types of human interventions (cultivation, afforestation and grazing). A paired catchment setup was implemented to evaluate the impacts of change using a ‘trading space‐for‐time’ approach. Catchments were selected based on regional representativeness and contrasting land use types. Precipitation and discharge have been monitored and analysed at high temporal resolution for a time period between 1 and 5 years. The observed catchment responses clearly reflect the extraordinarily wide spectrum of hydrological processes of the tropical Andes. They range from perennially humid páramos in Ecuador and northern Peru with extremely large specific discharge and baseflows, to highly seasonal, flashy catchments in the drier punas of southern Peru and Bolivia. The impacts of land use are similarly diverse and their magnitudes are a function of catchment properties, original and replacement vegetation and management type. Cultivation and afforestation consistently affect the entire range of discharges, particularly low flows. The impacts of grazing are more variable but have the largest effect on the catchment hydrological regulation. Overall, anthropogenic interventions result in increased streamflow variability and significant reductions in catchment regulation capacity and water yield, irrespective of the hydrological properties of the original biome. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Hydrological Processes. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 相似文献
17.
AbstractThe combined analysis of precipitation and water scarcity was done with the use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), developed as a monthly, two-variable SPI-SRI indicator to identify different classes of hydrometeorological conditions. Stochastic analysis of a long-term time series (1966–2005) of monthly SPI-SRI indicator values was performed using a first-order Markov chain model. This provided characteristics of regional features of drought formation, evolution and persistence, as well as tools for statistical long-term drought hazard prediction. The study was carried out on two subbasins of the Odra River (Poland) of different orography and land use: the mountainous Nysa K?odzka basin and the lowland, agricultural Prosna basin. Classification obtained with the SPI-SRI indicator was compared with the output from the NIZOWKA model that provided identification of hydrological drought events including drought duration and deficit volume. Severe and long-duration droughts corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 3 (dry meteorological and dry hydrological), while severe but short-term droughts (lasting less than 30 days) corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 4 (wet meteorological and dry hydrological). The results confirm that, in Poland, meteorologically dry conditions often shift to hydrologically dry conditions within the same month, droughts rarely last longer than 2 months and two separate drought events can be observed within the same year. 相似文献
18.
Projecting climate change impacts on stream flow regimes with tracer‐aided runoff models ‐ preliminary assessment of heterogeneity at the mesoscale 
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下载免费PDF全文 The northern mid‐high latitudes form a region that is sensitive to climate change, and many areas already have seen – or are projected to see – marked changes in hydroclimatic drivers on catchment hydrological function. In this paper, we use tracer‐aided conceptual runoff models to investigate such impacts in a mesoscale (749 km2) catchment in northern Scotland. The catchment encompasses both sub‐arctic montane sub‐catchments with high precipitation and significant snow influence and drier, warmer lowland sub‐catchments. We used downscaled HadCM3 General Circulation Model outputs through the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator to project the future climate. This was based on synthetic precipitation and temperature time series generated from three climate change scenarios under low, medium and high greenhouse gas emissions. Within an uncertainty framework, we examined the impact of climate change at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales and projected impacts on flow regimes in upland and lowland sub‐catchments using hydrological models with appropriate process conceptualization for each landscape unit. The results reveal landscape‐specific sensitivity to climate change. In the uplands, higher temperatures result in diminishing snow influence which increases winter flows, with a concomitant decline in spring flows as melt reduces. In the lowlands, increases in air temperatures and re‐distribution of precipitation towards autumn and winter lead to strongly reduced summer flows despite increasing annual precipitation. The integration at the catchment outlet moderates these seasonal extremes expected in the headwaters. This highlights the intimate connection between hydrological dynamics and catchment characteristics which reflect landscape evolution. It also indicates that spatial variability of changes in climatic forcing combined with differential landscape sensitivity in large heterogeneous catchments can lead to higher resilience of the integrated runoff response. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
AbstractThe impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield is investigated in the Be River catchment, Vietnam, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate the hydrology and sediment yield in the catchment. From this, the responses of the hydrology and sediment to climate change and land-use changes were considered. The results indicate that deforestation had increased the annual flow (by 1.2%) and sediment load (by 11.3%), and that climate change had also significantly increased the annual streamflow (by 26.3%) and sediment load (by 31.7%). Under the impact of coupled climate and land-use changes, the annual streamflow and sediment load increased by 28.0% and 46.4%, respectively. In general, during the 1978–2000 period, climate change influenced the hydrological processes in the Be River catchment more strongly than the land-use change.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. ZhangCitation Khoi, D.N. and Suetsugi, T., 2014. Impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield—a case study of the Be River catchment, Vietnam. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 1095–1108. 相似文献
20.
The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized streamflow index (SSI) were used to analyse dry/wet conditions in the Logone catchment over a 50-year period (1951–2000). The SPI analysis at different time scales showed several meteorological drought events ranging from moderate to extreme; and SSI analysis showed that wetter conditions prevailed in the catchment from 1950 to 1970 interspersed with a few hydrological drought events. Overall, the results indicate that both the Sudano and Sahelian zones are equally prone to droughts and floods. However, the Sudano zone is more sensitive to drier conditions, while the Sahelian zone is sensitive to wetter conditions. Correlation analysis between SPI and SSI at multiple time scales revealed that the catchment has a low response to rainfall at short time scales, though this progressively changed as the time scale increased, with strong correlations (≥0.70) observed after 12 months. Analysis using individual monthly series showed that the response time reduced to 3 months in October. 相似文献