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1.
This paper presents a scenario-based study that investigates the interaction between sea-level rise and land subsidence on the storm tides induced fluvial flooding in the Huangpu river floodplain. Two projections of relative sea level rise (RSLR) were presented (2030 and 2050). Water level projections at the gauging stations for different return periods were generated using a simplified algebraic summation of the eustatic sea-level rise, land subsidence and storm tide level. Frequency analysis with relative sea level rise taken into account shows that land subsidence contributes to the majority of the RSLR (between 60 % and 70 %). Furthermore, a 1D/2D coupled flood inundation model (FloodMap) was used to predict the river flow and flood inundation, after calibration using the August 1997 flood event. Numerical simulation with projected RSLR suggests that, the combined impact of eustatic sea-level rise and land subsidence would be a significantly reduced flood return period for a given water level, thus effective degradation of the current flood defences. In the absence of adaptation measures, storm flooding will cause up to 40 % more inundation, particularly in the upstream of the river.  相似文献   

2.
The morphodynamic response of large tidal inlet/basin systems to future relative sea level rise (RSLR), incorporating both Eustatic sea level rise and local land subsidence effects, is qualitatively investigated using the state-of-the-art Delft3D numerical model and the Realistic analogue modelling philosophy. The modelling approach is implemented on a highly schematised morphology representing a typical large inlet/basin system located on the Dutch Wadden Sea (Ameland Inlet) over a 110-year study period. Three different RSLR Scenarios are considered: (a) No RSLR, (b) IPCC lower sea level rise (SLR) projection (0.2?m SLR by 2100 compared to 1990) and land subsidence, and (c) IPCC higher SLR projection (0.7?m SLR by 2100 compared to 1990) and land subsidence. Model results indicate that, for the 110-year study duration, the existing flood dominance of the system will increase with increasing rates of RSLR causing the ebb-tidal delta to erode and the basin to accrete. The rates of erosion/accretion are positively correlated with the rate of RSLR. Under the No RSLR condition, the tidal flats continue to develop while under the high RSLR scenario tidal flats eventually drown, implying that under this condition the system may degenerate into a tidal lagoon within the next 110?years. The tidal flats are stable under the low RSLR scenario implying that, at least for the next 100?years, this may be the critical RSLR condition for the maintenance of the system. Essentially the results of this study indicate that, as the Eustatic SLR is likely to be greater than the apparently critical rise of 0.2?m (by 2100 compared to 1990), the tidal flats in these systems will at least diminish. In the worst, but not unlikely, scenario that the Eustatic SLR is as high as the IPCC higher projections (0.7?m by 2100), the tidal flats may completely disappear. In either case, the associated environmental and socio-economic impacts will be massive. Therefore, more research focusing on the quantification of the physical and socio-economic impacts of RSLR on these systems is urgently needed to enable the development of effective and timely adaptation strategies.  相似文献   

3.
2030年上海地区相对海平面变化趋势的研究和预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
从全球气候变化区域响应角度,依据1912-2000年吴淞验潮站年平均潮位资料,构建灰色线性回归组合模型,并将其与最小二乘法和小波变换相结合,分析以吴淞为代表的上海绝对海平面长期变化趋势和周期变化规律。由此预测2030年上海绝对海平面相对2011年的上升值为4 cm,结合已公布的构造沉降和城市地面沉降、流域水土保持和大型水利工程及人工挖沙导致的河口河槽冲刷、河口围海造地和深水航道及跨江跨海大桥导致水位抬升等叠加效应及其变化趋势,预测2030年上海市相对海平面上升10～16 cm,陆地海平面上升有7个风险分区。  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

Relative sea‐level rise along the Atlantic coast of North America is observed to be about 30 cm/century. No more than half of this rise can be explained by eustatic changes. It is improbable that the remainder is explicable by steric changes. It is therefore almost certainly produced by a systematic subsidence of that coast. The required rate of at least 15 cm/ century is very large by long‐term geologic standards. However, it is comparable with rates measured in relevelling programs, and we must recognize that we live in extraordinary times geologically in that ice‐ages are unusual, and we are in a very warm portion of the present ice‐age. If at least half of the observed relative sea‐level rise is caused by subsidence, it seems reasonable to suppose that nearly all, except for the effects of the observed melting of small glaciers, is so caused. Sea‐level rise is so variable in other parts of the world that there also it is better explained by crustal movements than by eustatic sea‐level rise.

The doubt that these considerations place on the usual interpretation of past sea‐level rise extends to consideration of a possible future rise brought ori by climate change. It is uncertainty that has clearly increased, not eustatic sea‐level.  相似文献   

5.
On the island of Ameland (The Netherlands), natural gas has been extracted from a dune and salt marsh natural area since 1986. This has caused a soil subsidence of c. 1–25?cm, which can be used as a model to infer effects of future sea level rise. The aims of our study were (a) to relate the changes in the vegetation, and more specifically, in plant diversity, during the extraction period to soil subsidence and weather fluctuations, and (b) to use these relations to predict future changes due to the combination of ongoing soil subsidence and climate change. We characterised climate change as increases in mean sea level, storm frequency and net precipitation. Simultaneous observations were made of vegetation composition, elevation, soil chemistry, net precipitation, groundwater level, and flooding frequency over the period 1986–2001. By using multiple regression the changes in the vegetation could be decomposed into (1) an oscillatory component due to fluctuations in net precipitation, (2) an oscillatory component due to incidental flooding, (3) a monotonous component due to soil subsidence, and (4) a monotonous component not related to any measured variable but probably due to eutrophication. The changes were generally small during the observation period, but the regression model predicts large changes by the year 2100 that are almost exclusively due to sea level rise. However, although sea level rise is expected to cause a loss of species, this does not necessarily lead to a loss of conservancy value.  相似文献   

6.
Summary After an accurate search for old documents in Italian archives, the series of the sea surges has been reconstructed for a period of 12 centuries. In addition to written documents, other sources have also been investigated, e.g. the identification marks made by the Venetian Republic at the mean level of the high tides and accurate drawings made in the 18th century by the painterCanaletto with the help of a portable camera obscura. The sea surges at Venice are due to several forcing factors: a low pressure passing over the Mediterranean and generating a Sirocco wind; the barometric effect associated with a gradient of atmospheric pressure over the sea waters; free oscillations in the Adriatic sea; solar and lunar influences; subsidence of the soil. Except for a period which culminated in 1424–1442, when the moon was in perigee and the earth in perihelion, in general the meteorological factors largely dominate over the astronomical ones: the seasonal distribution shows a narrow peak in November–December and the series is important to show the frequency of the anomalies in the atmospheric circulations which determined meridional winds over the Adriatic sea. The analysis of the data shows clearly the 18.6 yr lunar nutation influence and a continuous rise of the sea level despite the cooling of the Little Ice Age. The most perturbed period were respectively: 1914–today, due to anthropogenic factors, i.e. excavating of new canals and underground water pumping; 1500–1550, during the Spörer Minimum of solar activity; 1720–1830; 1250–1350, which was also a stormy period in the North Sea. No apparent links with the Maunder Minimum of solar activity were found.With 7 Figures  相似文献   

7.
Sixty-cm Submersion of Venice Discovered Thanks to Canaletto's Paintings   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Relative sea level (RSL) rise is a crucial issue for the safeguard of Venice and its historical buildings. The phenomenon over the last three centuries has been investigated by using a proxy of mean sea level: the height of the algae front on palaces. This indicator was accurately drawn by Canaletto and his pupils in their `photographic' paintings made with an optical camera obscura. The positions of the fronts in the 18th century and the present were compared. The RSL rise is due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, both local and global, which affected the land subsidence. An analysis was performed to establish the long-term trend and distinguish between natural and local man contributions. A prudent scenario for the future would suggest a rate between 1.9 ± 0.4 mm yr–1 and 2.3 ± 0.4 mm yr–1.  相似文献   

8.
G. Jordà  D. Gomis  M. Marcos 《Climatic change》2012,113(3-4):1081-1087
Troccoli et al. (Climatic Change, published online 14th May, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0093-x), analysed different projections from global climate models in order to assess the frequency of storm surges in Venice during the 21st century under a climate change context. They concluded that the frequency of storm surges would decrease by about 30%, and that this reduction would compensate the expected mean sea level rise. Their final statement was that “the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered”. Although we agree in the expected reduction of storm surges, we strongly disagree in their final conclusion. First, because the impact of storm surges not only depends on the number of extreme surge events, but also on their intensity, that was not explicitely addressed. Second, because their estimates of mean sea level change for the 21st century are largely underestimated, as they miss some of the components driving sea level variability. Using state-of-the-art estimates for the thermosteric, mass and tidal contributions we show that the flooding events in Venice are expected to dramatically increase in a climate change scenario.  相似文献   

9.
To develop improved estimates of (1) flooding due to storm surges, and (2) wetland losses due to accelerated sea-level rise, the work of Hoozemans et al. (1993) is extended to a dynamic analysis. It considers the effects of several simultaneously changing factors, including: (1) global sea-level rise and subsidence; (2) increasing coastal population; and (3) improving standards of flood defence (using GNP/capita as an “ability-to-pay” parameter). The global sea-level rise scenarios are derived from two General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments of the Hadley Centre: (1) the HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and (2) the more recent HadCM3 greenhouse gas only experiment. In all cases there is a global rise in sea level of about 38 cm from 1990 to the 2080s. No other climate change is considered. Relative to an evolving reference scenario without sea-level rise, this analysis suggests that the number of people flooded by storm surge in a typical year will be more than five times higher due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Many of these people will experience annual or more frequent flooding, suggesting that the increase in flood frequency will be more than nuisance level and some response (increased protection, migration, etc.) will be required. In absolute terms, the areas most vulnerable to flooding are the southern Mediterranean, Africa, and most particularly, South and South-east Asia where there is a concentration of low-lying populated deltas. However, the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean islands and the Pacific Ocean small islands may experience the largest relative increase in flood risk. By the 2080s, sea-level rise could cause the loss of up to 22% of the world's coastal wetlands. When combined with other losses due to direct human action, up to 70% of the world's coastal wetlands could be lost by the 2080s, although there is considerable uncertainty. Therefore, sea-level rise would reinforce other adverse trends of wetland loss. The largest losses due to sea-level rise will be around the Mediterranean and Baltic and to a lesser extent on the Atlantic coast of Central and North America and the smaller islands of the Caribbean. Collectively, these results show that a relatively small global rise in sea level could have significant adverse impacts if there is no adaptive response. Given the “commitment to sea-level rise” irrespective of any realistic future emissions policy, there is a need to start strategic planning of appropriate responses now. Given that coastal flooding and wetland loss are already important problems, such planning could have immediate benefits.  相似文献   

10.
Data regarding the frequency andoccurrence of sea storms in the Adriatic Sea and theWestern Mediterranean during the last millennium havebeen extracted from historical written sources. TheAdriatic Sea shows two anomalous periods of high stormfrequency: the first half of the 1500s and the secondhalf of the 1700s. In the 1500s the storms were morefrequent in autumn, while in the late 1700s theyoccurred at high frequency in winter. In the WesternMediterranean, storms had a higher frequency in thefirst half of the 1600s, with two lesser periods ofhigh frequency in the 1400s and at the end of the1700s. Although both records show a maximum frequencyof sea storms during the Spörer Minimum(1416–1534) of solar activity, sunspot series yieldno, or poor, correlation during the other periods oflowest activity, i.e., Oort Minimum (1010–1090), WolfMinimum (1282–1342), and Maunder Minimum (1645–1715),suggesting that a teleconnection between sea stormsand sunspots is improbable or masked in this region.No teleconnection was found either between the ElNiño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and surgesflooding Venice or the Western Mediterranean storms orbetween Venice surges and the Northern AtlanticOscillation (NAO).  相似文献   

11.
We use a physically plausible four parameter linear response equation to relate 2,000 years of global temperatures and sea level. We estimate likelihood distributions of equation parameters using Monte Carlo inversion, which then allows visualization of past and future sea level scenarios. The model has good predictive power when calibrated on the pre-1990 period and validated against the high rates of sea level rise from the satellite altimetry. Future sea level is projected from intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) temperature scenarios and past sea level from established multi-proxy reconstructions assuming that the established relationship between temperature and sea level holds from 200 to 2100 ad. Over the last 2,000 years minimum sea level (−19 to −26 cm) occurred around 1730 ad, maximum sea level (12–21 cm) around 1150 ad. Sea level 2090–2099 is projected to be 0.9 to 1.3 m for the A1B scenario, with low probability of the rise being within IPCC confidence limits.  相似文献   

12.
The sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico during recent geologic time has closely followed global eustatic sea level change. Regional effects due to tectonics and glacio-isostasy have been minimal. Over the past several million years the northern Gulf coast, like most stable coastal regions of the globe, has experienced major swings of sea level below and above present level, accompanied by major shifts in shoreline position. During advances of the northern hemisphere ice sheets, sea level dropped by more than 100 m, extending the shoreline in places more than 100 km onto the shelf. For much of the period since the last glacial maximum (LGM), 20,000 years ago, the region has seen rates of sea level rise far in excess of those experienced during the period represented by long-term tide gauges. The regional tide gauge record reveals that sea level has been rising at about 2 mm/year for the past century, while the average rate of rise since the LGM has been 6 mm/year, with some periods of abrupt rise exceeding 40 mm/year. During times of abrupt rise, Gulf of Mexico shorelines were drowned in place and overstepped. The relative stability of modern coastal systems is due primarily to stabilization of sea level approximately 6,000 years ago, resulting in the slow rates of rise experienced during historic time. Recent model projections of sea level rise over the next century and beyond may move northern Gulf coastal environments into a new equilibrium regime, more similar to that experienced during the deglaciation than that which has existed during historic time.  相似文献   

13.
Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.  相似文献   

14.
The risk of sea level rise   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change requires nations to implement measures for adapting to rising sea level and other effects of changing climate. To decide upon an appropriate response, coastal planners and engineers must weigh the cost of these measures against the likely cost of failing to prepare, which depends on the probability of the sea rising a particular amount.This study estimates such a probability distribution, using models employed by previous assessments, as well as the subjective assessments of twenty climate and glaciology reviewers about the values of particular model coefficients. The reviewer assumptions imply a 50 percent chance that the average global temperature will rise 2 °C, as well as a 5 percent chance that temperatures will rise 4.7 °C by 2100. The resulting impact of climate change on sea level has a 50 percent chance of exceeding 34 cm and a 1% chance of exceeding one meter by the year 2100, as well as a 3 percent chance of a 2 meter rise and a 1 percent chance of a 4 meter rise by the year 2200.The models and assumptions employed by this study suggest that greenhouse gases have contributed 0.5 mm/yr to sea level over the last century. Tidal gauges suggest that sea level is rising about 1.8 mm/yr worldwide, and 2.5–3.0 mm/yr along most of the U.S. Coast. It is reasonable to expect that sea level in most locations will continue to rise more rapidly than the contribution from climate change alone.We provide a set of normalized projections which express the extent to which climate change is likely to accelerate the rate of sea level rise. Those projections suggest that there is a 65 percent chance that sea level will rise 1 mm/yr more rapidly in the next 30 years than it has been rising in the last century. Assuming that nonclimatic factors do not change, there is a 50 percent chance that global sea level will rise 45 cm, and a 1 percent chance of a 112 cm rise by the year 2100; the corresponding estimates for New York City are 55 and 122 cm.Climate change impact assessments concerning agriculture, forests, water resources, and other noncoastal resources should also employ probability-based projections of regional climate change. Results from general circulation models usually provide neither the most likely scenario nor the full range of possible outcomes; probabilistic projections do convey this information. Moreover, probabilistic projections can make use of all the available knowledge, including the views of skeptics; the opinions of those who study ice cores, fossils, and other empirical evidence; and the insights of climate modelers, which may be as useful as the model results themselves.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.  相似文献   

15.
对长江口海平面上升动态及其对沿海潮汐特性的影响进行了简析。结合长江口崇明三岛地区除涝安全面临海平面上升的影响和威胁,分别建立了基于海平面上升的上海市崇明三岛水系一维平原感潮河网水动力模型,深入开展了海平面上升对三岛地区除涝安全影响的模拟研究。结果显示,至2030年,长江口海平面上升10～16 cm,崇明三岛片区的面平均除涝最高水位、局部除涝最高水位均呈上升趋势,其中,崇明岛片受影响最大,对应水位将分别上升3～5 cm、4～6 cm;长兴岛片受影响次之,对应水位将分别上升3～4 cm、3～5 cm;横沙岛片受影响相对最小,对应水位均将上升1～2 cm;长江口海平面上升对崇明三岛的除涝安全影响在可控范围内。  相似文献   

16.
Global sea-level rise poses a significant threat not only for coastal communities as development continues but also for national economies. This paper presents estimates of how future changes in relative sea-level rise puts coastal populations at risk, as well as affect overall GDP in the conterminous United States. We use four different sea-level rise scenarios for 2010–2100: a low-end scenario (Extended Linear Trend) a second low-end scenario based on a strong mitigative global warming pathway (Global Warming Coupling 2.6), a high-end scenario based on rising radiative forcing (Global Warming Coupling 8.5) and a plausible very high-end scenario, including accelerated ice cap melting (Global Warming Coupling 8.5+). Relative sea-level rise trends for each US state are employed to obtain more reasonable rates for these areas, as long-term rates vary considerably between the US Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific coasts because of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, local subsidence and sediment compaction, and other vertical land movement. Using these trends for the four scenarios reveals that the relative sea levels predicted by century's end could range – averaged over all states – from 0.2 to 2.0 m above present levels. The estimates for the amount of land inundated vary from 26,000 to 76,000 km2. Upwards of 1.8 to 7.4 million people could be at risk, and GDP could potentially decline by USD 70–289 billion. Unfortunately, there are many uncertainties associated with the impact estimates due to the limitations of the input data, especially the input elevation data. Taking this into account, even the most conservative scenario shows a significant impact for the US, emphasizing the importance of adaptation and mitigation.  相似文献   

17.
Climate change due to enhanced greenhouse warming has been calculated using the coupled GFDL general circulation model of the atmosphere and ocean. The results of the model for a sustained increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide of 1% per year over a century indicate a marked warming of the upper ocean. Results of the model are used to study the rise in sea level caused by increase in ocean temperatures and associated changes in ocean circulation. Neglecting possible contributions due to changes in the volume of polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, the model predicts an average rise in sea level of approximately 15 ± 5 cm by the time atmospheric carbon dioxide doubles. Heating anomalies are greatest in subpolar latitudes. This effect leads to a weakening of the ocean thermohaline circulation. Changes in thermohaline circulation redistribute heat within the ocean from high latitudes toward the equator, and cause a more uniform sea level rise than would occur otherwise.  相似文献   

18.
Shanghai is a low-lying city (3–4?m elevation) surrounded on three sides by the East China Sea, the Yangtze River Estuary, and Hangzhou Bay. With a history of rapid changes in sea level and land subsidence, Shanghai is often plagued by extreme typhoon storm surges. The interaction of sea level rise, land subsidence, and storm surges may lead to more complex, variable, and abrupt disasters. In this paper, we used MIKE 21 models to simulate the combined effect of this disaster chain in Shanghai. Projections indicate that the sea level will rise 86.6?mm, 185.6?mm, and 433.1?mm by 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively. Anthropogenic subsidence is a serious problem. The maximum annual subsidence rate is 24.12?mm/year. By 2100, half of Shanghai is projected to be flooded, and 46?% of the seawalls and levees are projected to be overtopped. The risk of flooding is closely related to the impact of land subsidence on the height of existing seawalls and levees. Land subsidence increases the need for flood control measures in Shanghai.  相似文献   

19.
Although the sea breeze at Venice and on her hinterland is influenced by orography - mainly the Alps — to the north and the Po Valley to the west, the search for a correlation between the frequency of development of the sea breeze and the daily global solar radiation seems to be desirable, and may be useful for the management of emissions from the industrial area near Venice. Three different cases are examined: (i) the sea breeze occuring in the absence of any appreciable gradient wind; (ii) the sea breeze superimposed on a prevailing wind; (iii) the sea breeze not developing at all. The frequency distributions of these cases related to the global solar radiation at Venice are discussed.  相似文献   

20.
Against a background of climate change, Macau is very exposed to sea level rise(SLR) because of its low elevation,small size, and ongoing land reclamation. Therefore, we evaluate sea level changes in Macau, both historical and, especially,possible future scenarios, aiming to provide knowledge and a framework to help accommodate and protect against future SLR. Sea level in Macau is now rising at an accelerated rate: 1.35 mm yr-1over 1925–2010 and jumping to 4.2 mm yr-1over 1970–2010, which outpaces the rise in global mean sea level. In addition, vertical land movement in Macau contributes little to local sea level change. In the future, the rate of SLR in Macau will be about 20% higher than the global average, as a consequence of a greater local warming tendency and strengthened northward winds. Specifically, the sea level is projected to rise 8–12, 22–51 and 35–118 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100, respectively, depending on the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity. Under the +8.5 W m-2Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP8.5) scenario the increase in sea level by2100 will reach 65–118 cm—double that under RCP2.6. Moreover, the SLR will accelerate under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while remaining at a moderate and steady rate under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The key source of uncertainty stems from the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity, among which the discrepancies in SLR are small during the first half of the 21 st century but begin to diverge thereafter.  相似文献   

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