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1.
Using measures of wind strength and direction taken onboard ships during the 1750–1850 (CLIWOC project) period, preliminary reconstructions are attempted for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The reconstructions are based on regression equations developed using similar data from the ICOADS dataset. Although the regression relationships developed over a calibration period (1881–1940) work almost as well over an independent verification period (1941–1997), application to the earlier 1750–1850 period results in barely statistically significant correlation coefficients when compared with a number of other NAO and SOI reconstructions from other proxy and long instrumental sources. A number of possibilities are investigated to attempt to determine the cause, the most likely of which is that the number of observations available for the CLIWOC period is just too low in some regions. As large numbers of ships' logbooks remain to be digitised, the regression relationships will prove useful to focus effort in future digitisation endeavours.  相似文献   

2.
We have compiled a meteorological database over the world's oceans by digitizing data from European ship logbooks of voyages in the period 1750–1854. The observations are carefully reviewed and transformed into quantitative data. The chief contents of the database are wind direction and wind force information, from a period without standardized scales. It is found that the information content of these so-called non-instrumental data is much higher than previously believed. The 105-year CLIWOC database extends existing meteorological world ocean databases like ICOADS back in time by a full century.  相似文献   

3.
Public attitudes about climate change reveal a contradiction. Surveys show most Americans believe climate change poses serious risks but also that reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions sufficient to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations can be deferred until there is greater evidence that climate change is harmful. US policymakers likewise argue it is prudent to wait and see whether climate change will cause substantial economic harm before undertaking policies to reduce emissions. Such wait-and-see policies erroneously presume climate change can be reversed quickly should harm become evident, underestimating substantial delays in the climate’s response to anthropogenic forcing. We report experiments with highly educated adults – graduate students at MIT – showing widespread misunderstanding of the fundamental stock and flow relationships, including mass balance principles, that lead to long response delays. GHG emissions are now about twice the rate of GHG removal from the atmosphere. GHG concentrations will therefore continue to rise even if emissions fall, stabilizing only when emissions equal removal. In contrast, most subjects believe atmospheric GHG concentrations can be stabilized while emissions into the atmosphere continuously exceed the removal of GHGs from it. These beliefs – analogous to arguing a bathtub filled faster than it drains will never overflow – support wait-and-see policies but violate conservation of matter. Low public support for mitigation policies may arise from misconceptions of climate dynamics rather than high discount rates or uncertainty about the impact of climate change. Implications for education and communication between scientists and nonscientists (the public and policymakers) are discussed.  相似文献   

4.
We describe an improved tree-ring reconstruction of mean warm-season (November–April) temperatures for Tasmania from Huon pine. This record extends back to 1600 BC and is based on a tree-ring chronology that was processed to retain as much low-frequency variance as possible. The resulting reconstruction explains 46.6% of the variance and verifies significantly when compared to withheld instrumental data. Cross-spectral analysis of actual and estimated temperatures over the 1886–1991 common period indicates that most of the unexplained variance is at periods < 12 years in length. At periods > 12 years, the squared coherency ranges between 0.6–0.8, and the cross-spectral gain indicates that the amplitude of the reconstruction is a nearly unbiased estimate of the true temperature amplitude. Therefore, this reconstruction should be especially useful for studying multi-decadal temperature variability in the Tasmanian sector of the Southern Hemisphere over the past 3592 years. To this end, we examined the time evolution of low-frequency temperature amplitude fluctuations and found evidence for a 35% amplitude reduction after AD 100 that persisted until about AD 1900. Since that time, the low-frequency temperature amplitude has systematically increased. We also show how this reconstruction is related to large-scale sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian Ocean and eastward to the dateline. Pointwise correlations between the Tasmanian record and SSTs reveal a relationship that extends across the southern Indian Ocean and towards the Arabian Sea. This pattern is largely determined by inter-decadal temperature variability, with correlations in this > 10-year bandwidth commonly exceeding 0.6 over most of the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific sectors. A rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis reveals that the pattern of pointwise correlations found between the temperature reconstruction and SSTs is largely explained by the linear combination of three orthogonal modes of SST variability. Received: 12 January 1999 / Accepted: 31 July 1999  相似文献   

5.
A nonlinear backpropagation network (BPN) has been trained with high-resolution multiproxy reconstructions of temperature and precipitation (input data) and glacier length variations of the Alpine Lower Grindelwald Glacier, Switzerland (output data). The model was then forced with two regional climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation derived from a probabilistic approach: The first scenario (“no change”) assumes no changes in temperature and precipitation for the 2000–2050 period compared to the 1970–2000 mean. In the second scenario (“combined forcing”) linear warming rates of 0.036–0.054°C per year and changing precipitation rates between −17% and +8% compared to the 1970–2000 mean have been used for the 2000–2050 period. In the first case the Lower Grindelwald Glacier shows a continuous retreat until the 2020s when it reaches an equilibrium followed by a minor advance. For the second scenario a strong and continuous retreat of approximately −30 m/year since the 1990s has been modelled. By processing the used climate parameters with a sensitivity analysis based on neural networks we investigate the relative importance of different climate configurations for the Lower Grindelwald Glacier during four well-documented historical advance (1590–1610, 1690–1720, 1760–1780, 1810–1820) and retreat periods (1640–1665, 1780–1810, 1860–1880, 1945–1970). It is shown that different combinations of seasonal temperature and precipitation have led to glacier variations. In a similar manner, we establish the significance of precipitation and temperature for the well-known early eighteenth century advance and the twentieth century retreat of Nigardsbreen, a glacier in western Norway. We show that the maritime Nigardsbreen Glacier is more influenced by winter and/or spring precipitation than the Lower Grindelwald Glacier.  相似文献   

6.
Summary We present a preliminary evaluation of the performance of three different cumulus parameterization schemes in the ICTP Regional Climate Model RegCM3 for two overlapping domains (termed “big” and “small”) and horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) in the Caribbean area during the summer (July–August–September). The cumulus parameterizations were the Grell scheme with two closure assumptions (Arakawa–Schubert and Fritsch–Chappell) and the Anthes-Kuo scheme. An additional sensitivity test was performed by comparing two different flux parameterization schemes over the ocean (Zeng and BATS). There is a systematic underestimation of air temperature and precipitation when compared with analyzed data over the big domain area. Greater (∼2 °C) and smaller (∼0.9 °C) negative temperature biases are obtained in Grell–FC and Kuo convective scheme, respectively, and intermediate values are obtained in Grell–AS. The small domain simulation produces results substantially different, both for air temperature and precipitation. Temperature estimations are better for the small domain, while the precipitation estimations are better for the big domain. An additional experiment showed that by using BATS to calculate the ocean fluxes in the big domain instead of the Zeng scheme, precipitation increases by 25% and the share of convective precipitation rose from 18% to 45% of the total, which implies a better simulation of precipitation. These changes were attributed to an increase of near surface latent heating when using BATS over the ocean. The use of BATS also reduces the cold bias by about 0.3–0.4 °C, associated with an increase of minimum temperature. The behavior of the precipitation diurnal cycle and its relation with sea breeze was investigated in the small domain experiments. Results showed that the Grell–Arakawa–Schubert closure describes better this circulation as compared with Grell–Fritsch–Chappell closure.  相似文献   

7.
Based on the National Climate Center (NCC) of China operational seasonal prediction model results for the period 1983–2009 and the US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center merged analysis of precipitation in the same period, together with the 74 circulation indices of NCC Climate System Diagnostic Division and 40 climate indices of NOAA of US during 1951–2009, an analogue-dynamical technique for objective and quantitative prediction of monsoon precipitation in Northeast China is proposed and implemented. Useful information is extracted from the historical data to estimate the model forecast errors. Dominant predictors and the predictors that exhibit evolving analogues are identified through cross validating the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) among single predictors, meanwhile with reference of the results from the dynamic analogue bias correction using four analogue samples. Next, an optimal configuration of multiple predictors is set up and compared with historical optimal multi-predictor configurations and then dynamically adjusted. Finally, the model errors are evaluated and utilized to correct the NCC operational seasonal prediction model results, and the forecast of monsoon precipitation is obtained at last. The independent sample validation shows that this technique has effectively improved the monsoon precipitation prediction skill during 2005–2009. This study demonstrates that the analogue-dynamical approach is feasible in operational prediction of monsoon precipitation.  相似文献   

8.
Using unprecedented catalogues of past severe drought data for the Yucatan Peninsula between 1502 and 1900 coming from historical written documentation, we identified five conspicuous time lapses with no droughts between 1577–1647, 1662–1724, 1728–1764, 1774–1799 and 1855–1880, as well as time epochs with most frequent droughts between 1800 and 1850. Moreover, the most prominent periodicity of the historical drought time series was that of ∼40 years. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index for the Yucatan Peninsula for the period 1921–1987 we found prominent negative phases between ∼1942–1946 and 1949–1952, 1923–1924, 1928–1929, 1935–1936, 1962–1963, 1971–1972 and 1986–1987. Two prominent periodicities clearly appear at ∼5 and 10 years. Most modern and historical severe droughts lasted 1 year, and share a quasi-decadal frequency. Also, in the first 66 years of the twentieth century the frequency of occurrence of severe drought has been lower compared with the nineteenth century. Some of the major effects and impacts of the most severe droughts in the Yucatan region are examined. We also studied the relation between historical and modern droughts and several large scale climate phenomena represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Our results indicate that historical droughts and the cold phase of the AMO coincide, while the influence of the SOI is less clear. The strongest coherence between historical droughts and AMO occurred at periodicities of ∼40 years. For modern droughts the coherence of a drought indicator (the Palmer Drought Severity Index) is similar with AMO and SOI, although it seems more sustained with the AMO. They are strongest at ∼10 years and very clearly with the AMO cold phase. Concerning the solar activity proxies and historical droughts, the coherence with a record of beryllium isotope Be10, which is a good proxy of cosmic rays, is higher than with Total Solar Irradiance. We notice that the strongest coherence between historical droughts and Be10 occurs at periods ∼60–64 years. When studying modern droughts and solar activity, frequencies of ∼8 years appear, and the coherences are similar for both sunspots and cosmic rays. Comparing natural terrestrial and solar phenomena, we found that the most sustained and strongest modulation of historical drought occurrence is at ∼60–64 years and is between the historical drought series and the solar proxy Be10. For modern droughts we notice that the coherence is similar among AMO, SOI and the solar indices. We can conclude that the sea surface temperatures (AMO) and solar activity leave their signal in terms of severe droughts in the Maya lands, however in the long term, the influence of the SOI on this type of phenomenon is less clear.  相似文献   

9.
Summary ?One hundred and thirty six years (1856–1991) of monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) data in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean are used to investigate the propagating signals of the SST at a decadal (DD) time scale. The first and the third evolving modes show a relationship between the equatorial and the inter-hemispheric patterns, one evolving into the other mode and vice-versa. These modes describe two different evolutions of the SST at DD time-scale. The first EEOF features a 12-year period oscillatory regime with a strong 2-year duration inter-hemispheric pattern evolving into a weak 1-year duration equatorial pattern and vice-versa. This mode exhibits also a northward displacement of the anomalies in the band 15° S–15° N. The third EEOF also shows an oscillatory regime, but with a period of 10 years and with a relatively strong 2-year duration equatorial pattern evolving into a weak 1-year duration inter-hemispheric pattern and vice-versa. For this mode, the SST anomalies show a southward displacement in the band 15° S–15° N. These results have not yet been documented in previous works and explain some of the previous findings on the DD variability in the Tropical Atlantic. Received December 31, 2001; revised April 9, 2002; accepted September 4, 2002 Published online: March 20, 2003  相似文献   

10.
Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855–6 to 2004–5 and 1905–6 to 2004–5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975–6 to 2004–5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.  相似文献   

11.
The global mean surface temperature (GMST) response of HadCM3 to a 1,000 year 4×CO2 forcing is analysed using a transfer function methodology. We identify a third order transfer function as being an appropriate characterisation of the dynamic relationship between the radiative forcing input and GMST output of this Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (A-OGCM). From this transfer function the equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated as 4.62 (3.92–11.88) K which is significantly higher than previously estimated for HadCM3. The response is also characterised by time constants of 4.5 (3.2–6.4), 140 (78–191) and 1,476 (564–11,737) years. The fact that the longest time constant element is significantly longer than the 1,000 year simulation run makes estimation of this element of the response problematic, highlighting the need for significantly longer model runs to express A-OGCM behaviour fully. The transfer function is interpreted in relation to a three box global energy balance model. It was found that this interpretation gave rise to three fractions of ocean heat capacity with effective depths of 63.0 (46.7–85.4), 1291.7 (787.3–2,955.3) and 2,358.0 (661.3–17,283.8) meters of seawater, associated with three discrete time constants of 4.6 (3.2–6.5), 107.7 (68.9–144.3) and 537.1 (196.2–1,243.1) years. Given this accounts for approximately 94% of the ocean heat capacity in HadCM3, it appears HadCM3 could be significantly more well mixed than previously thought when viewed on the millennial timescale.  相似文献   

12.
Changing growing season observed in Canada   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
It is theoretically interesting for climate change detection and practically important for agricultural producers to know whether climate change has influenced agroclimatic conditions and, if so, what the potential impacts are. We present analyses on statistical differences in means and variances of agroclimatic indices between three 30-year periods in the 20th century (i.e., 1911–1940, 1941–1970 and 1971–2000). We found many occurrences of statistically significant changes in means between pairs of the three 30-year periods. The findings consistently support agroclimatic trends identified from trend analysis as an earlier growing season start and an earlier end to spring frost (SF), together with an extended growing season, more frost-free days (FFD) and more available heat units were often found in the later 30-year periods as compared to the earlier ones. In addition, this study provides more detailed quantitative information than the trend signals for the practical interests of agricultural applications. Significant changes were detected for SF and FFD at a much larger percentage of stations between the latter two 30-year periods (1941–1970 vs. 1971–2000) as compared to the earlier two periods (1911–1940 vs. 1941–1970). In contrast, changes in variances of the selected agroclimatic indices were less evident than changes in their means, based on the percentage of stations showing significant differences. We also present new climate averages of the selected agroclimatic indices that can be useful for agricultural planning and management.  相似文献   

13.
Summary The present paper is an analysis of mean maximum and minimum temperatures carried out on monthly, seasonal and annual time-scales examining the data collected at 171 meteorological stations over a region in the North West of Spain (Castilla y León) for the period 1961–1997. Various statistical tools were used to detect and describe significant trends in these data. The magnitude of the trends was derived from the slopes of the regression lines using the least squares method, and the statistical significance was determined by means of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. The pattern obtained is quite similar for mean maximum and minimum temperatures with increases in all months of the year, and in the annual series. The seasonal series corresponding to winter and summer also followed this same pattern. Spring and autumn were found to be more irregular. Because maximum temperature increased at a higher rate than minimum temperature in this period, an increase in the annual diurnal temperature range (DTR) was observed. The correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the regional maximum and minimum temperatures and DTR series for the period 1961–1997 have also be studied in this paper.  相似文献   

14.
A 680-year ring-width chronology of Sabina przewalskii Kom. was developed for Wulan area of northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China. Response function and correlation analyses showed that spring precipitation (May–June) is the critical limiting factor for tree-ring growth, and temperature in prior November may also play a role in affecting tree-ring growth. Excessive spring precipitation occurred during AD 1380s–1390s, 1410s–1420s, 1520s–1560s and 1938 to present. Dry springs occurred during AD 1430s–1510s, 1640s–1730s and 1780s–1890s most of which generally coincided with cold intervals of the Little Ice Age (LIA) on the plateau, suggesting that the LIA climate on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau might be characterized by three episodes of dry spring and cold autumn. The relatively driest spring and probably coldest autumn occurred in AD 1710s–1720s, 1787–1797, 1815–1824, 1869–1879 and 1891–1895. The extreme drought in AD 1787–1797 might result from little monsoon precipitation due to the failure of Asian monsoon in this period. The tree-ring data produced in this study contribute to the spatial expansion of proxy climate records for the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.  相似文献   

15.
A reconstructed dynamic Indian monsoon index extended back to 1880   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The authors present a reconstruction of summer (June–July–August) mean dynamic Indian monsoon index (DIMI) back to 1880 based on a large number of historical surface observation data as well as information from the upper air data. The reconstruction shows a satisfying skill in terms of both the value of reduction of error and an evaluation against other independent monsoon indices. The skill of reconstruction increases over time with more predictor data (in particular upper-level data) becoming available. A comparison with the observed all Indian summer monsoon rainfall index (AIRI) shows a high consistence in both inter-decadal and inter-annual variability. The reconstruction shows stronger than normal monsoon during the 1880s, 1915–1925 (around 1920) and 1930–1945 (around 1940) as the AIRI. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—monsoon relationship is reasonably captured in the reconstruction. Powers concentrating within quasi-biennial band stand out in the reconstruction as well as in the AIRI. A comparison of the reconstruction against an atmospheric general circulation model simulation with specified SST and external forcing agents spanning 1901–1999 indicates a slightly higher reproducibility of monsoon circulation than monsoon rainfall in terms of interannual variability. The relationship between the Asian continent warming and the ENSO–monsoon connection is also discussed by using the new dynamic index.  相似文献   

16.
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17.
In this study, the observational data acquired in the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX) from May to July 2008 and 2009 were integrated and assimilated with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; information available online at ). A high-resolution mesoscale analysis dataset was then generated at a spatial resolution of 5 km and a temporal resolution of 3 h in four observational areas: South China, Central China, Jianghuai area, and Yangtze River Delta area. The quality of this dataset was evaluated as follows. First, the dataset was qualitatively compared with radar reflectivity and TBB image for specific heavy rainfall events so as to examine its capability in reproduction of mesoscale systems. The results show that the SCHeREX analysis dataset has a strong capability in capturing severe mesoscale convective systems. Second, the mean deviation and root mean square error of the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis fields were analyzed and compared with radiosonde data. The results reveal that the errors of geopotential height, temperature, relative humidity, and wind of the SCHeREX analysis were within the acceptable range of observation errors. In particular, the average error was 45 m for geopotential height between 700 and 925 hPa, 1.0–1.1°C for temperature, less than 20% for relative humidity, 1.5–2.0 m s−1 for wind speed, and 20°–25° for wind direction. The above results clearly indicate that the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis dataset is of high quality and sufficient reliability, and it is applicable to refined mesoscale weather studies.  相似文献   

18.
Summary By analyzing 12-year (1979–1990) 200 hPa wind data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis, we demonstrate that the intraseasonal time scale (30–60 days) variability of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) reported in individual case studies occurs during most years. In the entrance region (east of ∼70° E), axis of the TEJ at 200 hPa is found along the near equatorial latitudes during monsoon onset/monsoon revivals and propagates northward as the monsoon advances over India. This axis is found along ∼5° N and ∼15° N during active monsoon and break monsoon conditions respectively. Examination of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis wind data also confirms the northward propagation of the TEJ on intraseasonal time scales. During the intraseasonal northward propagations, axis of the TEJ is found about 10°–15° latitudes south of the well-known intraseasonally northward propagating monsoon convective belts. Because of this 10°–15° displacement, axis of the TEJ arrives over a location about two weeks after the arrival of the monsoon convection. Systematic shifting of the locations by convection, low level monsoon flow and TEJ in a collective way during different phases of the monsoon suggests that they all may be related.  相似文献   

19.
Summary ?We evaluate United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) one-month ensemble forecasts of mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) in the southern hemisphere (SH) to 60° S, with a special focus on their utility near New Zealand (NZ). There are 105 9-member ensembles, at approximately two-week intervals, between 1995 and 1999. Each forecast is averaged over two successive 15-day periods and verified against the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set. Compared to climatology, the skill of the ensemble mean is slightly positive in days 1–15, and slightly negative in days 16–30. Skill near NZ is slightly lower than the SH averages. For SH-scale circulation patterns (as seen in the first few principal components), skill is greater than for most individual grid points, but is still negligible or negative in days 16–30. Moderate skill-spread correlations (ρ ≈−0.5) were found for some skill scores. The way that skill varies with season and the Southern Oscillation Index is consistent with other research but not statistically significant for this small data set. Probabilistic forecasts of low and high pressures have skill similar to that of the ensemble mean. The ensemble spread is generally too small, in that the analysis lies within the ensemble less often than the theoretically optimum value of 80% of the time. Measured as a fraction of the natural variability, the spread increases substantially with time and latitude: it is less than 0.5 near the equator in days 1–15, and takes values near 1 only at higher latitudes during days 16–30. The initial sequential structure of the ensembles (a consequence of the use of time lags in their genesis) is still apparent in days 1–15 but has disappeared by days 16–30. Three potential alternatives to the ensemble mean were all found to have less skill than it. Received June 17, 2001; revised July 4, 2002; accepted November 22, 2002 Published online March 17, 2003  相似文献   

20.
Summary The west coast of the Indian peninsula receives very heavy rainfall during the summer Monsoon (June–September) season with average rainfall over some parts exceeding 250 cm. Heavy rainfall events with rainfall more than 15 cm day−1 at one or more stations along the west coast of India occur frequently and cause considerable damage. A special observational programme, Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment, was carried out during the monsoon season of 2002 to study these events. The spatial and temporal distributions of intense rainfall events, presented here, were used for the planning of this observational campaign. The present study using daily rainfall data for summer monsoon season of 37 years (1951–1987) shows that the probability of getting intense rainfall is the maximum between 14° N–16° N and near 19° N. The probability of occurrence of these intense rainfall events is high from mid June to mid August, with a dip in early July. It has been believed for a long time that offshore troughs and vortices are responsible for these intense rainfall events. However, analysis of the characteristics of cloud systems associated with the intense rainfall events during 1985–1988 using very high resolution brightness temperature data from INSAT-IB satellite shows that the cloud systems during these events are characterized by large spatial scales and high cloud tops. Further study using daily satellite derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data over a longer period (1975–1998) shows that, most of these events (about 62%) are associated with systems organized on synoptic and larger scales. We find that most of the offshore convective systems responsible for intense rainfall along the west coast of India are linked to the atmospheric conditions over equatorial Indian Ocean.  相似文献   

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