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1.
New England and Atlantic Canada are characterized by mixed flood regimes that reflect different storm types, antecedent land surface conditions, and flood seasonality. Mixed flood regimes are known to complicate flood risk analyses, yet the synoptic climatology and precipitation mechanisms that generate annual floods in this region have not been described in detail. We analyzed a set of long-term annual flood records at climate-sensitive stream gauges across the region and classified the synoptic climatology of each annual flood, quantitatively describing the precipitation mechanisms, and characterize flood seasonality. We find that annual floods here are dominantly generated by Great Lakes-sourced storms and Coastal lows, known locally as ‘nor’easters.’ Great Lakes storms tend to be associated with lower magnitude annual floods (<75th percentile) and Coastal lows are more clearly associated with higher magnitude events (>75th percentile). Tropical cyclones account for few of all annual floods, including extreme events, despite causing some of the region’s largest and most destructive floods. Late winter/early spring is when the greatest number of annual floods occur region wide, and rainfall is the dominant flood-producing mechanism. Rainfall in combination with snowmelt is also important. Both mechanisms are expected to be impacted by projected regional climate change. We find little evidence for associations between flood-producing synoptic storm types or precipitation mechanisms and large-scale atmospheric circulation indices or time periods, despite upward trends in New England annual flood magnitudes. To more completely investigate such associations, partial duration flood series that include more floods than just the largest of each year, and their associated synoptic climatologies and precipitation mechanisms, should be analyzed.  相似文献   

2.
Unseasonable floods are floods that occur in the season of lowest flood frequency, or dry season. Such floods pose a unique problem to flood planners and forecasters, yet little research has investigated the physical processes associated with unseasonable floods. The purpose of this study is to construct a synoptic climatology of extreme unseasonable floods for the southeastern United States. Results indicate that the types of storms creating unseasonable floods are location specific, with four unique regions across the study area: Carolina (tropical storms/hurricanes), Georgia Coastal Plain (Gulf depressions), Gulf-Atlantic (frontal), and Tennessee (frontal with upper-air enhancement). The precipitation created by these storms is low to moderate, rarely exceeding the 10-year 24-hour storm total. The precipitation levels suggest that a combination of meteorological conditions and land-surface conditions create the extreme events. A statistical analysis indicates that high soil-moisture levels combine with the moderate rains to produce extreme unseasonable floods. [Key words: unseasonable floods, synoptic climatology, land-surface conditions, southeastern United States.]  相似文献   

3.
顾西辉  张强  孙鹏  肖名忠  孔冬冬 《地理学报》2015,70(9):1390-1401
采用塔里木河流域（塔河流域）8个水文站及相应气象站数据,全面分析了洪水发生量级、频率和峰现时间等特征,研究洪水发生成因及其影响。结果表明：1980s中后期塔河流域气温与降水持续增加,整个塔河流域年及季节洪峰流量普遍呈上升趋势,大部分在1980s中后期发生突变。1980s中期以后塔河流域年及季节洪峰流量呈持续增加或者显著增加趋势,量级位于整个观测时期均值之上,处于洪水“丰富”期。“丰富”期暴雨型和升温型洪水发生次数及造成的灾害损失均呈显著增加趋势,引起严重洪灾损失的洪水也集中在这一时期,且多由暴雨型洪水引发。大量级洪水（最大三场洪水及重现期大于10年的洪水）多集中发生在1990年之后,并且易引发多个水文站点同时出现。  相似文献   

4.
我国干旱区洪水灾害基本特征：以新疆为例   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  
依据新疆自然和社会环境,分析了新疆洪水及其洪灾的形成,季节分布,年际变化,地区分布等主要特征,并提出对洪水灾害的防御对策。  相似文献   

5.
To extend the historical record of river floods in southern Norway, a 572-cm long sediment core was retrieved from 42 m water depth in Atnsjøen, eastern Norway. The sediment core contains 30 light gray clastic sediment layers interpreted to have been deposited during river floods in the snow/ice free season. In the upper 123 cm of the core, four prominent flood layers occur. The youngest of these overlap with the historical record. The thickest (flood layer 5) possibly reflects a general increase in river-flood activity as a result of the post-Medieval climate deterioration (lower air temperatures, thicker and more long-lasting snow cover, and more frequent rain/snow storms) associated with the Little Ice Age. The most pronounced pre-historic flood layers in the core were, according to an age model based on linear regression between eleven bulk AMS radiocarbon dates, deposited around 4135, 3770, 3635, 3470, 3345, 2690, 2595, 2455, 2415, 2255, 2230, 2150, 2120, 1870, 1815, 1665, 1640, 1480, 1400, 1380, 1290, 935, 885, 670, 655 and 435 cal. BP (BP = AD 1950). The mean return period of the river flood layers is, according to the linear regression age model, ~ 150 ± 30 cal. yr (mean ± 1 S.E.).  相似文献   

6.
The extraction of paleohydrological and paleoclimatological information from a modern hydrological system, shown to represent unique and extreme hydroclimatological conditions, is illustrated by an example from the Mojave River drainage basin in southern California. The Mojave River allows only the most extreme floods to reach its terminal basin in the Silver Lake playa and to form ephemeral lakes. All the other floods are lost by transmission into the alluvial aquifer along its 200 km channel. This filtering out of regular floods by the river provides an essential tool in establishing a physical link between atmospheric and hydrologic conditions. We demonstrate such a link between anomalous, present-day atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Pacific Ocean, extreme storms in southern California that produced the heaviest precipitation on record, the largest floods of record in the Mojave River watershed, and ephemeral lakes in its terminal playa. This physical link determines the possible cause of the formations of perennial, short-duration, shallow lakes in Silver Lake playa during the late Holocene and characterizes the hydroclimatic conditions that prevailed during these lacustrine episodes. Hydrological simulations of this river and its filtering character demonstrate that these lakes could have formed only if the most extreme modern storms and floods were more frequent in at least an order of magnitude during specific time episodes. We conclude that such extreme hydroclimatic conditions occurred more frequent in past episodes during which the Holocene lakes formed. In turn, this conclusion indicates that the cause of these storms and floods, i.e. the anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern, must have been more frequent. This research outlines a way to extract information on Holocene climates in hydrologic settings that demonstrate a unique cause and effect relationship.  相似文献   

7.
近年来伴随着城市化的快速发展,世界各大城市汛期极端降雨事件频发,洪涝造成的社会经济损失日益严重,在此背景下,分析中国首都北京各城市化阶段汛期降雨变化显得非常有必要。论文基于30个雨量站1963—2012年汛期降雨资料,运用线性回归、滑动平均以及ArcGIS空间分析等方法对北京汛期降雨时空特征进行分析,通过对比城区和近郊区汛期降雨之间的差异来研究城市化对汛期降雨特征的影响,同时利用北京不同城市化阶段土地利用数据分析了城市下垫面变化对降雨的影响,得出以下主要结论：① 北京各区域汛期降雨时间上整体呈现下降趋势,空间上整体表现为由东向西呈逐渐减小的趋势。② 北京山区最容易发生小雨和中雨;城区则更容易发生中雨以上等级降雨事件,特别是暴雨和大暴雨;近郊区发生小雨和中雨概率与城区接近,但大雨以上等级降雨事件发生可能性小于城区;远郊发生各等级降雨事件的可能性均较大。③ 相对于北部近郊而言,在不同城市化发展阶段,城区降雨比南部近郊更大,但城市化增雨效应在城区与北部近郊之间也有所体现。④ 随着城市化的发展,北京城区和郊区城镇建设用地面积持续增长,原有下垫面条件被改变;由于城区城市化进程比近郊区更快,下垫面条件的改变使得城区汛期降雨量大于近郊区,且更易发生大雨以上等级降雨事件。  相似文献   

8.
Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings.Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10 min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3 h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1 h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D− 0.7 and I = 9.5D− 0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours).Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16 h, of low-intensity (2–10 mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33 h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D−0.4, and I = 7.2D−0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D−0.5 is approximately 25 mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires.The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes.  相似文献   

9.
在全球气候变化与城市扩张的背景下,城市洪涝问题频发并引发严重的社会问题与经济损失。当前城市洪涝管理的主要内容已从工程性防御性措施转向洪涝风险管理,而城市洪涝风险评估又是城市洪涝管理的关键环节。基于此背景,论文首先介绍了IPCC采纳的城市洪涝风险评估框架“危险性(Hazard)—暴露性(Exposure)—脆弱性(Vulnerability)”即“H-E-V”的概念内涵,在此基础上梳理了其危险性、暴露性、脆弱性3大要素的主要研究内容,探讨分析不同研究方法的优缺点。最后提出了城市洪涝风险评估的主要发展趋势及关键问题,主要有以下4个方面：①危险性方面,建立适应于城市地区的耦合型二维洪涝淹没模型是洪涝风险评估要求下的必然趋势;②暴露性分析在大数据及GIS技术支撑下正逐步精细化、动态化;③脆弱性正从早期侧重的物理维度定量评估转向社会、经济、文化、环境等多维度的评估;④此外,气候变化与城市扩张下的多情景城市洪涝风险评估是未来城市洪涝管理的研究热点与难题。  相似文献   

10.
South Asia is drained by some of the most flood‐prone rivers in the world. Flooding during the monsoon season is the most recurring, widespread and disastrous natural hazard in South Asia that results in enormous social, economic and environment consequences every year. Several massive floods have occurred in the recent decades causing huge economic losses and human suffering. On average, the total damage is close to USD 1 billion annually. To answer the question whether flooding in South Asia is getting worse and more frequent, all available data were considered: the annual peak discharge data for major rivers, post‐1985 information on floods from the global archive of large floods and palaeoflood records from nine Indian rivers. According to the global archive data, 372 large and 55 extreme flood events have occurred since 1985. Although there is no significant trend, all types of data point to clustering of large floods. Palaeoflood records show that modern floods (post‐1950) have higher flood levels than the late Holocene floods. Notwithstanding the limitations of data, there is enough evidence to conclude that (1) incidences of flood‐generating extreme rainfall event are rising and (2) human interventions have made the recent floods more destructive.  相似文献   

11.
为探讨鄱阳湖流域洪水过程的变化特征和规律,系统分析流域洪水量级、频率、发生时间的变化特征,利用核密度估计分析洪水发生率的非平稳性,运用月频率法评价洪水集聚性特征,并探讨低频气候因子对洪水变化的影响。研究表明：① 鄱阳湖流域各水文站点年、秋季和冬季最大洪水及POT超阈值洪水以增加趋势为主。② 洪水发生率年内集聚性显著,主要集中在4~7月;年际洪水发生次数呈现非平稳泊松分布,洪水发生率出现明显的年际集聚性特征。③ ENSO、IOD对下年洪水量级及洪水发生次数有明显影响,洪水发生次数与年最大洪水量级异常现象通常是ENSO和IOD协同作用结果。  相似文献   

12.
Floodplains contain valuable stratigraphic records of past floods, but these records do not always represent flood magnitudes in a straightforward manner. The depositional record generally reflects the magnitude, frequency, and duration of floods, but is also subject to storm-scale hysteresis effects, flood sequencing effects, and decade-scale trends in sediment load. Many of these effects are evident in the recent stratigraphic record of overbank floods along the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), where the floodplain has been aggrading for several thousand years. On low-lying floodplain surfaces in Iowa and Wisconsin, 137Cs profiles suggest average vertical accretion rates of about 10 mm/year since 1954. These rates are slightly less than rates that prevailed earlier in the 20th Century, when agricultural land disturbance was at a maximum, but they are still an order of magnitude greater than long-term average rates for the Holocene. As a result of soil conservation practices, accretion rates have decreased in recent decades despite an increase in the frequency of large floods.The stratigraphic record of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain is dominated by spring snowmelt events, because they are twice as frequent as rainfall floods, last almost twice as long, and are sometimes associated with very high sediment concentrations. The availability of sediment during floods is also influenced by a strong hysteresis effect. Peak sediment concentrations generally precede the peak discharges by 1–4 weeks, and concentrations are usually low (<50 mg/l) during the peak stages of most floods. The lag between peak concentration and peak discharge is especially large during spring floods, when much of the runoff is contributed by snowmelt in the far northern reaches of the valley.The great flood of 1993 on the Mississippi River focused attention on the geomorphic effectiveness and stratigraphic signature of large floods. At McGregor, where the peak discharge had a recurrence interval of 14 years, the flood was most notable for its long duration (168 days above 1600 m3s−1), high sediment concentrations (three episodes >180 mg/l), and large suspended load (1.71 Mt). The flood of 2001, despite its greater magnitude (recurrence interval 70 years), was associated with relatively low sediment concentrations (<60 mg/l). The 1993 and 2001 floods each left 30–80 mm of silty fine sand on most low-lying floodplain surfaces, but the 2001 flood produced sandy levees near the channel while the 1993 flood did not. The stratigraphic signature of these recent floods is more closely related to the duration and total suspended load of the event than to the magnitude of the peak discharge.  相似文献   

13.
有年无量历史洪水在设计洪水计算中的应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
内陆干旱区水文站网稀少,尤其是中小河流,连序、完整的洪水资料比较短缺,设计洪水计算的基本条件难以满足。为提高洪水系列代表性,基本途径是增加洪水系列的信息量。在已往的设计洪水计算中均采用已有连序系列加有年有量历史调查洪水值。但是,在历史洪水调查与考证中,既能查明洪水量级,也能考证出发生年份的历史洪水的资料极少,而只能调查出考证期而查不出洪水值的‘有年无量历史洪水’资料的较多,所以对这部分资料的合理、充分应用,是设计洪水计算中新的问题。本文针对有年无量历史洪水在设计洪水计算中的应用,进行了分析、探讨,其结果认为：采用,能增大对有年无量历史洪水资料的历史洪水信息量,提高洪水系列代表性,合理确定统计参数,提高设计洪水成果精度,对工程设计具有十分重要的作用。  相似文献   

14.
On 10th Oct.and 3rd Nov.2018,two successive landslides occurred in the Jinsha River catchment at Baige Village,Tibet Autonomous Region,China.The landslides blocked the major river and formed the barrier lake,which finally caused the huge flood disaster loss.The hillslope at Baige landslide site has been still deforming after the 2018 slidings,which is likely to fail and block the Jinsha River again in the future.Therefore the investigation of 2018 flood disaster at the Baige landslide is of a great significance to provide a classic case for flood assessment and early warning for the future disaster.The detailed survey revealed that the outstanding inundations induced bank collapse disasters upstream the Baige landslide dams,and the field investigations and hydrological simulation suggested that the downstream of the Baige landslide were seriously flooded due to the two periods of the outburst floods.On these bases,the early warning process of potential outburst floods at the Baige landslide was advised,which contains four stages:Outburst Flood Simulating Stage,Outburst Flood Fore-casting Stage,Emergency Plan and Emergency Evacuation Stage.The study offers a con-ceptual model for the mitigation of landslides and flood disasters in the high-relief mountain-ous region in Tibet.  相似文献   

15.
洪涝是影响印度社会经济发展的首要自然灾害。本文基于全球紧急事件数据库（Emergency Events Database，简称EM-DAT），通过识别洪涝事件，利用频次分析方法，分析了1950-2016年印度洪涝灾害事件频次的时空变化，揭示了印度洪涝灾害的时间和空间分异特征和因灾致死人口的变化特征。结果发现：（1）印度洪涝灾害呈现鲜明的季节变化特征，7-9月为高发季节，占总频次的65.704%，峰值出现在7月，占24.549%；1950-2016年洪涝频次总体呈增加趋势。（2）印度北部，特别是东北部，是洪涝灾害的高发区。（3）1950-2016年洪涝灾害致死人口随洪涝频次增加而增加，但单次死亡人口最大值和年最大死亡人口值均明显降低。由此表明，20世纪中叶以来印度抵御洪涝灾害的能力逐渐增强。本研究为进一步分析印度社会的脆弱性和未来气候变化情景下的洪涝灾害风险奠定了基础。  相似文献   

16.
A detailed analysis is made of the current ideas concerning floods of a special type. We examine short-lasting torrential flash floods, one of the most widespread and hazardous natural phenomena in the world characterized by a high rate of development, and by a short duration. It is established that such floods are in a primitive stage of study, which is testified by the fact that there is no general consensus as to what should be treated as a flash flood. It is pointed out that a special term designating them is also absent in many countries. It is determined that the key formation conditions for flash floods include intense short-lasting cloudbursts, the occurrence of a river basin in mountainous regions and a small drainage area; on this basis, it is suggested that they be termed flash floods. It is shown that such floods are of the most widespread occurrence in the northern hemisphere in regions with a temperate and subtropical climate. We suggest the scheme of natural factors for formation of flash floods and their differences from debris flows and floods of other types. It is determined that the main problems of investigating the formation mechanisms and forecasting the aforementioned floods are associated with the small spatiotemporal scale of these phenomena.  相似文献   

17.
The study area is a portion of a coastal community that is adjacent to a salt marsh and tidal creek. The developed area was built upon wetlands, and like the marsh, it floods during spring tides and strong coastal storms. Following floods, little visual evidence of sedimentation is in the built area, prompting the hypothesis that physical characteristics of coastal development limit sediment availability during floods and reduce deposition. Because the area floods from a tidal creek during the same events that lead to inundation of the adjacent high marsh, salt marshes are used as an analogue system for planning this research. Although salt marsh geomorphology is a starting point, people are endogenous actors at this site who influence geomorphic evolution by changing the flow of naturally occurring energy. Suspended sediment levels or deposition were measured during 10 flooding events. Water samples were collected from the tidal creek, at a catchbasin, at another location in the street, and in the Spartina patens marsh. Sediment is found to be delivered to the street in the same quantities and for the same duration as in the salt marsh. Suspended sediment levels are alike throughout the research area. The amount of sediment that accumulates following coastal floods was measured by placing samplers within the street and the marsh. Highly significant differences in sediment accumulation exist between the environments. After a flood event, much less sediment is deposited in the street than in the marsh.  相似文献   

18.
两汉时期黄河水患与中游土地利用之关系   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  
王尚义 《地理学报》2003,58(1):73-82
对史料重新进行了综合分析和解读,结合现代水文、地貌、土壤侵蚀的观测研究成果,就两汉黄河下游水患和中游土地利用方式的环境后果,提出了新的观点：(1)《后汉书》有关水患的记载简单笼统,但对伊洛河洪灾记载相对详细。当时伊洛河曾多次发生大水,甚至发生淹及洛阳城门和皇家园林的特大洪水,这些洪水涌入黄河干流同样可能导致下游水患;(2)自AD11河决魏郡后,一直到AD69王景治河的58年间,下游既未堵塞决口也未大规模治理,洪水来时任由泛滥。显然《后汉书》中没有具体记载是有意或无意漏记;(3) 对史籍中东汉大水、水出等记载逐年逐次排查,发现东汉水患频率高于西汉,灾情也更为严重。王景新河仅使下游安定了36年而非过去认为的800年或83年;(4) 东汉时期中游农耕人口比西汉减少近3/4,而河口镇至龙门间农耕人口减少九成以上,同时迁入大量游牧民族。原始游牧对天然植被破坏极大,是造成东汉黄河下游水患加剧的主要原因。  相似文献   

19.
明清时期凉山地区水旱灾害时空分布特征   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  
朱圣钟 《地理研究》2012,31(1):23-33
在对四川凉山地区明清时期地方志及四川省志、档案材料、水旱灾害调查材料、今人水旱灾害史料汇编、旱涝分布图集、相关论著等所载水旱灾害史料搜集整理基础上,对四川凉山地区明清时期水灾和旱灾时空分布特征进行了量化统计分析。研究表明:明清时期四川凉山地区水旱灾害频发,而水灾较旱灾更为频繁;水旱灾害发生时间主要集中在春夏季节,其他季节分布较少;水灾与旱灾多隔年发生,较少同年爆发;水旱灾害等级以一般性水旱灾害和大水旱灾害为主,特大水旱灾害相对较少;水旱灾害多发地带集中在金沙江下游一带、安宁河流域一带,其他地域相对较少。明清时期四川凉山地区水旱灾害发生规律对当前凉山地区水旱灾害的防灾减灾具有一定的借鉴意义。  相似文献   

20.
Vishwas S. Kale   《Geomorphology》2007,85(3-4):306
The efficacy of extreme events is directly linked to the flood power and the total energy expended. The geomorphic effectiveness of floods is evaluated in terms of the distribution of stream power per unit boundary area (ω) over time, for three very large floods of the 20th Century in the Indian Peninsula. These floods stand out as outliers when compared with the peak floods per unit drainage area recorded elsewhere in the world. We used flood hydrographs and at-a-station hydraulic geometry equations, computed for the same gauging site or a nearby site, to construct approximately stream-power curves and to estimate the total energy expended by each flood. Critical unit stream power values necessary to entrain cobbles and boulders were estimated on the basis of empirical relationships for coarse sediment transport developed by Williams [Williams, G.P., 1983. Paleohydrological methods and some examples from Swedish fluvial environments. I. Cobble and boulder deposits. Geografiska Annaler 65A, 227–243.] in order to determine the geomorphological effectiveness of the floods. The estimates indicate that the minimum power per unit area values for all three floods were sufficiently high, and stream energy was above the threshold of boulder movement (90 W m− 2) for several tens of hours. The peak unit stream power values and the total energy expended during each flood were in the range of 290–325 W m− 2 and 65–160 × 106 J respectively. The average and peak flood powers were found to be higher or comparable to those estimated for extreme palaeo or modern floods on low-gradient, alluvial rivers.  相似文献   

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