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1.
Use of Geomorphological Information in Indirect Landslide Susceptibility Assessment 总被引：31，自引：6，他引：31
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of geomorphological expert knowledge in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps, using GIS supported indirect bivariate statistical analysis. For a test area in the Alpago region in Italy a dataset was generated at scale 1:5,000. Detailed geomorphological maps were generated, with legends at different levels of complexity. Other factor maps, that were considered relevant for the assessment of landslide susceptibility, were also collected, such as lithology, structural geology, surficial materials, slope classes, land use, distance from streams, roads and houses. The weights of evidence method was used to generate statistically derived weights for all classes of the factor maps. On the basis of these weights, the most relevant maps were selected for the combination into landslide susceptibility maps. Six different combinations of factor maps were evaluated, with varying geomorphological input. Success rates were used to classify the weight maps into three qualitative landslide susceptibility classes. The resulting six maps were compared with a direct susceptibility map, which was made by direct assignment of susceptibility classes in the field. The analysis indicated that the use of detailed geomorphological information in the bivariate statistical analysis raised the overall accuracy of the final susceptibility map considerably. However, even with the use of a detailed geomorphological factor map, the difference with the separately prepared direct susceptibility map is still significant, due to the generalisations that are inherent to the bivariate statistical analysis technique. 相似文献
2.
3.
Evaluation of liquefaction potential hazard of Chennai city, India: using geological and geomorphological characteristics 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
According to the latest UNFA Report on state of world population 2007, unleashing the potential of urban growth by 2030, the urban population will rise to 5 billion or 60?% of the world population. Liquefaction in urban areas is dangerous phenomenon, which cause more damage to buildings and loss of human lives. Chennai, the capital city of the State Tamil Nadu in India, is one of the densely populated cities in the country. The city has experienced moderate magnitude earthquakes in the past and also categorized under moderate seismic hazard as per the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS in Criteria for earthquake resistant design of structures; Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, 1893 2001). A study has been carried out to evaluate the liquefaction potential of Chennai city using geological and geomorphological characteristics. The subsurface lithology and geomorphological maps were combined in the GIS platform for assessing the liquefaction potential. The liquefaction hazard broadly classified into three categories viz., liquefaction likely, possible and not likely areas. Mainly, the liquefaction likely areas spread along the coastal areas and around the river beds. The rest of the areas are liquefaction not likely and possible. The present map can be used as first-hand information on regional liquefaction potential for the city, and it will be help to the scientists, engineers and planners who are working for future site-specific studies of the city. 相似文献
4.
In recent decades, the concept of cultural heritage has evolved into one that encompasses an understanding of the history of humanity, together with scientific knowledge and intellectual attitudes. This changing concept has prompted a subsequent re-evaluation of what constitutes the outstanding universal values of World Heritage sites and the operational methods for implementing the UNESCO World Heritage Convention. The scope has broadened from studying a single monument in isolation to one that values a multidimensional, multiregional, and inter-disciplinary approach and encapsulates vast spans of human history. Within this broader view, landslides and more generally slope instabilities are an important factor endangering cultural heritage sites, especially prehistoric sites, earth/rock monuments, and archaeological sites affected by environmental processes and degradation. Natural and cultural heritage sites, as well as cultural landscapes, are then tied into a common framework that the Geological Society of America has defined “Men’s legacy to Earth and Earth’s legacy to Man”. On the other hand, not too much effort has been expended in the past to develop conservation policies systematically integrating geological, geomorphological, and engineering geological aspects into daily practices. The purpose of the “LAndslides and CUltural & Natural HEritage” thematic Network (LACUNHEN) is to create a platform for scientists and practitioners who are ready to jointly contribute to safeguarding relevant endangered Natural and Cultural Heritage sites (e.g., Machu Picchu). They will share and disseminate their respective experience, demonstrating how these special “objects” require approaches, techniques, and solutions that go far beyond traditional civil engineering perspectives. 相似文献
5.
多源遥感数据支持下区域滑坡灾害风险评价 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
滑坡风险管理是防灾减灾的有效途径之一,而灾害风险评价是风险管理的基础和依据。以三峡库首区为研究区、多源遥感影像为主要数据源,利用立体像对技术及光谱分析等方法快速提取地形地貌、地表覆被、地质及水文条件等滑坡孕灾环境信息,应用随机森林模型分析区域滑坡危险性;采用面向对象方法建立典型承灾体识别规则,快速提取建筑物及交通道路等信息,综合分析滑坡危险性及承灾体信息,以实现区域滑坡灾害风险评价。结果显示:高风险区面积为41 km2,约占研究区面积的9%,主要集中于人口聚集的城镇和交通建设用地等经济价值大的地区。其评价结果与野外实地调查情况基本吻合。 相似文献
6.
Mircea Buza 《GeoJournal》1997,41(1):85-91
All of the General Geomorphological Map of Romania on the medium scale of 1:200,000, with 50 sheets was elaborated in the Institute of Geography during the 1976--1990 period. A new general geomorphological map, this time on a large scale -- 1:25,000 and 1:50,000 -- is being worked out since 1991. The legend of the last two maps lists 250 geomorphological elements, grouped by ten large categories: 1. geological substrate; 2.denudational relief; 3. fluviatile relief; 4. lacustrine and marine relief; 5. glacial and periglacial relief; 6. karst relief; 7. eolian relief; 8. volcanic relief; 9. structural relief and, 10. anthropic relief. The general geomorphological maps of Romania on large scale (1:25,000 and 1:50,000) are accompanied by two auxiliary maps, i.e. a map of relief units and a morphostructural map, as well as by three geomorphological cross-sections. These show, beside landforms and geological structure, also rock composition and inclination of the strata. As an illustration, there is Zlatna sheet, on the scale of 1:25,000, which covers an area situated in the south-eastern part of the Romanian Western Carpathians (Apuseni Mountains). The work expounds on the location, division of the relief, relief energy and landforms, rock structure and make-up, current modelling processes, terraces, minor channel-beds, distribution of volcanic funnels and anthropic relief. 相似文献
7.
Rockfall susceptibility zoning at a large scale: From geomorphological inventory to preliminary land use planning 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Rockfall, up to several hundreds of cubic meters, is a frequent and rapid landslide which menaces extensive areas in mountainous territories. Rockfall susceptibility zoning map at a large scale (1:5000–1:25 000) can be the first tool for land use planning in order to manage rockfall risk. A methodology allowing to analyze susceptibility in extensive areas with optimum cost/benefit relationship is needed. This work analyzes rockfall susceptibility in an extensive rocky mountain of the Principality of Andorra (Pyrenees Mountains), first on the rock slope and then on the exposed area located below. The rockfall record, obtained by means of geomorphological analysis, supplies the main data to analyze the susceptibility on the rock slope. An additional historical inventory verifies the accuracy of rockfall sizes recorded by means of the geomorphological analysis. According to the classification recommended by the Guidelines of Joint Technical Committee, the density of rockfall features on the rock slope assesses susceptibility in four levels. Subsequently, susceptibility on exposed areas has been analyzed by means of reach probability of rock blocks analysis using empirical models. Data acquired from thirteen recent events, from 1999 to 2004, have been used to verify the accuracy of the two empirical models mainly used (reach angle and shadow angle). Five reach probability limits (1, 0.5, 0.25, 0.01, and 0) establish boundaries between susceptibility levels. The resulting rockfall susceptibility zoning map allows: (a) to identify land areas and human elements exposed to rockfalls and, (b) to establish several exposition levels. This map can be a useful and cost-effective tool for administrations responsible to manage natural risk in order to guide urban grow in extensive areas or decide upon work programs based on in-depth analysis (hazard and risk). 相似文献
8.
Knud Erik S. Klint Bertel Nilsson Lars Troldborg Peter Roll Jakobsen 《Hydrogeology Journal》2013,21(6):1247-1264
The ‘poly morphological (PM) concept’ is used to assess geological heterogeneity in glacial sediments and to evaluate groundwater recharge to aquifers, especially those underlying clay till. The novelty of the PM concept is that it enhances the knowledge of, especially, heterogeneity of till units in geological models by using superimposed geomorphological units with typical sediment types related to the individual landforms. The PM concept is demonstrated through the construction of a poly morphological map for Zealand in Denmark and an aggregated map comparing clay-till-thickness distribution within individual PM types. The hydrogeological applicability of the PM concept was tested with a physical-based distributed 3D hydrological model. The aggregated PM map was compared with fracture and redox conditions at 21 field sites to evaluate the PM-type correlation to: (1) till thickness, (2) thickness of the reduced-till zone, and (3) depth to the zone with fracture spacing >1 m The results show that the till thickness is a critical parameter for the formation of fracture networks in clay till, and that fracture density decreases in till thicker than 8–10 m. However, the amount of data is still inadequate for statistically proving the PM concept. 相似文献
9.
The creation of earthquake hazard maps requires various datasets with selected attenuation relations. Based on the selected attenuation relation, the calculation time varies from half an hour to a couple of days. The length of time needed to create an earthquake hazard map also depends on the resolution of the resulting map. The time gets longer as the resolution of the resulting earthquake hazard map gets higher. The basic form of an attenuation relation requires complex calculation algorithms including geospatial information related to the region of interest. Nowadays, next-generation attenuation (NGA) models are introduced to generate more realistic earthquake hazard maps. However, the more complex the attenuation relation is, the longer time will be required to create a hazard map. This paper offers a new method to create high-resolution earthquake hazard maps, faster than using traditional attenuation relation methods, by using an analytic hierarchy process of spatial multi-criteria decision analysis and geographic information systems. This method has been generated and tested for the city of Istanbul. The resulting maps are compared with the earthquake hazard maps created for the city of Istanbul by using the NGA model of Boore and Atkinson (in Boore–Atkinson NGA ground motion relations for the geometric mean horizontal component of peak and spectral ground motion parameters (trans: Engineering Co, University of California B). Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 2007). A second output of this paper is a map of the elements at risk (EaR) for the population and buildings of Istanbul, and the introduction of a new approach of net elements at risk (NEaR). 相似文献
10.
The concept of space is one of the most fundamental of geographical concepts. There is no work in geography that does not certain it. Nevertheless, geography has not as yet formulated an explicit and unambiguous definition of geographical space. This fact has had negative consequences for geographical theory, methodology and application. In the effort of contributing to its elimination we will try to outline the basic connotations of the concept.The concept of geographical space is a relational one. It acquires meaning and sense only when related to other concepts. The concept of space may be conceived as a supplement to things, i.e. substantively conceived objects. Space conceived in this way is the synonym of emptiness. The concept of space may be also conceived in relation ti individual landscape elements as their environments. Space conceived in this way has the character of a field of force. And, finally, space may be conceived also with respect to the totality of landscape elements, i.e. the system expressed by the term synergic. It is only this third variant of space which should be understood as the geographical space in the full menaing of the term. It is only this conception of geographical space as the space filled with qualities in relations and proportions that is considered as one of the basic prerequisites for the formulation of the theory of geography as science capable of prediction and thus also of practical utilization. 相似文献
11.
Prof. Dr. Helmut G. F. Winkler 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1976,65(1):874-885
The author's concept (1970, 1974) of evaluating metamorphic conditions is explained on the basis of most recent petrologic data. The major points treated are:
- Instead of usual petrographic mapping, petrographic work in the field is aimed at specific “targets”, i.e., rock compositions. This is so because only specific rocks may give petrogenetically relevant information in the four metamorphic grades.
- There are very many mineral reactions in metamorphism but only a few are petrogenetically significant. These are important to know, and they are graphically demonstrated. Any mineral assemblage that is formed by a significant mineral reaction must be verified as a paragenesis of mutually contacting minerals. Only such parageneses deserve to be mapped in the field as isograds or isoreactiongrads.
- Crossing isograds or isoreactionsgrads provide data on temperature and pressure during metamorphism for that part of a metamorphic terrane where the crossing has been observed.
- The sequence of isograds or isoreaction-grads may be a pressure indicator. Moreover, such a sequence provides geodynamic information whether a larger metamorphic area has been lifted up evenly or has been tilted while it was uplifted after metamorphism.
12.
Sankar Kumar Nath Kiran Kumar Singh Thingbaijam Abhishek Raj 《Journal of Earth System Science》2008,117(2):809-831
A comprehensive analytical as well as numerical treatment of seismological, geological, geomorphological and geotechnical concepts has been implemented through microzonation projects in the northeast Indian provinces of Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city, representing cases of contrasting geological backgrounds — a hilly terrain and a predominantly alluvial basin respectively. The estimated maximum earthquakes in the underlying seismic source zones, demarcated in the broad northeast Indian region, implicates scenario earthquakes of M W 8.3 and 8.7 to the respective study regions for deterministic seismic hazard assessments. The microzonation approach as undertaken in the present analyses involves multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation through thematic integration of contributing factors. The geomorphological themes for Sikkim Himalaya include surface geology, soil cover, slope, rock outcrop and landslide integrated to achieve geological hazard distribution. Seismological themes, namely surface consistent peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency were, thereafter, overlaid on and added with the geological hazard distribution to obtain the seismic hazard microzonation map of the Sikkim Himalaya. On the other hand, the microzonation study of Guwahati city accounts for eight themes — geological and geomorphological, basement or bedrock, landuse, landslide, factor of safety for soil stability, shear wave velocity, predominant frequency, and surface consistent peak ground acceleration. The five broad qualitative hazard classifications — ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘high’, ‘moderate high’ and ‘very high’ could be applied in both the cases, albeit with different implications to peak ground acceleration variations. These developed hazard maps offer better representation of the local specific seismic hazard variation in the terrain. 相似文献
13.
In the practice of administrative or engineering geosciences, the problem of deriving a digital surface representation from a map displaying contour lines of the interesting quantity is quite often encountered. First, alpha-numerical data are retrieved from the map by digitizing these contour lines pointwise into polygons. However, common gridding algorithms are known to fail at adequately reproducing the input contour lines due to the inhomogeneous and anisotropic areal distribution of the sites of the data sampled from given contour lines. Therefore, we suggest a new algorithm; the basic elements of its first stage are a constrained Delaunay triangulation of the data sites honoring their natural neighborhood relationship—i.e., whether they belong to the same contour line or not, and linear interpolation according to this triangulation of the data domain. In a second stage, a Bezier-Bernstein or simplex B-spline representation is easily achieved if a C1 or C2 smooth representation is required. At this stage, also, discontinuities of the function or its first directional derivatives with known locations in the data domain may be represented, provided this additional information has been taken into account when the triangulation was performed. The algorithm is numerically stable and efficient, and allows external interaction by the user to introduce his/her additional knowledge of the phenomenon to be studied, which may not be explicitly inherent in the available data. 相似文献
14.
In this paper, entropy is presented as an alternative measure to characterize the bivariate distribution of a stationary spatial process. This non-parametric estimator attempts to quantify the concept of spatial ordering, and it provides a measure of how Gaussian the experimental bivariate distribution is. The concept of entropy is explained and the classical definition presented, along with some important results. In particular, the reader is reminded that, for a known mean and covariance, the bivariate Gaussian distribution maximizes entropy. A relative entropy estimator is introduced in order to measure departure of an experimental bivariate distribution from the bivariate Gaussian. Two case studies are presented as examples. 相似文献
15.
《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2018,47(1):11-e8
During the last glaciation, most of the British Isles and the surrounding continental shelf were covered by the British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). An earlier compilation from the existing literature (BRITICE version 1) assembled the relevant glacial geomorphological evidence into a freely available GIS geodatabase and map (Clark et al. 2004: Boreas 33, 359). New high‐resolution digital elevation models, of the land and seabed, have become available casting the glacial landform record of the British Isles in a new light and highlighting the shortcomings of the V.1 BRITICE compilation. Here we present a wholesale revision of the evidence, onshore and offshore, to produce BRITICE version 2, which now also includes Ireland. All published geomorphological evidence pertinent to the behaviour of the ice sheet is included, up to the census date of December 2015. The revised GIS database contains over 170 000 geospatially referenced and attributed elements – an eightfold increase in information from the previous version. The compiled data include: drumlins, ribbed moraine, crag‐and‐tails, mega‐scale glacial lineations, glacially streamlined bedrock (grooves, roches moutonnées, whalebacks), glacial erratics, eskers, meltwater channels (subglacial, lateral, proglacial and tunnel valleys), moraines, trimlines, cirques, trough‐mouth fans and evidence defining ice‐dammed lakes. The increased volume of features necessitates different map/database products with varying levels of data generalization, namely: (i) an unfiltered GIS database containing all mapping; (ii) a filtered GIS database, resolving data conflicts and with edits to improve geo‐locational accuracy (available as GIS data and PDF maps); and (iii) a cartographically generalized map to provide an overview of the distribution and types of features at the ice‐sheet scale that can be printed at A0 paper size at a 1:1 250 000 scale. All GIS data, the maps (as PDFs) and a bibliography of all published sources are available for download from: https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/geography/staff/clark_chris/britice . 相似文献
16.
Pramod Kumar Yadav P K Adhikari Shalivahan Srivastava Ved P Maurya Anurag Tripathi Shailendra Singh Roshan K Singh Ashish K Bage 《Journal of Earth System Science》2018,127(2):17
Dalma volcanics (DVs) has intruded the older Singhbhum Group of Metapelites. Despite DVs being rich in mineralisation, its boundaries are not clearly demarcated. Gravity and magnetic surveys have been attempted for mapping the boundaries in DVs. These surveys were made in the northern fringe of the DVs over an area of \(\sim \)0.70 \(\hbox {km}^{2}\) along 13 parallel lines at 50 m spacing. The data was acquired at \(\sim \)25 \(\hbox {m}\) spacing. The surveys were taken for determination of lithological boundaries, depths and nature of causative source using Euler depth solutions and radially averaged power spectrum (RAPS). Residual anomaly maps of gravity and magnetic intensity show the same trend as that of Bouguer gravity anomaly and total magnetic intensity anomaly map indicating towards shallow sources. The magnetic map in general follows the same pattern as that of gravity anomaly maps. The map shows coincident high gravity and magnetic anomalies. These anomalies together with resistivity signatures confirm that the northern fringe of DVs hosts volcanogenic massive sulphide settings. The Euler depth solution delineated the lateral boundaries and nature of the source. It seems that the source is of spherical nature lying within a depth range of 25–40 m. The obtained lithological (vertical) units from RAPS are between Lower DVs, Upper DVs and Singhbhum Group Metapelites at depths of \(\sim \)15, \(~\sim \)25 and \(\sim \)40 \(\hbox {m}\), respectively. The metallogeny is associated with the Upper DVs and the corresponding delineated lithological (vertical) unit is indicative of the top of the ore body. Good agreement is observed with the geological succession from the drilling data and resistivity data. The findings suggest that the northern fringe of DVs could be a preferred target for drilling. 相似文献
17.
The Tokaido east coast road has been the main road of Japan since Mediaeval times, and the journey from Tokyo at one end to Kyoto or Osaka at the other, which used to take a fortnight, can now be completed in about three hours by bullet train, and an even faster linear-motor car is likely to be in operation in the near future.Already during the 18. cent., Edo (Tokyo) was the largest city in the world, with a population over a million, and the rapid urbanization of Japan's population since Meiji times, and particularly during the post-WW II period, has been quite unprecendented. In 1950, the median size of place was 13,000 and by 1975 it was 140,000. About 60 million lived in the Tokaido zone.The Kanto, Nobi and Osaka plains, adjacent to the good harbours of Tokyo, Ise and Osaka bays, enjoying the relatively mild climate of the Pacific coast, and being within 600 km of each other, have been the focii of urban and industrial development in Japan. The emergence of Tokaido megalopolis was boosted by capital investment in this zone, and was contingent upon the industriousness and high level of education of the people.The concept of megalopolis in Japan is popularly associated with rapid urbanization, poly-nuclear and linear form, and concentration of population, capital and information, all of which elements are typified by the Tokaido zone. The linear megalopolis pattern has been postulated as a more efficient growth form for high-dense society than the radial metropolitan pattern. It has even been suggested that megalopolis is a concept perceived by the intellect, its physical structure determined by information networks, metropolis being perceived by the eye and its physical structure being determined by transport and energy networks.Quite irrespective of the concept of megalopolis, there can be no denying that Japan's society is a high-dense society. In 1975, 57% of the population lived in Densely Inhabited Districts (DIDs) at minimum densities of 40 persons per hectare, and these DIDs covered only 2.2% of the land area of Japan. The current trend is for more and more people to live in DIDs, but for overall DID densities to decrease. During the past 25 years, there has been a huge influx of population into the Tokaido zone, and while until 1960 the greatest increases were in the three main metropolitan centres, as these became saturated, rapid urbanization spread into the neighbouring prefectures. Since the mid-sixties, the central metropolitan wards have begun to lose residents, but the daytime population has continued to increase, giving rise to increasingly complex commuting patterns. To give an example, the commuting field of Yokohama includes almost all the prefectures of Tokaido megalopolis.Like the image of megalopolis itself, life in Tokaido megalopolis has its good and bad aspects. Although per capita space in dwellings is increasing somewhat, housing is extremely expensive and people commute long distances. Incomes are high but environmental problems persist. There is a U-turn phenomenon, but metropolitan suburbs remain a popular choice of residence.Central management functions and knowledge and information oriented occupations are predominantly concentrated in Tokyo and Osaka, the two main nodes of Tokaido megalopolis. In the intermediate cities, new employment opportunities are stimulated by the expansion of second-level managerial functions. The transport and communications networks of Tokaido are becoming congested as mobility and information flow increase.Planning in the eighties will be affected by the switch from industries dependent on raw materials to knowledge intensive industries; from investment in production to investment in public facilities and pollution control. Within Tokaido megalopolis, there is room for local governments to expand efforts to improve the existing situation, and at its fringes to avert some of the less desirable consequences of rapid urbanization. 相似文献
18.
Macro scale spatial patterns of maritime goods transport contain information important to the understanding of the flow system as such and to the planning of seaports and maritime transport. Data are available for this kind of research and are produced by the UN Statistical Office from trade statistics for 30 coastal areas and 37 three-digit commodity groups.The period of research is about 10 years, from 1970 on, including two oilcrises and the economic recession of the late seventies and early eighties.Coastal areas with high volumes of unloaded goods mostly have highly developed seaport areas and hinterlands and a shortage in basic resources: Far East Asia, Northern Europe, Mediterranean Europe, in that order. Coastal areas with high volumes of loaded goods are the Persian Gulf, Mediterranean Africa, Northern Europe and Ocenia.Five three-digit commodity groups were selected to determine the stability or change of the world flow system. This stability has been analysed for time series by means of a shift technique, originally developed for migration studies.The measure of complementarity has been developed to ascertain change in destinations or origins without change in flow volume. This aspect of flows has been connected with the concept of concentration/dispersion of the flow system.To produce non-accidental numbers moving averages for three years have been used.Paper presented to the IGU Pre-Congress Symposium SY n° 31 Geography of Transport,Rome, 22–25th of August 1984 相似文献
19.
With the help of aerial photographs, satellite photographs and imageries, contour maps, geological and geomorphological information
(personal correspondence and unpublished works), geophysical regional data, and field work, it has been possible to map a
network of fractures, alignments, and faults in 26 areas (distinguishing them quantitatively and hierarchically). Links with
known regional structures were also studied. Interpretation of the linear relief elements confirms the very different density,
dimensions, strikes, and function of the fracturation and also, from a microtectonic perspective, explains the activity of
some active faults better. It has confirmed some previous results and improved on others; for example, the Oriente fault which
is the most active in Cuba with two segments (Western: Cabo Cruz—Santiago de Cuba; Eastern: Santiago de Cuba—Punta de Maisí,
the Western fault being the most active); the Nortecubana fault, forming the northern limit of the Cuban megablock, and divided
into three segments; and the Cauto—Nipe fault, forming the limit of the neotectonic units, presenting two segments with three
seismoactive knots. 相似文献
20.
B. C. Papazachos Ch. A. Papaioannov D. J. Papastamatiou B. N. Margaris N. P. Theodulidis 《Natural Hazards》1990,3(2):141-151
Historical and present century instrumental data have been used to determine seismic hazard in 35 sites of Greece by the application of Cornell's method (Cornell, 1968) and the mean value method. The macroseismic intensity has been considered as a measure of seismic hazard. Comparison of the results of the two methods showed that, in general, the mean value method gives higher values, particularly for low probabilities of exceedance. In addition, for some sites, the differences of the expected intensities resulting from the two methods, indicate that finer tuning of the seismogenic souce model is required, or suggest time dependence. Although each one of these methods has its own merits, the method based on seismic zonation (Cornell's method) has several advantages and must be preferred when an accurate zonation is possible by the use of macroseismic and instrumental seismic data, together with geological and geomorphological information. However, reliable estimates of seismic hazard at a particular site require work on a microzoning scale, incorporating historical, archaeological, and recent geological data.Paper presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission held in Sofia, 1988. 相似文献