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1.
介绍了基于水文气象途径的地区线性矩法的概念,通过基于次序统计量的线性矩进行参数估计与基于水文气象一致区的地区分析法相结合,以太湖流域1d时段的年极值降雨资料为例,进行暴雨频率分析。应用水文气象一致区的判别准则,将太湖流域划分为8个水文气象一致区;综合考虑三种拟合优度检测方法,选择1~8区的最优分布线型分别为:GEV、GLO、GEV、GEV、GNO、GNO、GEV、GNO;根据地区分析法原理,估算各雨量站的暴雨频率设计值。分析表明:太湖流域各重现期下的年极值降雨空间分布形态基本一致,西南山区是太湖流域的暴雨高风险区,应该在地区防洪规划中引起重视。结果表明:地区线性矩法具有很高的学术和实用价值,建议在全国范围内推广,作为防洪规划的顶层设计和基础工作,以满足工程防洪设计、地区防洪规划、山洪预警和城市防涝防洪规划等方面的需求。 相似文献
2.
The classical extreme value theory based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is applied to the wave height estimate based on wave hindcast data covering a period of 31?years for a location in the eastern Arabian Sea. Practical concern such as the threshold selection and model validation is discussed. Estimates of wave height having different return periods are compared with estimates obtained from different distributions. On comparing the distributions fitted to the GEV with annual maximum approach and GPD with peaks over threshold approach have indicated that both GEV and GPD models gave similar or comparable wave height for the study area since there is no multiple storm event in a year. Influence of seasonality on wave height having different return period is also studied. 相似文献
3.
城市地区暴雨洪灾发生频繁，合理计算设计暴雨是解决城市洪涝的重要前提。采用随机暴雨移置方法（Stochastic Storm Transposition，SST），设定暴雨移置区并提取出暴雨目录，通过区域性概率重采样与暴雨空间变换相结合的方式进行降雨频率分析，估计本地化的极端暴雨频率。以上海地区为例，研究发现暴雨移置区内暴雨分布具有空间异质性，暴雨随机移置概率不均，计算得到的设计暴雨方案包含了降雨时空分布信息，在不同重现期下设计暴雨的时空结构存在变异性，说明传统方法中采用的简化雨型和均一化空间分布假设会增加设计暴雨的不确定性。 相似文献
4.
城市地区暴雨洪灾发生频繁，合理计算设计暴雨是解决城市洪涝的重要前提。采用随机暴雨移置方法（Stochastic Storm Transposition，SST），设定暴雨移置区并提取出暴雨目录，通过区域性概率重采样与暴雨空间变换相结合的方式进行降雨频率分析，估计本地化的极端暴雨频率。以上海地区为例，研究发现暴雨移置区内暴雨分布具有空间异质性，暴雨随机移置概率不均，计算得到的设计暴雨方案包含了降雨时空分布信息，在不同重现期下设计暴雨的时空结构存在变异性，说明传统方法中采用的简化雨型和均一化空间分布假设会增加设计暴雨的不确定性。 相似文献
5.
6.
Flood frequency analysis of river swat using Log Pearson type 3, Generalized Extreme Value,Normal, and Gumbel Max distribution methods 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Muhammad Farooq Muhammad Shafique Muhammad Shahzad Khattak 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(9):216
In Pakistan, floods are among the most devastating and recurring natural hazards. Flood hazard assessment requires flood event magnitude and probability of occurrence. Flood frequency analysis is the most common technique used for the at-site estimation of flood recurrence magnitude. This paper evaluates four most commonly used distribution methods, i.e., Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Log Pearson 3 (LP3), Gumbel Max, and Normal for the flood frequency and estimation of flood recurrence. Different hydrological stations data namely Khwazakhela, Chakdarra, Panjkora, and Munda Headwork located at Swat river was taken from Provincial Irrigation Department, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The analysis is done for 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return periods by using annual maximum discharge data from 1980 to 2016 (37 yr). Three goodness-of-fit tests were applied to the fitted distributions, i.e., Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling, and Chi-squared at 5% significance level. Results indicate that LP3 and GEV were ranked top two distributions at all locations while Gumbel Max and Normal were the least fitted having rank 3 and 4, respectively. Based on the goodness-of-fit ranking, LP3 was selected for the estimation of flood magnitude and return periods at Khwazakhela. Designed hydrographs based on probabilistic approach and flood 2010 hydrograph are presented for flood simulation. 相似文献
7.
为了科学评估变化环境下城市地区降水结构变化和深入认识特大型城市降水极值演变特征,以北京市为例,采用《北京市暴雨图集》中6种历时（10 min、30 min、1 h、6 h、24 h和72 h）的年最大暴雨统计数据和北京地区45个雨量站点1960-2012年汛期（6-9月）逐日降水观测资料,分别选择年最大值法和百分位阈值法,基于暴雨图集中的6种历时暴雨的统计特征值和两种百分位阈值下（95%和99%）的3种极端降水指标（发生次数、降水量和降水贡献率）分析北京地区降水极值的时空变化特征。研究结果表明:① 北京地区降水极值的空间分布受地形特征和城市化发展等因素影响而呈现出从东向西递减的趋势,且形成了局部区域高值中心;② 近50年来北京地区极端降水发生频次、极端降水量和极端降水的贡献率均表现出显著的下降趋势,在95%（99%）阈值条件下极端降水发生次数、极端降水量和极端降水贡献率的下降速率分别为0.13次/10 a（0.04次/10 a）、11.59 mm/10a（5.28 mm/a）和2%/10 a（1%/10 a）;③ 两个阶段（1960-1985年和1986-2012年）的城区与近郊的极端降水指标差异表现不同,1960-1985年在极端降水频次方面郊区占优,而极端降水量和贡献率则是城区较高,1986-2012年3个指标均表现为城区较高。 相似文献
8.
Ayman Georges Awadallah Abdelrahman Younis Elsayed Ahmed Mohammed Abdelbaky 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(20):456
The temporal distribution of the design storm is an important input in hydrological models. This research aims to develop design storm profiles representative of arid and hyper-arid areas based on actual storm recordings. Two hundred thirty-six rainfall storms were collected from seventeen rainfall gauges that cover the coastal zone of Oman for the period from 1993 to 2007. Storms were classified into four categories according to their total durations. Design storm hyetographs were derived from raw rainfall records for all four categories using the Alternating Block Method (ABM) and were also computed by ABM applied on the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. Both design storm profiles were compared and it was found that the ABM_IDF storm profiles were equivalent to the four ABM_Storms profiles from a practical point of view as they produce similar peak discharges. The storm profiles developed in the current research were also compared to the commonly used Soil Conservation Service (SCS) dimensionless distributions and the UK50 storm profiles. The results showed that the most conservative commonly used SCS type II and the UK50 summer profiles are not safe to be used in design purposes in arid and hyper arid regions, despite their wide utilization in many codes of practice in these regions. The study recommends using the newly developed dimensionless storm profiles derived from the actual records. 相似文献
9.
GEV干旱指数及其在气象干旱预测和监测中的应用和检验 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
介绍了一种新的基于广义极值分布(Generalized Extreme Value,GEV)的干旱指数的构建过程及其原理。并利用1951—2010年中国地区160个气象台站的逐月降水资料,选择6个代表台站,检验1951—2010年60年间预测的干旱和实际干旱事件发生的吻合程度;利用2009—2010年资料检验GEV指数和实际发生的干旱事件在月尺度上的监测效果。结果表明,利用GEV方法定义的干旱指数能较好地监测干旱事件的发生和发展,与目前广泛使用的Ci指数监测结果较为一致。同时这种指数也能用于某一地区干旱事件的预测和干旱等级的划分。对干旱业务监测和预测有重要的参考意义。但该指数对站点疏密有一定的依赖性,站点稀疏的区域存在着一些误差。 相似文献
10.
台风风暴潮影响下潮滩沉积动力模拟初探--以江苏如东海岸为例 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
以江苏如东潮滩为研究区,采用沉积动力学垂向二维概念模型来模拟正常天气和台风期间潮滩沉积的空间分布特征,探讨台风风暴潮对潮滩正常沉积层序的改造作用.模拟结果表明,在涨落潮时间-流速对称特征明显的如东海岸,潮汐作用使潮滩沉积呈显著的分带性,且剖面形态向“双凸形”演化,两个“凸点”分别位于平均高潮位和平均低潮位附近.在台风期间风暴增水效应下,开边界悬沙浓度差异将导致潮滩冲淤和沉积分布格局的变化,潮上带和潮间带上部均堆积泥质沉积物,潮间带中下部在风暴过程中普遍遭受不同程度的砂质沉积物侵蚀或之后堆积泥质沉积物,在沉积层序中形成风暴冲刷面.因此,潮滩的风暴沉积记录存在于潮间带上部或更高部位.以此模型为基础,可进一步综合考虑极浅水边界层水动力结构、沉积物粒度分布变化、波-流联合作用、台风降水、互花米草等生物活动、潮沟摆动及人工围垦等因素,从而建立风暴事件在沉积层序中的时间序列,更好地解译沉积记录中的古环境信息. 相似文献
11.
Satoshi Yamamoto 《Mathematical Geology》1993,25(7):867-879
Modern marine sediments can be classified into terrigenous, hemipelagic, and pelagic types according to the distances from the land for the sites recovered and in terms of lithological characteristics of sediments. Ancient cherts are the best sedimentary rocks to reconstruct ancient depositional environments and hemipelagic and pelagic cherts can be identified in terms of lithologic and stratigraphic characteristics. However, geochemical characteristics of modern sediments and ancient cherts can discriminate them into these three types. Particularly, the degree of correlation between Fe and Mg in clay minerals is the most effective criterion for the classification, because the concentration of pelagic clay minerals in which the Fe/Mg ratio is constant may become indices for the classification into the three types. The correlation coefficient and goodness-of-fit to a certain regression line were used as indices of the classification and calculated for several sets of modern sediments and ancient cherts totalling to more than 400 samples. The correlation coefficients and the student-t values for the coefficients become better classification indices than the goodness-of-fit andF-values of the analysis of variance. Goodness-of-fit andF-values can be only used as subsidiary indices for the main classification indices of the correlation coefficients. The classification on the basis of the degree of correlation between Fe and Mg is effective and this approach can be used for other major chemical elements such as Al, K, and Na, if some sequential values of chemical analyses are available. 相似文献
12.
O.R. García Cueto N. Santillán Soto M. Quintero Núñez S. Ojeda Benítez N. Velázquez Limón 《Atmósfera》2013,26(4):509-520
Extreme weather events can have severe consequences for the population and the environment. Therefore, in this study a temporal trend of annual temperatures was built with a time series from 1950 to 2010 for Mexicali, Mexico, and estimates of 5- to 100-year return periods are provided by modeling of summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures. A non-parametric Kendall’s tau test and the Sen’s slope estimator were used to compute trends. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to the approximation of block maxima and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to values over a predetermined threshold. Due to the non-stationary characteristic of the series of temperature values, the temporal trend was included as a covariable in the location parameter and substantial improvements were observed, particularly with the extreme minimum temperature, compared to that obtained with the GEV with no covariable and with the GPD. A positive and significant statistically trend in both summer maximum temperature and winter minimum temperature was found. By the end of 21st century the extreme maximum temperature could be 2 to 3 °C higher than current, and the winter could be less severe, as the probabilistic model suggests increases of 7 to 9 °C in the extreme minimum temperature with respect to the base period. The foreseeable consequences on Mexicali city are discussed. 相似文献
13.
The annual maximum earthquake magnitudes around Taiwan from 1900 to 2009 are presented in this paper. Using the distribution
of the AMEM, a probabilistic framework to estimate the recurrence probability of a large-size earthquake is also proposed
and an illustration was made in this paper. The mean value of the 110-AMEM is 6.433, and the coefficient of variation is around
10%. The results of two goodness-of-fit tests show that the Gamma and lognormal distributions are relatively suitable to represent
the AMEM around Taiwan among five common probability distributions. Using the proposed approach, the recurrence probability
is 4% for an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7.5 in a 1-year period around Taiwan. More site-specifically, the probability
is around 5% in Central Taiwan for such an earthquake to occur in a 50-year period. 相似文献
14.
青海省极端气温事件的气候变化特征研究 总被引：9，自引：3，他引：6
选用青海省37个气象站点1961-2011年近51 a, 逐日气温(最高、 最低、 平均)资料, 采用国际通用的极端气温指数定义计算了9种极端气温指数, 并分析其主要气候特征.结果表明: 近51 a青海省极端气温呈明显上升趋势, 极端冷指标(霜冻、 结冰日数、 冷夜、 冷昼指数)呈下降趋势, 而极端暖指标(夏天日数、 暖夜、 暖昼指数)呈上升趋势, 且极端冷指标的减少幅度高于极端暖指标的增加幅度.空间分布上, 极端气温指数在全省呈一致的上升(下降)趋势分布.在近51 a的时间尺度上各种极端气温指数都存在多个较明显的周期, 如较短的3~8 a的准周期, 以及13 a、 17 a、 27 a的年代际周期特征.青海省年平均气温与极端气温指数有很高的相关性, 气候变暖突变前后极端气温指数表现出明显差异: 在变暖突变发生后, 霜冻日数、 冷夜指数、 冷昼指数、 结冰日数明显减少, 夏天日数、 暖夜指数及暖昼指数明显增加, 其中相对指数几乎呈倍数显著变化, 表明极端气温指数对气候变暖有很好的响应. 相似文献
15.
The storm impact scale of Sallenger (J Coast Res 890–895, 2000) was tested on a partially engineered beach. This scale is supposed to provide a convenient tool for coastal managers to categorize the storm impact at the shore. It is based on the relation between the elevation of storm wave runup and the elevation of a critical geomorphic or man-made structures in the present study. Two different approaches were tested to estimate the elevation of extreme storm wave runup: (1) a parametric model based on offshore wave conditions and local beach slope and (2) the XBeach process-based model that solves implicitly the runup. The study shows comparisons between impact regimes computed with the two methods and those derived from video observations acquired during 2 weeks while the site was battered by three consecutive storms. Storms scenario including wave conditions with higher return periods and different tidal range were also investigated. The advantages and disadvantages of the two methods used to compute extreme water level are then compared, and guidelines for the development of early warning system are drawn. 相似文献
16.
Based on the operational standard indices, the prediction skills of the Western-Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and South-Asian High (SAH) using 2019 real-time forecasts derived from the Global Ensemble Prediction System of GRAPES (GRAPES-GEPS) in China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Numerical Prediction Center were evaluated and the effects of different ensemble approaches on the prediction skills of WPSH and SAH indices were further investigated in this study. The results show that for WPSH, the GRAPES-GEPS has its highest prediction skill for the ridge line index, considerably high skill for the intensity and area indices, but relatively low skill for the western boundary index, and for SAH, it has comparatively high skill for the intensity and center latitude indices, but relatively lower skill for the center longitude index. Prediction errors of the GRAPES-GEPS for the WPSH forecasts are featured by the weaker intensity and area and the more eastward center position, compared with the observation, which can be effectively reduced by employing the maximum/minimum approach from ensemble members, relative to the ensemble mean approach. By direct comparison, prediction errors of the GRAPES-GEPS for the SAH forecasts are featured by the weaker intensity and the more southward center position, which tends to be slightly reduced using the ensemble mean approach. Finally, for the extreme forecast, the maximum approach provides superior performance for both WPSH and SAH than the ensemble mean approach, which can be validated in terms of the two extreme cases. These results clearly indicate that the maximum approach could better improve the GRAPES-GEPS performance for the extreme forecasting of the two primary circulation patterns than the traditional ensemble mean approach. 相似文献
17.
Chew-Hung Chang 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(3):667-679
The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 found an average increase in global surface
temperature of 0.74°C between 1906 and 2005. There is general agreement in the literature that the frequency of extreme precipitation
events in Southeast Asia will increase with global warming. In particular, the potential impact of associated storm hazards
will render the densely populated countries in Southeast Asia vulnerable to such changes in precipitation events. One main
adaptation strategy given such impending changes is preparedness. Using existing literature and historical meteorological
data, this paper establishes that Southeast Asia is indeed experiencing storms of higher intensities and more frequently.
Two case of extreme storm event in Southeast Asia, the extreme high rainfall event in December 2006 in Southern Johor and
Typhoon Vamei, are presented to consider the implications of the increased storm activities due to global warming. These two
examples also discuss the need for preparedness in adapting to the impact of global warming. 相似文献
18.
Yangtze River annual maxima data are available for 1877–1981, for Yichang near the Three Gorges Dam. However, subsequent annual maxima seem not available outside China. Therefore, published methodologies applied to Yangtze discharge maxima cannot always be checked independently against data, despite papers appearing in international journals. The point is illustrated with respect to apparent anomalies in parameter estimation for the generalised extreme value distribution (GEV) applied to Yichang annual maxima. Specifically, Wang et al. (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31: 2281–2296, 2017) list GEV parameter estimates derived from the period 1890–2000. These parameter values give underfit of all Yichang annual maxima between 1877 and 1981. In contrast, the GEV parameter estimates of Sutcliffe (J Hydrol 96: 159–171) paper give better data fits. It may be that the underfit is related to the proposed methodology, which should then be treated with caution. Alternatively, there may be just a typographical error in a listed parameter value. Whatever the cause, the point is made that it would be helpful to have complete time series of hydrological data from China to confirm published analyses.
相似文献19.
广义极值分布频率曲线,也可采用均值、变差系数和偏态系数等三个统计参数来进行计算。通过建立离均系数表,可以方便地进行频率分析计算。现以澧水某站年最大流量系列为例,采用广义极值分布的适线法进行频率分析计算,成果表明广义极值分布具有一定适应性。 相似文献