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1.
《Marine pollution bulletin》2017,114(1):397-407
The occurrence and distribution of target estrogenic compounds in a highly urbanized industry-impacted coastal bay were investigated, and contamination profiles were evaluated by estimating total estradiol equivalents (∑ EEQs) and risk quotients (RQs). Phenolic compounds were the most abundant xenoestrogens, but seldom showed contribution to the ∑ EEQs. The diethylstilbestrol (DES) and 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2) were the major contributors followed by 17β-estradiol (E2) in comparison with a slight contribution from estrone (E1) and estriol (E3). Both ∑ EEQs and RQs indicated likely adverse effects posed on resident organisms. Further, multivariate statistical method comprehensively revealed pollution status by visualized factor scores and identified multiple “hotspots” of estrogenic sources, demonstrating the presence of complex pollution risk gradients inside and particularly outside of bay area. Overall, this study favors the integrative utilization of pollution indices and factor analysis as powerful tool to scientifically diagnose the pollution characterization of human-derived chemicals for better management decisions in aquatic environments.  相似文献   

2.
In recent years, several species of marine mammals and birds have been affected by uncommon diseases and unusual mortalities. While several possible causative factors have been attributed for these events, a prominent suspect is exposure to man-made toxic contaminants. Particularly, some of these man-made chemicals can disrupt normal endocrine physiology in animals. At CMES, our studies focus on exposure and toxic effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals, particularly organochlorines, in higher trophic level wildlife. Endocrine disrupting chemicals, such as organochlorine insecticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, organotins etc. are found in tissues of a wide variety of wildlife. Extremely high concentrations have been found in animals afflicted with diseases and/or victims of mass mortalities. Elevated contamination by organochlorines has been found in open sea animals such as cetaceans and albatrosses, which seemed to be attributable to their low capacity to metabolize toxic persistent contaminants. Significant correlations between biochemical parameters (serum hormone concentrations and cytochrome P450 enzyme activities) and residues of endocrine disrupting chemicals were found in some species of marine animals, which indicates that these chemicals may impose toxic effects in animals even at the current levels of exposure. In general, water birds and marine mammals accumulated the dioxin-like compounds with much higher concentrations than humans, implying higher risk from exposure in wildlife. The future issues of endocrine disrupting chemicals in humans and wildlife will have to be focused in developing countries.  相似文献   

3.
Quantifying human cancer risk arising from exposure to contaminated groundwater is complicated by the many hydrogeological, environmental, and toxicological uncertainties involved. In this study, we used Monte Carlo simulation to estimate cancer risk associated with tetrachloroethene (PCE) dissolved in groundwater by linking three separate models for: (1) reactive contaminant transport; (2) human exposure pathways; and (3) the PCE cancer potency factor. The hydrogeologic model incorporates an analytical solution for a one-dimensional advective–dispersive–reactive transport equation to determine the PCE concentration in a water supply well located at a fixed distance from a continuous source. The pathway model incorporates PCE exposure through ingestion, inhalation, and dermal contact. The toxicological model combines epidemiological data from eight rodent bioassays of PCE exposure in the form of a composite cumulative distribution frequency curve for the human PCE cancer potency factor. We assessed the relative importance of individual model variables through their correlation with expected cancer risk calculated in an ensemble of Monte Carlo simulations with 20,000 trials. For the scenarios evaluated, three factors were most highly correlated with cancer risk: (1) the microbiological decay constant for PCE in groundwater, (2) the linear groundwater pore velocity, and (3) the cancer potency factor. We then extended our analysis beyond conventional expected value risk assessment using the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM) to generate expected-value functions conditional to a 1 in 100,000 increased cancer risk threshold. This approach accounts for low probability/high impact outcomes separately from the conventional unconditional expected values. Thus, information on potential worst-case outcomes can be quantified for decision makers. Using PMRM, we evaluated the cost-benefit relationship of implementing several postulated risk management alternatives intended to mitigate the expected and conditional cancer risk. Our results emphasize the importance of hydrogeologic models in risk assessment, but also illustrate the importance of integrating environmental and toxicological uncertainty. When coupled with the PMRM, models integrating uncertainty in transport, exposure, and potency constitute an effective risk assessment tool for use within a risk-based corrective action (RBCA) framework.  相似文献   

4.
Exposure estimation using repeated blood concentration measurements   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  
Physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) modeling has been well established to study the distributions of chemicals in target tissues. In addition, the hierarchical Bayesian statistical approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations has been applied successfully for parameter estimation. The aim was to estimate the constant inhalation exposure concentration (assumed) using a PBTK model based on repeated measurements in venous blood, so that exposures could be estimated. By treating the constant exterior exposure as an unknown parameter of a four-compartment PBTK model, we applied MCMC simulations to estimate the exposure based on a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The dataset on 16 volunteers exposed to 100 ppm (≅0.538 mg/L) trichloroethylene vapors for 4 h was reanalyzed as an illustration. Cases of time-dependent exposures with a constant mean were also studied via 100 simulated datasets. The posterior geometric mean of 0.571, with narrow 95% posterior confidence interval (CI) (0.506, 0.645), estimated the true trichloroethylene inhalation concentration (0.538 mg/L) with very high precision. Also, the proposed method estimated the overall constant mean of the simulated time-dependent exposure scenarios well with slightly wider 95% CIs. The proposed method justifies the accuracy of exposure estimation from biomonitoring data using PBTK model and MCMC simulations from a real dataset and simulation studies numerically, which provides a starting point for future applications in occupational exposure assessment.  相似文献   

5.
Probabilistic-fuzzy health risk modeling   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  
Health risk analysis of multi-pathway exposure to contaminated water involves the use of mechanistic models that include many uncertain and highly variable parameters. Currently, the uncertainties in these models are treated using statistical approaches. However, not all uncertainties in data or model parameters are due to randomness. Other sources of imprecision that may lead to uncertainty include scarce or incomplete data, measurement error, data obtained from expert judgment, or subjective interpretation of available information. These kinds of uncertainties and also the non-random uncertainty cannot be treated solely by statistical methods. In this paper we propose the use of fuzzy set theory together with probability theory to incorporate uncertainties into the health risk analysis. We identify this approach as probabilistic-fuzzy risk assessment (PFRA). Based on the form of available information, fuzzy set theory, probability theory, or a combination of both can be used to incorporate parameter uncertainty and variability into mechanistic risk assessment models. In this study, tap water concentration is used as the source of contamination in the human exposure model. Ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact are considered as multiple exposure pathways. The tap water concentration of the contaminant and cancer potency factors for ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact are treated as fuzzy variables while the remaining model parameters are treated using probability density functions. Combined utilization of fuzzy and random variables produces membership functions of risk to individuals at different fractiles of risk as well as probability distributions of risk for various alpha-cut levels of the membership function. The proposed method provides a robust approach in evaluating human health risk to exposure when there is both uncertainty and variability in model parameters. PFRA allows utilization of certain types of information which have not been used directly in existing risk assessment methods.  相似文献   

6.
Seismic Hazard Assessment: Issues and Alternatives   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been proclaimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications.  相似文献   

7.
The main goals of this article are to analyze the use of simplified deterministic nonlinear static procedures for assessing the seismic response of buildings and to evaluate the influence that the uncertainties in the mechanical properties of the materials and in the features of the seismic actions have in the uncertainties of the structural response. A reinforced concrete building is used as a guiding case study. In the calculation of the expected spectral displacement, deterministic nonlinear static methods are simple and straightforward. For not severe earthquakes these approaches lead to somewhat conservative but adequate results when compared to more sophisticated procedures involving nonlinear dynamic analyses. Concerning the probabilistic assessment, the strength properties of the materials, concrete and steel, and the seismic action are considered as random variables. The Monte Carlo method is then used to analyze the structural response of the building. The obtained results show that significant uncertainties are expected; uncertainties in the structural response increase with the severity of the seismic actions. The major influence in the randomness of the structural response comes from the randomness of the seismic action. A useful example for selected earthquake scenarios is used to illustrate the applicability of the probabilistic approach for assessing expected damage and risk. An important conclusion of this work is the need of broaching the fragility of the buildings and expected damage assessment issues from a probabilistic perspective.  相似文献   

8.
At a utility service center, gasoline from an underground storage tank had leaked into subsurface vadose zone soils for several years. To remediate the site, a soil vapor extraction (SVE) system was installed and operated. At the completion of the SVE operation, gasoline-containing residues in several confirmation soil borings exceeded agency-mandated cleanup levels. Rather than continue with SVE, a risk-based approach was developed to evaluate what levels of gasoline-containing residues could be left in the soil and still protect human health. The risk-based approach consisted of simulating the fate of chemical residues through the vadose zone and then into both the ground water and atmosphere. Receptor point concentrations were predicted, and health risks were assessed. The risk assessment concluded that ingestion of contaminated ground water and inhalation of air while showering were the largest potential contributors to risk, and that risks associated with inhalation of vapor-containing ambient air are small. However, all predicted risks are below the acceptable risk levels of 10−6 individual cancer risk probability and 1.0 hazard index. Therefore, the lead agency accepted the recommendation that the site requires no further remediation. The service center continues normal operations today.  相似文献   

9.
Seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods. However, there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment affected by the near-field of large earthquakes. Therefore, we established a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method that can characterize the entire process of ground motion propagation based on stochastic finite-fault simulation, and we chose the site of the Xiluodu dam to demonstrate the method. This method can characterize earthquake source properties more realistically than other methods and consider factors such as the path and site attenuation of seismic waves. It also has high computational efficiency and is convenient for engineering applications. We first analyzed the complexity of seismogenic structures in the Xiluodu dam site area, and then an evaluation system for ground motion parameters that considers various uncertainties is constructed based on a stochastic finite-fault simulation. Finally, we assessed the seismic hazard of the dam site area comprehensively. The proposed method was able to take into account the complexity of the seismogenic structures affecting the dam site and provide multi-level parameter evaluation results corresponding to different risk levels. These results can be used to construct a dam safety assessment system of an earthquake in advance that provides technical support for rapidly and accurately assessing the post-earthquake damage state of a dam, thus determining the influence of an earthquake on dam safety and mitigating the risk of potential secondary disasters.  相似文献   

10.
An approximate seismic risk assessment procedure for building structures, which involves pushover analysis that is performed utilizing a deterministic structural model and uncertainty analysis at the level of the equivalent SDOF model, is introduced. Such an approach is computationally significantly less demanding in comparison with procedures based on uncertainty analysis at the level of the entire structure, but still allows for explicit consideration of the effect of record‐to‐record variability and modelling uncertainties. A new feature of the proposed pushover‐based method is the so‐called probabilistic SDOF model. Herein, the proposed methodology is illustrated only for reinforced concrete (RC) frames, although it could be implemented in the case of any building structure, provided that an appropriate probabilistic SDOF model is available. An extensive parametric analysis has been performed within the scope of this study in order to develop a probabilistic SDOF model, which could be used for the seismic risk assessment of both code‐conforming and old, that is, non code‐conforming RC frames. Based on the results of risk analysis for the four selected examples, it is shown that the proposed procedure can provide conservative estimates of seismic risk with reasonable accuracy, in spite of the employed simplifications and the relatively small number of Monte Carlo simulations with Latin hypercube sampling, which are performed at the level of the SDOF model. An indication of the possible default values of dispersion measures for limit‐state intensities in the case of low to medium‐height RC frames is also presented. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
In the past, arithmetic and geometric means have both been used to characterise pathogen densities in samples used for microbial risk assessment models. The calculation of total (annual) risk is based on cumulative independent (daily) exposures and the use of an exponential dose–response model, such as that used for exposure to Giardia or Cryptosporidium. Mathematical analysis suggests that the arithmetic mean is the appropriate measure of central tendency for microbial concentration with respect to repeated samples of daily exposure in risk assessment. This is despite frequent characterisation of microbial density by the geometric mean, since the microbial distributions may be Log normal or skewed in nature. Mathematical derivation supporting the use of the arithmetic mean has been based on deterministic analysis, prior assumptions and definitions, the use of point-estimates of probability, and has not included from the outset the influence of an actual distribution for microbial densities. We address these issues by experiments using two real-world pathogen datasets, together with Monte Carlo simulation, and it is revealed that the arithmetic mean also holds in the case of a daily dose with a finite distribution in microbial density, even when the distribution is very highly-skewed, as often occurs in environmental samples. Further, for simplicity, in many risk assessment models, the daily infection risk is assumed to be the same for each day of the year and is represented by a single value, which is then used in the calculation of p Σ, which is a numerical estimate of annual risk, P Σ, and we highlight the fact that is simply a function of the geometric mean of the daily complementary risk probabilities (although it is sometimes approximated by the arithmetic mean of daily risk in the low dose case). Finally, the risk estimate is an imprecise probability with no indication of error and we investigate and clarify the distinction between risk and uncertainty assessment with respect to the predictive model used for total risk assessment.  相似文献   

12.
High concentrations of air pollutants in the ambient environment can result in breathing problems with human communities. Effective assessment of health-impact risk from air pollution is important for supporting decisions of the related detection, prevention, and correction efforts. However, the quality of information available for environmental/health risk assessment is often not satisfactory enough to be presented as deterministic numbers. Stochastic method is one of the methods for tackling those uncertainties, by which uncertain information can be presented as probability distributions. However, if the uncertainties can not be presented as probabilities, they can then be handled through fuzzy membership functions. In this study, an integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling (IFSM) approach is developed for assessing air pollution impacts towards asthma susceptibility. This development is based on Monte Carlo simulation for the fate of SO2 in the ambient environment, examination of SO2 concentrations based on the simulation results, quantification of evaluation criteria using fuzzy membership functions, and risk assessment based on the combined fuzzy-stochastic information. The IFSM entails (a) simulation for the fate of pollutants in ambient environment, with the consideration of source/medium uncertainties, (b) formulation of fuzzy air quality management criteria under uncertain human-exposure pathways, exposure dynamics, and SPG-response variations, and (c) integrated risk assessment under complexities of the combined fuzzy/stochastic inputs of contamination level and health effect (i.e., asthma susceptibility). The developed IFSM is applied to a study of regional air quality management. Reasonable results have been generated, which are useful for evaluating health risks from air pollution. They also provide support for regional environmental management and urban planning.  相似文献   

13.
The development and use of models for predicting exposures are increasingly common and are essential for many risk assessments of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Exposure assessments conducted by the EPA to assist regulatory or policy decisions are often challenged to demonstrate their “scientific validity”. Model validation has thus inevitably become a major concern of both EPA officials and the regulated community, sufficiently so that the EPA's Risk Assessment Forum is considering guidance for model validation. The present paper seeks to codify the issues and extensive foregoing discussion of validation with special reference to the development and use of models for predicting the impact of novel chemicals on the environment. Its preparation has been part of the process in formulating a White Paper for the EPA's Risk Assessment Forum. Its subject matter has been drawn from a variety of fields, including ecosystem analysis, surface water quality management, the contamination of groundwaters from high-level nuclear waste, and the control of air quality. The philosophical and conceptual bases of model validation are reviewed, from which it is apparent that validation should be understood as a task of product (or tool) design, for which some form of protocol for quality assurance will ultimately be needed. The commonly used procedures and methods of model validation are also reviewed, including the analysis of uncertainty. Following a survey of past attempts at resolving the issue of model validation, we close by introducing the notion of a model having maximum relevance to the performance of a specific task, such as, for example, a predictive exposure assessment.  相似文献   

14.
On the problem of model validation for predictive exposure assessments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The development and use of models for predicting exposures are increasingly common and are essential for many risk assessments of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Exposure assessments conducted by the EPA to assist regulatory or policy decisions are often challenged to demonstrate their “scientific validity”. Model validation has thus inevitably become a major concern of both EPA officials and the regulated community, sufficiently so that the EPA's Risk Assessment Forum is considering guidance for model validation. The present paper seeks to codify the issues and extensive foregoing discussion of validation with special reference to the development and use of models for predicting the impact of novel chemicals on the environment. Its preparation has been part of the process in formulating a White Paper for the EPA's Risk Assessment Forum. Its subject matter has been drawn from a variety of fields, including ecosystem analysis, surface water quality management, the contamination of groundwaters from high-level nuclear waste, and the control of air quality. The philosophical and conceptual bases of model validation are reviewed, from which it is apparent that validation should be understood as a task of product (or tool) design, for which some form of protocol for quality assurance will ultimately be needed. The commonly used procedures and methods of model validation are also reviewed, including the analysis of uncertainty. Following a survey of past attempts at resolving the issue of model validation, we close by introducing the notion of a model having maximum relevance to the performance of a specific task, such as, for example, a predictive exposure assessment.  相似文献   

15.
Zhang J  Clare J  Guo J 《Ground water》2012,50(4):633-638
In the evaluation of potential risk from ingestion of groundwater near an impacted site, numerical simulation of fate and transport processes of chemicals of concern is often required. If there is potential concern about multiple chemicals, numerical simulation of each chemical separately is often needed. In this paper, a semi-analytical solution is presented based on a numerical solution of the transport of a conservative and nonreactive tracer. When multiple chemicals undergoing sorption and first-order degradation need to be modeled, we can avoid performing individual numerical simulations for each chemical by applying the semi-analytical solution. Numerical test runs were conducted to verify the semi-analytical solution; simulation results reveal that the concentrations derived from the semi-analytical solution are identical to those derived from the individual numerical fate and transport model simulations. The semi-analytical solution requires steady-state flow conditions, no continuing contaminant source, and similar initial source concentration distributions.  相似文献   

16.
Radon and its short-lived progeny are exposed to most human exposures as a natural source of radiation. Many studies have presumed that one of the most common incidences of lung cancer, colon cancer, and stomach cancer is caused by radon-contaminated water. In this study, water was collected from different groundwater sources in the Hafr Al Batin area, Saudi Arabia, and the radon concentration was investigated using an electronic portable radon detector. The annual effective dose of radon exposure by ingestion and inhalation of water is calculated from that radon concentration for the different age groups to assess the risk of radon exposure. The calculated annual effective doses are then compared with the international standard of risk limit as directed by the international organizations. The estimated radon concentration for groundwater samples is found to be between 0.03 and 3.20 Bq/L with an average value of 1.16 Bq/L. These estimated values are below the safety limits set by the USEPA and EAEC and far below those recommended by the UNSCEAR, EC, and WHO standards. The calculated annual effective dose of radon exposure for the different age groups ranging from infant to adult is found to be in the range of 0.05 to 16.24 μSv/year, with a mean value of 5.89 μSv/year, which is in the safe limit recommended by the EC and WHO. The obtained results of this present study will support the authority and regulators who are responsible for controlling and strategizing to ensure public safety against radon exposure.  相似文献   

17.
核设施地震危险性估计中的几个问题   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文
胡聿贤 《地震地质》1993,15(4):308-316
总结了地震安全性估计方法的现状与发展趋势,指出我国在用确定性方法确定设计地震动时,有些不确定性并未考虑,不少主观决定并非总是足够安全的。文中推荐了概率方法。场地影响分析中,特别是座落于软基上的核设施,需要对输入面的选择及土层反应分析中的多种不确定因素进行考虑。最后指出场地地震相关反应谱对座落于软基上的核设施的重要意义,以及大远震与小近震对反应谱的不同影响  相似文献   

18.
Approaches to risk assessment of underflooding of areas by groundwater during extreme floods, using probabilistic and deterministic methods are considered. The latter methods are based on indicators of groundwater sustainability to adverse impacts.  相似文献   

19.
Definitions of hazard and risk of groundwater pollution are given. A deterministic method for the assessment of groundwater pollution risk using estimates of groundwater protection against and vulnerability to pollution and stability indicators of groundwater quality is considered. Also presented are the principal methodological approaches to the assessment of groundwater protection against pollution and the formation of the structure of indicators and indices characterizing the stability of groundwater quality. The structure of hazard, risks, and damages associated with groundwater pollution is shown. Expert appraisal method is used for the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.  相似文献   

20.
太浦河是太湖流域重要跨省界河流,沿岸区域污染源众多,下游分布重要水源地,存在突发水污染潜在风险,迫切需要开展区域污染源潜在风险评估,为突发水污染事件的风险防控提供科学依据.本研究通过太浦河周边区域的污染源调研,明确污染源的空间分布与污染源强,确定评估区域的主要污染物（化学需氧量、氨氮、锑、重金属铬、油品、危险化学品）,综合考虑污染源、河流水文、沿岸社会经济等因素,筛选突发水污染潜在风险评估指标,构建评估指标体系,评估突发水污染事件的综合风险,识别太浦河周边区域的主要突发水污染潜在风险源.研究结果表明：太浦河周边区域的高突发水污染风险区呈现片状或斑块状分布,主要包括大型污水处理厂区域、大型工业企业区域、加油站和危险化学品仓库集中分布区、太浦河沿岸工业企业区域、水源地周边工业企业区域,总面积为22 km2,占太浦河污染源风险评估范围总面积的1.4%,是突发水污染事件防控的重点区域.  相似文献   

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