首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
We study the effect of solar activity on the incidence of myocardial infarction deaths (MID) in Mexico. We work with 129,917 cases along 1996–1999, grouping the data by sex and age, and considering the solar cycle phases. At higher frequencies the circaseptan is the most persistent periodicity in MID occurrence. During solar minimum the circaseptan period is not detectable compared with solar maximum. During Forbush decreases and geomagnetic activity, most cases present a higher average MID occurrence. Furthermore the MID rate is higher as the level of the geomagnetic perturbation increases. Male MID rates are in general higher than female rates and the difference increases as the geomagnetic perturbation increases. The age group with the lowest MID incidence is 25 to 44 years, the age group of 65 years is the most vulnerable. We conclude that solar activity does affect MID at low geomagnetic latitudes and that the solar maximum is the most hazardous time for MID incidence.  相似文献   

2.
From maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) of short lengths ofAa indices of geomagnetic activity, the characteristics of the strength of the 27-day and 13.5-day signals for each of the solar cycles 11 to 21 are highlighted. It is shown that the 13.5-day signal is a near permanent feature in geomagnetic activity. The Hale-cycle (22 yr) effect could be seen in the average magnitude of the 27-day signal with greater strengths in the even cycles. No clear annual variation in the strength is noticed, contrary to some earlier known results.  相似文献   

3.
Our main aim was to identify the impacts of natural (solar activity, geomagnetic disturbances) and man-made factors on suicides in northwestern Russia. Data on a total of 908 suicides in the town of Kirovsk (Murmansk oblast) were analyzed for the period from 1948 to 2010. The rates of suicides were analyzed with respect to seasons of the year. We have identified three maxima in the seasonal distribution of the number of suicides [March–May (P < 0.001), July (P = 0.006), October (P < 0.001)], which coincide with maxima in the distribution of the most intense (Ap > 150 nT) magnetic storms. Multi-taper method-spectrum analysis revealed periodicities (~9–10 and ~25 years) which may be related to the main cycles of solar activity. The periods of ~3.1–3.5 and ~2–2.3 years are probably the third and the fifth harmonics of 11-year solar cycle, respectively. These periods are correlating with similar periodic variations in geomagnetic aa-indexes and meteorological parameters. It was determined the statistically significant (r = 0.8; P = 0.005) relationship between suicide and Cu emissions from Cu–Ni smelters of Russian North for the period 1997–2009.  相似文献   

4.
Results on the spectral analysis using geomagnetic field at three low latitude stations and the planetary magnetic activity index have shown peaks in the power densities in a broad band centred around 146-day period. This periodic behaviour appears to be close to that shown by the solar flare activity index for the same interval. It is suggested that the geoeffectiveness of the flare activity signal in different phases of the solar cycle can be better worked out using long series of ground-based geomagnetic data.  相似文献   

5.
In the present work, spectral analysis has been applied to determine the presence and statistical significance of climate cycles in long-term data series from different rainfall and gauging stations located in the Tramuntana Range, in the north-western sector of the island of Majorca. Climate signals recorded previously in the Mediterranean region have been identified: the ENSO, NAO, HALE, QBO and Sun Spot cycles as well as others related to solar activity; the most powerful signals correspond to the annual cycle, followed by the 6-month and NAO cycles. The incorporation of data derived from gauging stations contributes to better climate signal detection as local and exceptional influences are eliminated. Simulations have been performed for each rainfall/gauging station, using the most significant climate cycles obtained by means of the power spectrum. A good correlation between rainfall/flow values and simulated cycles has been obtained. The NAO and ENSO cycles are the most influential in the rainy periods, and specifically the NAO cycle, where a good correlation between episodes of high rainfall/flow and high values of ANAOI can be observed. At a second stage, landslides dated and recorded in the Tramuntana Range since 1954 (174 events) have been correlated with the simulated cycles obtaining good results, as the landslide events match rainfall peaks well. The correlation for the past decade (since 2005), when a detailed landslide inventory is available, also reveals a coincidence between landslide events and climate cycles, and specifically NAO and ENSO cycles. That is the case of the period 2008–2010, when numerous mass movements took place, and when the largest movement of the inventory was recorded. Results show a potential rainy period in the Tramuntana Range for the coming years (with maximum values around year 2021), when conditions similar to those related to the 2008–2010 event could take place again. The methodology presented in this work can contribute to the prediction of temporal, extreme hydrological events in order to design short-/medium-term mitigation strategies on a regional scale.  相似文献   

6.
南半球对流层气候年代际变化及其与太阳活动的联系   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  
通过南半球对流层温度场谱分析和逐次滤波分析发现，南半球对流层大气温度场半个多世纪以来呈现明显的持续升温趋势，升温幅度由低层到高层逐步增加，其中地面层1 000 hPa年升温率为0.013℃/a，对流层中部500 hPa年升温率为0.019℃/ a，对流层上部300 hPa年升温率为0.036℃/ a；滤除南半球大气温度场的趋势变化，发现南半球大气温度场从地面层直至对流层顶广泛盛行着十分显著的与太阳磁场磁性22年周期变化相一致的变化周期。太阳磁场磁性周期变化趋势略有超前，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳磁场周期性变化的响应。进一步分析还发现，南半球从地面层1 000 hPa到对流层顶，再到平流层中部10 hPa各层次大气温度变化22年周期分量振荡位相基本一致，周期振幅由低层到高层迅速增大，说明太阳磁场变化对对流层高层比低层影响大，对平流层影响更大。其中地面层1 000 hPa温度场的22年变化周期是在滤除趋势变化和11年周期之后才显现出来的，所以太阳磁场磁性周期变化对地面层气候的影响较小并且经常处于被掩盖状态；南半球地面层1 000 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化之后显示出十分显著的与太阳活动11年周期相一致的变化周期，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳活动11周期性变化的响应。对流层上层300 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化和22年周期之后也显示出11年变化周期，而对流层中部500 hPa则无此周期反应，说明太阳活动11年周期对地面层1 000 hPa大气气候影响最明显，对流层中上层影响较弱。  相似文献   

7.
Gumbel's extreme-value theory is used to estimate the probability of occurrence and average return periods for earthquakes in the Indian Ocean seismic belts. The nature of seismic activity, and annual and 50 year maximum magnitudes of earthquakes are also discussed. The earthquake occurrence model of autocorrelation lends support for the periodicity of the most probable earthquake in these belts. The percentage probability of recurrence of earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above has been estimated for the region mentioned.  相似文献   

8.
Over the last few years, various researches have reached the conclusion that cosmic ray variations and geomagnetic disturbances are related to the condition of the human physiological state. In this study, medical data concerning the number of incidents of different types of cardiac arrhythmias for the time period 1983–1992, which refer to 1902 patients in Tbilisi, Georgia, were used. The smoothing method and the Pearson r-coefficients were used to examine the possible effect of different solar and geomagnetic activity parameters and cosmic ray intensity variations on the different types of arrhythmias. The time interval under examination was separated into two different time periods, which coincided with the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field occurred in the years 1989–1990, and as a result, a different behavior of all the above-mentioned parameters as well as of the different types of arrhythmias was noticed during the two time intervals. In addition, changing of polarity sign of the solar magnetic field was found to affect the sign of correlation between the incidence of arrhythmias and the aforementioned parameters. The primary and secondary maxima observed in the solar parameters during the solar cycle 22, also appeared in several types of arrhythmias with a time lag of about 5 months.  相似文献   

9.
The volume and style of volcanism change periodically, with cycles of three main scales, which have different causes and effects. Short cycles of volcanic activity last from tens to thousands of years and are associated with periodic accumulation of magma in shallow chambers and its subsequent eruptions. The eruptions either have internal causes or are triggered externally by variations in solar activity, tidal friction, and Earth’s rotation speed. Medium-scale cycles, hundreds of thousands to millions of years long, are due to changes in spreading and subduction rates. Long cycles (30–120 Ma) are related to ascent of mantle plumes, which take away material and heat from the core-mantle boundary and change the convection rate. These appear to be the major controls of the average periodicity. Acceleration of asthenospheric convection caused by periodic plume activity pulses can change spreading rates and, correspondingly, the relative positions of moving plates. The medium-scale periodicity of volcanism is illustrated by the examples of Kamchatka and Japan, where the intensity of subduction magmatism changes periodically in response to the opening of back-arc basins (Shikoku, Sea of Japan, and South Kurile basin).  相似文献   

10.
Historical to up‐to‐date data of the minute variations in the solid Earth's rotation are subjected to a comprehensive time‐frequency wavelet analysis. The length‐of‐day for the period 1962–2012 confirms the presence of a prominent, robust 6‐year periodicity and reveals an anomalously strong 18.6‐year tidal oscillation as well as a ~13‐year quasi‐periodic signal. The polar‐motion excitation for the period 1900–2012 validates the existence of the ~26‐year Markowitz wobble and shows an ~8‐year quasi‐periodic signal, but no appreciable 18.6‐year periodicity. Although it is known that exchanges of angular momentum with the geophysical fluids are responsible for the rotational variations of the solid Earth, the exact physical mechanisms involved on interannual‐to‐decadal timescales are still far from understood.  相似文献   

11.
The method of complex demodulation has been used here to compute the amplitude and phase of a signal present in a geomagnetic series using, Banks’ method. It is found that the results are quite accurate when four or more continuous cycles of the signal of interest are present. The same limitations have also been observed when band-pass filters are used to isolate a signal. The information on phase is always correct. It is concluded that complex demodulation will give correct results for periodic variations like 11-year, 27-day, Sq or pulsations; but will give small values of amplitude for signals like sudden impulses or bays. The latter is not a limitation in conductivity studies where ratios likeZ/H, Z/D orH/D are mostly used in calculations. It has been shown that even with the records of one magnetic storm the cause of anomalies can be accurately identified which otherwise would need a large number of events.  相似文献   

12.
We have analysed ring-width records of two Miocene coniferous trees with an absolute age of 15–20 million years. Such data may reflect solar periodicities from the prehistoric past. Evidence for a main period of ～ 12.5 years has been found. This is near the present basic solar activity period of ～ 11 years. Other periodic components appear at 220, 150 and 53 years, respectively, which may also be related to solar variations.  相似文献   

13.
The characteristic time scales for variations in the differential rotation of the solar corona are determined using measurements of the intensity of the FeXIV 5303 Å coronal line made from 1939–2004. Drift waves of the variations in the rotational speed with an 11-year periodicity can be distinguished. Moving averages with time intervals from two to five years are used to identify torsional waves. In addition, longer-period variations in the rotational speed can be distinguished when longer averaging intervals are used. When the interval used for the moving average is increased to 8–12 years, a quasi-22-year rotational period appears. The low-latitude corona rotates more slowly in odd cycles than in even cycles. Increasing the duration of the averaging interval further shows that rapid rotation at low latitudes was observed in 1940–1950 and 1990–2000, while slow rotation was observed in 1960–1980, possibly suggesting the presence of a 55-year period in the rotational variations. Long-term variations are found in the rotation of polar regions. The rotational variations for high-latitude corona are in antiphase with those for the low-latitude corona. The origins of zones of anomalous coronal rotation and their dynamics in the global activity cycle are discussed.  相似文献   

14.
Study of the response of geomagnetic activity to five different kinds of solar events reveals that an average north-south asymmetry of about 15% exists which diminishes with enhanced geomagnetic activity. The response of the geomagnetic field is quite significant only when high speed solar wind stream in association with sector boundary of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) or solar proton streams near sector boundary sweeps past the earth. When the frequency of occurrence of indices of geomagnetic activity is considered, the index zero shows a marked difference in its response characteristics for the southern hemisphere. This appears to be a real feature and not attributable to any artefact of the index or its derivation.  相似文献   

15.
Accurately determined focal coordinates of earthquakes which occurred in the Hellenic arc between 1964 and 1979 have been used to check the suggestion made ten years ago for a Benioff zone in the Hellenic arc. These recent data leave no doubt that the foci of the intermediate focal depth earthquakes in the Hellenic arc form a well-developed Benioff zone of amphitheatrical shape which dips from the convex (eastern Mediterranean) to the concave (Aegean) part of the arc.

Evidence, based on the time distribution of the intermediate focal depth earthquakes in the Hellenic arc during the last two centuries, indicates that this deep seismic activity follows a periodic pattern. Quiescence periods of the order of six decades are followed by very active periods of about two decades. If this periodicity, which seems to be compatible with recent ideas on the deep tectonics of the area, is true, a new period of high-rate intermediate focal depth activity is expected to break in about twenty five years.  相似文献   


16.
Solar wind velocity control of low latitude geomagnetic field both on long and short term basis is studied. It is shown that semiannual averages of the low latitude field is inversely related to solar wind velocity and that there is a dominant local time dependence of the relationship. Strongest correlation are confined to the local afternoon hours. It is also shown that for a duration when the solar wind velocity exhibits significant recurrent pattern the low latitude geomagnetic field also depicts strong solar synodic rotation periodicity of 27 days with significant coherence with velocity. The low latitude field on a short term basis is influenced by variable solar wind velocity with a delay of about 1–2 days. During the period of systematic recurrent pattern in solar wind velocity even the quiet-time night field at equatorial and low latitudes show a strong dependence on velocity indicative of the solar wind control of the quiet-time proton belt encompassing the earth.  相似文献   

17.
Timeseries of estimated temperature have been combined to create global or hemispheric climate series over periods exceeding 1000 yr. The data used in these studies, however, may be subject to dating errors. It is shown that when timeseries with dating error are combined, the noise in the data smoothes periodic signals but leaves linear trends intact. This means that the effect of dating error of sample data in a timeseries reconstruction is to smooth out any signals (waves, cycles) that may be present. The purpose of this study was to develop signal extraction methods that will work for this type of historical data. The method used was nonlinear estimation of sample series where dating error has been added by Monte Carlo sampling. Several algorithms were tested for handling the dating error problem. Results were that using nonlinear model fitting, the periods of signals can be identified even from the averaged data. In a second stage of the estimation procedure, the cycle magnitudes can be estimated. Very good fits were achieved for two example cases. Temperature estimation error (white noise due to the use of proxies) was also considered and the method was extended to cover this case with quite good results. Using the new estimation methods, the information inherent in multiple series can be used to overcome the problem of dating error.  相似文献   

18.
Variations of sedimentation rate within a basin over geologic time are a time series that can be filtered into several cyclic wave curves. Based on back-stripping and the empirical mode decomposition method, the cores from 14 wells in the Tarim Basin were selected to do filtering analysis. Four cycles or quasi-cycles (33 Ma, 64.4 Ma, 103.6 Ma, and 224 Ma) were obtained. Among these, the 33 Ma period, which was related to the internal earth activity, an external force, or a combination of the two, was the most obvious. The 64.4 Ma period corresponded to the solar system crossing the galaxy plane or the periodic melting of inner-earth material. The 103.6 Ma period was related with plate collisional tectonism around the Tarim Plate. The 224 Ma period was related to one galaxy year and may also be related to the aesthenospherical convection cycle.  相似文献   

19.
To study the characteristic of plasma bubbles in the topside ionosphere during the solar minima, we have analyzed a large database of post-sunset plasma density measurement acquired during ∼5104 equatorial crossings made by Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F14 in 2005. On 675 of these crossings, equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) events were observed as intervals of depleted and irregular plasma densities that degrade communication and navigation signals. We have analyzed these EPB events to study their distributions with month, season and longitude. To test for possible dependence of EPB occurrence at topside altitudes on the level of magnetic activity, we compared the distributions of one year database with those of Kp index at the time of equatorial crossings by the DMSP satellites. We also examined the response of the evening sector, low-latitude ionosphere during eight magnetic storms with minimum Dst ≤ −100 nT. We observed that EPBs occurred regularly during geomagnetic storms, especially in the initial and main phases but can be suppressed sometimes for days, after prolonged activity during recovery phases. These results are discussed according to the other reported results.  相似文献   

20.
SCL与中国东部气候年代际变化   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  
据宇地磁耦合原理,利用太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)的变化及其与地磁场(文中主要考虑地热)的关系,模拟计算并重建了中国东部历史时期的气温序列变化,除了个别时段外,模拟曲线与修正后的竺可桢曲线十分相似;分析了2500a来中国东部气候的年代际变化.结果表明,该曲线能较好地再现2500a来中国东部气候的冷暖变化.对竺氏曲线中有争议的几个冷暖时段,如公元150—350年的温暖期、1050—1150年的小气候适宜期等,模拟结果与后来研究者分析的结果相合.中唐至五代的气候冷暖交替变化不稳定.该曲线也能清晰地反映出小冰期中国东部气候各个时段的变化以及现代气候的变化趋势。  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号