共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
E. Zimmermann 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(5):648-656
The Thornthwaite and Mather water budget is a simple and frequently applicable tool to estimate surpluses of water, which are not stored in the soil profile. Combining it with the empiric CN-method of the US Soil Conservation Service (US-SCS), which is applied to daily rainfall records, it is possible to estimate the runoff, and this way, from the difference between surpluses and runoff, to estimate the net infiltration that would recharge a phreatic aquifer. In order to apply both methods during a sequence of years, it is necessary to predict the number of rain events per month, and the rainfall depth for each event. In this work, the author proposes a methodology based on the theorem of Bayes to estimate the number of occurrences of rainy events in a considered month conditioning the forecast to the monthly rainfall. In addition, an exponential distribution to generate rainfall depth knowing the monthly rainfall was done. Both algorithms were applied in four stations of the southern region of Santa Fe province (Argentina). More than 7,600 forecasts of rain occurrences and rainfall depths were compared with the observed records. Moreover, the runoff values estimated by means of the US-SCS method, using the observed rainfall and using rainfalls predicted with the algorithms were also compared. In both cases, the obtained results were also very satisfactory. The proposed methodologies allow the correct application of the balance of Thornthwaite and Mather together with the US-SCS method and a good forecast of monthly runoff and net infiltration. 相似文献
2.
3.
基于遗传算法的新安江模型日模拟参数优选研究 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
在概念性水文模型的参数率定中,目前还没有一个传统优化方法能够提供保证足够高效和稳定性的算法。为了克服传统优化方法中局部收敛性的缺点,近年来利用遗传算法通过计算机准确稳定地进行概念性水文模型的参数优选的尝试得到越来越多的重视和发展。目前优选水文模型待定参数,大多是从次洪模型的方面去讨论,有关日模拟模型的遗传算法参数优选讨论的较少。本文系统分析了基于遗传算法的新安江模型日模拟参数的自动优选,同时针对遗传算法在模型参数众多的情况下时间效率低下问题,通过利用新安江模型参数分层原理与模型参数敏感性分析对优选结果影响,提出一套简化的日模型参数遗传算法优选方案。经过流域模拟检验,该优选方案可行,运行效率高,可以作为类似模型遗传算法参数率定快速、有效的方案。 相似文献
4.
Hossein Mojaddadi Rizeei Biswajeet Pradhan Maryam Adel Saharkhiz 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(3):53
The effects of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics have directly affected the surface runoff and flooding events. Hence, current study proposes a full-packaged model to monitor the changes in surface runoff in addition to forecast of the future surface runoff based on LULC and precipitation variations. On one hand, six different LULC classes were extracted from Spot-5 satellite image. Conjointly, land transformation model (LTM) was used to detect the LULC pixel changes from 2000 to 2010 as well as predict the 2020 ones. On the other hand, the time series-autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to forecast the amount of rainfall in 2020. The ARIMA parameters were calibrated and fitted by latest Taguchi method. To simulate the maximum probable surface runoff, distributed soil conservation service-curve number (SCS-CN) model was applied. The comparison results showed that firstly, deforestation and urbanization have been occurred upon the given time, and they are anticipated to increase as well. Secondly, the amount of rainfall has non-stationary declined since 2000 till 2015 and this trend is estimated to continue by 2020. Thirdly, due to damaging changes in LULC, the surface runoff has been also increased till 2010 and it is forecasted to gradually exceed by 2020. Generally, model calibrations and accuracy assessments have been indicated, using distributed-GIS-based SCS-CN model in combination with the LTM and ARIMA models are an efficient and reliable approach for detecting, monitoring, and forecasting surface runoff. 相似文献
5.
为开展河川径流的水源解析,构建过程描述和本构参数两方面均有较强物理性的分布式水文模型。以雅鲁藏布江为对象,利用水文分区曲线对降雨、融雪和融冰等不同水源主导的流量过程进行划分,以划分的流量过程线子集对相应水文过程参数进行分步率定,提高了水文模型参数的物理性,以此构建了雅鲁藏布江流域分布式水文模型及参数集,内部多个水文站点和流域雪水当量的验证表明模型具有良好的性能。基于模型解析了2001-2015年间雅鲁藏布江的径流水源组成,降雨、融雪、融冰水源对总径流量贡献的比例分别为66%、20%和14%。本文方法对高山寒区径流的水源解析有普遍意义,结果对理解气候变化下雅鲁藏布江径流变化趋势有参考价值。 相似文献
6.
为开展河川径流的水源解析，构建过程描述和本构参数两方面均有较强物理性的分布式水文模型。以雅鲁藏布江为对象，利用水文分区曲线对降雨、融雪和融冰等不同水源主导的流量过程进行划分，以划分的流量过程线子集对相应水文过程参数进行分步率定，提高了水文模型参数的物理性，以此构建了雅鲁藏布江流域分布式水文模型及参数集，内部多个水文站点和流域雪水当量的验证表明模型具有良好的性能。基于模型解析了2001—2015年间雅鲁藏布江的径流水源组成，降雨、融雪、融冰水源对总径流量贡献的比例分别为66%、20%和14%。本文方法对高山寒区径流的水源解析有普遍意义，结果对理解气候变化下雅鲁藏布江径流变化趋势有参考价值。 相似文献
7.
M. C. Sashikkumar S. Selvam V. Lenin Kalyanasundaram J. Colins Johnny 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2017,89(1):57-64
Groundwater is a dynamic and replenishable natural resource. The numerical modeling techniques serve as a tool to assess the effect of artificial recharge from the water conservation structures and its response with the aquifers under different recharge conditions. The objective of the present study is to identify the suitable sites for artificial recharge structures to augment groundwater resources and assess its performance through the integrated approach of Geographic Information System (GIS) and numerical groundwater modeling techniques using MODFLOW software for the watershed located in the Kodaganar river basin, Dindigul district, Tamil Nadu. Thematic layers such as geology, geomorphology, soil, runoff, land use and slope were integrated to prepare the groundwater prospect and recharge site map. These potential zones were categorized as good (23%), moderate (54%), and poor (23%) zones with respect to the assigned weightage of different thematic layers. The major artificial recharge structures like percolation ponds and check dams were recommended based on the drainage morphology in the watershed. Finally, a threelayer groundwater flow model was developed. The model was calibrated in two stages, which involved steady and transient state condition. The transient calibration was carried out for the time period from January 1989 to December 2008. The groundwater model was validated after model calibration. The prediction scenario was carried out after the transient calibration for the time period of year up to 2013. The results show that there is 15 to 38% increase in groundwater quantity due to artificial recharge. The present study is useful to assess the effect of artificial recharge from the proposed artificial structures by integrating GIS and groundwater model together to arrive at reasonable results. 相似文献
8.
Sustainable groundwater management requires knowledge of recharge. Recharge is also an important parameter in groundwater flow and transport models. Spatial variation in recharge due to distributed land-us.e, soil texture, topography, groundwater level, and hydrometeorological conditions should be accounted for in recharge estimation. However, conventional point-estimates of recharge are not easily extrapolated or regionalized. In this study, a spatially distributed water balance model WetSpass was used to simulate long-term average recharge using land-use, soil texture, topography, and hydrometeorological parameters in Dire Dawa, a semiarid region of Ethiopia. WetSpass is a physically based methodology for estimation of the long-term average spatial distribution of surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge. The long-term temporal and spatial average annual rainfall of 626 mm was distributed as: surface runoff of 126 mm (20%), evapotranspiration of 468 mm (75%), and recharge of 28 mm (5%). This recharge corresponds to 817 l/s for the 920.12 km2 study area, which is less than the often-assumed 1,000 l/s recharge for the Dire Dawa groundwater catchment. 相似文献
9.
A methodology for making initial estimates of groundwater recharge from groundwater vulnerability mapping 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Recharge to an aquifer can be estimated by first calculating the effective rainfall using a soil moisture budgeting technique, and then by applying a recharge coefficient to indicate the proportion of this effective rainfall that contributes to groundwater recharge. In the Republic of Ireland, the recharge coefficient is determined mainly by the permeability and thickness of the superficial deposits (subsoils) that overlie the country’s aquifers. The properties of these subsoils also influence groundwater vulnerability, and a methodology has been developed for determining the recharge coefficient using the groundwater vulnerability classification. The results of four case studies have been used to develop a quantified link between subsoil permeability, aquifer vulnerability, recharge and runoff. Recharge and runoff coefficients are each classed into three groupings: high, intermediate and low. A high recharge coefficient equates to a low runoff coefficient, and vice versa. A GIS-based tool enables preliminary estimates of recharge to be made using these recharge coefficient groupings. Potential recharge is calculated as the product of effective rainfall and recharge coefficient. The actual recharge is then calculated taking account of the ability of the aquifer to accept the available recharge. The methodology could be applied to other temperate climate zones where the main aquifers have a substantial covering of superficial deposits. 相似文献
10.
Temporal and spatial changes of the hydrological cycle are the consequences of climate variations. In addition to changes in surface runoff with possible floods and droughts, climate variations may affect groundwater through alteration of groundwater recharge with consequences for future water management. This study investigates the impact of climate change, according to the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and B1, on groundwater recharge in the catchment area of a fissured aquifer in the Black Forest, Germany, which has sparse groundwater data. The study uses a water-balance model considering a conceptual approach for groundwater-surface water exchange. River discharge data are used for model calibration and validation. The results show temporal and spatial changes in groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge is progressively reduced for summer during the twenty-first century. The annual sum of groundwater recharge is affected negatively for scenarios A1B and A2. On average, groundwater recharge during the twenty-first century is reduced mainly for the lower parts of the valley and increased for the upper parts of the valley and the crests. The reduced storage of water as snow during winter due to projected higher air temperatures causes an important relative increase in rainfall and, therefore, higher groundwater recharge and river discharge. 相似文献
11.
以海拉尔河上游流域作为研究区域,基于Arc GIS构建SWAT分布式水文模型对流域水文过程进行模拟,通过对流域的基础数据整合,模型采用1999~2003年实测径流数据进行参数率定,将2004~2010年实测径流数据作为模型的验证期,对模型在海拉尔河上游的适用性进行研究。通过对月和年径流模拟值和实测值的比较,率定期和验证期的Nash系数Ens和相关系数R2分别在0.861~0.873和0.877~0.899之间。基于这两个评价标准可知:SWAT模型在海拉尔河上游流域有良好的适用性,可以为该流域的水资源管理提供依据。 相似文献
12.
Michael J. Friedel 《Natural Hazards》2008,46(1):15-34
A regularized joint inverse procedure is presented and used to estimate the magnitude of extreme rainfall events in ungauged
coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. Since streamflow measurements reflect
temporal and spatial rainfall information, peak-flow discharge is hypothesized to represent a similarity measure suitable
for regionalization. To test this hypothesis, peak-flow discharge values determined from streamflow recurrence information
(10-year, 25-year, and 100-year) collected outside the study basins are used to develop regional (country-wide) regression
equations. Peak-flow discharge derived from these equations together with preferred spatial parameter relations as soft prior
information are used to constrain the simultaneous calibration of 20 tributary basin models. The nonlinear range of uncertainty
in estimated parameter values (1 curve number and 3 recurrent rainfall amounts for each model) is determined using an inverse
calibration-constrained Monte Carlo approach. Cumulative probability distributions for rainfall amounts indicate differences
among basins for a given return period and an increase in magnitude and range among basins with increasing return interval.
Comparison of the estimated median rainfall amounts for all return periods were reasonable but larger (3.2–26%) than rainfall
estimates computed using the frequency-duration (traditional) approach and individual rain gauge data. The observed 25-year
recurrence rainfall amount at La Hachadura in the Paz River basin during Hurricane Mitch (1998) is similar in value to, but
outside and slightly less than, the estimated rainfall confidence limits. The similarity in joint inverse and traditionally
computed rainfall events, however, suggests that the rainfall observation may likely be due to under-catch and not model bias. 相似文献
13.
To study the application of the TOPMODEL and the Xin’anjiang model to rainfall runoff simulation in semi-humid regions, the Holtan excess infiltration runoff module was added to the TOPMODEL structure. The basin of the Heihe Jinpen Reservoir in Shaanxi Province, China, was selected as the study area. Rainfall and runoff data and digital elevation models were collected. The watershed topographic parameters and 21 floods that occurred from 2005 to 2013 were obtained to simulate rainfall runoff. Results show that the improved TOPMODEL and the Xin’anjiang model can effectively stimulate rainfall runoff. The average values of their Nash coefficient are 0.84 and 0.83, respectively, upon calibration, and 0.78 and 0.80, respectively, upon validation. The Xin’anjiang model performs slightly better than the improved TOPMODEL. The results of large flood peaks are better than those of ordinary floods. Both results can be used to simulate the rainfall runoff of a watershed. 相似文献
14.
In this study, an approach for runoff and recharge estimations that can be applied in arid regions which suffer from lack of data is presented. Estimating groundwater recharge in arid regions is an extremely important but difficult task, the main reason is the scarcity of data in arid regions. This is true for the Eastern Egyptian Desert where groundwater is used for irrigation purposes in agricultural reclamation along the Red Sea coast line. As a result of the scarcity of hydrologic information, the relation between rainfall and runoff was calculated depending on the paleo-flood hydrology information. Two models were used to calculate the rainfall–runoff relationships for El Hawashyia basin and Ghazala sub-basin. Two computer programs known as Gerinne (meaning channel in German) and SMADA6 (Stormwater Management and Design Aid, version 6) were conjunctively used for this purpose. As a result of the model applied to El Hawashyia basin, a rainfall event of a total of 18.3 mm with duration 3 h at the station of Hurghada, which has an exceedance probability of 5–10 %, produces a discharge volume of 10.2 × 106 m3 at the delta, outlet of the basin, as 4.7 mm of the rainfall infiltrates (recharge). For the Ghazala sub-basin, the model yields a runoff volume of 3.16 × 106 m3 transferred from a total rainfall of 25 mm over a period of 3 h, as 3.2 mm of it was lost as infiltration. 相似文献
15.
Shattri Mansor Nader Saadatkhah Zailani Khuzaimah Arnis Asmat Nor Aizam Adnan Siti Noradzah Adam 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(2):739-764
The objective of this paper is to develop a spatial temporal runoff modelling of local rainfall patterns effect on the plant cover hilly lands in Kelantan River Basin. Rainfall interception loss based on leaf area index, loss/infiltration on the ground surface, and runoff calculation were considered as the main plant cover effects on the runoff volume. In this regard, a hydrological and geotechnical grid-based regional model (integrated model) was performed using Microsoft Excel® and GIS framework system for deterministic modelling of rainfall-induced runoff by incorporating plant cover effects. The infiltration process of the current model was integrated with the precipitation distribution method and rainfall interception approach while the runoff analysis of integrated model was employed based on loss/infiltration water on the ground surface with consideration of water interception loss by canopy and the remaining surface water. In the following, the spatial temporal analysis of rainfall-induced runoff was performed using 10 days of hourly rainfall events at the end of December 2014 in Kelantan River Basin. The corresponding changes in pressure head and consequent rate of infiltration were calculated during rainfall events. Subsequently, flood volume is computed using local rainfall patterns, along with water interception loss and the remaining surface water in the study area. The results showed the land cover changes caused significant differences in hydrological response to surface water. The increase in runoff volume of the Kelantan River Basin is as a function of deforestation and urbanization, especially converting the forest area to agricultural land (i.e. rubber and mixed agriculture). 相似文献
16.
Many of the states in India have been facing water scarcity for more than 2 decades due to increased demand, because of the increase in population and higher living standards. Consequently, many states have almost fully utilized the available surface water resources and are exploiting groundwater to augment water supplies. Investigations were carried out in the upper Thurinjalar watershed of Ponnaiyar basin in Tamil Nadu to determine the availability of surface water and to investigate the potential for enhancing groundwater recharge to support the water demand in the watershed. Increasing the water availability would also enable the community to convert the 46% of the land area in the watershed that is currently underutilised into productive uses. The surface water potential for the upper Thurinjalar watershed was assessed by applying the USDA–NRCS model with daily time steps. This modelling exercise indicated that the annual runoff from the 323 km2 area of the watershed is 61 million m3. Groundwater recharge in the watershed was assessed by carrying out daily water balance method and indicated that about 43 million m3 of water from recharge is available on an annual basis or about 14% of annual rainfall. A simple regression model was developed to compute groundwater recharge from rainfall based on water balance computations and this was statistically verified. The modelling indicated that there is sufficient water available in the watershed to support current land uses and to increase the productivity of underutilised land in the area. The study also demonstrates that simple regression models can be used as an effective tool to compute groundwater recharge for ungauged basins with proper calibration. 相似文献
17.
The curve number (CN) is a hydrologic parameter used to describe the stormwater runoff potential for drainage areas, and it is a function of land use, soil type, and soil moisture. This study was conducted to estimate the potential runoff coefficient (PRC) using geographic information system (GIS) based on the area’s hydrologic soil group, land use, and slope and to determine the runoff volume. The soil map for the study area was developed using GPS data carried on to identify the soil texture to be used in building a soil hydrological groups map. Unsupervised and supervised classifications were done to Landsat 5/7 TM/ETM image to generate land-use and land-cover map. This map was reclassified into four main classes (forest, grass and shrub, cropland, and bare soil). Slope map for Al-Baha was generated from a 30-m digital elevation model. The GIS technique was used to combine the previous three maps into one map to generate PRC map. Annual runoff depth is derived based on the annual rainfall surplus and runoff coefficient per pixel using raster calculator tool in ArcGIS. An indication that in the absence of reliable ground measurements of rainfall product, it can satisfactorily be applied to estimate the spatial rainfall distribution based on values of R and R 2 (0.9998) obtained. Annual runoff generation from the study area ranged from 0 to 82 % of the total rainfall. Rainfall distribution in the study area shows the wise use of identifying suitable sites for rainwater harvesting, where most of the constructed dams are located in the higher rainfall areas. 相似文献
18.
针对流量资料极短时传统年径流频率分析方法——适线法不再适用的问题,分析了基于水文过程,由影响径流形成的因子推求年径流频率的一次二阶矩法的可行性,并讨论其在无流量资料流域应用中所存在的问题与解决方法。以江西省20个流域为研究对象,采用无参数Schreiber方程与单参数Fu-Zhang方程的水量平衡式作为年降雨—径流模型,结果表明:①一次二阶矩法的分析结果与实测年径流的经验频率较为吻合;②无流量资料流域中,忽略土壤含水量年间变化的作用,Fu-Zhang模型的分析结果比Schreiber模型好;③无流量资料流域中,Fu-Zhang模型中的参数ω可采用反距离权重法估计。 相似文献
19.
Modeling hydrological responses of karst spring to storm events: example of the Shuifang spring (Jinfo Mt., Chongqing,China) 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Reproduction of hydrographs at karst springs has been an approach of understanding the karst aquifer, which normally acts
as drains for the groundwater flow. However, its numerical modeling is difficult since factors for the internal geometry and
connectedness are unknown and hard to quantify. Hydrographs of the karst aquifer with well-developed conduits in Shuifang
spring catchment were obtained from the automatic gauging station at the spring orifice. Data as to the conduit system were
also obtained based on results and analyses of tracer tests. With these data, the hydrological responses of Shuifang spring
to storm events were simulated by storm water management model (SWMM) developed by USA EPA (Environmental Protection Agency).
Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies are used to compare the computed flow to the observed, which are 0.95 and 0.92 for calibration
and validation. SWMM was verified and applicable in karst conduit drainage system. The model illustrated correctly quick recharge
through conduits and slow and low inflow from the fissured aquifer matrix. The SCS-CN (soil conservation service-curve number)
infiltration method was used for computation of losses and runoff. Field tests indicated that permeability was extremely high
but different in karst area, which was less sensitive to the computed runoff when exceeded the common value provided by SWMM.
Therefore, an improved quantitative infiltration model for karst area will make SWMM possible to be a useful tool for assessing
and reproducing spring hydrographs. 相似文献
20.
This study examined changes in hydrograph characteristics of rural statuses to urban statuses on watershed divisions in Taiwan. The main approach was to relate applicable model parameters with the corresponding imperviousness based on calibration and verification using a semidistributed model and 102 events. The model structure is conceptual linear reservoirs with parallel-type cascaded storages which is represented by overland and channel coefficients. The hourly mean rainfall of the watershed and its divisions were calculated using the Kriging method. The time-variant rainfall losses were calculated using the constant percentage method. The spatial and temporal model inputs, division effective rainfall, were obtained by subtracting mean rainfall of divisions from the rainfall losses. In calibration, the storage values of 50 events derived using appropriate parameter bounds were more reasonable than those using inappropriate bounds. Based on the optimal interval method, the overland storages displayed more marked change than did channel storage in response to imperviousness changes. By contrast, the channel storages were unaffected by the changes in urbanization. The overland storages were related with the imperviousness by using the regression equations for determining their relationships in continuous changes of urbanized divisions. The verification of the regression relationships was based on 52 events. The results indicated that power linkage was an available selection for linking division parameters with the corresponding imperviousness. Finally, the study concludes (1) appropriate bounds in parameter calibration are useful for obtaining significant storage values and (2) the study results using these suitable storages indicated large changes in imperviousness on the downstream divisions, marked urbanization resulted in reduced the time to peak at least 10 %, the peak discharge exceeded an increment of 20–30 %. 相似文献