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1.
选用每天12∶00UTC时次的逐日ERA-Interim再分析资料,根据transformed Eulerian-mean(TEM)方程通过积分剩余速度珔v*,研究了1979—2011年间Brewer-Dobson(BD)环流的时空演变规律.并将其与downward control(DC)原理研究的结果进行比较,同时还探讨了平流层温度与BD环流之间的相互联系.结果表明,由TEM方程通过积分剩余速度珔v*估算的BD环流与利用DC原理估算的环流相比较,在热带地区的形势更加明显.环流在热带对流层中上层上升至平流层中下层,最高可达1hPa等压面附近.然后在热带外向极向下运动,最后在中高纬度下沉回到对流层.BD环流的上升中心及质量通量均随季节的变化产生变动,环流在冬半球的形势显著地强于夏半球.在春季和秋季期间,环流呈现出南北两半球的对称形势.从全球尺度物质输送的角度来看,在过去的33a间平流层BD环流的长期变化趋势是减弱的,且在平流层中下层减弱是明显的.环流的减弱趋势与纬向平均温度的长期变化趋势相匹配. 相似文献
2.
鄱阳湖流域过去1000 a径流模拟以及对气候变化响应研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
为研究过去千年尺度径流变化及其对气候变化的响应,以长江中游鄱阳湖流域为研究区,运用气候模式CCSM4和ECHAM5模拟过去1000 a气候数据,空间降尺度后驱动水文模型模拟了鄱阳湖流域过去近千年流域径流序列.利用快速傅里叶变换、小波分析等手段,分析流域极端径流变化特征、周期和该流域旱涝事件发生频率.结果表明:2种气候模式均能反映出中世纪暖期及小冰期阶段的干湿交替变化,且小冰期内中干旱状态维持时间较长;径流的丰枯变化与降水量变化具有较好的对应关系.CCSM4和ECHAM5模式下发生旱涝灾害与极大极小降水事件发生频率基本相同,径流丰枯变化与降水变化周期相近,均具有30 a左右的主周期,10~15、7 a左右的子周期.小波系数模平方图中30 a左右显著的能量信号揭示了该周期与北太平洋气候的主要环流机制的太平洋年代际振荡周期相近,因此,大气环流涛动是造成气候-水文变化的主要原因.研究结果拓展了基于近代60 a观测记录的流域水文变化的认识,探讨了千年时间长度下流域干湿变化特征和水文对气候响应的动力机制,有助于全面系统认识长江中游在全球气候暖化背景下旱涝极端水文事件的发生机制与变化规律. 相似文献
3.
Estimation of river flow by artificial neural networks and identification of input vectors susceptible to producing unreliable flow estimates 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Reliable river flow estimates are crucial for appropriate water resources planning and management. River flow forecasting can be conducted by conceptual or physical models, or data-driven black box models. Development of physically-based models requires an understanding of all the physical processes which impact a natural process and the interactions among them. Since identification of the relationships among these physical processes is very difficult, data-driven approaches have recently been utilized in hydrological modeling. Artificial neural networks are one of the widely used data-driven approaches for modeling hydrological processes. In this study, estimation of future monthly river flows for Guvenc River, Ankara is conducted using various artificial neural network models. Success of artificial neural network models relies on the availability of adequate data sets. A direct mapping from inputs to outputs without consideration of the complex relationships among the dependent and independent variables of the hydrological process is identified. In this study, past precipitation, river flow data, and the associated month are used to predict future river flows for Guvenc River. Impacts of various input patterns, number of training cycles, and initial values assigned to the weights of the connections are investigated. One of the major weaknesses of artificial neural networks is that they may fail to generate good estimates for extreme events, i.e. events that do not occur at all or often enough in the training data set. It is very important to be able to identify such unlikely events. A fuzzy c-means algorithm is used in this study to cluster the training and validation input vectors into regular and extreme events so that the user will have an idea about the risk of the artificial neural network model to generate unreliable results. 相似文献
4.
Synthetic seismograms can be very useful in aiding understanding of wave propagation through models of real media, verification of geologic models derived from interpretation of field seismic data, and understanding the nature and complexity of wave phenomena. If meaningful results are to be obtained from synthetic seismograms, the method of their computation must, in general, include three-dimensional geometrical spreading of wavefronts associated with highly concentrated (i.e., point) sources. The method should also adequately represent the seismic response of solid-layered media by including enough primaries, multiples, and converted phases to accurately approximate the total wavefield. In addition to these features, it is also very helpful, although not always essential, if the method of seismogram computation provides for explicit identification of wave type and ray path for each arrival. Various seismograms, computed via asymptotic ray theory and an automatic ray generation scheme, are presented for a highly simplified North Sea velocity structure. This is done to illustrate the importance of the above features and to demonstrate the inadequacy of the plane-wave synthesis method of seismogram computation for point sources and the limitations of acoustic models of solid-layered media. 相似文献
5.
Thermospheric behavior at high latitudes is well described at large spatial and long temporal scales by current thermospheric general circulation models. On the other hand, many small-scale horizontal and vertical motions observed from space and the ground do not appear in simulations by these models or in versions with a nested grid. This paper reviews small-scale motions which include strong vertical components and small-scale structures in the horizontal wind field. Synthesizing from available data sources, some general patterns of vertical wind disturbance are derived. These suggest that the variability often seen in observations of neutral wind and temperature at high latitudes can frequently be due to waves downstream of strong vertical disturbances. It is also concluded that since the general circulation models do not include the small-scale activity and its expected upward transport of molecular species, they must be underestimating the consequent ionospheric and radiant heat losses at F-region altitudes. 相似文献
6.
While finite-difference methods have been used extensively for many years to model wave propagation in elastic media, some of the more subtle effects observable in such models are very inadequately documented in the geophysical literature, especially in regard to their practical numerical consequences. In addition to the intended travelling waves, and the undesirable exponential instability revealed by the von Neumann test, typical second-order-time finite-difference equations also support drifting linear solutions, as can be verified, both theoretically and by numerical experiment. The necessity of these solutions, and their relationship to the incompleteness of the set of travelling-wave eigenfunctions of the finite-difference operator, can be exposed by a matrix-based analysis, and exact expressions for them can be obtained by using standard algebraic techniques. A further peculiarity of the finite-difference formulation is numerical anisotropy, which emerges in a grid of more than one spatial dimension, even when the modelled medium is intended to be isotropic. This anisotropy can be explained and quantified in terms of the exact eigenfunction solutions to the finite-difference equation, which, it is found, can be obtained in a simple, closed form, for a typical modern 3D staggered scheme. 相似文献
7.
This study analyses the performance of residential buildings in the town of Hveragerði in South Iceland during the 29 May 2008 Mw 6.3 Ölfus Earthquake. The earthquake occurred very close to the town, approximately 3–4 km from it. Ground shaking caused by the earthquake was recorded by a dense strong-motion array in the town. The array provided high-quality three-component ground acceleration data which is used to quantify a hazard scenario. In addition, surveys conducted in the town in the aftermath of the earthquake have provided information on macroseismic intensity at various locations in the town. Detailed information regarding the building stock in the town is collected, and their seismic vulnerability models are created by using building damage data obtained from the June 2000 South Iceland earthquakes. Damage to buildings are then simulated by using the scenario hazard and vulnerability models. Damage estimates were also obtained by conducting a survey. Simulated damage based on the scenario macroseismic intensity is found to be similar to damage estimated from survey data. The buildings performed very well during the earthquake—damage suffered was only 5 % of the insured value on the average. Correlation between actual damage and recorded ground-motion parameters is found to be statistically insignificant. No significant correlation of damage was observed, even with macroseismic intensity. Whereas significant correlation was observed between peak ground velocity and macroseismic intensity, neither of them appear to be good indicators of damage to buildings in the study area. This lack of correlation is partly due to good seismic capacity of buildings and partly due to the ordinal nature of macroseismic intensity scale. Consistent with experience from many past earthquakes, the survey results indicate that seismic risk in South Iceland is not so much due to collapse of buildings but rather due to damage to non-structural components and building contents. 相似文献
8.
Characterization of Earthquake Strong Ground Motion 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
— Some underwater landslides are triggered by strong ground motions caused by earthquakes. This paper reviews current concepts and trends in the characterization of strong ground motion. Improved empirical ground motion models have been derived from a strong motion data set that has grown markedly over the past decade. However, these empirical models have a large degree of uncertainty because the magnitude-distance-soil category parameterization of these models often oversimplifies reality. This reflects the fact that other conditions that are known to have an important influence on strong ground motions, such as near-fault rupture directivity effects, crustal waveguide effects, and basin response effects, are not treated as parameters of these simple models. Numerical ground motion models based on seismological theory that include these additional effects have been developed and extensively validated against recorded ground motions, and used to estimate the ground motions of past earthquakes and predict the ground motions of future scenario earthquakes. 相似文献
9.
10.
PD Dr. Kolumban Hutter 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1983,45(1):101-144
Density distribution and temperature and current data which were measured in Lake of Zürich and Lake of Lugano in two summer field programs are scrutinized and interpreted by means of hydrodynamic models. Barotropic surface seiches and baroclinic internal seiches are studied using a one-and two-layer model and measured data permit identification of the respective resonant periods. Wind induced barotropic and baroclinic circulation dynamics is also studied by means of three-dimensional finite difference models of the hydrodynamic viscous equations on the rotating earth. In general the predictions of these models agree favorably with observed data. 相似文献
11.
Igneous plutons frequently show chemical zoning. The most commonly documented zoning is with the lighter, more silicic, rocks in the centre of the body and the denser, more basic, rocks in the external zone (normal zoning). Less commonly, some plutons show reverse zoning so that the more basic rocks occupy the centre. Widespread evidence shows that zoning in many plutons is the result of interaction between basic and silicic melts.
This work studies, by means of finite difference numerical models, pluton zoning which is due to internal circulation in diapirs comprising two magmas of different composition. Diapirs are modelled here as buoyant isothermal spheres composed of two Newtonian fluids rising through a Newtonian ambient fluid. Ratios of viscosities and densities of the two fluids were varied and the results demonstrated two different styles of internal circulation in rising spheres. The first style, termed “coupled circulation”, is characterised by continuous overturning of both the fluids in a single cell, evolving through both normal and reverse compositional zoning. The overturns stir the fluids and enhance both magma mingling and mixing. Coupled circulation develops in spheres comprising fluids of similar densities and viscosities. As these properties become increasingly different the internal circulation tends to decouple. “Decoupled circulation”, is characterised by circulation of the fluids in two separate cells. Decoupling stops the overturns between the two magmas so that the diapir preserves a reverse zoning throughout its rise, with the denser fluid occupying the central zone. There is less possibility of magma mingling in diapirs undergoing decoupled circulation. Thus, pairs of magmas of similar properties, such as andesite and rhyolite, are most likely to develop coupled circulation leading to both normal and reverse zoning in diapirs; whereas magmas of very different properties, such as basalt and rhyolite, are most likely to decouple resulting in reverse zonation.
The models indicate that reverse zoning would be the most common internal pluton geometry if zoning were controlled by internal circulation alone. Model diapirs which rise along channels of warm, low viscosity wall-rock (hot Stokes' models) or low viscosity shear zones show an increased tendency towards coupled circulation and more intense mechanical stirring of the magmas. 相似文献
12.
Russell S. Harmon Henry P. Schwarcz James R. O&#x;Neil 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1979,42(2):254-266
D/H ratios of fluid inclusion waters extracted from230Th/234U-dated speleothems that were originally deposited under conditions of isotopic equilibrium should provide a direct estimate of the hydrogen isotopic composition of ancient meteoric waters. We present here D/H ratios for 47 fluid inclusion samples from thirteen speleothems deposited over the past 250,000 years at cave sites in Iowa, West Virginia, Kentucky and Missouri. At each site glacial-age waters are depleted in deuterium relative to those of interglacial age. The average interglacial/glacial shift in the hydrogen isotopic composition of meteoric precipitation over ice-free areas of east-central North America is estimated to be ?12‰. This shift is consistent with the present climatic models and can be explained in terms of the prevailing pattern of atmospheric circulation and an increased ocean-continent temperature gradient during glacial times which more than compensated for the increase in deuterium content of the world ocean. 相似文献
13.
Accurate short-term prediction of surface currents can improve the efficiency of search-and-rescue operations, oil-spill response, and marine operations. We developed a linear statistical model for predicting surface currents (up to 48?h in the future) based on a short time history of past HF-radar observations (past 48?h) and an optional forecast of surface winds. Our model used empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to capture spatial correlations in the HF-radar data and used a linear autoregression model to predict the temporal dynamics of the EOF coefficients. We tested the developed statistical model using historical observations of surface currents in Monterey Bay, California. The predicted particle trajectories separated from particles advected with HF-radar data at a rate of 4.4?km/day. The developed model was more accurate than an existing statistical model (drifter separation of 5.5?km/day) and a circulation model (drifter separation of 8.9?km/day). When the wind forecast was not available, the accuracy of our model degraded slightly (drifter separation of 4.9?km/day), but was still better than existing models. We found that the minimal length of the HF-radar data required to train an accurate statistical model was between 1 and 2?years, depending on the accuracy desired. Our evaluation showed that the developed model is accurate, is easier to implement and maintain than existing statistical and circulation models, and can be relocated to other coastal systems of similar complexity that have a sufficient history of HF-radar observations. 相似文献
14.
《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2015,(2)
Due to limited in situ data and diagnostic numerical models, the summer circulation structure and formation mechanism in the Beibu Gulf have always been in controversy in the past 50 years. Therefore, a new three-dimensional hindcast model was built within the northwestern South China Sea(SCS), forced with the daily averaged wind, heat flux, lateral flux, as well as tidal harmonic and eight major rivers discharges. And the east boundary was set up far away off the Qiongzhou Strait(QS). Lastly, the model results were consistent with not only the synchronous observation data from the project 908 but also the historical observed data. As a result, the summer circulation structure was revealed that the southern Gulf was occupied by an anticyclonic eddy whereas the northern Gulf was dominated by a cyclonic gyre. Although the circulation major structure was stable, its area and strength had yearly and monthly oscillation. The other three sensitive experiments indicated that the circulations in the southern and northern Gulf were driven by the SCS circulation and monsoon wind, respectively. After the theoretical analysis of the potential vorticity budget, it was further revealed the circulation in the northern Gulf was driven by the positive wind stress curl in summer. Besides, the river discharge was also significant as the vertical circulation had two layer structures outside the mouth of the Red River. Generally, this work calls for the further research on other subjects, such as ocean biogeochemical or marine fisheries. 相似文献
15.
Permeability is a transport property which is currently measured in Darcy units. Although this unit is very convenient for most purposes, its use prevents from recognizing that permeability has units of length squared. Physically, the square root of permeability can thus be seen as a characteristic length or a characteristic pore size. At the laboratory scale, the identification of this characteristic length is a good example of how experimental measurements and theoretical modelling can be integrated. Three distinct identifications are of current use, relying on three different techniques: image analysis of thin sections, mercury porosimetry and nitrogen adsorption. In each case, one or several theoretical models allow us to derive permeability from the experimental data (equivalent channel models, statistical models, effective media models, percolation and network models). Permeability varies with pressure and temperature and this is a decisive point for any extrapolation to crustal conditions. As far as pressure is concerned, most of the effect is due to cracks and a model which does not incorporate this fact will miss its goal. Temperature induced modifications can be the result of several processes: thermal cracking (due to thermal expansion mismatch and anisotropy, or to fluid pressure build up), and pressure solution are the two main ones. Experimental data on pressure and temperature effects are difficult to obtain but they are urgently needed. Finally, an important issue is: up to which point are these small scale data and models relevant when considering formations at the oil reservoir scale, or at the crust scale? At larger scales the identification of the characteristic scale is also a major goal which is examined. 相似文献
16.
The results of numerical models or of new observational programs are checked by comparing them with past observations. Also, it is desirable that the eddy diffusion coefficients used in two-dimensional models be derived from the same data set as the circulation statistics which the model outputs are checked against, so that all results refer to the same atmospheric conditions. For the first time, the three components of the eddy diffusion matrix, from 30–60 km, 80°N–10°S are computed, together with the means, variances and covariances of the wind and temperature through the same region using the same data set for 1960–76 and the same handling and analysis methods for all variables. Horizontal diffusivities,K
yy
, are obtained from the variance and integral time scale of the meridional wind speed. The present values are generally smaller than past estimates, presumably because temporal variations longer than a month have been removed in this work. Estimates ofK
yz
are based on the tentative assumption that the diffusivity is proportional to the slope of isentropic surfaces, and estimates ofK
zz
are based on the assumption that small-scale gravity waves are primarily responsible for vertical mixing. 相似文献
17.
Tae-Woong Kim Hosung Ahn 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(3):367-376
Missing data in daily rainfall records are very common in water engineering practice. However, they must be replaced by proper
estimates to be reliably used in hydrologic models. Presented herein is an effort to develop a new spatial daily rainfall
model that is specifically intended to fill in gaps in a daily rainfall dataset. The proposed model is different from a convectional
daily rainfall generation scheme in that it takes advantage of concurrent measurements at the nearby sites to increase the
accuracy of estimation. The model is based on a two-step approach to handle the occurrence and the amount of daily rainfalls
separately. This study tested four neural network classifiers for a rainfall occurrence processor, and two regression techniques
for a rainfall amount processor. The test results revealed that a probabilistic neural network approach is preferred for determining
the occurrence of daily rainfalls, and a stepwise regression with a log-transformation is recommended for estimating daily
rainfall amounts. 相似文献
18.
A. V. Desherevskii V. I. Zhuravlev A. N. Nikolsky A. Ya. Sidorin 《Seismic Instruments》2017,53(1):46-59
Time series of geophysical monitoring data are very specific. They can contain complicated irregular variations and nonstationary effects of various kinds. Time-varying noise, numerous gaps in the data, trends, technical drawbacks, and other hardly predictable features are often present in these time series. These peculiarities demand special methods and procedures for acquisition and analysis of the data. The first part of the paper discusses the peculiarities of the software for such time series, and a brief review of the methods for solving the task is given. In the second part of the paper, the universal software package WinABD developed by the authors for multivariable analysis of geophysical time series will be described. The technologies realized in the software package and intended for analysis of similar signals will be considered. 相似文献
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20.
Four new gravity field models from GOCE, two of them combined with GRACE, are compared here with EGM2008. The objectives are to look into the differences in consecutive ranges of the spherical harmonic expansion globally as well as in selected geographical regions and in the regions of the various data sources used for EGM2008. In general, GOCE is able to contribute to improved global gravity models in the spherical harmonic range between 120 and 200 (and above). The agreement between EGM2008 and the GOCE models is very good in well-surveyed regions such as North America, Europe and Australia, with geoid RMS-differences on the order of 4–6 cm. In other regions, where the surface gravity data available for the development of EGM2008 were poor, such as South America, Africa, South-East Asia or China the RMS-differences are on a level of 30 cm. Here GOCE leads to a significant improvement. These findings are confirmed by the analysis of the areas of the various EGM2008 data sources. In the regions of the so-called “fill-in” data of EGM2008 RMS-geoid height differences are high. In Antarctica GOCE also gives important improvements in terms of spatial resolution and accuracy. In general, the agreement between EGM2008 and the GOCE-models up to degree and order (d/o) 200 is good, with a global (excluding the polar gaps of GOCE orbits, throughout) geoid difference RMS of 11 cm, in the ocean areas 8 cm and 20 cm in the continental areas. GOCE models are better suited for ocean circulation studies because no prior ocean information enters into the data reduction process, as it is the case when deducing gravity anomalies from an altimetric mean sea surface. On the other hand, the good consistency between GOCE-models and EGM2008 in ocean areas very likely indicates that the influence of ocean circulation information on EGM2008 is rather small. The four tested GOCE models behave similarly except at the highest latitudes where GOCE lacks data due to its orbit inclination of 96.5° and some form of regularization which has to be applied. 相似文献