首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 281 毫秒
1.
Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework   总被引：9，自引：7，他引：2  
The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.  相似文献   

2.
The study addresses disaster risks in Delhi through a resilience approach. It utilizes the Climate Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI) tool, which assesses disaster resilience from five dimensions: physical, social, economic, institutional, and natural. Each dimension comprises 5 parameters, and each parameter consists of 5 variables. The study is carried out in the nine revenue districts of Delhi and reveals that East Delhi is least resilient and New Delhi is most resilient. The CDRI analysis in East Delhi points out the urgent need to focus on key parameters such as housing and land use, population, intensity and frequency of natural hazards, ecosystem services, and land use in natural terms. On the other hand, New Delhi is the most resilient due to all five dimensions, where most significant parameters responsible for its high resilience are housing and land use, population, income, employment, intensity and frequency of natural hazards, ecosystem services, and land use in natural terms. In addition, the overall results of all nine districts show an inverse relationship between resilience score and population density. For example, districts with higher population density show low resilience and vice versa. Moreover, districts located on hazard-prone areas show low resilience. For example, East Delhi and North East Delhi scored low resilience because they both are situated on the Yamuna flood catchment areas. The study further develops key suggestions that are required to address disaster risk in all nine districts of Delhi and discusses future implications of CDRI to address city??s vulnerability. The approach??s distinctness is reflected through its consideration of micro-level diversities and presents some implications to resilience.  相似文献   

3.
The changing number and nature of weather- and climate-related natural hazards is causing more communities to need to assess their vulnerabilities. Vulnerability assessments, however, often require considerable expertise and resources that are not available or too expensive for many communities. To meet the need for an easy-to-use, cost-effective vulnerability assessment tool for communities, a prototype online vulnerability assessment support system was built and tested. This prototype tool guides users through a stakeholder-based vulnerability assessment that breaks the process into four easy-to-implement steps. Data sources are integrated in the online environment so that perceived risks??defined and prioritized qualitatively by users??can be compared and discussed against the impacts that past events have had on the community. The support system is limited in scope, and the locations of the case studies do not provide a sufficiently broad range of sample cases. The addition of more publically available hazard databases combined with future improvements in the support system architecture and software will expand opportunities for testing and fully implementing the support system.  相似文献   

4.
Recognizing the importance of building disaster resilience for education sector, this study aims to develop a methodology to measure the level of educational resilience to cope with natural disasters and is then applied in Central Vietnam. The assessment tool in this paper is developed through a combination of climate disaster resilience indexes and the 16 tasks of Hyogo framework for action designed for education sector. It looks at five dimensions namely physical conditions, human resources, institutional issues, external relationships, and natural conditions, with each dimension characterized by three parameters and five variables. Findings from this study provide important insights into enhancing resilience of the education system in Thua Thien Hue at the provincial, local, and school levels. By giving the overall resilience situation, it can help policy-makers and practitioners in developing an effective plan to increase the level of educational resilience. In addition, it provides the School Management Board with a means to assess the school??s resilience level and set out priorities that need to be focused on with regard to the improvement of school safety and disaster risk reduction education.  相似文献   

5.
Scales as a challenge for vulnerability assessment   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  
The aim of this paper is to introduce scale as a basic tool for improving the conceptual structure of vulnerability assessments. The terminology useful for vulnerability assessments and the current use of scale issues in theoretical vulnerability frameworks will be discussed briefly. Two case studies working on sub-national and on local level will demonstrate problems as well as benefits resulting from scale implications. Both assessments analyse vulnerability in context to river floods in Germany. In order to develop a spatial comparison and to integrate topics like environment and society, vulnerability assessments need to be aware of scale implications. The main point is that a scale debate on a broader spectrum than just in technical spatial terms is missing in vulnerability and risk conceptualisations so far. Vulnerability assessments and scale are highly intertwined, not only in technical application but also in conceptualisation, which needs more scientific development.  相似文献   

6.
Vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation are three fundamentally inter-related concepts among such research communities as global environmental/climatic change, social–ecological and disaster risk science. However, their mutual relationships are still unclear so far particularly in the field of disaster risk reduction, which to some extent blocks the reasonable risk analysis and scientific decision making. This paper performed a brief overview on the basic definitions and evolution processes of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation, and tentatively categorized past diverse thoughts of their relationships into three modalities, such as, vulnerability preference, resilience preference, and overlapped relationships. From a “hit-damage-recovery-learning cycle” insight and based on an empirical case study, we put forward two conceptual frameworks to address the relationships of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation within the disaster risk domain, and we further discussed their broader implications in terms of disaster risk management and social–ecological sustainability. In an attempt to bring together the analytical frameworks of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation, this study indicates that a sustainable adaptation strategy to the unavoidable disasters or changes should not only seek to reduce the vulnerability of a social–ecological system, but also to foster its resilience and adaptive capacity to future uncertainties and potential risks.  相似文献   

7.
灾害恢复力研究进展综述   总被引：18，自引：0，他引：18  
自20世纪以来,随着人口、资源与环境矛盾的日益加深,全球各区域的自然灾害成灾次数、经济损失和受灾人口明显增多,自然灾害灾情不断上升,灾害风险已经成为可持续发展的最大障碍。风险、脆弱性、恢复力和适应性相关的灾害综合管理和减灾作为实施可持续发展的重要途径,已被学术界、经济与社会界予以高度重视。在国际减灾十年（IDNDR）活动、国际减灾战略（ISDR）的相继实施的大背景下,国内外学者兴起了研究灾害脆弱性和恢复力的新一轮热潮。目前国内外对承灾体脆弱性的研究较多,但对于灾害恢复力的恢复力研究才刚刚起步,虽然承灾体的恢复力建设近年来也逐渐被认识到是减灾行动中的一个重要环节。20世纪70年代开始,恢复力这一概念首先从力学被引入生态领域,目前,它已经成为生态、灾害和气候变化等多个学科共同关注的对象。对恢复力的概念发展和国内外目前的研究动态进行了较全面的综述,论述了灾害恢复力的科学价值和重要性,分析了灾害脆弱性与灾害恢复力的关系,总结了恢复力评估的主要方法、特点和难点,并在此基础上对灾害恢复力未来研究进行了展望,提出了研究的关键问题并建议进行更深入的研究。  相似文献   

8.
This paper advocates the use of Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory as a framework to analyse resilience at diverse scales. Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory can be employed to (a) benchmark social resilience, (b) target the priority interventions required and (c) measure progress arising from these interventions to enhance resilience to natural disasters. First, the paper explores resilience to natural disasters in the context of climatic change as building resilience is seen as a way to mitigate impacts of natural disasters. Second, concepts of resilience are systematically examined and documented, outlining resilience as a trait and resilience as a process. Third, issues arising in relation to the measurement of resilience are discussed. Fourth, Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological systems theory is described and proffered to model and assess resilience at different scales. Fifth, studies are described which have supported the use of the bioecological systems theory for the study of resilience. Sixth, an example of the use of Bronfenbrenner’s theory is offered and the paper concludes with suggestions for future research using Bronfenbrenner’s theory.  相似文献   

9.
We developed a model to estimate seismic vulnerability of health facilities in Mexico City, Mexico, following these steps: (1) designing a theoretical framework (TF) to measure structural, non-structural, functional, and administrative-organizational vulnerabilities; (2) measurement of the vulnerability conditions of the analyzed facility by using the TF; and (3) estimation of the hospital’s seismic vulnerability by comparing the measured vulnerability to the TF’s vulnerability indicators by taking into account the optimal case. The TF was developed considering a scoring system and international standards for risk management in hospitals. The methodology establishes the degree of vulnerability of the analyzed institution as well as its interrelations with external infrastructure systems. This tool also identifies existing failures to estimate expected damage. The methodology was applied to the National Cardiology Hospital, the Children’s Hospital “Dr. Federico Gómez,” and the “Hospital de Jesus” of Mexico City. The vulnerability problems in these three hospitals are common within them, and some of the main causes of vulnerability found are: (1) the lack of technology to resistant seismic shaking; (2) the need to develop or update disaster response plans; (3) the need of periodic and proper maintenance to hospitals’ buildings; (4) the lack of sufficient financial resources for vulnerability reduction projects and autonomous operations of the hospital during 3–5 days after a disaster occurs. We believe that vulnerability in these health facilities can be reduced with low-cost procedures and that the methodology developed here will support the decision-making processes to reduce seismic risk in Mexico City.  相似文献   

10.

In the last decades, floods have increased in frequency all over the world due to diverse phenomena such as climate change, extended urbanization, land use, etc. Their social, cultural, economic and environmental impacts have also grown significantly, highlighting the need for the development of further studies and improved methods to manage and mitigate flood risk, mainly in urban areas. Historic sites need particular attention in this field, not only because the high and irreplaceable cultural value of these areas, but also taking into account that the constructive typologies that they host are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In consequence of that, the analysis of the phenomena, the evaluation of their consequences and the adoption of adequate mitigation and preparedness measures are presently a fundamental societal challenge. Having this in mind, the present paper aims at proposing an innovative methodology focused on the assessment of flood vulnerability in historic sites through the evaluation of a set of exposure and sensitivity indicators. From the analysis of these indicators, it is possible to obtain a Flood Vulnerability Index capable of measuring the spread of flood vulnerability over an extended area. The historic centre of Guimarães, in Portugal, declared by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site in 2001, is used here as a pilot case study to apply and discusses the preliminary version of the approach. Although some improvements are still needed, this approach can be already used to provides preliminary vulnerability scenarios and to point the way to the definition of more efficient and customized strategies for managing and mitigating flood risk in historic sites. Moreover, with further improvements and calibrations resorting to larger and more diverse data, it will be possible to reduce some of the uncertainties currently involved in the assessment process and to make its application wider and more robust.

  相似文献   

11.
气候变化适应对策的评价方法和工具   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  
殷永元 《冰川冻土》2002,24(4):426-432
气候变化影响和适应对策方法评估的研究目的主要是建立和应用先进有效的分析工具和评价方法对气候变化脆弱性和适应对策进行科学评估. 因此需要了解当前已经在自然资源和环境研究中广泛使用的决策分析工具,掌握和了解各种适应对策评估工具的关键特性及其优缺点. 首先介绍各种有关适应对策的定义及两大类适应评估方法途径, 同时举例介绍不同方法在气候变化影响和适应评估研究中的应用. 常规的适应对策评估分析主要以政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)气候变化影响和适应对策评估技术指南中的方法工具为代表, 另一种适应对策研究则致力于改善各种对气候变化敏感系统的适应能力和复原能力. 文中对各种适应对策评估方法和工具进行了介绍和讨论,并提出气候变化适应研究的新方向.  相似文献   

12.
Social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards aims to identify vulnerable populations and provide decision makers with scientific basis for their disaster prevention and mitigation decisions. A new method based on remote sensing is presented here to establish a model of social vulnerability for county-scale regions that lack of relative data. To calculate population density, which is the most important indicator in social vulnerability assessment, first, a statistical model is established to estimate the population on village level. Then a new concept defined as “population density based on land use” is created to replace the arithmetic population density. The former has taken the dynamic human distribution related to land use into account; thus, it can map the population distribution more realistically. The other two indicators are age structure and distance to hospital. The application of this method to the Luogang District of Guangzhou, South China demonstrated its capability of providing high spatial resolution and reasonable social vulnerability for social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards.  相似文献   

13.
This paper presents a new method for quantifying vulnerability to natural hazards in China. As an important area of vulnerability research, quantitative assessment of vulnerability has raised much focus in academia. Presently, scholars have proposed a variety of methods for quantitative assessment, which usually create an index of overall vulnerability from a suite of indicators, based on the understanding of the cause or mechanism of vulnerability. However, due to the complex nature of vulnerability, this approach caused some arguments on the indicator selection and the weight set for subindices. A data envelopment analysis?Cbased model for the assessment of the regional vulnerability to natural disasters is presented here to improve upon the traditional methods, and a new approach for the classification of vulnerability is proposed. The vulnerability to natural hazards in China??s mainland is illustrated as a case study. The result shows that the overall level of vulnerability to natural hazards in mainland China is high. The geographic pattern shows that vulnerability is highest in western China, followed by diminishing vulnerability in central China, and lowest vulnerability levels in eastern China. There is a negative correlation between the level of vulnerability and the level of regional economic development.  相似文献   

14.
Facing natural disasters is a priority challenge for cities, exacerbated by increases in urban population and climate change. Improving the resilience of cities is a critical need for the international community and especially for territories exposed to multiple risks, such as Chile. Although disasters are always tragic, the recovery and reconstruction post-disaster may provide a unique opportunity to prevent future suffering, enhancing the resilience of local communities. This paper presents the analysis of two Chilean reconstruction programmes applied in Mehuin and Dichato, after the earthquake and tsunami of 22 May 1960 and 27 February 2010, respectively. In both cases, reconstruction programmes were supported by the Chilean Government, but using different approaches: one focused on providing housing for people injured in the earthquake, while the other also included urban amenities and services. This article proposes an urban morphology analysis framework; in addition, it presents the assessment of the two case studies before and after a disaster, thus evaluating their resilience. By comparing urban morphology resilience pre- and post-disaster, a discussion about the effectiveness of two reconstruction approaches is presented. Finally, conclusions and recommendations to better integrate resilience into urban planning are proposed, with the aim of opening the discussion about how to make cities more resilient to natural disasters.  相似文献   

15.
The article decodes and analyzes the standard functions of social and social-ecological systems when they manage their own vulnerability. The author acknowledges these as “Resilience functions” or “Operational Resilience”. For this purpose, she follows a “Vulnerability Actor” (V Actor)-based approach. V Actor is considered as a system faced with multiple hazards, carrying various vulnerability facets (physical, economic, institutional, etc.) and attempting to transform, transfer, rearrange them in time and space so as to achieve Actor’s own persistence. It is these processes of vulnerability re-arrangement that are identified by the author as Resilience functions and which change the vulnerability not only of the V Actor performing resilience but also others’. Performance of Resilience functions presupposes attraction and employment of resources by the Actor, not only own, current and inherent but also other resources to be found in spatial and temporal scales external to or beyond the Actor but which the Actor can appeal to. This attraction most probably leads to deprivation of others of the necessary resources for their persistence, recovery, etc. When somebody’ vulnerability is reduced sometimes somewhere, it is most probable that others elsewhere are encumbered with extra vulnerability, currently or in the future. Hence, what resilience can only do is vulnerability re-arrangement, re-setting and management. The proposed systemic approach is documented on current state of art regarding interactions between vulnerability and resilience to hazards and on empirical evidence from the international experience of responses to natural hazards.  相似文献   

16.
Motorised transport infrastructure and increasingly specialised labour markets have resulted in energy intensive commuter patterns in many parts of the world. This is cause for concern due to the possibility of oil price shocks and the need to restrict the combustion of fossil fuels to minimise the chances of runaway climate change. The paper investigates methods to identify the spatial distribution and socio-demographic profiles of those who are vulnerable to high oil prices. It does this by use of four metrics of oil vulnerability which were developed using a spatial microsimulation model and applied to the case study region of Yorkshire and the Humber, UK. The metrics capture different aspects of vulnerability and highlight the importance of translating conceptual definitions into practical metrics. The geographically aggregated results coincide with the literature: rural areas are associated with the highest levels of vulnerability. The individual level results indicate that vulnerability can be prevalent even in seemingly resilient areas. Ultimately, we conclude that the social and spatial distribution of oil vulnerability depends on how an energy-constrained future is envisioned. Creating localised metrics about the future is a challenging task fraught with danger but could, provided that these metrics are interpreted with sufficient humility, aid the development of equitable policies to encourage resilience, as part of a worldwide transition away from fossil fuels.  相似文献   

17.
The paper presents contributions to the widespread resilience paradigm from a social science perspective. Certain aspects of social systems, especially their symbolic dimension of meaning, need to be taken into account in the endeavor to research coupled social–ecological systems. Due to the symbolic dimension, disasters are defined as the failure of future expectations, and social resilience is defined as the social system property of avoiding or withstanding disasters. In relation to this, three capacities of social systems (adaptive, coping, and participative) that constitute resilience are presented. The adaptive capacity is the property of a system in which structures are modified to prevent future disasters, whereas the coping capacity is the system’s property of coping with calamitous processes that occurred in the past. The participative capacity is a measure of the system’s ability to change its own structures with regard to interventions by other systems, decreasing the system’s resilience. The concept of resilience provides important epistemological and political insights and can help overcome an orientation tied together with the concept of vulnerability that blocks social capacities for the mitigation of disasters.  相似文献   

18.
Erena  Sitotaw Haile  Worku  Hailu 《Natural Hazards》2019,97(2):495-516

Dire Dawa city is identified as one of the most flood-affected cities in Ethiopia. Classifying village-level flood vulnerability using flood indicators is a new approach to Dire Dawa city. Analysis of different flood vulnerability factors underpins sustainable flood risk management and the application of Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) approach is the hub of this study. Relevant data were collected from 110 households sampled from purposely selected 10 villages found in Dire Dawa city. The flood vulnerability index was used to compare, classify and rank villages in terms of their flood vulnerability levels. For this purpose, 24 sets of indicators which are strongly affecting the levels of flood vulnerability were assessed from social, economic and physical perspectives. The FVI of each village was computed with unequal method of weighting indicators. The findings of the study revealed that Dire Dawa city villages were experiencing varying levels of flood vulnerability. Accordingly, villages 05, 06, 07 and 09 were identified with high flood vulnerability level while villages 03, 04 and 08 and villages 01, 02 and extension village were identified with medium and low level of vulnerability, respectively. Interestingly, the findings of the study confirmed that social factors contributed much for flood vulnerability in Dire Dawa city. Hence, future urban flood risk planning and management endeavors in the city of Dire Dawa must be underpinned by proper utilization of the flood vulnerability map developed addressing social vulnerability component through both structural and non-structural urban flood risk management measures.

  相似文献   

19.
Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical concepts of flood vulnerability and the day-to-day decision-making process and to encapsulate this link in an easily accessible tool. This article focuses on developing a Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index (CCFVI) based on exposure, susceptibility and resilience to coastal flooding. It is applied to nine cities around the world, each with different kinds of exposure. With the aid of this index, it is demonstrated which cities are most vulnerable to coastal flooding with regard to the system??s components, that is, hydro-geological, socio-economic and politico-administrative. The index gives a number from 0 to 1, indicating comparatively low or high coastal flood vulnerability, which shows which cities are most in need of further, more detailed investigation for decision-makers. Once its use to compare the vulnerability of a range of cities under current conditions has been demonstrated, it is used to study the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of these cities over a longer timescale. The results show that CCFVI provides a means of obtaining a broad overview of flood vulnerability and the effect of possible adaptation options. This, in turn, will allow for the direction of resources to more in-depth investigation of the most promising strategies.  相似文献   

20.
Memon  Manzoor Hussain  Ahmed  Rafiq 《Natural Hazards》2022,111(2):1575-1602

Pakistan, being an agro-based economy, is considered most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The country is susceptible to many natural catastrophes and climate-induced events due to intra-geographical and intra-topographical disparities. This paper is an attempt to measure the relative vulnerability of diverse topographies in rural areas of Pakistan using vulnerability and capacity index tool. The results are based on the findings of primary survey data (350 households from 17 rural communities). Accordingly, and as expected, the key relative differences are attributed to topographical conditions besides the basic quandary of rural areas of Pakistan. The topographical attributes are largely linked to the nature of hazards and relative impacts. While the other aspects of vulnerability in all topographies stem out of inappropriate infrastructure, low education, and institutional factors. The absence of multi-sectoral and productive economic opportunities also poses an adverse impact on the resilience of households in rural areas. The women and households headed by females are found relatively more vulnerable than male-headed households.

  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号